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Advances and prospects on monitoring and modeling of Drosophila suzukii in Europe Wdenswil, Switzerland 26-27 March 2013 COST-Action FA 1104 Meeting WG3 Crop Protection Development of monitoring and GIS systems to assess distribution and diffusion of D. suzukii Alessandro Cini, UPMC, FEM & Gianfranco Anfora, FEM cini.ales@gmail.com Slide 2 Whats going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO -Alberto Grassi, Gianfranco Anfora (FEM, Trento) alberto.grassi@fmach.it Whats going to happen in the future? -MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) -Markus Neteler, Duccio Rocchini, Gianfranco Anfora (FEM, Trento) markus.neteler@fmach.it Where did the pest arrive and spread? -TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION -Alessio Papini, Ugo Santuososso (Univ. of Florence) cini.ales@gmail.com Talk overview Slide 3 Whats going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO -Alberto Grassi, Gianfranco Anfora (FEM, Trento) alberto.grassi@fmach.it Talk overview Slide 4 Apple vinegar Seasonal dynamics of D. suzukii captures in Trentino APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. # ADULTS / TRAP / WEEK 2012: 77 TRAPS 29700 ADULTS CAUGHT 386 ADULTS/TRAP MONITORING Slide 5 2012: 36850 fruits analysed: 3780 were infected (10%-16% in 2011) MONITORING Slide 6 Winter Winter-SpringSummer Mean daily temp. (C) San Michele Why a reduced population growth in 2012? Mass trapping (about 50000 traps) Sanitation procedures Better tuned used of chemicals a- PREVENTION AND CONTROL PROCEDURES b- CLIMATE b a Slide 7 - Lower Temperatures - Fewer precipitations Total Rain (mm) 21- Dec/ 20 March 2010308 2011215,4 201250,2 CLIMATE winter A more difficult winter for flies? Possible increase in mortality of OVERWINTERING individuals High mortality of spontaneous blueberry plants in the wild (blueberry is a summer host of SWD) Mean daily temp. (C) San Michele MONITORING Slide 8 260 DD 25 March: 260 DD (First activity of OW females) 1)Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921) Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) CLIMATE Winter/Spring.1 MONITORING Slide 9 260 DD 25 March: 260 DD (First activity of OW females) 1)Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921) Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) A strong stimulus for adults to leave overwintering site and exit the diapause. Confirmation of movements in the lowlands CLIMATE Winter/Spring.1 Week #DateCatches 927/2-4/31 1219-25/31 1326/3-1/43 + 2 142-8/46 + 6 MONITORING Slide 10 260 DD 25 March: 260 DD (First activity of OW females) 1)Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921) Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) A strong stimulus for adults to leave overwintering site and exit the diapause. CLIMATE Winter/Spring.2 2) Rapid drop of temp. slow down of DD accumulation Interference with already active individuals ? Relevant decrease in cherries prodution (both cultivated and spontaneous) ca 60%. Effects on first generations development? MONITORING Slide 11 260 DD 25 March: 260 DD (First activity of OW females) 1)Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and whole March (the warmest March since 1921) Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD) Likely, a strong stimulus for adults to leave overwrintering site and exit the diapause. CLIMATE Winter/Spring.2 2) Rapid drop-down of temp slow down of DD accumulation Interference with already active individuals ? Relevant decrease in cherries prodution (both cultivated and spontaneous) ca 60%. Effects on first generations development? Mean # adults/trap/week on cherries (July- weeks 26-31) 262728293031tot 201100,60,72,66,42737 2012000,40,150,957,128,6 Supported by a delayed and reduced presence on cherries (FIRST KEY HOST) MONITORING Slide 12 - Stasis in population growth: a critical period for SWD? CLIMATE- Summer MONITORING Slide 13 - Increase in average temperatures - Higher max temp. in 2012 - Reduced precipitations S. MICHELE (205 m) PERGINE (475 m) YEARCWEEKCWEEK 201032.53332.133 201135.73334.833 201236.53436.234 - Stasis in population growth: a critical period for SWD? CLIMATE- Summer MONITORING Slide 14 Stasis in population growth: A critical period for SWD? FATTORI CLIMATICI estate - Increase in average temperatures - Higher max temp in 2012 - Reduced precipitations S. MICHELE (205 m) PERGINE (475 m) YEARCWEEKCWEEK 201032.53332.133 201135.73334.833 201236.53436.234 Reduction in available males for mating? Reduction in reproduction Reduced pop. growth & reduced infestations? FEMALE BIASED SEX RATIO MONITORING Slide 15 Winter Winter-SpringSummer Mean daily temp. (C) San Michele Colder & drier Precocious activation followed by unusual late cold climate Higher max Temp. Summer matings OW OW / First generations Why a reduced population growth in 2012? MONITORING Slide 16 DROSKIDRINK in RED BOTTLES: A HIGH-PERFORMANCE TRAP 77 TRAPS 29700 ADULTS CAUGHT 386 ADULTS/TRAP 55 TRAPS 62100 ADULTS CAUGHT 1129 ADULTS/TRAP DROSKIDRINK APPLE VINEGAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. # ADULST / TRAP / WEEK MONITORING Slide 17 Whats going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO Whats going to happen in the future? -MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) Talk overview Slide 18 MODELING MODIS satellite sensor derived LST maps microclimatic characteristics peculiar to complex terrains, which would not be visible in maps commonly derived from interpolated meteorological station data. Reconstructed daily land surface temperature (LST) data from satellites have been successfully used to predict areas of short term invasion of the invasive species [e.g. tiger mosquito, Neteler et al., 2011; Roiz et al., 2011) Land Surface Temperature (LST) maps allow temperature-based indicators to be derived in a GIS framework. We coupled information from DD models (Damus 2009, Coop 2010) with Modis derived LSt map with a GIS approach. To build predictive model with high resolution at the local geographic scale - First egg laying; first emergence Slide 19 FIRST EGG LAYING BY FEMALES MODELING Field data from 2011 show good overal fit with the produced map 2011 Slide 20 FIRST ADULTS EMERGENCE MODELING Field data from 2011 show good overal fit with the produced map 2011 Slide 21 2012 MODELING Slide 22 2012 Again, good overall fit with field data from 2012 Slide 23 Whats going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO Whats going to happen in the future? -MODELLING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) Where did the pest arrive and spread? -TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION Talk overview Slide 24 Tracking the origin of introduction in Europe TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Calabria et al. 2012 Cini et al. 2012 -Understanding the introduction pathways -preventing new/recurrent colonization Simultaneous reports from Italy and Spain Slide 25 Geographic profiling: a new technique to identify the probable spreading center TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN The Geographic Profiling function generates a surface where each pixel has a different priority score indicating the optimal search pattern for the sources of invasive species (Stevenson et al. 2012). Gp outperforms traditional techniques to find source population of invasive species (Stevenson et al. 2012). Slide 26 Geoprofiling approach Parameters: from Stevenson et al. 2012 Python program Geoprof1_3.py TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Data: C. Baroffio, A. Escudero + published reports and papers (e.g. Calabria et al., 2012, Suss & Costanzi 2011 ) Spatial resolution: Heterogeneity in reports not possible to use GPS data standardized using a 30X30 km grid. One point per cell. Temporal resolution: we used presence data for years from 2008 to 2010 and 2008 to 2011. Before 2010 too few data to produced reliable results, after 2012 too much data: high monitoring campaign in some but not all region. The early post invasion period is crucial. More than 70 locations (2008-2010) and more than 100 (2008-2011) Slide 27 TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN 2008 2010 distribution Slide 28 TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN 2008 2010 distribution Red=95% Yellow=90% Slide 29 TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN 2008 2010 distribution Variation in algorithm parameters changes the area but not the localization Red=95% Yellow=90% Slide 30 TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN 2008 2011 distribution Again, slightly different area but same localization Slide 31 Only those countries where SWD is reported. e.g. China, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, India.... TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Slide 32 FRUIT TRADE FROM EAST ASIA TO EUROPE: import of SWD host fresh fruits Slide 33 TRACKING THE SPREAD ORIGIN Propagule pressure (tons of potentially infested hosts imported) is higher in France FRUIT TRADE FROM EAST ASIA TO EUROPE: import of SWD host fresh fruits Slide 34 Whats going on in Trentino? -MONITORING IN TRENTINO -Importance of climate; support for modelling, new trap protocol Whats going to happen in the future? -MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino) -GIS based predictive model can be reliable, but should be implemented Where did the pest arrive and spread? -TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION - France as origin of spread? prioritizing investigation areas for population genetics Talk overview Slide 35 Thanks for your attention