Adapting to Climate Change - … file• Decreasing rainfall .....22 • Increasing temperatures...

Adapting to Climate ChangeA Queensland Local Government Guide

June 2007

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Table of contents

Purpose of this guide ............................................................................................................... 4

SECTION A: ThE CONTExT, prOCESS ANd TOOlS ................................................................. 5

A snapshot of climate change across Queensland ................................................................. 6

Climate change and core business for Local Government ..................................................... 8 •LocalGovernmentrolesandresponsibilities..................................................................... 8 •PlansandPlanning........................................................................................................... 9 •TheCorporatePlan........................................................................................................ 11 •RelevancetotheCorporatePlan’sStructure................................................................... 12 •Climatechangepolicy.................................................................................................... 13 •Corporateimplicationsforlegalliability.......................................................................... 13

Context and tools ................................................................................................................... 14 •Thebiggerpicture.......................................................................................................... 14 •Toolsforclimatechangeadaptation............................................................................... 15

SECTION B: ApplICATION TO ClIMATE ChANGE ElEMENTS ............................................... 17

Assessing risk and developing an action plan ...................................................................... 18 • Ahierarchyofriskassessment........................................................................................ 18 •Buildonexistingwork................................................................................................... 20

Climate change elements ...................................................................................................... 22 •Decreasingrainfall......................................................................................................... 22 •Increasingtemperatures................................................................................................. 26 •Sealevelrise.................................................................................................................. 30 •Storms........................................................................................................................... 34 •Cyclones........................................................................................................................ 38

Where to from here ............................................................................................................... 42 •BuildingCouncillorsupport........................................................................................... 42 •Startingtheprocess....................................................................................................... 43 • Guidingprinciples.......................................................................................................... 44

Workshop resources ............................................................................................................... 45

Resources ................................................................................................................................ 47

Appendix A Queensland climate projections and potential impacts ................................. 49

Appendix B Risk assessment criteria ..................................................................................... 53

Glossary ................................................................................................................................... 54

Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................... 55

Advisory Group Members ...................................................................................................... 55

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purpose of this guide

Queensland’sclimateischanginginwaysthatwillinfluencemanyoftherolesandresponsibilitiesofLocalGovernment.Someofthischangeisduetonaturalvariation,butincreasingly,humanactivitiesthatreleaseheat-trappinggasesintotheatmospherearewarmingtheearthbycontributingtothe“greenhouseeffect”.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(theglobalscientificbodyofexpertiseonclimatechange),theworld’saveragesurfacetemperatureisexpectedtoincreasebybetween1.1and6.4ºCovertheperiod1990-2100(IPCC2007).Thisprojectedrateofchangeiswithoutprecedentinthelast10,000years.Historicalratesofchangeandvariabilityarethereforenolongerareliableguidetofutureclimateconditions.

Why local Government decision-Makers Need To Consider Climate Change

Oneofthegreatestconcernsisanexpectedincreaseinclimatevariabilityandextremeweather,causingfloods,droughtsandstorms.Astheclimatechanges,evensmallshiftsinclimateaveragescouldhavelargeimplicationsforexistinginfrastructure.

ThiswillaffectsmallandlargeCouncils,bothurbanandrural,andwillhavepositiveandnegativeimplicationsforlanduseplanning,variousLocalGovernmentinfrastructure,communityservices,andnaturalassets.

LocalGovernmentsmakelong-livedinvestmentsininfrastructurethatarerequiredtolastformanydecades.Infrastructuredesignhasgenerallybeenbasedonpastclimateconditions.However,giventheclimatechangesexpectedoverthenextcentury,thesehistoricconditionsarenolongeraccurateindicatorsforplanning,maintenanceandupgrades.LocalGovernmentinfrastructureneedstoadapttonewclimateriskstoensureappropriateinfrastructureinvestmentdecisionsaremadetoreducelong-termcosts.

purpose of this Guide

AdaptingtoClimateChangeisaguidetohelpCouncilsthroughoutQueenslandassessthelikelyeffectsofclimatechangeontheirdiverserangeofrolesandresponsibilitiesandplanappropriateresponses.Ifadequatelyplannedfor,someoftheeffects–andcosts–ofclimatechangecanbeminimised.

TheGuide’sfocusisonadaptation,andnotonmitigationorreductionofgreenhousegasemissions.LocalGovernmentisalreadyextensivelyinvolvedinemissionmitigationprograms,particularlytheCitiesforClimateProtection(CCP).Todatehowever,therehasbeenlittlefocusonadaptationbyalllevelsofgovernment.ThisGuideprovidesanopportunityforLocalGovernmenttotakealeadingroleinrespondingtoclimatechange.

Climate-relatedrisksarenotnewtoLocalGovernmentmanagers.ManyoftheexistingrolesandresponsibilitiesofLocalGovernmentsareinfluencedbyclimateandweatherevents,andtheseareaddressedbythearrayofexistingplanningandmanagementsystemsemployedbyCouncils.Generallyspeaking,climatechangeisnotexpectedtocreatenewrisks,butitmaychangethefrequencyandintensityofexistingrisksandhazards.

AkeymessageintheGuideisthatclimatechangeeffectscaninmanycasesbedealtwithaspartofexistingCouncilplanningandoperationalprocesses.Managingclimatechangeeffectsdoesnotnecessarilyrequirenewandadditionalresources.

TheGuidedoesnotprovidestandardsolutionsforspecificsituations.Eachregionandcommunitywillhaveitsownclimate-relatedvulnerabilitiesandpriorities.Itdoes,however,provideaprocessandsomespecifictoolstohelpCouncilsidentifyandrespondtoclimatechangeimpactsincludingadecision-makingframework,casestudiesandpracticalchecklists.Thesearerelevanttoaplan,projectoractivity.

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SECTION A:ThE CONTExT, prOCESS ANd TOOlS Thecontext,processandtoolsforadaptingto climatechangeinLocalGovernment

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A snapshot of climate change across QueenslandQueenslandisgettinghotter,andisgettinglessrain,especiallyincoastalareassouthofCairns.Since1950annualaverageminimumandmaximumtemperatureshaveincreasedby1.38ºCand0.8ºCrespectively,andtherearemoreextremelyhotdaysabove35ºCandfewerextremelycoldnightsbelow5ºC.Coastalrainfallisnowoccurringinshorterandmoreintensebursts,andaveragecycloneintensityhasincreasedslightly(QueenslandDepartmentofNaturalResources&Mines2005).

Queensland’sclimateisexpectedtokeepchangingthroughoutthiscenturybecausetheatmospherealreadyhaselevatedlevelsofgreenhousegases.Someofthischangeisduetonaturalvariation,butincreasingly,humanactivitiesthatreleaseheat-trappinggases(especiallyCO2)intotheatmospherearewarmingtheearthbycontributingtothe“greenhouseeffect”.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(theglobalscientificbodyofexpertiseonclimatechange),theworld’saveragesurfacetemperatureisexpectedtoincreasebybetween1.1and6.4ºCovertheperiod1990-2100(IPCC2007).Thisprojectedrateofchangeiswithoutprecedentinthelast10,000years.

The trend in Queensland’s annual total rainfall 1950-2006 (change in mm per decade) shows that since 1950 rainfall has declined in many areas, and in some coastal areas by a total of 250mm.

The trend in Queensland’s maximum annual temperatures for 1950-2006 (ºC per decade) shows that maximum annual temperatures have risen by up to 0.3ºC per decade, or almost 1.5ºC over 50 years in some areas.

Trend in Annual Total Rainfall

1950-2006 (mm/10yrs)

50.040.030.020.015.010.0

5.00.0

-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-30.0-40.0-50.0

Trend in Maximum Temperature

1950-2006 (oC/10yrs)

0.800.600.500.400.300.200.101.00

-0.10-0.20-0.30-0.40-0.50-0.60-0.80

Source:BureauofMeteorologyhttp://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi©CommonwealthofAustralia2007,AustralianBureauofMeteorology

Estimatesoffutureclimate–usuallycalledclimateprojectionsorscenarios–areveryimportantinassistingplannersandmanagersidentifypossibleimpactsofclimatechangeontheirareasofresponsibility,andtoidentifyusefulresponsestrategies.

ClimatechangeprojectionsforQueenslandaredevelopedbytheQueenslandGovernmentandCSIRO,fromarangeofcomputer-basedmodelsofglobalclimateandfuturegreenhousegasemissionsscenarios.Becausetherearearangeofuncertaintiesaroundthese,therearevaryinglevelsofconfidenceregardingestimatesoffuturetrendsinkeyclimateparameters.

Furtherdetailregardingstate-wideclimateprojectionspreparedfortheQueenslandGovernmentbyCSIRO,isprovidedinAppendixA.

Thenature,rateandextentofclimatechangewilldifferacrosstheState.Combinedwithvariationsinpopulation,developmentandnaturalresources,therewillberegionaldifferencesinvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.

There is more confidence in temperature projections than for rainfall because of the direct relationship between greenhouse gas concentrations and temperatures.

Very high confidence

HighertemperaturesandchangesinextremetemperaturesSea-levelriseDecliningsoilmoisture

high confidence

DecreasingrainfallIncreasingpotentialevaporationIncreasingstorm-surgeheightsalongcoastIncreasingcycloneintensityIncreasingtemperaturesatregionalscale,includingextremes

Medium to high confidence

IncreasedriskofbushfireIncreasedincidenceofextremerainfall

Moderate confidence

AmountofrainfalldeclineandseasonalityofthatchangeChangesinaveragestreamflowIncreaseddrought

low confidence

Abruptorirreversiblechangesinkeyglobalissuessuchasmeltingofpolaricesheetsandchangesinoceancurrents

AdaptedfromQueenslandDepartmentofNaturalResources&Mines(2005)

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Qld

Climate change will vary across the state

• Western Queensland

Warmingisprojectedtobethestrongestinthisregion,particularlyinthesouth-westernpartofQueensland.Itisthoughtthatastrongdeclineinrainfallcouldaffectwaterquality,availability,andsoilmoisture.Theremaybemoreseveredroughtsandheatwaves,butwhenraindoesfallitcouldbemoreintense.Thesewillpotentiallyaffecttheregion’sproductivityandsocialcohesion.

Moreintenserainfallwillperiodicallycutoffprovisionsandservices,andhinderrestorationofdamagedinfrastructure.

Longreach

Numberofveryhotdays(>40ºC)

Present 17

2030 54

2070 155(QDNRM2005)

• Central Queensland

CentralcoastalQueenslandhasexperiencedthestrongestdryingtrendoverthepast50yearsanditisprojectedtocontinue.Itisthoughtthatastrongdeclineinrainfallandincreasedevaporationcouldaffectsoilmoistureandtheavailabilityandqualityofwater.AsignificantproportionoftheState’sagricultural,industrialandminingactivityislocatedincentralQueensland,theseactivitiesarehighlydependentonwaterresources.

Rockhampton


Present 20

2030 45

2070 146

(QDNRM2005)

• Far North Queensland

Thefarnorthcoastislikelytoexperienceanincreaseinrainfallintensityandtheregionmaygetmoresummerrain.Themajortowns,infrastructureandresortsintheseareasarelocatedinlow-lyingcoastalareasthatcouldbecomeincreasinglyvulnerabletohigherfloodorstormsurgelevels.

MorefrequentincidencesofextremeweatherandfloodingcouldmakeisolatedindigenouscommunitiesinthefarnorthandTorresStraitinaccessiblemoreoften.Thissituationcoulddisruptthesupplyofessentialservicesandthe

abilitytoreadilyrestoreinfrastructure.Changesinrainfallandhottertemperaturescouldalsoincreasetheriskofwater,foodandvector-bornediseases.Duetotheremotenessoftheseareas,sometechnologiesmaynotbeavailableforresponse.

Cairns


Present 4

2030 10

2070 93(QDNRM2005)

• Southeast Queensland

Likesomeoftheotherregions,SoutheastQueenslandhasexperiencedamarkeddryingtrendsincethe1950’s,aswellasanincreaseinintenserainfallevents.Thenumberofdaysover35ºCisexpectedtoincreaseinfuture,potentiallyaffectingpeakenergydemand.

Thedesign,locationanddeliveryofservicesandinfrastructuretosupportpopulationandeconomicgrowthwillneedtoconsiderclimateconditionsoverthenext70

to80years.Adaptationresponseswillneedtoconsiderenergyandwatersupplyanddemand,andhousingthatismoresuitedtochangedclimaticconditions.

Brisbane


Present 3

2030 6

2070 35

(QDNRM2005)

ClimatechangewillhavearangeofimpactsonQueenslandcommunitiesandLocalGovernments.

Evenapparentlymodestincreasesinaverageannualtemperaturecanhavesignificantimpacts.

Temperature Increase (ºC) potential Impacts

<1 4–12moredeathsperannumin65-yearagegroupinnortherntropicalcities

60%oftheGreatBarrierReefisregularlybleached

50%decreaseinmontanetropicalrainforestareainnorthernAustralia

1-� Populationatriskofdengueincreasesfrom0.17millionto0.75-1.6million

PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases4–10%

100yearstormsurgeheightaroundCairnsincreases22%;areafloodeddoubles

�-� Temperaturerelatedmortalityamongpeople65+yearsinAustraliancapitalcitiesincreasesby89–123%

97%oftheGreatBarrierReefisbleachedeveryyear

(adaptedfromPreston&Jones2006)

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Climate change and core business for local Governmentlocal Government roles and responsibilities

Climatechangeaffectsrainfall,temperatureandsealevelrise.Itwillinfluenceflooding,soilmoisture,stormandcycloneevents.Theseelementsofourclimateandweatherarefundamentaltoourcommunityandwayoflife.Ournaturalenvironment,lifestyles,healthandeconomicprosperityhavebeenshapedfromthesebasicforces.Changesinclimateandweatherwillcauseustoevaluateourcurrentactivitiesandpriorities,aswellasfutureplans.

Climate-relatedrisksarenotnewtoQueenslandLocalGovernmentplanners,resourcemanagers,andhazardandemergencymanagers.AnumberofCouncilplanningandmanagementsystemshaveevolvedtodealwithaspectsofCouncilbusinessthatmightbeinfluencedbyclimateorweatherrelatedevents.Theeffectsoffloods,droughts,stormsandotherextremeweathereventsarealreadyaddressedbyLocalGovernmentwhenplanningandprovidingservices.

LocalGovernmentisideallyplacedtobeattheforefrontofclimatechangeadaptationinlocalandregionalcommunities.Aschangesinclimaticandweatherpatternswillvaryregionally,thisvariationwillneedresponsesthataretailoredtothelocalorregionalcontext.LocalGovernmentcanrespondeffectivelytothisvariation-eitherindividuallyorthroughacooperativeregionalframework.

Climatechangewillprobablyalterthefrequencyandintensityofexistingweather-relatedrisksandhazards,aswellasproducingsomelong-termtrendsinparticularclimaticconditions,ratherthancausingentirelynewclimate-relatedrisks.Inmanycircumstances,existingCouncilplanningandmanagementframeworkswilllendthemselveswelltorespondingtoclimatechange.

AlloftherolesandresponsibilitiesofCouncils,includingtheassetstheyownandmanage,andtheservicestheyprovidetothelocalcommunitywillpotentiallybeaffectedbyclimatechange.AlloftheCouncilsfunctionsinthediagrambelowareaffectedbyclimatechange.ItisnotthedomainofanysinglesectionofaCounciltobeentirelyresponsibleforrespondingtoclimatechange.

Mayor and Elected Councillors

represent the community, due diligence, good governance, vision and goals, manage for healthy community & landscapes

Planning & Development

Infrastructure location

Land use planning for industry, residential,

commercial, open space

Urban and Rural Expansion

Corporate & Community Services

WH&S

Economic Development

Waste Management

Disaster Planning

Recreation

Tourism

Infrastructure

Water supply

Wastewater

Stormwater

Transport

Buildings

Coastal Infrastructure

Environment

Biodiversity

Catchments

Parks & Reserves

Wetlands, rivers

Coastal Management

Bushfire Management

Pests, weeds

CASE STUDY

Burdekin Shire – a coordinated approach

BurdekinShireCouncilhostsaNaturalResourceManagement(NRM)ClimateChangeProjectOfficeronbehalfofBurdekinDryTropicsNRM–theregionalNRMorganisation.TheroleofthepositionistoassistLocalGovernment,industryandthecommunitywithintheregionidentifyandadjusttotheimpactsofclimatechangeonnaturalresourcessuchaswateravailability.

InformationregardingclimatechangeanditsimpactonnaturalresourcemanagementpracticesandactivitieswithintheBurdekinShireisbeingcompiled.AseriesofstrategicplanningworkshopswillthenbeconductedwithBurdekinindustries,communitygroupsandLocalGovernmenttoimproveknowledgeandbuildcapacitytorespondtoclimatechangeimpactsonnaturalresources.

TherehasbeensignificantsuccesswithinthepastsixmonthsinengagingresearchbodiessuchastheAustralianInstituteofMarineScience,BureauofMeteorologyandCSIROtowardscontributingvitaltechnicalinformationandclimatedatafortheBurdekinShire.

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plans and planning

ClearlythemultipleplansCouncildevelops–atarangeofscalesandacrossallLocalGovernmentfunctions-presentsamajoropportunityforclimatechangeadaptation.Strategicandoperationalplanningisacrucialcapabilityasittypicallyrequiresresearchandtechnicalassessments,settingclearfutureobjectives,riskassessment,practicalactionsandcommunityengagement.

Itwillbeimportanttodistinguishtheroleofvariousplans,andwhereandhowtheycanbebestusedinadaptingtoclimatechangeimpacts.Akeyfactoristhenature,geographicscaleandtimingofvariousclimatechangeimpacts.Someelementssuchassealevelrisewilloccurgraduallyovermanyyears,andsointegrationintoaDisasterManagementPlanisnotappropriate.Thetopographyofthelocalareaisanimportantfactorinfluencingtheimpactofclimatechanges–particularlyforlowlyingcoastalareasandareassusceptibletoflooding.Changestothenaturalenvironmentsuchasspeciesandecosystemsmaybegradualastobealmostimperceptible.LocalGovernmentplanswillneedtoaccommodatethisgradual,incrementallongtermchange.

Otherclimatechangeelementssuchasstorms,cyclonesandheatwavesarehighlyvisible,sudden,andextremeeventsthatrequiredisasterplanning.SomeimpactswillhaveastronggeographicvariationacrosstheLocalGovernmentarea,whileothers,suchasheatwaves,willbefeltalmostequally.Somewillhaveimportantimplicationsforthelocationofvariouslanduses(egcyclones,stormsurge,flooding),whilstotherslessso(egincreasingtemperatures).UnderstandinghowthisvariationappliestoaparticularLocalGovernmentareamaybeusefulforplanningeffectiveadaptationmeasures.

Climate change elementSpecific areas /locations

vulnerable?

Nature of the impact

Sudden, extreme event

Gradual, long term change

Cyclones & storm surge Yes

Storms (& flooding) Yes

Increasing temps No

Heat waves No

Decreasing rainfall No

Sea level rise Yes

CASE STUDY

Sydney Coastal Councils: going regional

TheSydneyCoastalCouncilsGroup(SCCG)comprises15memberCouncilsbetweenPortHackingandtheHawkesburyRiver.TheSCCGhasdevelopedpartnershipswithkeyresearchagencies,includingCSIROandMacquarieUniversitytobuildtheknowledgebaseregardingfutureclimateprojectionsfortheregion.Thiswasidentifiedasakeyingredienttoenableassessmentofpotentialclimatechangeimpacts.Asetoflocallyrelevantclimateprojectionsaretobedeveloped.

Stakeholderworkshopsaretobeheldineachof15CouncilareastobringclimatechangeexpertstogetherwithLocalGovernmentstaffandelectedrepresentatives,andkeycommunitystakeholders.Keyobjectivesoftheworkshopsaretoprovideaforumtocommunicatethefutureclimatechangeprojections,andtousetheseasthebasistoidentifylocalvulnerabilitiesandthelikelyclimatechangeimpactsthatmayarise.WorkshopswillalsoexploretheoptionsandcapacityofLocalGovernmentstoadapttoclimatechange.

Theapproachoffersadvantagesintermsof(i)addressingissuesataregionalscalelikelytoberelevantformanyclimatechangeissues,(ii)engagingspecialistresearchagenciestodeveloplocallyrelevantclimateprojections,and(iii)providingtheopportunityforcomplexinteractionstobeidentifiedthroughconsultativeworkshops.

Furtherinformationavailableat:www.sydneycoastalCouncils.com.au/documents/ClimateChangeForum-SummaryReport.pdf

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ClimatechangehasimplicationsforabroadsuiteofplansdevelopedbyLocalGovernment.Theplanswillinfluencelocation,function,scaleanddesignofkeyinfrastructureandfacilities.

Someoftheseplansmayhavearegionalbasis(egtheEconomicDevelopmentPlan),suggestingcoordinationwithotherLocalGovernmentswillbeneeded.

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Increasing temperatures

Decreasing rainfall

Sea level rise

SuDDen, SHoRt teRM eventS

Cyclones

Storm surge

Heat wave

Storms, flooding

CASE STUDY

Gold Coast City – using the latest research

GoldCoastCitywillbeincorporatingthelatestresearchontheimpactsofclimatechangeonlocalbiodiversityintoitsnewNatureConservationStrategy.

TheBiodiversityattheHeights(BATH)project,aninternationalprojectbeingledbyGriffithUniversitywillstudyfaunaandinsectsinLamingtonNationalParkintheGoldCoasthinterlandtoidentifysignsofclimatechangeonbiodiversity.Theprojectwillstudyhowthebiodiversityofplants,insectsandfungichangeoverarangeofaltitudesinthesub-tropicalforest.ThetwoyearprojectwilluseforthefirsttimeinAustraliaacanopyglidertoenablescientiststostudytherainforestfromtheair.

GoldCoastCityintendsusingthefindingsfromthestudytoinformthedevelopmentofitsNatureConservationStrategysothatadaptationmeasurescanbeputinplacetoreducetheimpactsofclimatechangeontheCity’svulnerablespeciesandecosystems.

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WhatadaptationmeasuresareotherCouncilsimplementing?

A2006surveyof113LocalGovernmentsinNSWidentifiedthefollowingbroadrangeofadaptationmeasuresbeingundertaken.

ThE COrpOrATE plANTheCorporatePlanwillbeimportantasitsetsoutthefuturevisionandaimsforCouncil,andestablishesastrategicdirectiontoachievehealthycommunitiesandhealthylandscapes.ItsetsthedirectionfortheCouncilgenerallyforthemedium(atleast4years)term,supportedbytheFinancialPlananddeliveredthroughannualoperationalplans.

TheseplansaretheengineroomsdrivingCouncil’soperationstowardsachievingthecommunityvision.ItwillbeimportanttolinkplanningandactionforclimatechangeadaptationtoelementsofaCorporatePlanandthecycleofcorporateplanning.Climatechangeimpacts:

• Haveimplicationsforcommunityhealthandwellbeing

• Arelikelytohavelongtermeffectsonthenaturalenvironment

• Maywellaffecttheviabilityofactivitiesinthelocalarea,andsoaffectCouncil’seconomicbase,and

• AffectCouncil’sessentialinfrastructureandservices.

Corporate planning Cycle

TheCorporatePlan’splanningcyclehassixstages.Importantquestionsrelatedtoclimatechangeandhowitcouldaffectthefutureshouldbebuiltintoeachstage.

cities for climate change protection program14%

18%

climate change in SoE reports

conduct workshops6%

prepare planning instruments8%

seeking grants12%

measures to record changes5%

10%

development ofmanagement plans

commissioning reports5%

research5%

policy development11%

other6%

Stage 1: Will predicted climate change impacts affect Council’s long term vision and goals?

Stage 5: Are resources or funding available from State, Australian government?

Stage 6: The community expect to be informed on how climate change risks are being addressed by Council.

Stage 2: How should the key strategies to develop the vision reflect climate change impacts? Should major projects be reviewed in light of increased risk?

Stage 3: Community, industry, ROC’s, other governments should be consulted. What strategies require a regional approach?

Stage 4: Projects and activities may need to include adaptation measures to address the highest priority risks.

STAGE 1

STAGE 2Develop theCorporate

Plan

STAGE 3Consultation

and feedback

STAGE 6Annual

reportingand review

STAGE 5Implementthe plans

STAGE 4Develop the

Operational Plan

Reviewstrategicdirection

CORPORATE PLANNING

STRATEGIC PLANNING

COMMUNITYENGAGEMENT

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relevance to the Corporate plan’s Structure

Climatechangeimpacts,risksandadaptationmeasureshaveveryexplicitimplicationsfortheCorporatePlan.

Typical sections of a Corporate plan links to Climate Change

Asset Management Essentialinfrastructure(roads,bridges,waterreticulation,wastewatertreatment,buildings)maybethreatenedbysevereweatherevents(floods,drought,erosion,wind)

Designandlocationoffacilitiesandinfrastructurewillchangetoreflecthighriskclimatechangeimpacts

Longtermplanning,includinglocationforallinfrastructuremustfactorinclimatechange.egwastewatertreatmentplantsmayexperiencereductionsinvolumeofwastewatertreatedandincreasingnutrientconcentrationwithdecreasingrainfallandwaterconservationmeasures.

Growth Management Whicheconomicactivitiestoattracttothelocalareawithalikelylongtermproductivitygivenclimatechangescenarios?

Willclimatechangeimpactsaffectpopulationgrowth?Theareamaybecomemoreorlessdesirabletolive.Shouldprojectionsberevised?

Cantherevisedwatersupplyestimatesaccommodatepopulationgrowthprojections?

Community development and recreation

Healthandlifestyleimpactsmaybefar-reaching.Facilities,services,activitiesmayneedtobeplannedaroundchangedclimateandweatherpatternsorevents.

Thetype,designandlocationofcommunityandrecreationfacilitiesmayneedreview

Thelifestyleofmanycommunitiesisbasedaroundnaturalfeatures-rivers,lakes,wetlands,coasts,beaches,forests.Theimpactsofclimatechangeontheseareascouldchangelifestylesandcommunityvalue.

Environmental Management Significantplantandfaunaspeciesandwholeecosystemsmaydisappearfromthelocalareaovertime

Theconditionofwetlands,rivers,catchments,lakescoulddecline–thishasimplicationsforcatchmentandnaturalareamanagement

Distributionofvectorbornediseasesmaychange-implicationsforpublichealthprogramsandpestmanagement

Economic development Howwilltheeconomicbasebeaffectedbychangingclimate?Rainfallandtemperaturearelikelytobekeyfactors.

disaster Management Extremeeventslinkedtoclimatechangearelikelytoincreasedisasterriskforsomeareas.

Mayrequireregionalapproach,bettercoordinationwithState,AustralianGovernments

development of Art & Culture Willeventsbeaffectedbychangingclimateconditions(egheat,storms,reducedrainfall)

Aresomeevents/activities/facilitiesdependentonplentifulwater–theymaybeaffectedbydwindlingsupply

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Climate change policy

PolicydevelopmentisamechanismusedbyallLocalGovernments.PolicydevelopmentforclimatechangeadaptationisinanembryonicstageinQueenslandandAustralia.

Aclimatechangeadaptationpolicywouldbeausefulinstrumentasitwould:

• ClearlyestablishCouncil’sintentonclimatechangeadaptation

• ProvideaconsistentdirectionacrossCouncil

• BeameansforensuringclimatechangeriskandadaptationwereintegratedacrossallsectionsofCouncil,and

• Generateafocusonthefuture.

Thereisalsocasefordevelopingpolicyattheregionalorsub-regionallevelwherespecificrisksandadaptationapproachesrequireacoordinatedresponseatthislevel.ThiscouldbefacilitatedbytherelevantRegionofCouncils(ROC).

Asanyclimatechangeadaptationpolicywouldbynecessitybeover-archingacrossCouncilsections,functionsandactivities,acheckofotherCouncilpolicieswouldbeneededtoidentifyanyinconsistencies.

ThiswouldprovidefurtherimpetusforappropriatepolicydevelopmentattheStatelevel,andwhendeveloped,wouldbeausefulframeworkforensuringpolicyconsistencybetweenStateandLocalGovernments.

Thediagrambelowoutlinessomeelementsthatagoodclimatechangepolicywouldcontain.

policy element Climate change interpretation

Intent and outcomes clear Levelofrisk,natureofrisk,objectiveofpolicy,geographicareacovered

Links to high level strategy and objectives

ConsistentwithcommunityexpectationsandCorporatePlan

Outlinehowthepolicysupportssustainabledevelopment

Across Council application Achieveconsistencyacrossallsections

ProcessidentifiedtocoordinatewithinCouncil

How implemented Guidelinesonwhenandhowtoapplythepolicyindecisions,plans,projects(toall,orwhichones)?

Identifywhohasleadership,responsibilities

Monitoring and review Reviewedwhenmoreaccurateinformationisavailable

Corporate implications for legal liability

GriffithUniversityhasrecently(March2007)releasedanIssuesPaperexaminingLocalGovernmentlegalresponsibilitiestodealwithclimatechangeconsiderationswhenexercisingtheirfunctionsandpowers.

ThepaperindicatesthatLocalGovernmentsareatriskofincurringlegalliabilityiftheyunreasonablyfailtotakeintoaccountthelikelyeffectsofclimatechange.Thepaperfoundthatthecurrentthresholdofunreasonablenessishigh,andthatLocalGovernmentscurrentlyhaveavailabletothemanumberofdefencesthatseemlikelytoprotectthemfromclaimsbasedonafailuretorecogniseandrespondtoinformationaboutclimatechange.

However,thepapernotedthatthelawinthisareaisevolvingrapidlyandthatLocalGovernmentsshouldtakecaretoensuretheiractionsanddecisionsregardingmattersthatmaybeaffectedbyclimatechangeremaincurrentandreasonableintherapidlyevolvingpolicyandclimatesciencecontext.

Toprotectthemselvesagainstclimatechangelitigationrisks,thepaperrecommendedthatwhenmakingpoliciesanddecisionspotentiallysubjecttoclimatechangeimplications,LocalGovernmentsmaywishtotakeaccountofrelevantdocuments,policies,guidelinesandadvicesuchas:

• StatePlanningPolicies–inparticulartheStateCoastalManagementPlan,andStatePlanningPolicy1/03onMitigatingtheAdverseImpactsofFlood,BushFireandLandslide

• Referralagenciesadvice

• AustralianandStateGovernmentclimatechangestrategies

www.griffith.edu.au/centre/urp/urp_publications/Issues_Papers/URP_IP6_ENGLAND_Climate_LocGovt_final.pdf

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Context and tools

The bigger picture

LocalGovernmentis‘atthecoalface’oflandusechange,developmentandthecommunity.Itisthelevelofgovernmentclosesttothecommunity,andinvolvedinprovidingessentialdailyservices.ManyofthefunctionsthatwillbeaffectedbyclimatechangehoweverareeitheroutsideLocalGovernment’ssphereofinfluence,orareheavilyreliantuponresources,legislationorfundingfromotherlevelsofgovernment.

Animportantmessageinclimatechangeadaptationiscoordinatingeffortandresourceswithotherorganisationsandlevelsofgovernment.Theissueistoofar-reaching–bothgeographicallyandintermsofitsimpacts–tobeattemptedbyoneorganisationonitsown.

Regional

Queensland

Australia

Council

Economic Development

Rural Development

Environment

Law & Order

Transport

Community Health

Education

Recreation & Sport

Energy & power

Coastal management

Land use & development

Waste

Wastewater

Stormwater

FUNCTION

Mai

n l

evel

of

resp

on

sib

ilit

y

Climate Change Impacts

Climate Change impacts

15

Tools for climate change adaptation

Whilstmostofthedriverscausingclimatechangeareinternationalorglobalinnature,manyactionstorespondandadapttotheeffectsofclimatechangeoncommunitiesaregroundedinLocalGovernment.LocalGovernmenthasawidearrayoftoolsandapproachesitcurrentlyusesforcorebusinessthatcanbeappliedoreasilyadaptedtoaddressclimatechangeimpacts.Thetoolboxillustratedbelowpresentsthemostusefulofthese.Notallwillberelevantorcosteffective.Thepointisthataddressingclimatechangeatthelocalleveldoesnotrequireinvestmentinmajornewcapabilities;thecapacityandtoolsarealreadyinplace.

rEGulATE

regulations, laws

policies, codes

development control

Guidelines

INFOrM

research

Education forums, seminars

Website

Information brochures, interactive

local media – TV, newspapers, radio

dESIGN ANd OpErATE

Transport infrastructure

Water supply

Waste facilities

Buildings, venues

plAN

Corporate

planning scheme

disaster management

Catchment

recreation

parks, natural areas

Infrastructure

pest management

Economic development

risk assessment

FINANCE

Investment

Budgets

procurement

Subsidies, grants, rebates, levies

AdVOCATE

lobby with rOC’s

Queensland, Australian Governments

peak industry bodies

ENGAGE ANd FACIlITATE

partnerships

Community groups

Environment groups

universities

Inter-government liaison

Industry bodies

Climate change adaptation is likely to draw

upon a number of these tools and

capabilities

17

SECTION B: ApplICATION TO ClIMATE ChANGE ElEMENTS TherestoftheGuideappliesthefourstep riskassessmentprocesstofiveelementsof climatechange:

decreasing rainfall

Increasing temperatures

Sea level rise

Storms

Cyclones

1�

ThissectionoutlinesasimpleandlogicalprocessforassessingclimatechangeriskstoLocalGovernments’assetsandactivities,anddevelopinganactionplanforaddressingthem.Becauseclimatechangehaswide-rangingimpacts,andLocalGovernmentshavemultiplefunctions,itisusefultohaveastructuredprocessforworkingthroughtherisksandappropriateresponses.

Theprocessconsistsoffourstepswhicharedescribedinthissection.

1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkS

2 prIOrITISING ThE rISk

3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrES

4 ThE ACTion plAn

Climatechangewillaffectthewayweworkandlive.SuchfundamentalchangeswillneedLocalGovernmentstorespondwithwide-rangingthinking,andtoavoidnarrow,inflexibleideasofthefuture.Thesquarewehaveoperatedinforsolonghassuddenlychangedshape–sowewillneedtothinkoutsideit.

Theprocessremainsthesamewhetheritisastrategy,planorprojectactivitythatisbeingassessed.Theonlydifferencemaybethestakeholdersinvolved,thegeographicareacovered,andthelevelofdetailrequired.

TheremainderoftheGuideappliesthesefourstepstofiveclimatechangeimpacts:

A hierarchy of risk assessment

Allriskassessmentisbasedaroundassessingboth:

• thelikelihoodoftheriskoccurring,and

• theconsequences.

Ariskassessmentcanbedesignedatvaryinglevelsofcomplexity,dependingontheprecisionanddetailneededforassessingrisksandthecostsofvariousactions.Thereisahierarchyofthecomplexityofriskassessment,whichissummarisedbelow.

Assessing risk and developing an action plan

•decreasing rainfall

• Increasing temperature

• Sea level rise

• Storms

• Cyclones

1�

Mostriskassessmentisaformofqualitativeassessment.Inmostcases,thiswillprovideaveryusefulbasisforariskassessment.SomeCouncilsmaythendecidetoproceedtoamoredetailedquantitativelevelwhichrequiresadditionalinformationandexpertiseif:

•Therisksarepotentiallysevereorextreme,butmoreinformationisneeded,or

•Adaptationcostsareveryhigh,andCouncilneedsgreaterconfidenceinthebasisofthesedecisionsbeforecommittingfunds.

RangeofpossibleapproachestounderstandingLocalGovernmentclimatechangerisks

Impact Assessment Approach

Inputs Required Process Application

DetailedQuantitiveRiskAssessment

Detailedclimatechangemodelling

Detailedbiophysicalorotherprocessmodelling

Detailedeconomicassessments

Technicalprocessofcouplingclimateprojectionswithotherprocessmodelstoqualifyestimatedclimateimpacts

Situationswherethereisgoodscientificunderstandingofhowsystemsbehave

Situationswherecostsofclimatechangeimpactsand/orresponsearehigh

QualitativeRiskAssessment

Projectionsforkeyclimateparameters

Assessmentofconsequencesandlikelihoodofriskoccurring

Riskassessmentprocesstoenableprioritisationofclimatechangerisks

Consultativeprocesswithkeystakeholders

Wherespecificclimatechangerisksneedtobeidentifiedandprioritised

Wherescientificallypreciseextentofimpactdoesn’tneedtobeknown

InitialRisk‘Screening’

Qualititiveclimatechangeinformation(eggettingwarmer)

Highlevelassessmentofsystemspotentiallyexposedtoeffectsofclimatechange

Mayinvolveexpertjudgement

Whereaquickassessmentofpotentialclimatechangeimpactsisrequired

lEVEl O

F dETA

Il

COST

CASE STUDY

Applying risk assessment

TheWesternPortGreenhouseAlliance(WPGA)wasestablishedtoprovidearegionalframeworkforlocalstakeholderstoprepareforandadapttoclimatechangeintheWesternPortregion.Itsmembershipcomprisesthe5LocalGovernmentssurroundingWesternPort.

Fromaninitiallistofabout100climatechangeissuesthathadbeenidentifiedacrossallsectors,keystakeholdersparticipatedinaseriesofworkshopstoprioritiseclimatechangerisksmostinneedoftreatment.Theprocessusedtodeterminepriorityissueswasasimpleformofqualitativeriskassessment.

Stakeholderswereaskedtorate(usinga5pointscale)boththeclimatesensitivityofeachissue(thedegreetowhichasystemisaffectedbychangingclimateelements)andthecapacityofthesystemassociatedwitheachissuetoadapttoclimatechange(takingaccountofissuessuchasflexibilitytorespond,andaccesstoinformationandresources).Theseassessmentswereusedtogenerateanoverallassessmentofthevulnerabilityofeachissuetoclimatechange,andwasusedasthebasistoprioritiserisksneedingattention.

Furtherinformationavailableathttp://www.casey.vic.gov.au/wpga/

�0

Build on existing work

ManyLocalGovernmentshaveexistingriskassessmentframeworksthatcouldeasilybeadaptedfortheclimatechangecontext.Generally,itisnotnecessarytodevelopnewriskmanagementframeworkstodealwithclimatechange.Thebenefitsofusingexistingframeworksarethatclimatechangerisksareassessedconsistentlywithotherrisks,andtreatedinbalancewithotherprioritiesfacedbyLocalGovernments.

Beforestartingtheriskassessment,reviewtheworkalreadydonefortheDisasterManagementPlan.Thelocalcontextformanyoftherisks,andthetoleranceofthecommunitytovarioushazardsshouldalreadyhavebeenidentified.Thetasknowisusethisinformationasastartingpointforarevisedriskassessmentduetoclimatechange.

1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkS

Animportantinitialtaskistoestablishthecontextoftheassessment:

• determine the scope.DoestheassessmentincludeallofCouncil’sactivities,orisitrestrictedtoindividualsections?

• Establish the process. Whoshouldbeinvolved?Allstakeholderinterestsneedtoparticipateinaworkshopprocess.Youmayneedtoincludeexternalexpertise.

• Establish the risk criteria. Definethecriteriaagainstwhichconsiderationsofrisklikelihoodandconsequencewillbeassessed.ConsequencecriteriashouldrelatetothegoalsorobjectivesofeitherthewholeCouncilorindividualsections.TablesofpossiblecriteriaarecontainedinAppendixB.

2 prIOrITISING ThE rISk

Foreachrisk:

•Considermeasuresalreadyinplacethatmayreducetherisk

•IdentifythedegreetowhichCouncil’sfunctions,assetsandactivitieswillbeaffectedbytheclimatechangerisk

•Assesstheconsequencesandlikelihoodagainstthesuggestedcriteria(refertableAppendixB)

•Assignanoveralllevelofrisk

Atabletoguideoverallriskrating(likelihoodandconsequence)isshownbelow.

likelihood

Consequences

Minimal Low Moderate Major Catastrophic

Almost Certain Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme

likely Low Medium High High Extreme

possible Low Medium Medium High High

unlikely Low Low Medium Medium Medium

rare Low Low Low Low Medium

�1

INCrEASINGTIME, COST,

EFFOrT

4 ThE ACTion plAn

Theriskassessmentandselectionofsuitableadaptationmeasuresneedtobedevelopedintoapracticalactionplan.Thisrequiresconsideringthreetasks:

Internal integration:identifythelinksandintegrationwithinCouncil,acrossallsections.

External partners and coordination:avoidgoingitalone.IdentifyissuesandmeasureswhichareoutsideCouncil’sinfluenceorresponsibility,orextendacrossawidegeographicareathatextendsbeyondCouncil’sboundary.Suchexamplesindicatearegional,stateornationalapproachwillberequired,andacoordinatedeffortimportantforeffectiveaction.

Fine tuning: applyingadditionalfactorswhererelevanttodevelopaplantailoredtoCouncil’spriorities.

3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrES

Adaptationmeasuresvarywidelyinthecost,timeandefforttodevelopandimplement.Generallylowriskswouldrequiremeasuresthatareeasierandlesscostlytoimplement.Consideringahierarchyofmeasuresreflectingtime,costandeffortmaybeusefulinidentifyingthemostappropriateresponses.

Therangeofadaptationmeasuresisextensive.Ausefulframeworkgroupspossiblemeasuresintocategoriestoactasachecklistortriggerforadditionalrelevantmeasures:

Informed and aware Whatthecommunityorparticulargroupsneedtoknow

Clarifyingtheobjective:informationorbehaviourchange

Making plans Reviewingandupdatingcurrentplans(regulatoryandother),andreviewingplansofadjoiningCouncils

Improving design Review,adaptingdesignrequirementsandguidelinestoreducerisk

diversifying, spreading the risk

Encouragingindustriesvulnerabletoclimatechangerisktobecomemoreflexibleandadaptable

location, location, location

Whentoconsiderrelocatingactivities,oravoidnewdevelopmentinhighlyvulnerablesites?

��

decreasing rainfall 1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkS Projectionsregardingfuturerainfallremainrelativelyuncertain,comparedwithanumberoftheotherclimateelements.Thisismainlybecauseoftheshortertermcyclesthatinfluencerainfallaswellasthelongertermclimatechangetrends.However,annualrainfallhasdroppedalongQueensland’scoastbyupto250mmsince1950andcoulddeclinebyanother15%by2030andupto40%by2070(QDNRM2005).Theremaybemoredroughtsasaresult.Therewillberegionalandseasonaldifferencesinrainfallchange,withmostmodelsagreeingthatwinterandspringrainfallinparticularwilldecreaseacrossmuchoftheState.SmallareasofQueenslandmayexperienceanincreaseinrainfall(refermappage6),whichcouldcauseincreasederosionandflooding.

ThefundamentalimportanceofrainfalltopotablewatersuppliesandagriculturalproductionmakethisaparticularlysignificantissueforLocalGovernmentswithsmallorrelativelydrywatercatchments,andforcommunitieslargelydependentonagriculturalenterprisesvulnerabletoreducedrainfall.

possible impacts across core local Government functions

Public safety Decreasedrainfallmaycontributetoincreasedbushfirehazardinspecificareas,posingriskstosafetyofadjacentcommunities

economic development Watersupplyshortagescouldseriouslyreduceorconstraineconomicdevelopmentpotential

DecreasedindustrialandagriculturalproductivityinsomeregionscouldthreatentheeconomicbaseofLocalGovernments

Community & lifestyle Reducedwateravailabilitymayimpactonrecreationopportunitieseglocalswimmingpools,andwateravailableforgardening

Inagriculture-basedcommunities,sustainabilityoflocalservicesmaybereducedintheeventthatagriculturalproductionisseriouslyimpacted

environment Speciesandecosystemsvulnerabletodryconditionsmayalterdistributionorbecomelocallyextinct.Rainforestandwetlandsystemsareparticularlyvulnerable

Financial, legal liabilities Ratebaseaffectedforsomeyearsifeconomicactivitiesarebadlydisrupted

essential infrastructure Watersupplyinfrastructureegreservoirsmaynolongerbesufficienttomeetdemand.Alternativeformsofwatersupplyinfrastructuremayneedinstallingegrecyclinginitiatives,desalination

Damagetobuildingscausedbyshiftingfoundationsduetosubsidence,andincreasedextremesbetweenwetanddryconditions

Reduceddryweatherflowsinwastewaterandstormwaternetworksincreasingriskofblockagesanddryweatheroverflows

Theimpactsabovearenotexhaustive,butindicatearangethatwillaffectallareasofCouncil.ItisforthisreasontheriskassessmentshouldbeundertakenacrossallCouncilactivitiesandinvolvingstakeholdersfromallsections.Thisisfurtherillustratedbytheexamplebelow,whichtrackseffectsandpossibleresponsesacrossvarioussectionsofCouncilforoneimpactfromdecreasedrainfall:reducedorlessreliablewateravailability.

links across Council for reduced water availability impacts and responses

Impact planning & development Infrastructure Community services Environment

Reducedorlessreliablewateravailabilityfromlocalwatersupplies

Futuredevelopmentpotentialimpacteddueto

reducedwatersupplies

Shiftingfoundationscausingdamagetobuildings&other

infrastructure

Recreationalparks&gardensdegradedduetoreducedwateravailability

Reducedflowsdownstreamfromwatersupplyreservoirsdegrade

aquaticecosystems

possible response

Alternativewatersuppliesidentifiedandplannedfor

egrecyclinginitiatives

Buildingstandards&guidelinesupdatedto

reducedamage

Alternativewatersuppliesandwateringstrategies

developed

Reduceotherstressestolocalaquaticsystems;assessminimumflow

requirements

��

2 prIOrITISING ThE rISkRiskisassessedbybothlikelihoodandconsequence,accordingtotheriskassessmentprocessacrossthewholeofCouncilactivities.Thisisacriticalstep,asthelevelofriskwillinfluencewhatadaptationmeasuresareappropriate,andtheirpriority.Belowisasampleofariskassessmentfordecreasingrainfall.

review point:doyouhaveadequateinformationondecreasedrainfallriskstohaveconfidenceinyourassessment?Ifnot,consideracquiringadditional:

• externalexpertise,

• information,whichmayincludeupdatedmodellingforyourarea,ortranslatingscientificinformationatabroadscaletoascaleappropriatetoLocalGovernmentdecisions.

likelihood

Consequences


Almost certain Nopublicwash-offshowersalongbeaches

Increasingdryweatherflowsfromstormwaterandwastewaternetworks

Morefrequentandintensebushfiresinsomeareas

Recreationeventsreliantongoodwaterlevelsinrivers,lakescancelled

Morefrequentand/orseveredroughtsreduceagriculturalproductivityincertainareas

likely Permanentwaterrestrictionsinplaceforresidents

Increasedmaintenancerequiredonsomepublicbuildingsduetoshiftingfoundations

Recreationalparks&gardensaffectedbyreducedwateravailability

Localrainfallreliantwatersourcesperiodicallynotabletomeetdemand

Lackofwateraffectsoperationsandviabilityofindustry,agriculture

possible Certainspecies/ecosystemsbecomelocallyextinctduetoincreasingdryness

Lowwaterlevelsaffectsenergysupplies

unlikely Watersupplydepleted.Watertruckedinfromotherareas

rare

CASE STUDY

Rainwater tanks, building design and plumbing

DecreasingrainfallhascausedmanyCouncilstoexaminealternativewatersupplyoptions,includingrainwatertanks.SomeCouncilshavemadethesecompulsoryonnewdevelopments(egGoldCoastCity).

Arecentstudythatexaminedtheefficiencyandcostofrainwatertankscomparedtootherwatersupplyoptions(desalination,newdams)foundthatthedesignofthebuildingandplumbingaffectedtheefficiencyofarainwatertankasanalternativewatersource,particularlyforretrofittingintoexistinghousing.Factorstobeconsideredinclude:

• Higherdensityhousingisgenerallyunsuitableforrainwatertanks

• Houseswithlargeroofcollectionareasaremuchmoreeffectiveforrainwatertankuse

• Costoftankinstallationdependsonspecifichouseholdfeaturesincludingplumbing.

Theaboveindicateslinkstohousingdesignmaybeneededtoobtainmaximumbenefitfromrainwatertankinstallation.

www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_rainwater_tanks.pdf

��

3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrESResponsesandadaptationstotheriskfromdecreasedrainfallcoverabroadspectrumofpossiblemeasures.Althoughthelistofpossiblemeasuresisextensive,thestructureandkeyissuesbelowshouldbothfocusdiscussionandtriggeradditional,suitablemeasures.

Informed and aware Havethebestpossibleprojectionsoffuturelikelyrainfallpatternsbeenobtained?

Provideinformationtoachievemaximumwaterefficiencies

Informationandeducationwillsubstantiallyreducewaterconsumptionandimprovewaterconservation

Targetedinformationpackageswillbeneededforhouseholds,businessandindustry

Involvingthecommunityinwatersupplyscenarios,optionsandplanningwillbecrucialtobroadacceptance

Making plans Haswatersupplyplanningtakenaccountprojectedreductionsinrainfall?Whatdoestheworstcasescenarioforrainfallindicate?

Useprojectedsustainablewatersuppliesinsettinglocaldevelopmentpotential

Doescurrentlanduseplanningfactorintheprovisionforofalternativewatersupplynetworksegrecycledwater

HaveRegionalEconomicDevelopmentPlanstakenaccountofstressestolocaleconomicbasethatcouldariseduetoclimatechange?Haveinitiativesbeenidentifiedthatcouldbuildresilienceofthelocaleconomytoclimatechange–ortakeadvantageofpossibleopportunities?

Naturalenvironmentplanning–improvetheresilienceofvulnerableecosystemssotheycanadapttoadrierclimate(considerrehabilitation,protection,restoration).

Revisemaintenanceschedulesorsystemstoreducerisksofinfrastructuremalfunctions

Improving design Reducewaterconsumptionbyimproveddesignofparks&gardensfacilities

Reviewbuildingandotherrelevantcodesintermsofstandardsapplyingtobuildingfoundations

Assessthefeasibilityofretrofittingexistingstructurestoincreasetheirsafetyorreliability

Designwatertreatmentplants,watersupplyandotherinfrastructuretoadapttofuturepredicteddecreasesinvolume,increasesinnutrientandchemicalconcentrations

Improveconditionofparksandgardensbyusingdroughttolerantplantspecies,changedmowing,mulchingpractices


Examinealternativesourcesofwatersupplytodiversifysourcesandreducerelianceonrainfalldependentsupplies

Canthelocaleconomicbasebebroadenedtobelessreliantonrainfall-dependenteconomicsectorssuchasagriculture?

Promotealternativeactivitiestoreducewaterusageegrelatedtorecreationand/orgardening

Investigatealternativeformsofindustryandagriculturethatmaybemoresuitabletoadryingclimate


Areasmostvulnerabletodryingintermsofagricultureornaturalsystemsmayneedspecificallytargetedinitiatives

Canfuturedevelopmentbelocatedwherealternativewatersuppliesarefeasible?egindustrylocatedclosetowastewatertreatmentplants

Australia

Queensland

Regional

Council

Stateplanningpolicy/legislation

Advicerelikelyimpacts&bestmanagement

Regionallycoordinatedinitiativestobuildresilience&reducevulnerabilities

Planningschemeinitiativestoprotectvulnerablesystems&enableadaptation

AdApTATION MEASurE: Manage vulnerable ecosystems

�5

4 ThE ACTion plAnTheriskassessmentandselectionofsuitableadaptationmeasuresneedstobedevelopedintoapracticalactionplan.Thisrequiresconsideringthreesteps:

Internal integration: acknowledging the links• Identifyinglinksand

integrationrequiredwithinCouncil,acrossthevariousCouncilsections

Climatechangerisk:reducedwateravailability

Adaptation Measure

Actions external partners Role Lead in Council

Reviewwatersupplyplanning

Updatewatersupplyprojectionstofactorinclimatechange

CSIRO/research

DNRW

Industry,UDIA

Primaryindustry

Rainfallmodelling&predictions

Queenslandwatersupplyprojections

Futureuseandwaterqualityrequirements

Futureuseandwaterqualityrequirements

Infrastructure

Identifyandconductafeasibilitystudyontherangeofpossiblesupplyalternatives

QueenslandWaterCommission

RelevantWaterAuthority

Community

Industry,UDIA

Primaryindustry

Tourism

Acceptabilityofvariouswatersupply,waterconservation,anddemandoptions

Implicationsforeconomicdevelopment,community,environment,urbanareas,agriculturalactivity,tourism

Infrastructure

Involvethecommunityonwatersupplyoptionsplanning

Community(allsectors)

Waterauthorities

Evaluationofoptionsandsupportforpreferredoption

CommunityServices

Fine tuning• Theriskassessmentandselecting

adaptationmeasuressetsthebasicprioritiesforaction.However,thesefactorsmayalsoberelevantinfine-tuninganactionplan:

–communityexpectationsand priorities

–timingforsupport,resources fromotherorganisations, governments

–stageinCouncil’splanningand fundingcycles

–ease/impactofmeasures(what iseasytoimplement,andwill haveasubstantialimpact?)

–whatarewedoingalready? Whatisanewinitiative,and whatbuildsonpreviousactivities?

External partners and coordination: avoid going it alone• IdentifyingissuesandmeasureswhichareoutsideCouncil’s

influence,responsibilityorextendacrossawidergeographicarea.Wherearegionalapproachisessentialforcost-effectiveorcoordinatedaction,orwhereStateandAustralianGovernmentshavesignificantroles,resourcesorresponsibilities.

Australia

Queensland

Regional

Council

Stateplanningpolicy/legislation

Advicerelikelyimpacts&bestmanagement

Regionallycoordinatedinitiativestobuildresilience&reducevulnerabilities

Planningschemeinitiativestoprotectvulnerablesystems&enableadaptation

AdApTATION MEASurE: Manage vulnerable ecosystems

plan + development

Linkstoplanningscheme-facilitate

newoppportunitiesavoidimpediments

Corporate +Community Services

Linkstomanagement

ofcouncilfacilities

InfrastructureImplicationsfor

newand/orexistinginfrastructure

EnvironmentPossible

environmentalimpacts?

Environmentalwaterrequirements

AdApTATION MEASurE: diversify water supply sources

��

Increasing temperatures1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkS Queenslandisgettinghotter.Averageannualtemperaturescouldincreasebyupto2ºCby2030,andupto6ºCby2070.Thelatestprojectionsindicateacontinuingriseintemperatures,withwarmernightsandfewerfrosts.Anincreaseinthefrequency,severityanddurationofextremeevents,suchasheatwavesisalsolikely.Otherimportanteffectsfromrisingtemperaturesareincreasedbushfirerisk,andadecreaseinsoilmoistureresultingfromhigherevaporationrates.Hotterandwindierconditionscouldreducesoilmoisturebyasmuchas18%.

Theabovesnapshotindicatessignificantimpactsforagriculture,thenaturalenvironment,communitylifestyleandhumanhealthandsafety.


Public safety Heatwavesputvulnerablesectionsofthecommunityatriskfromdehydrationandheatstress,especiallytheelderly

Areasofalreadyhighbushfireriskmayresultinsignificantpublicsafetyissues

economic development Decreasingsoilmoisturewillaffectallagriculturalandpastoralactivities

Increasedneedforairconditioningwillputstressonpowersuppliesinmanyareasintheshortterm

Community & lifestyle Outsidesportingeventsmayneedtoberescheduledinexcessivelyhotconditions

Changedworkinghoursandheatprotectiveclothingrequestedbyemployeestosuithotterconditions

environment Vegetationandwildlifecouldbeseverelydamagedbyintensefiresacrosslargeareas

Intensebushfiresinwatercatchmentareascouldcausemajorwaterqualityproblemsforwatersupply,riversystemsandsurfacewaterbodies

Financial, legal liabilities Identifyingareasofhighbushfireriskwillbeimportanttoinformplanninganddevelopmentintheseareas

essential infrastructure Shadewillbecomemoreimportantinalloutsidevenues–especiallyplaygrounds

Putresciblewastewillrotmorerapidly,andmayneedmorefrequentservices

Theimpactsabovearenotexhaustive,butindicatearangethatwillaffectallareasofCouncil.ItisforthisreasontheriskassessmentshouldbeundertakenacrossallCouncilactivitiesandinvolvingstakeholdersfromallsections.Thisisfurtherillustratedbytheexamplebelow,whichtrackseffectsandpossibleresponsesacrossvarioussectionsofCouncilforoneimpactfromincreasingtemperatures.

links across Council for heat wave impacts and responses


Increaseinfrequencyandintensityofheatwaves

Highercostsinenergyconsumptionforbuildings

Council’soutdoorvenues(egplaygrounds)require

increasedshade

Elderlyexperienceheatstressanddehydration

Conditionofparksandbushlandreservesdeclines

possible response

Climatesensitivedesignforpublicbuildings

Designguidelinesupdatedtoprovideadditional

shade

Increasedinformationandvisitstoelderlyresidents

CoordinatewithQPWStodevelopalinkednetwork

ofparks/reserves

�7

2 prIOrITISING ThE rISkRiskisassessedbybothlikelihoodandconsequence,accordingtotheriskassessmentprocessacrossthewholeofCouncilactivities.Thisisacriticalstep,asthelevelofriskwillinfluencewhatadaptationmeasuresareappropriate,andtheirpriority.Belowisasampleofariskassessmentforincreasingtemperatures.

review point: doyouhaveadequateinformationontemperatureriskstohaveconfidenceinyourassessment?Ifnot,consideracquiringadditional:



likelihood

Consequences


Almost certain IncreasedenergyuseinCouncilbuildings

Designguidelinesforbuildingsupdatedreinsulation,ventilation

Deathsfromheatstress

likely Demandforincreasedshadefromstreetfurniture,shelters,awnings

Changedstaffworkinghourstomanageheat

Reducedcommunityuseofoutdoorvenues(egplaygrounds)inhotweather

Poweroverloadfromairconditioning:powersupplyshutsdown

Intensebushfireinwatersupplycatchment

possible Sportingeventsrescheduledinheatwaves

Intensebushfiresinmajorbushlandreserves

Lowsoilmoistureresultsinnonviabilityofagriculturalindustry

unlikely Increasedlevelsofsmokeandairpollution

rare

CASE STUDY

Start early, Finish early – Cook Shire Council avoids the heat

Averagetemperaturesareprojectedtoincreaseunderclimatechange,asarethenumberofveryhotdaysexperienced,andthefrequencyofheatwaveconditions.Apotentialhealthimpactisanincreaseinthefrequencyofheatstress.

CookShireexperiencesveryhotsummers.Inconsultationwithstaff,theCouncilhasinitiatedamoreflexibleapproachtoworkinghourssothattheexternalworkforcecanavoidtheheatoftheday.TheCouncilhasanexternalworkforceofupto40peopleemployedonroadworks,drainageandbridgeworkprojects.

Insteadofthetraditionalworkingdayfrom8amto5pm,theexternalworkforcenowstartsat6.30am,hasalongerbreakintheheatoftheday,andfinishesat3.30pm.Thisisanexcellentexampleofmakingabehaviourchange–inthiscaserelatedtoworkinghours–toadapttoclimatechange.

��

3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrESResponsesandadaptationstotheriskfromincreasingtemperaturescoverabroadspectrumofpossiblemeasures.Althoughthelistofpossiblemeasuresisextensive,thestructureandkeyissuesbelowshouldbothfocusdiscussionandtriggeradditional,suitablemeasures.

Informed and aware Isinformationrequiredonextremeeventsgearedtohealthandsafety–ormoregeneralinformationoneffectsfromincreasingtemperatures?

Informationcanbetargetedtovulnerablegroups(elderly,veryyoung,sportinggroups)

Informationcouldencouragebetterdesignforallbuildingsandstructures–notjustthosemanagedbyCouncil?Coordinatingeffortswithindustrypeakbodieswillbeimportant

Istheobjectivetoinform…orachievebehaviourandattitudechange?Thelatterisalongertermobjective

Making plans DoheatwavesneedtobeincludedintheDisasterManagementPlan?

Agreenspaceplaninurbanareaswillhelpamelioratetheheatislandeffect

Reviewbushfiremanagementplanforpotentialofincreasedbushfirerisk

Integratehighriskareasintotheplanningscheme,localareaplans

Catchmentmanagementplansassessedforincreasedbushfirerisk–especiallyincatchmentsimportantforwatersupply,rivers,lakesorwetlands,orbiodiversity

DoesthelocalorregionalEconomicDevelopmentPlantakeaccountofimpactsfromincreasingtemperaturesanddecreasingsoilmoisture–particularlyforactivitieslinkedtoprimaryproduction?

Improving design Shadeauditsofexistingoutdoorspaceswillidentifyareasforimprovement

Shadestructuresincorporatedintoalloutdoorfacilitiesandaspartofbuildings

Buildingcodereviewtoassessadequacyofexistingdesignrequirementsforincreasingtemperaturesegshade,ventilation,insulation,orientation

Designofstreetfurniture,shelters,awningsforimprovedshadeandshelter

Identifyopportunitiestoretrofitimproveddesignguidelines,andwherenewdesignguidelineswillbesufficient

Areasofincreasedbushfirerisk–reviewexistingguidelinesforappropriateland-uses,ingress,egress,buildingdesign


Planforanetworkofnaturalhabitatthatismoreadaptabletoincreasedfireanddryingrisks

Declineinsoilmoisturemayrequireadditionalirrigationtocompensate;arewatersuppliesavailable,reliableandadequateintothefuture?Whatalternativesarefeasible?

Changedworkinghoursandappropriateworkclothingforstaffgivesgreaterflexibilitytocopewithincreasedtemperatures

Assesstheimpactofincreasedenergyrequirementsforcooling,airconditioningontheenergysupplycapacity

Heatandwatertolerantplantspecies,changingmowingpatterns,improvedgardeningpracticesmayreduceneedforadditionalirrigationinparks


Reviewsuitabilityofspecificactivitiesinareasofhighbushfirerisk.Assessthelongtermsuitabilityoftheareaforprimaryproductionactivitiesgivenhottertemperaturesandlowersoilmoisture.Assesstheoptionsto:

Abandon –orplanastrategicretreatfromactivitiesorfacilitiesinhighriskareasifthecoststoadaptaretoohigh,orrisksremainunacceptable

Accommodate –continuedoccupation,butwithadjustments(egnewguidelines)toprotectassets

Avoid –locatenewdevelopmentinlowerriskareas

��

Climatechangerisk:increasingbushfireintensityandfrequency

Adaptation Measure


Updatedplanningguidelinesforingressandegresstodevelopmentinhighriskareas

Updatebushfireriskmapping

BushfireCRC

EPA/QPWS

Primaryindustrypeakbodies

Bestpracticebushfireriskassessment

Recentbushfireriskmodelling

Implicationsforruralactivities

Environment

Newguidelinesintoplanningscheme

LGAQ

Peakdevelopmentindustrybodies

DeptEmergencyServices

Coordinationwithothergoodexamples

Inputtoguidelines;implicationsfordesignofnewdevelopment

Practicalguidelinesforimplementation

Planning&Development

Applytoallnewdevelopmentapplications

Peakdevelopmentindustrybodies

Community

Supportforimplementation

Implicationsforhousing,safety,environment














Regional

Council

RegionalEconomicDevelopmentStrategy

Peakindustrybodyinput

Assistancepackagetechnicaladvice

AdApTATION MEASurE: Assess soil moisture impact

on horticulture industry

Australia

Queensland

plan + development

Designguidelinestoincreaseshade,

ventilation,insulation


avoidextremeheat

InfrastructureConstructionof

facilitiesusingnewdesign

Environment

AdApTATION MEASurE: reduce heat-stress in outdoor recreation venues

ScheduleeventstoProtectexisting

vegetationcorridors,increase

linkages

Provisionofinformationandlocalsupport

�0

1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkS Measurementsindicatethatsealevelhasbeenrisingoverthelastcenturyandclimatescientistspredictthatthiswillcontinue.Globally,sealevelisprojectedtorisebetween18cmand59cmbytheendofthe21stcentury(IPCC2007).CSIROprojectionspreparedfortheQueenslandGovernmentestimatethatsealevelalongtheQueenslandcoastcouldrisebetween3cmand17cmby2030andbetween7cmand50cmby2070.Thepreciseincreaseinsealevelatanyparticularspotalongthecoastwilldependondetailsregardinglocalcoastalgeography,oceancurrentsandwinddirections.

TheconcentrationofsettlementalongtheQueenslandcoast,andassociatedresidential,commercialandindustrialactivitymakessealevelriseaparticularlysignificantissueforcoastalLocalGovernments.Thoughsealevelrisewilloccurgraduallyandcauseimpactsoveralongperiodoftime,itwillcontributetoclimatechangeimpactsintheshort-termthroughitscontributiontoincreasedstormsurgeandcoastalflooding,whichisdealtwithhereinaseparatesection.


Public safety Contributionofsealevelrisetomorefrequentandgreatermagnitudecoastalfloodingwillposeriskstopublicsafety

economic development Negativeimpactonlocallysignificantcoastaltourismassetsegdegradationofwetlandsystemsduetosaltwaterintrusion

Futureurbanexpansionareasmaybenolongerappropriategivensealevelrise,havingimpactondevelopment-relatedindustries

Community & lifestyle Coastalrecreationareaslikelytosufferseriousdamagethatwillaffectcommunitylifestylesegerosiontocoastalparks,damagetoboardwalks

Increasedloss/damageofprivatepropertyinvulnerablecoastalareaswillimpactsustainabilityofcoastallifestyleinsomeareas

environment Degradationtowetlandsduetosealevelrise,shorelineerosionandsaltwaterintrusion

Lossofbeachwidth,includingincreasederosionandlossofcoastaldunesystems

Financial, legal liabilities Ratebaseaffectediffutureprojecteddevelopmentunabletoproceedbecauseofsealevelriseimpacts

Possiblelegalliabilitiesifdevelopmentpermittedinareassubjecttosealevelrise

essential infrastructure Stormsurgeandfloodingcontributedtobysealevelrisecandestroyordamageinfrastructureinlowlyingcoastalareas:roads,bridges,watersupply,wastewateroutfalls

DamagetoCouncilmanagedboatramps,marinas,coastalboardwalks

Salinationofsurfaceandgroundwatersupplies

Existingcoastaldefencesmaybeinsufficienttoprotectagainststormsurgeandcoastalflooding

Theimpactsabovearenotexhaustive,butindicatearangethatwillaffectallareasofCouncil.ItisforthisreasontheriskassessmentshouldbeundertakenacrossallCouncilactivitiesandinvolvingstakeholdersfromallsections.Thisisfurtherillustratedbytheexamplebelow,whichtrackseffectsandpossibleresponsesacrossvarioussectionsofCouncilforoneimpactfromsealevelrise:saltwaterintrusion.

links across Council for salt water intrusion impacts and responses


Saltwaterintrudesfurtherupwaterwaysandinto

wetlands

Salinationofsurfaceandgroundwatersupplies

Increasedcorrosionofinfrastructure–bridges,

pipenetworksetc

Recreationactivitiesdependantonfreshwater

degraded

Wetlandecosystemsdegraded

possible response

RevisePlanningSchemetodirectdevelopmentelsewhere,orplanfor

alternativewatersupplies

Designguidelinesupdatedtoreducedamage

Assessifanyoptionstoreducedamage,andplannewrecreationfacilities

elsewhere

Plantoenableshiftingdistributionofecosystems;

considerpossibleengineeringsolutuions

Sea level rise

�1

2 prIOrITISING ThE rISkRiskisassessedbybothlikelihoodandconsequence,accordingtotheriskassessmentprocessacrossthewholeofCouncilactivities.Thisisacriticalstep,asthelevelofriskwillinfluencewhatadaptationmeasuresareappropriate,andtheirpriority.Belowisasampleofariskassessmentforsealevelrise.

review point:doyouhaveadequateinformationonsealevelriseriskstohaveconfidenceinyourassessment?Ifnot,consideracquiringadditional:



likelihood

Consequences


Almost certain Coastalparksandrecreationareasdamaged

Degradationofnaturaltourismassetsegbeaches,wetlands

Coastaldunesystemseverelyeroded

Inundationofsomepublicinfrastructureegroads

Somecoastalcommunitiessufferinginundationarenolongerhabitable

likely Increasedcorrosiontoinfrastructureassetsfromsaltwaterintrusion

Futureurbanexpansionareasnolongersuitablefordevelopment

Degradationtofreshwaterwetlandsystems

Touristresorts&facilitiesdamaged

Lossofessentialinfrastructure

possible Salinationofsurfaceandgroundwatersupplies

unlikely

rare

CASE STUDY

Gold Coast City Council assesses the implications of sea level rise for the location of future land development

Gold Coast City has experienced rapid population growth for a considerable period of time, which is projected to continue. Situated along the coast, with considerable further land development anticipated in the coastal plain, the effects of climate change on sea level rise is a significant issue. In many Local Government areas, land development is required to be above the Q100 level (the level of the 100 year Average Return Interval (ARI) flood), however determining this level has not typically taken account of the climate change effect on sea level rise and coastal flooding.

In 1998 Gold Coast City Council pioneered the introduction of the impact of sea level rise in town planning by commissioning CSIRo to conduct a detailed modelling assessment to estimate sea level rise in the region to 2070. there are significant local effects that have a bearing on the actual sea level rise experienced at any specific location, including effects caused by land subsidence and groundwater extraction, and differences in winds and ocean currents caused by climate change itself. Some of these factors are estimated in the CSIRo modelling study, based on the output of the CSIRo climate model, and estimates are made of the sea level rise to 2070.

As a result of this detailed assessment, Council has adopted a 27cm ‘buffer’ additional to Q100 flood levels for new development, in order to accommodate potential sea level rise predicted for the Gold Coast. this was based on CSIRos estimate of most probable sea level rise that may occur by 2070. Gold Coast City have commissioned further CSIRo modelling to add further resolution to this issue – particularly in terms of possible storm surge levels and frequency specific to the local area.

��

3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrESResponsesandadaptationstotheriskfromincreasingtemperaturescoverabroadspectrumofpossiblemeasures.Althoughthelistofpossiblemeasuresisextensive,thestructureandkeyissuesbelowshouldbothfocusdiscussionandtriggeradditional,suitablemeasures.

Informed and aware Dowehavethebestassessmentsofthelikelyextentandrateofsealevelriseinourlocalarea–includingimplicationsforstormsurges

Provideinformationtolocalcommunityregardingsealevelriseandtimeframeoverwhichimpactslikelytooccur–fromshorttermtolongterm.

Generateinformationontheinteractionbetweensealevelrise,stormsurgeandcoastalflooding

Provideinformationtolocalcommunityregardingadaptationoptions

Making plans Haveexistingareasofdevelopmentmostvulnerabletosealevelrisebeenidentified?Dowehavearesponseplandeveloped?

Doesourlanduseplanningschemefactorinsealevelriseinidentifyinglandsuitableforfuturedevelopment?Wherearetheareasofhighestrisk–andarethelandusesappropriate?Whatland-usesshouldavoidthemostvulnerableareas?

Whichplanningschemepoliciesrequirereview?

Isadetailedlocalareaplanrequiredforanylowlyingcoastalareasathighorextremerisk?

Naturalenvironmentplanning–whichnaturalsystemsareatriskofdegradationfromsealevelrise.Considerallowingformigrationorshiftingdistribution,andcoordinatewithQPWS

Improving design Reviewrelevantguidelinesordesignstandards–buildingcodes,walkwaysandboardwalks,boatramps,jetties,marinas,roaddesign

Cancoastaldunesystemsbeimprovedtooffergreaterdefencetolowlyingareas?

Areengineeringstructurescost-effectiveinreducingriskincertainlocations?


Havealternativestowatersupply,wastetreatment,powersupplybeenevaluatedtoensureminimaldisruptiontotheseessentialservices?

Identifyanysignificanteconomicactivitiesthatareheavilyreliantonasingleresourcethatisvulnerabletosealevelrise.Examineoptionstodiversifytheseactivitiesandsospreadtherisk


Whichareasaremostvulnerabletosealevelrise?

Evaluatetheoptionsforthesevulnerableareasandtheirlanduses:

Abandon –orplanastrategicretreatfromfacilities,structures,land-uses,economicenterprisesinhighriskareasifthecoststoadaptaretoohigh,orrisksremainunacceptable

Accommodate –continueoccupation,butwithadjustments(egnewbuildingdesign),actionsandstructurestoprotectassets

Avoid –locatenewdevelopmentinlowriskareas

��

Climatechangerisk:localisedflooding

Adaptation Measure


Assesscoastalareasmostvulnerabletobeacherosion

Updatemodelling&mapping

University

EPA

Harbours&Marine

ROC

Coastalprocessesandmodelling

Coastalmanagement,erosionrisk

Coastalinfrastructure

Regionalcoordination

Environment

Assesshighriskbeachareas

EPA

Harbours&Marine

Beacherosion,erosionriskmodelling

Implicationsforcoastalinfrastructure

Environment

Evaluateoptionstominimisedamagethatcouldarise

University

EPA

Harbours&Marine

Community

Understandingcoastalprocesses

Coastalmanagementoptions

Infrastructureoptions

Communityvaluesandpriorities

Infrastructure

Implementmeasuresthatcouldreduceimpacts

UDIA

University

EPA

Harbours&Marine

Community

Implicationsforurbandevelopment

Longtermeffectsoncoastalprocesses

Coastalmanagementoptions

Implicationsforcoastalinfrastructure

Supportforapproach














Regional

Council

AdApTATION MEASurE: Australia

Queensland

plan + developmentImplicationsforexisting&newdevelopment


Councilfacilities&infrastructure

InfrastructureImplications&

optionsforinfrastructure

EnvironmentMaintainoptionsfor

environmentaladaptation

AdApTATION MEASurE: review planning scheme

revise flood management strategy

Developcommunityfloodpreparedness

Coordinatewithrelevantregionalresponses

Coordinatewithstateemergencyservices

AccessanduselatestsealevelriseR&D

��

Storms1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkSStormintensityandfrequencyislikelytoincreasewithclimatechange.Thenumberofintenserainfalleventsandtheintensityofindividualeventsisprojectedtoincrease,eveninareaswhereadeclineinaveragerainfallisprojected.Returnperiodsoflargereventsisexpectedtodecrease.Averagewindspeedsandgustsassociatedwithstormsarealsolikelytoincrease.Hailstormscouldbemorefrequentthanpreviously.

IncreasedrainfallintensityisaparticularlysignificantissueforLocalGovernmentasitwillincreasetheriskofflashflooding,landslidesandsevereerosionthatcoulddamagesignificantinfrastructureandpublicassets,andcauseconsiderablecommunitydisruption.Moreintensivestormsaffectbothcoastalandinlandareas.


Public safety Safetyofresidentsandvisitorsisofparamountconcern,andwillbethreatenedbyincreasedwindspeedsandintenserainfallevents.Safetyrisksposedbyflashfloodingandflyingdebrismayincrease

Increaseddemandforemergencyservices

economic development IncreasedfrequencyofintensestormeventscouldsubstantiallyincreaseCouncilmaintenancecosts

Morefrequentand/orprolongedfloodingcouldseriouslyeffectregionswitheconomiesparticularlyreliantonroadtransportegwheretourism-basedeconomiesrelyonroadaccess

Community & lifestyle Moreintenserainfalleventscouldresultinmorefrequentand/orprolongedfloodingthatmaysignificantlydisruptaccesstosomeareas,affectingsupplyofgoodsreliantonroadtransport,andaccesstoservices

environment Damagetonaturalsystemscausedbystormeventscouldresultingreaterlikelihoodofpestandweedinvasion

Increasedchanceofcontaminantsbeingtransportedtowaterwaysduringintensestorms–includingfromCouncilwastemanagementsites

Damagetocropsfromhail,wind,rain

Erosionofriverbanks

Financial, legal liabilities Increasedcostsassociatedwithmaintenanceofpublicfacilities

Increasedliabilitymayresultfrombuildingdamagecausedbydesigningtoinappropriatebuildingcodes/standards

essential infrastructure Morefrequentfloodingofroads(includingbuildings)causingwashoutsandotherdamage

Capacityofstormwaterandwastewaternetworksmorefrequentlyexceeded,causingmorefrequentoverflows

Damagecausedbymorefrequentinundationtorangeofutilities–water,wastewater,telecommunications,gasetc

Increasederosioncausingdamagetoarangeofpublicfacilities,especiallyincoastalareas

Damagetobuildingscausedbywind,rain,hail&floodevents

Theimpactsabovearenotexhaustive,butindicatearangethatwillaffectallareasofCouncil.ItisforthisreasontheriskassessmentshouldbeundertakenacrossallCouncilactivitiesandinvolvingstakeholdersfromallsections.Thisisfurtherillustratedbytheexamplebelow,whichtrackseffectsandpossibleresponsesacrossvarioussectionsofCouncilforoneimpactfromstorms:stormwaternetworkoverflows.

links across Council for stormwater network overflow impacts and responses


Morefrequentoverflowsfromstormwaternetworks

Lowlyingareasvulnerabletomorefrequentflooding

Damagetoroadsandotherinfrastructurecaused

byflooding

Increaseddemandonemergencymanagement

resources

Riskofcontaminantsbeingcarriedto

waterwaysduetoflooding

possible response

Ensurecatchmentfloodplanningintegratedwithurbandrainageplanning

Reviewdesignguidelines&wherenecessary

implementupgradeworks

Prepareacommunity‘FloodPreparedness

Strategy’

Planbufferstowaterwaysanduseofwetland

systemsas‘storage’areas

�5

2 prIOrITISING ThE rISkRiskisassessedbybothlikelihoodandconsequence,accordingtotheriskassessmentprocessacrossthewholeofCouncilactivities.Thisisacriticalstep,asthelevelofriskwillinfluencewhatadaptationmeasuresareappropriate,andtheirpriority.Belowisasampleofariskassessmentforstorms.

review point:doyouhaveadequateinformationonstormriskstohaveconfidenceinyourassessment?Ifnot,consideracquiringadditional:



likelihood

Consequences


Almost certain Stormwaternetworkoverflowscauselocalisedflooding

Erosionofriverbanksfromflooding

likely Wetlands/lakesreceiveadditionalflows

Publicbuildingsdamagedbywindgusts

Significantnumberofroadwashoutsrequiringrepair

Hailstormscausemajordamagetocropsinlocalarea

Roadsflooded–manyareasinaccessibleforprolongedperiod

possible Pollutantstransportedtowaterwaysand/orwatersupply

Spreadofmosquitobornedisease

Prelongedlackofroadaccessduetofloodwaters

Wastewatertreatmentplantflooded-severepollutionandhealthrisk

unlikely Drowningscausedonrapidonsetoffloods

rare

CASE STUDY

Storms and building design

TheseverehailstorminSydneyApril1999wasthemostexpensiveinsuranceeventinAustralia’shistory.Areviewofthedamagebytheinsuranceindustryhighlightedsomeusefulimplicationsforbuildingdesignforlocationswithariskofincreasingstormintensity:

• Mostdamageoccurredinbuildingswithtileorasbestosfibrecementroofs(brittlematerials),inadditiontoresultingfloodingandwaterdamagetogoodsandcontents

• Olderstylebuildingsoftenhadnospaceunderneathforcars–resultinginextensivedamagetocarsparkedinstreets

• Costsanddelayssubstantiallyincreasedduetoshortageofskilledbuildingworkers

• Delaysinrepairs(upto12months)requiredmoresubstantialmaterialsthantarpaulins–contributingtothecost.

Thedamagesuggestsappropriatebuildingmaterialsforroofsandcoverforvehiclesmaybeaconsiderationinreviewingfuturedesigncodesinareaspronetoincreasedstormrisk.

��

3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrESResponsesandadaptationstotheriskfromstormeventscoverabroadspectrumofpossiblemeasures.Althoughthelistisextensive,thestructureandkeyissuesbelowshouldbothfocusdiscussionandtriggeradditional,suitablemeasures.

Informed and aware Whatisthequalityofinformationconcerningthelikelihoodandnatureofincreasedstormeventsinthelocalarea?

Localresidentsneedthenecessaryinformationtoprepareforstormevents.Informationtoreduceriskofinjuryorpropertydamagewouldbeuseful

Making plans Haveareasoffloodriskfromextremestormeventsbeenidentified?

Floodlinesmayneedamending,whichhasimportantimplicationsfortheplanningscheme,futuredevelopmentandreviewofimplicationsforexistingland-uses

ReviewtheDisasterManagementPlanforstormsandflooding,andupdateifnecessary.Considertheneedforacommunity-focusedFloodPreparednessStrategy,whichwouldimprovecommunityresponsesinemergencysituations–reducingsafetyrisks,anddemandsonemergencyresponseresources

Havecontingencyplansbeenmadefortheprovisionofessentialgoodsandservicesintheeventofprolongedlackofroadaccess?

Doinfrastructurereplacementplansconsidertheoptionsformovingflood-proneinfrastructuretohigherground?

Thenaturalenvironmentmayhavesomebenefitsfromadditionalflowstowetlands,rivers,lakes,although,turbidorcontaminatedfloodwaterscanposeriskstoseagrass,aquaticecosystems.Environmentplanshelptoimprovetheirconditiontoincreaseresiliencetomoreintensestormevents

Improving design Assesstheincreasedfloodrisktowastewatertreatmentplantsandotheressentialinfrastructure

Reviewrelevantguidelinesorcodes–buildingcodes,stormwaterinfrastructuredesign,roaddesignstandards

Canexistinginfrastructurebecost-effectivelyupgraded?

Canexistinginfrastructure(egdams)beupgradedtocopewithmoreintensivestormsandincreasedfloodrisk?


Candrainagemeasuresbediversifiedtodecreaserelianceonstormwaternetworkandreduceimpactoffloodpeakegoptionsforoverlandflows,retentionbasins,wetlands?

Arealternativetransportroutesavailableintheeventoflocalisedfloodingtosomeroads?


Whatland-usesandessentialinfrastructurearelocatedinareasmostvulnerabletofloodrisk,basedonupdatedmodelling?

Assesstheoptionsfortheseusesandareas:

Plan a strategic retreatfromfacilities,structures,land-uses,economicenterprisesinhighriskareasifthecoststoadaptaretoohigh,orrisksremainunacceptable

Accommodate –continuedoccupation,butwithadjustments(egnewbuildingdesign),actionsandstructurestoprotectassets

Avoid – locatenewdevelopmentinlowriskareas.Avoidcontinueddevelopmentinhighriskareas.

�7













Climatechangerisk:localisedflooding

Adaptation Measure


Reviewplanningbasedonupdatedfloodmodelling


DNRW Floodmodellingapproaches Infrastructure

Incorporateintoplanningscheme

UDIA,Industry

LGAQ

Community

DNRW

Implicationsfornew&existingdevelopment

Coordinatewithothergoodexamples

Implicationsforexisting&futuredevelopment

Technicaladvice


ReviewStormwaterDrainageManual–designstandards

LGAQ

DNRW

CoordinatewithotherCouncils

Designguidelinesandstandards

Infrastructure

Reviewrisktoexistinglandusesinnewfloodproneareas&decideaction

UDIA,Industry

Community

Liaisonreimplications,supportfordecisions

Implications,andsupportfordecisions


Australia

Queensland

Regional

Council

Economicassistancepackage


Optionsforregionalcoordination&deliveryofupgrades

Determineinfrastructurereplacementpriorities

AdApTATION MEASurE: upgrade existing infrastructure

plan + development

Doesplanningschemeseektoreducedisasterrisks


Implicationsfordisastermanagement

resources

InfrastructureIsprotectionof

keyinfrastructuretakenintoaccount

EnvironmentCandisastermanagement

AdApTATION MEASurE: review disaster management plan

initiatives/assetsintegratewithenvironmentinitiatives

egwetlandbasin

��

1 IdENTIFyING ThE rISkSTropicalcyclonesaretypicallyrestrictedtocoastalareasofNorthernAustralia,andareprojectedtobecomemoreintensewithlikelyincreasesinbothrainfallandwindspeeds.Thenumbersofcyclonesexperiencedeachyearcoulddecrease,althoughthisisuncertain.Cyclonesareoftenaccompaniedbystormsurges,whichcanraisesealevelsbyupto0.5metre,causingwidespreadfloodingalonglowlyingterrainincoastalareas.

Thehighlydestructivenatureoftropicalcyclones,coupledwiththecoastallocationformuchofourcommercialactivity,populationandessentialinfrastructuremakesthisclimatechangeelementafocusforcoastalLocalGovernments–particularlythoseinnorthernAustralia.Alevelofplanninghasalreadyoccurredincyclone-proneCouncilsthroughlocalDisasterManagementPlans.


Public safety Safetyofresidentsandvisitorsisofparamountconcern,andwillbethreatenedbyincreasedwindspeedsandstormsurges.

economic development Damagetocrops,tourismandotherindustrycouldthreatentheeconomicbaseofLocalGovernments.

Community & lifestyle Manycommunitiestothenorthareisolatedandwillbeinaccessibleafterfloodingrainordamagetotransportinfrastructure.

Coastalrecreationareaslikelytosufferseriousdamagethatwillaffectcommunitylifestyles.

environment Floodingoftenresultsinthespreadofmosquitobornediseases.

Manyeconomicactivitiesrelyonnaturalresourcesingoodconditionfortheircontinuedproductivity–coralreefs,beaches,wetlands,riversfortourism,fishing.

Financial, legal liabilities Ratebaseaffectedforsomeyearsifeconomicactivitiesbadlydisrupted.

Increasedliabilitymayresultfrombuildingdamagecausedbydesigningtoinappropriatebuildingcodes/standards.

essential infrastructure Stormsurgescandestroyordamageinfrastructureinlowlyingcoastalareas:roads,bridges,watersupply,wastewateroutfalls.

DamagetoCouncilmanagedboatramps,marinas,coastalboardwalks.

Theimpactsabovearenotexhaustive,butindicatearangethatwillaffectallareasofCouncil.ItisforthisreasontheriskassessmentshouldbeundertakenacrossallCouncilactivitiesandinvolvingstakeholdersfromallsections.Thisisfurtherillustratedbytheexamplebelow,whichtrackseffectsandpossibleresponsesacrossvarioussectionsofCouncilforoneimpactfromtropicalcyclones:stormsurge.

links across Council for storm surge impacts and responses


Coastalflooding Lowlyingcoastalareasvulnerabletostormsurge

Damagetoboatramps,boardwalks,marinas

Coastalaccessdisrupted–recreation,tourism,

industryaffected

Coastalecosystems(wetlands,reefs,estuaries,

dunes)damaged

possible response

Erosionrisk&stormsurgelinesupdatedtoreview

locations,setbacks

Designguidelinesupdatedtoreducedamage

Diversifymarineaccesstoreducerelianceonone

accesspoint

Planningtoincreaseabilityofnaturalsystemsto

adapt&recover

Cyclones

��

2 prIOrITISING ThE rISkRiskisassessedbybothlikelihoodandconsequence,accordingtotheriskassessmentprocessacrossthewholeofCouncilactivities.Thisisacriticalstep,asthelevelofriskwillinfluencewhatadaptationmeasuresareappropriate,andtheirpriority.Belowisasampleofariskassessmentforcyclones.

review point:doyouhaveadequateinformationoncycloneriskstohaveconfidenceinyourassessment?Ifnot,consideracquiringadditional:



likelihood

Consequences


Almost certain Coastalparksandrecreationareasdamaged

Coastaldunesystemseverelyeroded

Cropswipedout

Housesdamaged/destroyed

likely Wetlands&fishbreedinggroundsaffected

Touristresorts&facilitiesdamaged

Roadsflooded–manyareasinaccessible

possible Spreadofmosquitobornedisease

Waterreticulationdamaged–watersupplydisrupted

unlikely Pastoralindustrydamaged

Miningactivitydisrupted

rare

CASE STUDY

City of thuringowa – assessing the coastal options

TheCityofThuringowahasstarteda2yearinvestigationofthepossibleimpactsofsealevelrise,coastalerosionandstormsurge,underclimatechange,onthecoastalcommunitiesnorthofTownsville.

TheCouncilhaspartneredwithJamesCookUniversitytoprepareanassessmentofthelikelyimpactsoftheseprocessesonthebeachesandcommunitiesnorthofTownsville,andtoassessavailableadaptationoptions.Theprojectwillincludeaclimatechangeimpactriskassessmentforexistingandpossiblefuturedevelopment,andadetailedassessmentofavailableadaptationoptionsthatincludesconsiderationofreliability,designconstraints,designlife,capitalandmaintenancecosts,andenvironmentalissuesassociatedwithpossibleoptions.

Adaptationoptionsthatcouldbeconsideredincludecapitalworksassociatedwithupgradinginfrastructureorshiftingittolocationslesssusceptibletocoastalflooding,orretreatfromparticularlyvulnerableareasshouldthatbecomenecessary.TheprojectwillprovideCounciltheinformationitneedstounderstandthefullrangeofclimatechangeimplicationsforthesecommunities,andthecostsandbenefitsassociatedwithadaptationoptions.

�0

3 SElECTing rESponSE AnD ADApTATion mEASUrESResponsesandadaptationstotheriskfromcyclonescoverabroadspectrumofpossiblemeasures.Althoughthelistofpossiblemeasuresisextensive,thestructureandkeyissuesbelowshouldbothfocusdiscussionandtriggeradditional,suitablemeasures.

Informed and aware Manygroupsarealreadyawareofrisksincycloneproneareas.Whatadditionalinformationisusefulfortheprojectedincreaseincycloneintensity?

Whichgroupsarethetargetsforinformation?Istheobjectivetoinform,createawareness,influencedecisions?

Whatistheroleofinformationinadaptingtoincreasedrisk?Willitachievethis?

Istheobjectivetoinform…orachievebehaviourandattitudechange?Thelatterisalongertermobjective.

Making plans Doesourcurrentdisasterplanfactorinincreasedintensityofcyclones–andlikelyincreaseindamage?

AreadjoiningCouncils’disasterplanscompatible?WhatservicesaresharedbyadjoiningCouncils(egwatersupply,hospital,airport)–andhowdoesthisaffectus?

Howdoesincreasedcycloneriskaffecttheplanningschemeandplanningdecisions?Wherearetheareasofhighestrisk–andarethelandusesappropriate?Whatland-usesshouldavoidthemostvulnerableareas?

Havepredictedincreasesinfloodsandstormsurgesbeenmodelledandmapped,andtheimplicationsassessed?

Whichplanningschemepoliciesrequirereview?

Isadetailedlocalareaplanrequiredforanylowlyingcoastalareasathighorextremerisk?

Naturalenvironmentplanning–whatisneededtoimprovetheconditionandresilienceofcoastalecosystemssotheycanadaptandrecover?(considerrehabilitation,restoration,protection,restoration).

Improving design Dobuildingandotherrelevantcodesrequirereview?

Canweretrofitexistingstructurestoincreasetheirsafetyorreliability?

Willincreasedfloodandstormsurgeriskaffectwastewatertreatmentplants?

Whatguidelineswillneedreview–buildingcodes,walkwaysandboardwalks,boatramps,jetties,marinas,roaddesign

Cancoastaldunesystemsbeimprovedtooffergreaterdefencetolowlyingareas?

Areengineeringstructurescost-effectiveinreducingriskincertainlocations?


Havealternativestowatersupply,wastetreatment,powersupplybeenevaluatedtoensureminimaldisruptiontotheseessentialservices?

Issignificanteconomicactivityheavilyreliantonasingleresourceorinfrastructureexposedtocycloneimpacts?Cantheydiversifytospreadtherisk?


Whichareasaremostvulnerabletostormsurge,flooding,cyclonicwinds?(hasmodellingandmappingbeenupdated?)

Assesstheoptionsfortheseareas:

Abandon–orplanastrategicretreatfromfacilities,structures,land-uses,economicenterprisesinhighriskareasifthecoststoadaptaretoohigh,orrisksremainunacceptable

Accommodate–continuedoccupation,butwithadjustments(egnewbuildingdesign),actionsandstructurestoprotectassets

Avoid–locatenewdevelopmentinlowriskareas

�1

Climatechangerisk:stormsurgelevelsandimplications

Adaptation Measure


Reviewflood&stormsurgelines;assessimplications


CSIRO

ROC,LGAQ

EPA

Harbours&Marine

Cycloneriskandstormsurgemodelling

Regionalapproachandcoordination

Coastalmanagement

Coastalinfrastructureimplications

Environment

Updateplanningscheme LGAQ

DLGPSR

EPA

Community

UDIA,Industry

Primaryindustry

Regionalcoordinationandliaison

Statelevelconsultation

Coastalmanagement

Outcomesofmodellingandimplications




Evaluatecurrentlandusesforriskandmanagementoptions

UDIA

Industry

Community

EmergencyServices

Supportformanagementoptions



DisasterManagementPlanning












Internal integration: acknowledging the links• Identifyinglinksandintegration

requiredwithinCouncil,acrossthevariousCouncilsections

AustraliaQueenslandRegional

Council

Improvedesignofjetties,marinas

Alternativeboatlaunchsites&facilities

Tourismindustryplanning&support


AdApTATION MEASurE: diversify coastal

tourism enterprises

plan + developmentlinktoplanning

scheme


Effectonlibraries,recreationfacilities

InfrastructureImplicationsforinfrastructure

EnvironmentMosquito

breedingissues

AdApTATION MEASurE: review building code

��

Where to from here?

TheGuidehasdescribedthecontextofclimatechangeforLocalGovernment,togetherwithitslinkstoCouncil’scorebusiness.TheGuidealsooutlinesaprocessforassessingclimatechangerisk,selectingadaptationmeasures,anddevelopinganactionplan.

Building Councillor support

Enlistingthesupportofelectedrepresentativesiscrucialtoachievingeffectiveoutcomesonanyissue.Climatechangeisnodifferent.Thefundamentalapproachneedstotranslatebroadinformationaboutclimatechangeinto“whatitmeansforourlocalarea”context.

Presentingaconvincingcaseforundertakingadaptationmeasuresislikelytoinvolvethefollowingsteps.Noneofthesestepsrequiresdetailedanalysisorcomplexdata;presentinganoverall,summarypictureofpossibleimpactsandrisksshouldbesufficienttogenerateCouncillorinterestandsupport.Moredetailcanbepresentedastheprocessoutlinedinthenextsectionunfolds.

What does climate change mean for our local area?

TranslateQueensland,regionalinformationanddataintoaninitialbroad‘onground’overviewofimpacts,geographicareaaffected,numberofresidencesandpeopleaffected,impactsoneconomicactivities.Thisdoesnotrequiredetailedanalysis,butageneralassessmentthatpresentsapictureofpossibleimpacts.Thepicturemustgiveasimple,localandpersonalcontexttowhatcanbeseenasaremote,globalissue.

how will climate change impact Council’s core business?

Brieflysummarisethegreatestlikelyimpactsoninfrastructure,assets,communitylifestyleandservices,thenaturalenvironment.TheaimistoprovideasnapshotoftheimplicationsacrossmultipleCouncilfunctionsandservices,ratherthandetail.Includeimplicationsforlegalliability(discussedinthisGuide).

Theimplications(legal,financial,community,environment,economic)ifwedonothingcouldbedescribed.

What are community expectations?

Specificinformationonlocalcommunityviewsonclimatechangemaynotbeavailable,butcommunityinformationonmanagingrisks,extremeevents,environmentalissuesorinformationfromconsultationontheplanningschemewillallberelevant.ConsiderwhatCouncil’sresponsewouldbeifthecommunityasks‘willclimatechangeaffectourarea?Whatarewedoingaboutit?

Our next step

Alogicalandpracticalprocessformovingforwardwillbeuseful.Referto‘Startingtheprocess’sectionintheGuideforsuggestions.

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Starting the process

TostartaprocessinCouncilofassessingandrespondingtoclimatechangerisks,thefollowingseriesofstepscouldprovideausefulstructure.

Build Councillor support

ApplytheprocessandstepsoutlinedabovetoenlistCouncillorsupport.Thisisanessentialfirststep

lead AppointacoordinatortoleadanddrivetheprocesswithinCouncil

CoordinateEstablishasmallgrouprepresentativeofsectionsacrossCounciltocoordinatewithintheirsectionandlinkacrosssections

Assess the risksUndertakeariskassessment.Gatherinformationrequired,assessneedforexternalexpertisetoparticipate

review the gapsAssessanyinformationgapsandneedforadditionalinformation,moredetailed,quantitativeriskassessment

AdaptationIdentifyappropriateadaptationmeasures.Assessthosethatneedaregionalapproach

partnersIdentifypartnersandresources;community,regionalQueensland,StateGovernment,AustralianGovernment,industry

CommunityHowtoengagethecommunity?Agreedstrategyforcommunityengagementincludingpurpose,timing,content,process

Guiding principles

ThefollowingsetofeightguidingprinciplesisdrawnfrommaterialintheGuide.Itisintendedtoprovideusefulandpracticalassistancewhenweighingupoptionsandmakingdecisionsrelatedtoclimatechangerisksandadaptations.

1. The tools are already available and being used

LocalGovernmentisalreadymanagingclimaterelatedrisks.Manytools,frameworksandcapabilitiesusedbyCouncilsarerelevanttoclimatechangeadaptation.

�. Avoid making decisions that limit the future (the precautionary principle).

Avoidtakingdecisionsnowthatwillmakeitmoredifficulttomanageclimatechangerisksinthefuture.

�. To wait for full certainty will mean its too late

Climatechangepredictionshavebeenacceptedashighlylikelytooccurbyover2,500oftheworld’smosteminentscientists.Althoughtherearestillareasofuncertainty,theweightofevidence,confidenceinthescience,andthewiderangingconsequencesofclimatechangemeanwecan’twaitfor100%certaintybeforetakingaction.

�. Adaptation can be small and flexible

Anoptionistoputinplacesmall,flexible,incrementalchangesbasedonregularreviewusinginformationavailableatthetime,ratherthanrelyingonone-off,large-scaletreatments.Thisleavesscopefordecisionstobereviewedinthefutureasimprovedinformationbecomesavailable.Thisapproachalsoreducesthepotentialforunnecessaryadaptation.

5. don’t go it alone

ClimatechangeaffectsallLocalGovernments,withsimilarchangesoftenexperiencedattheregionalscale.Manyrisksandadaptationmeasureswillbemoreeffective,andlesscostlyifanintergovernmentalapproachistakentoaccessresourcesandfunding.Workingwithindustrybodies,andscientistsisalsopartofthecooperativepicture.

�. Include in decisions now

Allnewinfrastructurewithalifeof10+yearsshouldtakeclimatechangerisksintoaccountnowforfunction,designandlocation.

7. Track change

Climatechangeinformationandadaptationmeasuresisafieldthatisnewbutrapidlychanging–especiallyforLocalGovernment.Examplesof‘bestpractice’adaptations–bothnationallyandinternationally,andupdatedtechnicalinformationisquicklybecomingavailable.Alinkednetworktolearnfromotherswillbeanimportanttool.

�. Think long term

Manyadaptationswillrequireplanningandimplementingoverthelongterm–whichwillextendwellbeyondthe4yearelectoralcycle.

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Workshop resourcesA. Overall process

1. Building Councillor support

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What does climate change mean for our local area?

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how will climate change impact Council’s core business?

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What are community expectations?

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Our next step

...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

�. Starting the process

Build Councillor support

lead

Coordinate

Assess the risks

review the gaps

Adaptation

partners

Community

B. Assessing the risk and developing an action plan

Select a specific climate change risk to work through this section. Refer to the relevant climate change elements for suggestions.

1. Identify the risks

• determine the scope ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

• Establish the process ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

• Establish the risk criteria .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

�. prioritising the risk

likelihood

Consequences


Almost Certain Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme

likely Low Medium High High Extreme

possible Low Medium Medium High High

unlikely Low Low Medium Medium Medium

rare Low Low Low Low Medium

�. Select adaptation measures

Adaptation measures response/actions

Informed and aware

Making plans

Improving design



�. Action plan

Internalintegration:acknowledgingthelinks

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plan + development


Infrastructure Environment

AdApTATION MEASurE: ......................................................................

5. Action plan for a sample adaptation measure

Adaptation Measure


resources

Queensland and Australian Government Climate Change resources

CASE STUDY

the Australian Greenhouse office (AGo)

Thisisthekeyagencyongreenhousematters,responsibleforcoordinatingAustralianclimatechangepolicy,andfordeliveringthemajorityofprogramsundertheAustralianGovernment’sclimatechangestrategy.

TheAGOoffersfundingandarangeofotherservicestosupportLocalGovernment,includingtheNationalAdaptationFrameworkforclimatechange.Theframeworkincludesactionstoassistthemostvulnerablesectorsandregions,suchasagriculture,biodiversity,fisheries,forestry,settlementsandinfrastructure,coastal,waterresources,tourismandhealthtoadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.Itsaimistohelpplanningbodies,farmers,businessesandLocalGovernmenttounderstandbettertheimpactsofclimatechangeandtodevelopresponses.

ThenewAustralianCentreforClimateChangeAdaptationwillcommissionscientificworktodeveloptangibleresponsestoclimatechange.Examplesofactivitiesthatcouldbefundedinclude:

• protectingcoastalinfrastructurefromlikelychangesinstormsurge

• thedesignofaheatwavewarningsystemandwaystomodifyfacilitiestocaterforthosemostatrisk(theelderly);

• planforexpandingtheuseoffeedlotsbyfarmerstoreducetheexposureoftheirvaluablestocktovariationinpastureavailabilityandheatstress;and

• identifyingareasinnationalparksthatwillprovidethebestareasforrecolonisationofplantsandanimalsthathavebeendisplacedbyclimaticchange.

TheAGOalsomanagesLocalGreenhouseAction;aninitiativewhichassistsLocalGovernment,communitiesandindividualhouseholdsreducetheirgreenhousegasemissions.

www.greenhouse.gov.au

Queensland Government

TheStateGovernmenthasformedtheQueenslandClimateChangeCentreofExcellence(QCCCE).LaunchedinMarch2007,QCCCEprovidesscienceandpolicyadviceonclimatevariability,climatechangemodellingandclimatechangeimpactsonthecommunity,economyandenvironment.

TheQCCCEhasrecentlyfinalisedtheClimateSmartAdaptation2007-12:anactionplanformanagingtheimpactsofclimatechange.Itincludes62actions,focusingonanumberofprioritysectors:waterplanningandservices;agriculture;humansettlements;naturalenvironmentandlandscapes;emergencyservicesandhumanhealth;tourism,businessandindustry;andfinanceandinsurance.

TheplanalsoincludesactionstobetterunderstandthelikelyimpactsofclimatechangeonQueensland’sregionsandsectors.Thisincludespreparingregional-scaleclimatechangeprojectionsforpriorityareas,tooffermorelocalisedinformationforplanninganddecision-making.

TheCentrewillhelpdeveloplocallyrelevantresponsesbyworkingonaregionalbasiswithLocalGovernments,asitrecognisestheirimportantroleinmanagingtheimpactsofclimatechange‘ontheground’.

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Thereferencesandresourcesreferredtobelowarethosereferredtointhisguide,andotherclimatechangeresourcesconsideredtobeusefulforLocalGovernmentsinQueenslandthataredevelopingclimatechangeresponses.

General

IPCC2001.ClimateChange2001:SynthesisReport.ContributionofWorkingGroupsI,II,andIIItotheThirdAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.IPCC

Climate Change Science

Cai,W.,S.Crimp,R.Jones,K.L.McInnes,P.J.Durack,R.Cechet,J.Bathols,andS.Wilkinson,2005.ClimatechangeinQueenslandunderenhancedgreenhouseconditions:Report,2004-2005.CSIROMarineandAtmosphericResearchreportfortheQueenslandGovernment.www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/ClimateChanges/pub/CSIRO2005.html#end

CSIRO,2001.ClimatechangeprojectionsforAustralia.Technicalreport,CSIROAustralia.www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/projections2001.pdf

IPCC,2007.ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasis.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheFourthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange-SummaryforPolicymakers.www.ipcc.ch/WG1_SPM_17Apr07.pdf

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

QueenslandDepartmentofNaturalResources&Mines,2005.ClimateSmartAdaptation–APublicDiscussionPaper.www.nrw.qld.gov.au/science/pdf/climate_smart_adaptation.pdf

Preston,B.L.andJones,R.N.,2006.ClimateChangeImpactsonAustraliaandtheBenefitsofEarlyActiontoReduceGlobalGreenhouseGasEmissions-AconsultancyreportfortheAustralianBusinessRoundtableonClimateChange.CSIRO.www.csiro.au/files/files/p6fy.pdf

QueenslandDepartmentofNaturalResources&Mines,2004.QueenslandClimateChangeandCommunityVulnerabilitytoTropicalCyclones.ProjectSynthesisReport–August2004.www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/ClimateChanges/pub/OceanHazardsSynthesis.html

Pittock,B.,2003.ClimateChange–AnAustralianGuidetotheScienceandPotentialofImpacts.DepartmentfortheEnvironmentandHeritage,AustralianGreenhouseOffice.www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/guide/index.html

AllenConsultingGroup,2005.Climatechangeriskandvulnerability:promotinganefficientadaptationresponseinAustralia.DepartmentfortheEnvironmentandHeritage,AustralianGreenhouseOffice.www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/risk-vulnerability.html

IPCC,2007.ClimateChange2007:Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerability.ContributionofWorkingGroupIItotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeFourthAssessmentReport-SummaryforPolicymakers.www.ipcc.ch/SPM13apr07.pdf

Willows,R.andConnell,R.(eds.),2003.Climateadaptation:Risk,uncertaintyanddecision-making,UKCIPTechnicalReport,Oxford.

Economic Costs of Climate Change

Stern,Nicholas,2006.TheEconomicsofClimateChange.TheSternReview.CabinetOffice-HMTreasury.www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm Climate Change & risk Management

AustralianGreenhouseOffice,2006.ClimateChangeImpacts&RiskManagement-AGuideforBusinessandGovernment.PreparedfortheAustralianGreenhouseOffice,DepartmentofEnvironmentandHeritageby:BroadleafCapitalInternationalMarsdenJacobAssociates.www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/risk-management.html

StandardsAustralia,2004.AS/NZS4360:2004RiskManagement.StandardsAustralia,2004.HandbookHB436RiskManagement.

Climate Change Adaptation & local Government

ThefollowingweblinksprovideaccesstoinformationregardingkeyinitiativesaroundAustraliaseekingtoidentifyandrespondtoclimatechangeimpactsfacingLocalGovernments;

New South Waleswww.lgsa.org.au/www/html/253-climate-change.asp

Sydney Coastal Councils Groupwww.sydneycoastalCouncils.com.au/documents/ClimateChangeForum-SummaryReport.pdf

Western port Greenhouse Alliancewww.casey.vic.gov.au/climatechangeinwesternport/

Tasmaniawww.lgat.tas.gov.au/site/page.cfm?u=540

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AppendixA Queensland climate projections and potential impactsThefollowingdetailsrelatetoprojectionsoffutureQueenslandclimatepreparedfortheQueenslandGovernmentbyCSIRO(Caietal.2005).

Temperature projections

AccordingtotheCSIROprojections,thetrendtowardshighertemperatureswillaccelerate,withprojectionsshowingincreasesinaveragetemperaturesofbetween0.3°Cand2°Cby2030andbetween0.9°Cand6.4°Cby2070,withinlandareastendingtowarmmorerapidlythancoastalareas(seeFigureA-1).Aswithglobaltemperatureincreases,futuretemperaturerisesinQueensland,includingthenumberofdaysabove35°C,canbeexpectedtobeinthemidtoupperendoftheranges,projectedfor2030,andthemid-rangesfor2070,duetocontinuingstronggrowthinglobalemissions.

2.30.4

2.10.3

1.80.4

1.80.2

1.60.2

1.30.2

ANN DJF MAM JJA SON

7.21.1

6.40.9

5.61.1

5.60.7

4.80.7

4.00.7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

ANN DJF MAM JJA

2030

Temperature Change (oC) Temperature Change (oC)

2070

SON

Figure A-1 Average annual and seasonal temperature change (°C) for 2030 and 2070 relative to 1990. The coloured bars show ranges of change for areas with corresponding colours in the maps. ANN is annual temperature change; DJF is summer (December-February); MAM is autumn (March-May); JJA is winter (June-August) and SON is spring (September-November).

50

rainfall projections

Thereisgreateruncertaintywithprojectionsofrainfallthanoftemperature,withnotallmodelsagreeingonwhetherrainfallislikelytoincreaseordecrease.Hence,inFigureA-2,therangesincludenegative(declines)andpositive(increases)values.Forexample,averageannualrainfallcouldbeanythingbetweenadeclineof13%andanincreaseof7%abovethe1990saverageby2030forthelargeareaofpaleyellow.Thegreyareasonthesamemapindicaterainfallcouldbebetween7%belowand7%above1990levelsby2030.Onlytheredareasshowallmodelsagreeonadeclineinrainfall(ofupto20%by2030).Thereisleastcertaintyregardingthesummerrainfall(increaseordecreaseofupto13%by2030and40%by2070)asindicatedbythelargeareasofgrey.Thereismuchgreatercertaintyforspring,withlargeareasofredindicatingadeclineofupto20%by2030.

ANN DJF MAM JJA SON

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Rainfall Change(%)

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Rainfall Change(%)

13-13

7-7

7-26

0-20

7-20

13-20

7-13

13-7

40-40

20-20

20-80

0-60

20-60

40-60

20-40

40-20

ANN DJF MAM JJA SON

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Rainfall Change (oC)

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Rainfall Change (oC)

2030 2070

Figure A-2 Rainfall projections for Queensland. Average annual and seasonal rainfall change (% change) for 2030 and 2070 relative to 1990. The coloured bars show the range of possible change for areas with corresponding colours in the maps. ANN is annual rainfall change; DJF is summer (December-February); MAM is autumn (March-May); JJA is winter (June-August) and SON is spring (September-November).

Evaporation

Annualpotentialevaporationisprojectedtoincreasebyupto13%by2030andupto40%by2070(FigureA3)overlargeareasoftheState.Potentialevaporationistheamountofwaterthatwouldevaporatefromawetsurfaceinanygivenclimate.Actualevaporationistheamountofwaterthatactuallyevaporatesfromasurfaceandwillusuallybelessthanpotentialevaporation.Itcouldbezeroifthereisnowateravailabletoevaporate.

Evapotranspiration(ET)isthetransferofwaterfromthelandscapetotheatmosphere,acombinationofevaporationfromsoilandplanttranspiration.EvapotranspirationisacriticalcomponentofthewatercycleinAustralia,withover90%ofrainfallreturnedtotheatmospherethroughevapotranspiration.

51

ANN DJF MAM JJA SON

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Evaporation (%)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Evaporation (%)

ANN DJF MAM JJA SON

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Evaporation (%)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Evaporation (%)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Evaporation (oC)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Evaporation (oC)

2030 2070

SONANN DJF MAM JJA

1

1

2

2

0

1

8

13

13

16

16

21

2

2

4

4

0

2

24

40

40

48

48

64

Figure A-3 Average annual and seasonal potential evaporation change (°C) for 2030 and 2070 relative to 1990. The coloured bars show the range of possible change for areas with corresponding colours in the maps.

Evaporationchangesneedtobeconsideredwithrainfallchangestobetterunderstandsoilmoisture,streamflowchangesandplantgrowth.ThelargechangesinpotentialevaporationoverCapeYorkPeninsulainsummerandautumnarerelativetoalowerbasecomparedwithotherpartsoftheState,andsoinabsolutetermsarelessdramaticthentheyappearinFigureA-3.

Extreme events

TheAustraliandroughtin2002isconsideredoneoftheworstonrecord,becauseofthecombinationofrainfalldeficitstogetherwithhightemperaturesandevaporation.Withtheprojectedincreaseintemperature,futuredroughtscouldalsobemoresevere.MorefrequentElNiñosarealsoexpected,indicatingmoredryspellsforeasternandsouthernAustralia.

Tropicalcyclonesareprojectedtobecomemoreintense,witha20-30%increaseinmaximumprecipitationratesanda5-10%increaseinmaximumwindspeedby2050.Theareaoftropicalcycloneformationisnotexpectedtochange.ThenumbersoftropicalcyclonesintheAustralianregionisstronglyinfluencedbyENSO,sothenumberofcyclonesinfuturewilldependonhowclimatechangeaffectsENSO.Recentworkindicatesthattropicalcyclonenumbersarelikelytodecreasebyabout13%by2030and30%by2070.TheaverageprojectedincreaseinstormsurgefortheeastcoastofQueenslandisabout0.5m,althoughthechangeatparticularlocationsdependsonotherfactorsincludingtheshapeofthecoast.

Thenumberofintenserainfalleventsisprojectedtoincrease,eveninareaswhereadeclineinaveragerainfallisprojected.Returnperiodsoflargereventsisexpectedtodecrease,andthenumberofsmallerrainfalleventsisexpectedtodecrease.Forexamplea1-in-40yeareventcouldbecomea1-in-15yearevent.

Theobservedtrendsinextremetemperaturesareprojectedtocontinue.TheprojectedchangesinthenumberofextremehotdaysforanumberofQueenslandcentresaresummarisedelsewhereinthisGuide.

Bushfireweatherandfire-dangerisexpectedtoincreasewiththeincreasesintemperatureanddrierconditions.Withadoublingofcarbondioxideconcentrationsintheatmosphere,thenumberofdaysofveryhighandextremefiredangerincreases,duelargelytothehighertemperatures.However,theactualbushfiresriskalsodependsonfuelload,whichcouldbelessindrierconditions.

5�

potential Queensland climate change impacts over a range of possible temperature increases

In2006,CSIROreviewedthestudiesthathavesoughttoestimatethemagnitudeofclimatechangeimpactoverarangeof21stcenturytemperaturechangesfrom~1°Cupto~5+°C(roughlytheupperestimateforprojected21stcenturyglobalmeantemperaturechange)(Preston&Jones2006).Theseestimateswillimproveasunderstandingicreasesregardingtheprocessesbywhichclimatechangeinfluencesthefunctioningofsystems,butprovideanindicativesnapshotofsomeoftheimpactsthatcouldbeexperiencedacrossQueenslandforarangeofpossibletemperatureincreases.

Temperature Increase (ºC)

public health Settlements & Infrastructure Ecosystems

<1 4–12moredeathsperannumin65-yearagegroupinNtropicalcities

Noincreaseinpopulationatriskofdengue

3%decreasesinthermalefficiencyofelectricitytransmissioninfrastructure


BleachinganddamagetotheGreatBarrierReefequivalentto1998upto50%ofyears

60%oftheGreatBarrierReefisregularlybleached

50%decreaseinhabitatforvertebratesinnorthernAustraliatropics

63%decreaseinGoldenBowerbirdhabitatinNAustralia

50%decreaseinmontanetropicalrainforestareainNAustralia

25%ofcorehabitatlostforEucalyptus

1-� Southwardspreadofmalariareceptivezones

Populationatriskofdengueincreasesfrom0.17millionto0.75-1.6million

10%increaseindiarrhoealdiseasesamongAboriginalchildrenincentralAustralia

100%increaseinnumberofpeopleexposedtoflooding

IncreasedinfluxofrefugeesfromPacificIslands

100yearstormsurgeheightaroundCairnsincreases22%;areafloodeddoubles


Upto58–81%oftheGreatBarrierReefisbleachedeveryyear

Hardcoralreefcommunitiesarewidelyreplacedbyalgalcommunities

90%decreaseincorehabitatforvertebratesinnorthernAustraliatropics

88%ofbutterflyspecies’corehabitatdecreases

�-� Furthersouthwardspreadofmalariareceptivezones

Temperaturerelatedmortalityamongpeople65+yearsinAustraliancapitalcitiesincreasesby89–123%

SouthwardexpansionofdenguetransmissionzoneasfarasBrisbane

17%increaseinroadmaintenancecostsovermostofAustralia

PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases3-15%

5–10%increaseintropicalcyclonewindspeeds

20–30%increaseintropicalcyclonerainfall

10%increaseinforestfiredangerindexinN,SW,andWAustralia

97%oftheGreatBarrierReefisbleachedeveryyear

92%ofbutterflyspecies’corehabitatdecreases

98%decreaseinGoldenBowerbirdhabitatinNAustralia

�-� Temperaturerelatedmortalityamongpeople65+yearsinAustraliancapitalcitiesincreasesby144–200%


Catastrophicmortalityofcoralspeciesannually

95%decreaseindistributionofGreatBarrierReefspecies

65%lossofGreatBarrierReefspeciesintheCairnsregion

55%ofcorehabitatlostforEucalyptus

25–50%decreasein“generic”timberyieldinNQueenslandandTopEnd

�-5 PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases9–25%

>5 PeakelectricitydemandinBrisbaneincreases10–25%

90–100%ofcorehabitatlostformostAustralianvertebrates

(adaptedfromPreston&Jones2006)

5�

Possible consequence assessment criteria for a climate change risk assessment conducted across the full spectrum of Council interests (adapted from AGO 2006)

Rating Public Safety Local Economy & Growth

Community & Lifestyle

Environment & Sustainability

Public Administration - Financial &/or Legal Liabilities

Minimal Appearance of a threat but no actual harm

Minor shortfall relative to current forecasts

There would be minor areas in which the region was unable to maintain its current services

No environmental damage

There would be minor instances of public administration being under more than usual stress but it could be managed,eg <$10 KNo legal action

Low Serious near misses or minor injuries

Individually significant but isolated areas of reduction in economic performance relative to current forecasts

Isolated but noticeable examples of decline in services

Minor instances of environmental damage that could be reversed

Isolated instances of public administration being under severe pressureeg >$10K - <$100KLitigation / fines to $100KMinor delays in statutory requirements

Moderate Small numbers of injuries

Significant general reduction in economic performance relative to current forecasts

General appreciable decline in services

Isolated but significant instances of environmental damage that might be reversed with intensive efforts

Public administration would be under severe pressure on several frontseg >$100 K - <$1 MLitigation / fines to $1MModerate delays to statutory requirements

Major Isolated instances of serious injuries or loss of lives

Regional stagnation such that businesses are unable to thrive and employment does not keep pace with population growth

Severe and widespread decline in services and quality of life within the community

Severe loss of environmental amenity and a danger of continuing environmental damage

Public administration would struggle to remain effective and would be seen to be in danger of failing completelyeg >$1 M - <$20 MLitigation / fines to $20MMajor delays to statutory requirements

Catastrophic Large numbers of serious injuries or loss of lives

Regional decline leading to widespread business failure, loss of employment and hardship

The region would be seen as very unattractive, moribund and unable to support its community

Major widespread loss of environmental amenity and progressive irrecoverable environmental damage

Public administration would fall into decay and cease to be effectiveeg >$20 MLitigation / fines over $20MUnable to meet statutory requirements

Possible consequence assessment criteria for a climate change risk assessment conducted across the engineering services/infrastructure business activities of a Council.

Rating Public Safety Service Quality Service Delivery Cost

Minimal Appearance of a threat but no actual harm

Minor deficiencies in principle that would pass without comment

Minor technical shortcomings in service delivery would attract no attention

Minor cost impact, requiring occasional additional maintenance

Low Serious near misses or minor injuries

Services would be regarded as satisfactory by the general public but personnel would be aware of deficiencies

There would be isolated instances of service delivery failing to meet acceptable standards to a limited extent

Further routine maintenance may be required involving low level additional cost

Moderate Small numbers of injuries

Services would be regarded as barely satisfactory by the general public and the organisation’s personnel

There would be isolated but important instances of services being poorly targeted or delivered late

Relatively significant additional maintenance required, or some infrastructure destruction

Major Isolated instances of serious injuries or loss of lives

The general public would regard the organisation’s services as unsatisfactory

There would be isolated instances of services being incorrectly targeted, delivered late or not delivered at all

Infrastructure failure or destruction causing major cost impact

Catastrophic Large numbers of serious injuries or loss of lives

Services would fall well below acceptable standards and this would be clear to all

Services would be incorrectly targeted, delivered late or not at all in a large number of cases

Infrastructure failure or destruction causing very significant cost impact

Likelihood Scale (from AGO 2006)

Rating Recurrent Risks Single Events

Almost certain Could occur several times per year More likely than not • Probability greater than 50%

Likely May arise about once per year As likely as not • 50/50 chance

Possible May arise once in ten years Less likely than not but still appreciable • Probability less than 50% but still quite high

Unlikely May arise once in ten years to 25 years Unlikely but not negligible • Probability low but noticeably greater than zero

Rare Unlikely during the next 25 years Negligible • Probability very small, close to zero

AppendixB risk assessment criteria

5�

Glossary

Adaptation-Actionsinresponsetoactualorprojectedclimatechangeandimpactsthatleadtoareductioninrisksorarealisationofbenefits.

Adaptive capacity -Thecapacityofanorganisationorsystemtomoderatetherisksofclimatechange,ortorealisebenefits,throughchangesinitscharacteristicsorbehaviour.Adaptivecapacitycanbeaninherentpropertyoritcouldhavebeendevelopedasaresultofpreviouspolicy,planningordesigndecisionsoftheorganisation.

Climate - Thecompositeofsurfaceweatherconditionssuchastemperature,rainfall,atmosphericpressure,humidity,sunshineandwinds,averagedoveraperiodoftimerangingfrommonthstothousandsofyears.

Climate change -Anychangeinclimateovertime,whetherduetonaturalvariabilityorasaresultofhumanactivity.

Climate impacts -Consequencesofclimatechangeonnaturalandhumansystems.

Climate scenario -Aplausiblebutoftensimplifieddescriptionofapossiblefuturestateoftheclimate.Aclimatescenarioshouldnotbeviewedasapredictionofthefutureclimate.Rather,itprovidesameansofunderstandingthepotentialimpactsofclimatechange,andidentifyingthepotentialrisksandopportunitiestoanorganisationcreatedbyanuncertainfutureclimate.

Climate projection -Aprojectionoftheresponseoftheclimatesystemtoscenariosofgreenhousegasemissionsoratmosphericconcentrationsofgreenhousegases.Climateprojectionsareoftenbaseduponsimulationsoftheclimatesystembycomputerbasedmathematicalmodels.

exposure -Thenatureanddegreetowhichasystemisexposedtosignificantclimaticvariations.

Heat wave - Periodoftimeofunusuallyhighheatthataffectsthepopulation.

Resilience -Amountofchangeasystemcanundergowithoutchangingstate.

Risk -Thepossibilityofsomethinghappeningthatwillhaveanimpactonobjectives.Ariskisoftenspecifiedintermsofaneventorcircumstanceandtheconsequencesthatmayflowfromit.Riskismeasuredintermsofacombinationoftheconsequencesofaneventandtheirlikelihoods.Riskmayhaveapositiveornegativeimpact.

Risk assessment - Theoverallprocessofidentifyinghazardsandconsequences,characterisedintermsoftheirprobabilityandmagnitude,andtheirsignificanceassessed.

Risk identification - Theprocessofdeterminingwhat,where,when,whyandhowsomethingcouldhappen.

Sensitivity -Thedegreetowhichasystemisaffected,eitheradverselyorbeneficially,byclimaterelatedvariablesincludingmeans,extremesandvariability.

vulnerability -Theextenttowhichasystemororganisationcancopewiththenegativeimpactsofclimatechange,variabilityandextremes.Vulnerabilityisafunctionofthecharacter,magnitude,andrateofclimatevariationtowhichasystemisexposed,itssensitivity,anditsadaptivecapacity.

Sources:IPCC(2001),UKCIP(2003),AGO(2006)

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Abbreviations

Co2 CarbonDioxide

CRC CooperativeResearchCentre

CSIRo CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation

DLGPSR DepartmentofLocalGovernment,Planning,SportandRecreation

DnRW DepartmentofNaturalResourcesandWater

ePA EnvironmentProtectionAgency

LGAQ LocalGovernmentAssociationofQueensland

nRM NaturalResourceManagement

QDnRM QueenslandDepartmentofNaturalResourcesandMines(nowNaturalResourcesandWater)

QPWS QueenslandParksandWildlifeService

RoC RegionalOrganisationofCouncils

uDIA UrbanDevelopmentInstituteofAustralia

WH&S WorkplaceHealthandSafety

Advisory Group Members (providedassistanceandinputtodevelopingthisGuide)

AndrewBarger,QueenslandResourcesCouncil

PaulBidwell,CommerceQueensland

CrRayByrnes,Mayor,EachamShireCouncil

AlisonCurtis,ToowoombaCityCouncil

PeterNapier,IpswichCityCouncil

StefaniePidcock,AustralianGreenhouseOffice

VanessaSwinson,BrisbaneCityCouncil

JoanneHamer,BrisbaneCityCouncil

EvanThomas,GoldCoastCityCouncil

PhilWoods,InsuranceAustraliaGroup

PaulWuth,BurdekinShireCouncil

AndrewZuch,QldClimateChangeCentreofExcellence

25EvelynStreet,Newstead

POBox2230,FortitudeValleyBCQ4006

Ph:(07)30002222

Fax:(07)32524473

Web:www.lgaq.asn.au

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