ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO
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ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO
C-CIARN – ONTARIODECEMBER 5, 2002
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C-CIARN Mission
The National, Regional and Sectoral C-CIARN Coordinating Offices will build a network of climate change researchers and stakeholders, facilitate research, and help to provide voice and visibility to impacts and adaptation issues.
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C-CIARN Structure
•
Fisheries (Office at DFO Nanaimo)
Health (Office at HC
Ottawa)
Forest (Office at CFS Edmonton)
Coastal Zone (Office at BIO Dartmouth)
Landscape Hazards (Office at GSC Ottawa)
Water Resources (Office at McGill U., Montreal)
Quebec (Office at Ouranos, Montreal)
Ontario (Office at Laurentian U, Sudbury)
British Columbia (Office at UBC, Vancouver)
Atlantic (Office at Dalhousie U., Halifax)
Prairies (Office at PARC, U. of Regina)
North (Office at Northern Climate
Exchange, Whitehorse)
YukonNWTNunavut
C-CIARN Board
Steering Committee
National C-CIARN Coordinating Office
Sectors Regions
Advisory Committee
Prov/Terragencies
Universities
Communities
NGOs Private SectorFederal
Depts.
Agriculture (Office at U. of Guelph)
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The Ontario Network
Non Governmental4%
Federal13%
Provincial18%
Munincipal12%
Industry10%
Research Units7%
Academia24%
Other9%
ENGOS3%
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258 communities with population > 1,000
Range in size from 1,005 to 1.56M
13 communities >100,000
7 communities 50,000 – 99,000
37 communities 10,000 – 49,900
201 communities 1,000 – 9,999
Communities in Ontario
Stats Canada, 2001 census
Large urban centres, medium-sized cities, towns and rural communities will vary in both the climate change challenges they will face AND their capacity to address those challenges
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Average Temperature, with the Canadian model [scenario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2060)] (Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada)
Long Term Temperature ChangesLong Term Temperature Changes
0
500
3000 km
2010-2030 with respect to 1975-1995
2040-2060 with respect to 1975-1995
2080-2100 with respect to 1975-1995
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Projected W inter P recip ita tion C hange Betw een 1985 and 2090Com bined E ffects of P rojected G reenhouse G as and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian M odel
Projected Winter Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2010-2030 Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model
Projected W inter P recip ita tion C hange Betw een 1985 and 2090Com bined E ffects of P rojected G reenhouse G as and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian M odel
Some increased winterprecipitation over OntarioMore rain – less snow
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Projected Sum m er P recip ita tion C hange Betw een 1985 and 2090C om bined E ffects of P rojected G reenhouse G as and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian M odel
Projected Summer Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2080-2100 Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model
Projected Sum m er P recip ita tion C hange Betw een 1985 and 2090C om bined E ffects of P ro jected G reenhouse G as and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - C anadian M odel
Changed summerprecipitation- droughts- food productionAlso- changes in extremes
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Lakes Michigan-
Huron
174
175
176
177
X
X
Lake Ontario
72.5
73.5
74.5
75.5
Great Lakes Water Levels Current & Projected Ranges
X Average, 1918-1998
X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)
172
173
174
175
X
Lake Erie
X
182.5
Lake Superior
183
183.5
184
X
X
1 metre dropin lake level
possible
X
X
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Droughts and Low Water Levels
• severe drought 1997-99• low lake levels; beached harbours• groundwater supply concerns• some years comparable to 1930s; worse than 1960s
Cumulative Precipitation Index for Brantford
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Hydrological Drought Year
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n In
de
x (
%)
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Impacts on Agriculture
Changes• warmer
temperatures
•drier or wetter
• increased
frequency of
extreme events
•enhanced
atmospheric CO2
PositiveIncreased productivity from warmer temps and enhanced CO2
Longer growing seasons
Accelerated maturation rates
Possibility of growing new crops
NegativeIncreased insect infestations
Crop damage from extreme heat
Increased moisture stress and drought
Decreased herbicide and pesticide efficacy
Increased soil erosion
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Adaptation PurposeCrop Development Breed new varieties and hybrids to cop
with changes in climate and environment
Crop Selection To take advantage of crops that potentially suited to the new conditions such as a
longer growing season
Farm Production Practices Diversify crop and livestock types and varieties.
Land Use Locate crops and livestock in Ontario to suit the environmental variations and economic risks
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Physiological Elevated CO2 Process
Warmer Temp./ Longer frost-free season
Increased drought (severity and frequency)
Photosynthesis Increased but possible limitations
Increased but possible limitations
Increased
Development Shortened growing season
Earlier bud break. Later winter frost hardiness
Earlier cessation of bud elongation
Susceptibility to stress
Increased drought tolerance
Potential increase in spring and winter freezing
Increased sensitivity to other stresses
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Adaptation Purpose
Shorten rotation lengths where appropriate
Harvest chronically stressed stands of low vigour and slower growth rates that are susceptible to insect and disease
Plant drought -adapted species and genotypes
Regenerate drought-prone habitats with deeply-rooted species; select and breed drought-tolerant genotypes
Plant climate - adapted species
Introduce southern species beyond recent northern range limits when temperature averages and extremes have warmed sufficiently
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Adaptation Process
Understanding Vulnerability
Engage stakeholders
Those affectedKey decision makers
Use experience to assess impacts and damages
Assess current vulnerability
Climate / environmentSocioeconomicPolicy and development
Project future conditions
Develop / implement appropriate policies / practices
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Climate Impacts in the Hudson Bay Lowlands
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