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Adam Smith 4 th Annual Ukrainian Investment Summit London, UK March 11, 2008.
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Transcript of Adam Smith 4 th Annual Ukrainian Investment Summit London, UK March 11, 2008.
Adam Smith 4th Annual Ukrainian Investment Summit
London, UKMarch 11, 2008
HC INVESTMENTS
• Horizon Capital is the leading private equity fund manager in Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus, managing three funds:
• EEGF II – $300 million target• EEGF I – $132 million • WNISEF – $150 million
• Over 13 years of investment experience in the region
• Entrepreneurial team of professionals with long common track record
• Superior network of relationships creates pipeline and due diligence value
In 2008, Horizon Capital launched Emerging Europe Growth Fund II (EEGF II) with a target of $300 million.
EEGF II will focus on mid-cap companies in fast growing sectors of Ukraine and the region. Investment size is expected to range from $15-30 million per deal.
HORIZON CAPITAL GEOGRAPHIC FOCUS
UKRAINE FDI
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mln
. $
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mln
. $
Leading private equity firm in the Region
BELARUS RUSSIA
UKRAINE
MOLDOVA
’03-’08 CAGR=32%
’03-’08 CAGR=18%
’03-’08 CAGR=22%
’03-’08 CAGR=24%
’03-’08 CAGR=12%
(base year = 2003)Source: Euromonitor Statistics/ Country Fact sheet
2003 2004 2005 2006e 2007f 2008f
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
0
1,000
Ukraine
Moldova
Belarus
Russia
Poland
Per Capita Disposable Income, $
Year 2006Year 2000
Source: IMF, Balance of Payments database (except for Russia) World Investment Report, UNCTAD (for Russia only) EBRD country statistics
Belarus Moldova Ukraine Russia Poland
2,000
1,500
1,000
0
500
Per Capita Cumulative Direct Investment, $
112253
88
306
50
435
94
601722
2,088
15% CAGR 23% CAGR43% CAGR
36% CAGR
19% CAGR
GDP Growth Comparison 2000-2006
GDP (PPP)CAGR ’00-’06
Ukraine Moldova Belarus Russia Poland
15%
5%
10%
0%
10% 9%
6%
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2007
9% 11%
Consumer Bank Loans, $ per capita
Ukraine=97%
Russia=121%
Poland=79%
China*=28%
India=33%
CAGR 02-06:
* Note: CAGR for China is 2002-2005
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: National Bank of Ukraine, Central Bank of Russia, National Bank of Poland, The People’s Bank of China, Reserve Bank of India
September 2007
4.060%60013Forum BankCommerzbank
June 20073.995%22005UkrsotsbankUnicredito
February 20075.4100%685 19TAS BankSwedbank
June 20066.146%31.5141IMB GroupPrivate Placement
June 20075.538%10093IMB GroupPrivate Placement
October 20054.294%10282Aval BankRaiffeisen Bank
December 2005
3.851%3493UkrsibbankBNP Paribas
March 20067.198%257 21IndexbankCredit Agricole
April 20065.619%47 28Rodovid BankPrivate Placement
DatePrice/BV Multiple
StakeValue,
$ MRank by Assets
TargetBuyer
September 2007
4.060%60013Forum BankCommerzbank
June 20073.995%22005UkrsotsbankUnicredito
February 20075.4100%685 19TAS BankSwedbank
June 20066.146%31.5141IMB GroupPrivate Placement
June 20075.538%10093IMB GroupPrivate Placement
October 20054.294%10282Aval BankRaiffeisen Bank
December 2005
3.851%3493UkrsibbankBNP Paribas
March 20067.198%257 21IndexbankCredit Agricole
April 20065.619%47 28Rodovid BankPrivate Placement
DatePrice/BV Multiple
StakeValue,
$ MRank by Assets
TargetBuyer
M&A Banking
Buyer Target
2006Sales,
$M
Deal Value,
$ M StakePrice/Sales Date
Private Placement
Pepsi Co (USA)
Private Placement
Vinnifruit (Beverages)
Sandora (Juices)
Motor Sich (Engine manufacturer)
26
227
245
15
542
18.7
25%
80%
6%
2.4
3.0
1.3
June 2007
June 2007
June 2007
Private Placement
Dakor (Sugar processor) 63 21 20% 1.7 May 2007
Bel (France) Shostka (Cheese producer) 44 n/a 71% n/a May 2007
Auchan Group (France)
Furshet (Retail trade) 481 127 20% 1.3 March 2007
M&A Other Sectors
M&A Activity in CEE 2006
• Extremely active market: +2,500 transactions; 12% of European
market, $163 billion
• M&A activity doubled over 2005; tripled 2004 value
• Top 3 countries by value: Russia, Czech Republic, Poland
• Top 3 growth countries by volume: Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia
• Top 3 growth countries by value: Croatia, Hungary, Russia
• Top 3 investors in region: UK, Germany, US
• Proportion of deals ↓ $100 mn: 82%
• Average deal size of deals ↓ $100 mn: $20 mn.
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers CEE M&A Survey 2006
M&A Activity in CEE in 2006
• Top target industries: manufacturing, financial services, food &
beverages, utilities
• Total value of privatizations down – much of CEE is more mature
• Investment flows moving east: 75% of financial services
transactions (397) closed were in Russia, Ukraine, Serbia, Bulgaria
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers M&A Survey 2006
M&A Activity in CEE in 2006
• Since 1990 €9 bn. raised specifically for CEE (excluding Ukraine,
Russia)
• Annual investment levels exceeding €550 mn.
• Private equity investments across CEE totaled €508 mn. in 2005
• More than 85% of activity concentrated in Hungary, Czech Republic,
Poland, Romania
• On average private equity investment is equivalent to 7% of GDP (in
contrast to Europe on the whole ~40%)
Source: EVCA Special Paper, Central and Eastern Europe Statistics 2005
EVCA Symposium, June 2006
Private Equity in CEE
• Buyout largest category and increasing in 2005
• Together buyouts and replacement capital 72% of value, similar to
Europe as a whole
• Expansion capital deals over 2% (higher than in Europe)
• Starting and seed deals under 2% (lower than in Europe)
• Leverage becoming ever more available
Source: EVCA Special Paper, Central and Eastern Europe Statistics 2005
EVCA Symposium, June 2006
Private Equity in CEE
• Exit activity (measured by cost of investment) ↑ 244% over 2004
• Public market exits ↑ 70% over 2004
• Secondary sales to other private equity houses not yet significant
• Poland largest exit market, 25% of total activity Source: EVCA Special Paper, Central and Eastern Europe Statistics 2005
EVCA Symposium, June 2006
Private Equity in CEE
• Buyout followed by infusion of growth capital
• Low entry multiple (2.5x EBITDA)
• Executed plan to grow aggressively while improving brand and
distribution
• Exit at 5.9x cash on cash and over 470% IRR
Shostka – Leading Producer of Hard Cheeses
• Identified growth area – started mortgage bank
• Created expansion opportunity – management spin-out of leading
consumer intermediary
• Attracted high quality, experienced management and Non-Executive
Board Chairman
• Private placement in July 2006 attracted $31.5 mn. for a 46% equity
stake – 6x NAV pre-money
• Completed $100 mn. equity increase in June 2007 for a 38% equity
stake – 6x NAV pre-money
IMB Group – Pure Play Consumer Lending Platform
• Identified under penetrated growth area – non-food consumer
spending
• Improved transparency enabling access to credit
• Provided capital for new manufacturing site and recycling center –
cost savings created
• Growing 50% year on year
• Product line extensions next step
Ergopack – Market Leader Manufacturer of Household Disposables
• ↑ Fundraising for the region
• ↑ Competition
• ↑ Average enterprise value
• ↑ Buyouts/controlling stakes
• ↑ Use of leverage
• ↑ IPO’s
• ↑ Secondary purchases
• ↓ Holding periods
What Does the Future Hold?
Natalie A. Jaresko, Managing Partner
4 Muzeyny Provulok, 3rd Floor
01001 Kyiv, Ukraine
Tel.: +38 044 490-5580
Fax: +38 044 490-5589
www.horizoncapital.com.ua
Contact Information