ADAPTATION BY CANADIAN AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATIC CHANGE: STATUS AND NEEDS Prepared for: Senate of...
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Transcript of ADAPTATION BY CANADIAN AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATIC CHANGE: STATUS AND NEEDS Prepared for: Senate of...
ADAPTATION BY CANADIAN AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATIC CHANGE: STATUS AND NEEDS
Prepared for: Senate of Canada, Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry
Prepared by: Mike BrklacichDept. of Geography & Environmental StudiesGlobal Environmental Change & Human Security ProjectCarleton University, Ottawa, Ontario
Date: 20 March 2003
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Climatic Change Research Portfolio Need to Enhance Adaptation Perspectives Adaptation Potential of Canadian
Agriculture: What Do We Know? Improving Our Understanding About &
Potential for Adaptation to Climatic Change by Canadian Agriculture
THE CLIMATIC CHANGE RESEARCH PORTFOLIO
Science of Climatic Change Impacts and Mitigation Adaptation
NEED FOR ENHANCING ADAPTATION PERSPECTIVES
Climatic PerspectivesCommitted to Long-term Climatic ChangeLimitations of Mitigation MeasuresCarbon-based Fuels & Economic Development
NEED FOR ENHANCING ADAPTATION PERSPECTIVES (Cont’d)
Agricultural PerspectivesKey Economic SectorSector Under Extreme StressNeed to Reduce Adaptation Pathway Shocks
Addressing societal concerns regarding climatic change will require a blend of
adaptation & mitigation strategies!
AGRICULTUTRAL ADAPTATION TO CLIMATIC CHANGE
Three Approaches for Assessing AdaptationLearning From the PastModelling Technical Feasibility & EfficiencySetting Climatic Change Within the Broader
Agricultural Context
I: LEARNING FROM THE PAST
Major Adaptation CategoriesTechnological Developments
Crop development, information systems, resource management innovations
Public ProgramsAgricultural subsidy & support, resource management programs
(Sources: Brklacich et al. 1997; Smit & Skinner, 2002)
LEARNING FROM THE PAST (cont’d)
Production PracticesFarm practices, land use, irrigation
Financial ManagementCrop insurance, income stabilization, diversify income sources
ATTRIBUTES OF “LEARNING FROM THE PAST”
Comprehensive Credibility in Agricultural Community Multiple Stressors Considered Illustrates Adaptation Part of Agriculture Considers Climate Variability Not Change
II: MODELLING TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY & EFFICIENCY
Crop & Farm Modelling of Selected Adaptation Options
Coverage to Date:Peace River, Prairies, Central CanadaMajor Cereals FocusSelected Options (earlier seeding, irrigation,
winter cereals,alternative cultivars)
Sources: Brklacich et al 1997, NRCan, 2002.
MODELLING TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY & EFFICIENCY (cont’d)
Preliminary ResultsPrairies & Peace RiverLonger season cultivars reduce wheat yield impacts.
Winter wheat opportunities expand in southern prairies.Irrigation to offset moisture stress.
Central CanadaNew field crop opportunities in northern areas.
Fruit & vegetable prospects enhanced in southern areas.Irrigation to offset moisture stress.
ATTRIBUTES OF “MODELLING FEASIBILITY & EFFICIENCY”
Multiple Climatic Change Scenarios & Adaptation Options Considered
Applicable to Broad Areas Replicable Studies Spot Checks of Selected Regions & Crops Practicality & Acceptability Untested
III: CLIMATIC CHANGE IN A BROADER CONTEXT
Situated Research Multiple Stressors Coverage to Date
Farm-level StudiesSpot Checks in Prairies, Ontario & Quebec
Sources: Various studies fromU of Lethbridge, U of Guelph,Carleton U, & U of Montreal
CLIMATIC CHANGE IN A BROADER CONTEXT (cont’d)
Preliminary FindingsComplex Adaptation ProcessesDifferential VulnerabilitiesAdaptive Capacity as a System PropertyAdaptation Strategies to Multiple StressorsClimate Extremes vs Norms
ATTRIBUTES OF “BROADER CONTEXT”
Climatic Change Set Within Multiple Stressors
Differential Vulnerabilities Key Comprehensive Adaptation Strategies Limited Coverage to Date
Farm-level Adaptation FocusSpot Checks vs Systematic Assessments
IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATIC CHANGE
Recognize Adaptation as Equal Partner in Portfolio of Climatic Change Studies
Enhance & Stabilize Adaptation FundingStrategic Grants, Agency Grants
Encourage “Plough to Plate” StudiesLinkages within/to Agricultural Sector
Develop Comprehensive, Standardized Agricultural Adaptation – Climatic Change Program
Country-wide Comparative Assessments
IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATIC CHANGE (cont’d)
Improve Understanding of Differential Vulnerabilities
Conceptual Developments, Measurement Promote Situated Adaptation Studies
Contextualize Adaptation, Threshold Triggers, Institutional Fit & Roles
Establish Overall Goal: Adaptation as Means to Reduce Agricultural Sector Vulnerability and Improve Resilience to Climatic Variability & Change