Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact
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Transcript of Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact
Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact
J. Rubiano1 S. Cook2, B. Douthwaite3, M.Rajasekaran2, V.Soto3
1 King’s College, University of London, [email protected] Basin Focal Project, CPWF
3 International Center for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT, Colombia.
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
This analysis shows where local projects have regional or global potential to change the lives of millions.
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Extrapolation domains for the PN15 Quesungual Project
EDA2nd International Forum on Food and
Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
What is this work useful for?
Assuming successful project interventions (technological/ institutional)
• To identify the potential for wide scale adoption (scaling out) and its impact while linked with Global (B&SEM)
• To link research with development (partnerships)
• Add value to individual PNs’ and the CPWF • Guide Investors (SDC, WB…etc…)
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Outline
• Overall concept• How the method works?
– A graphical example– An example from a CPWF project
• Where to next?– Assessment– Recomendations
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
What’s a right bed for my seeds?
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Pilot sites of 11 CPWF projects (nursery)
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
The extrapolation problem
Where else can we go with these
projects?
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
A knowledge common sense game2nd International Forum on Food and
Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
It is black
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
It is hairy
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Has more than 2 legs
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
It is not a pet
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Back to the CPWF
• How to realise about the potential of the CPWF projects?
• How to wisely use information?– End of phase 1, 40+ CPWF funded projects– Knowledge– Improving our ability to adapt
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Use evidence and knowledge to estimate the likelihood of an event
• Given an evidence…– Black (one in four) - Uncertain– Hairy (three in four) - Maybe– Has more than three legs (two in four) - Perhaps– It’s not a pet (one in one) - Certain
• The inference is a …
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
The extrapolation problem: Where else can we go with these projects?
• Knowledge– Tell us factors are important
• Data– About the original and target location– About the distribution of important factors
• A method– To link these two components
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
How would I know a particular place is a good site for a project?
• From the project sites we know that particular factors are important for the project (e.g):– Stony soils– Mid altitude ranges– Low to medium precipitation– Technical institutional support– Prevalence of poverty– Etc…
• From spatial analysis we also know how important these factors are for the project
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
How to weight the contribution of each factor?
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Pantropical world
Important factors
Research sites
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
1. Weights of EvidenceArea=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115
Factor Area = 22 Pilot sites in Factor Area = 8
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
2. Weights of EvidenceArea=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115
Conditional ProbabilitiesA. Factor and sites
B. Factor but no sites
C. No Factor but sites
D. No Factor no sites
W- = ln C/D
W+ = ln A/B
Factor Area = 22 Pilot sites in Factor Area = 8
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
4. Weights of Evidence
Test of Conditional Independence of the
evidential layers
Posterior Probability=0.14
Area=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115
Conditional ProbabilitiesA. Pattern and sites
B. Pattern but no sites
C. No pattern but sites
D. No pattern no sites
W- = ln C/D
W+ = ln A/B
Odds Post = ln (Odds Prior + ∑(W+ +W-)
Post Prob = Odds Post /(1+ Odds Post )
Evidential Pattern Area = 22 Pilot sites in Pattern = 8
P(SjF1F2) = [P(F2jS) P(F1jS) P(S) ] / [P(F2) P(F1)]
How would I know a particular place is a good site for a project?
• Summarizing up to here….– We use the contribution of each factor (positive
and negative weights)– Associate this information with the basic
knowledge of the site (prior probability of pilot sites)
– Calculate a value per each potential new site (posterior probability)
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
How to read results?
• Check for total conditional independence and uncertainty
• Organised results in maps for dialogue with project team members
• Iterate after adjustments• Review results to the light of complementary
information
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Quesungual seed sites
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
AVAILABLE
• Poverty (2 USD/day) (Thornton et al., 2002)• Climate (length of dry season) (Jones et al., 2005)• Slope (From SRTM data, Jarvis et al., 2006)• Water availability (Proximity to water sources,
from Lehner et al., 2004)• Access to markets (Nelson, 2006)• Land Cover (Tree cover from GLCF, 2008))
NOT AVAILABLE OR NON INDEPENDENT
• Erosion• Agriculture and Livestock productivity• Agricultural subsistence systems• Land Tenure• Soils Type (Shallow soils)Community and Institutional Participation/support
“Important” factors
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Location of prospecting sites for the PN15 Quesungual Project
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Population
Area
Thanks
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Summary of Feedback
Assessment
• Mixed response about the approach (you love it or hate it)
• Data availability is a key constraint but solvable• Local knowledge will improve its validity• EDA, in general, is a useful starting point for the
promotion of innovative techniques to new locations• A recognition that suitable sites are not the unique
guarantee for successful scaling out of interventions• Does not work for all type of projects
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Recommendations
• Incorporate it in future projects’ development– More dialog at the beginning of projects to ensure the
validation of variables to be used– Capture local knowledge– Use it as an aid for partnership search
• Dynamic elements should be introduced– To allow the generation of different EDAs under different
scenarios• A Country level EDA
– Use of higher resolution data– To target more specific locations for intervention
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Thanks
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
• There must be other ways of doing this, if better, use them, but please let me know I am always open to learn
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
Key References
• Bonham-Carter, GF, Agterberg, FP., Wright, DF. Weights of evidence modeling: a new approach to mapping mineral potential. In: Agternerg, FP, Bonham-Carter, GF, editors. Statistical Applications in the Earth Sciences. Canada: Geological Survey of Canada; 1989, 171-183.
• Bonham-Carter, GF. Geographic Information Systems for geoscientists: modelling with GIS, First ed. Ottawa, Canada: Pergamon; 1994
• Bonham-Carter, GF. Geographic information systems for geoscientist: Modelling with GIS. In: Merriam DF, editors. Computer Methods in the Geosciences. New York: Pergamon/Elsevier; 2002, 302-334.
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008
The Holidays dilemma
• Who knows where are you going on Christmas?– Paris?, The Caribbean?, London?, Home?
• From previous experience you reckon that you enjoy being at…– Historical places ?– A sandy beach ?– Warm temperature ?– Being with relatives ?
2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November
2008