Advanced Systems and Concepts Office

Apr 19, 2023

What are National Security Threats?2nd Annual JTAC Workshop4 April 2006

ASCO and DTRA Update and Welcome

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

Richard Gullickson, Director, ASCORichard.gullickson@dtra.mil

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office

Apr 19, 2023

Message

• National strategy focuses on understanding adversaries

• Threat Anticipation emphasized in QDR

• Adversary “deterrence calculus” key element of STRATCOM strategy deterrence assessment process

• TAP makes important contribution to DTRA Campaign 6: Global Situational Awareness

• Importance of international partnership with Australia

National Policy Shapes ASCO Portfolio

• Policy themes:

Prevention: Anticipate threats

• Know your adversary• Cultural and social

network understanding• Deterring terrorism

Nuclear proliferation• Nuclear terrorism• Cooperative interdiction

Disruptive technologies• Technical surprise• Advanced bio threat• Knowledge

transformation Expanded DoD roles

• Enabling HD/HSLow now, but rapidly increasing

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office

Apr 19, 2023

CWC

BWC

DTRA is a Combat Support Agency Focused on Combating WMD

Nonproliferation Counterproliferation ConsequenceManagement

Stopped byThreat Control &Threat Reduction

Stopped byDeterrence Stopped by

Counterforce &Elimination

Stopped byActive

Defense

Stopped byPassiveDefense

ConsequenceManagementRestorationOperations

National Strategy

Stopped byInterdiction

QDR Emphasis:Proliferation Prevention

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office

Apr 19, 2023

DIRECTOR Deputy Director

DIRECTOR Deputy Director

Advanced Systems Advanced Systems & Concepts Office& Concepts Office

Threat Reduction Advisory Committee

USD(AT& L)USD(AT& L)

DDR&EDDR&E

JCSJCS

Threat Anticipation Supports Global Situational Awareness

ATSD(NCB)

STRATCOM CenterFor Combating Weapons

of Mass Destruction

STRATSTRAT

Operations R&DControl WMD Materials and Systems Worldwide

Business Excellence

Protect the Homeland Against Catastrophic WMD threats

Business

DoD Center for Global WMD Situational Awareness

Remove WMD threat to the warfighter

Deterrence Transformation

ASCO BODASCO BODOSD-POSD-P

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office

Apr 19, 2023

ASCO Projects Have Long Term Strategic Impact

Time

Resources

UNM

SARS Quarantine Table Top Exercise

Homeland Defense2008

Risk Management In New Strategic Framework

Future MilitaryConflict

Impact ofFuture

Technology

Threat AnticipationUniversityStrategic

Partnership

StrategicCrisis

Management

2015-2025

IranianWMD

Future WMDStrategic

Deterrence

Iraqi Virtual Science Library

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office

Apr 19, 2023

New Directions in Threat Anticipation

Results• Analyzed Al Qaeda's decision making

strategy post-Iraq War• Identified soft US mideast sites as

their primary goals prior to May attacks

• Agent-based model supports Joint Staff

• Assessment of Indonesian stability with Australian, PACOM collaboration

Objective

• Understand and anticipate adversary behavior, motivations, world views

Elements

• Integrate computational and social sciences

• 2 prototype models: one traditional agent-based, and one using a novel approach

• Joint Threat Anticipation Center at UC, ANL

• Verification and validation

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office

Apr 19, 2023

University Strategic Partnership

Solving DTRA Problems

StrategicPartnership

Innovative Research

Initiative in CWMD

Student Research Associate Program

NC A&TFlorida A&M

University of New Mexico

He2* Metastable Cluster

Advanced Systems and Concepts Office

Apr 19, 2023

Summary

• Threat anticipation is key element of national strategy

• Substantial emphasis on verification and validation

• Importance of partnerships

Australia

University strategic partnership