ADAPTIVE FOREST M E THROUGH SCIENTIST-M P...Adaptation Strategies and Approaches 1. Sustain...

DESIGNING ADAPTIVE FORESTMANAGEMENT EXPERIMENTSTHROUGH SCIENTIST-MANAGER PARTNERSHIPS

LindaNagel,ProfessorandDepartmentHeadForestandRangelandStewardship

Photo:JacobMuller

April4,2017TexasA&M– ESSMSeminarSeries

ManagementinTransition:AdaptingtoaChangingWorld

KeyCollaborators:ChrisSwanston(NIACS),MariaJanowiak (NIACS),JimGuldin (SRS),BrianPalik (NRS),MikeBattaglia (RMRS)

NCA2014

OurchangingclimateContiguousUS:1991-2012departurefrom1901-1960average

NCA2014

ObservedUSprecipitationchange:1991-2011departurefrom1901-1960average

Ourchangingclimate

NCA2014

Observedchangeinheavyprecipitation

Ourchangingclimate

NCA2014

Frost-freeseason,1991-2012comparedto1901-1906

Ourchangingclimate

SL

L

L

L

S

S

SL

SL

S

SS

SL

L

S

L

L S

SL

SLS

S

S

The Drought Monitor focuses on broad-scale conditions. Local conditions may vary. See accompanying text summary for forecast statements.

S http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

U.S. Drought Monitor March 28, 2017Valid 8 a.m. EDT

(Released Thursday, Mar. 30, 2017)

Intensity:D0 Abnormally DryD1 Moderate DroughtD2 Severe DroughtD3 Extreme DroughtD4 Exceptional Drought

Author:Eric Luebehusen

Drought Impact Types:

S = Short-Term, typically less than 6 months (e.g. agriculture, grasslands)

L = Long-Term, typically greater than 6 months (e.g. hydrology, ecology)

Delineates dominant impacts

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Pagami CreekFire– 201193,000ac

DuluthFlood– 2012JayCookeStatePark

Snowstorm,BlackHillsSDOctober7,2013

Texasdrought,2009BlackHillsNationalForest,SD

HurricaneSandy,NJ2012

HelenaNationalForest,MT

HelenaNationalForest,MT

Manion 1981

Decline-DeathSpiral

• Predisposing – long-term;background,abioticcomponentsofenvironment(genetics,age,soiltype)

• Inciting – short-term;bioticstressingagents(insects,disease),extremeweatherevents(drought,earlierspring)

• Contributing – coupdegrâce;opportunisticfungiandinsects

Whatactionscanbetakentoenhancetheabilityofasystemto

copewithchangeand

meetgoalsandobjectives?

Desired Future Condition

TIME

Climate-DrivenChanges


TIME

Climate ChangeTrajectory

?

Climate-DrivenChanges

DesiredConditions&AdaptiveManagement• Desiredfutureconditions(USDAForestService– 1982PlanningRule)• Desiredconditions(USDAForestService– 2012PlanningRule&2015PlanningDirectives)• Focuson“restoring”historicalconditions;doesnotaccountforuncertainty

• Desiredfuturedynamics(function)(Kohm andFranklin1997)

• Achievablefutureconditions(Golladay etal2016,ForestEcology&Management)

• Focusonarangeofpossibleconditionsthatcoulddevelopinthefuture

• Undesirableconditions(Matonis etal2016,JournalofForestry)

• Open-endedgoals,promoteecosystemvariabilityandriskmanagement

JournalofForestry2016

Time(years)

Ecosystemcharacteristics

B

A

Intensiveeven-agedsinglespeciesplantation

FollowingPuettmann etal2009

StandstructureTimbervolumeTreebiomassHabitat

ComplexityMaintainsAdaptiveCapacity

Single-treeselection

Time(years)

Ecosystemcharacteristics

B

A

Intensiveeven-agedsinglespeciesplantation

FollowingPuettmann etal2009

StandstructureTimbervolumeTreebiomassHabitat

ComplexityMaintainsAdaptiveCapacity

Single-treeselection C Managedascomplex,

adaptivesystems

ManagingforComplexity

AdaptationStrategiesandApproaches

1. Sustainfundamentalecologicalfunctions2. Reducetheimpactofbiologicalstressors3. Reducetheriskandlong-termimpactsofsevere

disturbances4. Maintainorcreaterefugia5. Maintainandenhancespeciesandstructuraldiversity6. Increaseecosystemredundancyacrossthelandscape7. Promotelandscapeconnectivity8. Maintainandenhancegeneticdiversity9. Facilitatecommunityadjustmentsthroughspeciestransitions10. Realignecosystemsafterdisturbance

Swanston et al 2016: https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760; NRS-GTR 87-2

Maintain the most options moving forward

AdaptationOptions

Manage for Persistence:Ecosystems are still recognizable as being the same system (character)

Resistance

Transition(Response)

Resilience

Manage for Change:Ecosystems have fundamentally changed to something different

Option#1– Resistance(persistence)Improvethedefensesoftheecosystemagainsteffectsofchange• Short-term• High-value

Photo:USFS

Millaretal.2007,2008;DeRose andLong2014


TIME


?

Option#1– Resistance(persistence)


TIME


?

Increasing resources needed to maintain desired conditions

Higher risk

Option#1– Resistance(persistence)

Accommodatesomedegreeofchangeordisruption,butbeabletoreturntoasimilarconditionafterdisturbance• Thinningstandstoimproveoverallhealth&vigor• Managementofvegetationfollowingdisturbance

Holling 1973,Millaretal.2007Photo:USFS

Option#2– Resilience(persistence)

TIME


?

Increasing resources needed to maintain desired conditions

Higher risk

Option#2– Resilience(persistence)

Intentionallyencouragechange,helpecosystemsrespondinatargetedfashion• Fosterwell-adaptednativespecies• Managedrelocation/assistedmigration• Increasedconnectivityformigration• Maintainrefugia

Millaretal.2007

Option#3– Transition(change)

TIME


?

Option#3– Transition(change)

Reduceclimatechangeimpacts

Promotechange

Facilitateadaptiveresponses

Maintaincurrent

conditions

maintainrelativelyunchangedconditionsovertime

allowsomechangeincurrentconditions,butencourageaneventualreturntoreferenceconditions

activelyfacilitatechangetoencourageadaptiveresponsesto

changingandnewconditions

SpectrumofAdaptationOptions


Resilience

Resistance

Overallprojectgoals:Forestmanagersneedrobust,operationalexamplesofhowtointegrateclimatechangeadaptationintosilviculturalplanningandon-the-groundactions thatcan…• Fosterresiliencetotheimpactsofclimatechangeand/or• Enableadaptationtouncertainfutures

ADAPTIVE SILVICULTURE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE (ASCC)

SRS:JimGuldin (USFSPI)

NRS/NIACS:ChrisSwanstonMariaJanowiak

NRS:BrianPalik

RMRS:LindaJoyce

PSW:ConnieMillar

PNW:DavePeterson

OSU:LisaGanio

CSU:LindaNagel (LeadPI)

SITE2:SanJuanNFLead:MikeBattaglia

SITE1:CutfootExp ForestonChippewaNFLead:BrianPalik

SITE5:DartmouthSecondCollegeGrantLeads:TonyD’Amato&

ChrisWoodall

SITE4:FlatheadNF(w/collaborationfromCoramExp Forest)

Lead:ElaineSutherland

SITE3:JonesEcologicalCtrLeads:SteveJack,SethBigelow

Collaborators

StudySites

PIs

ADAPTIVE SILVICULTURE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE (ASCC)

1.DEFINEareaofinterest,managementobjectives,andtime

frames.

2.ASSESSclimatechangeimpactsandvulnerabilitiesforthe

areaofinterest.

3.EVALUATEmanagement

objectivesgivenprojectedimpactsand

vulnerabilities.

4.IDENTIFYandimplementadaptation

approachesandtactics.

5.MONITORandevaluateeffectiveness

ofimplementedactions.

AdaptationStrategiesandApproaches

Vulnerabilityassessments,

scientificliterature,andotherresources

Aredesiredfuture

conditionsreasonablegivenlikelyclimate

trajectoriesandimpacts?

Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014

Identifying Adaptation TacticsForest Adaptation Resources

ASCCStudyDesign

CommonDesignAcrossAllForests

TreatmentThemes:AdaptationOptions

Resistance

Resilience

Transition

NoAction

MinimumStudyDesignElements

Replication

Stand/EUSize

MonitoringGuidelines

EvaluationWindow

SiteSpecificsUniquetoIndividual

Forests

ForestTypeorEcosystem

StudySites/Layout

ManagementObjectives

AdaptationApproaches&

Tactics

FinalMonitoringPlan

ASCCStudyDesign

CoreManagementQuestionsconceptual

1) Willadaptationapproachesandtreatmentsworkinareal-worldcontexttomeetlocalmanagementgoalsandobjectives?

2) Arethetreatmentssilviculturally feasible(andfiscally,socially,etc.)andwilltheyworkwithintherequirementsofagivenforestplan?

3) Howdoesourideaofdesiredfutureconditions(DFCs)changewitheachtreatmenttype,andisthisimportantsilviculturally?

4) Whatdoesitmeantodeliberatelycreateafuture-adaptedecosystem,andwhywouldamanagerchoosetodothis?

5) Whattradeoffsexistbetweenachievementofadaptationobjectivesandothercommonobjectivesforagivenregionandecosystemtype?

Nageletal.2017

CoreScientificQuestionshypothesis-driven1) Isthereasignificanteffectofthetreatmentsonforestconditions

andprocessesovertime,anddotheydiffersignificantlyfromeachotherateachsite?

2) Howdohypothesizedtreatmentresponses(DFCs)comparewithactualresponsesobservedinthefuture?

3) Dothesetreatmentsachievewhattheyweredesignedfor,i.e.dotheymeetthestatedmanagementgoalsat5or10years,andwillcriteriaemergetoenablemanagerstoidentifywhichtreatmentsperformbest?

4) Aretheretrendsinwhichtreatment(resistance,resilience,transition,ornoaction)performsbetterthanothertreatmentsatmeetingDFCsandadaptationgoalsacrossallASCCsites?

Nageletal.2017

Keymonitoringvariables– ASCCSpeciesComposition ForestHealth Productivity

Overstory

SpeciesrichnessSpeciesdiversityRelativedensityRelativedominance

MortalityCrowndensityCrowndiebackLivecrownratioTreedamage(DSI)

BiomassincrementBasalareaincrement

Midstory

SpeciesrichnessSpeciesdiversityRelativedensityRelativebiomass

Relativedensityorbiomassofinvasivespecies

Biomassincrement

Grou

nd

Layer

SpeciesrichnessSpeciesdiversityPercentcoverbyspecies

Percentcoverofinvasivespecies

Biomassincrement

ASCCstudysites• ChippewaNationalForestCutfoot EF• Workshop:June25-27,2013

www.dnr.state.mn.us/ecs

http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glchallengereport.html

SpeciesRangeShifts

Iversonetal2008

Climate-inducedchangesinbiophysicalconditionswilllikelyleadtoshiftsinspeciesrangedistributionsTreeAtlas

ChippewaNationalForest

DayOneWorkshop 1.Climatescienceoverview2.Climatechangetrends,impacts,

andvulnerabilitiesfortheregion3.Considerationsforsilvicultural

decisions(exercise)4.Climatechangeadaptationand

silviculturaldecisionmaking5.Developingadaptation

approachesandtactics


DayTwo:DevelopingtheExperimentalTreatments• Foreach experimentaltreatment(Resistance,Resilience,Transition):

Silviculturalpractices(tactics)

Foreachsilviculturalpractice(tactic):• Timeframes• Benefits• DrawbacksandBarriers• Practicality• Recommendtactic?

Keepinmindkeyvariables/outcomes:• Speciescomposition• Foresthealth• Forestproductivity• Responsetodisturbance

Whatdoyouwantthestandtobeandlooklike?

Managementobjectives

DFC


Promotechange


Maintaincurrent

conditions

maintainrelativelyunchangedconditionsovertime

allowsomechangeincurrentconditions,butencourageaneventualreturntoreferenceconditions

activelyfacilitatechangetoencourageadaptiveresponsesto

changingandnewconditions

SpectrumofAdaptationOptions


Resilience

Resistance

CurrentConditions,Cutfoot EF

• FDn33:NorthernDry-Mesic MixedWoodland

• Averagebasalarea180ft2/ac• Fire-origin1918;fireexclusionsince• Largelysinglecohort• Overstory:Stronglyredpine,mixedwithwhiteandjackpine

• Minorspecies:paperbirch,northernredoak,redmaple,whitespruce,andaspen

• DenseunderstoryofCorylus (hazel)• Currentcondition:vulnerabletoclimatechangeandforesthealthissues


SpeciespredictionsChippewaNF–TreeAtlas(changeinIV)

Species Current HadHiDifQuakingaspen 21.80 -17.41Balsamfir 7.24 -7.24Blackspruce 5.34 -5.27Paperbirch 6.65 -5.22Jackpine 3.36 -1.46Bigtooth aspen 1.44 -0.93Whitespruce 1.19 -0.73Redpine* 2.35 -0.70Northernredoak 2.44 -0.26

Species Current HadHiDifBuroak 2.95 2.67Greenash 2.06 2.31Redmaple 2.57 1.91Easternwhitepine 1.03 0.22Whiteoak 0.00 2.30Blackcherry* 0.30 1.60Bitternut hickory* 0.00 0.75

ReducedHabitatSuitability

IncreasedHabitatSuitability

*Potentialforincreasingissueswithnativepinebeetlesandrootdiseasesaffectingredpine

*Choicestemperedby“SuitabilityofTreeSpeciesbyNativePlantCommunity(NPC)”,MNDNR



RESISTANCE maintainrelativelyunchangedconditions

DFC/Goal•Homogeneous,RPdominated(90%BA)• Singlecohort• ReducedstockingclosertohistoricTactics• Freethinto100-120ft2/ac• RemoveRPandJPtomaintaindiversity• Reservelarge-diametertrees

ReducedStocking=ReducedMoistureStress

Vose etal.2016

Evidencethattheseforestscanbemanagedtomitigatedroughtstressand

growthreduction

Resistance:BAIduringdrought=BAIbeforedrought

Resilience:BAIafterdrought=BAIbeforedrought

RedPineGrowingStockStudyGrowth,Drought,andStockingLevel

60 ft2/ac

140 ft2/ac

ResistanceTreatment:lifeboatexistingredpineintothefuture(climate)withdensitymanagement

Bottero etal.2017


RESILIENCEallowsomechange,eventualreturntoreference

DFC/Goal• RPdominated(50-75%BA)• Increaseheterogeneityandcomplexity• Increasefuture-adaptednative species

Tactics•Variabledensitythinning(skips&gaps)• 20%unthinned in½acskips• 20%in½acgaps,retainlargediameter• Dispersethinmatrixto100-120ft2/ac

• Plantfuture-adaptednative speciesingaps

Species Current HadHiDifBuroak 2.95 2.67Redmaple 2.57 1.91Easternwhitepine 1.03 0.22

Easternwhitepineistolerantofarangeofcanopyconditionsandshrubcompetition,is

native,versatile,andfutureadapted

ResilienceTreatment:change,butwithinthenaturalrangeofvariability,whichincludesincreasingeasternwhitepine


TRANSITIONfacilitatechange,encourageadaptiveresponseDFC/Goal• Reducepineto20-50%,multi-cohort• Increasefuture-adaptedspecies•Highspeciesdiversityandcomplexity

Tactics• Irregularshelterwood withexpandinggaps• 20%in½acgaps,retainlargediameter• Thinmatrixto60-80ft2/ac

• Plantfuture-adaptedspeciesingapsandmatrix(native andnovel species)

Species Current HadHiDifBuroak 2.95 2.67Redmaple 2.57 1.91Easternwhitepine 1.03 0.22Whiteoak 0.00 2.30Blackcherry 0.30 1.60Bitternut hickory 0.00 0.75

Increasedhabitatsuitability(nativespecies)

Newhabitatsuitability(novelspecies)

Andthisspecies…

Pinusponderosa - Largestatured,two-needledpine- Droughttolerant- Fire-adapted- Plantedasalandscape/windbreakspeciesinMinnesota

Seedsourcesfromcomparableelevationineasternpartofrange

Nebraska

Minnesota

SouthDakota

Resistance


Prom

oteCh

ange


Maintaincurren

tcond

ition

sTransition

ManagementGoal:intentionallyaccommodatechangeandenableecosystemstoadaptivelyrespondtochangingconditionsStrategy:reduceredpine,increasefuture-adaptedspecies

Resilience

ManagementGoal:maintainrelativelyunchangedconditionsovertimeStrategy:promoteredpinedominance

ManagementGoal:allowsomechangeincurrentconditions,butencourageareturntoreferenceconditionsStrategy:redpinedominance,increasefuture-adaptedspeciesovertime

SpectrumofAdaptiveForestManagementTreatments

Future-adaptedspecies:easternwhitepinejackpineredoakburoakredmaple

Future-adaptedspecies:easternwhitepineredoakburoakwhiteoakredmaplebitternuthickoryblackcherryponderosapine


tu46

CR

34M

axR

oad

Third River Rd

Eagles Nest Rd

41_Transition

11_Control

33_Control

24_Control

32_Transition

44_Control

51_Control

14_Transition

42_Resilience

21_Transition

54_Resilience

34_Resistance

13_Resistance

43_Resistance

52_Transition

22_Resilience

31_Resilience

23_Resistance

12_Resilience

53_Resistance

3802

3808

2198

2171

38013815

3810

3829

3814

3824

3807

2198B

2052

38133817

3803

3819

3820

3802A

3849

3811

3820A 3825

0 800 1,600 2,400400Feet

Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) Study

ASCC TreatmentsControlResistanceResilienceTransitionGapsSkipsCutfoot Experimental Forest

.

Labels = BlockRep_Trt; dnk 4/6/2015

CutfootExperimentalForest• 5Replicates(500ac)• Control/Resistance

• 7plots• Resilience

• 3ingaps• 3inskips• 5inmatrix

• Transition• 3ingaps• 6inmatrix

• TotalPlots=170

ASCCstudysites:• SanJuanNationalForest• Workshop:March4-6,2014

DesiredFutureCondition,generally

Moreopen,park-like;PPdominant;moreclumpywithopeningsinbetween;moremulti-cohort;moreyoungerageclassesofPP;healthieraspen;morevariabilityinfuelloadingandageclassesatlandscapescale

Photocredit:S.Hartvigsen

Currentcondition à Significantdeparturefromhistoricconditions

SanJuanNationalForest

• Warm-drymixedconifer• Averagebasalarea134ft2/ac;range94-200ft2/ac

• Yearoforigin≈1905-1925• Dominatedby:ponderosapine,whitefir,Douglas-fir

• Scatteredaspen• UnderstoryofGambel oak(concern)• Currentcondition:

• Highdensity,speciescomposition• Highfuelloading• Firengraver,aspendecline,other

DesiredFutureCondition,generally

Moreopen,park-like;PPdominant;moreclumpywithopeningsinbetween;moremulti-cohort;moreyoungerageclassesofPP;healthieraspen;morevariabilityinfuelloadingandageclassesatlandscapescale

Photocredit:S.Hartvigsen

Currentcondition Desiredconditionsilviculture


Resistance


Prom

oteCh

ange


Maintaincurren

tcond

ition

sTransition

ManagementGoal:intentionallyaccommodatechangeandenableecosystemstoadaptivelyrespondtochangingconditionsStrategy:Environmentdominatedbyopenings,retainPPandDFinclumps,AspeninswalesandNslopes,removeallWF

Resilience

ManagementGoal:maintainrelativelyunchangedconditionsovertimeStrategy:maintainproportionalPP,DF,WF,AS

ManagementGoal:allowsomechangeincurrentconditions,butencourageareturntoreferenceconditionsStrategy:variabletreecoverandopenings(1ac),increasedrought-tolerantspecies

Species:ponderosapineéDouglas-firéwhitefirêaspeninclumps

Species:ponderosapineéDouglas-firéwhitefirêaspeninclumpsgrass/shrub/oak/RMJ/SWLPé


FlatheadNF,MT• Westernlarchdominated• Warmer,drier/nochange,changesin

snowpack• Treatmentsfocusonreducingfuel

loading/increasingfiretolerantspp

Dartmouth/SecondCollegeGrant,NH• Northernhardwoods• Warmer,precip increase?,extreme

weatherevents• Treatmentsfocusonspp thatcan

withstanddisturbance;maintainspprichness

JonesCenter,GA• Longleafpinedominated,oaks• Warmer,precip?,extremes• Treatmentsfocusonmaintaining

fuelcontinuity,decreasingdroughtimpacts

TheotherASCCsites…

Summary:theASCCproject• ASCCisanexampleofadaptivemanagement• CurrentconditionsrepresentadeparturefromhistoricconditionsattheMNandCOsites(overstocking,fuelloading,vulnerabilitytopests)

• Rangeofadaptationtreatments(resistance,resilience,transition)resultsinawidespectrumofuniquesilviculturetreatmentsatallsites• Densityreduction(inMNandCO)iscentraltoreducingpotentialimpactsofdrought,butalsosusceptibilitytoI/Dandwildfirerisk• Proactiveplanningandmanagementmaintainsthemostoptionsformeetingdesiredgoalsintothefuture

Formoreinformation:LindaNagel,ProfessorandDepartmentHead

Forest&RangelandStewardship,[email protected]

Four Trees, Egon Schiele 1917

ADAPTIVE FOREST M E THROUGH SCIENTIST-M P...Adaptation Strategies and Approaches 1. Sustain...

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