ADAPTATION BY CANADIAN AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATIC CHANGE: STATUS AND NEEDS

Prepared for: Senate of Canada, Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry

Prepared by: Mike BrklacichDept. of Geography & Environmental StudiesGlobal Environmental Change & Human Security ProjectCarleton University, Ottawa, Ontario

Date: 20 March 2003

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

Climatic Change Research Portfolio Need to Enhance Adaptation Perspectives Adaptation Potential of Canadian

Agriculture: What Do We Know? Improving Our Understanding About &

Potential for Adaptation to Climatic Change by Canadian Agriculture

THE CLIMATIC CHANGE RESEARCH PORTFOLIO

Science of Climatic Change Impacts and Mitigation Adaptation

NEED FOR ENHANCING ADAPTATION PERSPECTIVES

Climatic PerspectivesCommitted to Long-term Climatic ChangeLimitations of Mitigation MeasuresCarbon-based Fuels & Economic Development

NEED FOR ENHANCING ADAPTATION PERSPECTIVES (Cont’d)

Agricultural PerspectivesKey Economic SectorSector Under Extreme StressNeed to Reduce Adaptation Pathway Shocks

Addressing societal concerns regarding climatic change will require a blend of

adaptation & mitigation strategies!

AGRICULTUTRAL ADAPTATION TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

Three Approaches for Assessing AdaptationLearning From the PastModelling Technical Feasibility & EfficiencySetting Climatic Change Within the Broader

Agricultural Context

I: LEARNING FROM THE PAST

Major Adaptation CategoriesTechnological Developments

Crop development, information systems, resource management innovations

Public ProgramsAgricultural subsidy & support, resource management programs

(Sources: Brklacich et al. 1997; Smit & Skinner, 2002)

LEARNING FROM THE PAST (cont’d)

Production PracticesFarm practices, land use, irrigation

Financial ManagementCrop insurance, income stabilization, diversify income sources

ATTRIBUTES OF “LEARNING FROM THE PAST”

Comprehensive Credibility in Agricultural Community Multiple Stressors Considered Illustrates Adaptation Part of Agriculture Considers Climate Variability Not Change

II: MODELLING TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY & EFFICIENCY

Crop & Farm Modelling of Selected Adaptation Options

Coverage to Date:Peace River, Prairies, Central CanadaMajor Cereals FocusSelected Options (earlier seeding, irrigation,

winter cereals,alternative cultivars)

Sources: Brklacich et al 1997, NRCan, 2002.

MODELLING TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY & EFFICIENCY (cont’d)

Preliminary ResultsPrairies & Peace RiverLonger season cultivars reduce wheat yield impacts.

Winter wheat opportunities expand in southern prairies.Irrigation to offset moisture stress.

Central CanadaNew field crop opportunities in northern areas.

Fruit & vegetable prospects enhanced in southern areas.Irrigation to offset moisture stress.

ATTRIBUTES OF “MODELLING FEASIBILITY & EFFICIENCY”

Multiple Climatic Change Scenarios & Adaptation Options Considered

Applicable to Broad Areas Replicable Studies Spot Checks of Selected Regions & Crops Practicality & Acceptability Untested

III: CLIMATIC CHANGE IN A BROADER CONTEXT

Situated Research Multiple Stressors Coverage to Date

Farm-level StudiesSpot Checks in Prairies, Ontario & Quebec

Sources: Various studies fromU of Lethbridge, U of Guelph,Carleton U, & U of Montreal

CLIMATIC CHANGE IN A BROADER CONTEXT (cont’d)

Preliminary FindingsComplex Adaptation ProcessesDifferential VulnerabilitiesAdaptive Capacity as a System PropertyAdaptation Strategies to Multiple StressorsClimate Extremes vs Norms

ATTRIBUTES OF “BROADER CONTEXT”

Climatic Change Set Within Multiple Stressors

Differential Vulnerabilities Key Comprehensive Adaptation Strategies Limited Coverage to Date

Farm-level Adaptation FocusSpot Checks vs Systematic Assessments

IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

Recognize Adaptation as Equal Partner in Portfolio of Climatic Change Studies

Enhance & Stabilize Adaptation FundingStrategic Grants, Agency Grants

Encourage “Plough to Plate” StudiesLinkages within/to Agricultural Sector

Develop Comprehensive, Standardized Agricultural Adaptation – Climatic Change Program

Country-wide Comparative Assessments

IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATIC CHANGE (cont’d)

Improve Understanding of Differential Vulnerabilities

Conceptual Developments, Measurement Promote Situated Adaptation Studies

Contextualize Adaptation, Threshold Triggers, Institutional Fit & Roles

Establish Overall Goal: Adaptation as Means to Reduce Agricultural Sector Vulnerability and Improve Resilience to Climatic Variability & Change