Afghan War Notes

7/29/2019 Afghan War Notes

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GP Content Notes Terrorism

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The arguments for:

1. Fueled by $100 million per year raked offfrom the opium trade, the Taliban havecarried out some 30 percent more attacksthan in 2007, and they have become

active in the environs of Kabul. Boostingtroop numbers can help blunt this Talibano f fens ive and enab le Amer ican ,International Security Assistance Force(ISAF), and Afghan government forces toregain the ini t iat ive. Hel icopters,surveillance drones, military police, andother specialized troops are sorelyneeded, American commanders say.

2. The Afghan army and police are too weakto handle the situation, while NATOpartners are reluctant to boost theircommitments. So sending more U.S.troops looks like the only option.

3. Instability in Pakistan and the need tocombat al Qaeda make it essential tomaintain a strong U.S. presence in theregion.

Arguments against:1. The United States and the world are goingthrough the biggest financial crisis in 75 years, and we do not yet know how it will play out. Signs of animpending recession are everywhere. Prudence dictates that we refrain from making new investments oftroops, equipment, and money until the uncertainty passes.

2. Every foreign soldier who enters Afghanistan provides one more incentive for Afghans to join theinsurgency against the foreigners. The Afghans have a track record of driving out foreign occupiers. Thepresence of American and allied troops combating a religion-based insurgency (of course, also a narco-insurgency) in a Muslim country is a standing provocation to many Muslims worldwide, so fighting this warloses good will and gives young Muslims a reason to join anti-American groups.

3. The real threat to the United States is al Qaeda, not the Taliban; and al Qaeda is in Pakistan, notAfghanistan. So we are fighting against the wrong enemy and in the wrong country. We need to pressurethe Pakistanis to root out al Qaeda.4. Plenty of Afghans hate the Taliban. We could withdraw and let the two sides fight it out, perhaps lendingair support to the anti-Taliban forces. In 2001 the Northern Alliance, with the assistance of the U.S. AirForce, swiftly defeated the Taliban, who were much more dominant than they are now. Of course, thisoption accepts the possibility of the resurgence of warlords and the decline of liberal democracy inAfghanistan, though other outcomes could emerge.So there are arguments on both sides. Even as one recognizes the power of the arguments againstescalation, one must grant the validity of American generals desire to obtain the troops needed to fightthe war as it is presently conceived.

The future surely holds surprises. Perhaps the current efforts by the Saudis and others to broker asettlement between the Afghan Government and the Taliban will work. Perhaps the global financial crisis willlead to a sharp drop-off in demand for opium, thereby cutting the Talibans revenue and forcing them tocurtail operations. Or the Government of Afghanistan, riddled with corruption, may implode, leaving the U.S.and its allies defending the non-Taliban parts of the country as they waver between warlordism and chaos.So uncertainty about the future of Afghanistans political system runs parallel to uncertainty about the global

financial crisis and its economic consequences. On balance, and in such circumstances, it seems wise to



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refrain from escalation, at a minimum until we know better what to expect.Afghanistan is on the other side of the world from the United States, and its culture and history may destine itto a very different fate than we might wish. The arguments for freezing plans to escalate in reality appear toconstitute a telling case for withdrawal.


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