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„Adaptation to the Consequences of Climate Change Process: progress achieved and capacity

building needed”REC Workshop

Budapest19-2 November, 2007

First steps towards adaptation strategy VAHAVA project

A Hungarian case studyProf. Zsolt Harnos

Corvinus University of Budapest

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Climate change presents a double challenge todayThe battle is fought on two fronts:

• the moderation of the (presumable) producing cause i.e. the reducing of emission of green house gases (mitigation)

• the protection against the effects of climate change i.e. preparation of adaptation strategy

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"We need to fight the battle against climate change on two fronts," Dimas said. "We must sharply reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to prevent future climate change from reaching dangerous levels, but at the same time Europe must also adapt to the climate change that is already happening."

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In the field of mitigation Hungary is in a relative advantageous situation. Emission Reduction Commitment of Hungary under Kyoto Protocol

Base year

(1985-1987)

Kyoto Protocol

target

2005 emission Change

base year – 2005

123.0 mt -6% 80.5 -34.5%

Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2005

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The climate change is inevitable in this century, independently on the global mitigation efforts. The question is its degree.

The adaptation has therefore become an unavoidable complement to the mitigation.It is not an alternative to reduce GHG emissions.

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• Water: Climate change will further reduce access to safe drinking water. Drought-affected areas are likely to increase.

• Ecosystems and biodiversity: Approximately 20 – 30 % of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 – 2.5°C.

• Food: Climate change is expected to increase the risk of famine; the additional number of people at risk could rise to several hundred millions.

• Health: Climate change will have direct and indirect impacts on human and animal health.

Over the last three decades climate change has already had a marked influence on many physical and biological systems worldwide:

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The climate change already happening, societies worldwide face the parallel challenge of having to adapt to its impacts as a certain degree of climate change is inevitable throughout this century and beyond, even if global mitigation efforts over the next decades prove successful.

Some examples:

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Flooding• Between 1975 and 2001m 238 flood events were recorded

in Europe. Over this period the annual number of flood events clearly increased.

• Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of extreme flood events in Europe

• The annual losses caused by flood increased significantly.

Note: Flood events include flash floods, river floods and storm surges in Europe (1976-2001)Source: VHO, 2003a

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2005 Duna river at Budapest

2003 lake Balaton

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Heat waves

Data-Source: IVS, WHO, …

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• Southern Europe and the entire Mediterranean Basin due to the combined effect of high temperature increases and reduced precipitation in areas already coping with water scarcity.

The most vulnerable areas in Europe are

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What we can expect in Hungary?Hungary situated in one of the most

vulnerable areas in Europe.• an increase in temperature (2-5 C) by 2100,• changes in precipitation patterns,• a likely increase in frequency of intense

precipitation events in Central Europe,• increased risk of drought in southern

Europe,• increase in extreme weather events.

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In Hungary harmful impacts and financial expenditure of hazard management due to unfavourable meteorological extremities range between 150-180 billion HUF(600-800 million EUR). This is almost 1% of the national GDP.

The loss of agriculture will probably be higher than the 1% of the GDP in 2007.

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The Hungarian scientists led by Prof István Láng had recognized the danger years ago and launched a research project regarding to the nature of climate change and its possible impacts on the Hungarian economy, society and environment.

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A research project was organized in 2003 titled VAHAVA Changing (VÁltozás) Impact (HAtás) Response (VÁlaszadás) supported by the Ministry of Environment and Water and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

The main scopes of the research programme is •adaptation and •response to climate change impacts.

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The main objective of the VAHAVA project can been summarised in two points:

• Preparation of the Hungarian society and economy for a probably warmer and drier future;

• Creation of a last responding technical, financial, organisational system, which is able to prevent, or handle the damaging effects of foreseen, or unexpected extreme weather events.

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VAHAVA is a multi-sectoral project covering almost all main fields of economic and social sectors; e.g. nature conservation, agriculture, energetics, environmental health etc.

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The basic hypothesis of the VAHAVA• warming becomes stronger in the Carpathian

Basin,• decrease of annual average precipitation,• increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme

weather events.

The recent tendencies prove this hypothesis.• 2007 is the warmest and driest year since the end

of XIXth century,• dry and warm winter• spring freeze,• long heat wave, record heat,• storms etc.

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The main characteristics of VAHAVA methodology:

• large scale system synthesis,

• interdisciplinary and multisectoral approach,

• broad spectrum partnership relations,

Over for hundred researchers and other experts participated in the implementation of the project.

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Conclusion and recommendations of VAHAVA

Instead of inactive waiting for thing to happen on must take actions for preparedness and prevention.

Urgent actions

International and national cooperation in all levels.

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In order to implement a sound climate-policy and for getting prepared to the changes of the climate there is a need for achieving consensus in the following three matters:

• Political consensus in the co-operation of the political forces of the Parliament;

• Professional consensus in the agreement of the experts of various fields in the most urgent tasks to be implemented.

• Social consensus, namely, the recognition of the fact that the timely preparedness to face the changes of the climate is a common interest of the entire population, both locally and nationally.

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The responses to impacts and the solutions can be achieved in sequential manner, taking the interdependencies of mitigation and adaptation also into consideration:

• Getting prepared (making the population prepared, in their soul and in their knowledge for self-organization and spontaneous action);

• Prevention of damages (provision of an inventory of possible and urgently needed preventive actions and their conditions);

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• Defence (assurance of rapid, professional and effective reaction to events that take place, mobilization of reserves, action of catastrophe-prevention forces);

• Remediation (provision for the rapid elimination of damages with special regard to those affecting the health of people and the infrastructures, establishment of relevant insurance systems, financial and other reserves and conditions).

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Upgrading of the national systems of natural hazard management and of insurance.

In the field of catastrophe prevention the protection and reconstruction of the infrastructure has a critical role.

The proposals deal with the necessary steps for the modernization of forecasting, logistic and technical facilities.

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The most highlighted recommendations for decision makers launched by VAHAVA”:

1. Establishment of national climate policy integrated to present social, economic and environmental policies (mitigation and adaptation).

2. Attempts for political decision: a National Strategy on Climate Change approved by the Parliament of Hungary.

3. Establishment of National Hazard Management Fund with both government and public participation integrating assurance activities.

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4. Education, extension and training issues that enable the population to prevent, or handle the damaging effects of foreseen, or unexpected extreme weather events.

5. Priorities in funding of scientific research and development regarding the field of climate change and meteorological phenomena.

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The project is engaged in the further reduction of greenhouse gases. Hungary has already been completed the requirement of Kyoto Protocol, however further efforts are needed for the future.

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VAHAVA was finished in 2006.

The Ministry of Environment and Water prepares the National Climate Change Strategy (NÉS). It includes mitigation and adaptation both.

It is going to be discussed by the Hungarian Parliament in 2008.

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The main results of the VAHAVA are summarised in

and the VAHAVA report

It will be published in English.

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Thank you for your attention!