Adaptation to Impacts of Climate Change

An Overview  

May 19, 2011

James L. Buizer

Science Policy Advisor to the President

Arizona State University

1.Global Warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced

- Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years.

- This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.

Key Findings

2. Climate Changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow

These include:- Increases in heavy downpours - Rising temperature - Rising sea level- Rapidly retreating glaciers- Thawing permafrost- Lengthening growing seasons- Lengthening ice-free seasons etc

Key Findings

Carbon Dioxide levels are higher than in 800,000 years; global average temperatures have been rising in tandem with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases

3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase

- Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health.

4. Climate Change will stress water resources- Drought is important in many regions, especially in the West.

- Floods and water quality problems - likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions.

- Declines in mountain snowpack in the West and Alaska - provides vital natural water storage.

Key Findings

5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged- Many crops show positive responses to elevated carbon dioxide and low levels

of warming. But higher levels of warming often negatively affect growth and yields.

- Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production.

6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise and storm surge • Increasing risk of erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, Pacific Islands, and parts of Alaska. • Energy and transportation infrastructure - very likely to be adversely affected.

Key Findings

7. Risks to human health will increase• Related to increasing heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. • Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts.

8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses• Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses

Key FindingsNumber of Days Over

100ºF

Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

9. Thresholds will be crossed leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems

These thresholds determine, for example: - the presence of sea ice and permafrost, - the survival of species, from fish to insect pests

Key Findings

10. Future climate and its impacts depends on choices made today

• The amount and rate of future climate change depend primarily on current and future human-caused emissions

• Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming, and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable.

Key Findings

Key Finding: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase

Sea Ice and PermafrostRisks and costs in Alaska increase as thawing of

permafrost damages roads, buildings, and forests,

and declining sea ice increases coastal erosion and

threatens the existence of some communities.

Coldwater Fish

Salmon, trout, and other coldwater fish will

face additional stresses as water

temperatures rise and summer streamflows

decline. Ecosystems and the tourism and

recreation they support will be adversely

affected.

Interacting Stresses

Population shifts and development choices are making more

Americans vulnerable to climate change impacts. An aging populace,

and continued population shifts to the Southeast, Southwest, and

coastal cities amplify risks associated with extreme heat, sea-level

rise, storm surge, and increasing water scarcity in some regions.

ForestsForest growth is generally projected to increase in much of the

East, but decrease in much of the West as water becomes

even scarcer. Major shifts in species are expected, such as

maple-beech-birch forests being replaced by oak-hickory in the

Northeast. Insect infestations and wildfires are projected to

increase as warming progresses.

10

Coastal Communities

Sea-level rise and storm surge will

increase threats to homes and

infrastructure including water, sewer,

transportation, and communication

systems. Many barrier islands and

coastal marshes that protect the

coastline and support healthy

ecosystems will be lost.

.

.

Agriculture

Increasing heat, pests, floods, weeds,

and water stress will present increasing

challenges for crop and livestock

production.

ecosystems will be lost.

.

.

Water Supply

Reduced summer runoff, increased winter runoff, and

increasing demands will compound current stresses on

water supplies and flood management, especially in the

West.

.

.

Energy Supply

Warming will decrease demand for

heating energy in winter and increase

demand for cooling energy in summer.

The latter will result in significant

increases in electricity use and peak

demand in most regions.

Key Finding: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase

11

Climate Change is Already Impacting Society

• Economy• Communities• Energy production/supply• Human health• Water availability• Food production• National security• Tribal cultures • Biodiversity• Ecosystem services that people depend on (e.g. clean water, coastal protection, food, recreation)

...and will challenge our missions and operations

Future Climate Change

The future depends largely on choices people make now

• Actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will help limit future warming and the need to adapt

• Even with emissions reductions, some degree of climate change will continue to occur into the future

• Adaptation and mitigation are interconnected

Future Climate Change

Throughout this century, climate change is projected to bring...

• Rising temperatures

• Increases in heavy downpours

• Rising sea level

• Rapidly retreating glaciers

• Thawing permafrost

• Lengthening growing seasons

• Lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers

• Earlier snowmelt

• Alterations of river flows

• Shifts in the timing of seasons

What is Adaptation…

And why does it matter?

NOAA

NASA –GSFCUSGCRP 2009

The Climate is Already Changing

Scientific consensus shows that the Earth’s climate is changing due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

• Global average temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations have risen substantially since 1880

• Most of the warming in the past 50 years has been over land and in the Northern Hemisphere

• Year-round average temperatures in the U.S. have already risen 2°F over the past 50 years

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.: Warming

“Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States.” - USGCRP 2009

• Warming has not been uniform across the world or the nation

• Agencies need to plan for varying conditions and impacts across regions and sectors

Extreme heat, CDC

“Drunken trees,” NSIDC

Projected Temperature Change (°F) from 1961-1979 BaselineTemperatures have

already risen in the US an average of 1.5 degrees F in the last 50 years and could rise 2 to 11 degrees in the next century….

Higher Emissions Scenario

Lower Emissions Scenario

Mid-Century (2041-2059 average) End of Century (2081-2099 av.)

Recent Change(1993-2007)

Near-Term Projected Change(2011-2029)

Climate Change Impacts Are Not Distributed Evenly

• Drought frequency has increased in the Southeast and much of the West

• Heavy precipitation has increased most in the Midwest and Northeast

For example…

Midwestern flooding, NRCS Western drought, CA Dept. of Water Resources

Vulnerability Is Not Distributed Evenly

• Social/economic factors Economic status, race, gender, age, ethnicity, and health • Environmental factors Pollution, over-harvesting, and habitat destruction

Vulnerability to climate change and the capacity to adapt vary widely

Wetlands, NOAA Healthy and Bleached Coral, NOAA

Elderly men, PublicDomainPictures.net

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.: Precipitation

• U.S. average annual precipitation has increased about 5% over the past 50 years, but the changes were not uniform

Iowa flooding, FEMA

Wetlands drought, USDA

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.: Extreme Events

• Heavy precipitation has increased in both frequency and intensity over the past 50 years

Rainstorm, NOAA

Winter storm, Texas, FEMA

Snowstorm, Northeast, NOAA

One definition:• Adaptation: Adjustment in human or natural

systems to a new or changing environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates negative effects (ACC Adapting)

IPCC 2007

Effectively Anticipating and Responding to a Changing Climate Requires…

A continuously evolving understanding of the integrated “climate-society system” to address today’s challenges and plan for the future

andAn adaptive management approach that provides for regular evaluation and adjustment of decisions as new scientific insights emerge and socio-economic conditions change

UKCIP 2003

Adaptation is Iterative Risk

Management…

U

A common sense approach:

Refuel vehicles after darkEncourage mass transportation use by offering free services on Air Quality Alert DaysEncourage residents to limit car travel, especially during daytimeConserve energyAvoid outdoor burning

Examples of Adaptation:

Improving Urban Air Quality

Adaptation: reframing the things we do every day

• Managers make decisions with imperfect information all the time – why is climate change different?

• Adaptive management – deliberate learning by doing• Co-benefits – justify action by addressing other

priorities• Small institutional and legal changes can make a big

difference, eg eliminating conflicting mandates• Potential for partnerships and economic opportunity• An excuse to do the things that make sense anyway,

integrated planning, changes to the National Flood Insurance program, etc.

Reframing: Expand the solution set to includenew technologies and practices

Expand portfolio of technology solutions:• desalination, • reuse and recharge of municipal wastewater,• rainwater harvesting,• improved management of floodflows,• integration/redundancy of delivery systems for reliability

Reframing: Mainstreaming adaptation into every day decisions

• US Infrastructure is aging and needs replacement. Re-evaluate engineering assumptions re: potential for more extreme events and longer-term droughts

Non-stationarity: the past is no longer an analogue for the future

Adaptation

• The magnitude and rate of future change depends on whether we act to limit emissions, and how the earth system reacts to the resulting emissions trajectory

• Should we act proactively in anticipation of change and mobilize to reduce the effects, or simply prepare to react as the impacts arrive?

Adaptation• Adaptation is not a choice – our choice is

whether to adapt proactively or respond to the consequences.

• We have always adapted to variability – but now the trends are moving outside of human experience and we need to be prepared.

• Adaptation requires a paradigm shift, focusing on managing risks. We know the trends, but not the magnitude.

And coming soon – the report to the President from the Adaptation Task Force

Vision

• A resilient, healthy, and prosperous Nation in the face of a changing climate

• Universities achieving their missions and policy and program goals in a changing climate

• Wise investment of resources and effective provision of Federal services

Adaptation planning and implementation will help ensure…

What is Climate Change Adaptation?

Adaptation

• Limits climate change risks & damages

• Maximizes benefits & opportunities

• Reduces long-term costs

• Improves the overall resilience of our organizations

Adjusting to a changing climate to reduce negative effects and take advantage of new opportunities

Why Adaptation is Important for Colleges & Universities

Anticipation and planning for risk are responsible, forward-looking management practices

Planning ahead will help Colleges and Universitiesoperate, achieve their missions, and provide services while reducing long-term costs

Why Adaptation is Important for Federal Agencies

Climate change directly affects communities and a wide range of Federal services, operations, programs, and assets

• Agencies that work outdoors: extreme heat, cold, and storms

• Health agencies: extreme heat, air pollution, and shifting disease vectors

• Public land managers: drought, flooding, and wildfire

• Agricultural and wildlife agencies: shifting ranges of species and pests

• Social service providers: multiple stressors on vulnerable populations