ACT Population Projections

2018 to 2058

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© Australian Capital Territory, Canberra, January 2019 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without written permission from the ACT Government, GPO Box 158, Canberra City ACT 2601. Produced by the Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. Enquiries about this publication should be directed to: Andrew Beaumont Macroeconomic Branch Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate GPO Box 158 Canberra City ACT 2601 Email: Andrew.Beaumont@act.gov.au

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Contents

List of tables 5

List of figures 6

Chief Minister’s foreword 7

1.0 Summary of the projections 8

2.0 Introduction 10

2.1 Future releases of ACT Population Projections 10

2.2 Limitations of projections 10

2.3 Rounding 11

2.4 Years 11

2.5 Projection variants 11

3.0 Population Projections 12

3.1 Projection assumptions 12

3.2 Key results – 2017 to 2022 12

3.2.1 Total population change 12

3.2.2 Demographic components of population change 13

3.2.3 Age structure change 14

3.2.4 Population by district and suburb 16

3.3 Key results – 2017 to 2058 17

3.3.1 Demographic components of population change 18

3.3.2 Age structure change 18

3.3.3 Median age 20

3.3.4 Population by district 20

4.0 Projection assumptions 22

4.1 Initial population assumptions 22

4.2 Fertility assumptions 22

4.2.1 Past trends in ACT total fertility rate 22

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4.3 Mortality assumptions 22

4.3.1 Past trends in ACT mortality rates 23

4.3.2 ACT mortality rate assumptions 24

4.4 Migration assumptions 24

4.4.1 Past trends in ACT migration 24

4.4.2 ACT’s migration assumptions 24

5.0 Additional information 26

5.1 Previous population projection releases 26

6.0 Appendices 27

6.1 Projections methodology 27

6.1.1 Territory projections 27

6.1.2 Suburb Level (SA2) projections 27

6.1.3 ABS Cohort-Component Demographic Model 30

6.2 Detailed tables 33

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List of Tables Table 3.1 Summary of key assumptions 12 Table 3.2 Population by district, 2017 and 2058 17 Table 6.1 Population projections by district (people), 2017 - 2022 33 Table 6.2 Population projections by suburb (people), 2017 - 2022 34 Table 6.3 Population projections by age cohort (people), 2017 - 2022 38 Table 6.4 Population projections by age cohort (Males), 2017 - 2022 39 Table 6.5 Population Projections by age cohort (Females), 2017 - 2022 40 Table 6.6 Population Projections by age cohort and by sex, 2017 - 2058 41

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List of figures Figure 3.1 Historical and projected population growth, 1982 to 2022 13 Figure 3.2 Population growth by component: historical and projections, 1982 to 2022 13 Figure 3.3 Age structure of the ACT population, 2017 and 2022 14 Figure 3.4 Percent change in the projected population by age, 2017 to 2022 15 Figure 3.5 Population by key age group as a proportion of total population, 2017 and 2022 15 Figure 3.6 Population growth by district, 2017 to 2022 16 Figure 3.7 Historical and projected population, 1982 to 2058 17 Figure 3.8 Population growth by component, 2017 to 2058 18 Figure 3.9 Age structure of the ACT’s population, 2017 and 2058 19 Figure 3.10 Population by age cohort, 2017 to 2058 19 Figure 3.11 ACT’s median age, 2017 to 2058 20 Figure 3.12 Population by district, 2017 to 2058 20 Figure 3.13 Population growth by district, 2017 to 2058 21 Figure 4.1 Total fertility rate for the ACT, 1999 to 2022 23 Figure 4.2 Mortality rate for the ACT, 1999 to 2022 23 Figure 4.3 Net Interstate Migration and Net Overseas Migration, 1996 to 2017 24

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Chief Minister’s foreword The ACT Government is committed to ensuring we keep delivering high quality services and infrastructure as Canberra grows. Accurate population projections underpin this task by ensuring we know when and where these will be needed across our city. The ACT’s population is projected to reach around 450,000 people by 2022, an increase of 40,000 compared with 30 June 2017. By 2058, an estimated 700,000 people will call the ACT home. That is why we are investing now in major projects like the light rail network, the expansion of the Canberra Hospital and new schools across the city, to ensure we are ready for the additional demand this will create. In addition to growing, these projections show that the structure of the ACT’s population is likely to change over time. As in many parts of Australia, our community is ageing – the proportion of the population aged 85 years and over is expected to increase by 16 per cent between 2017 and 2022. Similarly, the proportion of the population aged 65 to 84 years will rise by 18 per cent. This is not surprising given Canberrans enjoy the longest life expectancy in the country thanks to our excellent quality of life and great local healthcare. While Canberra remains younger than the national average, the proportion of the population aged 20 to 64 years is projected to decline slightly in the coming years. The share of young Canberrans aged 0 to 19 years is projected to remain stable, at 25 per cent of the total population. One of the things that keeps Canberra a relatively young city is our strong education and research institutions, which are now attracting students from across Australia and around the world. As the ACT’s largest service export and a major source of local employment, we will continue strengthening the education sector in the years to come to draw even more bright young people to Canberra. These projections show that the shape of Canberra will continue to change over time as new communities fill out. For example, the population of the Molonglo region will grow by about 8,500 people by 2022, the Belconnen region by almost 8,000 people and the Gungahlin region by 5,500 people. While the rates of growth are expected to be lower in some of Canberra’s more established communities like Weston Creek, these projections show that all parts of Canberra will continue to grow and thrive. The ACT Population Projections: 2018 to 2058 provide a basis for assessing the future needs of our growing community. They will help inform the Government’s planning for a wide range of services and infrastructure, including hospitals and local health facilities, schools, housing supply, roads and public transport, public utilities and playgrounds. The Government will update these official population projections every two years to reflect changing demographic or migration trends, ensuring that we continue to plan ahead for Canberra’s ongoing growth. Andrew Barr MLA ACT Chief Minister

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1.0 Summary of the projections _________________________________________________________________ ACT Population Projections: 2018 to 2058 presents the ACT Government’s official population projections by age, sex and suburb. The projections presented in this report are based on Regional Population by Age and Sex, Australia, 2017, (ABS Cat. No. 3235.0). The projections are based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 20171 and assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration. The ACT Government’s long-term land release program as well as other assumptions about expected development have also been used to project estimated resident population for new suburbs. These projections supersede the previous ACT demographic projections released in March 2017. Approximately 51 per cent of the growth in population by 2022 is anticipated to be driven by natural increase (births minus deaths), with around 46 per cent driven by net overseas migration. Net interstate migration is expected to make a small, but positive, contribution of 3 per cent. In 2058, natural increase is expected to continue to be main driver of population growth accounting for 50 per cent of total growth, followed by net overseas migration (47 per cent) and net interstate migration (3 per cent). The ACT’s population growth is expected to vary by age group. Between 2017 and 2022: • the population aged 19 years and under is projected to increase by 11 per cent, with its

share of the total population remaining at around 25 per cent; • the population aged 20 to 64 years is projected to increase by 8 per cent, with its share

of the total population expected to decline slightly from 62 per cent in 2017 to 61 per cent in 2022;

• the population aged 65 to 84 years is projected to increase by 18 per cent, with its share of the total population projected to increase slightly from 11 per cent to 12 per cent; and

• the population aged 85 years and over is projected to increase by 16 per cent, with its share of the total population projected to increase slightly from 1.5 per cent to 1.6 per cent.

Between 2017 and 2058: • the population aged 19 years and under is projected to increase by 60 per cent, with its

share of the total population decreasing from 25 per cent in 2017 to 23 per cent in 2058;

• the population aged 20 to 64 years is projected to increase by around 62 per cent, with its share of the total population expected to decline from 62 per cent in 2017 to 59 per cent in 2058;

• the population aged 65 to 84 years is projected to increase by 125 per cent, with its share of the total population projected to increase from 11 per cent in 2017 to 15 per cent in 2058; and

1ABS Cat. No. 3235.0 – Regional Population by Age and Sex, Australia, 2017 (released on 28 September 2018).

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• the population aged 85 years and over is projected to increase by 228 per cent, with its share of the total population projected to double from 1.5 per cent in 2017 to 3 per cent in 2058.

It is important to recognise that the projections reflect the outcomes of certain assumptions about the future of fertility, mortality and migration, assumptions which may not eventuate. The projections do not represent population targets nor do they represent ACT Government policy positions. As such, the projections should not be interpreted as fixed, precise predictions of the demographic future, but rather an indication of potential population change.

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2.0 Introduction

This report presents the ACT Government’s population projections by age, sex and suburb (Statistical Area 2) for the period 2018 – 2022 and population projections by age, sex and district (Statistical Area 3) for the period 2018 – 2058. Actual data from 2017 has been used as the base year for these projections. The projection methodology used to produce the ACT population projections is based on the internationally accepted cohort-component projections method2. Section 3 of this report presents population projections for the ACT. Projections are available as at 30 June for each year from 2018 to 2058. Section 4 of this report identifies the assumptions regarding the future of fertility, mortality and migration for the ACT. Section 5 presents some additional commentary on the need for demographic data for planning purposes. Section 6 presents the projection methodology and selected tables containing demographic information. Detailed tables are available on the Treasury website: https://apps.treasury.act.gov.au/snapshot/demography/act. 2.1 Future releases of ACT Population Projections It is anticipated that subsequent releases of ACT population projections, as well as ACT suburb-level population projections, will be published biennially, or more frequently should there be any significant parameter changes that would warrant doing so. The ACT Government also publishes forecast growth in the estimated resident population as part of its Budget and Budget Review process. 2.2 Limitations of projections These population projections are not intended to present predictions of the demographic future to a high degree of precision. Instead, the population projections contained in this report are the result of certain assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Future trends in fertility, mortality and migration are influenced by a variety of social, economic and political factors. Due to the difficulty in predicting such factors, assumptions based on long-run average fertility, mortality and migration trends have been employed in these projections. It is anticipated that actual trends in fertility, mortality and migration will vary to some degree in comparison to the long-run assumptions. These population projections do not represent ACT Government population targets and have been developed on a policy-neutral basis. Consequently, the ACT population projections contained in this document should not be interpreted as precise predictions of the demographic future, but instead provide an indication of population change and its subsequent possible implications for the Territory.

2 Samuel H. Preston, Patrick Heuveline and Michael Guillot, ‘Demography: Measuring and Modelling Population Processes’ (Cornwall: Blackwell Publishers, 2001), p119.

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2.3 Rounding Percentages in this report are rounded to the nearest whole number. 2.4 Years Throughout this report, the phrase “The population in 20xx” refers to the ACT’s projected population as at 30 June of that year. 2.5 Projection variants Alternative projection variants have not been published in this report.

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3.0 Population projections 3.1 Projection assumptions Table 3.1 outlines key assumptions used in ACT population projections. Further discussion of these assumptions is at Section 4.

Table 3.1 Summary of key assumptions

Key variable Assumption

Total Fertility Rate* 1.75 births per woman (aged 15 – 49 years)

Life expectancy at birth**

Males 81.1 years in 2016-17, rising by 0.13 years per annum

Females 85.2 years in 2016-17, rising by 0.13 years per annum

Net Migration*** Interstate Based on 10-year average of net interstate migration share of

total ACT population

Overseas Based on ACT's share of national migration sourced from 2018-19 Federal Budget Paper 3

Source: ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

* Total Fertility Rate takes into account the latest ABS data, and is held constant over the projection period.

** The life expectancy at birth assumption used in these projections is consistent with the values published in Life Tables, States,

Territories and Australia, 2015-2017 (ABS Cat. No. 3302.0.55.001).

*** The specified Net Interstate Migration (NIM) figures reflect a 10-year average of net interstate migration as a share of total ACT

population. The specified Net Overseas Migration (NOM) figures reflects ACT's share of national net overseas migration as reported in

2018-19 Federal Budget Paper 3. 3.2 Key results – 2017 to 2022 The resident population of the ACT is estimated to have been around 411,667 people as at 30 June 2017. The ACT population is projected to reach 452,590 people by 2022. This population growth represents an increase of 10 per cent over the projection period (or 1.9 per cent per annum on average over this period). Natural increase (births minus deaths) is expected to contribute 51 per cent of this growth by 2022, with net overseas migration accounting for 46 per cent and net interstate migration contributing 3 per cent. 3.2.1 Total population change The results of the projected ACT population over the period 2017 - 2022 by five year age cohorts and sex are tabulated at Section 6 of this report. Detailed tables are also available on the Treasury website: https://apps.treasury.act.gov.au/snapshot/demography/act. Figure 3.1 below illustrates the historical and projected ACT population growth over the period 1982 - 2022.

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Figure 3.1 Historical and projected population growth, 1982 to 2022

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. 3.2.2 Demographic components of population change Over the period 2017 to 2022, natural increase (births less deaths) is anticipated to contribute approximately 50 per cent of the ACT’s population growth, with net overseas migration contributing 47 per cent and net interstate migration contributing the remaining 3 per cent. Figure 3.2 below illustrates the components of historical and projected population growth (natural increase and net migration) over the period 2001 – 2022.

Figure 3.2 Population growth by component: historical and projections, 1982 to 2022

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

Projections

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3.2.3 Age structure change Population growth is projected separately for all ages over the projection period. The most notable increase in population numbers is anticipated to occur for people aged 65 years and over (Figure 3.3). The ACT’s population at each age is expected to increase for most single years of age between 2017 and 2022. There are a few age cohorts, though, that are expected to decline over this period, as shown in Figure 3.3 below (i.e. where the green bars are outside the red line).

Figure 3.3 Age structure of the ACT population, 2017 and 2022

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Note: The chart does not show the ACT’s population 85 years and over, as projections by single year of age is estimated from

0 – 84 years. From ages 85 years to 100 years and over, the projection is estimated as 85 years and over. ACT population growth varies by age. Figure 3.4 illustrates the per cent change in the ACT’s population by single year of age over the period 2017 - 2022. The major changes in the ACT’s population over the projection period are expected to occur for those aged 71 years and over.

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Figure 3.4 Percent Change in the Projected Population by Age, 2017 to 2022

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. The total population in the ACT is projected to grow by 10 per cent from 2017 – 2022. The number of people aged 19 years and under is projected to increase by 11 per cent. The number of people aged 20 – 64 years is projected to increase by 8 per cent, the number of people aged 65 – 84 years is projected to increase by 18 per cent and the number of people aged 85 years and over is expected to increase by 16 per cent.

Figure 3.5 Population by key age group as a proportion of total population, 2017 and 2022

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. Figure 3.5 illustrates the ACT’s population by key age groups. Figure 3.5 shows that the

Total Growth (2017 – 2022) – 10%

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20 – 39 year age cohort is expected to represent the largest proportion of the ACT’s population in 2022. While the number of people aged 65 years and over is smaller than the number of children throughout the projection period, there is substantial growth in the 65 years and over age cohort. 3.2.4 Population by district and suburb The ACT’s demographic structure by suburb has changed considerably over time as a result of the ACT Government’s land release program, including the establishment of new suburbs in Canberra’s north and west. The population structure at the district level has also changed. Changes in demographic structure by district and suburb are expected to continue over the projection period. Population growth by district in the period 2017 to 2022 is illustrated in figure 3.6 below.

Figure 3.6 Population growth by district, 2017 to 2022

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9,500Persons

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. Molonglo’s population increase reflects planned new land released for the suburbs of Coombs, Denman Prospect, Molonglo, Molonglo Stage 3, Wright and Whitlam. The increase in Woden’s population reflects the planned release of further land in Phillip. Similarly, the increase in the projected population in the North is due to the release of new suburbs in Gungahlin including Moncrieff, Jacka, Kenny, Taylor and Throsby. Belconnen will see continued residential construction in the new suburb of Lawson and new apartments in the town centre. Table 6.2 in the Appendix provides a breakdown of population projection by district and suburb. A more detailed breakdown of the ACT’s population by district and suburb is available on the ACT Treasury website: https://apps.treasury.act.gov.au/snapshot/demography/act.

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3.3 Key results - 2017 to 2058 The resident population of the ACT is estimated to reach 703,422 people by 30 June 2058. This represents an increase of around 71 per cent from 30 June 2017 (or an increase of 291,755 people over this period). Belconnen’s population is projected to increase by 53,860 people, followed by Molonglo (56,323 people), North Canberra (35,787 people) and Woden (20,550 people) as Table 3.2 below demonstrates.

Table 3.2 Population by district, 2017 and 2058

District Actual 2017

Projection Change 2058 (people)

Belconnen 98,592 152,452 53,860 Canberra East 1,544 1,229 -315 Gungahlin 76,088 87,507 11,419 North Canberra 55,810 91,597 35,787 South Canberra 28,788 38,530 9,742 Tuggeranong 85,490 90,178 4,688 Weston Creek 23,226 26,268 3,042 Woden 35,813 56,363 20,550 Molonglo 5,710 62,033 56,323 Urriarra-Namadgi 606 604 -2 Unallocated 0 96,660 96,660 Total 411,667 703,422 291,755

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. From 2017 to 2058, the ACT’s population is expected to grow steadily at an average annual rate of 1.3 per cent (see Figure 3.7 below).

Figure 3.7 Historical and projected population, 1982 – 2058

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

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3.3.1 Demographic components of population change Over the period 2017 – 2058, natural increase (births less deaths) is anticipated to contribute approximately 50 per cent of the ACT’s population growth, with net overseas migration contributing 47 per cent and the net interstate migration contributing the remaining 3 per cent. Figure 3.8 below illustrates the components of projected population growth (natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration) over the period 2017 to 2058.

Figure 3.8 Population growth by component, 2017 to 2058

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Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

3.3.2 Age structure change Population growth is projected separately for all ages over the projection period. The most notable increase is anticipated for people aged between 20 and 40 (Figure 3.9). The ACT’s population at each age is expected to increase for all single years of age from 2017 to 2058. Looking at population growth by age cohort, Figure 3.9 below shows that the ACT’s population aged between 30 – 44 years is the largest proportion of the population and is expected to remain so in the long term. This is closely followed by those aged between 15 – 29 years. Figure 3.10 below highlights the movement in the ACT’s population over time from 2017 to 2058 by selected age cohort.

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Figure 3.9 Age structure of the ACT’s population, 2017 and 2058

5500 4500 3500 2500 1500 500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500048

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Number of Females

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Number of Males

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Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

Note: The chart does not show the ACT’s population aged 85 years and over, as projections by single year of age are only

estimated from 0 – 84 years.

Figure 3.10 Population by age cohort, 2017 to 2058

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Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

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3.3.3 Median age The median age is that which divides a population into two numerically equal groups where half the people are younger and half are older. It is a single index that summarises the age distribution of a population. The median age of the population in the ACT in 2017 is estimated to be 34 years and is projected to increase to 37.3 years by 2058 (Figure 3.11).

Figure 3.11 ACT’s median age, 2017 to 2058

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Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. 3.3.4 Population by district The ACT’s demographic structure at suburb and district level has changed considerably over time as a result of the ACT Government’s land release program and other development activity in the Territory.

Figure 3.12 Population by district, 2017 to 2058

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Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

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Changes in demographic structure by district and suburb will continue over the projection period. Population growth by district in the period 2017 to 2058 is illustrated in figure 3.13 below.

Figure 3.13 Population growth by district, 2017 to 2058

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. Increases in the ACT’s population that have not been allocated to a region have been categorised as “Unallocated”. This component represents expected additional population growth that is either not accounted for in existing long term planning strategies or lies outside planning timeframes. This unallocated population group will therefore help to inform future planning decisions.

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4.0 Projection assumptions ____________________________________________________________________________ 4.1 Initial population assumptions ACT population projections are based on an initial starting population of 411,667 people, which is the preliminary estimated resident population at 30 June 2017.3 The preliminary estimated resident population as at 30 June 2017 is derived from the 2016 Census counts of usual residents adjusted for: net under-enumeration (adding in people missed by the Census, and taking out any double counting); residents temporarily overseas; and population change due to natural increase and net migration, which occurred between the 2016 Census night (9 August 2016) and 30 June 2017. 4.2 Fertility assumptions Projections for the future number of births require assumptions about future fertility rates, as well as assumptions about the sex ratio at birth. The model applies age-specific fertility rates individually to females of child-bearing age (15 – 49 years) and this process is applied annually. The birth rate for a specific age is applied based on its proportion of total population. For example, if only one 15 year old female had a child in 2017 out of 2,000 15 year old females, this proportion is also assumed for 2018 and so forth. Similar treatment is applied to all child bearing aged females annually. The total fertility rate, which represents the average number of babies that a group of women would bear during their lifetimes (under a certain set of age-specific fertility rates), and provided they survive to the end of their reproductive years, is calculated from the age specific fertility rates. The total fertility rate is expressed as the average number of births per woman. The sex ratio at birth is defined as the ratio of the number of male babies born to the number of female babies born. 4.2.1 Past trends in ACT total fertility rate Figure 4.1 shows a consistent average level of fertility in the ACT throughout the 2000s, with a mild decline in fertility rates over recent years. However, the total fertility rate has increased in 2016-17 to 1.83 births per woman. The total fertility rate is also currently above the ACT’s 10-year average. Taking this into consideration, it is assumed that in the long-run, the ACT’s total fertility rate will be around the 10-year average rate of 1.75 births per woman. 4.3 Mortality assumptions Projections of the future number of deaths, by age and sex, require assumptions about future age- and sex-specific mortality rates. Unlike fertility and migration, mortality trends are much more stable over time. As such, mortality trends are highly amenable to mathematical extrapolation from historical data.

3 ABS Cat. No. 3235.0 – Regional Population by Age and Sex, Australia, 2017 (28 September 2018).

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Figure 4.1 - Total fertility rate for the ACT, 1999 to 2022

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3301.0, 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

4.3.1 Past trends in ACT mortality rates Mortality rates in the ACT have been decreasing steadily overtime (Figure 4.2) and are currently around their five-year average. The decrease in the mortality rates means increasing life expectancy at birth for both males and females in the ACT.

Figure 4.2 - Mortality rate for the ACT, 1999 to 2022

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3302.0, 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

Note: Mortality rate data refers to the Standardised Death Rate - Deaths per 1,000 standard population. Standardised death rates use

total people in the ACT population at 30 June as the standard population.

Projections

Projections

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4.3.2 ACT mortality rate assumptions The population projections assume that the mortality rate plateaus to a standardised death rate of 4.6 deaths per 1,000 people. This mortality rate is kept constant over the projection period (Figure 4.2). It is also important to account for the effect of compositional change in the population when considering mortality. A rise in older people as a share of the population would increase projected mortality, even if life expectancy outcomes improve. This was taken into account in the projection process. 4.4 Migration assumptions Migration assumptions have been made for two types of migration: • overseas migration (people immigrating to the ACT from overseas and people emigrating

from the ACT to overseas); and • interstate migration (people moving usual residence between the ACT and another state

or territory within Australia).

4.4.1 Past Trends in ACT Migration Historically, both overseas and interstate migration numbers have proved to be extremely volatile. This is highlighted in Figure 4.3, which shows net overseas and interstate migration for the ACT over the period 1996 - 2017. There is a higher level of volatility in the ACT’s net interstate migration compared to net overseas migration.

Figure 4.3 - Net Interstate Migration and Net Overseas Migration, 1996 to 2017

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0. 4.4.2 ACT’s migration assumptions The population projections assume that net interstate migration accounts for 3.4 per cent of the annual change in the total population of the ACT. This means net interstate migration falls slightly, from a gain of 278 people in 2018, to a gain of 269 people in 2022. This is considered to be a reasonable assumption on the basis of current trends, noting that the level of interstate migration is difficult to predict from year to year due to inherent volatility. The population projections assume a net overseas migration gain of 3,904 people in 2018, falling to 3,645 people in 2020. This is based on the ACT receiving a share of international

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migration as estimated by the Federal Government4, based on the ACT’s population relative to the national population. Going forward, this population share of migration is applied to a capped ceiling of an annual overseas migration to Australia of 190,000 people5. This capped ceiling excludes migration under the Australia’s Refugee and Humanitarian Program.

4 2018-19 Budget, Budget Paper No. 3 – Federal Financial Relations, Appendix A – Parameters and Further Information, Commonwealth of Australia, 8 May 2018. 5 Australian Government Department of Home Affairs: https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/migration-program-planning-levels.

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5.0 Additional information ____________________________________________________________________________ 5.1 Previous population projection releases The March 2017 ACT Government projections are available on the Treasury website: https://apps.treasury.act.gov.au/snapshot/demography/act.

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6.0 Appendices ____________________________________________________________________________________ 6.1 Projections methodology The projections methodology used to produce the ACT population projections by age, sex and suburb presented in this report are based on the ABS’s cohort-component demographic model. The ABS describes the cohort-component population projections method as follows: ‘the cohort-component method begins with a base population for each sex by single year of age and advances it year by year by applying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. This procedure is repeated for each year in the projection period.6’

The ABS population projections model has been run using ACT-specific assumptions as provided by ACT Treasury to the ABS. Preliminary assumptions are discussed in Section 4 of this document. Information on the future ACT Government land release program, private developments and internal migration have also been used for projecting the population of existing and new suburbs. The ABS applied the following two-tiered process in projecting the resident population for the ACT: 1. Territory projections - the ACT population was projected by age and sex. 2. Statistical Area 2 projections (suburb level) - the population of all ACT SA2s were projected

by age and sex (constrained to the Territory’s total population by age and sex). 6.1.1 Territory projections The base population for the ACT cohort-component projection was preliminary age and sex estimated resident population as at 30 June 2017, incorporating results from the 2016 Census. Assumptions for the projections were based on both short- and long-term trends for each component of population change. The ACT Treasury provided the fertility, mortality, overseas migration and interstate migration assumptions. 6.1.2 Suburb Level (SA2) projections The base population for the SA2 cohort-component projections was the 30 June 2017 SA2 by age and sex. The fertility, mortality and migration assumptions were based on SA2-specific levels observed during the past five years, constrained to the assumed Territory levels and trends. The SA2 age and sex migration profiles were derived from 2016 Census data on place of usual residence one year ago. The ABS regularly collects demographic information at the SA2 level, which means that SA2 projections (in contrast to smaller areas) are firmly based on a series of known data. At each yearly cycle in this process, the resulting SA2 projections (including the new suburbs) were constrained to sum to the total ACT projections, helping to produce more reliable SA2 figures. SA2s with an estimated resident population of less than 1,000 people were generally held

6 ABS Cat. No. 3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) to 2066.

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constant for the projection duration as assumptions for the accompanying small age and sex cells are unreliable. SA2 boundaries are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Volume 1 – Main Structure and Greater Capital City Statistical Areas, July 2016 (ABS Cat. No. 1270.0.55.001) corresponding to those used for the 2016 Census. The ACT population projections are constrained to meet the Territory-wide projections determined by the ABS, which define the ACT population by single year of age, and sex. The base population for the ACT-wide cohort-component projection was preliminary age and sex estimated resident population as at 30 June 2017, incorporating results from the 2016 Census. Assumptions for the projections were based on both short and long-term trends for each component of population change. These fertility, mortality, overseas migration and interstate migration assumptions were provided by the ACT Treasury. Statistical area 2 (suburb level) projections by age and sex are based on the aggregate population projections derived by the ABS, based on macro-level population assumptions set by ACT Treasury. Just as the Territory-level aggregate projections are policy-neutral with regard to overseas migration, so too are suburb level projections policy-neutral with regard to the land release program. Further adjustments were made to the ABS projections based on the ACT Government long run Indicative Land Release Program and other expected development. Each established suburb, where no brownfield development is expected to occur under the Indicative Land Release Program, is assumed to converge to a long-run ‘carrying capacity’. This carrying capacity is set by allowing occupancy rates for detached houses, townhouses and units to converge to their respective long-run average occupancy rates, measured over a period of 10 years. The stock of these dwellings in each suburb determines capacity, and the transition to the long-run is assumed to be linear. The assumption underlying convergence to long run occupancy rates is that housing is fungible. In the long run, individuals, groups and families exhibit and act upon a strong, empirically observed preference to occupy dwellings at an intensity no greater than the long run average of that dwelling type observed in the ACT over the past two decades. Separately, brownfield development can occur within established suburbs. The total carrying capacity of brownfield developments is calculated in the same manner as the carrying capacity of greenfield development (described below). Brownfield capacity is added to the existing capacity of the suburb in question, to determine its total carrying capacity. The pace and intensity of brownfield development through time determines the suburb’s capacity profile over time. Historically, greenfield developments in the ACT have seen relatively high occupancy rates for all types of dwelling (houses, townhouses and units) for an extended period of time, when compared to ACT-wide averages. The carrying capacity of greenfield and brownfield suburbs is therefore a function of both the timing of development in those suburbs, as well as the cumulative rate at which occupancy for each type of dwelling released in past years converges to the long run average occupancy rate for dwellings of that type. For example, if 10 detached houses are released in one year, and 10 are released the next year, in the second year of that greenfield suburb’s existence, the total capacity of the suburb

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is (10 x (occupancy rate (t+1)))+(10 x (occupancy rate (t+0))), and so on. Occupancy rates are assumed to converge to the long-run ACT average for that type of dwelling over a period of 20 years. With respect to age profiles, specific assumptions are applied to greenfield developments. Population profiles for a wide range of ACT suburbs were examined with respect to the ACT-wide population profile by age at various points in time, corresponding to a range of ages for greenfield suburbs. Average deviations from the total ACT profile for a greenfield suburb were calculated for each year of a greenfield suburb’s age, and this ‘matrix of deviation’ is applied to the ACT’s projected population profile in each year (t), to determine the age profile of a greenfield suburb as a function of its total population. For relatively new existing suburbs (10 years old, or less), a carrying capacity population profile was calculated in the same fashion as a new greenfield development, under the assumption that such suburbs’ age is appropriately advanced with respect to a greenfield suburb’s observed lifecycle. For brownfield developments, no such age profile calculations are applied as there is insufficient evidence which would allow age profile dynamics for brownfield developments to be determined. As with existing suburbs, brownfield age profile dynamics are taken from ABS projections by age and sex for established SA2s, and the proportion of each individual year of age under the ABS’ projections is applied to the suburb’s total carrying capacity. These methods set the overall population for each established and new suburb in the ACT over the projection period. Minimal judgement is applied to these projections to smooth suburb total population profiles, which are then aggregated to the SA3 level (intra-ACT regions). Where required, minimal judgement is then applied to smooth these regional profiles. These totals are then aggregated to form an ACT total population, based on the carrying-capacity of the ACT’s housing stock. Where this differs from the ACT-wide total population projections (set independently, with respect to macro-level drivers), the difference is apportioned across the ACT, where apportioning is determined by each SA2’s share of the total population at that point in time. Differences in ACT-wide totals for population by single year of age are similarly reconciled with the independently set totals – discrepancies are spread proportionately across the ACT. However, in this case, greenfield suburbs are excluded from this apportioning process, as their age dynamics are set independently as described above. The exception to this apportioning process is for differences that occur beyond the horizon of the land release program (more than 30 years hence). After this point any differences between this method and the ACT-wide total then begin to form a projection for an ‘unallocated’ population – a population which could exist in the ACT in future assuming housing is available. That is, their accommodation will be determined by future land release programs. Likewise, the age dynamics of this ‘unallocated’ population is determined by examining the difference between the projections by single year of age and sex in each year for the ACT as defined by the ABS, and that determined by this methodology. This methodology does not account for any future private developments outside of the land

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release program that may occur in an area which would alter the housing stock of a suburb, and therefore its carrying capacity. However, the effect of these developments would typically be relatively small in the context of the ACT’s total population, as well as relative flows across SA2s in Canberra. Furthermore, taking into account the greenfield sites, this approach is not consistent with existing SA2 geography in that some existing SA2s (e.g. Molonglo Corridor) are described as new suburbs that do not have an assigned geography under ASGS 2016. 6.1.3 ABS Cohort-Component Demographic Model This section gives a more detailed breakdown of the two-tiered approach the ABS uses. Apart from the births formulae all equations apply to both sexes, so sex has not been denoted. Step 1 - Territory Projections This involved projecting the ACT population by age and sex at 30 June 2017 out to 30 June 2058. The cohort component method used can be summarised in the formulae below: Where:

x -> age max -> highest age projected (100+ for state; 85+ for sub-state) t -> base year P -> population F -> fertility rate f -> females B -> births Q -> death probability OM -> net overseas migration IM -> net interstate (or internal) migration NM -> net migration (SA2 projections only)

In Step 1 the following refer to interstate migration; in step 2 they refer to internal migration; and in step 3 they refer to overseas and inter-SA2 migration.

DEP -> departures ARR -> arrivals DEPRATE -> per capita departure rate (donor state or capital city-rest or SA2) ARRRATE -> per capita arrival rate (receiving states) For ages 0 to maximum age - 1: (i) Px+1(t+1) = Px(t) * [1-Qx(t)] + (0.5 * OMx(t)) * (1-(0.5 * Qx(t))) + (0.5 * OMx+1(t)) * (1-(0.5 * Qx+1(t))) (ii) Pmax(t+1) = Pmax(t) * [1-Qmax(t)] +

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Pmax-1(t) * [1-Qmax-1(t)] + OMmax(t) * (1-(0.5 * Qmax(t))) + (0.5 * OMmax-1(t)) * (1-(0.5 * Qmax-1(t))) Births were then calculated: 49 49 (iii) B(t) = 0.5*[ Σ(Fx(t)*Pf,x(t)) + Σ(Fx(t+1)*Pf,x(t+1))] x=15 x=15 After constraining to projected Australian-level births, these were then used to calculate age 0 in the projected year: (iv) P0(t+1)= B(t)*(1-Qb(t)) + (0.5*OM0(t)) * (1-(0.5*Q0(t))) Interstate migration was calculated by applying departure rates to the ACT population and arrival rates to the population of the remaining States and Territories (to obtain numbers departing other States to reside in ACT). These rates were based on the assumptions provided by the ACT Treasury. (v) DEPx(t+1) = Px(t+1) * DEPRATEx (vi) ARRx(t+1) = Px(t+1)Non-NSW * ARRRATEx The resulting total arrivals and departures were then scaled to a predetermined total net interstate migration assumption. Finally, the arrivals and departures by age and sex were scaled to the new arrival and departure totals, and then combined to give net age and sex interstate migration. (vii) IMx(t+1) = ARRx(t+1) - DEPx(t+1) Then add the interstate migration: (viii) Px(t+1) = Px(t+1) + IMx(t+1) To achieve coherent interstate migration figures, projections are concurrently run for all States, Territories and Australia. After constraining the sum of State age and sex population to the Australian-level (method described in Step 2), year t+1 then became the base for projecting the next year and the cycle was repeated until the final projection year was reached. Step 2 – Statistical Area 2 Projections This used the cohort component method to project all ACT SA2s. The formulae in Step 1 generally apply to the SA2 projections, except that the upper age is 85+, fertility rates are by 5yr age of mother, migration arrival rates were not used and Net Migration (overseas + inter-SA2) was used instead of overseas and inter-SA2 separately. This slightly simpler approach to migration was warranted as the overseas component is negligible in most SA2s in comparison with inter-SA2 migration. Furthermore as an annual

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historical time-series only exists at the SA2 level for net migration, any overseas/inter-SA2 split can only be approximated using past Census data. For ages 0 to maximum age - 1: (xx) Px+1(t+1) = Px(t) * [1-Qx(t)] (xxi) Pmax(t+1) = Pmax(t) * [1-Qmax(t)] + Pmax-1(t) * [1-Qmax-1(t)] Births were then calculated: 45-49 45-49 (xxii) B(t) = 0.5*[Σ(Fx(t)*Pf,x(t)) + Σ(Fx(t+1) * Pf,x(t+1))] x=15-19 x=15-19 After constraining to projected Territory births, these were then used to calculate age 0 in the projected year: (xxiii) P0(t+1) = B(t) * (1-Qb(t)) SA2 migration departures were calculated by applying 2011 Census-derived departure rates to the population: (xxiv) DEPx(t+1) = Px(t+1) * DEPRATEx Total SA2 arrivals were then derived using the pre-set net migration assumptions: x=max (xxv) ARR(t+1) = NM(t+1) - Σ DEPx(t+1) x=0 (xxvi) The assumed age-specific arrival levels were derived from 2011 Census data. Together with departures from (xxiv) these were simultaneously constrained (via IPF - see xvii - xix) to: (a) SA2 arrival and departure totals (from the previous 2 steps) (b) Territory age-specific net internal migration Then the arrivals and departures were applied to the population projected so far: (xxvii) Px(t+1) = Px(t+1) + ARRx(t+1) - DEPx(t+1) After constraining the SA2 age/sex populations to sum to the Territory projections using iterative proportional fitting (method described in Step 2), year t+1 then became the base for projecting the next year and the cycle was repeated until the projection horizon was reached.

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6.2 Detailed Tables

Table 6.1 Population projections by district (people), 2017 - 2022

District 2017(a) 2018(e) 2019 2020 2021 2022 Change

2017 - 2022 People Per cent Belconnen 98,592 98,371 100,743 102,763 104,250 106,196 7,604 7.7%

Canberra East 1,544 1,568 1,557 1,548 1,531 1,520 -24 -1.6%

Gungahlin 76,088 77,954 79,553 81,032 82,121 83,457 7,369 9.7%

North Canberra 55,810 54,855 56,170 57,833 59,433 61,157 5,347 9.6%

South Canberra 28,788 31,656 31,499 31,436 31,228 31,219 2,431 8.4% Tuggeranong 85,490 88,109 88,121 88,085 87,979 87,786 2,296 2.7% Weston Creek 23,226 23,257 23,419 23,624 23,724 23,886 660 2.8% Woden 35,813 37,866 39,379 40,337 41,193 42,149 6,336 17.7% Molonglo 5,710 6,082 7,466 9,374 12,592 14,622 8,912 156.1% Urriarra-Namadgi 606 603 602 603 600 599 -7 -1.1%

Unallocated 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% Total ACT 411,667 420,321 428,509 436,635 444,651 452,590 40,923 9.9%

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3235.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

(a) - actual

(e) - estimate

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Table 6.2 Population projections by suburb (people), 2017 - 2022

Suburb Actual 2017

ACT Population Projection by Suburb

2018(e) 2019 2020 2021 2022

Aranda 2,463 2,417 2,428 2,444 2,449 2,461 Belconnen 7,124 7,424 7,534 7,639 7,706 7,811 Bruce 7,398 7,381 7,355 7,276 7,166 7,088 Charnwood 2,952 2,906 2,951 3,001 3,037 3,084 Cook 2,868 2,818 2,864 2,913 2,952 3,000 Dunlop 7,238 7,135 7,115 7,104 7,065 7,043 Evatt 5,359 5,276 5,314 5,358 5,382 5,417 Florey 4,823 4,744 4,779 4,822 4,850 4,890 Flynn 3,367 3,312 3,326 3,345 3,352 3,367 Fraser 1,995 1,962 1,976 1,992 2,003 2,017 Ginninderry S3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Giralang 3,348 3,296 3,313 3,334 3,345 3,362 Gooromon 7 7 7 7 7 7

Hawker 2,971 2,921 2,937 2,958 2,971 2,990

Higgins 3,076 3,095 3,195 3,254 3,306 3,318

Holt 4,590 4,519 4,865 5,087 5,294 5,511

Kaleen 7,445 7,326 7,342 7,451 7,549 7,591 Latham 3,665 3,613 3,644 3,680 3,703 3,735 Lawson 705 1,365 1,428 1,494 1,617 1,738 Macgregor 7,037 6,947 6,941 6,946 6,924 6,918 Macquarie 2,788 2,825 2,912 3,005 3,021 3,036 Macnamara 0 0 0 0 0 0 McKellar 2,809 2,765 2,771 2,782 2,784 2,792 Melba 3,173 3,124 3,145 3,170 3,186 3,207 Molonglo Corridor 12 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Page 3,124 3,076 3,093 3,113 3,126 3,144 Scullin 2,988 2,946 2,975 3,009 3,033 3,063 Spence 2,597 2,560 2,574 2,590 2,600 2,613 Strathnairn 0 0 1,343 2,370 3,205 4,374 Weetangera 2,655 2,612 2,614 2,618 2,617 2,618 West Belconnen 15 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a TOTAL - BELCONNEN 98,592 98,371 100,743 102,763 104,250 106,196

Hume 434 466 468 469 468 469

Kowen 38 38 38 37 37 37

Canberra East 792 782 778 777 772 769 Canberra Airport 99 98 101 104 107 110 Majura 181 184 172 160 147 135 TOTAL – CANBERRA EAST 1,544 1,568 1,557 1,548 1,531 1,520 Amaroo 5,784 5,856 5,845 5,872 5,868 5,814 Bonner 7,085 7,050 7,039 6,956 6,835 6,828 Casey 6,356 6,326 6,310 6,210 6,225 6,347 Crace 4,912 4,884 4,877 4,797 4,727 4,688 Forde 4,497 4,471 4,463 4,365 4,238 4,255

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Suburb Actual 2017

ACT Population Projection by Suburb

2018(e) 2019 2020 2021 2022

Franklin 7,060 7,023 6,982 6,946 6,851 6,562

Gungahlin TC 6,339 6,518 6,574 6,642 6,717 6,800

Gungahlin East 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gungahlin West 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hall 281 278 281 285 287 290 Harrison 8,433 8,218 8,062 8,132 8,177 8,480 Jacka 768 840 839 833 830 825 Kenny 9 9 9 9 9 9 Moncrieff 990 2,312 2,167 2,033 1,985 1,938 Mitchell 4 4 4 4 4 4 Ngunnawal 11,001 10,929 10,877 10,843 10,753 10,706 Nicholls 6,955 6,890 6,831 6,782 6,700 6,642 Palmerston 5,614 5,571 5,542 5,523 5,475 5,449 Taylor 0 76 1,603 2,936 3,969 5,004 Throsby 0 700 1,248 1,865 2,471 2,815 TOTAL - GUNGAHLIN 76,088 77,954 79,553 81,032 82,121 83,457 Acton 2,198 2,086 2,117 2,152 2,179 2,229 Ainslie 5,317 5,058 5,073 5,109 5,131 5,153 Black Mountain 0 0 0 0 0 0 Braddon 5,849 5,783 5,761 5,760 5,730 5,730 Campbell 3,451 3,471 3,720 3,976 4,215 4,467 Civic 4,790 4,948 5,715 6,342 7,022 7,732 Dickson 2,318 2,387 2,468 2,600 2,718 2,847 Downer 3,792 3,632 3,657 3,690 3,838 3,933 Duntroon 1,897 1,885 1,805 1,843 1,871 1,907 Hackett 3,032 2,920 2,954 2,992 3,017 3,050 Lyneham 5,448 5,453 5,558 5,677 5,770 5,884 O'Connor 5,753 5,497 5,531 5,576 5,597 5,640 Parkes North 4 4 4 4 4 4 Reid 1,696 1,687 1,686 1,690 1,686 1,689 Russell 3 3 3 3 3 3 Turner 4,239 4,158 4,134 4,133 4,113 4,112 Watson 6,023 5,883 5,984 6,287 6,539 6,776 TOTAL - NORTH CANBERRA 55,810 54,855 56,170 57,833 59,433 61,157 Barton 1,531 1,647 1,549 1,454 1,354 1,259 Deakin 2,964 3,190 3,185 3,186 3,173 3,168 Forrest 1,711 1,871 1,894 1,881 1,879 1,964 Fyshwick 59 59 59 59 59 59 Griffith 4,846 5,335 5,282 5,280 5,255 5,248 Kingston 5,299 6,184 6,162 6,157 6,121 6,111 Lake Burley Griffin 0 0 0 0 0 0 Narrabundah 6,107 6,599 6,626 6,666 6,674 6,704 Parkes South 5 5 5 5 5 5 Red Hill 3,213 3,459 3,427 3,401 3,361 3,331 Yarralumla 3,053 3,307 3,311 3,346 3,348 3,370

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Suburb Actual 2017

ACT Population Projection by Suburb

2018(e) 2019 2020 2021 2022

TOTAL - SOUTH CANBERRA 28,788 31,656 31,499 31,436 31,228 31,219 Banks 4,958 5,107 5,078 5,043 5,007 4,966 Bonython 3,814 3,926 3,928 3,926 3,925 3,920 Calwell 5,775 5,943 5,924 5,900 5,877 5,849 Chisholm 5,179 5,316 5,319 5,316 5,314 5,308 Conder 5,022 5,165 5,128 5,086 5,045 4,997 Fadden 2,946 3,009 3,012 3,011 3,011 3,007 Gilmore 2,764 2,847 2,835 2,819 2,804 2,786 Gordon 7,601 7,834 7,810 7,779 7,749 7,712 Gowrie 3,093 3,179 3,179 3,176 3,173 3,167 Greenway 2,049 2,401 2,652 2,941 3,151 3,359 Isabella Plains 4,398 4,542 4,523 4,500 4,477 4,451 Kambah 14,951 15,344 15,423 15,486 15,552 15,600 Macarthur 1,439 1,476 1,466 1,456 1,446 1,434 Monash 5,413 5,483 5,253 5,017 4,784 4,545 Mount Taylor 3 3 3 3 3 3 Oxley 1,699 1,745 1,747 1,746 1,746 1,744 Richardson 3,034 3,122 3,131 3,136 3,142 3,145 Theodore 3,802 3,913 3,905 3,894 3,881 3,866 Tuggeranong 22 22 22 22 22 22 Wanniassa 7,513 7,717 7,769 7,813 7,856 7,891 Tuggeranong West 15 15 15 15 15 15 TOTAL - TUGGERANONG 85,490 88,109 88,121 88,085 87,979 87,786 Chapman 2,715 2,487 2,502 2,524 2,534 2,554 Duffy 3,197 3,257 3,273 3,293 3,298 3,312 Fisher 2,997 3,027 3,052 3,083 3,099 3,125 Holder 2,630 2,658 2,679 2,704 2,717 2,738 Rivett 3,211 3,242 3,276 3,316 3,342 3,377 Scrivener 3 3 3 3 3 3 Stirling 2,156 2,141 2,142 2,146 2,140 2,141 Waramanga 2,674 2,713 2,734 2,760 2,773 2,794 Weston 3,643 3,729 3,759 3,795 3,819 3,842 TOTAL - WESTON CREEK 23,226 23,257 23,419 23,624 23,724 23,886 Chifley 2,462 2,585 2,609 2,639 2,655 2,681 Curtin 5,322 5,525 5,533 5,551 5,543 5,553 Farrer 3,311 3,467 3,463 3,464 3,448 3,442 Garran 3,590 3,736 3,688 3,646 3,589 3,542 Hughes 3,012 3,160 3,149 3,143 3,124 3,113 Isaacs 2,394 2,479 2,490 2,505 2,509 2,521 Lyons 3,152 3,373 3,465 3,416 3,425 3,447 Mawson 3,319 3,472 3,724 3,947 4,165 4,396 O'Malley 1,051 1,094 1,080 1,068 1,052 1,040 Pearce 2,623 2,718 2,722 2,731 2,728 2,733 Phillip 3,379 3,976 5,167 5,929 6,657 7,375

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Suburb Actual 2017

ACT Population Projection by Suburb

2018(e) 2019 2020 2021 2022

Torrens 2,198 2,282 2,288 2,298 2,298 2,306 TOTAL - WODEN VALLEY 35,813 37,866 39,379 40,337 41,193 42,149 Arboretum 8 8 8 8 8 8 Coombs 2,477 2,128 2,547 2,986 3,348 3,504 Denman Prospect 0 998 1,706 2,416 2,961 3,608 Molonglo 0 0 0 0 0 0 Molonglo S3 5 5 5 5 5 5 Whitlam 0 0 0 584 2,817 3,964 Wright 3,220 2,943 3,200 3,375 3,453 3,534 TOTAL - MOLONGLO 5,710 6,082 7,466 9,374 12,592 14,622 ACT South West 567 564 564 564 561 561 Namadgi 39 39 39 39 38 38 TOTAL - URRIARRA - NAMADGI 606 603 602 603 600 599 UNALLOCATED 0 0 0 0 0 0

TOTAL - ACT 411,667 420,321 428,509 436,635 444,651 452,590

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3235.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. (e) - estimate

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Table 6.3 Population projections by age cohort (people), 2017 - 2022

Age Cohort Actual 2017

Projection Year 2018(e) 2019 2020 2021 2022

0 - 4 28,293 28,739 29,157 29,484 29,870 30,453 5 - 9 26,831 27,624 28,201 28,622 29,035 29,148

10 - 14 23,018 23,938 24,953 26,115 26,884 27,711 15 - 19 24,625 24,656 24,878 25,185 25,874 26,693 20 - 24 33,648 34,194 34,120 34,144 34,157 34,050 25 - 29 34,265 34,993 35,782 36,369 36,794 37,410 30 - 34 34,886 35,218 35,403 35,825 36,270 36,701 35 - 39 31,779 32,945 34,024 34,869 35,562 35,887 40 - 44 28,530 28,756 29,362 30,084 31,090 32,155 45 - 49 27,518 28,378 28,946 29,310 29,205 29,307 50 - 54 24,258 24,410 24,755 25,472 26,447 27,510 55 - 59 22,978 23,193 23,402 23,374 23,386 23,167 60 - 64 19,414 19,695 20,116 20,602 21,029 21,477 65 - 69 17,250 17,390 17,414 17,471 17,701 17,960 70 - 74 13,256 14,273 15,055 15,725 16,139 16,050 75 - 79 8,920 9,290 9,819 10,356 11,091 12,147 80 - 84 6,038 6,345 6,652 6,947 7,222 7,620

85+ 6,160 6,284 6,470 6,681 6,895 7,144 Total 411,667 420,321 428,509 436,635 444,651 452,590

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3235.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. (e) - estimate

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Table 6.4 Population projections by age cohort (Males), 2017 - 2022

Age Cohort Actual 2017

Projection Year 2018(e) 2019 2020 2021 2022

0 - 4 14,660 14,853 15,002 15,136 15,314 15,591 5 - 9 13,948 14,274 14,572 14,776 14,938 14,954

10 - 14 11,891 12,385 12,903 13,496 13,895 14,314 15 - 19 12,429 12,568 12,759 12,944 13,312 13,786 20 - 24 16,868 17,189 17,266 17,349 17,414 17,381 25 - 29 16,984 17,447 17,853 18,229 18,495 18,843 30 - 34 17,210 17,328 17,400 17,664 17,971 18,318 35 - 39 15,886 16,491 16,994 17,399 17,703 17,833 40 - 44 14,272 14,525 14,898 15,192 15,689 16,184 45 - 49 13,663 13,976 14,306 14,490 14,436 14,540 50 - 54 11,836 11,957 12,127 12,587 13,169 13,673 55 - 59 11,174 11,314 11,444 11,388 11,351 11,273 60 - 64 9,283 9,432 9,578 9,860 10,118 10,336 65 - 69 8,218 8,247 8,261 8,209 8,297 8,443 70 - 74 6,324 6,791 7,151 7,474 7,574 7,443 75 - 79 4,141 4,323 4,540 4,775 5,197 5,696 80 - 84 2,647 2,810 2,973 3,105 3,195 3,406

85+ 2,352 2,419 2,514 2,641 2,755 2,868 Total 203,786 208,329 212,541 216,714 220,823 224,882

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3235.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. (e) - estimate

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Table 6.5 Population projections by age cohort (Females), 2017 - 2022

Age Cohort Actual 2017

Projection Year 2018(e) 2019 2020 2021 2022

0 - 4 13,633 13,886 14,155 14,348 14,556 14,862 5 - 9 12,883 13,350 13,629 13,846 14,097 14,194

10 - 14 11,127 11,553 12,050 12,619 12,989 13,397 15 - 19 12,196 12,088 12,119 12,241 12,562 12,907 20 - 24 16,780 17,005 16,854 16,795 16,743 16,669 25 - 29 17,281 17,546 17,929 18,140 18,299 18,567 30 - 34 17,676 17,890 18,003 18,161 18,299 18,383 35 - 39 15,893 16,454 17,030 17,470 17,859 18,054 40 - 44 14,258 14,231 14,464 14,892 15,401 15,971 45 - 49 13,855 14,402 14,640 14,820 14,769 14,767 50 - 54 12,422 12,453 12,628 12,885 13,278 13,837 55 - 59 11,804 11,879 11,958 11,986 12,035 11,894 60 - 64 10,131 10,263 10,538 10,742 10,911 11,141 65 - 69 9,032 9,143 9,153 9,262 9,404 9,517 70 - 74 6,932 7,482 7,904 8,251 8,565 8,607 75 - 79 4,779 4,967 5,279 5,581 5,894 6,451 80 - 84 3,391 3,535 3,679 3,842 4,027 4,214

85+ 3,808 3,865 3,956 4,040 4,140 4,276 Total 207,881 211,992 215,968 219,921 223,828 227,708

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3235.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. (e) - estimate

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Table 6.6 Population projections by age cohort and by sex, 2017 - 2058

Year Projected ACT Population Growth

Male Female People Males Females People

People Per cent 0-14 15-64 65+ 0-14 15-64 65+ 0-14 15-64 65+

2017(a) 203,786 207,881 411,667 40,499 139,605 23,682 37,643 142,296 27,942 78,142 281,901 51,624 2018(e) 208,329 211,992 420,321 41,512 142,227 24,590 38,789 144,211 28,992 80,301 286,438 53,582 8,654 2.1%

2019 212,541 215,968 428,509 42,477 144,625 25,439 39,834 146,163 29,971 82,311 290,788 55,410 8,188 1.9% 2020 216,714 219,921 436,635 43,408 147,102 26,204 40,813 148,132 30,976 84,221 295,234 57,180 8,126 1.9% 2021 220,823 223,828 444,651 44,147 149,658 27,018 41,642 150,156 32,030 85,789 299,814 59,048 8,016 1.8% 2022 224,882 227,708 452,590 44,859 152,167 27,856 42,453 152,190 33,065 87,312 304,357 60,921 7,939 1.8% 2023 228,892 231,548 460,440 45,482 154,695 28,715 43,198 154,236 34,113 88,680 308,931 62,828 7,850 1.7% 2024 232,839 235,356 468,195 46,060 157,262 29,517 43,849 156,315 35,192 89,909 313,577 64,709 7,755 1.7% 2025 236,732 239,124 475,856 46,527 159,841 30,364 44,364 158,525 36,235 90,891 318,366 66,599 7,661 1.6% 2026 240,558 242,851 483,409 46,979 162,346 31,233 44,910 160,645 37,296 91,889 322,991 68,529 7,552 1.6% 2027 244,322 246,528 490,850 47,383 164,868 32,071 45,392 162,761 38,375 92,775 327,629 70,446 7,441 1.5% 2028 248,022 250,145 498,167 47,794 167,397 32,831 45,793 165,034 39,318 93,587 332,431 72,149 7,317 1.5% 2029 251,652 253,708 505,360 48,192 169,902 33,558 46,256 167,167 40,286 94,448 337,069 73,844 7,193 1.4% 2030 255,241 257,242 512,483 48,558 172,519 34,164 46,648 169,436 41,158 95,206 341,955 75,322 7,122 1.4% 2031 258,798 260,738 519,536 48,926 175,085 34,787 47,030 171,668 42,040 95,956 346,753 76,827 7,053 1.4% 2032 262,319 264,206 526,525 49,390 177,570 35,359 47,504 173,906 42,795 96,894 351,476 78,154 6,989 1.3% 2033 265,810 267,639 533,449 49,787 180,037 35,986 47,880 176,210 43,549 97,667 356,247 79,535 6,924 1.3% 2034 269,278 271,038 540,316 50,163 182,483 36,632 48,239 178,379 44,420 98,402 360,862 81,052 6,867 1.3% 2035 272,722 274,412 547,134 50,525 184,831 37,366 48,586 180,558 45,267 99,111 365,389 82,633 6,818 1.3% 2036 276,161 277,753 553,914 50,885 187,053 38,223 48,926 182,585 46,242 99,811 369,638 84,465 6,780 1.2% 2037 279,591 281,073 560,664 51,248 189,363 38,980 49,269 184,623 47,180 100,517 373,986 86,160 6,749 1.2% 2038 283,009 284,386 567,395 51,623 191,749 39,637 49,625 186,707 48,054 101,248 378,456 87,691 6,731 1.2% 2039 286,430 287,687 574,117 52,013 194,115 40,302 49,991 188,872 48,824 102,004 382,987 89,126 6,722 1.2% 2040 289,853 290,985 580,838 52,418 196,493 40,942 50,375 191,088 49,521 102,793 387,581 90,463 6,721 1.2%

42

Year Projected ACT Population Growth

Male Female People Males Females People People Per cent1

0-14 15-64 65+ 0-14 15-64 65+ 0-14 15-64 65+ 2041 293,290 294,275 587,565 52,847 198,907 41,536 50,781 193,323 50,171 103,628 392,230 91,707 6,727 1.2% 2042 296,740 297,567 594,307 53,305 201,297 42,138 51,218 195,508 50,841 104,523 396,805 92,979 6,742 1.1% 2043 300,200 300,865 601,065 53,793 203,676 42,731 51,683 197,710 51,472 105,476 401,386 94,203 6,758 1.1% 2044 303,681 304,160 607,841 54,306 205,944 43,431 52,175 199,801 52,184 106,481 405,745 95,615 6,776 1.1% 2045 307,170 307,463 614,633 54,850 208,179 44,141 52,694 201,783 52,987 107,544 409,962 97,128 6,793 1.1% 2046 310,669 310,772 621,441 55,421 210,293 44,955 53,240 203,696 53,836 108,661 413,989 98,791 6,808 1.1% 2047 314,185 314,077 628,262 56,014 212,363 45,808 53,807 205,499 54,771 109,821 417,862 100,579 6,821 1.1% 2048 317,702 317,391 635,093 56,625 214,355 46,722 54,393 207,293 55,705 111,018 421,648 102,427 6,831 1.1% 2049 321,221 320,710 641,931 57,249 216,295 47,677 54,995 208,998 56,717 112,244 425,293 104,394 6,838 1.1% 2050 324,747 324,027 648,774 57,884 218,270 48,593 55,604 210,686 57,737 113,488 428,956 106,330 6,843 1.1% 2051 328,271 327,349 655,620 58,523 220,206 49,542 56,216 212,357 58,776 114,739 432,563 108,318 6,846 1.1% 2052 331,793 330,673 662,466 59,164 222,191 50,438 56,828 214,056 59,789 115,992 436,247 110,227 6,846 1.0% 2053 335,309 334,002 669,311 59,799 224,126 51,384 57,433 215,753 60,816 117,232 439,879 112,200 6,845 1.0% 2054 338,819 337,332 676,151 60,421 226,040 52,358 58,033 217,425 61,874 118,454 443,465 114,232 6,840 1.0% 2055 342,329 340,657 682,986 61,031 227,909 53,389 58,614 219,057 62,986 119,645 446,966 116,375 6,834 1.0% 2056 345,833 343,977 689,810 61,629 229,781 54,423 59,180 220,731 64,066 120,809 450,512 118,489 6,825 1.0% 2057 349,327 347,296 696,623 62,206 231,706 55,415 59,731 222,489 65,076 121,937 454,195 120,491 6,813 1.0% 2058 352,813 350,609 703,422 62,768 233,613 56,432 60,267 224,246 66,096 123,035 457,859 122,528 6,798 1.0%

Source: ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

(a) - actual

(e) - estimate 1The long run decline in the annual percentage population growth rate is largely due to the assumption of a fixed immigration intake going forward. This results in the ACT’s share of this fixed number being a

declining share of the existing population base.