ADAPTATION OPTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN AFRICA.

Jonathan I. Matondo

UNIVERSITY OF SWAZILAND

LAYOUT OF THE PRESENTATION

• Introduction

• Current status of climate change and variability

• Impact of climate change and variability on– water resources in Africa– Social, economic and environmental

consequences

LAYOUT OF THE PRESENTATION CONT..

• Adaptation options– Short-term adaptation options – Long term adaptation options – The need for regional cooperation

• Water policy proposal for Africa

INTRODUCTION• Climate will always change due to natural

forcing of eccentricity

• The natural green house gases have kept the earth’s atmosphere some 30o Celsius hotter, than it would otherwise be, making it possible for humans and other living things to exist on earth.

• The global green house gas emissions due to anthropogenic activities have increased since pre-industrial times

INTRODUCTION CONT..

• Temperature across Africa are expected to increase ranging from 0.2oC per decade (low scenario) to more than 0.5oC per decade (high scenario)

• This warming is greatest over the interior of semi-arid margins of the Sahara, central and southern Africa.

CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY

• Mean annual rainfall has decreased by 20–49% in the Sahel between the periods 1931–1960 and 1968–1997

• generally a mean annual rainfall decrease ranging from 5–10% across the rest of the continent has been reported.

• Africa has experienced at least one major episode in each decade in the past 30 years.

• In Eastern Africa there were serious droughts in 1973-74, 1984-85, 1987, 1992-94, 1999-2000, 2003 and 2005.

CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY CONT..

• The last drought in the Sahelian persisted for decades, from 1972-73 to 1983-84. It caused major damage to the environment and loss to human life.

• In Southern Africa, sever droughts as recorded in 1967 – 73, 1981-83, 1986/87, 1991/92, 1993/94, 2001/02, 2003 and 2005/06).

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Niger;Change ?Rapid/gradualPersisted

Blue Nile;GradualDecadel variability

Lake Victoria;RapidSlow return ?

CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY CONT..

• West Africa has also experienced droughts in the 1980s and 1990s, and 2000s

• The continent has also experienced severe floods.– The floods of 1999-2000 in Nigeria, South

Africa and Mozambique– The floods of 2003 and 2006 in East Africa– The floods of 2008 in Southern Africa

: Gradual disappearance of Mt. Kilimanjaro glaciers

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES

• GCMs simulations predict– A 10 to 20 per cent drop in rainfall in Northwestern

and Southern Africa by 2070 – River water levels are expected to drop below 50 per

cent.

– Table 2 shows precipitation and runoff changes due to climate change.

• 230 million of Africa’s population will be facing water scarcity by 2025

• 460 million people in water stressed Countries

Table 2: Estimates of range of changes (in percent) in precipitation, potential evaporation, and runoff in African rivers (IPCC, 2001; Matondo et al. 2004; IPCC, 2007)Basin name Change in

precipitation (%) Change in potential evaporation (%)

Change in runoff (%)

Nile 10 10 0 Niger 10 10 10 Volta 0 4 to -5 0 to -15 Schebeli -5 to 18 10 to 15 -10 to 40 Congo 10 10 to 18 10 to 15 Ogooue -2 to 20 10 -20 to 25 Rufiji -10 to 10 20 -10 to 20 Zambezi -10 to -20 10 to 25 -30 to -40 Limpopo -5 to -15 5 to 20 -25 to –35 Orange -5 to 5 4 to 10 -10 to 10 Pangani -6 to -9 Ruvu -10 Rivers in Swaziland 10 -5 to 5

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND THE ENVIRONMENT

• Reduced precipitation is expected to cause a decline in agricultural production thus food insecurity.

• Globally, 80-120 million people are at risk of hunger; 70 to 80 per cent of these are expected to be in Africa, by 2080.

• Most rivers in Africa are International. The reduction in the river flows is potential for conflict.

• Due to expected sea level rise– It is estimated that 70 million people will be at risk

from coastal flooding by 2080 – large cities such as Banjul, Lagos, Alexandria,

Dar es Salaam, Cape Town, Maputo etc. could be in a verge of being submerged

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND THE ENVIRONMENT CONT..

– Areas considered now dry humid, semi-arid and arid will become semi-arid, arid and desert respectively under expected climate change.

– People in drought prone areas of southern Africa to abandon agriculture permanently in the next 50 years.

– The frequency of extreme events (droughts and Floods) are expected to increase

• This will increase the damage to infrastructures, the environment and loss to human life.

• This will also increase the financial burden to most African governments.

SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES CONT..

FLOODING IN WESTERN KENYA

ADAPTATION OPTIONS

• Short-term adaptation options– Efficient use of existing water resources – Recycling of wastewater– Rainwater harvesting– Use of groundwater– Implementation of IWRM

• Long-term adaptation options– Construction of storage and inter-basin water

transfers– Building desalination plants

EFFICIENT WATER USE (MBULUZI CATCHMENT SWAZILAND)

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Months

Dis

char

ge (m

m/d

ay)

OBSERVED UKTR-HighN UKTR-HighE

RAIN WATER HARVESTING

I

Sand Dam filled with water in Muthetheni, Machakos district Kenya

RAINWATER HARVESTING CONT..

• Sand dam in Kenya

RAINWATER HARVESTING CONT…

ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONT..

• Need for cooperation– Africa has 61 international river basins shared

by two or more countries. • Therefore, there is a great need of cooperation

among riparian states in order to ensure that the available resources are used beneficially and equitably.

• The planning, development and management of shared water courses requires the development of water sharing agreements/treaties.

• The implementation of IWRM requires the formation of river basin institutions and agreements.

ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONT..

• Need for cooperation– Examples

• ) SADC Protocol on shared water courses• Senegal River agreement between Mali,

Mauritania and Senegal• Nile river basin initiative• Komati river (South Africa, Swaziland and

Mozambique

ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONT..

• Need for cooperation cont..– The benefits of Regional cooperation are:

• Cooperation can enable better environmental management, providing benefits to the river, and underpinning all other benefits that can be derived.

• Cooperation can yield major benefits from the river including increased irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation

• Cooperation will result in economic benefits associated with reduced tension among riparian states.

• Watershed management and water storage in the major river basins in Africa (Congo, Niger, Nile, Zambezi etc.) would generate hydropower, flood control and irrigation benefits.

ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONT..

• Need for cooperation cont..– International rivers can be catalyst agents, with

cooperation that would yield benefits from the river and reduce costs because of the river, paving the way to much greater interaction between states, such as the movement of labor, goods and services and thus yielding benefits beyond the river.

– The potential benefits of closer integration in water planning, development and management are strongly related to creating opportunities for improving the prospects for growth and prosperity in all the regions in Africa.

ADAPTATION OPTIONS CONT..

• Need for cooperation cont..– Regional cooperation in energy and water could have

huge gains for regions in Africa by providing improved energy supply for economic growth.

– Cross-border management of water resources and data and information exchange could help control flooding across riparian states and improve the water availability.

PROPOSED WATER POLICY

– International water resources shall be shared in accordance to the Dublin-Rio principles.

– Establishment and/or strengthen existing river basin institutions national/international should be considered as a pre-requisite for the implementation of IWRM.

– Climate change adaptation options to be mainstreamed in national development action plans

– Integrated Flood Management (IFM) should be applied in flood prone areas (restrictions to be limited to structural development only).

PROPOSED WATER POLICY CONT..

– The environment is a legitimate user of water. Therefore water allocation shall insure that a minimum reserve is allowed for the protection of the environment (inflow water requirement).

– Water resources development shall at all times ensure environmental protection in compliance with ratified international laws/conventions and standards.

PROPOSED WATER POLICY CONT..

– Gender mainstreaming in the management of water resources shall be encouraged in line with the Dublin-Rio principles.

– Exchange of experiences including best practices on farming should be promoted to ensure that watersheds are not degraded.

– Encourage rainwater harvesting techniques – Strengthen National and Regional capacities for

information gathering and monitoring. – Strengthen regional cooperation and encourage

exchange of data and information

AFRICA IS ENDORWED WITH RENEWABLE RESOURCES SUCH AS..

– Water resources– Solar energy– Wind energy

• WHAT IS REQUIRED IS THE INFRASTRUCTURE(S) TO HARNESS THE ABOVE RESOURCES

• THANK YOU

• AHSANTE SANA

• SIYABONGA KAKHULU