ACEEE Market Transformation Symposium...Global lighting electricity demand: What can be saved...

© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2008

ACEEE Market Transformation Symposium

Paul WaideSenior Policy Analyst

Energy Efficiency & Environment DivisionInternational Energy Agency

1st April 2008, Washington D.C.

Meeting Stretch Goals for Energy Efficiency:

Market transformation initiatives from around the

world

In support of the G8 Plan of Action

Energy Usein the NewMillennium

Trends in IEA Countries

ENERGYINDICATORS

© OECD/IEA 2007

Energy efficiency is the “Biggest Fuel” and the cleanest: historical impact for IEA-11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1973 1980 1990 2000 2004

EJ

56%

Actual energy use

Hypothetical energy usewithout efficiency improvements

Savings

Actual energy use

Energy savings due to energy efficiency improvements

~5.5 Gt CO2

If whole world has followed the same trend global abatement from energy efficiency gains over 30 years amount to ~15 Gt CO2 per annum

INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY Improved end-use efficiency accounts for two-thirds

of avoided emissions in 2030 in the APS

Alternative Policy Scenario

Reference Scenario

Increased nuclear (10%)Increased renewables (12%)Power sector efficiency & fuel (13%)

Electricity end-use efficiency (29%)

Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%)

26

30

34

38

42

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gto

f CO

2

Alternative Policy Scenario: Key Policies for CO2 Reduction

© OECD/IEA - 2007

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIEINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

But do efficiency policies work? Half of US states have utility EE progs…

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Ave

rag

e p

er c

apit

a re

sid

enti

al e

lect

rici

ty

con

sum

pti

on

(kW

h/y

ear)

States without efficiency programs

States with efficiency programs

31%lower

© OECD/IEA - 2008


0

300

600

900

1980 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02

PJ

Oil Natural Gas Coal and Coke Renewable Energy etc.

Denmark: gross energy demand is no longer rising with economic growth

Denmark: gross energy demand is no longer rising with economic growth

Source: Danish Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA - 2008

© OECD/IEA - 2007

QuantifyingPrincipal-AgentProblems inEnergy EfficiencyIn support of the

G8 Plan of Action

INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Principles behind IEA’s efficiency policy recommendations for G8

A recommendation is justified when it:is likely to save a large amount of energy at low costaddresses existing market imperfections or barriersaddresses a significant gap in existing policyis supported by IEA analysis there’s a high degree of international consensus

In support of theG8 Plan of Action © OECD/IEA - 2007

IEA E.E. Recommendations to G8: buildings & appliances1. Building codes: set, enforce and regularly update mandatory

energy efficiency standards for new buildings with an aim to minimise total costs over a 30-year lifetime

2. Very low energy buildings: Countries should support and encourage the construction of buildings with very low or no net energy consumption

3. Existing buildings: implement package of initiatives to address the most important barriers to energy efficiency in buildings

4. Standards and labels: All countries should adopt mandatory energy performance requirements and comparative energy labels. Adequate resources should be allocated to ensure that stringency is maintained and that the requirements are effectively enforced

5. Standby power: adopt a common 1W limit for standby power but consider allowing negotiated exceptions when merited

6. Set top boxes: adopt minimum efficiency standards for digital television adaptors

7. Low power modes: adopt policies which require electronic devices to enter low power modes automatically after a reasonable period when not being used

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE© OECD/IEA - 2007

Even the most stringent codes are not Even the most stringent codes are not costcost--optimisedoptimised over the building lifetimeover the building lifetime

Wall

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

HDD + CDD

U-v

alu

e:

W/(

m²

* K

)

Optimum

Actual

LCA

Ceiling / Roof

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

HDD + CDD

U-v

alu

e:

W/(

m²

* K

)

Optimum

Actual

LCA

e.g. U-values in European Building codes compared to Least Cost over 30 years

Most building codes are far from the level that would ensure the lowest life cycle cost over the buildings lifetime

Least Cost Wall Insulation Europe Least Cost Ceiling Insulation Europe


IEA E.E. Recommendations to G8: lighting & transport8. Comprehensive policy package for lighting: Countries

should adopt a comprehensive policy package aimed at achieving best-practice in lighting energy efficiency across all lighting usage sectors

9. Incandescent lamps: Governments should move to phase out the most inefficient incandescent bulbs as soon as commercially and economically viable

10. Vehicle fuel economy standards:adopt mandatory fuel efficiency standards for new light-duty vehicles. If such standards already exist, increase their stringency

11. Fuel efficient tyres: Governments should adopt new international test procedures to measure the rolling resistance of tyres and use them to set maximum rolling resistance limits and to display tyre energy labels

LIGHT’SLABOUR’S

LOSTPolicies for

Energy-efficient Lighting


© OECD/IEA - 2007

Global lighting electricity demand: What can be saved cost-effectively?

0

1 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

3 0 0 0

4 0 0 0

5 0 0 0

6 0 0 0

1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0

Lig

hti

ng

ele

ctri

city

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

N o P o lic ie s

C u rre n t P o lic ie s

L L C C fro m 2 0 0 87 4 5 T W h = 1 5 %

1 6 3 5 T W h = 3 8 %


IEA E.E. Recommendations to G8: industry & cross-sectoral12. Industry: gather energy performance indicators13. M&V, Fiscal, Finance:

adopt, and publicise, a common energy efficiency savings verification and measurement protocolreview current subsidy and fiscal incentive programmes

14. National plans: set goals and formulate action plans for improving energy efficiency in each sector. Energy efficiency policy agencies should be adequately resourced. Best practice action plans should:assess energy consumption by end-use in all sectorsidentify the economy's energy savings potentialsestablish objectives and adequate methods for evaluating the success of the plan

15. Reporting progress: track progress in implementing each of the concrete recommendations and provide the IEA with regular updates

© OECD/IEA - 2007

QuantifyingPrincipal-AgentProblems inEnergy EfficiencyIn support of the

G8 Plan of Action


© OECD/IEA - 2008

* 2006 recs* 2007 recs

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

EX

AJO

UL

ES

Equipment

Transport

Lighting

Buildings

2030 low savings estimate 50 EJ

WEO 2006 Projection

2030 moderate savings estimate 83

EJ

Estimated impact of full implementation of IEA G8 policy recommendations on

world energy demand1

© OECD/IEA - 20071provisional estimates for final energy

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Who’s doing what?

© OECD/IEA - 2008


Major economies are setting ambitious efficiency targets

China: -20% energy/GDP by 2010 (-4% p.a.)Japan: -30% energy/GDP by 2020 (-2.9% p.a.)EU: -20% by 2020 (-1.8% p.a.)

Broader context are GHG reductions targets e.g.EU: -20% by 2020 but -30% if global agreementJapan: -50% by 2050France: -75% by 2050UK: at least -60% by 2050 but will be made legally binding with three intermediate carbon budget steps e.g. -26-32% by 2020 (5 year carbon budgets with binding limits each 15 years)

© OECD/IEA - 2008


European Union Legislative Acts

End-use energy efficiency directivesEnergy labelling of household appliances (1992) Boiler, ballast and refrigerator efficiency standards + VAs other equipment (1995 onwards)Energy Performance in Buildings (2002) Eco-design of energy using products (2005)Energy services (2006)EU EE Action Plan (2006)

Other Combined Heat and Power (2004) + Emissions Trading Scheme for industry + power sectors

© OECD/IEA - 2008


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

A+ A B C D E F G

Mar

ket

shar

e (%

)

2003 1st 3 months

1997

1990-2 (GEA)

Labelling can produce major market Labelling can produce major market transformation: e.g. refrigerators in EUtransformation: e.g. refrigerators in EU

© OECD/IEA - 2008


The new The new

Chinese Chinese

Room airRoom air--

conditioner conditioner

energy label energy label

© OECD/IEA - 2008

61 countries with more than 80% of the world’s population have standards and labelling

M a n d a t o r y s t a n d a r d s V o l u n t a r y S t a n d a r d s C o m p a r a t i v e L a b e l E n d o r s e m e n t L a b e l

A l g e r i a *

A u s t r a l i a

B a n g l a d e s h *

B u l g a r i a

B r a z i l *

C a n a d a

C h i l e *

C h i n a

C o l u m b i a *

C z e c h R e p u b l i c

E g y p t *

E s t o n i a

E U

H u n g a r y

I n d i a *

I r a n

I s r a e l

J a p a n

K o r e a

L i t h u a n i a *

M a l a y s i a

M a l d i v e s *

M e x i c o

N e p a l *

N e w Z e a l a n d

P e r u *

P h i l i p p i n e s

P o l a n d

E U

I n d i a

I n d o n e s i a *

K o r e a

S w i t z e r l a n d

A l g e r i a *

A r g e n t i n a *

A u s t r a l i a

B a n g l a d e s h *

B u l g a r i a

B r a z i l

C a n a d a

C h i l e *

C h i n a *

C o l u m b i a *

C z e c h R e p u b l i c

E g y p t *

E s t o n i a

E U

H o n g K o n g

H u n g a r y

I n d i a

I n d o n e s i a

I r a n

I s r a e l

J a p a n

K o r e a

L i t h u a n i a *

M a l a y s i a *

M a l d i v e s *

M e x i c o

N e p a l *

N e w Z e a l a n d

A u s t r a l i a

B r a z i l

C h i n a

C h i n e s e T a i p e i

E U

J a p a n

K o r e a

S i n g a p o r e

S w i t z e r l a n d

U K

U S A

© OECD/IEA - 2008


Policy coverage as a share of residential electricity use is still

incomplete

Policy coverage as a share of Policy coverage as a share of residential electricity use is still residential electricity use is still

incompleteincomplete

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MEPS

VAsCom

paris

on label

sEndors

emen

t Lab

els

Standar

ds and la

bels

Co

vera

ge

of

po

licy

mea

sure

EUAUS-NZJapanUSA-CANChina

© OECD/IEA - 2008


Policy coverage as a share of residential electricity use is still

incomplete

Policy coverage as a share of Policy coverage as a share of residential electricity use is still residential electricity use is still

incompleteincomplete

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MEPS

VAsCom

paris

on label

sEndors

emen

t Lab

els

Standar

ds and la

bels

Co

vera

ge

of

po

licy

mea

sure

EUAUS-NZJapanUSA-CANChina

EU Eco-design Directive:

21 product standards pending, including proposed horizontal 1W standby limit

© OECD/IEA - 2008

3.0

3 .5

4 .0

4 .5

5 .0

5 .5

6 .0

6 .5

7 .0

2.0 2 .5 3 .0 3.5 4 .0 4 .5

COP

kW

Standa rd

And stringency can be increased e.g. And stringency can be increased e.g. Japanese Japanese ““Top RunnerTop Runner”” standards standards for reversible room air conditionersfor reversible room air conditioners

Source: C. Murakoshi et al, Jyukankyo Research Institute

EU Class A

ANZ MEPS

US MEPS

LIGHT’SLABOUR’S

LOSTPolicies for

Energy-efficient Lighting


© OECD/IEA - 2007

Countries in process of phasing-out incandescent lamps

Cuba (already done!)Australia + New Zealand (start 2008)US (2012-14 but also CA, NV) EU (from 2009 but fully by 2010/11 for UK, Por, Bel, Ire, Fr)Canada (finalising regulation details)Switzerland (finalising details)Philippines, Mexico, Argentina, Tunisia China (considering) + other non-OECD IEA made recommendations to G8 (2006 & 2007)Up to 500Mt CO2 saved by 2012

© OECD/IEA, 2008

Transport Energy Efficiency

© OECD/IEA, 2008Year

International Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards 2008 - 2020

C

The EU EPBD DirectiveThe EU EPBD Directive

Common method to calculate the energy performance of buildings. Method to include all factors that impact on energy consumption and can be adapted to building types (homes, offices, schools, etc.)

Set minimum energy performance standards to new buildings and large existing buildings being refurbished

Certification schemes for all buildings (new, sold, rented)

Display of certificates in public buildings

Inspection & assessment of boilers/heating and cooling installations

The measures

Source: DG-TREN


Labelling can also be used for buildings

B

All EU member states and accession countries are introducing mandatory energy certification of buildings

FD

© OECD/IEA - 2008


Progression in UK building code requirements for new homes

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Sh

are

of

per

mit

ted

200

2 en

erg

y (c

arb

on

em

issi

on

) lim

its

Actual Proposed

Source: UK Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2007

Gas condensing boilersLow E double glazing

Whole building provisionsWith prescriptive underpin Based on carbonCodes for retrofit

Mandatory certification of homesBoiler + AC inspections

Zero net carbon homes(exempt from stamp duty)

It is estimated that 30% of UK’s projected 2050 building stock is yet to be built

2002 codes up to 70% more stringent than in 1990

© OECD/IEA - 2008


Policy driven growth of low-E double glazing in Europe

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Switzerland

Germany

France

UKImplementation of thermal regulation(building code)

Increasing share of triple glazing

(Label Minergie)

Announcement

Source: Saint-Gobain, FranceCEPE, ETH Zurich

Mar

ket s

hare

of c

oate

d gl

azin

g

© OECD/IEA - 2008


Germany: building efficiency policies

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

PJ Electricity

WoodDistrict heatGasOil productsCoal

Structure of space heating energy demand of residential buildings in Germany

ImpactsEnergy demand of existing buildings reduced by up to 30% (total of autonomous technical progress and policy measures)At least 15% EE improvement of building stock attributable to policies since late 1970s

© OECD/IEA - 2008


France: fiscal incentives for buildings

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2000

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12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1974

1976

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1980

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2006

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0.05

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Energy conservation, energy efficiencyLarge (retrofit) worksMaintenance (plastering)Large building equipement Normal rate large retrofitRate maintenance (plastering)Increased rate large retrofit (recently acquired buildings)

Deductions from taxable income

Upper limits of tax incentive (Euro 2004) Rate

Tax credits Reduced VAT rate

Tax reductions

Energy not

includ.

Owners and tenants (O&T) Only owners (large retrofit

O&T Only owners

Income tax reduction, tax credits, VAT specific only during early 1980s & 2004+

Development from deductions from income (1980s) to tax credits (1999+)

Tax credits preferable over taxable (socially, effectiveness)

Currently:

Tax credits: 15% to 50% of costs

Incentives related to efficiency requirements

© OECD/IEA - 2008

European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport n° 331.02.2006

EU 2006 EnergyEU 2006 Energy Services Services DirectiveDirective

1. Member States to achieve 9% energy savings target by the 9th year of the Directive’s implementation (2008 to 2016) for all sectors except EU ETS

2. MS to submit national energy efficiency action plans for review to the European Commission by June 2007, a second by mid 2011 and 3rd by June 2014 describing measures to achieve the national savings targets

3. Obligation placed on energy distribution, DSOs and/or retail energy sales companies: - to deliver energy services, energy audits and energy efficiency measures or contribute to an energy efficiency fund

5. All measures must be verifiable and measurable or estimable

6. Public sector required to do two of: audits, performance contracting & public procurement

Source: DG-TREN

© OECD/IEA, 2008© OECD/IEA, 2007

Thank you

© OECD/IEA, 2008

Paul Waide

International Energy Agency

[email protected]

ACEEE Market Transformation Symposium...Global lighting electricity demand: What can be saved...

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Transcript of ACEEE Market Transformation Symposium...Global lighting electricity demand: What can be saved...