Advanced Review Climate change in Switzerland: a review of ...raible/wcc280.pdf · Climate change...

Advanced Review

Climate change in Switzerland:a review of physical, institutional,and political aspectsStefan Brönnimann,1,2∗ Christof Appenzeller,3,4 MischaCroci-Maspoli,3,4 Jürg Fuhrer,2,5 Martin Grosjean,1,2 RolandHohmann,6 Karin Ingold,2,7 Reto Knutti,4,8 Mark A. Liniger,3,4

Christoph C. Raible,2,9 Regine Röthlisberger,6 Christoph Schär,4,8

Simon C. Scherrer,3,4 Kuno Strassmann2 and Philippe Thalmann2,10

Climate change is clearly discernible in observed climate records in Switzerland.It impacts on natural systems, ecosystems, and economic sectors such as agri-culture, tourism, and energy, and it affects Swiss livelihood in various ways. Theobserved and projected changes call for a response from the political system, whichin Switzerland is characterized by federalism and direct democratic instruments.Swiss climate science embraces natural and social sciences and builds on insti-tutionalized links between researchers, public, and private stakeholders. In thisarticle, we review the physical, institutional, and political aspects of climate changein Switzerland. We show how the current state of Swiss climate science and policydeveloped over the past 20 years in the context of international developments andnational responses. Specific to Switzerland is its topographic setting with moun-tain regions and lowlands on both sides of the Alpine ridge, which makes climatechange clearly apparent and for some aspects (tourist sector, hydropower, andextreme events) highly relevant and better perceivable (e.g., retreating glaciers).Not surprisingly the Alpine region is of central interest in Swiss climate changestudies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

How to cite this article:WIREs Clim Change 2014. doi: 10.1002/wcc.280

∗Correspondence to: [email protected] of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland2Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern,Bern, Switzerland3Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss,Zürich, Switzerland4Center for Climate System Modeling C2SM, ETH Zürich, Zürich,Switzerland5Agroscope, Climate/Air Pollution Research Group, Zürich,Switzerland6Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN), Bern, Switzerland7Institute of Political Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland8Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich,Zürich, Switzerland9Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University ofBern, Bern, Switzerland

INTRODUCTION

The annual mean air temperature in Switzerlandhas increased by 1.75∘C between 1864 and 2012

and is projected to rise more strongly until the endof the century, accompanied by changes in other vari-ables such as precipitation, snow cover, and runoff.What does climate change mean for Switzerland andhow does Switzerland deal with it? In this paper wereview published literature concerned with observedand projected climatic changes in Switzerland, theirimpacts, policy and politics of climate change, and

10Economics and Environmental Management Laboratory, ÉcolePolytechnique Federal de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland

Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts ofinterest for this article.

© 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Advanced Review wires.wiley.com/climatechange

the public perception. We discuss physical, politi-cal, and institutional aspects of climate change andshow that climate change in all its facets affects liveli-hood in Switzerland: Impacts (e.g., on the water cycle,cryosphere, and biodiversity) are discernible and areprojected to continue or aggravate. The political sys-tem addresses climate change issues by developingstrategies and measures for both mitigation and adap-tation and by engaging in the international process.Science addresses climate change, and expertise hasbeen built up during the last two decades. Causes andconsequences of climatic changes are discussed in themedia and are a source of concern to many.

A specifically Swiss viewpoint emerges from itsgeographic setting as an Alpine country, its standingas a country with high income, education level, andliving standard, and its political system which ischaracterized by federalism and direct democraticinstruments. In the following we briefly introducethese aspects as a background of the remainder of thepaper.

Climatography, Economy, and PolicyAlthough a small country, Switzerland encompasses avariety of climates mainly due to the Alps (Figure 1).This arc-shaped, west–east oriented mountain chainleads to large spatial gradients in climate variables.1,2

The Alps provide a barrier between the temperateEuropean climate and the Mediterranean climate.Typical mountain effects such as Föhn or inner-alpinedry valleys add to the diversity of Alpine climate. TheSwiss identity is strongly shaped by the Alps, andAlpine climates are part of it.3 The orography pro-motes weather and climate-related hazards such as

Jura

Swiss Plateau

Alps

Massa

FIGURE 1 | Switzerland is characterized by its variety of landscapes,comprising the Jura Mountains in the northwest, the Alps, and inbetween the densely populated Swiss Plateau. Massa denotes therunoff measurement station used in Figure 6. (Satellite Image: ©CNES/Spot Image/swisstopo, NPOC).

heavy precipitation or weather-induced gravitationalprocesses. As a consequence, the Alps are often con-sidered particularly vulnerable to climate change (withmelting glaciers as an iconic example) and thus areseen as a key region for studying global change3 andsustainable development.a The Alpine focus stood atthe beginning of the Swiss climate change researchprograms in the 1990s (see Box 1) NRP31 ‘Cli-matic Changes and Natural Hazards’ (1992–1997)and CLEAR (‘Climate and Environment in the AlpineRegion’, 1997–2000).

BOX 1

MAIN NATIONAL CLIMATE RESEARCHPROGRAMS FUNDED BY THE SWISSNATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

National Research Project NRP31 ‘ClimaticChanges and Natural Hazards’ (1992–1997)

Swiss Environmental Priority Programme,specifically subproject ‘Climate and Environ-ment in the Alpine Region’ CLEAR (1997–2000)

National Competence Centre for Research(NCCR) in Climate (2001–2013)

INITIATIVES OF THE SWISS SCIENTIFICCOMMUNITY

Climate Change and Switzerland 2050—Impactson Environment, Society, and Economy(CH2050)4 (2007)

Swiss Climate Change Scenarios—CH20115

(2011)

Toward Quantitative Scenarios of Cli-mate Change Impacts in Switzerland—CH2014-Impacts6 (2014)

The majority of the Swiss population does notlive in the Alps, though, but in lowland cities andsuburbs. Here, other climatic aspects might becomeimportant, including heatwaves and droughts, stormsand floods, and peaks of air pollution. As a conse-quence, a range of climatic factors are relevant forSwitzerland.

The implications of climate change depend on acountry’s vulnerability, which is mitigated by its adap-tive capacity. Switzerland has a high per capita incomeand is economically stable. Services are of particu-lar importance in terms of income, whereas agricul-ture is the dominant land use type by area and pro-duces the typical landscape. Several politically or eco-nomically important sectors such as tourism, energy(hydropower as well as river-cooled nuclear power),


WIREs Climate Change Climate change in Switzerland

insurance, and agriculture may be vulnerable to cli-mate change, as are Alpine traffic lines and otherinfrastructures. Climate change also affects naturalsystems. Switzerland thus faces a diverse set of chal-lenges.

Vulnerability and adaptive capacity also dependon social infrastructure and governance.7 The Swisspolitical system relies on direct democracy. Switzer-land has a federalist structure with 26 cantons.Although climate policy is mainly dealt with at thenational level, cantons and even municipalities playan important role (e.g., in land use planning). Accord-ing to the OECD Better Life Index, Switzerland hasa high life quality (employment rate, life satisfaction,income), and the education level is generally high.8

Since the 1970s and 1980s, environmental con-cerns have been on the political agenda in Switzer-land. Following debates on nuclear power, industrialwaste, chemical hazards, and air pollution, climatechange became a topic of interest in the 1990s. Thepast two decades, which form a special focus of thispaper, have been instrumental in shaping todays’ sit-uation of Switzerland with respect to climate changescience, policy, and links to the public.

Structure of the PaperClimate change in Switzerland is well covered inthe peer-reviewed literature. In addition, a numberof national reports on specific aspects have beenproduced, some of which are not peer-reviewed oronly available in German, but nevertheless importantand hence reviewed here. The paper is organized asfollows. We first give an overview of Swiss scienceand relevant institutions (see Table 1). The next threesections—on observed climate change, scenarios, andimpacts—each summarizes first the institutional andhistorical aspects, then the science. Further sectionsdiscuss Swiss greenhouse gas emissions and climatepolicy and, finally, the public perception of climatechange.

SWISS CLIMATE SCIENCE

This section reviews the role of Swiss institutions inclimate researchb and climate research education atUniversity level, the funding structure for fundamentaland applied climate research, Swiss climate researchprofile and output, and participation and leadershipin national and international networks.

Climate Research InstitutionsThe principal carriers of academic climate researchare the cantonal Universities (Bern, Zurich, Basel,

Geneva, and Fribourg), the two Federal Institutes ofTechnology (ETH Zurich and EPF Lausanne), andFederal Research Institutes and Agencies such as theSwiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology(MeteoSwiss), the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest,Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), the Paul Scher-rer Institute (PSI), and institutes for aquatic research(EAWAG), agriculture (Agroscope), and materials test-ing and research (EMPA) (see Table 1). Two importantSwiss centers for climate research are the ‘OeschgerCentre for Climate Change Research’ (OCCR) at theUniversity of Bern and the ‘Center for Climate Sys-tems Modeling’ (C2SM) at ETH Zürich (with partnersMeteoSwiss, EMPA, WSL, and Agroscope). The Uni-versity of Bern and ETH Zürich offer specialized MScand PhD programs in climate sciences.

C2SM puts its focus on ‘the development andapplication of climate models operating at variousscales to improve our capability to understand andpredict the Earth’s climate, including its weather sys-tems, chemical composition, and hydrological cycle’(http://www.c2sm.ethz.ch). The Oeschger Center isbroader in its scope, by combining modeling andobservations in the areas of global and regional cli-mate dynamics, climate risks and impacts, social sci-ences, climate economics and policy, and internationallaw (http://www.oeschger.unibe.ch). In addition, thetwo Federal Institutes of Technology also run a ‘Com-petence Centre for Environment and Sustainability(CCES)’, which covers climate aspects.

Swiss climate research is mainly carried outthrough research initiatives at the level of individ-ual research groups. In addition, Switzerland had sev-eral large research programs in the area of climateresearch. There is typically one at a time (see Box1). The largest program was the Swiss National Cen-tre of Excellence in Research on Climate (NCCRClimate), a collaborative 12-year long (2001–2013)multi-institutional interdisciplinary program address-ing ‘Climate Variability, Predictability, and ClimateRisks’.9 The NCCR Climate research network con-sisted of over 130 scientists from eight institutions andit formed an internationally competitive communityin Switzerland. The leading house was located at theUniversity of Bern.

In addition to climate-centered programs, othernational research programs (such as NRP61 ‘Sustain-able Water Management’) also have strong climateaspects.

Funding StructureThe main extramural funding sources (i.e., asidedirect University or ETH funding) for fundamental


http://www.c2sm.ethz.ch

http://www.oeschger.unibe.ch


TABLE 1 Acronyms of Swiss Institutions

Agroscope Research Institute of the Federal Office for Agriculture

C2SM Centre for Climate Systems Modelling

EAWAG Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology

EMPA Swiss Federal Laboratory for Materials Testing and Research

FOEN Federal Office of the Environment

MeteoSwiss Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology

OcCC Organe consultatif sur les Changements Climatique (Advisory Body on ClimateChange for the Swiss Government)

OCCR Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research

ProClim Forum for Climate and Global Change of the Swiss Academy of Sciences

PSI Paul Scherrer Institute

SNSF Swiss National Science Foundation

WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research

and applied research are the Swiss National ScienceFoundation (SNSF), oriented research initiated byFederal Agencies and Offices (Environment, Energy,Public Health, Agriculture, among others) and thePrivate Sector. For instance, the Swiss reinsurancecompany Swiss Re was the main industry partner ofthe NCCR Climate, and the Swiss Mobiliar InsuranceCooperation provides funding for a Chair in ‘ClimateRisks and Impacts’ at the University of Bern.

EU research programs (FPs, ERC, COST, amongothers) have been particularly important for Swissclimate research. Since the start of FP3 in the early1990s, Switzerland has participated in dozens ofclimate-related projects. ETH Zurich hosts the SwissClimate-KIC offices. Climate-KIC is one of threeKnowledge and Innovation Communities (KICs) cre-ated in 2010 by the European Institute of Innovationand Technology (EIT) and addresses climate changemitigation and adaptation.

Research Profile and OutputThe Swiss climate research output is regularly sum-marized in the ‘Global Change Abstracts: The SwissContribution (GCA)’, a compendium of abstracts ofpapers on the topic of global climate and environmen-tal change (http://www.proclim.ch/). In this collection,the subset ‘Climate change’ comprises nearly 1500 ISIindexed papers written or coauthored by Swiss sci-entists annually (data 2011), of which about 66%are published in the field of climate change-relatedearth system processes (including atmospheric sci-ences), 11% in past global changes (PGS), 13% inhuman dimensions of climate change, 5% in mitiga-tion and adaptation technologies, and 3% in general

Earth system processes

3%

5%

13%

11%

68%

Past global changes

Human dimensions

Mitigation and adaptationtechnologiesGeneral topics

FIGURE 2 | Percentage of scientific papers published by Swissscientists in areas related to climate change. (Source: ProClim)

topics of climate change (see Figure 2). This parti-tioning reflects the scientific profile, the structure andmajor topics of the scientific community in Switzer-land.

National and International ResearchNetwork, LeadershipA national academic network and platform for knowl-edge exchange with stakeholders is provided by Pro-Clim, the Forum for Climate and Global Change of theSwiss Academy of Sciences founded in 1988. ProClimacts as the interface between academia, public admin-istration, politics, the private sector, and the public. In1996, the Federal council founded the ‘Organe consul-tatif sur les Changements Climatiques’ (OcCC; Advi-sory Body on Climate Change) for the Swiss Govern-ment.

The federal administration [State Secretary ofResearch and Innovation, Federal Office of the Envi-ronment (FOEN), MeteoSwiss, among others] liaisewith international governmental organizations such as


http://www.proclim.ch/


the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), theUnited Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC), the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC), and others, while the SwissAcademy of Sciences networks with the nongovern-mental research organizations such as the Interna-tional Council for Science (ICSU) with its globalenvironmental programs (IGBP, WCRP, DIVERSITAS,IHDP). Swiss climate research contributes to interna-tional science services and hosts several internationalproject offices, e.g., for ‘Past Global Changes’ (PAGES,within IGBP), ‘Stratospheric Processes and their Rolein Climate’ (SPARC, within WCRP/WMO), the WorldRadiation Center (WRC) and others. Swiss scientistswere very supportive in the IPCC process from itsbeginning in 1992 and have expanded their involve-ment through the present. In IPCC AR5, Switzerlandparticipates with the co-chair of Working Group I, sev-eral lead authors, contributing authors, a review edi-tor, and it hosts the Technical Support Unit for IPCCWorking Group I at University of Bern.

OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE INSWITZERLAND

Observing ChangeThe first Swiss meteorological network was estab-lished in 1863 and gradually extended to includeupper-air measurements (1942), phenology (1951),radiation (1991), and other observing systems.MeteoSwiss is responsible for climate monitoring inSwitzerland. Monitoring of other climate variablessuch as greenhouse gas concentrations, glaciers, andrunoff is carried out by other institutions.10 Switzer-land contributes to global climate monitoring thatstarted with the establishment of the Global ClimateObserving System (GCOS) in 1992. MeteoSwiss hoststhe national GCOS office, and acts as a competencecenter for Alpine Meteorology and Climatology.11,10

The Swiss meteorological surface network wasto a good part automatized in 1980. Since 2004, thetransition into a new meteorological network referredto as SwissMetNet12 has been taking place. In the early1990s, within projects NORM90 and KLIMA90,MeteoSwiss reevaluated and homogenized its climatedata. For high quality climatological monitoring(and as Swiss contribution to the GCOS networks),the Swiss National Basic Climatological Network(NBCN) was set up in 2007, and carefully homoge-nized data, suitable for climatological trend analysis,have become available13. At the same time, also othermonitoring networks were reviewed and their contin-uation was ensured.11 This data were also the base

for early climate change studies in Switzerland.13–17

In the following we review the observed changesin meteorological variables in Switzerlandsince 1864.

Observed ChangeSurface Air Temperature and Freezing LevelSwiss annual surface air temperature has increasedby +1.75∘C between 1864 and 2012, which corre-sponds to a linear trend of about +0.12∘C per decade(Figure 3). Temperature trends have accelerated sub-stantially for more recent time periods. Annual tem-peratures have increased by about 0.13–0.20∘C perdecade (spatial range across the country) over the last100 years (1913–2012), by 0.34–0.47∘C per decadefor the last 50 years (1963–2012),18 and between0.28 and 0.55∘C per decade for the last 30 years(1983–2012). This is roughly two (last 100 years)to three (last 30 years) times the globally averagedtemperature trend19 and is in agreement with thetrends in other parts of western and central Europe.In the last 30 years, the trends were largest (highlysignificant) in spring and summer whereas less pro-nounced and mostly insignificant in autumn andwinter. Since 1961, the zero degree level has risenby 60 m per decade in winter to 75 m per decadein summer.20

PrecipitationIn the last 100 years (1913–2012), most stationsshow no significant trends in annual mean precipi-tation (Figure 4). Precipitation trends are very sen-sitive to the chosen period. On the seasonal scale,significant increases are found for some stations inwinter largely due to an increase in the first half ofthe record. No significant trends are found for otherseasons, and trends are also insignificant or incon-clusive during the last 50 years (1963–2012). Dur-ing the last 30 years (1983–2012), mean precipita-tion is predominantly decreasing in winter and spring;for a minority of the stations, the trends (−10 to−22% per decade) are significant. Increases are foundin summer, although these increases are significantonly in the central parts of Switzerland. No clear ten-dencies are found for autumn. Of large interest arealso changes in extreme precipitation. Schmidli andFrei21 investigated trends of heavy precipitation andwet and dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th cen-tury (1901–1999). They found statistically significantincreases in heavy precipitation measures in winterand autumn. In spring and summer, the heavy precip-itation and the spell-duration statistics did not showsignificant trends.



Dep

artu

re fr

om m

ean

1961

–199

0 (°

C)

–2.0

–1.5

–1.0

–0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

© MeteoSwiss

FIGURE 3 | Annual mean temperature anomalies in Switzerland 1864–2012 shown as deviation from the mean of 1961–1990 based on 12 longseries of the National Basic Climatological Network (NBCN). Years with positive anomalies (warmer) are shown in red and those with negativeanomalies (cooler) in blue. The black line shows 20-year Gaussian low pass filtered data.

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

Rat

io to

mea

n 19

61–1

990

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

© MeteoSwiss

FIGURE 4 | Annual mean precipitation in Switzerland 1864–2012 shown as ratios to the mean of 1961–1990 based on 12 long series of theNBCN. The years with ratios greater than 1 (wetter) are shown in green and those with ratios lower than 1 (dryer) in brown. The black line shows20-year Gaussian low pass filtered data.

Snow Cover and GlaciersSwiss snow variability and trends have been analyzedbased on remote sensing data back to 1985,22 andbased on station data back to the 1950s,23 to 193124,25

and to 1864.26 All studies found a decrease of theAlpine snow pack since the mid-1980s especiallyat low altitudes (<1300 m asl)24 which was shownto be predominantly linked to an increase in localtemperature.23 There is also a shortening of the snowseason at all altitude levels.27 Scherrer et al.26 showedthat for several snow parameters, the lowest valuessince the late 19th century were found in the late1980s and 1990s. In the last 10 years, however, achange toward more days with snow pack at lowelevation stations is observed, highlighting the role ofdecadal variability. Clear decreasing trends in snowfalldays relative to precipitation days are found since the1960s.28 Marty and Blanchet29 found in the last 80

years for all altitudes decreases in extreme snow depth.Negative trends are observed for extreme snowfalls atlow and high altitudes.

Swiss glaciers have been receding since around1980. In terms of mass, the current loss rate for asample of eight Alpine glaciers is estimated as 2–3%per year.30

Sunshine Duration and FogThe evolution of sunshine duration is very similar tothe evolution of surface solar radiation, which hasbeen discussed extensively in literature under the termsof solar dimming and brightening.31 Sanchez-Lorenzoand Wild32 found that all sky surface solar radiationhas been fairly stable with little variations in thefirst half of the 20th century, unlike the secondhalf of the 20th century that is characterized bya dimming from the 1950s to the 1980s and a



subsequent brightening. This is reflected in sunshineduration, which has increased by roughly 250–400 hor almost 20% north of the Alps and by roughly10% south of the Alps30 from 1980 to 2011. Thenumber of very sunny days (relative sunshine duration>80%) shows significant increases since the 1980s,whereas the number of very cloudy days (relativesunshine duration <20%) decreases.30 Scherrer andAppenzeller33 showed that the decade 1984–1993was the foggiest and 1999–2008 the least foggydecade since 1901. In the most recent years a returntoward the climatological mean could be observed.Measurements of downwelling longwave radiation inSwitzerland show a significant increase since the early1990s.34

Heat Waves, Droughts, Winter Storms, ThunderStorms, Hail, and TornadosOver the period 1880 to 2005, the length of summerheat waves over Western Europe, including Switzer-land, has doubled and the frequency of hot days hasalmost tripled.35 In terms of standardized anomalies,the heat wave of 2003 was a 5-𝜎 event, while thestrongest previous event in 1947 was a 3-𝜎 event.36

No conclusive statements can be made about strongdroughts in Switzerland. For southern Switzerland,Rebetez37 found increases in moderate droughts dur-ing the 20th century. Most Swiss stations show anincrease in the maximum number of consecutive dayswithout precipitation; however, the trend is not sta-tistically significant.30 The literature provides no con-clusive results about winter storm trends in Europeincluding Switzerland.38 Storm damages in Swissforests increased.39 Instrumental measurements fromZurich as well as reanalysis data show an increase inextreme winds between the 1950s and the 1990s, buta decrease since.40–42 For thunder storms, hail, andtornados, evidence for changes is more scant.4

PhenologyAn increasing number of studies, based on the Swissobserving network since 1951 or satellite data since1982,43 show evidence of a shift in plant develop-ment toward an earlier onset in spring as a con-sequence of climate change. Spring and early sum-mer phases are directly influenced by temperature.Averaged over 15 spring pheno-phases, a trend of1.5 days/decade was observed from 1965 to 2002,with a clear shift in 1988.44 Series of single springplants showed trends toward earlier appearance from−1 to −2.8 day/decade, stronger at lowland stationsthan at sites of higher elevation.44,45 The correlationwith temperature is high, while precipitation does notinfluence the main phenological pattern.44,46 No clear

trends are seen in autumn. Defila and Clot47 founda prolongation of the vegetation period of 13.3 daysfrom 1951 to 2000, similar to trends in other Euro-pean regions.48

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FORSWITZERLAND

Producing Climate ScenariosAt the global scale, climate change scenarios have beencompiled on a regular basis since 1990, coordinatedby the IPCC. Scenarios for Europe, based on regionalmodels nested into global models, have first beenprepared by Giorgi et al.49 In recent years, individualcountries have started to develop regionally focusedclimate scenarios to inform their stakeholders anddecision makers, e.g., the United Kingdom in 2002.50

In Switzerland, the first climate projections wereobtained from statistical51 or dynamical52 downscal-ing of global model results, or from surrogate sce-narios obtained with a regional model.53,54 Theseearly attempts were continued in the aforementionedprojects NRP31 and CLEAR55 (see Box 1), which ini-tiated the creation of a ‘Swiss climate community’.This community started to provide information onfuture climate to users.56,57

At about the same time, i.e., in the 1990s,with future climate change becoming a topic of highpolitical and societal relevance, the link betweenpolicy makers and science was institutionalized withthe foundation of ProClim and OcCC (see Table 1).One of the first reports coordinated by OcCC focusedon changes in heavy precipitation and flooding underclimate change.58

In 2007, the growing Swiss climate researchcommunity released a first national climate reportunder the umbrella of OcCC and ProClim.5 Thiscomprehensive report included a set of Swiss climatescenarios for the years around 2050,59,60 also knownas ‘CH2050 scenarios’ or ‘CH2007 scenarios’ (seeBox 1), and a broad, mainly qualitatively describedoverview of expected impacts on various sectors inSwitzerland, such as agriculture, ecosystems, watermanagement, health, energy, tourism, infrastructure,and insurances.

With the experience gained during NCCR Cli-mate and a growing climate science community,a multi-institutional collaboration between C2SM,MeteoSwiss, ETH Zurich, the NCCR Climate, andOcCC (see Table 1, Box 1) led to the developmentof a new set of Swiss climate scenarios, which werepublished in the CH2011 report.4 These Swiss Cli-mate Change Scenarios CH2011 serve as a common,



consolidated basis for impact studies in Switzerland.Providing consistent and state-of-the art informationrequired specific analyses and an enhancement ofestablished methods.

The CH2011 Swiss climate scenarios, which aredescribed in the following, rely heavily on results fromthe large European research project ‘ENSEMBLES’60

and the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.61 TheENSEMBLES project provided a unique set of regionalclimate simulations over Europe that allows derivingscenarios in a multi-model approach. In addition, newstatistical methods have been developed enabling abetter quantification of uncertainties in climate projec-tions and the derivation of probabilistic estimates.62,63

The CH2011 report was externally reviewed.The CH2011 projections serve as a com-

mon basis for political recommendations andmany impact-related studies such as the Swiss cli-mate change adaptation strategy,64 the CC Hydroproject exploring effects of climate change on waterresources65 or the CH2014-Impact initiative. Thefeedback from applications and users helps to iden-tify knowledge gaps and to develop data sets whichmatch user needs. As a result the scenarios have beenextended to include more regional66 or localizedinformation.67 A range of studies has also addressedextreme events, among these are heat waves and sum-mer temperature variability,68,69 heavy precipitationevents,70 and wind storms.71 Key developments willalso be published in a CH2011 extension series. Cur-rently, most of the efforts are still based on voluntarycontributions in an academic environment, but withthe current international and national activities aim-ing to strengthen climate services, a more sustainableprocess may be established.

Swiss Climate ScenariosThe CH2011 projections focus on changes in tem-perature and precipitation, reflecting the main quan-tities for which information is available and requiredby the users. Probabilistic seasonal mean changes areprovided using a multi-model approach for three rep-resentative regions of Switzerland and for three dif-ferent future pathways of anthropogenic emissions.72

In addition, daily mean scenarios are made availableboth on a regional basis and at individual observa-tional sites by downscaling, mainly to fulfill the needsof impact models that often require high resolution.73

Expected changes in extremes are discussed based ona comprehensive literature review and on an analysisof climate indices in individual climate models.

The report shows that Swiss climate is projectedto depart significantly from present and past con-ditions in the course of the 21st century (Figure 5).

Mean temperature will very likely increase in allregions and seasons. Summer mean precipitation willlikely decrease by the end of the century all overSwitzerland, while winter precipitation will likelyincrease in Southern Switzerland. In other regionsand seasons, models indicate that mean precipitationcould either increase or decrease.

Along with these changes in mean temperatureand precipitation, the nature of extreme events is alsoexpected to change. The CH2011 report indicatesmore frequent, intense, and longer-lasting summerwarm spells and heat waves while the number of coldwinter days and nights is expected to decrease. Projec-tions of the frequency and intensity of precipitationevents are more uncertain, but substantial changescannot be ruled out. In addition a shift from solid(snow) to liquid (rain) precipitation is expected, whichwould increase flood risk primarily in the lowlands.

Projection uncertainties were derived using aBayesian methodology. However, given conceptuallimitations of the global and regional climate model-ing approach, the CH2011 report refrains from inter-preting the projection uncertainties in a probabilisticway. Additionally incorporating expert judgement, a‘lower estimate’, ‘medium estimate’, and ‘upper esti-mate’ were defined and displayed with boxes as inFigure 5.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

Assessing Climate Change ImpactsClimate change impacts at a global level were assessedin the first IPCC Assessment report in 1990; work thathad partly grown out of assessments of atmosphericchange (air pollution, ozone loss, UV radiation),but encompassed all aspects of climate impacts. InSwitzerland, responses of forests and grasslands toclimate change were studied in the 1990s,74,75 andin several NRP31 (see Box 1) subprojects impactson various areas such as tourism,76 agriculture,77,78

economy,79 and natural hazards were studied andpublished in individual reports.

One of the first comprehensive summary reportson climate change impacts in Switzerland was theaforementioned 2007 report ‘Climate Change andSwitzerland 2050—Impacts on Environment, Societyand Economy’5 (see Box 1). The report targeted abroad audience and adopted a midterm perspectivefocusing on the year 2050 and a variety of sectors.

Following this report, a number of sectorialreports have been produced (many commissionedby government agencies, reflecting the need forinformation for policy makers), covering health,80



1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Year

A2

A1B

RCP3PD

Total global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO2eq/year)

Summer precipitation change (%) over Switzerland

Temperature change (°C) over Switzerland

–50

–40

–30

–20

–10

0

10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2070–2099 rel. 1980–2009 2070–2099 rel. 1980–2009

A2A1B

RCP3PD

RCP3PD

A1B

A2

FIGURE 5 | The three pathways of past and future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions used in CH2011, along with corresponding projectedannual mean warming and summer precipitation change over Switzerland for the 30-year average centered at 2085 (Reprinted with permission fromRef 4. Copyright 2011 C2SM, MeteoSwiss, ETH, NCCR Climate, and OcCC and Reprinted with permission from Ref 6. Copyright 2011 C2SM,MeteoSwiss, ETH, NCCR Climate, and OcCC.)

hydropower,81 water resources,65 runoff,82,83

tourism,84 and other sectors.To complement these sectorial reports and the

more qualitative assessment of 2007,5 the Swiss sci-entific community launched an effort to quantify cli-mate change impacts in a coordinated manner, with astandardized framework, and for the whole of Switzer-land. Based on the new climate change scenarios forSwitzerland CH2011 (see previous section and Box 1),and with major progress in impact modeling, the com-munity has produced the report ‘CH2014-Impacts’,6

which comprises a collection of currently quantifi-able impacts with no claim to be comprehensive.CH2014-Impacs deals with climate change impacts ona short-, mid-, and long-term perspective and for threeemissions scenarios.

Projected Climate Change ImpactsClimate-induced changes have already become appar-ent in the last decades. Studies have shown, e.g., themelting of Swiss glaciers since around 1980,30 trendstoward earlier grape harvests,85 an increase in agricul-tural area suitable for grapevines,86 an increase of low-land forest species at mid-elevation,87 and an upwardshift of the occurrence of pine mistletoe and an exten-sion of the fungal fruiting season.88 In the followingwe summarize the literature on projected impact forselected sectors (water resources, agriculture, forestry,and tourism), while other topics such as health or nat-ural hazards cannot be covered in this paper.

Impacts on HydrologyWith respect to the hydrological cycle, river runoffregimes are projected to shift from snow-controlled

to rain-controlled under climate change6,65,81 (see alsoFigure 6). Winter discharge is projected to increase atthe expense of decreasing summer discharge.83 Thereason lies in projected changes in the cryosphere,in the precipitation increases (decreases) projectedfor winter (summer), and in projected changes inevapotranspiration. Large areas are projected to bedeglaciated by the end of this 21st century basedon the A1B scenario translating to a volume lossof 85–95%.6 Additionally, multi-day snow cover isprojected to become a rare phenomenon in the Swissplateau, whereas snow depth and duration will besignificantly reduced at higher altitudes.6,89

With respect to future hydropower generation,a recent report81 found that the total quantity ofwater that can be utilized for power generation mayincrease due to a more equal seasonal distributionof the runoff. On the long term (2085), however,decreasing production is expected for high altitude,glacier-fed catchments. In the lowlands, low-runoffsituations may become more common.65

Impacts on AgricultureProjected temperature change and changes in thehydrological cycle also affect vegetation and crops.A moderate increase in temperature may lead toincreased yields of maize,90,91 and grassland produc-tivity may benefit from more favorable temperatureand radiation conditions92,93 and an extended grow-ing season.6,94,95 However, projections to the end ofthe 21st century suggest an increase in productionrisks due to more variable weather.96,97 This includesdrought risks98 leading in some regions to a higher



Runoff components:

Aletsch

RunoffPrecipitation

Runoff measurements

Ice melt Snow melt Liquid precipitation

5

4

3

Ann

ual r

unof

f (10

3 m

m/a

)

Ann

ual r

unof

f (10

6 m

3 /a)

(%)

2

21002050200019501900

200

400

600

800

0

50

100

1

FIGURE 6 | Observed and modeled annual mean runoff at Massa (blue and gray curves) (see Figure 1 for location), a catchment that includes theAletsch Glacier. The dashed line indicates annual mean precipitation. Top: Contribution of ice melt, snow melt, and rainfall to runoff and fraction ofglaciated area (red dashed). (Reprinted with permission from Ref 65, Copyright 2012 FOEN)

water demand that could exceed the limits of sur-face water availability for irrigation.95,99 Rising tem-perature maxima increase the risk of heat stress inlivestock.95,100 Because of more frequent and intenserainfalls during the winter/spring seasons, and due tochanges in rainfall erosivity and reduced soil cover,101

soil erosion risks are likely to increase,96,102 in partic-ular in northern parts of the Alps.

Impacts on ForestsIn Swiss forests, climate change is expected to affecttree species distribution in particular for the two mostimportant tree species of Switzerland, Norway spruce,and European beech. For strong warming (A1B, A2scenarios) spruce and beech are at risk in large parts ofthe Plateau region6 in line with findings for Europeanforest land being suitable only for Mediterranean oakforest type with low economic value and reducedcarbon sequestration by 2100.103 Even a warmingof only 2∘C was found not to be safe for ecosystemfunctions in dry regions, while in wetter regions forestsmay be comparatively resistant to warming.104

Impacts on TourismProjected reduced snow cover directly impacts thesnow-dependent winter tourism105 which could sub-stantially decrease the number of snow-reliable areasunder high emission scenarios.6 Some of this reduc-tion could be compensated by expanded applicationof artificial snowmaking, which would, however,require substantial investments and entail costs and

nonnegligible environmental impacts.6,106–108

Müller84 identifies not only the lack of snow, but alsothe lack of a ‘winter atmosphere’, the scarcity of water(for artificial snowmaking), and the possible increaseof natural hazards, and adaptation costs (e.g., costs ofchanging the offer toward less snow-dependent activi-ties) as important factors. When the reduction in snowcover in competing international destinations is takeninto account, simulations suggest that Swiss wintertourism could actually increase its revenues.109,110

SWISS CLIMATE POLICY

In this section we present the performance of Switzer-land in terms of stabilizing its CO2 emissions andmeeting its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol.Next, we present Swiss climate policy and how it wasgradually defined in the political process. This sectionalso addresses the adaptation strategy that is beingdeveloped and implemented and Switzerland’s contri-bution to international policy making.

Global and Swiss Climate TargetsSwitzerland contributed to the drafting of the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in 1992 and ratified it 1993. TheUNFCCC calls for a stabilization of ‘greenhousegas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level thatwould prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference



with the climate system’. Rich countries such asSwitzerland are explicitly called upon to contributeto global efforts. Specific targets were set in the 1997Kyoto Protocol, which Switzerland ratified in June2003.

With the ratification of the Protocol, Switzerlandcommitted itself to reduce its net emissions of sixgreenhouse gases by 8% over the period 2008–2012compared to 1990. This target was copied from thatof the European Union. Before ratification of theKyoto Protocol, a target limited to energy-related CO2emissions was set in the CO2 act of 2000 (10%below the 1990 level in the period 2008–2012). It wasassumed that this would be sufficient to meet the 8%Kyoto reduction target for all six greenhouse gases,considering that the former amounted to 80% of thelatter.

The targets under the Kyoto Protocol and theCO2 act are shown as horizontal lines in Figure 7.Based on the latest estimates, the targets for the period2008–2012 can be met both under the Kyoto Protocoland the CO2 act. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the use offlexible mechanisms contributes substantially to meet-ing the targets. Afforestation and forest managementare estimated to contribute 1.7 million tons of CO2 peryear. The use of certified emission reductions (CERs)will contribute another 2.8–3.0 million tons of CO2per year.

For the Post-Kyoto period, despite disappoint-ing results in the international arena, the Parliamentapproved a revised CO2 act that entered into force in2013 and sets a Kyoto-type target for overall green-house gas emissions 20% below the 1990 level in2020 (square in Figure 7). The act has a provision thatthis target could be tightened by the government to amaximum of 40% in the context of an internationalagreement. Like the earlier act, the revised act requiresas a general rule that the emissions mitigation takesplace within Switzerland, yet it allows for ‘appropri-ate’ recognition of abatement obtained abroad.

The overall target was broken up into three sec-torial intermediate targets for 2015: −22% in thebuildings sector, −7% in the industry sector and stabi-lization at the 1990-level for the transportation sector.All these targets imply actual reductions relative to thecurrent and to the predicted business-as-usual levels.

Based on various simulations, Switzerland canpursue an ambitious reduction target with moder-ate costs for the economy.111–119 Even the concur-rent phase out of nuclear power does not alter thisresult.120,121 The Swiss government decided in May2011, after the Fukushima accident, that the exist-ing nuclear power plants will not be replaced whenthey reach the end of their service life. The level of

electricity supply is to be assured through increasedenergy efficiency and the expansion of hydropowerand new renewables. Only if this proves insufficient,fossil-fuel-based electricity production and importswill be expanded. In that case, all additional CO2emissions will have to be compensated.

Swiss Greenhouse Gas EmissionsSwitzerland belongs to the countries with the bestenvironmental indicators in the OECD, includinggreenhouse gas emissions. It contributed 0.17% ofworld CO2 emissions in 2000. Its 5.3 tons of CO2emissions per inhabitant per year (6.3 tons of CO2eq.) is only half the OECD average (12.2 tons), butabove the world average of 4 tons of CO2. Relativeto GDP, Switzerland emitted 0.26 tons CO2/1000USD compared to an OECD average of 0.74. Note,however, that if emissions abroad related to Swissconsumption are taken into account, Swiss emissionsare comparable to those of other Western Europeancountries. The total primary energy supply per Swissinhabitant is 3.4 t crude oil equivalent, which is belowthat of other Western European countries, but almosttwice the global average.

An inventory of Swiss CO2 and greenhouse gasemissions exists for the period 1990–2011 (Figure 7),but depending on the political framework (see nextsubsection), different metrics are used. Under theKyoto Protocol, all CO2 emissions as well as emis-sions of other greenhouse gases are accounted for(Figure 7, red curves), while under the national CO2act (2000–2012), only energy-related CO2 emissionsare taken into account (e.g., excluding emissions fromrefineries, waste and incineration, geogenic emissionsfrom cement production, and others), and they are cor-rected for interannual temperature variability due tothe large contribution of room heating (blue curve inFigure 7). Around 80% of the Swiss greenhouse gasemissions are energy-related CO2 emissions (ca 75%of Swiss energy consumption is from fossil fuels).

Instruments of Swiss Climate MitigationPolicySwitzerland addresses its mitigation target with a com-bination of measures in various areas. The main foun-dations are the federal act on the reduction of CO2emissions (‘CO2 act’) of 2000 and the federal energyact of 1998. The CO2 act relied in a first phase onvoluntary efforts, to be complemented, if insufficient,by a CO2 tax. The energy act called for extensive col-laboration with the private sector to promote bothenergy efficiency and renewable energy. In addition,Switzerland relied on various existing policies and



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sw

iss

gree

nhou

se g

as e

mis

sion

s (m

io t

CO

2 eq

.)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Revised CO2 acttarget (total GHG)

CO2 from energy according to Kyoto Protocol

Total GHG according to Kyoto Protocol

CO2 act target

Kyoto Protocol target

CO2 from energy according to CO2 act

FIGURE 7 | Swiss greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 according to the Kyoto Protocol and the CO2 act. Targets are indicated with dashed lines.

measures that have a direct or indirect impact on GHGemissions to meet its emissions targets.122 They con-cern energy, agriculture, forestry, transportation, andenvironmental protection and use a mix of economicinstruments, regulation, public investments, and vol-untary approaches. Economic instruments encom-pass subsidies for energy conservation, particularlyin buildings, the development of renewable energysources, and the reduction of intensive agriculture.Taxes on gasoline, which have a revenue purpose,increase its price at the pump by about 50–60%, anda new incentive tax was introduced in 2001 on heavygoods vehicles. Regulation is widespread in energyproduction and consumption, both in the form oftechnical prescriptions and emission limits. Legislationlimits the reduction of forest size since 1876 (the rati-fication of the forestry law). Finally, the promotion ofhydro- and nuclear power (the latter until the end ofnuclear power plant service life) and of public trans-portation also contributes to lower the CO2 intensityof the Swiss economy.

However, the voluntary efforts plus complemen-tary measures could not possibly meet the target with-out the tax.123 This was predicted by several sim-ulations of the development of the Swiss economyand its energy use, some commissioned by the Fed-eral administration.124–128 It was therefore necessaryto prepare the second phase of the CO2 act with theCO2 tax. To avoid the tax on motor fuels, the SwissPetrol Union launched a ‘climate penny’ (or ‘climatecent’) proposal.129 Under this proposal, a contribu-tion of 0.015 CHF (ca 0.015 USD) would be leviedon every litre of gasoline and diesel to feed a fund that

would buy carbon reduction certificates abroad and,in Switzerland, subsidise energy conservation and sub-stitution.

This proposal marked a turn in Swiss climatepolicy and reanimated discussions about the intro-duction of different CO2 instruments. As earlier stud-ies on Swiss climate mitigation policy showed,130,131

an important reorganization of actors in the policyprocess took place: Between the first phase of vol-untary measures (1995–2000) and the second phasewhere new instruments (e.g., tax and climate penny)were negotiated (2002–2008), political parties, indus-try and transport representatives changed positionsand strategies. The voluntary agreements were nolonger a sufficient solution; the actors had to decidebetween supporting the tax or the climate penny.

A deadlock between a ‘pro-environment coali-tion’ and a ‘pro-economy coalition’132 was brokenthrough two ‘policy brokers’—a Federal agency and acenter-right party.133 They proposed the CO2 tax onlyon heating and process fuels and the climate pennyon motor fuels. The latter was introduced in October2005 by a private organization independent from theFederal administration. The CO2 tax on heating andprocess fuels was only introduced in January 2008. Ittook the Parliament almost four years to agree on itsrate and modalities.

The tax was initially set to 12 CHF/tCO2 (ca 12USD/tCO2) and raised to 36 CHF (ca 36 USD/tCO2)in 2010. Large emitters and energy-intensive firmscould be exempted, provided that they committed toreduce their emissions by an equivalent amount. Thisopportunity was grasped by more than one third of the



Swiss economy. Gradually their commitments weretransformed into registered emissions rights, which aretradable among concerned firms. The CO2 act of 2000stated that the revenues of the CO2 tax were to be fullyredistributed to the population and economic sectors.The Parliament decided to reserve a large share forsubsidies to energy refurbishments of buildings.

The revised CO2 act of 2013 prolongs the CO2tax on heating fuels, first at the level of 36 CHF/tCO2,then rose to 60 CHF/tCO2 (ca. 60 USD/tCO2) in2014, with a third of its revenues to be channelledinto the promotion of energy conservation in build-ings. As to the transport sector, the two coalitionsagain were in opposition concerning the reductiontarget (less so concerning the instruments130). Thegovernment finally decided that motor fuel importersmust compensate 5–40% of the implied CO2 and abinding CO2 target is introduced fleet-wise for newcars (130gCO2/km by 2015).134 Large industrialemitters are granted emissions rights that shouldbecome tradable on the EU-Emissions Trading Systemin the near future.

AdaptationThe IPCC Fourth Assessment Report61 establishedthat despite the efforts being made by the interna-tional community to mitigate the increase of atmo-spheric greenhouse gas concentrations, climate changecannot be avoided but merely reduced. This resultmade many industrialized countries investigate cli-mate change impacts, some with considerable invest-ments in data collection and modeling, and developtheir own adaptation strategy. As shown above theSwiss scientific community is improving its under-standing of climate change impacts in Switzerland.The improved understanding allows an assessmentof climate change impacts, though mostly qualita-tive, as potentially sizable. The insights of an earlierassessment5 made the Federal Council include adap-tation to climate change as a complementary secondpillar next to mitigation in the revised CO2 act.134

Article 8 of the act mandates the federal government(1) to ‘coordinate measures to mitigate and cope withdamages to people and assets which could occur dueto increased greenhouse concentrations’ and (2) ‘toarrange for the development and provision of funda-mentals needed to implement such measures’.

For the implementation of Article 8 the FederalCouncil is developing an adaptation strategy, the firstpart of which was adopted in 2012.135 Key elementsof the first part of the Swiss adaptation strategyare (1) general objectives and principles, (2) sectorialstrategies for those sectors most affected by climate

change in Switzerland and (3) a discussion of the mostsignificant challenges Switzerland is facing in adaptingto climate change.

In the second part of the adaptation strategy (tobe adopted in spring 2014), adaptation measures arepresented and coordinated in a joint action plan. Askey elements, the action plan contains a summary ofthe Federal Administrations measures to achieve thesectorial adaptation goals as defined in the first part ofthe strategy and an outline of coordinated approachesto tackle the cross-sectorial challenges.

At this stage, the strategy is still mainly qualita-tive, without a strong scientific base for setting pri-orities. To address this deficiency, the FOEN (Fed-eral Office for the Environment) is conducting anation-wide analysis of climate change induced risksand opportunities (to be completed in 2016).

Participation in International NegotiationsIn international climate negotiations and since thelate 1990s, Switzerland adopted the position of anonaligned country.136 As a non-EU member state, itdeveloped strategies to gain access to the highest levelsof negotiation by weaving partnerships with groupsof very heterogeneous states. In 1999 for instance,Switzerland participated within the UNFCCC in thecreation of the Environmental Integrity Group (EIG)with Mexico, South Korea, Monaco and Lichtenstein.None of the EIG member belongs to any of thefour key blocks in climate negotiation (G77, China,USA, and EU). Concerning mitigation issues, theposition of Switzerland is close to that of the EU. Thecountry supports the 2∘ target and aims at reducing itsemissions by 20% by 2020 (relative to 1990).

Since 2006 and the UNFCCC Conferencein Nairobi, the mandate of the Swiss governmentincludes the proposition of a global CO2 levy designedto provide the means to fund adaptation in developingcountries. Also in 2013, at the COP19 in Warsaw,Switzerland reconfirmed this position by promotingthe Green Climate Fund, emphasizing that trans-parent financing mechanisms and the inclusion of alarge number of donors would be necessary.137 Thus,more strongly than in its domestic climate policy,Switzerland aims at the introduction of incentives andfinancing mechanisms and the commitment of theprivate sector to promoting international adaptationinstruments.

PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF CLIMATECHANGE IN SWITZERLANDInstitutions operating observing systems report cli-mate change and science informs us about the causes.



However, the public perception of climate changedoes not correspond directly to the observed changesand their explanations. This has been a matter ofresearch internationally during the past years. Obvi-ously, media coverage and interpersonal communi-cation matter138; hence, the media themselves playa role139 as well as the means of communication,e.g., through visualisation.140 Further, personal fac-tors matter. The public perception of climate changeis related to personal experience, knowledge, educa-tion, and trust in societal actors such as administra-tive agencies and scientific institutions.141 Expecta-tions have also been shown to affect perception ofclimate change.142 In this Section we review studieson climate change perception in Switzerland.

Climate Change Perception, EnvironmentalConcern, and KnowledgeSurveys on public perception of climate change inEuropean countries (including Switzerland) show thatclimate change is perceived by most respondentsas real and partly man-made. Many feel that theirpersonal comfort will be at risk.141,143,144 The publicperception of climate change is related to the level ofenvironmental concern, which increases with the levelof education.145 According to surveys, Switzerlandexhibits a very high level of environmental concern inan international comparison, though unchanged sincethe 1990s.145

However, the same studies also show that ahigh level of environmental values does not precludemisconception with respect to climate change,141 andthis is also found for Switzerland, despite an increasein people’s knowledge related to CO2.

143 Climatechange is not necessarily perceived by the Europeanpublic as a domestic issue141 and the same was foundfor Switzerland (e.g., farmers were more concernedabout the consequences in southern countries than inSwitzerland146).

Media coverage on climate change in Switzer-land is not well studied. Studer147 analyzed the cover-age of the four IPCC Assessment Reports in newspa-pers from the German and French-speaking parts ofSwitzerland. The newspapers focused on attribution,model projections, and impacts on specific regions(Switzerland, Africa, coastal regions). In addition, top-ics such as uncertainties or the relation between sci-ence, politics, and the public were raised. Newspapersfrom the German speaking part of Switzerland fol-lowed more closely the wording of the IPCC reportsand reported more often on natural sciences or thescience-policy interface, while the French-languagenewspapers chose a simpler language and reportedmore often on economical and political aspects.

2009

1850

–200

8 +

1.5

°

THOMAS KISSLING

FIGURE 8 | Stamp visualizing temperature change and retreatingglaciers in Switzerland, issued 2009 (© Die Post).

Perception of Retreating Glaciersand Extreme EventsMost respondents in a recent global survey144 indi-cated that they have personally experienced climatechange and this is an important factor in the percep-tion of the problem.141 Climate change in a narrowsense (a change in temperature or precipitation over a30-year period) can hardly be perceived sensually, butonly indirectly through phenomena which the individ-ual relates to climate change, such as shifting seasons,retreating glaciers, or an extreme weather event.

For Switzerland, retreating glaciers play a specialrole, as glaciers are part of the Swiss identity. It isthus interesting to briefly discuss the perception ofglacier changes and specifically their visualization inthe course of time (see also Figure 8). For agriculturalcommunities in the Swiss Alps, growing glaciers wereprimarily a threat. In the early 19th century, glacierswere ‘discovered’ as beautiful landscape elements byearly travellers and became a motif in protoromanticand romantic paintings.148 In the late 19th century,the ice age theory, which revived age-old fears ofan eternal winter, made glaciers a symbol of climatechange.149 Glaciers and palm trees combined in onescenery were used in the early 20th century to illustrateice ages and climate change, and in the late 20thcentury to illustrate global warming. The same motifwas used in tourist advertisement since the late 19thcentury—and today—to illustrate the diversity of theAlpine landscape.149

Today, palm trees ragged by strong winds illus-trate changes in extremes, and pairs of glacier photos(then and now) stand for relentless warming (e.g., inthe movie ‘An Inconvenient Truth’). A climate changeiconography developed.140 Although clearly a conse-quence of climate change, retreating glaciers are also



a pictorial symbol with a long and changing history,which might affect current perception.

Similarly, experienced extremes or disasters areoften perceived as signs of climate change. Particu-larly, the heat wave of 2003 had a large impact onpublic perception of climate change in Switzerland.As the human lifespan is too short to perceive changesin very rare events, perceived extremes need to beconfronted with a societal memory150 or scientificinterpretation. In Switzerland, natural disasters werefrequent in the 19th century, but the traditionaldisaster memory was largely lost during the 1910sto 1970s period, when only few natural disastersoccurred (termed ‘disaster gap’151). Today, naturaldisasters are often depicted in the media as related toclimate change (e.g., a land slide in Brienz, Switzer-land, in ‘An Inconvenient Truth’) even if they are not,highlighting the difficulty of perceiving climate changethrough experienced extremes.

CONCLUSION

Similar to most other western European countries,Switzerland has experienced a pronounced tempera-ture increase during the past century. The annual meanair temperature has increased by 1.75∘C over the past150 years. Temperature is projected to rise even fasteruntil the end of the century, depending on the emissionscenario, accompanied by changes in other variablessuch as precipitation, snow cover, and runoff.

So, what does climate change mean for Switzer-land? Impacts of climate change have been observedin the cryosphere, biodiversity, and other areas. Forthe future, runoff regimes are projected to shift fromsnow-controlled to rain-controlled, agriculture willface increased heat stress for livestock, and tree speciesdistribution will change. The tourist industry will haveto cope with shorter ski seasons and the urban popu-lation will be exposed to more heat days, to name justa few of the expected impacts.

How does Switzerland deal with climate change?The topic of climate change is well rooted in politicaland public discussions in Switzerland. Swiss climate

policy has long relied on mitigation and specificallyon voluntary measures, which are supplementedby a CO2 tax on some fuel categories. The FederalGovernment has recently acknowledged adaptationas a second pillar next to mitigation and is in processof establishing an adaptation strategy. There is aninternationally well-embedded scientific community,which during the recent years has produced a con-sistent set of climate scenarios and a quantitativealthough not comprehensive climate change impactreport based on these.

This current situation is the product of a devel-opment that started 20 years ago, as is shown in thisreview. Climate change became a topic of public con-cern in Switzerland in the early 1990s. Through asequence of national research programs, Swiss climateresearch has built up significant expertise since thattime, formed a community, and an institutionalizedinterface between science, the public, policy makers,and private stakeholders developed. During the sameperiod, a Swiss climate policy emerged and was grad-ually defined in the political process.

While Switzerland shares many facets of cli-mate change, climate change science and the pub-lic discourse with other Western European countries,a specifically Swiss aspect is its Alpine setting. TheAlps make climate change more apparent and forsome aspects (tourist sector, hydropower, and extremeevents) particularly relevant and perceivable (e.g.,retreating glaciers). Not surprisingly the Alpine regionis of central interest in Swiss climate change studies.

NOTESaAt the 1992 Rio Conference, Switzerland was instru-mental in inserting the Chapter ‘Sustainable MountainDevelopment’ into Agenda 21.bClimate change is understood in a broad senseencompassing atmospheric and planetary research,climate system science, climate impacts on naturaland managed ecosystems, and human dimensions ofclimate change.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors wish to thank Céline Dizerens for her support in formatting the manuscript.

REFERENCES1. Schär C, Davies TD, Frei C, Wanner H, Widmann M,

Wild M, Davies HC. Current Alpine climate. In: CebonP, Dahinden U, Davies HC, Imboden D, Jäger CC,eds. Views from the Alps. Regional Perspectives on

Climate Change. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press; 1998,21–72.

2. Wanner H, Rickli R, Salvisberg E, Schmutz C, SchüeppM. Global climate change and variability and its in



fluence on alpine climate—concepts and observations.Theor Appl Climatol 1997, 58:221–243.

3. Imboden DM. Introduction. In: Cebon P, Dahinden U,Davies HC, Imboden D, Jäger CC, eds. Views fromthe Alps. Regional Perspectives on Climate Change.Cambridge, MA: MIT Press; 1998, 1–20.

4. CH2011. Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011.Zurich, Switzerland: C2SM, MeteoSwiss, ETHZurich, NCCR Climate, OcCC; 2011, 88. doi:10.3929/ethz-a-006720559.

5. OcCC and ProClim. Climate Change and Switzer-land2050. Expected Impacts on Environment. Bern:Society and Economy. OcCC/ProClim - Forum for Cli-mate and Global Change; 2007.

6. CH2014-Impacts. Toward Quantitative Scenarios ofClimate Change Impacts in Switzerland. Bern, Switzer-land: OCCR, MeteoSwiss, FOEN, C2SM, Agroscope,ProClim; 2014, 136pp.

7. Adger WN, Brooks N, Kelly M, Bentham S, Eriksen S.New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity.Tyndall Centre Technical Report 7, 2004.

8. OECD. Education at a Glance 2012:Highlights. OECD Publishing; 2012. doi:10.1787/eag_highlights-2012-en.

9. Wanner H, Grosjean M, Röthlisberger R, Xoplaki E.Climate variability, predictability and climate risks: aEuropean perspective. Clim Change 2006, 79:1–7. doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-5714-4_1.

10. Begert M, Seiz G, Foppa N, Schlegel T, AppenzellerC, Müller G. Die Überführung der klimatologischenReferenzstationen der Schweiz in das Swiss NationalClimatological Network (Swiss NBCN) (in German).Arbeitsberichte der MeteoSchweiz 2007, 215:43.

11. Seiz G, Foppa N. National Climate Observing Sys-tem (GCOS Switzerland). Zurich: Publication ofMeteoSwiss and ProClim; 2007, 92.

12. Roulet Y-A, Landl B, Félix C, Calpini B. Devel-opment and challenges in SwissMetNet, the newSwiss meteorological network. Presented at theTECO-2010 – WMO Technical Conference on Mete-orological and Environmental Instruments andMethods of Observation, 2010.

13. Begert M, Schlegel T, Kirchhofer W. Homogeneoustemperature and precipitation series of Switzerlandfrom 1864 to 2000. Int J Climatol 2005, 25:65–80.doi: 10.1002/joc.1118.

14. Beniston M, Rebetez M, Giorgi F, Marinucci R. Ananalysis of regional climate change in Switzerland.Theor Appl Climatol 1994, 49:135–159.

15. Weber RO, Talkner P, Stefanicki G. Asymetric diurnaltemperature change in the Alpine region. Geophys ResLett 1994, 21:673–676. doi: 10.1029/94GL00774.

16. Widmann M, Schär C. A principal component andlong-term trend analysis of daily precipitation inSwitzerland. Int J Climatol 1996, 17:1333–1356. doi:

10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199710)17:12<1333::AID-JOC108>3.0.CO;2-Q.

17. Bader S, Bantle H. Das Schweizer Klima imTrend: Temperatur- und Niederschlagsentwicklung1864–2001, MeteoSwiss Scientific Report 68, ISBN2422-2318, 2004.

18. Ceppi P, Scherrer SC, Fischer AM, Appenzeller C.Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959–2008. Int JClimatol 2012, 32:203–213. doi: 10.1002/joc.2260.

19. IPCC. Summary for Policymakers. In: Stocker TF, QinD, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J,Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM, eds. ClimateChange 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribu-tion of Working Group I to the Fifth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge Uni-versity Press; 2013.

20. Brocard E, Philipona R, Jeannet P, Begert M, Roma-nens G, Levrat G, Scherrer SC. Upper-air temperaturetrends above Switzerland 1959–2011. J Geophys Res2013, 118:4303–4317. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50438.

21. Schmidli J, Frei C. Trends of heavy precipitationand wet and dry spells in Switzerland during the20th century. Int J Climatol 2005, 25:753–771. doi:10.1002/joc.1179.

22. Hüsler F, Jonas T, Riffler M, Musial JP, Wunderle S.A satellite-based snow cover climatology (1985–2011)for the European Alps derived from AVHRRdata. Cryosphere Discuss 2013, 7:3001–3042. doi:10.5194/tcd-7-3001-2013.

23. Scherrer SC, Appenzeller C, Laternser M. Trendsin Swiss Alpine snow days: the role of local- andlarge-scale climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 2004,31:L13215. doi: 10.1029/2004GL020255.

24. Laternser M, Schneebeli M. Long-term snow climatetrends of the Swiss Alps (1931–99). Int J Climatol2003, 23:733–750. doi: 10.1002/joc.912.

25. Marty C. Regime shift of snow days in Switzer-land. Geophys Res Lett 2008, 35:L12501. doi:10.1029/2008GL033998.

26. Scherrer SC, Wüthrich C, Croci-Maspoli M, Weingart-ner R, Appenzeller C. Snow variability in the SwissAlps 1864–2009. Int J Climatol 2013, 33:3162–3173.doi: 10.1002/joc.3653.

27. Beniston M. Is snow in the Alps receding or disap-pearing? WIREs: Clim Change 2012, 3:349–358. doi:10.1002/wcc.179.

28. Serquet G, Marty C, Dulex JP, Rebetez M. Sea-sonal trends and temperature dependence ofthe snowfall/precipitation-day ratio in Switzer-land. Geophys Res Lett 2011, 38:L07703. doi:10.1029/2011GL046976.

29. Marty C, Blanchet J. Long-term changes in annualmaximum snow depth and snowfall in Switzerlandbased on extreme value statistics. Clim Change 2011,111:705–721. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0159-9.



30. Perroud M, Bader S. Klimaänderung in der Schweiz.Indikatoren zu Ursachen, Auswirkungen, Massnah-men. Umwelt-Zustand Nr. 1308. Bundesamt fürUmwelt, Bern, und Bundesamt für Meteorologie undKlimatologie, Zürich, 2013. 86.

31. Wild M. Global dimming and brightening: areview. J Geophys Res 2009, 114:1984–2012. doi:10.1029/2008JD011470.

32. Sanchez-Lorenzo A, Wild M. Decadal variationsof estimated surface solar radiation over Switzer-land since the late 19th century, 1885–2010.Atmos Chem Phys 2012, 12:8635–8644. doi:10.5194/acp-12-8635-2012.

33. Scherrer SC, Appenzeller C. Fog and low stratusover the Swiss Plateau - a climatological study. Int JClimatol 2014, 34:678–686. doi: 10.1002/joc.3714.

34. Philipona R, Dürr B, Marty C, Ohmura A, WildM. Radiative forcing - measured at Earth’s sur-face - corroborate the increasing greenhouseeffect. Geophys Res Lett 2004, 31:L03202. doi:10.1029/2003GL018765.

35. Della-Marta PM, Haylock MR, Luterbacher J, WannerH. Doubled length of western European summerheat waves since 1880. J Geophys Res Atmos 2007,112:D15103. doi: 10.1029/2007JD008510.

36. Schär C, Vidale PL, Lüthi D, Frei C, Häberli C, LinigerMA, Appenzeller C. The role of increasing temperaturevariability in European summer heatwaves. Nature2004, 427:332–336. doi: 10.1038/nature02300.

37. Rebetez M. Twentieth century trends in droughtsin southern Switzerland. Geophys Res Lett 1999,26:755–758. doi: 10.1029/1999GL900075.

38. Raible CC, Della-Marta P, Schwierz C, WernliH, Blender B. Northern Hemisphere extratropicalcyclones: a comparison of detection and trackingmethods and different reanalyses. Mon Weather Rev2008, 136:880–897.

39. Usbeck T, Wohlgemuth T, Dobbertin M, Pfis-ter C, Bürgi A, Rebetez M. Increasing stormdamage to forests in Switzerland from 1858 to2007. Agr Forest Meteorol 2010, 150:47–55. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.08.010.

40. Usbeck T, Wohlgemuth T, Pfister C, Volz R, BenistonM, Dobbertin M. Wind speed measurements andforest damage in Canton Zurich (Central Europe)from 1891 to winter 2007. Int J Climatol 2010,30:347–358. doi: 10.1002/joc.1895.

41. Brönnimann S, Martius O, von Waldow H, WelkerC, Luterbacher J, Compo GP, Sardeshmukh PD,Usbeck T. Extreme winds at northern mid-latitudessince 1871. Meteorol Z 2012, 21:13–27. doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0337.

42. Welker C, Martius O. Decadal-scale variability inhazardous winds in northern Switzerland since endof the 19th century. Atmos Sci Lett 2013. doi:10.1002/asl2.467.

43. Studer S, Stöckli R, Appenzeller C, Vidale PL. Acomparative study of satellite and ground-based phe-nology. Int J Biometeorol 2007, 51:405–414. doi:10.1007/s00484-006-0080-5.

44. Studer S, Appenzeller C, Defila C. Inter-annual vari-ability and decadal trends in alpine spring phenology.A multivariate analysis approach. Clim Change 2005,73:395–414. doi: 10.1007/s10584-005-6886-z.

45. Defila C, Clot B. Phytophenological trends in the SwissAlps, 1951–2002. Meteorol Z 2005, 14/2:191–196.

46. Rutishauser T, Luterbacher J, Defila JC, FrankD, Wanner H. Swiss spring plant phenology2007: Extremes, a multi-century perspective, andchanges in temperature sensitivity. Geophys Res Lett2008:L05703. doi: 10.1029/2007GL032545.

47. Defila C, Clot B. Phytophenological trends in Switzer-land. Int J Biometeorol 2001, 45:203–207. doi:10.1007/s004840100101.

48. Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N, Koch E, Aasa A,Ahas R, Alm-Kübler K, Bissollo P, Braslavska O,Briede A, et al. European phenological responseto climate change matches the warming pat-tern. Glob Change Biol 2006, 12:1–8. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x.

49. Giorgi F, Marinucci MR, Visconti G. A 2XCO2climate change scenario over Europe generated usinga limited area model nested in a general circulationmodel 2: climate change scenario. J Geophys Res 1992,97:10011–10028. doi: 10.1029/92JD00614.

50. Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, Lu X, Turnpenny JR, MitchellTD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D,Boorman P, et al. Climate Change Scenarios for theUnited Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Schoolof Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia,Norwich, UK, 2002, 120.

51. Gyalistras D, von Storch H, Fischlin A, Beniston M.Linking GCM-simulated climatic changes to ecosys-tem models: case studies of statistical downscaling inthe Alps. Clim Res 1994, 4:167–189.

52. Rotach MW, Marinucci MR, Wild M, Tschuck P,Ohmura A, Beniston M. Nested regional simulationof climate change over the Alps for the scenario ofa doubled greenhouse forcing. Theor Appl Climatol1997, 57:209–227. doi: 10.1007/BF00863614.

53. Schär C, Frei C, Lüthi D, Davies HC. Surrogateclimate change scenarios for regional climate mod-els. Geophys Res Lett 1996, 23:669–672. doi:10.1029/96GL00265.

54. Frei C, Schär C, Lüthi D, Davies HC. Heavy precipita-tion processes in a warmer climate. Geophys Res Lett1998, 25:1431–1434. doi: 10.1029/98GL51099.

55. Gyalistras D, Schär C, Davies HC, Waner H. FutureAlpine climate. In: Cebon P, Dahinden U, Davies HC,Imboden D, Jäger CC, eds. Views from the Alps.



Regional Perspectives on Climate Change. Cambridge,MA: MIT Press; 1998, 171–224.

56. Bader S, Kunz P. Climate Risks: The Challenge forAlpine Regions. Final Scientific Report, NRP 31. vdfHochschulverlag AG, Zürich, 2000, 291.

57. Wanner H, Gyalistras D, Luterbacher J, Rickli R,Salvisberg E, Schmutz C. Klimawandel im SchweizerAlpenraum. Switzerland: vdf Hochschulverlag AG;2000, 285.

58. OcCC. Klimaänderung Schweiz. Auswirkungen vonextremen Niederschlagsereignissen. Bern, 1998, 32.

59. Frei C. Die Klimazukunft der Schweiz – Eine prob-abilistische Projektion, 2004. Available at: www.occc.ch/Products/CH2050/CH2050-Scenarien.pdf.(Accessed September 27, 2013).

60. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB. ENSEMBLES: Cli-mate Change and its Impacts: Summary of Researchand Results from the ENSEMBLES Project. Exeter:Met Office Hadley Centre; 2009, 160.

61. IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical ScienceBasis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, ChenZ, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL,eds. Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cam-bridge University Press; 2007, 996.

62. Buser CM, Künsch HR, Lüthi D, Wild M, SchärC. Bayesian multi-model projection of climate: biasassumptions and interannual variability. Clim Dyn2009, 33:849–868. doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0588-6.

63. Buser CM, Künsch HR, Schär C. Bayesian multi-modelprojections of climate: generalization and applicationto ENSEMBLES results. Clim Res 2010, 44:227–241.doi: 10.3354/cr00895.

64. FOEN. Anpassung an den Klimawandel in der SchweizZiele, Herausforderungen und Handlungsfelder ErsterTeil der Strategie des Bundesrates vom 2. März, Bern,2012.

65. FOEN. Auswirkungen der Klimaänderung aufWasserressourcen und Gewässer. Syntheseberichtzum Projekt “Klimaänderung und Hydrologie in derSchweiz” (CCHydro). Bundesamt für Umwelt, Bern.Umwelt-Wissen, 2012, Nr. 1217, 76.

66. MeteoSwiss, eds. Klimaszenarien Schweiz - eineregionale Übersicht, Fachbericht MeteoSchweiz 2013,243, 36.

67. Zubler E, Croci-Maspoli M, Fischer A, Frei C, ScherrerS, Appenzeller C. Downscaling of climate changescenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpineregion. EGU General Assembly 2013, EGU2013-9837.

68. Fischer EM, Schär C. Future changes in daily summertemperature variability: driving processes and role fortemperature extremes. Clim Dyn 2009, 33:917–935.doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0473-8.

69. Fischer EM, Schär C. Consistent geographical patternsof changes in high-impact European heatwaves. NatGeosci 2010, 3:398–403. doi: 10.1038/ngeo866.

70. Rajczak J, Pall P, Schär C. Projections of extremeprecipitation events in regional climate simulations forEurope and the Alpine Region. J Geophys Res Atmos2013, 118:3610–3626. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50297.

71. Schwierz C, Heck P, Zenklusen E, Bresch DN,Schär C, Vidale PL, Wild M. Modelling Euro-pean winter storm losses in current and futureclimates. Clim Change 2010, 101:485–514. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9712-1.

72. Fischer AM, Weigel AP, Buser CM, Knutti R, Kün-sch HR, Liniger MA, Schär C, Appenzeller A. Cli-mate change projections for Switzerland based on aBayesian multi-model approach. Int J Climatol 2012,32:2348–2371. doi: 10.1002/joc.3396.

73. Bosshard T, Kotlarski S, Ewen T, Schär C. Spectralrepresentation of the annual cycle in the climate changesignal. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 2011, 15:2777–2788.doi: 10.5194 / hess-15-2777-2011.

74. Riedo M, Gyalistras D, Grub A, Rosset M, Fuhrer J.Modelling grassland responses to climate change andelevated CO2. Acta Oecolog 1997, 18:305–311.

75. Fischlin A, Gyalistras D. Assessing impacts of climaticchange on forests in the Alps. Glob Ecol Biogeogr Lett1997, 6:19–37. doi: 10.2307/2997524.

76. Abegg B. Klimaänderung und Tourismus - Klimafol-genforschung am Beispiel des Wintertourismus inden Schweizer Alpen. Schlussbericht NFP 31, vdfHochschulverlag AG, Zürich, 1996, 222.

77. Fuhrer J. Klimaänderung und Grünland. Schluss-bericht NFP 31. vdf Hochschulverlag AG, ETHZürich, Zürich, 1997, 311.

78. Flückiger S, Rieder P. Klimaänderung und Land-wirtschaft. Schlussbericht NFP 31. vdf Hochschulver-lag AG, ETH Zürich, Zürich, 1997, 222.

79. Meier R. Sozioökonomische Aspekte von Klimaän-derungen und Naturkatastrophen in der Schweiz,Schlussbericht NFP31. vdf Hochschulverlag AG an derETH Zürich, ISBN 3-7281-2603-9, 1998.

80. Thommen Dombois O, Braun-Fahrländer, C. Gesund-heitliche Auswirkungen der Klimaänderung mit Rele-vanz für die Schweiz. Literaturstudie im Auftrag derBundesämter für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft undfür Gesundheit. Basel, 2004.

81. Schweizerische Gesellschaft für Hydrologie undLimnologie. Auswirkungen der Klimaänderung aufdie Wasserkraftnutzung: Synthesebericht. Beiträgezur Hydrologie der Schweiz, Nr. 38, Bern, ISBN:978-3-033-02970-5, 2011, 26.

82. Gurtz J, Lang H, Verbunt M, Zappa M. The useof hydrological models for the simulation of climatechange impacts on mountain hydrology. In: HuberUM, Bugmann HKM, Reasoner MA, eds. Global


http://www.occc.ch/Products/CH2050/CH2050-Scenarien.pdf


Change and Mountain Regions: A State of KnowledgeOverview. Dordrecht: Springer; 2003, 343–354.

83. Bosshard T, Carambia M, Görgen K, Kotlarski S,Krahe P, Zappa M, Schär C. Quantifying uncertaintysources in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impactprojections. Water Resour Res 2013, 49:1–14. doi:10.1029/2011WR011533.

84. Müller H. Der Schweizer Tourismus im Klimawandel.Bern: Staatssekretariat für Wirtschaft SECO; 2011, 64.

85. Meier N, Rutishauser T, Pfister C, Wanner H, Luter-bacher J. Grape harvest dates as a proxy for SwissApril to August temperature reconstructions back toAD 1480. Geophys Res Lett 2007, 34:L20705. doi:10.1029/2007GL031381.

86. Holzkämper A, Fuhrer J, Frei C. Temperaturtrendsund Rebbau in der Schweiz. Schweizer Zeitschrift fürObst- und Weinbau 2013, 149:6–9.

87. Lenoir J, Gégout J-C, Guisan A, Vittoz P, WohlgemuthT, Zimmermann NE, Dullinger S, Pauli H, Willner W,Grytnes J-A, et al. Cross-scale analysis of the regioneffect on vascular plant species diversity in southernand northern European mountain ranges. PLoS One2010, 5:e15734. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0015734.

88. Kauserud H, Heegaard E, Büntgen U, Halvorsen R,Egli S, Senn-Irlet B, Krisai-Greilhuber I, Dämon W,Sparks T, Nordén J, et al. Warming-induced shiftin European mushroom fruiting phenology. ProcNatl Acad Sci U S A 2012, 109:14488–14493. doi:10.1073/pnas.1200789109.

89. Steger C, Kotlarski S, Jonas T, Schär C. Alpinesnow cover in a changing climate: a regional climatemodel perspective. Clim Dyn 2013, 41:735–754. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1545-3.

90. Holzkämper A, Calanca P, Fuhrer J. Statistical cropmodels: predicting the effects of temperature andprecipitation change. Clim Res 2012, 51:11–21. doi:10.3354/cr01057.

91. Holzkämper A, Calanca P, Fuhrer J. Identifyingclimatic limitations to grain maize yield poten-tials using a suitability evaluation approach.Agr For Meteorol 2013, 168:149–159. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.004.

92. Calanca PL, Fuhrer J. Swiss agriculture in a changingclimate: grassland production and its economic value.In: Haurie A, Viguier L, eds. The Coupling of Climateand Economic Dynamics, Advances in Global ChangeResearch, vol. 22. Dordrecht, NL: Springer; 2005,341–353.

93. Finger R, Lazzarotto P, Calanca P. Bio-economicassessment of climate change impacts on managedgrassland production. Agr Syst 2010, 103:666–674.doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2010.08.005.

94. Rammig A, Jonas T, Zimmermann NE, Rixen C.Changes in alpine plant growth under future cli-mate conditions. Biogeosciences 2010, 7:2013–24.doi: 10.5194/bg-7-2013-2010.

95. Fuhrer J, Smith P, Gobiet A. Implications of climatechange scenarios for agriculture in alpine regions – acase study in the Swiss Rhone catchment. Sci TotalEnviron 2013. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.06.038.

96. Fuhrer J, Beniston M, Fischlin A, Frei C, GoyetteS, Jasper K, Pfister C. Climate risks and theirimpact on agricultural land and forests inSwitzerland. Clim Change 2006, 79:79–102. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9106-6.

97. Torriani D, Calanca PL, Lips M, Ammann H, Benis-ton M, Fuhrer J. Using a statistical model for theregional assessment of climate change impacts on theproductivity of summer crops and associated produc-tion risk. Reg Environ Change 2007, 7:209–221. doi:10.1007/s10113-007-0039-z.

98. Calanca P. Climate change and drought occurrencein the Alpine region: how severe are becoming theextremes? Global Planet Change 2007, 57:151–160.

99. Fuhrer J, Jasper K. Demand and supply of water foragriculture: influence of topography and climate inpre-alpine, mesoscale catchments. Nat Resour 2012,3:145–155. doi: 10.4236/nr.2012.33019.

100. Fuhrer J, Calanca P. Klimawandel beeinflusst dasTierwohl bei Milchkühen. Agrarforschung 2012,3:132–139.

101. Wanner C. Climate change and soil erosion in Switzer-land. MSc Thesis, University of Zurich, Zurich,Switzerland, 2013, 62.

102. Klein T, Holzkämper A, Calanca P, Fuhrer J. Adapta-tion options under climate change for multifunctionalagriculture: a simulation study for western Switzer-land. Reg Environ Change 2014, 14:167–184. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0470-2.

103. Hanewinkel M, Cullmann DA, Schelhaas M-J, Nabu-urs G-J, Zimmermann NE. Climate change may causesevere loss in the economic value of European forestland. Nat Clim Change 2013, 3:203–207.

104. Elkin C, Guiterrez AG, Leuzinger S, Manusch C,Temperli C, Rasche L, Bugmann H. A 2∘C warmerworld is not safe for ecosystem services in the Euro-pean Alps. Glob Change Biol 2013, 19: 1827–1840.doi: 10.1111/gcb.12156.

105. Abegg B, Agrawala S, Crick F, de Montfalcon A.Climate change impacts and adaptation in wintertourism. In: Agrawala S, ed. Climate Change in theEuropean Alps. Adapting Winter Tourism and NaturalHazards Management. Paris: OECD; 2007, 25–60.

106. Gonseth C. Adapting ski area operations to a warmerclimate in the Swiss Alps through snowmaking invest-ments and efficiency improvements. EPFL, PhD Thesis,2008, 4139.

107. Rixen C, Teich M, Lardelli C, Gallati D, Pohl M, PützM, Bebi P. Winter tourism and climate change in theAlps: an assessment of resource consumption, snowreliability, and future snowmaking potential. Mt ResDev 2011, 31:229–236.



108. Scott D, Hall CM, Gössling S. Tourism and ClimateChange. London and New York: Routledge; 2012.

109. Faust AK, Gonseth C, Vielle M. Modélisation del’adaptation aux changements climatiques dans unmodèle économique intégré. Report for Federaloffice of the environment, Bern, 2012. Available at:http://www.bafu.admin.ch/klimaanpassung/11504.(Accessed September 29, 2013).

110. Gonseth C, Vielle M. Modeling Climate Change Adap-tation in a Computable General Equilibrium Model:An Application to Tourism. Presented at the EcoMod2011 - International Conference on Economic Model-ing, 2011.

111. Bretschger L, Ramer R, Schwark F. Growth effects ofcarbon policies: applying a fully dynamic CGE modelwith heterogeneous capital. Resour Energy Econ 2011,33:963–980. doi: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2011.06.004.

112. Bretschger L, Ramer R. Kosten und Nutzen einesehrgeizigen Klimaziels. In: Klimaziele und Emission-sreduktion. Eine Analyse und Politische Vision für dieSchweiz. Bern: OcCC – Beratendes Organ für Fragender Klimaänderung; 2012, 53–62.

113. Bucher R. Mitigation, Adaptation, TechnologicalChange and International Trade: Economic Aspects ofUnilateral Climate Policies. PhD Thesis, Wirtschafts-und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät, University ofBerne, Berne, Switzerland, 2011.

114. Ecoplan. Volkswirtschaftliche Auswirkungen derSchweizer Post-Kyoto Politik. Analyse mit einem Gle-ichgewichtsmodell für die Schweiz. BAFU - Bundesamtfür Umwelt, Bern, 2009.

115. Imhof J. Fuel exemptions, revenue recycling, equityand efficiency: evaluating post-kyoto policies forSwitzerland. Swiss J Econ Stat 2012, 148:197–227.

116. Sceia A, Altamirano-Cabrera JC, Schulz TF, Vielle M.Sustainability, neutrality and beyond in the frameworkof Swiss post-2012 climate policy. NCCR ClimateWorking Paper 2008-07, 2008.

117. Sceia A, Altamirano-Cabrera JC, Vielle M, WeidmannN. Assessment of acceptable Swiss post-2012 climatepolicies. Swiss J Econ Stat 2012, 148:347–380.

118. Sceia A, Altamirano-Cabrera JC, Frouet L, SchulzTF, Vielle M. Integrated assessment of Swiss GHGmitigation policies after 2012. Coupling the residentialsector. Environ Model Assess 2012, 17:193–207. doi:10.1007/s10666-011-9288-9.

119. Sceia A, Thalmann P, Vielle M. Assessment of theeconomic impacts of the revision of the Swiss CO2 lawwith a hybrid model. Report for Swiss FOEN, 2009.Available at: http://www.bafu.admin.ch/klima/12325.(Accessed September 23, 2013).

120. Bretschger L, Ramer R, Zhang L. Economic effects ofa nuclear phase-out policy: a CGE analysis. AnnualMeeting of the Swiss Society of Economics and Statis-tics, Neuchâtel, 2013.

121. Weidmann N, Kannan R, Turton H. Swiss climatechange and nuclear policy: a comparative analysisusing an energy system approach and a sectoral elec-tricity model. Swiss J Econ Stat 2012, 148:275–316.

122. Baranzini A, Ruette S. The Swiss climate policy: Onthe way to mitigation and prevention? InternationalAcademy of the Environment, Working Paper W 59,Geneva, 1998.

123. Baranzini A, Thalmann P, Gonseth C. Swiss climatepolicy: combining VAs with other instruments underthe Menace of a CO2 Tax. In: Baranzini A, ThalmannP, eds. Voluntary Approaches in Climate Policy. Chel-tenham and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Pub-lishing; 2004, 249–276.

124. Bahn O, Frei C. GEM-E3 Switzerland: A ComputableGeneral Equilibrium Model Applied for Switzerland.Paul Scherrer Institute, PSI. Bericht 2000, 00–01:61.

125. Bahn O. Combining policy instruments to curb green-house gas emissions. Eur Environ 2001, 11:163–171.doi: 10.1002/eet.258.

126. Bahn O. Swiss policy options to curb CO2 emissions:Insights from GEM-E3 Switzerland. In: Zaccour G, ed.Decision and Control in Management Science - Essaysin Honor of Alain Haurie. Norwell, MA: KluwerAcademic Publisher; 2002, 121–136.

127. Prognos. Standortbestimmung CO2-Gesetz. CO2-Perspektiven und Sensitivitäten. Rapport pour SwissAdministration for the Environment, Forests andLandscape, Basel; 2002.

128. Jochem E, Jakob M, eds. Energieperspektiven undCO2-Reduktionspotenziale in der Schweiz bis 2010.Wirtschaft - Energie - Umwelt. Zürich: vdf Hochschul-verlag AG; 2004, 296.

129. Arquit Niederberger A. The Swiss Climate Penny:an innovative approach to transport sector emis-sions. Transp Policy 2005, 12:303–313. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.05.003.

130. Sutter A. Schweizer Klimapolitik nach 2012, Master-arbeit am Departement für Umweltwissenschaften.Zürich: Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule(ETHZ); 2011.

131. Ingold K. Les mécanismes de décision: Le cas de lapolitique climatique Suisse. Politikanalysen. Zürich:Rüegger Verlag; 2008, 518.

132. Ingold K. Network Structures within Policy Pro-cesses: Coalitions, Power, and Brokerage in Swiss Cli-mate Policy. Policy Stud J 2011, 39:435–459. doi:10.1111/j.1541-0072.2011.00416.x.

133. Ingold K, Varone F. Treating Policy BrokersSeriously: Evidence from the Climate Policy. JPublic Adm Res Theory 2011, 22:319–346. doi:10.1093/jopart/mur035.

134. Swiss Confederation. Bundesgesetz vom 23.12.2011über die Reduktion der CO2-Emissionen(CO2-Gesetz). BBl 2012 113.


http://www.bafu.admin.ch/klimaanpassung/11504

http://www.bafu.admin.ch/klima/12325


135. Swiss Confederation. Adaptation to climate change inSwitzerland – Goals, challenges and fields of action.First part of the Federal Council’s strategy. Adoptedon 2 March 2012, 2012.

136. Ingold K, Pflieger G. Two levels, two strategies:explaining the gap between Swiss national and interna-tional responses towards Climate Change, submitted.

137. UVEK. Klimakonferenz: Stärkung der aktuellen Poli-tik und Planung für die Zeit nach 2020. Medienmit-teilung, 30.10.2013.

138. Stamm KR, Clark F, Eblacas PR. Mass communicationand public understanding of environmental problems:the case of global warming. Public Underst Sci 2000,9:219–237. doi: 10.1088/0963-6625/9/3/302.

139. Boykoff MT. We speak for the trees: mediareporting on the environment. Annu Rev EnvironResour 2009, 34:431–457. doi: 10.1146/annurev.environ.051308.0842.

140. Manzo K. Imaging vulnerability: the iconographyof climate change. Area 2010, 42:96–107. doi:10.1111/j.1475-4762.2009.00887.x.

141. Lorenzoni I, Pidgeon NF. Public views on climatechange: European and USA perspectives. Clim Change2006, 77:73–95. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9072-z.

142. Rebetez M. Public expectation as an element of humanperception of climate change. Clim Change 1996,32:495–509.

143. Tobler C, Visschers VHM, Siegrist M. Consumers’knowledge about climate change. Clim Change 2012,114:189–209. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0393-1.

144. AXA/IPSOS. Individual perceptions of climaterisks. Survey AXA/IPSOS, 2012. Available at:www.axa.com/lib/axa/uploads/cahiersaxa/Survey-AXA-Ipsos_climate-risks.pdf. (Accessed June 18,2013).

145. Franzen A, Vogl D. Two decades of measuring environ-mental attitudes: a comparative analysis of 33 coun-tries. Glob Environ Change 2013, 23:1001–1008. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.03.009.

146. Karrer SL. Swiss farmers’ perception of and responseto climate change, PhD Thesis. ETH No. 20410,Federal Technical University, Switzerland, 2012.

147. Studer F. Die Sachstandsberichte des IPCC in derSchweizer Presse (1990–2007). Eine Analyse derBerichterstattung in ausgewählten deutsch- undfranzösischsprachigen Schweizer Tageszeitungen.Saarbrücken: VDM Publishing; 2010, 136.

148. Zumbühl HJ, Steiner D, Nussbaumer SU. 19th cen-tury glacier representations and fluctuations in the cen-tral and western European Alps: an interdisciplinaryapproach. Global Planet Change 2008, 60:42–57. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.08.005.

149. Brönnimann S. Picturing climate change. Clim Res2002, 22:87–95. doi: 10.3354/cr022087.

150. Glaser R. Klimageschichte Mitteleuropas: 1200 JahreWetter, Klima, Katastrophen. 3 ed. Darmstadt: Primus;2013.

151. Pfister C. Die “Katastrophenlücke” des 20. Jahrhun-derts und der Verlust traditionalen Risikobewusst-seins. GAIA 2009, 18:239–246.

FURTHER READINGSwiss Database on Climate Impacts SWIDCHI (http://swidchi.epfl.ch) (Accessed March 11, 2014)


http://www.axa.com/lib/axa/uploads/cahiersaxa/Survey-AXA-Ipsos&uscore;climate-risks.pdf

Advanced Review Climate change in Switzerland: a review of ...raible/wcc280.pdf · Climate change...

Documents

Transcript of Advanced Review Climate change in Switzerland: a review of ...raible/wcc280.pdf · Climate change...