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Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
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Transcript of Achieving Replacement Level Fertility: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment 3
December 9, 2013
Richard Waite, Associate, Food, Forests and Water Program Photo Source: EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection
CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE:ACHIEVING REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY
• The food challenge and menu of solutions
• Population, food security, and environment: Focus on Africa
• Effective approaches to reducing fertility rates
Agenda
HOW CAN THE WORLD FEED MORE THAN 9 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050 IN A MANNER THAT
ADVANCES DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCES PRESSURE ON THE ENVIRONMENT?
Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards
2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
The world needs to close the food gap
Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at:
<http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012).
The world needs agriculture to support economic development
The world needs to reduce agriculture’s environmental impactShare of global impact (percent in 2010)
Source: WRI analysis based on IEA (2012); EIA (2012); EPA (2012); Houghton (2008); FAO (2011); FAO (2012); Foley et al. (2005).
7070
100% = 3862 km3 H2O
2437
100% = 49 Gt CO2e 100% = 13.3 bn ha
WATER WITHDRAWAL
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
EARTH’S LANDMASS (EX-ANTARCTICA)
A menu of solutions is required to sustainably close the food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
Illustrative
Consumption Reduce food loss and waste Shift to healthier diets Achieve replacement level fertility Reduce biofuel demand for food crops
Production Sustainably increase crop yields
- Boost yields through attentive crop breeding- Improve soil and water management- Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands
Sustainably increase productivity of livestock- Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands- Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch- Increase productivity of aquaculture
Menu for a sustainable food future (Preliminary)
Menu for a sustainable food future
Contributes to feeding everyone in 2050 while satisfying (or not negatively impacting) a number of criteria:
Poverty alleviation
Gender
Ecosystems
Climate
Water
Photo source: Andrew So.
The world’s population is projected to grow from about 7 billion people in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion in 2050, with half of growth in sub-Saharan AfricaPopulation (in billions)
Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa.
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total population by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.
All regions except sub-Saharan Africa are projected to reach replacement level fertility by 2050Total fertility rate
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total fertility by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.
Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa.
1.5
25% population undernourished
tons/hectare - cereal yields
Source: FAO, WFP and IFAD (2013), WRI analysis based on FAOSTAT (2012), WRI analysis based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).
Population, food security and environment in sub-Saharan Africa: a perfect storm?
25% cereals imported
High population growth will create a large “food gap” in sub-Saharan AfricaGlobal annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food
availability needed
660
2,380
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
Achieving replacement level fertility could help close the global 2050 food gapGlobal annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food
availability needed
9,500
16,000
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
Reduced demand (worldwide
replacement level fertility)
10%
Achieving replacement level fertility could help close sub-Saharan Africa’s 2050 food gapGlobal annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
2006 - food availability 2050 - baseline food
availability needed
660
2,380
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
Reduced demand (worldwide
replacement level fertility)
25%
Achieving replacement level fertility can bring about a “demographic dividend”
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
Singapore
Hong Kong
South Korea
Taiwan
Achieving replacement level fertility can avoid additional environmental impacts from agriculture
Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Fertility rate, total (births per woman).” Data retrieved November 30, 2012, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.
Total fertility rates can decline rapidlyTotal fertility rate
Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest total fertility ratesTotal fertility rate (2005–2010)
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations.
Photo Source: Travis Lupick.
Approach 1: Educate girls
Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest total share of women with at least lower secondary educationPercent of women ages 20–39 with at least lower secondary education (2005–2010)
Source: Harper, S. 2012. “People and the planet.” University of Oxford. Presentation at The Royal Society, London, April 2012.
Photo Source: UK Department for International Development (DFID).
Approach 2: Reduce child and infant mortality
Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest child mortality ratesMortality of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births (2005–2010)
Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.
Photo Source: Travis Lupick.
Approach 3: Increase access to reproductive health services, including family planning
Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest share of women using contraceptionPercent of women ages 15–49 using contraception (2005–2010)
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