Adaptation in water and coastal areas in Puglia, Italy

Pilot StudyTHEMATIC CENTRE ● Drought , Water and Coasts

Three pilot studies werecarried out under theOrientGate Thematic Centreon Drought, Water andCoasts: on climate changeadaptation in the new waterregime in Puglia Region,Italy (Pilot Study 3); on theeffects of climate changeon the wetland ecosystemsof Attica Region, Greece(Pilot Study 4); and on waterresources and the use ofhydroelectricity in theAutonomous Province ofTrento, Italy (Pilot Study 5).

Setting the scenePuglia Region’s geographicalposition and geomorphologicalfeatures favour exposure to thehydro-climatic hazards linkedto rising temperatures anddecreasing precipitation. Thisincreases the region’svulnerability when combinedwith other climate-relatedhazards, such as floods, firesand groundwater depletion.

Puglia has been greatly affectedby recent droughts. Agriculture isat particular risk, as irrigationcompetes with water demandfor domestic supply andindustrial processes. Puglia hasto import water, andgroundwater exploitation hasbecome a serious concern.Coastal zones, strategic to manysocioeconomic sectors, arehighly vulnerable to changes insea level, erosion and saltwaterintrusion into aquifers.

Expected vulnerabilitiesClimate model projections suggest warmer and drier conditions forPuglia over the next few decades, which would have big negativeimpacts on the social, economic and environmental sectors. Suchimpacts could become even more severe if the recent trend towardsthe increasing duration and frequency of heat waves and other water-related extremes are taken into consideration.

Grapes, olives and cereals, which are Puglia’s most importantagricultural products, may be threatened by the drier and hotterconditions, by erosion and the degradation of soil fertility, or by cropexposure to invasive pests.

Increasing economic activities in coastal areas makes them vulnerableto high-impact, low-frequency atmospheric-marine events such asstorm surges. Coasts are seriously affected by erosion and vulnerable torises in sea level and the subsequent intrusion of seawater into aquifers.

Given the region’s vulnerabilities, it is important to develop cross-sectoral approaches and methodologies that can be smoothlyintegrated into policy-making processes. Puglia’s regional government isalready taking a keen interest in mainstreaming climate-basedinformation into policy planning.

Shared visions Pilot Study 3 contributes to mainstreaming climate adaptation into planningby focusing on vulnerability and risk assessment. The results will promote thecommunication of climate trends, impacts, vulnerabilities and risks, andtheir consideration by decision makers. A balanced bottom-up (based ondialogue with stakeholders) and top-down (based on indicators) approachwas used to identify the most useful indicators. This contributed to theselection of specific adaptation issues, priorities and management goalsrelevant to the final definition of strategic action plans.

Projected increase in potential soil moisture deficit in Puglia, 2041–2071, under the worst scenario

The study first identified the existing level of stakeholder awareness ofclimate change impacts; capacities to address those impacts; andthe extent to which climate change is taken into consideration indecision making. Stakeholder involvement facilitated theidentification of priority adaptation areas in terms of sectors, systemsand resources, and confirmed the need for quantitative indicatorsand the concise communication of climate change challenges.

Analysing risksThe core of Pilot Study 3 was an assessment of risks to water resourcesand coastal zones under climate modifications, including extremes,by means of modelling and spatial analysis based on climatechange scenarios. Two future periods in the medium (2021–2050)and long (2041–2070) term under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissionscenarios were compared to a baseline period (1976–2005).

The risk analysis explored the interactions between water supplyand meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought. Thesimultaneous or sequential occurrence of these types of droughtleads to socioeconomic drought — an imbalance betweendemand and supply.

The combination of projected higher temperatures and reducedprecipitation will increase the potential soil water deficit, which willneed to be compensated by sustainable water use and moreefficient agronomic practices. The new climate regime will also leadto a progressive reduction in water availability from surface sources.

In coastal areas, simulations of sea level rise were used incombination with topographic, geomorphological, coastal,infrastructure and land-use layers in order to investigate the risksarising from the loss of highly productive land or land important fortourism, industry, agriculture or transport, and the resulting loss ofeconomic revenues. Risk mapping identified wetlands andprotected areas as at higher risk and revealed the percentages ofthe surface that may be submerged by a rise in sea level.

Putting results into practice In Puglia, water shortages, water imports from nearby regions and theoverexploitation of aquifers are strongly interconnected.

• Stakeholders should exploit the recent findings to encouragepolicy makers to take into consideration the risk of increasinglyfrequent, intense and prolonged droughts that might reduce thereliability of water supply from dams and deplete the water table,favouring saline intrusion into coastal aquifers. This requiresimproving the efficiency of water distribution and use to preventwater leaks and losses, and the better regulated use of aquifers.

• To enhance water use efficiency and maintain existing crop yieldsunder climate change, which is expected to lead to a significantdeficit in soil moisture, it is important to promote the knowledgeand use of efficient irrigation methods and techniques to improvesoil fertility and water-holding capacity that involve minimummechanical soil disturbance. This can be done through ruraldevelopment programmes or other regional/local fundingschemes. More rapid heat accumulation may favour crops thatare better adapted to newer climate conditions. In this context,research about potential new cultivars and their correctmanagement, as well as the demonstration of more efficientfarming practices, should also be promoted.

• Hazard and risk maps produced for the coastal area of Puglia canbe used as a screening tool to assess critical vulnerabilitiesassociated with the rise in sea level. The maps can supportdecision making and coastal management and can be used tomainstream climate adaptation in the definition of regional plans,policies and programmes.

• Regional policy makers must take into consideration these cross-cutting themes and sectors and should invest in raising awarenessof hazard occurrence; the vulnerability of society, economicsectors, ecosystem services and the environment; the provision oftechnical information; and the establishment of monitoringprogrammes and networks.

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ContactsLead partner, project coordinatorAntonio Navarra Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change(CMCC) l Via Augusto Imperatore 16 l 73100 Lecce, Italy l Email: antonio.navarra@cmcc.it l

www.cmcc.it

Giulia GalluccioEuro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change(CMCC) lEmail: giulia.galluccio@cmcc.it l

www.cmcc.it

www.orientgateproject.org

Pilot Study 1: Adapted forest management at LTER Zöbelboden, Austria

Pilot Study 2: Climatechange adaptation measures in Romanianagriculture

Pilot Study 3: Climatechange adaptation in the new water regime in Puglia region, Italy

Pilot Study 4: Effects of climate change on thewetland ecosystems of Attica region, Greece

Pilot Study 5: Water resources and the use of hydroelectricity, Italy

Pilot Study 6: Vulnerabilityassessment in Budapestand Veszprém, Hungary

Thematic centre leader and pilot study 3 coordinatorMonia SantiniEuro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change lEmail: monia.santini@cmcc.it

Antonio TrabuccoEuro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change lEmail: antonio.trabucco@cmcc.it l

www.cmcc.it