Aflac Incorporate Debt Investors Update€¦ · Page 4 $21.8B 2018 Revenue $34.5B Market Cap 2...
Transcript of Aflac Incorporate Debt Investors Update€¦ · Page 4 $21.8B 2018 Revenue $34.5B Market Cap 2...
Aflac Incorporate Debt Investors Update
October 2019
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The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a “safe harbor” to encourage companies to provide prospective information, so long as those informational statements are identified as forward-looking and are accompanied by meaningful cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. The company desires to take advantage of these provisions. This document contains cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected herein, and in any other statements made by company officials in communications with the financial community and contained in documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Forward-looking statements are not based on historical information and relate to future operations, strategies, financial results or other developments. Furthermore, forward-looking information is subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties. In particular, statements containing words such as “expect,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “goal,” “objective,” “may,” “should,” “estimate,” “intends,” “projects,” “will,” “assumes,” “potential,” “target,” "outlook" or similar words as well as specific projections of future results, generally qualify as forward-looking. Aflac undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking statements.
The company cautions readers that the following factors, in addition to other factors mentioned from time to time, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements:
Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Measures and ReconciliationsIn this presentation, Aflac Incorporated presents certain financial information that is not calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the U.S. (“U.S. GAAP”). These “non-U.S. GAAP financial measures” are meant to be supplemental to the U.S. GAAP measures that Aflac Incorporated presents. Refer to slides “Aflac Japan: Strong, Stable Earnings and Persistency,” “Aflac Has a Track Record of Maintaining Strong Credit Metrics” and the Appendix for definitions of these measures and a reconciliation of the non-U.S. GAAP financial measures used in this presentation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.
Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measures
• decreases in the Company’s sales of cancer insurance in the Japan Post Group system
• difficult conditions in global capital markets and the economy• exposure to significant interest rate risk• concentration of business in Japan • foreign currency fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate• limited availability of acceptable yen-denominated investments• U.S. tax audit risk related to conversion of the Japan branch to a subsidiary• deviations in actual experience from pricing and reserving assumptions• ability to continue to develop and implement improvements in information
technology systems• competitive environment and ability to anticipate and respond to market
trends• ability to protect the Aflac brand and the Company's reputation• ability to attract and retain qualified sales associates, brokers, employees,
and distribution partners• interruption in telecommunication, information technology and other
operational systems, or a failure to maintain the security, confidentiality or privacy of sensitive data residing on such systems
• failure to comply with restrictions on patient privacy and information security
• extensive regulation and changes in law or regulation by governmental authorities• tax rates applicable to the Company may change• defaults and credit downgrades of investments• decline in creditworthiness of other financial institutions• significant valuation judgments in determination of amount of impairments taken
on the Company's investments• subsidiaries' ability to pay dividends to the Parent Company• decreases in the Company's financial strength or debt ratings• inherent limitations to risk management policies and procedures• concentration of the Company's investments in any particular single-issuer or
sector• differing judgments applied to investment valuations• ability to effectively manage key executive succession• catastrophic events including, but not necessarily limited to, epidemics,
pandemics, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, war or other military action, terrorism or other acts of violence, and damage incidental to such events
• changes in accounting standards• increased expenses and reduced profitability resulting from changes in
assumptions for pension and other postretirement benefit plans• level and outcome of litigation• allegations or determinations of worker misclassification in the United States
Business Overview
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$21.8B2018
Revenue
$34.5BMarket
Cap
2 Corporate and other
2018 Adjusted Revenuesby Business Segment
Aflac Japan69.2%
Aflac U.S.29.3%
Aflac Incorporated: Leading Supplemental Insurer1
Aflac Incorporated through its subsidiaries is the leading supplemental insurer in the U.S. and Japan providing a layer of financial protection due to a medical event or critical illness, such as cancer, to more than 50 million people
1.5%2
$2.9B2018 Net Earnings
+19.5%2018 Cash Dividend
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Demand For Third Sector Insurance
Business Profile In 1974, Aflac Japan pioneered cancer insurance in Japan
and launched a standalone whole life medical policy in 2002 Today, our core third sector insurance – cancer and
medical – helps policyholders cover out-of-pocket expenses not covered by Japan's national health insurance system.
Aflac Japan’s third sector product portfolio is complemented by a select offering of first sector protection products
Aflac Japan insures 1 in 4 households2 in Japan and is the #1 cancer and medical insurer3
Strain of rising costs on national healthcare system and individuals for out-of-pocket expenses
Longevity and an aging population Healthcare and medical technology
advancements to add or revise coverage to match the current medical environment
Daido Life • Selling cancer insurance products in SME association market
• Nearly 40,000 Dai-Ichi Life sales representatives offer Aflac Japan cancer insurance products
Dai-ichi Life
Japan Post
• More than 20,000 post offices nationwide selling Aflac Japan cancer insurance products
• Japan Post Insurance Co., Ltd. offers Aflac cancer insurance products through its 76 branches
Strategic Partners
Traditional Channel
Banks
• Vital for Aflac Japan sales, with over 9,800+ agencies
• Aflac Japan products are represented at 370+ banks, nearly 90% of the total banks in Japan
Core
Expansive Distribution
1 As of 12/31/2018 2 Based on the Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ number of households (as of Jan. 1, 2018) by and the number of households with policies-in-force (as of Jan.2019), calculated using Aflac Japan’s standards; 3 Aflac is the number one insurer in terms of the number of policies in-force for both cancer insurance and medical insurance, according to Statistics of Life Insurance Business in Japan 2018.
Aflac Japan Overview1
Cancer46%
Medical and other health…
Life insuran
ce27%
Third Sector
Cancer46%
Medical and other health
27%
Life insurance
27%
2018 U.S. GAAP Net Earned Premium
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Demand for Supplemental Insurance
Business Profile Aflac is the # 1 provider of supplemental insurance at the
worksite in the U.S.2
~98% of Aflac U.S. Individual and Group sales occur via payroll deduction
Aflac’s supplemental policies pay cash directly to the insured to help protect against rising out-of-pocket expenses when a qualifying medical event occurs
One Day PaySM symbolizes a transformative innovation for Aflac and the industry
Aflac’s vision is to be the number one distributor of benefits solutions supporting the U.S. workforce
Employees seek protection from rising out-of-pocket expenses that accompany medical events
Employers seek affordable yet attractive benefits to attract and retain employees
Accident / disability
46%
Cancer23%
Other health26%
Life insurance
5%
2018 Net Earned Premium
1 As of 12/31/2018 2 Eastbridge Consulting Group, Inc. U.S. Worksite/Voluntary Sales Report. Carrier Results for 2017. Avon, CT: June 2018; Supplemental sales are defined as 100% employee-paid through payroll deduction.
Distribution
Aflac U.S. Overview1
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Agent Broker Expansion
61%63%66%67%69%
37%35%33%32%30%
2%2%1%1%1%
(Sal
esin
$M
)
Financial Performance
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Aflac Japan Sales: Shift to Third Sector
Aflac Japan Product Mix as % of Total Sales
Strategic shift to third sector products through a combination of new third sector products as well as a natural decrease in first sector savings products in the context of Japan’s low interest rate environment
30.340.4
46.655.8
65.859.6
31.8
26.426.0
34.125.0
30.11.3
2.3 1.81.1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
Other
Ordinary Life
WAYS
ChildEndowment
Income Support
Medical
Cancer
Third Sector>90%
of new sales
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Aflac Japan: Shift to Third Sector
Total Expense Ratio (to Total Revenue)
Total Benefit Ratio (to Premium)
Aflac Japan’s benefit and expense ratios also reflect the de-emphasis of first sector savings products and favorable claims experience in our core third sector products among other factors
72.7% 72.3% 72.6% 71.3% 69.9% 69.3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
18.3% 18.2% 18.6% 19.2% 20.3% 20.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
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Aflac Japan: Strong, Stable Earnings and PersistencyPretax Adjusted Earnings1 and Pretax Profit Margin
Premium Persistency (12- Month Rolling)
1 Before management fee. Includes FX conversion associated with Japan’s USD portfolio. All prior period adjusted earnings have been revised for the reclassification of amortized hedge costs for consistency with current period presentation.
94.8% 95.1% 95.2% 94.9% 94.1% 94.2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
¥361,106 ¥375,458¥341,591 ¥343,640 ¥354,201
¥272,646
20.7%21.5%
19.7%20.4%
21.1%21.7%
¥0
¥100,000
¥200,000
¥300,000
¥400,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
Pretax Adjusted Earnings Pretax Profit Margin (Right Axis)
(In millions)
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Aflac U.S. Sales Composition and Distribution
2019 YTD U.S. Sales Aflac U.S. Distribution by Channel
2009
2018
Agent Broker Expansion
6.4%
5.1%
15.8%
20.6%
23.3%
28.9%Accident
Short-Term Disability
Critical Care
Hospital Indemnity
Life
Dental/Vision
86%
14%
61%
37%2%
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Aflac U.S. Investing in the PlatformExpense Ratio (to Total Revenue)
Benefit Ratio (to Premium)
54.7% 53.7% 52.6% 51.9% 50.6% 49.5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
33.0% 34.1% 33.9% 34.3% 35.2% 35.7%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
The elevated expense ratio in the U.S. reflects investments in both Group and Individual platforms
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Aflac U.S.: Strong, Stable Earnings and PersistencyPretax Adjusted Earnings1 and Pretax Profit Margin
Premium Persistency (12-Month Rolling)
1 Before management fee. All prior period adjusted earnings have been revised for the reclassification of amortized hedge costs for consistency with current period presentation.
76.5% 77.3% 78.3% 78.4% 78.7% 78.0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
$1,073 $1,101$1,208 $1,245 $1,285
$996
18.3% 18.3%19.6% 19.8% 19.9% 20.3%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
Pretax Adjusted Earnings Pretax Profit Margin (Right Axis)
(In millions)
Capital Ratios and Strategies
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Strategic Outlook
• Investments: De-risking while defending net investment income
• Margins: Stable profit margins while funding growth and digital initiatives
• Tactical: Building opportunistic capital and reducing enterprise FX exposure
• Accounting: LDTI adoption, rating agency dialogue, and disclosures
• Capital Deployment: Balanced with shift toward growth investments
Guided by Growth & Stability of Economic Value
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Maintaining Strong Capital Ratios is a Top Priority
Solvency Margin Ratio (Japan) Risk-Based Capital Ratio (U.S.)
Maintaining strong capital ratios for the protection of our policyholders is one of Aflac’s highest priorities and consistent with our desire to maintain strong credit ratings
SMR growth reflects strong capital generation of Aflac Japan
RBC is high relative to risk profile; Aflac RBC expected to be at about 500% at year end 2019.
857% 828%
945%
1064%
965%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
945% 933%894%
831%
560%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
1000%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Regulatory Minimum Requirement 200%
Risk Management Framework Limit 500%
Cash Flow and Liquidity Management
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Aflac Incorporated’s Liquidity Management Framework
Aflac Incorporated manages liquidity in the context of: Business investment and growth needs Strategic growth objectives Financial flexibility and obligations Capital support for hedging activity Balanced capital allocation and shareholder deployment
3Q19 Aflac Incorporated Liquidity Profile
Cash and Equivalents on Hand Total Liquidity
1 Minimum liquidity held at Incorporated 2 Liquidity to manage collateral and settlements of derivatives at Inc. 3 Excess liquidity that may be deployed to shareholders in the future. 4 ¥55Bn or USD equivalent 5-year revolving credit facility due 2023.
(in millions)
$0$500
$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500
Capital Buffer Liquidity Support Cash Available toShareholders
3Q19 Cash Corporate RevolvingCredit Facility
Aflac IncorporatedLiquidity
1 23 4
$1,000
$1,000
$1,400 $3,400
$500$3,900
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Capital Allocation Framework
Investment in our business and platforms to drive long-term growth and profitability
Share repurchase is currently the benchmark for the use of excess capital, absent compelling alternatives
Support our consistent dividend - 2019 marked Aflac’s 37th
consecutive year of increasing the dividend
Allocate and manage capital in a way that is consistent with our ratings and maintains financial flexibility
Aflac Credit Strength Highlights
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Aflac Ratings: Insurer Financial Strength and Credit Ratings
Insurance Financial Strength Ratings AM Best S&P Moody’s JCR R&I
Aflac of Columbus A+ A+ Aa3 AA AA-Aflac of New York A+ A+ --- --- ---
Continental American Insurance Company A+ --- --- --- ---
Aflac Life Insurance Japan, Ltd. A+ A+ Aa3 AA AA-
Credit Ratings AM Best S&P Moody’s JCR R&I
Aflac IncorporatedLong-term Senior Debt a- A- A3 A+ AJunior Subordinated Debt bbb+ BBB Baa1 --- BBB+
Aflac of ColumbusLong-term Senior Debt aa- A+ --- AA ---
Aflac Life Insurance Japan, Ltd.Long-term Senior Debt aa- A+ --- AA ---Perpetual Subordinated Bonds --- --- --- A+ ---
The above ratings are provided for informational purposes only. All ratings are solely the opinions of the rating agencies. Neither insurer financial strength nor credit ratings are statements of fact nor are they recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities and may be subject to suspension, reduction or withdrawal at any time by the assigning rating agencies.. The ratings may be changed, superseded or withdrawn by the rating agencies at any time. Revised October 29, 2019The outlook for all ratings assigned by Moody's, and JCR is stable.The outlook for all ratings assigned by AM Best, S&P and R&I is positive.
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Aflac Has a Track Record of Maintaining Strong Credit MetricsLeverage1
Composition of Leverage ($ millions)
1 Adjusted Debt / Adjusted Capitalization. Reflects 50% treatment of subordinated debt.
Aflac Incorporated consistently manages leverage in the 20-25% range and is focused on operating within our investment grade ratings profile
Aflac Incorporated has access to a range of flexible and cost effective financing alternatives to support the Company’s strategic growth objectives
84% 86% 86% 75% 68% 63%
6% 4% 5% 15% 22% 21%10% 9% 13%$5,282 $4,971 $5,360 $5,289 $5,778 $6,233
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q 2019
USD Senior Notes Yen Senior Loans/Notes USD Subordinated Notes Yen Subordinated Debt Lease Obligations
26.5%
24.0%21.9% 21.0%
22.0% 21.8%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3Q 2019
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Aflac’s Capital Structure and Debt Maturity Profile
Capital Structure and Liquidity Objectives Maintain strong capital ratios and investment grade ratings Support nimble investment in our strategic growth objectives Balanced shareholder distribution policy Defend low cost of capital Optimize yen and dollar financing mix while managing duration Maintain leverage ratios within our current ratings
Debt Maturity Profile ($ milions)1
(1) JPYUSD rate of 107.91 used for all Yen maturities.
350
700 750
450300 220 254
400550
46 556
232 271141 82
278556
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 … 46 47 48 49
USD Senior
Yen (USD Equivalent)
Yen Subordinated/Hybrid Call Date
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: Key Credit Strength Highlights and Industry Leading Ratings
Excellent brand recognition
Leading provider of voluntary insurance in two of the largest markets in the world with competitive advantages across valued products and broad distribution
Conservatively managed balance sheet with balanced capital structure and debt maturity profile
Strong operating performance with diversified revenue streams across products and geographies
Strong cash flow generation, capital ratios, and liquidity capacity supporting the Company’s prudent capital allocation framework and investment grade ratings
High quality, actively managed investment portfolio aligned with the Company’s capital and growth objectives
Strong and successful track record of an experienced executive management team
Highlights of Key Credit Strengths
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Aflac Peers
A2
A3
Baa1
Baa3
Baa2
Ba1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Aflac Peers
A
A-
BBB+
BBB-
BBB
BB+
S&P Ratings vs. Peer Group(1)
Moody’s Ratings vs. Peer Group(1)
(1) Peer Group found in Aflac Proxy (ex. Genworth).
Appendix
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Aflac Consolidated Portfolio: Composition of Invested Assets1
Composition of Invested Assets (In millions )
Credit Ratings on Fixed Maturities, Ex. Bank Loans
Disciplined investment process
Navigating low yen yields
Dynamic hedging strategy
Growing alternatives
Protecting the portfolio
Strategic investment opportunities
Global Investments is Driving Performance
AAAA AA BBB BB or lower
2013 2015
1.4%
46.7%
23.4%
24.4%
4.1% 1.3% 5.7%
61.0%
26.9%
5.1%
$492
$830
$1,385
$2,065
$4,834
$112,207
1.1% 4.0%
68.8%
22.8%
3.3%
2019 YTD
Transitional Real Estate
Commercial Mortgage Loans
Middle Market Loans
Equity Securities
Alternatives
Fixed Maturities Securities
1 As of September 30, 2019
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Aflac defines the non-U.S. GAAP measures included in this presentation as follows:
• The Company defines adjusted earnings (a non-U.S. GAAP financial measure) as the profits derived from operations. The most comparable U.S. GAAP measure is net earnings. Adjusted earnings are adjusted revenues less benefits and adjusted expenses. The adjustments to both revenues and expenses account for certain items that cannot be predicted or that are outside management’s control. Adjusted revenues are U.S. GAAPtotal revenues excluding realized investment gains and losses, except for amortized hedge costs/income related to foreign currency exposure management strategies and net interest cash flows from derivatives associated with certain investment strategies. Adjusted expenses are U.S. GAAP total acquisition and operating expenses including the impact of interest cash flows from derivatives associated with notes payable but excluding any nonrecurring or other items not associated with the normal course of the Company’s insurance operations and that do not reflect the Company's underlying business performance.
Definitions of Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Measures
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• The Company defines adjusted earnings per share (basic or diluted) to be adjusted earnings for the period divided by the weighted average outstanding shares (basic or diluted) for the period presented. The most comparable U. S. GAAP measure is net earnings per share.
• Amortized hedge costs/income represent costs/income incurred or recognized in using foreign currency forward contracts to hedge certain foreign exchange risks in the company's Japan segment (costs) or in the Corporate and Other segment (income). These amortized hedge costs/income are derived from the difference between the foreign currency spot rate at time of trade inception and the contractual foreign currency forward rate, recognized on a straight line basis over the term of the hedge. There is no comparable U.S. GAAP financial measure for amortized hedge costs/income.
Definitions of Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Measures
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Reconciliation of Net Earnings to Adjusted Earnings1
(Nine months ended September 30)
2019 2018 % Inc.Net earnings $2,523 $2,395 5.3%Items impacting net earnings:
Realized investment (gains) losses 49 (25)Other and non-recurring (income) loss 1 73Income tax (benefit) expense on items excluded from
adjusted earnings (15) (7)Tax reform adjustment4 11
Adjusted earnings $2,558 $2,447 4.5%Current period foreign currency impact2 (2) N/AAdjusted earnings excluding current period foreign currency impact3 $2,556 $2,447 4.5%
1 Amounts may not foot due to rounding. 2 Prior period foreign currency impact reflected as “N/A” to isolate change for current period only.3. Amounts excluding current period foreign currency impact are computed using the average yen/dollar exchange rate for the comparable prior-year period, which eliminates fluctuations driven solely by yen-to-dollar currency rate changes.4An adjustment of $11 million was made in the three- month period ended September 30, 2018, as a result of return-to-provision adjustments and various amended returns filed by the Company
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Aflac Incorporated Organizational Structure and Governance:
Maintaining Governance Best Practices at the Parent and Subsidiary Levels
Aflac Incorporated
Aflac Holdings LLC
American Family Life Assurance Company
of Columbus
Continental American Insurance Company
(Aflac Group)
Aflac Asset Management Aflac International
Aflac Life Insurance Japan Ltd.
(Aflac Japan)
American Family Life Assurance Company
of New York
Aflac Asset Management K.K.
U.S.
Japan