Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 1
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Transcript of Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 1
Satoshi Konishi
Institute for Sustainability Science,
Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University
Aug.12-13, 2011
Advanced energy technology for
sustainable development - Analysis of energy for sustainability-
Summer School AACIMP-2011
Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Ukraine
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Outline of the lecture
Physics Today, vol.55, No.4 (2002)
1. Sustainability, its concept and model in the ecological system
2. Global environment problem, resource and future energy
3. Effect of energy technology development
4. Introduction to fusion energy, principle, development status
and its application
5. Biomass conversion, hydrogen production and sustainable
energy system
6. Risk of energy supply chain and stability
7. Risk of energy generation, radiological hazard and other risk
and Safety concept
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Question:
Can technology development make the sustainable society?
-not for the short-term, but to support the development
without sacrificing environment, economy and citizen life.
Short-term technology, i.e. increased production may not provide
ultimate solution for sustainability.
What does technology have to do?
- to provide long-term solution for sustainability
But, the researchers do not understand how their work would
CHANGE the social system.
- regardless of the source, energy itself is not sustainable.
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1.What is sustainability?
Small quis
A cell of yeast doubles in an hour. Each cell consumes 10-10mol sugar to
make ethanol as follows;
C6H12O6 →2C2H5OH + 2CO2
Initial condition: ①glucose 18 g in 100 cc water, 1 cell of yeast
②glucose 90 g in 100 cc water, 1 cell of yeast
Describe what happens. Yeasts cannot live in 12 % ethanol or more. (log2=0.301, where 210=103)
Solutions:
1) cells n, time t(h), then number of yeast is n=2t
consumption of glucose is expressed : Σ10-10n(t-1)=Σ10-102t =10-10(2t-1 )(mol)
where glucose is 180g/moland ethanol is 46g/mol. In 100ccof water, maximum
allowable ethanol is 0.3mol equivalent, that comes from 0.15mol sugar.
( n(t-1)+n(t-2)+…+n2+n+1)(n-1) = nt-1
with initial condition ①, glucose0.1mol is completely exhausted at t=30
with ②, while sugar could be spent out 32.3hours, yeasts die at 30.7hour.
t=0
t-1
There are various ways to explain what happens.
Equations are strong to calculate the exact amount, but sometimes inadequate
to explain to others.
In any case, Yeasts extinct after the exponential increase in number by
1) running out of foods : RESOURCE CONSTRAINT
2) killed by pollution mad by themselves : ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM
Is Mankind free from this mechanism? After the exponential increase of
population, either
RESOURCE or
ENVIRONMENT
may kill us.
Can we acquire unlimited clean energy resource?
Does it assure SUSTAINABILITY?
Lessons to Learn
0)respond within the time and resources….imagination helps.
1)There could be several Solutions.
ーvarious approaches
ーequations and numbers are not perfect. Sometimes inadequate.
-equations are only useful when implication is well understood.
simple explanation works usually better.
2)Energy, environment and resource problem has a very simple
structure.
to know and to understand is different.
-analogy is a very strong tool.
-but,excessive simplification (sometimes on purpose) is
dangerous.
(Even for yeast, mother nature is not such simple.)
3)Real problem comes later.
“sustainability”
Stable system:
What comes in =what comes out
system
energy
materials waste
energy
enthropy
lifeforms
society
environment
structure
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Energy and system technology Input balances with output
In the steady state, they are stable
system
energy
matter waste
energy lifeform
society
environment
structure
Sustainable system
entropy
When species is regarded as a system, stable
population is a necessary criterion of sustainability.
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Water tank:system
energy balance?
material balance?
what else?
fish
bodily wastes
Water flea
algae
system
energy
materials waste
energy
lives
society environment
Question
・In a closed water system, algae, water flea, and fishes are
living.
-Describe the mechanism that this system runs stably without
any input/output of materials.
Wat is needed? If not how the system cannot be stable?
(1) energy balance
・input:light
・output:heat
(2) material recycle
(3) these are not enough!
heat
enthropy
2.What is different from the case of yeast in the last class?
3.What lesson do you have to learn?
system
energy
materials waste
energy
lives
society environment
fish
bodily wastes
Water flea
algae
・Steady state “sustainable” solution in a closed eco-system
Killifish Water flea
Algae CO2 O2
Heat
Entropy (1) Energy balance
・Energy input: light
・Energy output: heat and entropy Stable system : steady energy consumption
energy balance
entropy
Material
(resource)
waste
Detritus
tubificids
Sustainable material balance
(2) Material balance
・material cycle: waste used as resources
Energy and entropy exhaust required
(3) system balance
・stable population
mechanism to control relationships
Carbon cycle
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Thanks to National Institute of Radiological Science
Input = Output (quantity balance)
Stable System
Energy
Material Waste
Energy
( Enthropy)
Life Form
Species
ENVIRONMENT
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Sustainable species
① Environment is given
② Creatures either adapt or fail
③ better adaptation causes
evolution
④ Creatures disturb environment
① Environment changes with
creatures living there
② Combination of Reformed
environment and creature make
material cycle System
③If System is suitable for creature
and sustainable, it survives
④Sustainability is an accidental
consequence
Previous concepts
ENVIRONMENT Adaptation
disturbance
Creature
Present concept
ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENT’
favour
constraints
Creature reform
Material cycle System
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Environment from system view
① System has a process of the generation of nuclei, growth at the
front, and saturation.
② Growth speed is described with Logistic functions.
③Stable state is controlled by the constraints of supply and
environmental capacity
ENVIRONMENT
Energy
material
nuclei growth saturation
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Growth in the local environment
Each reformed
Material cycle
①nucli generation and their growth
environment and resource does not limit
②glowth look like exponential
③stabilized growth, resource and/or environment limits
④in the stable state, material recycle established with
other organisms sharing the same environment.
(when it is successful to survive)
⑤ genetic change is neutral and steady
①generation
②growth ③stabilization
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International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Logistic curve growth
Saturation occurs in all material cycle systems.
②generation of new species
①stable
③evolution (progress) of a species
④extinction
Same logistic process are applied all the species on the earth.
This mechanism well explains apparent evolution of the species.
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evolution
Problem:
We need energy. Mainly to sustain our body and activity.
-The energy drives the circulation of material in the
environment.
We humankind increased our activities with increased energy
demand and supply.
Energy technology is being developed and improving.
But, the researchers do not understand how their work would
CHANGE the social system.
- we have to understand how energy technology change our
world.
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Energy Demand
Energy
Development
Growth
(GDP)
Population
Sustainability
Economy growth
Energy supply causes population increase→energy demand
Even a clean energy is not sustainable under the industrial
revolution model.
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2.Resource, environment and
technology
・All the R&D programs are evaluated from the aspect of cost effectiveness = “Value for Money”. -All the energy technologies are evaluated from the
aspect of future social demand.
- “Effect” can be measured in monetary terms.
-However, market is not the only place where its value is
estimated.
- Energy supply affects environment, public and society
through various paths other than market. (Externality)
→Investment for research and development can be justified
from the expected effect to the future society.
Future energy must respond to the
demand of the society.
Evaluation of Energy International Symposium on Global Sustainability
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Population growth
Worlds population Anticipated to be ca. 10 billion
around 2050.
Increases in
developing countries and
urban area.
present present
Mostly urban
Developing countries
Logistic curve dy/dt = ky2(L-y) 2
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Electricity and living standard
• Living standard increase with power consumption up to ~4,000kWh
• In developing countries, people are considered to seek living standard corresponding to ~4,000kWh
as the generation capacity, it is ~1kW
Yearly power consumption per man (kWh)
● Developed Countries
● Middle & South America
● Asia
● Africa
● Middle East
● East Europe, Former Soviet
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United Nations estimated from education,
medical system and expected life, etc.
2100 28.5BTOE 1990
JAPAN
NIES/ASEAN
China
India Other
NA EU
RF East Europe
8.3BTOE
JAPAN
NA EU
Other
India
China
NIES/ASEAN
East Europe
RF
Current fusion studying countries will be minority in energy consumption
Developing(growing) countries will play a major role.
Future Energy Market International Symposium on Global Sustainability
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・What is R/P ratio? Exhausting year?
R/P = resource (t)/consumption(t/y)
Resource exhausts?
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Energy resources and R/P ratio by BP2005
oil gas coal uranium
41
67
164
85
change of R/P of oil
year
It is not a lack of materials
・R/P ratio shows the measure of demand to start exploration
→people will not start resource search until it is strongly
needed newly found resource may be sold after R/P years later.
→R/P ratio controls the searching activity.
・when resource price increases, expensive sources disregarded
as “resource” becomes available.(distant, poor, expensive,
unconventional..)
・increased price discourages consumption and promote savings.
・technology to find, produce, process and use improves always.
・resources are substituted.
“Stone age finished before stones run out”
→nevertheless resource constraints and sometimes run out
….particularly “renewables” would.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Never run out
(出典)The MOAI HP 20
16century, Easter Ilands
Moai.
Lost with exhausted energy resource.
(出典)The MOAI HP 22
Civilization can disappear within 100 years
By resource constraint.
CO2 emission International Symposium on Global Sustainability
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CO2 concentration in Air
human emission
year
Fossil consumption and CO2
1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 6 0
2 8 0
3 0 0
3 2 0
3 4 0
3 6 0
3 8 0
Fossil
consum
ption,
bill
ion t
on
year
fossil
Total energy
Industrial
revolution
1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0
4
8
0
CO
2 c
oncentr
atio
n
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
consumption of fossil fuel corresponds to the CO2
increase
Life Cycle Analyis of Energy
Life cycle CO2 emission
0
100
. 3 . 7
178
5 . 7 6 - 1 2
8 5
C O
8 1
2 7 0
200
1 6 3 4 . 3
P h
o t o
v o
l t a
i c (
Ind
ustr
ial)
Win
d
3 3 . 7
4 . 8 3 1 4 6
O i l
LN
G
4 0 1 2 2 4
C o
a l
200
300
Co
al/
CO
2 s
eq
ues
trati
on
Ph
oto
vo
ltaic
(ho
me)
LN
G/C
O2
se
qu
es
tra
tio
n
CO
2
Em
issio
n(g
/kw
h)
Fu
sio
n
Hyd
ro
Fis
sio
n
By Y.Uchiyama and K. Tokimatsu
Fossil should be replaced by new “clean”energy technology
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
World Energy Source
estimated actual
Oil shock
Oil shock
WW2
WW1
108
Ton
oil e
quiv
alen
t /y
ear
coal
oil
Natural gas
Renewables
nuclear
hydr
o
Fossil will remain, but poorer in quality and quantity. Demand will continue to increase. → new energy source will be strongly needed.
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element Existing in earth
crast[1000t]
x10 13.6
Existing
resource
[1000t]
resource(R)
[1000t]
Production
P[1000y/t]
R/P[y] 主な産出国
aluminum 3,240,000,000 28,000,00
0
23,000,000 114,009 202 豪州(38%)ギニア(13%)
iron 1,990,000,000 112,000,0
00
68,000,000 954,900 71 中国(25%)ブラジル(18%)
titanium 175,000,000 440,000 270,000 3,990 68 豪州(52%)ノルウェー(19%)
manganese 37,800,000 5,000,000 680,000 22,300 30 中国(27%)南ア共(15%)
zirconium 6,570,000 62,000 32,000 857 37 豪州(54%)南ア共(30%)
vanadium 5,370,000 27,000 10,000 35 286 南ア共(46%)ロシア(31%)
cromium 3,980,000 7,500,000 3,700,000 12,200 303 南ア共(41%)トルコ(16%)
nickel 2,990,000 140,000 40,000 1,010 40 ロシア(22%)カナダ(19%)
zinc 2,790,000 430,000 190,000 7,226 26 カナダ(17%)中国(14%)
copper 2,190,000 630,000 320,000 10,756 30 チリ(28%)米国(18%)
cobalt 995,000 9,000 4,000 27 148 ザンビア(29%)カナダ(21%)
niobium 796,000 4,200 3,500 16 219 ブラジル(85%)カナダ(15%)
lithium 796,000 9,400 3,700 21 176 ボリビア チリ
lead 517,000 120,000 65,000 2,738 24 米国(16%) 中国(15%)
boron 398,000 470,000 170,000 3,250 52 トルコ(48%)米国(36%)
beryllium 111,000 800 421 0.35 1200 米国(84%)ロシア(14%)
tin 79,600 12,000 7,700 206 37 中国(26%)
molybden 59,700 12,000 5,500 127 43 米国(44%)中国(20%)
tungsten 59,700 3,300 2,100 31.9 66 中国(28%)ロシア(9%)
bismuth 6,930[1] 260 110 4.21 26 メキシコ(39%)ペルー(24%)
silver 2,790 420 280 14.5 19 メキシコ(17%)ペルー(13%)
gold 159 72 45:含累積154
2.25 20 南ア共(22%)米国(14%)
Reduction of CO2 emission
Saving renewable
Saving Renewable Advanced nuclear
BAU
6,306 6,306
12,379
16,080
8,162
9,929
9,416
6,372
5,853
8,889
5,063
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO
2 em
issi
on
GT
C
BAU
year
Saving Renewable Advanced nuclear +hydrogen
Known technology is insufficient to achieve
zero emission eventually.
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・Public, society and government requires research is worth - for investment, more benefit will be eventually returned.
- damage on environment, threat for public safety
be reduced .
・Energy must be socially and economically feasible.
-economical competitiveness
-market eligibility
-social acceptance, environmental friendliness…
→technology will be compared with other energy sources,
funding must compete with other research programs.
→researchers must show the outcome will respond social
requirements.
from public viewpoint International Symposium on Global Sustainability
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World Energy Investment
Electricity investment will dominates. In each sub-sector, production
accounts for the majority of investment – except for electricity
Total investment: 16 trillion dollars
Oil 19%
Electricity
60%
Coal 2%Gas 19%
Other
Refining
E&D 72%
13%15%Other
Refining
E&D 72%
13%15%
E&D
LNG Chain
T&D and
Storage
55%
37%
8%
E&D
LNG Chain
T&D and
Storage
55%
37%
8%
Power
generation
T&D54%
46% Power
generation
T&D54%
46%
Mining
Shipping
and ports12%
88% Mining
Shipping
and ports12%
88%
Figure by J. Sheffield
2001-2030
Electricity is made by technology. Fuel is supplied by resource
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Almost half of energy investment requirements of
$16 trillion will be needed in developing countries
Figure by J. Sheffield
Developed countries research
and deploy new technology
20th century 21st century
Developed countries research
Developing country use.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
OECD North
America
China OECD Europe
Other Asia
Africa
Russia
Middle
East
OECD Pacific
Other Latin America
India Other
transition economies
Brazil cum
ula
tive
in
vest
men
t (b
illio
n d
olla
rs)
0
5
10
15
20 sh
are in g
lob
al investm
ent (%
)
R&D investment 0.27%GDP in Thai, Japan 3%, by Thai report.
Energy Investment by Region
2001-2030
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Energy Options for Sustainability
・Cost of technology decreases
・Cost of resources increases
・All energy technology have
both features
・External cost sometimes
plays major role
・Various constraints may
affect
・Energy may not be selected by
market.
-government
-social option
Sum of production
price
Technical
improvement
Resource
constraint technology
fossil
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Technology and resource
Price of fossil energy
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 20700
10
20
30
40
50
60
新エ ネ 促進BAUコス
ト(
1997年
価格
) ¢
/kW
h
年
Cost of the resource always
increases because of
consumption.
Cost of technology always
decreases due to the
improvement
Cost of PV
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・clean.
・ abundant.
・ economical.
-However, market is not the only place where its value is
estimated.
- Energy supply affects environment, public and society
through various paths other than market. (Externality)
- Demand does not guarantee the sales.
Supply chain constraint
→Limitation
→glow speed
Future energy must respond to the
demand of the society.
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Innovative technology provides clean energy
to respond demands.
ーmay we satisfy the demands if energy is clean?
ーdoesn’t clean energy jeopardize sustainability?
-does it analyze all the risks?
ー is transition (growth) always good?
…good index for “sustainability” yet to find.
Sustainability question
Impacts of the energy technology can be analyzed
Developers and users are different by
area and generation.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science