ADDRESSING MEGA-TRENDS FOR FOOD SECURITY AND …...• Agricultural value chains provide a framework...

Shenggen Fan, May 2018

Shenggen Fan | Director GeneralInternational Food Policy Research Institute

Cork, Ireland | May 11, 2018

ADDRESSING MEGA-TRENDS FOR FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION


Outline

IFPRI works to address trends and tackle global hunger and malnutrition

Partnerships are critical to ensure food security and nutrition

Mega-trends impact food security and nutrition


Mega-trends impacting food security and nutrition

Rapid population growth,

urbanization, and youth

Technological

innovations

Conflict, hunger, and

famine

Closing in on

planetary boundaries

Changing global

landscape

Food safety concerns &

anti-microbial resistance


1. De-globalization

• Growing uncertainty for trade and

FDI, heightened by political

developments (e.g. in US, UK) and

failed WTO Ministerial talks

• Migration and refugee crises persist

• Global commitment to Paris

Agreement and climate science in

question

?


2. Conflict is a main driver of hunger…

Across 18 countries, conflict and insecurity were main drivers of food insecurity for 74 million

people in 2017Source: FSIN 2018

GHI: Mixed progress across regions

Source: IFPRI 2017

Global Report on Food Crises: Main drivers

of hunger in 2017


2. …and risk of famine and hunger have

increased

Source: FAO 2017

Famine risk: largest food crises in 70 years

Source: FAO 2017

Global hunger is on the rise

(Prevalence of undernourishment)


3. Rapid urbanization & rising middle class…

Projected urban share of global population

Urban

67%

20502014

Urban

54%

Source: Ruel et al. 2017

• Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia

and Africa

• China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents

Source: OECD 2010

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2020 2030

North America Europe

Central and South America Asia Pacific

Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)

Source: UN 2014


• Increase access to credit and resources

o Program for development of rural employment

(PADER) in Cameroon facilitates in-kind and

financial loans for youth farmer groups

o Warehouse receipt system for Tanzanian rural

youth provides access to credit and advance

payment for produce

• Make agriculture attractive to youth through

technology and innovation

o FarmDrive in Kenya improves farm performance

data and record keeping via mobile phones to

present credit-worthiness

• Engage youth with climate-smart agriculture

training

40% of world’s youth are either unemployed

or working but poor

Source: World Bank 2016

Average youth unemployment rate

10

11

12

13

14

15

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

World

SSA

Source: ILO 2016

Source: Devex 2017, IFAD 2012

3. …high youth unemployment…


3. ..and changing diets toward more animal products

Changes in composition of diets (per capita)

Source: Wiebe and Rosegrant 2015

Note: WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;

MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa


Prevalence of anemia among women aged 15-49, 2016

Source: GNR 2016, NCD-RisC 2016

Adult overweight and obesity, 2010 and 2014 (%)

Source: UNICEF/WHO/WB 2017

155 million children

stunted worldwide(2016)

Multiple burdens of malnutrition persist

By 2025, 18% of men and 21% of women

will be obese globally, if post-2000

trends continue

Source: GNR 2017


Obesity increases the risk of NCDs

Source: GNR 2017

• Metabolic risk factors increase risk of NCDs

o Overweight and obesity

o Raised blood pressure

o High blood glucose levels

o High levels of fat in the blood

• Unhealthy diets contribute to obesity and

NCDs, including diabetes, heart disease,

stroke, and cancer

• 4.1 million annual deaths attributed to excess

sodium intake

Metabolic risk factors for diet-related NCDs globally (%)


4. Agriculture is pushing planetary boundaries

Source: Steffen et al. 2016


Climate mitigation requires dramatic transformation

Source: Bajželj et al. 2014

Without drastic changes to agri-food

systems, we will not be able to meet the

2°C target

• Under BAU, agriculture will emit 20.2

GtCO2e/yr, almost reaching 2°C target

emission allowance for all sectors in 2050

(~21 GtCO2eyr-1)

• Food system transformation will be key for

sufficient mitigation, e.g. yield gap closure,

food waste reduction, and healthy diets

(YG3 scenario)CT1 = Current yield trend

CT2 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction

CT3 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction &

Healthy diets

YG1 = Yield gap closure (sustainable intensification)

YG2 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction

YG3 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction &

Healthy diets

BAU

2° target

by 2050

2009 emissions

from agriculture


• Substantial economic costs of

lacking food safety

o USA: Foodborne illnesses cost $14 - 152

billion annually

o China: $970 million in losses in 2014 from

tainted meat

• Nutrition, food safety, and health

must be priorities

Source: Adapted from WHO 2015

• To ensure accessibility

o Productive, cross-sectoral social protection in the short run

o Equity growth in the long run

5. Food safety concerns for nutrition, health and livelihoods…


Projected extra healthcare expenditures

Sources: Word Bank 2017

• AMR will impact human health –

increased morbidity and mortality

• Livestock production will also be

impacted

• Lead to lower productivity, lower

supply of livestock production,

increased prices for major protein

sources

• Decrease world trade

• Increase extreme poverty

5. …and anti-microbial resistance becoming prominent


6. Emerging technological in and out of

agriculture

Source: Thottathil, Jayasekaran, and Othman 2016

Automation and mechanization

• Increasing use of machines and

electronics in agriculture

• Implications on youth unemployment –

need to move jobs to post-harvest service

sector

Hydroponic, vertical or indoor farming

• Estimated US$750 million in North American

private investment in vertical farming

(through Q3 2017)

• Economically viable and sustainable

Biotechnology

• Gene sequencing

‒ Dramatic reduction in cost to ~US $1,245/genome

‒ Sequenced crop genomes could improve

agriculture in challenging climates

Source: Indoor Ag-Con 2016


IFPRI works to address trends and tackle

global hunger and malnutrition

Shenggen Fan, October 2017

IFPRI’s strategy refresh to respond to emerging issues

New priorities in the refreshed strategy include:

• Food industry for people and planet

• Climate-resilient food systems

• Urban food and nutrition security

• Overweight / obesity

• NCDs

• Governance and power of the food system


• China—long-term impacts of famine

o Famine in 1950s – 1960s led to an estimated

20-30 million deaths in China

o Origins of famine traced to several factors

o Excessive food consumption in collective dining

halls

o Lower production incentives

o Preferential supply of food to cities

o Long-term health impacts: Constrained diets

in early life and exposure to abundant food

supply in later life linked to overweight and

obesity, especially for women

IFPRI research highlights

Understanding and preventing famine

Source: Lui, Mu, and Zhang 2006

• Ethiopia—famine as a development issue

o 1970-71: Despite adequate food supply,

inability to distribute food (due to poor

infrastructure, conflict) can cause famine-like

conditions

o 1983-84: Famines can undermine resource

base of the poor, reducing their ability to cope

even in the absence of disaster

o In last 20 years, investment in ag. research,

extension, rural infrastructure, productive

social safety nets increased food system

resilience

Source: Webb and von Braun 1994


• Civil conflict often increases food

prices and threatens food security

and nutrition

• Pathways to durable solutions

o Support risk-informed, shock-

responsive protection & early warning,

early action (EWEA) systems

o Build resilience in households

o Invest in strengthening livelihoods and

food security

o Foster inclusive and participatory

processes in access to & use of natural

resources


Addressing civil conflicts and food crises

Food price hikes and civil conflict in Nigeria, 2000-2013

Source: Breisinger, Ecker, and Tan 2015, FAO 2017


• Partnerships and Opportunities to Strengthen and

Harmonize Actions for Nutrition in India (POSHAN)

o Spurring action on nutrition and bringing together stakeholders

o Reviewing nutrition policies and programs in India to compile

lessons learned

• Alive & Thrive – Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Vietnam

o Combatting child undernutrition through promotion of infant and

young child feeding practices

o Ethiopia:

‒ Increased early breastfeeding initiation by 13.7 percentage

points & exclusive breastfeeding by 9.4 percentage points

‒ Further improvement in children’s diets and complementary

feeding needed


Tackling undernutrition using an integrated approach

Source: Kim et al. 2016



Biofortification: advancing nutrition-driven ag. technologies

• Increasing nutrient density through plant breeding,

agronomic practices

• HarvestPlus:

o Working with more than 440 partners

o Nigeria: 1.3 million households benefiting, 800,000+ households

reached with Vit. A cassava

o Bangladesh: 360,000+ households benefiting from zinc rice

o India: 280,000+ households benefiting from biofortified crops

Biofortification Priority Index

Iron beans Vit. A

maize

Iron pearl

milletZinc

wheat

Vit. A

cassava

Vit. A orange

sweet potatoZinc rice


• Women’s Empowerment in Agricultural Index (WEAI)

o Innovative tool composed of 2 sub-indices on empowerment and gender parity

o Developed WEAI for use in agricultural development projects (pro-WEAI) under

the Gender, Agriculture, and Assets Project (GAAP2)

• Improve access to inputs and credit

o Ghana: Women’s ability to make credit decisions significantly improved dietary

diversity for women and girls (Malapit and Quisumbing 2015)

• Provide agricultural training and information

o Bangladesh: Livelihood assistance and training increased


Closing the gender gap in agriculture

Picture source: Farming First and FAO 2014

Shenggen Fan, May 2018 Sources: Allen, de Braw, and Gelli 2016, Fan and Graziano da Silva 2017

• Agricultural value chains provide a framework to analyze different

dimensions of food systems

• Research on value chains can identify solutions to improve nutrition and

environment across stages from food production to consumption

Weak links in Nigeria’s rice value chain

• 60% of rice purchased in urban areas is imported due to consumer

concerns about locally produced rice

‒ Poor vertical integration leading to inconsistencies in quality, labelling, and taste

• Highly fragmented domestic value chain

• Lack of traceability along value chain prevents a link between

production and consumer preferences


Strengthening agri-food value chains



Modelling the global agri-food system

IMPACTAgricultural

supply/demand

IMPACT Global Hydrological

Model

IMPACT Water Simulation

Model

DSSAT Crop Models

Climate Forcing

Effective PPotential ET

IRW

Irrigation Water Demand & Supply

Crop Management

WATER STRESS

Pop & GDP growth

Area & yield growth

Food Projections• Crop area /

livestock numbers, yields, and production

• Agricultural commodity demand

• Agricultural commodity trade and prices

• Under-nourishment

• Risk of hunger

Water Projections• Water demand and supply for domestic,

industrial, livestock and irrigation users• Water supply reliability

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2017

IMPACT model examines alternative futures for global food

supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security

Shenggen Fan, May 2018 Sources: Hoddinott, Ahmed, et al. 2015, Berhane et al. 2014

• Bridging the gap between short-term relief and long-term development

goals

• Integration of multi-disciplinary studies to reach high equilibrium AND

benefit vulnerable communities

Social protection can secure basic livelihoods, protect from risk and vulnerability, and stimulate growth

• Promoting better-targeted, productive, cross-sectoral safety nets e.g.

• Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program:

Access to safety nets and ag. support improves food security

• Bangladesh’s Vulnerable Group Development Program:

Food security, nutrition interventions + income-generating activities


Building resilience


IFPRI engages at the country levelExample Country Strategy Support Programs

Ethiopia Bangladesh

Commodity Exchange

Food for Education

Strategy Support Program Agricultural Policy Support Unit

Productive Safety

Nets Programme

Women’s Empowerment

in Agric. Index Early adopter

Rebuilding after emergencies

Agricultural

Transformation Agency

Strategy Support Program

INSTITUTIONAL BUILDING

Strategy Support Program

Strengthening agricultural

markets and institutions

Supporting Evidence-based

Agriculture Policy

Malawi

Capacity strengthening


We must work together to ensure food

security and nutrition—partnerships are key

ADDRESSING MEGA-TRENDS FOR FOOD SECURITY AND …...• Agricultural value chains provide a framework...

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