Aflac Incorporate Debt Investors Update€¦ · Page 4 $21.8B 2018 Revenue $34.5B Market Cap 2...

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Aflac Incorporate Debt Investors Update October 2019

Transcript of Aflac Incorporate Debt Investors Update€¦ · Page 4 $21.8B 2018 Revenue $34.5B Market Cap 2...

Page 1: Aflac Incorporate Debt Investors Update€¦ · Page 4 $21.8B 2018 Revenue $34.5B Market Cap 2 Corporate and other 2018 Adjusted Revenues by Business Segment Aflac Japan 69.2% Aflac

Aflac Incorporate Debt Investors Update

October 2019

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The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a “safe harbor” to encourage companies to provide prospective information, so long as those informational statements are identified as forward-looking and are accompanied by meaningful cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. The company desires to take advantage of these provisions. This document contains cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected herein, and in any other statements made by company officials in communications with the financial community and contained in documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Forward-looking statements are not based on historical information and relate to future operations, strategies, financial results or other developments. Furthermore, forward-looking information is subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties. In particular, statements containing words such as “expect,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “goal,” “objective,” “may,” “should,” “estimate,” “intends,” “projects,” “will,” “assumes,” “potential,” “target,” "outlook" or similar words as well as specific projections of future results, generally qualify as forward-looking. Aflac undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking statements.

The company cautions readers that the following factors, in addition to other factors mentioned from time to time, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements:

Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Measures and ReconciliationsIn this presentation, Aflac Incorporated presents certain financial information that is not calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the U.S. (“U.S. GAAP”). These “non-U.S. GAAP financial measures” are meant to be supplemental to the U.S. GAAP measures that Aflac Incorporated presents. Refer to slides “Aflac Japan: Strong, Stable Earnings and Persistency,” “Aflac Has a Track Record of Maintaining Strong Credit Metrics” and the Appendix for definitions of these measures and a reconciliation of the non-U.S. GAAP financial measures used in this presentation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measures

• decreases in the Company’s sales of cancer insurance in the Japan Post Group system

• difficult conditions in global capital markets and the economy• exposure to significant interest rate risk• concentration of business in Japan • foreign currency fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate• limited availability of acceptable yen-denominated investments• U.S. tax audit risk related to conversion of the Japan branch to a subsidiary• deviations in actual experience from pricing and reserving assumptions• ability to continue to develop and implement improvements in information

technology systems• competitive environment and ability to anticipate and respond to market

trends• ability to protect the Aflac brand and the Company's reputation• ability to attract and retain qualified sales associates, brokers, employees,

and distribution partners• interruption in telecommunication, information technology and other

operational systems, or a failure to maintain the security, confidentiality or privacy of sensitive data residing on such systems

• failure to comply with restrictions on patient privacy and information security

• extensive regulation and changes in law or regulation by governmental authorities• tax rates applicable to the Company may change• defaults and credit downgrades of investments• decline in creditworthiness of other financial institutions• significant valuation judgments in determination of amount of impairments taken

on the Company's investments• subsidiaries' ability to pay dividends to the Parent Company• decreases in the Company's financial strength or debt ratings• inherent limitations to risk management policies and procedures• concentration of the Company's investments in any particular single-issuer or

sector• differing judgments applied to investment valuations• ability to effectively manage key executive succession• catastrophic events including, but not necessarily limited to, epidemics,

pandemics, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, war or other military action, terrorism or other acts of violence, and damage incidental to such events

• changes in accounting standards• increased expenses and reduced profitability resulting from changes in

assumptions for pension and other postretirement benefit plans• level and outcome of litigation• allegations or determinations of worker misclassification in the United States

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Business Overview

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$21.8B2018

Revenue

$34.5BMarket

Cap

2 Corporate and other

2018 Adjusted Revenuesby Business Segment

Aflac Japan69.2%

Aflac U.S.29.3%

Aflac Incorporated: Leading Supplemental Insurer1

Aflac Incorporated through its subsidiaries is the leading supplemental insurer in the U.S. and Japan providing a layer of financial protection due to a medical event or critical illness, such as cancer, to more than 50 million people

1.5%2

$2.9B2018 Net Earnings

+19.5%2018 Cash Dividend

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Demand For Third Sector Insurance

Business Profile In 1974, Aflac Japan pioneered cancer insurance in Japan

and launched a standalone whole life medical policy in 2002 Today, our core third sector insurance – cancer and

medical – helps policyholders cover out-of-pocket expenses not covered by Japan's national health insurance system.

Aflac Japan’s third sector product portfolio is complemented by a select offering of first sector protection products

Aflac Japan insures 1 in 4 households2 in Japan and is the #1 cancer and medical insurer3

Strain of rising costs on national healthcare system and individuals for out-of-pocket expenses

Longevity and an aging population Healthcare and medical technology

advancements to add or revise coverage to match the current medical environment

Daido Life • Selling cancer insurance products in SME association market

• Nearly 40,000 Dai-Ichi Life sales representatives offer Aflac Japan cancer insurance products

Dai-ichi Life

Japan Post

• More than 20,000 post offices nationwide selling Aflac Japan cancer insurance products

• Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. offers Aflac cancer insurance products through its 76 branches

Strategic Partners

Traditional Channel

Banks

• Vital for Aflac Japan sales, with over 9,800+ agencies

• Aflac Japan products are represented at 370+ banks, nearly 90% of the total banks in Japan

Core

Expansive Distribution

1 As of 12/31/2018 2 Based on the Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ number of households (as of Jan. 1, 2018) by and the number of households with policies-in-force (as of Jan.2019), calculated using Aflac Japan’s standards; 3 Aflac is the number one insurer in terms of the number of policies in-force for both cancer insurance and medical insurance, according to Statistics of Life Insurance Business in Japan 2018.

Aflac Japan Overview1

Cancer46%

Medical and other health…

Life insuran

ce27%

Third Sector

Cancer46%

Medical and other health

27%

Life insurance

27%

2018 U.S. GAAP Net Earned Premium

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Demand for Supplemental Insurance

Business Profile Aflac is the # 1 provider of supplemental insurance at the

worksite in the U.S.2

~98% of Aflac U.S. Individual and Group sales occur via payroll deduction

Aflac’s supplemental policies pay cash directly to the insured to help protect against rising out-of-pocket expenses when a qualifying medical event occurs

One Day PaySM symbolizes a transformative innovation for Aflac and the industry

Aflac’s vision is to be the number one distributor of benefits solutions supporting the U.S. workforce

Employees seek protection from rising out-of-pocket expenses that accompany medical events

Employers seek affordable yet attractive benefits to attract and retain employees

Accident / disability

46%

Cancer23%

Other health26%

Life insurance

5%

2018 Net Earned Premium

1 As of 12/31/2018 2 Eastbridge Consulting Group, Inc. U.S. Worksite/Voluntary Sales Report. Carrier Results for 2017. Avon, CT: June 2018; Supplemental sales are defined as 100% employee-paid through payroll deduction.

Distribution

Aflac U.S. Overview1

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Agent Broker Expansion

61%63%66%67%69%

37%35%33%32%30%

2%2%1%1%1%

(Sal

esin

$M

)

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Financial Performance

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Aflac Japan Sales: Shift to Third Sector

Aflac Japan Product Mix as % of Total Sales

Strategic shift to third sector products through a combination of new third sector products as well as a natural decrease in first sector savings products in the context of Japan’s low interest rate environment

30.340.4

46.655.8

65.859.6

31.8

26.426.0

34.125.0

30.11.3

2.3 1.81.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

Other

Ordinary Life

WAYS

ChildEndowment

Income Support

Medical

Cancer

Third Sector>90%

of new sales

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Aflac Japan: Shift to Third Sector

Total Expense Ratio (to Total Revenue)

Total Benefit Ratio (to Premium)

Aflac Japan’s benefit and expense ratios also reflect the de-emphasis of first sector savings products and favorable claims experience in our core third sector products among other factors

72.7% 72.3% 72.6% 71.3% 69.9% 69.3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

18.3% 18.2% 18.6% 19.2% 20.3% 20.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

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Aflac Japan: Strong, Stable Earnings and PersistencyPretax Adjusted Earnings1 and Pretax Profit Margin

Premium Persistency (12- Month Rolling)

1 Before management fee. Includes FX conversion associated with Japan’s USD portfolio. All prior period adjusted earnings have been revised for the reclassification of amortized hedge costs for consistency with current period presentation.

94.8% 95.1% 95.2% 94.9% 94.1% 94.2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

¥361,106 ¥375,458¥341,591 ¥343,640 ¥354,201

¥272,646

20.7%21.5%

19.7%20.4%

21.1%21.7%

¥0

¥100,000

¥200,000

¥300,000

¥400,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

Pretax Adjusted Earnings Pretax Profit Margin (Right Axis)

(In millions)

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Aflac U.S. Sales Composition and Distribution

2019 YTD U.S. Sales Aflac U.S. Distribution by Channel

2009

2018

Agent Broker Expansion

6.4%

5.1%

15.8%

20.6%

23.3%

28.9%Accident

Short-Term Disability

Critical Care

Hospital Indemnity

Life

Dental/Vision

86%

14%

61%

37%2%

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Aflac U.S. Investing in the PlatformExpense Ratio (to Total Revenue)

Benefit Ratio (to Premium)

54.7% 53.7% 52.6% 51.9% 50.6% 49.5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

33.0% 34.1% 33.9% 34.3% 35.2% 35.7%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

The elevated expense ratio in the U.S. reflects investments in both Group and Individual platforms

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Aflac U.S.: Strong, Stable Earnings and PersistencyPretax Adjusted Earnings1 and Pretax Profit Margin

Premium Persistency (12-Month Rolling)

1 Before management fee. All prior period adjusted earnings have been revised for the reclassification of amortized hedge costs for consistency with current period presentation.

76.5% 77.3% 78.3% 78.4% 78.7% 78.0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD

$1,073 $1,101$1,208 $1,245 $1,285

$996

18.3% 18.3%19.6% 19.8% 19.9% 20.3%

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

Pretax Adjusted Earnings Pretax Profit Margin (Right Axis)

(In millions)

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Capital Ratios and Strategies

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Strategic Outlook

• Investments: De-risking while defending net investment income

• Margins: Stable profit margins while funding growth and digital initiatives

• Tactical: Building opportunistic capital and reducing enterprise FX exposure

• Accounting: LDTI adoption, rating agency dialogue, and disclosures

• Capital Deployment: Balanced with shift toward growth investments

Guided by Growth & Stability of Economic Value

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Maintaining Strong Capital Ratios is a Top Priority

Solvency Margin Ratio (Japan) Risk-Based Capital Ratio (U.S.)

Maintaining strong capital ratios for the protection of our policyholders is one of Aflac’s highest priorities and consistent with our desire to maintain strong credit ratings

SMR growth reflects strong capital generation of Aflac Japan

RBC is high relative to risk profile; Aflac RBC expected to be at about 500% at year end 2019.

857% 828%

945%

1064%

965%

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

945% 933%894%

831%

560%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

1000%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Regulatory Minimum Requirement 200%

Risk Management Framework Limit 500%

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Cash Flow and Liquidity Management

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Aflac Incorporated’s Liquidity Management Framework

Aflac Incorporated manages liquidity in the context of: Business investment and growth needs Strategic growth objectives Financial flexibility and obligations Capital support for hedging activity Balanced capital allocation and shareholder deployment

3Q19 Aflac Incorporated Liquidity Profile

Cash and Equivalents on Hand Total Liquidity

1 Minimum liquidity held at Incorporated 2 Liquidity to manage collateral and settlements of derivatives at Inc. 3 Excess liquidity that may be deployed to shareholders in the future. 4 ¥55Bn or USD equivalent 5-year revolving credit facility due 2023.

(in millions)

$0$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500

Capital Buffer Liquidity Support Cash Available toShareholders

3Q19 Cash Corporate RevolvingCredit Facility

Aflac IncorporatedLiquidity

1 23 4

$1,000

$1,000

$1,400 $3,400

$500$3,900

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Capital Allocation Framework

Investment in our business and platforms to drive long-term growth and profitability

Share repurchase is currently the benchmark for the use of excess capital, absent compelling alternatives

Support our consistent dividend - 2019 marked Aflac’s 37th

consecutive year of increasing the dividend

Allocate and manage capital in a way that is consistent with our ratings and maintains financial flexibility

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Aflac Credit Strength Highlights

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Aflac Ratings: Insurer Financial Strength and Credit Ratings

Insurance Financial Strength Ratings AM Best S&P Moody’s JCR R&I

Aflac of Columbus A+ A+ Aa3 AA AA-Aflac of New York A+ A+ --- --- ---

Continental American Insurance Company A+ --- --- --- ---

Aflac Life Insurance Japan, Ltd. A+ A+ Aa3 AA AA-

Credit Ratings AM Best S&P Moody’s JCR R&I

Aflac IncorporatedLong-term Senior Debt a- A- A3 A+ AJunior Subordinated Debt bbb+ BBB Baa1 --- BBB+

Aflac of ColumbusLong-term Senior Debt aa- A+ --- AA ---

Aflac Life Insurance Japan, Ltd.Long-term Senior Debt aa- A+ --- AA ---Perpetual Subordinated Bonds --- --- --- A+ ---

The above ratings are provided for informational purposes only. All ratings are solely the opinions of the rating agencies. Neither insurer financial strength nor credit ratings are statements of fact nor are they recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities and may be subject to suspension, reduction or withdrawal at any time by the assigning rating agencies.. The ratings may be changed, superseded or withdrawn by the rating agencies at any time. Revised October 29, 2019The outlook for all ratings assigned by Moody's, and JCR is stable.The outlook for all ratings assigned by AM Best, S&P and R&I is positive.

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Aflac Has a Track Record of Maintaining Strong Credit MetricsLeverage1

Composition of Leverage ($ millions)

1 Adjusted Debt / Adjusted Capitalization. Reflects 50% treatment of subordinated debt.

Aflac Incorporated consistently manages leverage in the 20-25% range and is focused on operating within our investment grade ratings profile

Aflac Incorporated has access to a range of flexible and cost effective financing alternatives to support the Company’s strategic growth objectives

84% 86% 86% 75% 68% 63%

6% 4% 5% 15% 22% 21%10% 9% 13%$5,282 $4,971 $5,360 $5,289 $5,778 $6,233

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q 2019

USD Senior Notes Yen Senior Loans/Notes USD Subordinated Notes Yen Subordinated Debt Lease Obligations

26.5%

24.0%21.9% 21.0%

22.0% 21.8%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q 2019

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Aflac’s Capital Structure and Debt Maturity Profile

Capital Structure and Liquidity Objectives Maintain strong capital ratios and investment grade ratings Support nimble investment in our strategic growth objectives Balanced shareholder distribution policy Defend low cost of capital Optimize yen and dollar financing mix while managing duration Maintain leverage ratios within our current ratings

Debt Maturity Profile ($ milions)1

(1) JPYUSD rate of 107.91 used for all Yen maturities.

350

700 750

450300 220 254

400550

46 556

232 271141 82

278556

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 … 46 47 48 49

USD Senior

Yen (USD Equivalent)

Yen Subordinated/Hybrid Call Date

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: Key Credit Strength Highlights and Industry Leading Ratings

Excellent brand recognition

Leading provider of voluntary insurance in two of the largest markets in the world with competitive advantages across valued products and broad distribution

Conservatively managed balance sheet with balanced capital structure and debt maturity profile

Strong operating performance with diversified revenue streams across products and geographies

Strong cash flow generation, capital ratios, and liquidity capacity supporting the Company’s prudent capital allocation framework and investment grade ratings

High quality, actively managed investment portfolio aligned with the Company’s capital and growth objectives

Strong and successful track record of an experienced executive management team

Highlights of Key Credit Strengths

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Aflac Peers

A2

A3

Baa1

Baa3

Baa2

Ba1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Aflac Peers

A

A-

BBB+

BBB-

BBB

BB+

S&P Ratings vs. Peer Group(1)

Moody’s Ratings vs. Peer Group(1)

(1) Peer Group found in Aflac Proxy (ex. Genworth).

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Appendix

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Aflac Consolidated Portfolio: Composition of Invested Assets1

Composition of Invested Assets (In millions )

Credit Ratings on Fixed Maturities, Ex. Bank Loans

Disciplined investment process

Navigating low yen yields

Dynamic hedging strategy

Growing alternatives

Protecting the portfolio

Strategic investment opportunities

Global Investments is Driving Performance

AAAA AA BBB BB or lower

2013 2015

1.4%

46.7%

23.4%

24.4%

4.1% 1.3% 5.7%

61.0%

26.9%

5.1%

$492

$830

$1,385

$2,065

$4,834

$112,207

1.1% 4.0%

68.8%

22.8%

3.3%

2019 YTD

Transitional Real Estate

Commercial Mortgage Loans

Middle Market Loans

Equity Securities

Alternatives

Fixed Maturities Securities

1 As of September 30, 2019

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Aflac defines the non-U.S. GAAP measures included in this presentation as follows:

• The Company defines adjusted earnings (a non-U.S. GAAP financial measure) as the profits derived from operations. The most comparable U.S. GAAP measure is net earnings. Adjusted earnings are adjusted revenues less benefits and adjusted expenses. The adjustments to both revenues and expenses account for certain items that cannot be predicted or that are outside management’s control. Adjusted revenues are U.S. GAAPtotal revenues excluding realized investment gains and losses, except for amortized hedge costs/income related to foreign currency exposure management strategies and net interest cash flows from derivatives associated with certain investment strategies. Adjusted expenses are U.S. GAAP total acquisition and operating expenses including the impact of interest cash flows from derivatives associated with notes payable but excluding any nonrecurring or other items not associated with the normal course of the Company’s insurance operations and that do not reflect the Company's underlying business performance.

Definitions of Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Measures

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• The Company defines adjusted earnings per share (basic or diluted) to be adjusted earnings for the period divided by the weighted average outstanding shares (basic or diluted) for the period presented. The most comparable U. S. GAAP measure is net earnings per share.

• Amortized hedge costs/income represent costs/income incurred or recognized in using foreign currency forward contracts to hedge certain foreign exchange risks in the company's Japan segment (costs) or in the Corporate and Other segment (income). These amortized hedge costs/income are derived from the difference between the foreign currency spot rate at time of trade inception and the contractual foreign currency forward rate, recognized on a straight line basis over the term of the hedge. There is no comparable U.S. GAAP financial measure for amortized hedge costs/income.

Definitions of Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Measures

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Reconciliation of Net Earnings to Adjusted Earnings1

(Nine months ended September 30)

2019 2018 % Inc.Net earnings $2,523 $2,395 5.3%Items impacting net earnings:

Realized investment (gains) losses 49 (25)Other and non-recurring (income) loss 1 73Income tax (benefit) expense on items excluded from

adjusted earnings (15) (7)Tax reform adjustment4 11

Adjusted earnings $2,558 $2,447 4.5%Current period foreign currency impact2 (2) N/AAdjusted earnings excluding current period foreign currency impact3 $2,556 $2,447 4.5%

1 Amounts may not foot due to rounding. 2 Prior period foreign currency impact reflected as “N/A” to isolate change for current period only.3. Amounts excluding current period foreign currency impact are computed using the average yen/dollar exchange rate for the comparable prior-year period, which eliminates fluctuations driven solely by yen-to-dollar currency rate changes.4An adjustment of $11 million was made in the three- month period ended September 30, 2018, as a result of return-to-provision adjustments and various amended returns filed by the Company

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Aflac Incorporated Organizational Structure and Governance:

Maintaining Governance Best Practices at the Parent and Subsidiary Levels

Aflac Incorporated

Aflac Holdings LLC

American Family Life Assurance Company

of Columbus

Continental American Insurance Company

(Aflac Group)

Aflac Asset Management Aflac International

Aflac Life Insurance Japan Ltd.

(Aflac Japan)

American Family Life Assurance Company

of New York

Aflac Asset Management K.K.

U.S.

Japan