Act’s Place in Advertising History · la sen 95% ak sen 72% MI SEN 82% AR SEN 67% *2014 US Senate...
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www.KantarMedia.US © 2014 Kantar Media DRAFT – EMBARGOED UNTIL 5/16/14 12 NOON ET The Affordable Care Act’s Place in Advertising History AAPOR 2014 Annual Conference 1 May 2014 Elizabeth Wilner & Mitchell West Kantar Media CMAG
Transcript of Act’s Place in Advertising History · la sen 95% ak sen 72% MI SEN 82% AR SEN 67% *2014 US Senate...
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DRAFT – EMBARGOED UNTIL 5/16/14 12 NOON ET
The Affordable Care Act’s Place in Advertising History
AAPOR 2014 Annual Conference
1
May 2014
Elizabeth Wilner & Mitchell West
Kantar Media CMAG
www.KantarMedia.US 2
A Tale of Two Ads
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2008
• Obama ad vs. McCain on healthcare reform airs 24,000 times,
• becoming the most-aired political ad of 2008…
• and the last 10 years…
• so possibly, ever
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A Tale of Two Ads
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4 years later… • after ACA enactment on March 23, 2010…
• and several pro-ACA Democrats lose seats that fall…
2012 • Obama re-elect airs just 1 ad* about healthcare reform.
• Of Obama’s 559,000 airings, only 3% mention the ACA.
*In English. The Obama campaign also aired 11 healthcare reform-related ads in Spanish.
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Unprecedented, largely unanswered negative political ad spend
– $418M estimated negative TV ad spend, $27M positive = $15 : $1
– $445M total estimated spend: In 4 years, more than any other program in history except for
Social Security (1935) and Medicare (1965)
– Secondary cause after Citizens United for inflated TV ad spend since 2010: Some of the
biggest spenders not super PACs; AFP in 2014
Enrollment-focused public/private ad spend
– Millions of customers into the marketplace = hundreds of $M in insurer, gov’t TV ad spend
– $381M in insurer spend in Q4 2013/Q1 2014, $90M ACA-specific
– $56M in state exchange spend
– $103M in USDHHS since enactment, $63M in 2013-2014
*POLITICAL and USDHHS: March 23, 2010 through April 22, 2014. Includes campaign and issue TV ad spend only. INSURER: October 1, 2013
through April 15, 2014. EXCHANGE: all state exchange advertising.
The ACA: Unprecedented Advertising Event
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The ACA: Unprecedented Advertising Event
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$700M in advertising
• But little aimed at making people feel more positively about
healthcare reform.
Advertising is a tell
• Political, insurer ads are reflecting public opinion, not shaping it.
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• Spot TV in all 210 markets + 10 broadcast nets + 80 national cable nets
• System captures and counts ads
• Automatically tracks where, when and how much
• CMAG analysts code for content: sponsors, messages (e.g.,
“Obamacare,” healthcare reform) and other attributes
Real-time view on political ad placement,
spending and content
How CMAG Works
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• “Job-killing,” government run
amok
• Lack of ACA-driven 2012
Republican victories
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Negative Political Ad Spend
• News-fueled ads: healthcare.gov
“train wreck,” canceled policies,
higher premiums
• Open enrollment overlap: Early
2014 ad spend heaviest in
markets with lots of uninsured
• GOP primary issue: Ads captured
in May for SEN, HOUSE, GOV,
LG, AG, ST SEN, ST REP, PSC
B E F O R E 1 0 / 1 / 1 3 1 0 / 1 / 1 3 O N W A R D
– $418M on 880,000 negative spots; $27M on 58,000 positive
– Nearly all local TV
– Concentrated in election years
VS.
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Getting to $418M: 16 levels of elective office
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*March 23, 2010 through April 22, 2014. Includes campaign and issue TV spot occurrences only.
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Getting to $418M: “Obamacare” = Obama
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2014 Senate and House
• Anti-Obama ads $27.8M
• Anti-“Obamacare” ads $23.7M
• Overlap 85%
All 2014 races
• Anti-Obama ads $43.9M
• Anti-“Obamacare” ads $33.3M
• Overlap 76%
2014-focused campaign and issue TV ad spend through May 6, 2014. Ads must specifically mention “Obamacare” to be considered “anti-Obama;” negative
references to the ACA that use another description are not considered “anti-Obama.”
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2014 Anti-ACA GOP General Election Advertising
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As of late April, __% of all Republican general election spots
on broadcast TV in [race] contained anti-ACA messages.
ALL: 76%
NH SEN 100% WV-03 79%
NC SEN 100% KY SEN 78%
13 House races 100% FL-13 special 75%
LA SEN 95% AK SEN 72%
MI SEN 82% AR SEN 67% *2014 US Senate and House general election-focused spot occurrences on broadcast TV as of April 22, 2014.
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2014 Anti-ACA GOP General Election Advertising and the Uninsured
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As of late April, __% of all Republican general election spots on
broadcast TV in [race] contained anti-ACA messages.
% Uninsured in Key DMAs
NC SEN 100% Raleigh: 21.7%, Charlotte: 23%, Greensboro: 23.7%
AZ-01, AZ-02 100% Phoenix: 22.8%
LA SEN 95% Baton Rouge: 23%, Lafayette: 26%,
New Orleans: 26.4%,Shreveport: 27.8%, Monroe: 27.9%
WV-03 79% Charleston: 23.2%, Bluefield-Beckley: 23.4%
KY SEN 78% Louisville: 20.1%, Lexington: 21.9%, Bowling Green: 23.4%
FL-13 special 75% Tampa: 27.3%
AR SEN 67% Little Rock: 24.5%, Monroe: 27.9%, Fort Smith: 28%
*2014 US Senate and House general election-focused spot occurrences on broadcast TV as of April 22, 2014. Percentages of uninsured by media market
courtesy of Civis Analytics and GMMB.
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Negative = positive “(R) would deny coverage for preexisting conditions, let insurers charge
women more for healthcare/mammograms*”
(e.g., MI SEN, NC SEN, WV-03)
Partial pro “(D) held insurers accountable*, ensured coverage of preexisting
conditions, affordable access for women;” “Keep what’s right and fix
what’s wrong”
(e.g., AK SEN; FL-13; NC SEN)
Yay, ACA 2014 (no “e.g.”—this is it): Arkoosh, Leach (PA-13), McGinty, Schwartz (PA
GOV); 2013: Pallone (NJ SEN)
*10 sponsors of political ads containing anti-insurer messages to date.
2014: Whither the “Pro’s?”
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Insurers: Switzerland
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October 1, 2013 - April 15, 2014
Overall: $381M on 771,000 spots
ACA-specific: $90M (24%) on 259,000 (34%)
• Enrollment vs. favorability “concerned?,” “confused?,” “change is coming,” “enroll or
pay a fine,” “enrollment ends March 31”
• Only one major insurer (BCBS) referenced the ACA in ads until late 2013
• ACA-specific activity didn’t break $3M/week until January, peaked week of March 3 at
$7.4M
• Broken healthcare.gov: 3 Wellmark BCBS ads = national news coverage
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The Message Muddle
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*2014 US Senate and House general election-focused spend on local broadcast as of April 22, 2014.
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*Ad activity starting October 1, 2013.
Top ACA Program Genres
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Anti-ACA political: local news news forum/interview talk
Anti-insurer political: local news talk news forum/interview
State exchange: local news talk news forum/interview
USDHHS: talk sitcom slice of life
Insurer talk local news slice of life
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Elizabeth Wilner
SVP – Political, Kantar Media Ad Intelligence
@CMAGAdFacts
Thank you.
www.KantarMedia.US © 2014 Kantar Media
About Kantar Media CMAG
The leading nonpartisan source of political TV advertising placement, content and
spend, Kantar Media CMAG monitors local TV advertising in all 210 US media markets
as well as advertising on 10 national broadcast networks and more than 80 national
cable networks; CMAG does not track local cable advertising.
Tracked advertisers include candidates, parties, super PACs, 501(c)4 organizations,
interest groups and other non-candidate and non-party organizations. Tracked ACA-
related advertisers also include insurance companies, co-ops and brokers; state
exchanges, marketplaces, advocacy organizations and local news sponsored PSAs; and
the US Department of Health and Human Services.
Follow us @CMAGAdFacts
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