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ACG Research Service Provider Market Analysis - · PDF fileInfinera Xceed Xceed Multi-layer...
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www.acgcc.com ACG RESEARCH Intelligent Networking Service Provider Transport/Multi-Layer SDN Q3-2016 Tim Doiron [email protected] www.acgcc.com Twitter: @doirontim
Transcript of ACG Research Service Provider Market Analysis - · PDF fileInfinera Xceed Xceed Multi-layer...
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ACG RESEARCHIntelligent Networking
Service Provider Transport/Multi-Layer SDN
Q3-2016Tim [email protected]: @doirontim
www.acgcc.com
Report Context
• Qualitative analysis and interpretation of developments in the market for SP Transport/Multi-Layer SDN solutions in 3Q-2016
• Slides complement the quantitative analysis of vendors’ results achieved in Q3 2016 and contained in the companion SP ML SDN WW Market Report for Q3 2016
• Observations and perspectives here highlight top factors influencing the adoption and deployment of SDN in transport networks
• To arrange discussion of any of the topics contained in the report with Tim Doiron (principal analyst for this research) contact him at [email protected] or via Karen Grenier, VP of operations for ACG, at [email protected]
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Agenda
• Segmentation & Performance
• Layer 123 SDN World Congress
• Trends
• Use-cases & Announcements
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Transport/ML-SDN Segmentation
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Companies by Segmentation
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-ADVA -Accedian -Cisco -Cisco -Ciena -Cisco
-BTI -ADVA -Contextream -Coriant -Coriant -Huawei
-Ciena -Ceragon -Coriant -Huawei -Ekinops -Juniper
-Cisco -Ciena -Ericsson -Juniper -Huawei -Nokia(ALU)
-Coriant -Cisco -HPE -Nokia(ALU) -Infinera -Sedona Systems
-Cyan -Coriant -Huawei -ZTE -NEC -ZTE
-ECI -Cyan -Juniper -Nokia(ALU)
-Ekinops -ECI -Nokia(ALU) -Sedona Systems
-Fujitsu -Fujitsu -Sedona Systems -ZTE
-Huawei -HPE
-Infinera -Huawei
-Juniper -Juniper
-MRV -NEC
-NEC -Nokia(ALU)
-Nokia(ALU) -Overture
-Sedona Systems -ZTE
-ZTE
SP Multilayer Software
Defined Network (SDN)
Core LH Core IP
Metro Multilayer
SDN Edge Multilayer SDN Core Multilayer SDN
Metro Optical Metro Ethernet Edge ESER Edge MSER
* Note that companies that have been acquired will continue to show up on the vendor list for the following three quarters post acquisition.
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Transport/ML-SDN Controllers
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Company Product Name Controller Software ONOS ODL Notes/Status
Adva Ensemble Suite Ensemble Controller X 20 active customer engagements
Ciena Blue Planet Multi-domain Service Orchestration (BP ONOS Controller)
X Windstream, CenturyLink, Orange
Cisco Open Network Architecture
Network Service Orchestrator (NSO) WAN Automation Engine (WAE)
X X Colt: IOS XR and WAE for 100G
Coriant Transcend Coriant Transcend SDN Transport Controller Coriant Transcend SDN Packet Controller
Ericsson Ericsson Ericsson SDN Controller X
Fujitsu Virtuora Virtuora SDN Controller X X SDN/NFV Pro Svcs.
HPE ContexNet ContexNet Software X
Huawei SoftComAgile 3.0
SoftCom SDN ControllerAgile Controller 3.0 (controller hierarchy)
X X Baidu deploy China’s 1st
DCI SDN
Infinera Xceed Xceed Multi-layer SDN Controller X Windstream use
Juniper NorthStar NorthStar Controller
NEC NEC/Netcracker Netcracker SDN controller X X
Nokia (ALU) NSP Network Services Platform (NSP) X Globe, China Telecom
Sedona Systems MCS Multilayer Control System (MCS) OIF T-API SDN Participant
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Q3 2016 Transport/ML-SDN Observations
• Transport/ML-SDN up 15% q-q, driven by increasing SDN enabled equipment shipmentso Cisco #1 across the board, Nokia overall #2 and Juniper back into overall #3
o Huawei returning to #4 after coming off blistering optical sales in 2Q
o Ciena retains #3 Metro segment and overall #5
• SDN Control and Application software revenue remains modesto < 6% of SDN enabled elements
o Ciena BP: 2016 is engagement year with revenue ramp in 2017: 13 customers including Windstream, CenturyLink and Orange
o Adva Ensemble: 2016 actively engaged with 20 customers
• Transport/ML-SDN deployments in early stageso Cisco IOS XR/WAE and Colt w. 100G upgrade for cloud-scale digital services
o Nokia & Globe (Philippines) with Carrier SDN, IP & Optical
o Ciena BP & Windstream multi-vendor wavelength service automation
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Transport ML-SDN
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SDN Metro SDN Edge SDN Core SDNSDN Control
Software
Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco
33.5% 23.6% 52.9% 17.5% 37.6%Q-Q ($) Point+/- 0.5 1.0 -1.0 -0.1 0.0Y-Y ($) Point+/- -2.4 -1.1 -0.8 -6.4 -1.7
Nokia(ALU) Huawei Nokia(ALU) Huawei Nokia(ALU)
16.4% 15.1% 24.9% 15.9% 23.4%Q-Q ($) Point+/- -0.1 -1.9 1.0 -1.2 -0.4Y-Y ($) Point+/- -0.6 5.2 1.5 6.4 0.2
Juniper Ciena Juniper Juniper Juniper
11.2% 14.9% 16.3% 14.1% 9.4%Q-Q ($) Point+/- 0.4 1.8 0.0 2.2 0.3Y-Y ($) Point+/- 0.8 4.4 0.0 0.6 0.3
#3
#1
#2
Market Shares of Leading Vendors
3Q 2016 Worldwide
Source: 2016 ACG Research
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Agenda
• Segmentation & performance
• Layer 123 SDN World Congress
• Trends
• Use-cases & Announcements
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Top 2016 SDN World Congress ObservationsThe Hague, Netherlands Oct. 9–14, 2016
• All CSPs have uCPE/vCPE/SD-WAN deployments (other SDN/NFV as well): China Unicom, BT, Colt, DT, KPN, NTT, Orange, Telefonica, VZ, Vodafone
• Common data modeling for all (including IP/Optical): TOSCA templates, YANG modeling, unified networking topology
• Service assurance increasing in importance: Nokia NSP SA announcement, Netrounds partners w. NEC/Netcracker
• Automation is at the fore of next-generation networks: Shawn Hakl, VZ, the network cannot take 120 days to deliver when the cloud service is self-provisioned in 15 minutes; the network has to get out of the way
• Moving beyond technology to organizational transformations: KPN presentation on people/process evolution in SDN/NFV world
• Inter-SP and inter-network coordination and collaboration increasing: MEF LSO with Colt & AT&T SDN E-NNI, AT&T & Orange E-COMP testing
• Moving from Cloud ready to Cloud Native (containers, micro-services, etc.)
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Agenda
• Segmentation & performance
• Layer 123 SDN World Congress
• Trends
• Use-cases & Announcements
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Service Orchestration, NFV and SDNA Collaborative Relationship
Service Orchestration
NFVSDN
Service orchestration identifies end-to-end physical and virtual resource needs, NFV instantiates the virtual elements,
SDN controls them
Service Definitions
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Transport ML-SDN Trends
• Mergers, acquisitions and partnerships (and IPOs): Filling SDN and NFV portfolio gaps including control/orchestration
• Coherent DWDM and SDN enable programmable underlay: 100 G, 200 G and beyond
• The rise of the white box: Not just switches, but optical too
• Even more open-source collaboration: ONOS, ODL, Open Contrailall part of OPNFV Colorado release
• Standards closing the gaps: OIF, IETF, etc.
• Segment routing momentum is a leading indicator for SDN:Simplify the network, reduce protocols, enable centralized control
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Trends: M&A & IPO Activity (1/3)
• Broadcom November 2016: Intent to acquire Brocade for $5.9 billion
o Key Driver: Broadcom to keep SAN storage business (storage market consolidation)
o Key Driver: Selling IP Networking to avoid competition with switch vendors
• Inphi November 2016: Intent to acquire ClariPhy Communications for $275 million
o Key Driver: Add Coherent DSP technology to Inphi’s optical/driver/TIA portfolio
o Key Driver: Broaden Inphi’s coherent portfolio (potentially broader than Acacia)
• Windstream November 2016: Intent for Windstream and Earthlink merger for $1.1 billion
o Key Driver: Expanded USA footprint including 145,000 fiber route miles
o Key Driver: Expanded Enterprise service offerings including Earthlink’s SD-WAN solution from VeloCloud
• AT&T October 2016: Intent to acquire Time Warner for $85 billion + $23 billion in debt: Key Driver: AT&T own content (beyond connections) for broad/mobile distribution
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2016 M&A ActivityCSPs: seek global/expanded reach and targeted vertical integration
SDN/NFV: customer breadth, SDN/NFV software control and expansionOptical: combine optics and DSP, key technologies such as SiPH
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Trends: M&A & IPO Activity (2/3)
• CenturyLink October 2016: Intent to acquire Level 3 for $35 billion
o Key Driver: A fiber-rich, global expansion to better serve enterprise customers
o Key Driver: Expand broadband/fiber reach and speed for consumer & SMB markets
• Verizon August 2016: Acquiring (deal now closed) Fleetmatics for $2.4 billion cash
o Key Driver: VZ owning vertical services in Industrial IoT market (beyond connections)
o Telematics division also purchased Telogis earlier in the year (IoT vehicles/enterprise)
• Juniper August 2016: Acquisition of Aurrion Networks Silicon Photonics (SiPh)
o Key Technology: Bonding InPh (e.g. optical lasers) onto SiPh for integrated solution
o Juniper quotation: “fundamental and permanent improvements in cost per bit-per-second, power per bit-per-second, bandwidth density, and flexibility....”
• Acacia IPO May 2016: Market CAP $2.9B on Nov 22, 2016 (up from $1 billion in Q1 report)
o A positive sign and valuation for optical industry as a whole
o Note: Some healthy cooling as Market CAP was $4 billion on Aug 22, 2016
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Trends: M&A & IPO Activity (3/3)
• Juniper 1Q/16: BTI deal closed on April 1, 2016: BTI revenue nowreported as Juniper beginning Q2-2016
• Adva 1Q/16: Acquires Overture: Ensemble software divisionannounced: SDN & NFV
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Trends: Advanced Coherent TechnologyEnabling Programmable Optical Underlay
• Ciena Wavelogic Ai Programmable Coherent Modem: Oct. 2016 (2Q-2017 available)
o Capable of supporting 400G single carrier (100G to 400G in 50G increments)
o Up to 14,000km (200G) reach for submarine applications
• AT&T to Perform 3-Phased 400 Gb/s Trial starting in early 2017: Oct. 2016
o Phase 1: Coriant testing with 2x200G tightly spaced wavelengths (Long Haul)
o Phase 2: Using Ciena 1x400G single wavelength (Metro)
• Nokia Bell Labs, DT and Technical University of Munich Achieve 1 Tb/s rate: Sept 2016
o Approaching the Shannon Limit for the fiber link
o Advanced Probabilistic Constellation Shaping (PCS) with QAM modulation
• Nokia and Orange Poland 1.5 Tb/s Super Channel over 870 km: July 2016: 6 x 250 Gb/scarriers with 16 QAM modulation and 50GHz ITU-T grid channels
• Ciena 300G w. Waveserver Wavelogic 3 Extreme Chipset: Q2-2016
o 8QAM modulation used to deliver 150 Gb/s over 1,440 km
o QPSK, 8QAM, 16QAM all available on Waveserver mid-2016
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Programmable 200G+ optics with higher modulation, advanced coherent toolkits and SDN control
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Trends: Emergence of White Box
• TIP announces Voyager white-box optical solution in Nov. 2016o Converged optical transponder and IP/MPLS layered product
o Adva and Coriant announce public support
o Open Question: what is software source and distribution model?
• CORD becomes an open source Linux Foundation project in August 2016o Google, Samsung and others joining (expanding beyond traditional Telecom SPs)
o First CORD Summit July 29 at Google Sunnyvale, CA campus
• Lumentum & Infinera Interoperability/Integration August 2016 Press Releaseo Interop: Infinera Coherent DWDM over Lumentum ROADM Open Line System
Included: QPSK, 8QAM, 16QAM, & Infinera’s Infinite Capacity Engine
o Lumentum White Boxes: ROADM, Mux, Demux, terminal/line amplifiers
• Telecom Infra project (TIP) announced: Access, backhaul, core & management (DWDM/Optical in backhaul (Facebook/Equinix chair)
• Open ROADM announced at OFC: Ciena, Fujitsu, Nokia, AT&T, SK Telecom, Orange
White box solutions tied with SDN enablement/control
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Trends: Even More Open Source (1/2)
• ONF and ON.Lab Merging (New name is ONF )o Guru Parulkar, Executive Director ON.Lab, new leader
o ONF legacy part continues to curate OpenFlow specifications Also “could look” at alternatives like P4 for programming the forwarding plane
• ONOS and CORD open-source software projects continue o ONOS partnered Linux Foundation collaborative project 4Q-2015
o CORD partnered Linux Foundation collaborative project in mid 2016
• Note: Merger not complete until August 2017
• OPNFV Colorado 3.0 released in December (1.0 in Sept.)o OpenDaylight, ONOS and OpenContrail
o Security enhanced with Core Infrastructure Initiative (CII) Badge
o Enhanced IPv6 for IPv6-only deployments and full underlay/overlay
o Service-function chaining (SFC) across nodes & VNFM installation
o Multiple target hardware with X.86 and ARM support
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Trends: Even More Open Source (2/2)
• ODL Boron (5th release) Septembero YangIDE to view/edit Yang models
o Cardinal–ODL Monitoring as a Service (for remote NMS)
• ONOS Hummingbird (8th release) September / Decembero Comcast Cable joins ONOS and CORD - December
o Huawei commits Yang modeling / launches Agile Controller 3.0
• Multi-SBI support increasing across all controllerso NetConf/Yang, BGP-LS, TL1, OpenFlow, PCEP, SNMP
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Trends: Standards Closing the Gaps (1/2)
• IETF Service Function Chaining and Data Modeling Areas Highly Active
o Working Group (WG): Service Function Chaining (sfc)
o WG: Netconf Data Modeling Language (netmod)
o WG: Network Configuration (netconf)
• MEF Life-cycle Orchestration (LSO)/end-to-end automation of 3rd network serviceso An Industry Initiative for Third Generation Network and Services (Nov. 2016 at MEF 16)
Collaborative report: MEF, ON.Lab, ONOS, Open-O, ODL, ONF, OPNFV, TM Forum
o LSO Reference Architecture & Framework (MEF 55) (Mar. 2016)
• OIF SDN Demo, Flexible Ethernet & Coherent Optics Framework
o SDN Transport API Interoperability Demonstration Builds upon testing done in 2014 demonstration process
SPs: China Telcom, China Unicom, SK Telecom, Telefonica, Verizon
Vendors: Adva, Ciena, Coriant, FiberHome, Huawei, Infinera, Juniper, NEC, Sedona Systems, ZTE
Carrier-hosted lab testing: Q4-2016
Target Readouts: Q1-2017, public results presentation at OFC 2017 in March
o In Process: Transport API Implementation Agreements
o In Process: Virtual Transport Network Service Definition
o In Process: Transport SDN Toolkit
o FlexE implementation agreement (Mar. 2016)
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Trends: Standards Closing the Gaps (2/2)
• ONF–Transport SDN APIs, Mobile PoCs and Open-Source SW Distributiono Project Boulder Launched: Intent-based NBIs for SDN Controllers
Launched in ONF using Yang model as desire to be agnostic to controller type
o Three Mobile Transport SDN PoCs completed in 2016 (November)
o Project SNOWMASS: OpenSource SDN Repository for TAPI Functional Requirements for Transport API (TAPI)
UML/YANG/JSON models in draft
• Atrium 2016/A–2nd release, OpenDaylight integration
o OpenFlow, ODL, ONOS bundle
• TM Forum–Open APIs and Best Practiceso TM Forum launches ZOOM–Zero-Touch Orchestration, Operations & Management
(SDN/NFV best practices as blueprint) (July 2016)
o Open API Map with Vodafone and Huawei (May 2016)
o Framework suite of TM Forum best practices
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Significant focus on common data models, common APIs and operationalization
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Trends: Segment Routing MomentumSetting the Stage for SDN Deployments (1/3)
• Segment Routing designed for SDNo Span the service provider, data center, enterprise, WEB
o State is pushed at the source, not the infrastructure
o Operational simplicity vs. MPLS control plane/eliminate LDP, RSVP
• Cisco Announces Cloud Scale Networking Innovations for SPs (Dec.)o Target is assisting SPs in transformation of COs (think CORD) to Data Centers
o Three enabling and unifying technologies
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Segment Routing
EVPN (BGP)
Open Model
Telemetry
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Trends: Segment Routing MomentumSetting the Stage for SDN Deployments (2/3)
• Nokia SR OS Segment Routing Supporto Availability: Since SR OS Release 13, over 12 months
o Product Support: vSR, 7450, 7750, 7950
o IGPs: ISIS and OSPF
• Juniper Junos Segment Routing Supporto Availability: Since JUNOS 15.1F5 / 16.2R1, under 12 months
o Product Support: vMX, MX, PTX, QFX
o IGPs: ISIS and OSPF
• Cisco IOS XR Segment Routing Supporto Availability: Since IOS XR 5.2, over 24 months
o Product Support: ASR9K, NCS 5500
o IGPs: ISIS and OSPF
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Trends: Segment Routing MomentumSetting the Stage for SDN Deployments (3/3)
• Cisco Tech Field Day / Segment Routing (June 2016)o Walmart Global WAN deployment
Reduced complexity and # protocols (no LDP, no RSVP)
Consistent with mature MPLS forwarding/data plane
o Microsoft in Hyperscale Environment Large elephant flows (long-lived streams)/variable latency
Software-Driven WAN (SWAN) introduces SR as project Phase 2
SR over IGP (ISIS) for topology/signal only input/little state info
o Comcast Keep flow state out of the network/applications controlling the network (CDN)
Interesting SR use: Unicast/Multicast/Anycast layering for content distribution
Interesting SR use: send video packets to manipulation functions (SRH) like service chains
• Learn more segment routingo https://xrdocs.github.io/segment-routing/
o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpUnsYjMBEA/
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Agenda
• Segmentation & Performance
• Layer 123 SDN World Congress
• Trends
• Use-Cases & Announcements
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Transport/ML-SDN Top 6 Use-Cases
1. Multi-layer L0-L3 (Optical/IP) transport w. centralized network control & agility
2. Multi-domain, multi-vendor transport w. centralized network control & agility
3. Service chaining and automated service creation/modification (SDN+NFV) for NaaS/IaaS
4. Wireless transport for MBH and MFH
5. Automated and/or application-driven VPN and SD-WAN Services
6. Create SDN-based open-source, whitebox network elements
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Transport/ML-SDN Use-CasesExamples & Announcements (1/3)
• Use Case #1-#5: AT&T ECOMP as Open Source (June 2016)o ECOMP open-sourced with Linux Foundation
o AMDOCS selected as System Integration Partner
o Orange commits to testing ECOMP (September 2016)
• Use-Case #6: Open-source, white box router (Apr. 2016)o CENGN, Telus & NoviFlow
o Integration of Open-Source Software-Defined Router in the Cloud
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Transport/ML-SDN Use-CasesExamples & Announcements (2/3)
• Colt Selects Cisco for 100Gbps Packet Network Upgrade to Deliver Cloud-Scale DigitalServices: Dec. 2016: Cisco NCS 5500, ASR9k (IOS-XR) and Cisco WAE for SDN control
• Nokia enables Globe Telecom's move to Cloud and IoT-ready networks using 4.5GPro, Carrier SDN, IP and Optical technologies: Oct. 2016: NSP, 7750, 7950, 1830optical SDN-enabled networking
• Windstream Automates Provisioning of Wavelength Services Across Nationwide,Multi-Vendor Network Using Ciena Blue Planet: Oct. 2016
• Infinera launches Xceed SDN Software Suite: Oct. 2016
o ACG Research’s Xceed SDN Market Impact Report
o Initial release with Xceed SDN controller and two applications
o Windstream intent to deploy
• Google SDN Presentation at Layer 123 SDN World Congress: Oct. 2016: 5 SDNControllers used on the current network
• Nokia and Jiangsu Telecom (China Telecom) to deploy Carrier WAN-SDN: Sept. 2016:Nokia NSP network optimization with 7950 XRS Data Center Interconnect corenetwork
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Transport/ML-SDN Use-CasesExamples & Announcements (3/3)
• ECI INTRODUCES NEW LAMBDA ON DEMAND CAPABILITIES TO ITS LIGHTAPPS™FAMILY OF SDN APPLICATIONS: Jun-2016, Reduce service delivery times for packetand optical networks
• Ciena Blue Planet Launches DevOps Toolkit: May 2016, Enable 3rd partydevelopment of adapters and VNF onboarding
• Huawei and Baidu Deploy China’s First Transport SDN DCI Optical Network: April2016, Huawei claims 162 SDN projects worldwide spanning multiple applicationscenarios
• Verizon Shawn Hakl NFV World Congress: Apr-2016, Update on SDN enabledManaged Services: Managed SD-WAN
• Vodafone SDN enabled VPN Demo MWC: Mar-2016, Demonstration of SDN and NFVenabled VPN functionality
• Huawei/Telefonica Press Release: Feb-2016, Telefonica, Huawei complete SDN IPtrial with real traffic
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SDN 2016: Dynamic, programmable optical and IP layers with software control and orchestration to deliver networking efficiency and service agility for increased revenue
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Q3-2016 Summary
• The network is increasingly ready for SDN deployments w. SDN-enabled equipmento Programmable optical underlay with advanced coherent technology is ramping
o IP/MPLS evolution with PCE and Segment Routing exists across vendors
o Uniform data modeling (YANG) and configuration (NETCONF) being embraced
o Open APIs for programmability and “layered” approach to software
• Open source collaborations AND standards are maturing o Open source creates “shared” R&D investment and faster time to market
o Standards add structure and define behaviors
o It’s the combination that is really powerful, fast and structured
• SDN control and application software revenues remain modest and taking time; Most vendors identifying 2016 as year of engagements with 2017 revenue ramp
• Transport SDN deployments are slowly moving from POC to deploymento Cisco IOS XR/WAE & Colt w. 100G upgrade for cloud-scale digital services
o Nokia & Globe (Philippines) with Carrier SDN, IP & Optical
o Ciena BP & Windstream multi-vendor wavelength service automation
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