AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

Antony Goldman, Santa Cruz, March 2008

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

• Historical context

• External environmentTechnologyStrategic issuesEmerging players

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

• US oil reserves 21.8bn barrelsUS gas reserves 204.4 trillion cubic feet

• Nigeria oil reserves 36.2bn bblsNigeria gas reserves 184.6 tcf

• Algeria oil reserves 12.3bn bblsAlgeria gas reserves 161.7tcf

• Venezuela oil reserves 80.1bn bbls

• Venezuela gas reserves 152.3tcf

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

• OPEC/AFRICA OIL EXPORTStotal of 6.3m b/d in 2006 of which:

• 3.3m b/d to north America

• 2.5m b/d to Europe

• 0.3m b/d to Asia Pacific

AFRICA RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

• World Bank in 2006 estimates India imported 50 per cent of petroleum from Africa, principally Nigeria.

• China imports 25 per cent of crude oil requirement from Africa, increasing at 30 per cent a year. Imports principally from Angola, Sudan, Equatorial Guinea and Congo.

• Source: Africa's Silk Road World Bank 2006

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

Asia’s oil interests in Africa

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

• Financing and loans

• ‘Soft’ power

• Defence co-operation

• Construction and infrastructure

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

NigeriaOil discovered in 1955Produces 2.1m b/dResource control issues in the Niger DeltaDeepwater development – political, securityNew players – independents, indigenous,

AsianProposed reform agenda

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

Outlook:

A more competitive market

Comparative advantage/ language, history

Leveraging governance issues

Africa’s choice