Advanced attribution model

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Advanced Attribution Model, Analytics Summit, November 13 th , 2014 Aspa Lekka [email protected]

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Approaches for a data driver attribution model

Transcript of Advanced attribution model

Page 1: Advanced attribution model

Advanced Attribution Model,Analytics Summit, November 13th , 2014

Aspa Lekka [email protected]

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Foodpanda is a global online food delivery marketplace

Company:

www.foodpanda.com

Founded in 2012

Present in more than 45 countries

Business Intelligence & Analytics:

Google Analytics and Google Analytics Premium

Team of 8 people

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TVMobile App Ad

SEM Conversion

Customer Journey

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Multiple channels:

•SEM•Display•CRM•Affiliate•Radio•Price Comparison•…..

Marketing budget allocation

Get new visitors

AWARENESS

Maximize orders

ACTION

0 50 100 150 200 250

Search

Price comparison

Affiliate

Display

Direct

Social

Last click- orders TOTAL: 503

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Search

Price comparison

Affiliate

Display

Direct

Social

Last click - orders TOTAL: 438

Awareness

Interest

Desire

Action

Why attribution model?

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Every channel gets attributed the correct orders

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Calculating the CAC for Marketing Campaigns

NEW CUSTOMERS ACQUIRED

Campaign 1 BUDGET Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday TOTAL

Monday 1,000 € 13 13

Tuesday 1,100 € 21 21

Wednesday 900 € 22 22

Thuerday 1,000 € 25 25

Friday 850 € 23 23

Saturday 1,200 € 24 24

Sunday 1,000 € 26 26

CAC

77 €

52 €

41 €

40 €

37 €

50 €

38 €

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How efficient was the Marketing Budget?

NEW CUSTOMERS ACQUIRED

Campaign 1 BUDGET Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday TOTAL

Monday 1,000 € 10.5 2.9 14.5 10.8 12.3 19.0 9.0 79.0

Tuesday 1,100 € 10.5 6.6 3.9 13.3 3.1 6.2 13.9 57.4

Wednesday 900 € 5.2 4.1 8.0 9.4 8.1 18.1 17.8 70.6

Thuerday 1,000 € 12.7 20.2 17.3 5.8 3.9 4.0 9.7 73.6

Friday 850 € 4.7 7.8 12.0 6.6 6.0 20.5 2.6 60.2

Saturday 1,200 € 19.4 16.7 7.6 17.6 19.0 6.1 16.1 102.4

Sunday 1,000 € 7.4 2.2 5.9 15.2 13.4 16.4 11.7 72.1

CAC*

13 €

17 €

14 €

14 €

17 €

10 €

14 €

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Data Driven Models for Attribution

SHAPLEY VALUE 1.

SURVIVAL ANALYSIS2.

PATH ANALYSIS NETWORKSSTRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING

3.

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The Shapley Value

SHAPLEY VALUE

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The Shapley value is a way to assign credit among a group of “players” who cooperate for a certain end

An example:

• 3 players(2 with right glove and 1 with left glove)

• Goal: Form a pair• Assign credit to each player after forming a pair

There are two possible pairs that we can form and in both of them, Player 1 needs to be involved. Therefore, Player 1, is of more importance compared to Player 2 or Player 3. Consequently, when sharing the profits, he should get a bigger part compared to Player 2 (if we case 1 is true) or Player 3 (if case 2 is true)

The Shapley Value

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• 3 channels

• A click chain that consists of these 3 channels and led to 500 transactions

• Evaluate the contribution of each channel to these 500 transactions

100

125

50

270

375

350

500

The Shapley Value

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SEM100

DISPLAY270-100=170

SEO

500-270=230100

125

50

270

375

350

500

SEM100

SEO375-100=275

DISPLAY

500-375=125

DISPLAY125

SEM270-125=145

SEO

500-270=230

DISPLAY125

SEO350-125=225

SEM

500-350=150

SEO50

SEM375-50=325

DISPLAY

500-375=125

SEO50

DISPLAY350-50=300

SEM

500-350=150

Calculating the Shapley Value

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Calculating the Shapley Value

SEM100

DISPLAY270-100=170

SEO

500-270=230

SEM100

SEO375-100=275

DISPLAY

500-375=125

DISPLAY125

SEM270-125=145

SEO

500-270=230

DISPLAY125

SEO350-125=225

SEM

500-350=150

SEO50

SEM375-50=325

DISPLAY

500-375=125

SEO50

DISPLAY350-50=300

SEM

500-350=150

SEM’s expected marginal contribution is:

DISPLAY’s expected marginal contribution is:

SEO’s expected marginal contribution is:

SEM162

(0.32)

DISPLAY162

(0.32)

SEO176

(0.36)

500 orders attributed to the three channels :

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Survival Analysis

SURVIVAL ANALYSIS

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Target population

Treatment 1

Dead

Alive

Treatment 2

Dead

Alive

Event

Event

TIME

What is the patient’s probability to be still alive after 20 years?

Survival Analysis

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Visitors

Channel 1

Conversion

NO Conversion

Channel 2

Conversion

NO Conversion

Event

Event

TIME

What is the visitors’ probability to convert after 30 days or 5 visits?

Survival Analysis

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Day1Day2 Day5 Day2

Day3 Day7 Day8

DAY 1 / VISIT 1

0 1 0 1

DAY 3 / VISIT 3

0 1

DAY 6 / VISIT 6

0 1

DAY 9 / VISIT 9

Survival Analysis

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VIS

ITO

RS

TIMESTART END

: censored observation

: event (conversion)

Censored observation:

There is not “time to event” recorded because:

•Loss of follow up Drop out Conversion due to a

cause that is out of our interest

•End of the study

Survival Analysis

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Estimate time-to-event for a group of individuals, such as time until a visitor purchases

To compare time-to-event between two or more groups, such as visitors that have clicked on a Display ad compared to visitors that have not clicked on a Display ad.

To assess the relationship of co-variables to time-to-event, such as: does number of clicks, pages viewed, or time on site effect the decision to purchase?

Survival Analysis

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DATA DRIVEN MODELS

ADJUSTED TO EACH CASE

LIMITED TUTORIALS

ADJUST FORMULAS TO YOUR DATA

EASY TO SET UP(QUITE)

LINK ADS WITH ONSITE BEHAVOR

FIND COST EFFICIENT CLICK CHAINS

MERGE OFFLINE AND ONLINE DATA

Evaluation & Suggestions

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Thank you!Aspa Lekka

[email protected]