Addressing the issue of Prosopis juliflora in Ethiopia...CARIAA-ASSAR Working Paper 5 About the...

Addressing the issue of Prosopis juliflora in Ethiopia CARIAA-ASSAR Working Paper

Mark Tebboth, Mohammed Assen, Mekonnen Degefu, and Roger Few

CARIAA-ASSAR Working Papers

Tebboth, M. G. L., Assen,M.,Degefu,MA.,Few,R.2019.AddressingtheissueofProsopisjuliflorainEthiopia.CARIAA-ASSARWorkingPaper.InternationalDevelopmentResearchCentre,Ottawa,CanadaandUKAid,London,UnitedKingdom.Availableonlineat:www.assar.uct.ac.zaAboutCARIAAWorkingPapersThis series is based onwork funded by Canada’s International Development ResearchCentre(IDRC)andtheUK’sDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(DFID)throughtheCollaborativeAdaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA). CARIAA aims to build theresilience of vulnerable populations and their livelihoods in three climatechange hot spots inAfricaandAsia. The program supports collaborative research to informadaptationpolicy andpractice.Titlesinthisseriesareintendedtoshareinitialfindingsandlessonsfromresearchandbackgroundstudiescommissionedbytheprogram.Papersareintendedtofosterexchangeanddialoguewithinscienceandpolicycirclesconcernedwithclimatechangeadaptationinvulnerabilityhotspots.AsaninterimoutputoftheCARIAAprogram,theyhavenotundergoneanexternalreviewprocess.Opinionsstatedarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflectthepoliciesoropinionsofIDRC,DFID,orpartners.Feedbackiswelcomedasameanstostrengthentheseworks:somemaylaterberevisedforpeer-reviewedpublication.ContactCollaborativeAdaptationResearchInitiativeinAfricaandAsia,c/oInternationalDevelopmentResearchCentrePOBox8500,Ottawa,ONCanadaK1G3H9Tel:(+1)613-236-6163;Email:[email protected] Working Paper is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike4.0InternationalLicense.Articlesappearinginthispublicationmaybefreelyquotedand reproduced provided that i) the source is acknowledged, ii) the material is not used forcommercial purposes,and iii) any adaptations of thematerial are distributed under the samelicense.

©2018InternationalDevelopmentResearchCentreCoverphotos:Top:©PANOS/Jean-LeoDugastBottom:©PANOS/AbbieTrayler-SmithLeft:©BlaneHarvey

About ASSAR

AllauthorsofthisworkingpaperareteammembersintheASSAR(AdaptationatScaleinSemi-Arid Regions) project, one of four hotspot research projects in CARIAA. Theinternational and interdisciplinary ASSAR team comprises a mix of research andpractitionerorganisations,andincludesgroupswithglobalreachaswellasthosedeeplyembedded in theircommunities.TheASSARconsortium isapartnershipbetween fiveleadmanaginginstitutions-theUniversityofCapeTown(SouthAfrica),theUniversityofEast Anglia (United Kingdom), START (United States of America), Oxfam GB (UnitedKingdom)andtheIndianInstituteforHumanSettlements(India)–and12partners–theUniversityofBotswana,UniversityofNamibia,DesertResearchFoundationofNamibia,Reos Partners, the Red Cross/Crescent Climate Centre, University of Ghana, ICRISAT,UniversityofNairobi,UniversityofAddisAbaba,WatershedOrganisationTrust,IndianInstitute for Tropical Meteorology, and the Ashoka Trust for Ecology and theEnvironment.

Workinginsevencountriesinsemi-aridregions,ASSARseekstounderstandthefactorsthat have prevented climate change adaptation from being more widespread andsuccessful. At the same time, ASSAR is investigating the processes – particularly ingovernance–thatcanfacilitateashiftfromad-hocadaptationtolarge-scaleadaptation.ASSAR is especially interested inunderstanding people'svulnerability, both in relation toclimaticimpactsthatarebecomingmore severe, and to generaldevelopment challenges. Throughparticipatory work from 2014-2018, ASSAR aims to meet theneeds of government andpractitioner stakeholders, to helpshape more effective policyframeworks, and todevelopmorelastingadaptationresponses.

Whyfocusonsemi-aridregions?

Semi-arid regions (SARs) arehighly dynamic systems thatexperience extreme climates,adverse environmental change,and a relative paucity of natural

CARIAA-ASSAR Working Paper

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resources.Peopleherearefurthermarginalisedbyhighlevelsofpoverty,inequalityandrapidlychangingsocio-economic,

governance and development contexts. Climate change intersects with these existingstructural vulnerabilities and can potentially accentuate or shift the balance betweenwinnersandlosers.Althoughmanypeopleintheseregionsalreadydisplayremarkableresilience,thesemultipleandofteninterlockingpressuresareexpectedtoamplifyinthecoming decades. Therefore, it is essential to understand what facilitates theempowermentofpeople,localorganisationsandgovernmentstoadapttoclimatechangeinawaythatminimisesvulnerabilityandpromoteslong-termresilience.

www.assar.uct.ac.za


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About the authors

MarkTebbothisalecturerintheSchoolofInternationalDevelopmentattheUniversityofEastAnglia,UK

Contact:[email protected]

MekonnenAdnewDegefuisaresearcheratAddisAbabaUniversityandDebreMarkosUniversity.


MohammedAssenisaProfessorofPedologyatAddisAbabaUniversityandtheAAUleadforASSAR.


RogerFewisProfessorialResearchFellowattheSchoolofInternationalDevelopmentattheUniversityofEastAnglia



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Contents

AboutASSAR....................................................................................................................3

Abouttheauthors..........................................................................................................5

Contents............................................................................................................................6

ListofFiguresandTables............................................................................................6

1.ExecutiveSummary..................................................................................................7

2.Introduction................................................................................................................8

3.Spread,distributionandrateofchange..............................................................9

4.Impacts.......................................................................................................................11

5.Managementapproachesandstudysites.........................................................13

6.Resultsofstudy........................................................................................................16

7.Broaderimplications..............................................................................................19

List of Figures and Tables

Figure1:Studysite,SouthernAfar...............................................................................................8

Figure2:LULCclassesin2016.......................................................................................................9

Figure3:ExtentofP.julifloradominatedlandcoverina)1987,b)2002,andc)

2016...........................................................................................................................................................10

Figure4a:Hypotheticalmanagementscenarios.........................................................13-15

Figure5:Scenarioscoringcomparingdifferentcommunities....................................16

Figure6:First-choicepreferencescomparingdifferentcommunities....................16

Figure7:Scenarioscoringcomparingcommunities,governmentandNGOs......18

Figure8:First-choicepreferencescommunities,governmentandNGOs..............18

Table1:MainreportednegativeimpactsofP.juliflora...................................................11

Table2:MostcommonlyperceivedpositiveusesassociatedwithP.juliflora....12

Table3:Characteristicsofthecommunitystudysites/kebeles...............................15

1. Executive Summary

• TheinvasiveplantspeciesProsopisjulifloraiscontinuingtoexpandintonewareaswithintheMiddleAwashValley.P.julifloraisahugeissueforpopulationsinsemi-aridlands,reducingpastureforlivestock,blockingaccesstowater,causingphysicalharm,andcreatingothernegativeimpacts.

• Ourresearchshowsthattherearedifferencesbetweenandwithincommunitiesforpreferredmanagementinterventions.Withincommunitiesthesedifferencesareinfluencedbyage,gender,locationandmainlivelihood.Government,non-governmentalorganisations(NGOs)andindividualcommunitiesalsohavedifferentpreferencesforhowtodealwithP.juliflora.

• ItisimportanttorecognisethattherearedifferentviewsandperspectivesonthebestwaystomanageoruseP.julifloraandtheseperspectivesneedtobeexplicitlyacknowledgedinthedesignandimplementationofmanagementstrategiesandinterventions.Theseissueshighlighttheimportanceofconsultingandengaginginwaysthataresensitivetodifferenceswithinandbetweencommunities.

• Themanagementofalieninvasivespecies,specificallyP.juliflora,requiresanationalplatform.Thisplatformwouldsupportcoordinationamongstakeholders,provideaforumforsharingandexchanginginformation,knowledge,learningandapproaches,andincreasethechancesofsustainingfunding.Toinitiatethisplatformandtomakeitmeaningfulrequirescommitmentnationallyandchangesinpolicyandtheallocationofresources.

• Thereisacleargapconcerningthetransferandupdateofknowledgebetweenresearchers,practitioners,policymakers,andcommunities.Understandinghowtobetterintegrateresearchandresearchoutputsintothedesignandimplementationofinterventionsandviceversaisnecessarytoenhanceeffortstomanagealieninvasivespecies.


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2. Introduction

ThisresearchbriefpresentsasummaryofworkonP.julifloracarriedoutunderthefive-yearASSARproject(AdaptationatScaleinSemi-AridRegions,2014-2018).TheresearchfocusesonandwasundertakeninAwashFentaleandAmibaraworedasintheMiddleAwashValley(seeFigure1),withadditionaldatacollectionatregionalandnationallevels.Thebriefpresentsthemainfindingsunderfourheadings:(1)

Spread,distributionandrateofchangeofP.juliflora,(2)impacts,(3)viewsonmanagementoptions,and(4)broaderimplications.Thefindingsincludedatafrom55keyinformantinterviews,foursemi-structuredgroupinterviews(totalof32people),threeworkshopswithaffectedcommunities(totalling60people),oneworkshopwith7representativesfromNGOsandonewith12representativesfromlocalandgovernmentandtwofurtherstakeholdermeetingsatlocal(33participants)andnationallevel(14participants).

Figure1:Studysite,SouthernAfar


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3. Spread, distribution and rate of change

Researchonlanduseandlandcover(LULC)changewasundertakeninAmibaraandAwashFentaleworedasintheMiddleAwashValley,SouthernAfar.ThesetwoworedasarealreadyheavilyinvadedbyP.juliflora.

Duringthelast29years,cultivatedlandexpandedatarateof2.6%peryearwhileforestlandandgrasslandhaveshrunkenatarateof1.2%peryearand2.4%peryearrespectively.ShrublandthatcontainsP.julifloraspecieshadthelargestareacoverage(Figure2).TheextentofP.julifloraexpansionisshowninFigure3(overleaf).P.julifloracoveragehasincreasedfromlessthan3.7%in1987,to21.3%in2002andto37.9%in2016.Asconfirmedfromfieldverification,mostoftheexpansionwasobservedalongriverbanksandroads,andingrazinglandsandsettlementareas.TheevidencecollectedthroughtheLULCresearchandthatfromtheaffectedpopulationsconfirmsthatP.julifloraisanaggressiveinvaderthatiscontinuingtoexpandrapidlyintonewlocationswhilstconsolidatingitspresenceinexistinglocations.

Figure2:LULCclassesin2016


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Figure3:ExtentofP.julifloradominatedlandcoverina)1987,b)2002,andc)2016


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4. Impacts

P.julifloraisanecosystemengineerandishavingasignificantimpactontheecologyandpopulationsintheaffectedlocations,threateningnativefloraandfaunaaswellaslandcriticalforlivelihoodssuchasgrazingandcroplandareasandwaterpoints.Broadlyspeaking,P.juliflora’simpactsasidentifiedmembersofaffectedcommunitiescanbegroupedunderthreeheadings:(1)impactsonpopulation,(2)impactsonlivestockandfarming,and(3)impactsonecology(seeTable1).

PeopleRiskofinjuryfromplant:injuryfromthethorns;heightenedriskforelderlypopulations.RiskofinjuryfromwildanimalsthatshelterinP.juliflorathickets:reportedincreaseinlargepredatorsandsnakes.Ripsandtearsclothing.Lossofnativeflora:affectspeople’ssenseofplaceandconnectionwiththelandscape.Shortageofconstructionmaterialsfortraditionalhouses:P.juliflora,whenused,wasreportedtobenotasdurable(lasting3-6monthscomparedtoroughly12months);reportedasparticularlyaffectingwomen’saccesstoconstructionmaterials.Relocationofdwellingsduetoinvasionofplantintosettlements.IrritationassociatedwithP.juliflorawoodasitbreaksdown:whenusedtoconstructdwellings,dustcausedbyP.juliflorabreakingdownleadstoskinirritation;tendstoaffectwomenandyoungchildrenwhospendmoretimeindoors.Diversionofresourcestocontrolinvasion:timeandenergyusedtokeepcriticalareasfreeofplant.Increasingscarcityofresources:livestockforcedtomigratefurther(impactsonyoungermen)andleadstoincreasedriskofconflict(butthelatternotwidelyreported).Shortageofmilkandmeat:becauselivestockhastomigratefurtherforlongerforpasture.Blocksaccessroutesforpeople:particularlyimpactswomenwhoareresponsibleforwatercollection.Riskstochildren:fewersafespacesforrecreationandincreasedriskofattackfromwildanimals;reportedincreasesinparentalanxiety.Livestock/FarmingAnimalssufferphysicalinjuryfromthorns.LivestockriskinjuryordeathfromwildanimalsshelteringinP.juliflorathickets:exacerbatedasP.julifloradecreasesabilityofherderstoscanhorizonfordangers.Reductioninavailabilityofpastureleadstodeclineinqualityandquantityoflivestock.Blockedmovementcorridorsforlivestock.Difficultforanimalstoaccesswaterpoints.Healthcomplicationsassociatedwithlivestockeatingthepodsinlargequantities.PodsofP.julifloraareattractiveforlivestock.Problemsassociatedwhenconsumedinlargequantities.Reducesproductivityoffarmland:resourcesrequiredtokeepfarmlandfreeofP.juliflora.

Table1:MainreportednegativeimpactsofP.juliflora(datafrom60participants)


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EcologyOutcompetesindigenousflora:P.julifloraiswellsuitedtoaridconditionsandtemperatureextremesandsuppressesgrowthofotherplants.Reducesavailabilityofwater/soilmoisture:plant’sextensiverootsystemmaximisesitsextractionofsoilmoisture.Changeinambientconditions:somerespondentsperceivedthatP.julifloraincreasesambienttemperatureand/orreducesairflow.Increaseinmosquitoesassociatedwithincreasinghumidity.Increaseinlargepredatorsassociatedwithmorefavourablehabitats.

Table1(cont.):MainreportednegativeimpactsofP.juliflora(datafrom60participants)

Notwithstandingthenegativeimpacts,arangeofpositiveattributesarealsoassociatedwithP.juliflora(althoughthisisdependentonthedegreetowhichtheplantispresentintheenvironment)intheMiddleAwashValley(seeTable2).

Use Numberofgroups*

Comment

Fencingtodemarcatedwellingboundariesandforanimalenclosures

5outof12 Notpreferredassupportsencroachmentoftheplantintosettlements.

Houseconstruction 6outof12 NotasdurableasnativewoodsAsshadeforpeopleandanimals 4outof12 Notviewedasfavourablycomparedto

nativespecies.Firewood 8outof12 Notviewedasfavourablycomparedto

nativespecies.Charcoalmaking 7outof12 Notviewedasfavourablycomparedto

nativespecies.Animalfeed(Prosopispods) 3outof12 UtilisedonlyintimesofscarcitySoilconservation 2outof12 Disputedwithintheproponents’groups

Table2:MostcommonlyperceivedpositiveusesassociatedwithP.juliflora(datafrom60participants).

Insummary,whilsttheplanthaspositiveecologicalattributes(potentiallyprotectingagainstsoilerosion,forfloodcontrol,andtocombatsalinesoils)andbenefitsforpeople(shadefromsunlightandforprivacy,greenness,firewoodandcharcoalandasafoodsourceforlivestock),themajorityofparticipantsintheresearchfeltthat,duetothesignificantimpactsonlocalenvironmentalservices(particularlyonrangelandandwaterresources)andlivelihoods(health,incomeandfoodsecurity),P.julifloraisamajorsocial-ecologicalissuerequiringurgentattention.

*Ineachcommunityworkshop,participantsweresplitintofourgroups(oldermen,olderwomen,youngermen,andyoungerwomen),thedataaboveshowsthenumberofgroupsthatmentionedtheuseslisted.


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5. Management approaches and study sites

ThroughtheresearchundertakenbyASSAR,thevaluesandpreferencesofdifferentgroupsofstakeholderstowardsfourhypothesizedmanagementoptionswereexplored(seeFigures4a–4d).Thegroupsofstakeholdersconsultedincludedgroupsofyoungerwomen,youngermen,olderwomen,andoldermenfromthreecommunitiesaffectedbyP.julifloraandrepresentativesfromNGOsandlocalgovernment.Theresearchusedhypotheticalmanagementinterventionstosupportstakeholderstothinkthroughanddiscussthepotentialimplicationsofthoseinterventions(thestrengthsandweaknessesofdifferentapproachesandwhowouldbelikelytodowell/notwellifthescenariowasimplemented).

Scenario 1: Containment • ThemainfocusofmanagementactivitiesisonlimitingthespreadofP.juliflora

andcontainingtheinvasion.

• LocalnetworksareformedtopreventspreadintoareasthatarehighlyvaluedandcurrentlyfreefromP.juliflora(butsusceptibletoinvasion)

• Existinginfestationsaretackledtopreventexpansionbycontrollingtheouterperimeter

• Greatereffortsaremadetoreducerelianceonpodsforfeedandattimesofscarcity(duringthedryseasonanddroughts)

Figure4a:Hypotheticalmanagementscenario1

Scenario 2: Targeted eradication • Themainfocusofmanagementactivitiesisontargetederadication:thatis

clearingP.juliflorainareasofhighvalueandnotinterveninginareasconsideredlowvalue

• Wherepracticable,mechanizedorbiologicalcontrolsareusedandinotherlocationsmorelabour-intensivemethodsareemployed(suchascuttingandburning,chemicalapplicationetc.)


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• Aslandmustbeutilizedtopreventreinvasion,theareastargetedforclearancetendtobethosethataresuitableformoreintensivelanduses(suchasfarming)

Figure4b:Hypotheticalmanagementscenario2

Scenario 3: Large-scale, commercial utilization • P.juliflorainfestationsaremanagedwiththeintentionofproducingauseable

biomassresourceatacommercialscale

• P.julifloraisactivelymanagedandcontrolledinlocationsclosetotheroadnetworkandaroundbiomassplants

• Inmoreremotelocations,whereexploitationisnotpossible,theplantcontinuestospread

• There is not much support provided for affected communities outside of areas that are suitable for the commercial exploitation

Figure4c:Hypotheticalmanagementscenario3


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Scenario 4: Community-focused utilization • Communitiesarecentraltotheoverarchingpolicygoalofutilisation,controlis

encouragedbycreatingafavourableenvironmentthroughwhichcommunitiescanderivelivelihoodsfromP.juliflora

• Themainfocusofutilizationeffortsisthroughsmaller-scaleexploitationbycooperativesandbusinessesthatproducecharcoal,flour,animalfeed,etc.

• Highinputsofskills,knowledgeandlabouringeographicallydispersedlocations

• AttemptstocontrolP.julifloraarewidespreadasaffectedcommunitiesleadtheeffortsbutverydenseandaggressiveinfestationsaredifficulttotackle

Figure4d:Hypotheticalmanagementscenario4

TheresearchworkedintenselywiththreecommunitieswithinAwashFentaleandAmibaraWoredas(seeTable3).Thecommunitiesrepresenteddifferentlivelihoods(frompastoraltomoresedentaryandfarmingbased)andproximitytourbanareas(frommoreremotetocloseproximitytoalargetown).Inaddition,wealsoworkedwithgroupsofrepresentativesfromlocalgovernmentandNGOsaswellasotherstakeholder.

Studysite/Kebele

Woreda Livelihoodtype

Furtherinformation

Alola AwashFentale

Pastoral LocatedclosetomaintownofAwashSabatKilo.Prosopisispresentintheareabutisyettoformverydensethicketsproximatetothesettlement

Bedula’ali AwashFentale

Agro-pastoral

Allhouseholdshavebeenallocatedfarmlandandthelandisusedmoreintensivelywithirrigatedsugarcaneandcottonplantationsclosetothesettlement.TheareaaroundthesettlementisdenselyinvestedwithProsopis

GonitaBirka Amibara Pastoral Moreremotesettlementandtheonemostreliantonpastoralism.LandaroundthesettlementisrangelandofwhichlargeareasareinvestedwithProsopis.Insomeareasthisisimpedingmovementandmigrationcorridors

Table3:Characteristicsofthecommunitystudysites/kebeles


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6. Results of study

Age, gender, and location/ livelihood influence the perception of trade-offs Acrossthethreecommunities,eitherscenario3(commercialutilization)orscenario2(targetederadication)scoredthehighestandthescenariosreceivedthegreatestnumberoffirst-choicepreferences(seeFigures5and6).

Figure5:Scenarioscoring(datafrom60participants),combinedscoresshowmeanoffoursub-groups(oldermen,olderwomen,youngermen,andyoungerwomen)

Figure6:First-choicepreferences(datafrom60participants),combinedpreferenceshowmeanoffoursub-groups(oldermen,olderwomen,youngermen,andyoungerwomen)

InAlola,scenario3wasscoredthehighestbyeachofthesociallydifferentiatedgroupsandreceivedthemostfirstchoicepreferences.InBedula’alitherewasslightlymore

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variationinscoringandinthepreferencesexhibitedbythesocially-differentiatedgroupscomparedtoAlola.Overall,scenario2scoredthehighestandscenario3wassecond.Scenario2receivedthegreatestnumberoffirstchoicepreferences,againscenario3wassecond.ThevotingpatternsinGonitaBirkaweremuchmoreuniformcomparedtotheothertwocommunities.Scenario2wasscoredthehighestbyallfoursocially-differentiatedgroups.ThispatternofvotingmorecloselyresembledBedula’alibutnotAlolawhichexhibitedapreferenceforscenario3.Interestingly,scenario3,whichscoredthehighestinAlolaandthesecondhighestinBedula’aliwasscoredthelowestinGonitaBirka.

First-choicepreferencevotingrevealeddistinctionsbasedonageinthecommunitiesofAlolaandBedula’ali.Inthesecommunities,thegroupsofyoungermenandyoungerwomenexhibitedapreferenceforscenario3.Incontrast,thegroupsofoldermenandwomenuniversallyfavouredscenario2(inthecaseofBedula’ali)orexhibitedmoremixedpreferencessplitbetweenscenarios2,3and4.Themostlikelyexplanationforthisdivergenceislinkedtotheperceiveddistributionofbenefitsamongstthesocial-differentiatedcommunity.AllgroupsinAlolafeltthattheyoungergenerationweremorelikelytobenefitfromscenario3astheyhavemoreskills(linkedwithhighereducationalattainment)andlabourandarebetterplacedtotakeadvantageofthesortsofopportunitiesthatwouldarisethroughthedevelopmentofacommercialoperation.Similarly,inBedula’ali,scenario3wasthesecondmostselectedintermsoffirstchoicepreference.Themainreasongivenforthischoicewasthattheyoungergenerationthoughtitwouldleadtomorelivelihoodandincome-generatingactivities.Bywayofcontrast,thegroupofoldermenshowedmuchmorescepticismandquestionedwhethertheircommunitywouldbenefitfromthissortofdevelopment.

Comparing the perspectives of communities, government and NGOs Intermsofpreferencesforaspecificmanagementscenario,theintentionofthegovernmentrepresentativesmostcloselymatchedtheoverallpreferencesofthecommunitiesinselectingscenario2.Incontrast,theNGOrepresentativesfavouredscenario4whichwasoneofthetwoleastfavouredscenariosatacommunitylevel.ComparingthecumulativescoresofrepresentativesfromgovernmentandNGOswiththeindividualcommunityhighlightssomeinterestingconvergenceanddivergence(seeFigures7and8).ThegovernmentscumulativescoresmostcloselyalignedwiththepreferencesofthecommunityfromGonitaBirka,asbothscoredscenario2mosthighlyfollowedbyscenarios4,1and3respectively.

Forfirst-choicevotingpreferencestherewasagainsimilarvotingpatternsalthoughthedegreeofsimilaritywasslightlyless(seefigures5and2).Fortheothertwocommunities,thegovernmentrepresentativevotingwasmorecloselyalignedtoBedula’alicomparedtoAlola.TheexplanationforthesepatternsmightlieintheextenttowhichtheparticipantsfromAlolasawurbanisationasthekeytodevelopmentwithintheircommunityandfavouredascenario(3)thatoffersthegreatestpotentialforthis.TherepresentativesfrombothgovernmentandNGOswerepredominantlydrawnfromareasthatspecialiseinruraldevelopment,waterandagriculturalissues.Peoplewithknowledgeinissuesthataremorecloselyalignedtoruraldevelopmentissuesappear


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morelikelytosharethepreferencesofmoreruralandremotecommunitiesratherthanthosethatareproximatetourbanareas.

TherepresentativesfromNGOsvotedstronglyinfavourofscenario4.Interestingly,thisscenariowasnotthefavouredscenarioinanyofthecommunityworkshops.OnlyinGonitaBirkadidscenario4scoreinthetoptwoforthecumulativescoreandacrossallofthecommunityworkshopsonly3peoplevotedforitasafirst-choicepreference.ThedisparitybetweenthepreferencesatacommunitylevelandthosefromNGOsisstriking.Thedifferencemayberelatedtotheverystrongbottom-up,community-focusedethosthatarecentraltotheNGOs.However,itisclearfromthevotingatacommunitylevelthattheirpreferencesdidnotmirrortheNGOs.

Figure7:Scenarioscoring(datafrom60communityparticipants,12governmentand7NGOrepresentatives),combinedscoreshowsmeanofallcommunityparticipants.Weightedtoenablecomparison.

Figure8:First-choicepreferences(datafrom60communityparticipants,12governmentand7NGOrepresentatives),combinedpreferenceshowsmeanofallcommunityparticipants.Weightedtoenablecomparison.

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7. Broader implications

Preferencesforscenariosdifferbylocation,livelihood,ageandbetweencommunitygroups.Therearelargedifferencesbetweenandwithincommunities.Theseresultsshowthatforanymanagementinterventionstherearelikelytobegroupsofpeoplewithincommunitiesandevenwholecommunitiesthatfeelliketheyaremissingoutornotgettingasmuchbenefitcomparedtoothers.Recognisingthattherewillbewinnersandloserswheneveraninterventionisimplementedemphasisestheneedforgoodconsultationandeffectivedesigntoensurethattheperceiveddifferencesinwhobenefitsareminimised.

Furthermore,thedifferencesinpreferencesbetweenandwithincommunities(forexamplebetweentheolderandyoungergeneration)highlighttheveryrealriskthatthedesignandconsultationsoninterventionscanbesignificantlyskeweddependingonhowandwhereonegoesforinput.Preferencesalsodifferaccordingtothetypeofstakeholder.Therewascleardivergencebetweengovernment,NGOsandcommunitiesdemonstratingthatmanagementinterventionswouldlookverydifferentifonlyonegroupwasconsultedinthedesignanddevelopmentofaresponsestrategy.

Communitiesareadeptatunderstandingthecomplexnatureofproblems,caninterpretsolutionsandreadilyidentifyifitisintheirinteresttoparticipateinactionsthatwillpotentiallyimpactonthemandtheircommunity.Previousinterventionsthathavefailedmakeitmuchmoredifficultforactorsthatarerootedinplacesto‘startover’,witheveryfailuremakingitmoredifficultforthenextintervention.Toovercomethisissue,veryclearandunambiguousconsultationisneeded,withclearpathwaystodeliveryidentifiedpriortothesubstantiveengagement.Fromtheoutset,transparentdiscussionsaboutthecostsandbenefits,aboutwhowillwinandwhowillloseoutarerequiredtoavoidgettingintoacycleofmistrustandevernarrowingreciprocity.

Moregenerally,stakeholdersrecognisethatP.julifloraisalong-termissueaffectingmanylocationsinEthiopia(Somali,Afar,Oromiya,Tigray,SWEthiopia)andothercountriesintheHornofAfrica.Thedeeplyentrenchednatureoftheproblemmeansthatlong-termcommitmentisrequiredandthisisoftennotpracticablethroughshort-termprojectfunding(whetherforimplementationorresearch).National,andideallyregional,commitmentisrequiredonasustainedbasis.

ResearchontheissueofP.julifloraisrequiredtoinformeffectiveandequitablemanagement,implementationandaction,yettoooftentheengagementbetweenresearchandimplementationispoor.MuchresearchonP.juliflorahastakenplaceinthepastorisongoingandyetthishasnotbeenconvertedtoaction.EvenifthereareimplementablerecommendationstocontrolandmanageP.juliflorafewplanshavebeenproposedforlarge-scaleimplementationprojects.Insightsonthefeasibilityofmanagementoptionsarethusonlyapplicabletosmallpilotsites.


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Interventionsandresearchareoftengeneratedina‘foreign’contextandcanbeunsuitableasaresult.Moreworkisneededtounderstandhowactorsandstakeholderscancometogetheraroundacommongoalorpreferredmanagementoptiontoachievemoretangibleresultsonthegroundespeciallyinsituationswheretherearedifferentinstitutionalset-upsinoperationthatdonotworkcohesivelytogether(forexamplecustomaryandnon-customarygovernancearrangements).

We would like to thank the people of Southern Afar who spoke with us and shared their experiences, without their time, trust and support we would not have been able to undertake the research and produce this report. We would also like to thank the wonderful research assistants we worked with, Seyoum, Amin, Fatuma, Yusuf, Ebirahim and Anter as well as the additional support we received from Teresa Perez (University of Cape Town) and Alemayehu Zewdie (Oxfam).

This work was carried out under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of DfID and IDRC or its Board of Governors.

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