Adaptation of forest operations to a changing climate

Dr. Georgios Xenakis and Duncan Ray

Ecology Division Forest Research, Northern Research Station,

RoslinMidlothian EH25 9SY, UK

Email: georgios.xenakis@forestry.gsi.gov.uk

5th November 2008 Silver Springs Hote, Cork

Mitigating climate change: The challenges and opportunities for Forestry in Ireland

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What is climate change

‘Climate change’ refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be

identified (e.g., using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the

variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically

decades or longer. Climate change may be due to internal processes and/or

external forcings. Some external influences, such as changes in solar radiation and

volcanism, occur naturally and contribute to the total natural variability of the

climate system. Other external changes, such as the change in composition of the

atmosphere that began with the industrial revolution, are the result of human

activity.

IPCC 4th assessment report: WG1 Report “The physical science basis” Chapter 9 pp.667

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Adapting to climate change

Urgent need to provide

knowledge and guidance to

continue to sustainably

manage and maintain

resilient forests and

woodlands well adapted to

climate change

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Atmospheric CO2 and temperature: love or hate relationship

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CO2 concentrations: the last millenium

Source - Ernst (2007) Woods Hole

Projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations for a range of global population and economic growth scenarios

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IPCC emissions scenarios

Source SRES (2000) IPCC Special Report, WMO/UN

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1961 - 19902000 - 20502050 - 2080

Mar–Oct increase of 200-300 day.degrees (15%) across Ireland by 2080

Accumulated temperature

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1960 -19902050 - 2080

Moisture Deficit

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What do we expect for the future?

Warmer climate

Winter

• Milder winters

• Dormancy, autumn frost, pests and diseases

Summer

• Warmer & longer growing season

• Increased growth (water & nutrients not limiting)

• Better quality broadleaved species

• Increased flowering and seed production

Wetter winter and drier summers

Winter• Shallow and restricted rooting• Increased risk of wind

disturbance• Soil damage – winter operations

Summer• Increased risk of summer

drought stress• Drought restricted growth

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How to adapt forest management?

• Which species will grow?

• Where should they come

from?

• What type of silviculture?

• Where do we get all these

information?

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CLIMADAPT project:

• within the CLIM-IT

programme of research

• Funded by COFORD’s

2007-2013 forest

research programme

Objective:

Develop a decision

support methodology,

similar to ESC, using

soil and climatic

information for Ireland

that can be used to

assess changes in

species suitability and

yield resulting from

different climate

scenarios

The CLIMADAPT project

Ecological Site Classification

INPUTS

Soil typerooting depth, stones, texture

Lithology & soil type

Humus form

Indicator plants, %cover

Grid Reference

Elevation

ECOLOGICALSITE

CLASSIFICATION

SITE TYPE

Accumulated temperature

Moisture deficit

Windiness

Continentality

Soil Moisture Regime

Soil Nutrient Regime

ESC FACTORS

Tree species suitability

ESC yield prediction

Native woodland suitability

OUTPUTS

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Catchment

National

Landscape

Regional

Stand

Species suitable at multiple scales

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CLIMADAPT methodology

Methodology

• Climate

• Global

circulation model

for present and

future

• AT, MD, DAMS

• Delphi process June

2007

• Species

suitability

threshold

• Soil grid

• Develop suitability

curves

• Validate against

data (when available,

e.g., Sitka spruce)

• Build Graphic User

Interface (GUI) and

related technology

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Source: Broadmeadow et al. 2005, Forestry 78(2)

Provenances - Climate matching

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Insects and pathogens

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Wind storms

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Annual weather & extreme events

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N-S transect

North

South

Frequency

(years per decade)

No data

North

South

Frequency of high MD (>=200mm) for A2

Actual Predicted

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W-E transect

East

West

Drought frequency

(years per decade)

No data

Actual Predicted

Frequency of high MD (>=200mm) for A2

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Climate

• Warmer climate • Increased growth (>1 YC)

• Faster growth of pests

• Wetter in winter – drier in summer • Increased winter water logging – shallower roots

• Reduced tree stability

Species choice and where

• Droughty soils unsuitable for spruce

• More Douglas fir in S & E – more drought tolerant

• More pedunculate oak less ash, beech

• S & E more favourable for quality broadleaves

• Colonisation of ‘non-native’ trees

• Climate change tolerant species – Monterey pine, southern beech (rauli and roble)

• Climate tolerant provenances from NW France

Silviculture

• Continuous Cover Forestry (CCF) – LISS

• Mixed species stands

• Mixed structure & age class stands

Risk management

• Increased windthrow

• Invertebrate pests – e.g. green spruce aphid, bark beetles

Strategic planning

• DSS & Knowledge management – strategic and operational planning with CLIMADAPT

Adaptation recommendations