Act Now: An Incremental Implementation of an Activity-Based Model System in Puget Sound
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Act Now:An Incremental Implementation of an
Activity-Based Model System in Puget Sound
Presented to:12th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications
ConferenceMay 19, 2009
Presented by:Maren Outwater, PSRC
Chris Johnson, PSRCMark BradleyJohn Bowman
Joe Castiglione
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PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
PSRC model development strategy Activity-based models Activity generator technical approach Model calibration & validation Model application
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PROJECT CONTEXT:PSRC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Short-Range•Expand time periods•Expand purposes•Expand modes•Calibrate
Long-Range•Dynamic traffic assignment•Continuous time•Weekend•Scenario evaluation tool
Mid-Range•Develop activity-based travel demand model•Replace land use models•Integrate economic, land use, activity-based models•Benefit-Cost Analysis Tool•EPA MOVES/Mobile models
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4-STEP MODEL LIMITATIONS
Insensitive to Interactions among trips, tours (trip chains) Interactions among persons in HH
Aggregation biases Demographic / market segmentation Temporal Spatial
Unable to answer key policy questions Insensitive in trip generation to pricing and
climate change policies
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ACTIVITY-BASED MODELS ADVANTAGES
Better policy sensitivities Broader More behaviorally accurate
Consistency Within person-day of travel Across persons in a household
More detailed information Travel choices Impacts on travelers
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ACTIVITY-BASED MODEL PROJECTS IN THE U.S.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
San Francisco County (SFCTA)
Use
Tune
Build
KEY
Portland (Metro)
New York (NYMTC)
Columbus (MORPC)
Sacramento (SACOG)
Lake Tahoe
Atlanta (ARC)
Denver (DRCOG)
San Diego (SANDAG)
Seattle (PSRC)
San Francisco Bay Area (MTC)
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AN INCREMENTALAPPROACH
Replace parts of trip generation with activity-generator
Integrate with current and new models Build upon PSRC model design,
enhancement and development efforts Implement quickly
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PSRC MODEL SYSTEM
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INTEGRATE W/ CURRENT MODEL
Land Use Allocation (Urbansim) Synthetic population Usual workplace
location
Zonal Data Distribution
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Policy Sensitivity Transportation Land use
Induced/suppressed demand (accessibility via logsums)
Broader set of HH and individual attributes incorporated
Transition to full activity-based model
KEY FEATURES
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ACTIVITY PURPOSES
Work Usual & other
School By age group
Escort (pick up / drop off) Shopping Personal business Meal Social / recreational
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2006 HH Survey Processed into tours, trips, activity patterns Expanded, re-weighted
Discrete choice logit models Vehicle availability Out-of-home activity purposes Number of primary tours Number of work-based tours Number, sequence, purpose of intermediate stops
ESTIMATION
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IMPLEMENTATION
Microsimulation models Household vehicle availability Person activity generation
Stochastic application for all HHs / persons in synthetic sample
Initially in Delphi, translated to Python Integration into overall model runstream
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ACCESSIBILITY MEASURES:MODE & DESTINATION CHOICE LOGSUMS
Pre-calculated by Activity Generator Mode choice logsums
Based on existing trip-based mode choice models Segmented by purpose, income, auto availability Used in destination choice modes
Destination choice logsums Activity Generator uses destination choice models to pre-
calculate mode/destination accessibility logsums for residence zones.
Re-calculated at beginning of each global feedback iteration
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SYNTHETIC POPULATION
Synthetic population input to vehicle availability and activity generator model
Produced by Urbansim (also predicts usual work locations)
Based on 2000 Census PUMS Distributions regionally controlled:
Household size (1,2,3,4+)
Household workers (0,1,2,3+)
Household income (<$30K, $30K-$60K, $60K-$100K,>$100K)
3.45 million regional residents
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SYNTHETIC POPULATION:CALIBRATION & VALIDATION
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Full-timeworker
Part-timeworker
Retired Non-worker Universitystudent
Student 16+ Student 5-15 Person under5
Person Type
Tota
l Pe
rso
ns
SurveySynthetic Pop
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VEHICLE AVAILABILITY
Predict number of motorized vehicles used by household (own, lease, other) 0,1,2,3,4+
Key inputs HH attributes Home-work mode choice logsums Usual work location accessibility information Residence location accessibility information Vehicles vs. potential drivers
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VEHICLE AVAILABILITY:CALIBRATION & VALIDATION
Observed data: 2006 PSRC Household Survey
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DAY PATTERN MODEL Jointly predicts for each person:
Number of tours by purpose Occurrence of additional stops by purpose
Allow substitution between making additional tours and additional stops
Balance between person-day-level and tour-level sensitivities Example: Shopping Good access to stores -> spread shopping across
multiple stops and multiple tours Poor access to stores -> concentrate shopping
within fewer stops
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DAY PATTERN MODEL Key inputs
HH attributes Person attributes Residence land use and accessibility Workplace land use and accessibility
Utility components Purpose-specific More tours and stops, regardless of purpose Purpose interaction effects
• Tours and tours• Tours and stops• Stops and stops
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DAY PATTERN MODEL
Exact number of tours by purpose Number and purpose of work-based
subtours Number and purpose of
intermediate stops Usual workplace location vs other
work location
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INTEGRATION WITH
4-STEP PROCESS
Activity generator replaces parts of trip generation step
Integrated into model system run stream as an executable
Activity generator outputs are converted to trip arrays for use in subsequent use in distribution, mode choice, assignment
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INTEGRATION WITH
4-STEP PROCESS Activity-based model outputs converted to
trip-based model trip purposes HB Work HB School HB College HB Shop HB Other NHB Work : simple “origin choice” models predict
production end NHB Other: simple “origin choice” models predict
production end
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ACTIVITY GENERATOR:CALIBRATION & VALIDATION
Goals Replication of key aspects of travel Reasonable regional network assignment
results GPS-adjusted targets
Under-reporting of trips in HH survey HH subsample vehicle-based GPS
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Adjust for under-reporting of travel Limitations
Vehicle-based trips and HHs only Missing purpose information
Model developed to predict probability that given type of trip was missing Binary logit Based on HH and trip attributes Probability converted into adjustment
factor Factors constrained
ACTIVITY GENERATOR:GPS ADJUSTMENTS
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ACTIVITY GENERATOR:GPS ADJUSTED TRIPS
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ACTIVITY GENERATOR:TRIP GENERATION vs. ACTIVITY GENERATION
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ACTIVITY GENERATOR:CALIBRATION & VALIDATION
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ACTIVITY GENERATOR:CALIBRATION & VALIDATION
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MODEL APPLICATION:TRANSPORTATION 2040
Regional Transportation Plan update Integrated model system
Puget Sound Economic Forecasting model Urbansim Activity Generator-enhanced 4-step model
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TRANSPORTATION 2040:ALTERNATIVES
Alt 1: Existing system efficiency Alt 2: Capital improvements Alt 3: Core network expansion and
efficiency Alt 4: Transportation system management Alt 5: Accessibility and reduced carbon
emissions
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TRANSPORTATION 2040:ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
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TRANSPORTATION 2040:EVALUATION CRITERIA
Mobility Finance Growth Management Economic Prosperity Environmental Stewardship Quality of Life Equity
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TRANSPORTATION 2040:VEHICLE AVAILABILITY
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TRANSPORTATION 2040:ACTIVITY GENERATION
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TRANSPORTATION 2040:VEHICLE AVAILABILITY & ACTIVITY GENERATION
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CONCLUSIONS
Activity generator can replace trip generation in a 4-step model
Data requirements comparable to traditional trip generation
Can be implemented and calibrated quickly and efficiently
Provides enhanced model sensitivities, though effects were modest