ACE Limited JP Morgan 2003 Insurance Fixed Income Conference
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Transcript of ACE Limited JP Morgan 2003 Insurance Fixed Income Conference
ACE Limited
ACE LimitedJP Morgan 2003 InsuranceFixed Income Conference
March 13, 2003
2 ACE Limited
Application of the Safe Harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:
Forward-looking statements are being made in this presentation; actual results could differ materially from projected results.
Some of the forward-looking statements may include references to financial forecasts, rating changes, the impact of financing plans, claims payments, rates, demand, credit spreads, profitability, income, growth potential, business mix, reserves, reinsurance recoverables, investments, expenses and tax rates.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to:(i) the competitive environment in which the Company operates;(ii) global political conditions, the occurrence of terrorist attacks or the outbreak of
war;(iii) rating agency actions;(iv) fluctuations in interest rates and other market conditions affecting investments
and financing opportunities;(v) the actual amount of new and renewal business and market acceptance of the
Company’s products;(vi) the occurrence of catastrophic events or other insured or reinsured events with a
frequency or severity exceeding the Company’s estimates, actual loss experience and the amount and timing of mitigating recoveries, including reinsurance collections;
(vii) credit developments among reinsurers;(viii) the uncertainities in the loss reserving and claims settlement process; and(ix) economic, legal, regulatory, litigation, judicial and legislative developments or
uncertainties.
See our SEC filings and our latest earnings press release and financial supplement , which are available on our website, particularly our safe harbor language, for more information on factors that could affect our forward looking statements.
Safe Harbor Disclosure
3 ACE Limited
Agenda
Company overview
2003 outlook
Asbestos
Rating agency update
4 ACE Limited
Business Overview
Leading property casualty insurance and reinsurance company with $43 billion in assets
Global platform with operations in almost 50
countries
Diversified product offerings in commercial lines, financial guaranty, personal lines, accident and health insurance and reinsurance
Publicly-traded since 1993; founded in 1985
5 ACE Limited
Key Objectives
Underwriting profitability, even if it means exiting a line of business
Diversification of products and geography achieved via internal growth and acquisitions, as appropriate
ROE of 15% or better
6 ACE Limited
Business Segments
$8.1 billion in net premiums written in 2002
Insurance-North American is largest premium source with $2.9 billion or 36% of total premiums
Insurance-Overseas General is second largest segment with premium of $2.7 billion or 34% of total premiums
Financial Services premium is variable, as loss portfolio transfer (LPT) business skews results.
2002 Net Premiums Written
$936
$2,716
$2,919
$1,497
Ins-North American Ins-Overseas General Global Reinsurance Financial Services
$ in Millions
(36%)
(34%)
(18%)
(12%)
7 ACE Limited
Business Segments
Operating earnings before the $354 million asbestos and environmental charge totaled $865 million
Insurance-North American is the largest segment at 42% of operating earnings before corporate expenses
Global Reinsurance is the second largest earnings contributor at 28%
* Excluding $354 million after-tax charge for A&E prior period reserve development
2002 Operating Earnings before Corporate Expenses
$451
$116
$296
$202
Ins-North America Ins-Overseas General
Global Reinsurance Financial Services
(43%)
(11%)
(27%)
(19%)
$ in Millions
8 ACE Limited
Insurance – North American
Premium growth in 2002 driven by:
Rate increases New products ($200
million GPW)
Indicative rate increases U.S. casualty up 75% U.S. D&O up 90%
1,891 1,986
2,846
73
468797
22
2000 2001 2002 4Q-01 4Q-02
Net Premiums Written
P&C Life & Health
43%
70%
$ in Millions
5%
9 ACE Limited
Insurance – North American
2002 adjusted loss rate of 68.0% flat with 2001’s despite rate increases
Change in business mix Prior year reserve
development higher in 2002 than 2001
2002 satellite losses 2002 underwriting and
administrative expense ratio down to 22.5% from 28.7% in 2001
Greater proportion of lower commission D&O and E&O business
Administrative expenses up less than earned premium growth
65.1%
27.3%
68.2%
7.4%
28.7%
68.0%
20.9%
22.5%
2000 2001 2002
Combined Ratio
Adj. loss ratio 9/11 loss ratio A&E loss ratio Expense ratio
92.4%104.3%
111.4%
10 ACE Limited
42%
Insurance – Overseas General
Business expansion and rate increases driving premium growth in all regions
Japanese market is an exception; flat except for introduction of new fire lines
P&C rates up, with exception of aviation, in ACE Global Markets
Increased reinsurance costs suppressed net premium growth in 2002 at ACE GM
2,004
1,442
712
1,929
787
362
259514
282
2000 2001 2002 4Q-01 4Q-02
2002 Net Premiums Written
ACE Global Markets ACE International
$ in Millions
11%
34%
9%
42%
11 ACE Limited
Insurance – Overseas General
2002 adjusted combined ratio down modestly compared to 2001
ACE Global Markets turnaround continues; 2002 combined ratio of 109.3% versus 107.3% 9/11 adjusted 2001 (124.3% unadjusted)
ACE International level; 2002 combined ratio of 95.5% versus 109.9% 9/11 adjusted 2001 (111.6% unadjusted)
* Adjusted for 9/11 claims and casualty reserve charge in 2001
60.5%
38.8%
60.6%
14.9%
39.7%
60.8%
38.6%
2000 2001 2002
Combined Ratio
Adjusted loss ratio Large losses Expense ratio
99.3%
115.2%
99.4%
12 ACE Limited
Global Reinsurance
P&C growth driven by diversification initiative and rate increases
4Q-01 large life deal skews life and total premium comparisons for 2002
Life segment will be included in Global Reinsurance going forward
252354
408
777
159
18
345
9447
2000 2001 2002 4Q-01 4Q-02
Net Premium Written
P&C Life and A&H
$ in Millions
120%
422%
29%
13 ACE Limited
Global Reinsurance
Increase in 2002 loss ratio reflects growth of casualty business
Catastrophe losses were relatively light in 2002
Expense ratio reflects lower administrative expense ratio as premium growth far in excess of administrative expense growth
21.0%
24.9%
30.1%
67.6%
30.0%
44.9%
24.0%
2000 2001 2002
Combined Ratio
Adjusted loss ratio 9/11 loss ratio Expense ratio
14 ACE Limited
Financial Services
4 business units in NY and Bermuda
Financial guaranty includes municipal and structured finance bond (re)insurance; title, mortgage and trade credit reinsurance; CDO insurance and credit default swaps.
Financial solutions includes finite risk reinsurance, loss portfolio transfers, CDO insurance and other structured underwritings.
$110
$92
Financial Guaranty Financial Solutions
Operating Earnings
(45%)
(55%)
$ in Millions
15 ACE Limited
Financial Services
$81.8 billion portfolio
Muni portfolio rated A on average
Par up 4% over 2001
Non-muni portfolio rated AA- on average
Par up 20% over 2001
Single name corporate swap portfolio down 17% since 2001
Par Outstanding Dec. 31, 2002
10.3% 15.6%
61.3%0.7%
2.5%
4.2%
5.4%
Consumer rec. Sr. layer DCOSMunicipal Funded equity CDO'sOther Commercial rec.Single name swaps
Financial Guaranty Portfolio
16 ACE Limited
Consolidated
Operating segment adjusted earnings up 20% in 2002
Debt repayment in corporate segment reduced corporate loss 6%
Consolidated adjusted operating income up 28%
Adjusted 2002 ROE 13.1% versus target of 15%
$ in Millions
Financial Summary
2000 2001 2002
%
Change
02/01
Segment operating income $804 $144 $711 NMFAdj. segment operating income 804 888 1065 20%
Corporate expenses (222) (213) (200) (6%)Consolidated operating income 582 (69) 511 NMFAdj. operating income 582 675 865 28%
17 ACE Limited
Balance Sheet
Most asset changes driven by business growth and strong cash flow
Reinsurance recoverables include $1.9 billion gross increase after A&E charge
Total Assets
2001 2002
%
Change
02/01
Investments and cash $15.9 $18.3 15%Insurance rein. receivables 2.5 2.7 5%Reinsurance recoverables 11.4 14.0 23%DAC 0.7 0.8 23%Prepaid insurance 1.2 1.7 41%Goodwill 2.8 2.8 2%Deferred tax asset 1.3 1.3 3%Other assets 1.4 1.8 37%
Total Assets $37.2 $43.4 17%
$ in Billions
18 ACE Limited
Investment Portfolio
$17.2 billion fixed income portfolio
$2.4 billion in consolidated cash flow supported portfolio growth
High credit quality; average rating of AA
Duration of 3.1 years
Yield of 4.4% down from 5.25% at year end 2001
Fixed Income Rating Distribution
AA
AAAA
BBB BB B Other(.5%)(5%)(4%)
(8%)
(17%)
(17%)
(49%)
$ in Millions
19 ACE Limited
Investment Portfolio
Fixed Income Asset Allocation
MBS
Agency
Corporate
Cash & CETreasury
ABS
MunicipalNon-US
Cash & CE Treasury AgencyCorporate MBS ABSMunicipal Non-US
(2%)
(7%)(9%) (15%)
(5%)
(3%)
(40%)
(19%)
$ in Millions
20 ACE Limited
Balance Sheet
Policy liability growth due to business growth and A&E change
Total debt and preferred stock declined during year
Gain due to lower interest rates greater than unrealized losses on credit impairments, credit default swaps, equity and bond swaps
Total Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity$ in Billions
2001 2002
%
Change
02/01
Unpaid losses/ future policy benefits $21.1 $24.8 17%Unearned premiums 3.9 5.6 45%Debt 1.8 1.9 3%Trust preferred securities 0.9 0.5 (46%)Other liabilites 3.1 3.9 29%
Total Liabilities 30.8 36.7 19%
Mezzanine Equity 0.3 0.3 0%
Shareholder's equity 6.0 6.0 (1%)Other Comprehensive Income 0.1 0.4 331%
Shareholders' Equity 6.1 6.4 5%
21 ACE Limited
Planned Financing:Impact on Balance Sheet at 12/31/02
12/31/2002 12/31/2002Actual Pro forma
Short term debt 150$ 150$ Long term debt 1,749$ 1,749$ Total Debt 1,899$ 1,899$
Trust preferreds (TRUPS) 475$ 475$
Mezzanine (Mezz) 311$ 311$
Preferred Stock 500$
Stockholders equity 6,299$ 6,299$ Less Goodwill 2,717$ 2,717$ Tangible Equity* 3,582$ 3,582$
Total Capital 8,984$ 9,484$ Less Goodwill 2,717$ 2,717$ Tangible Capital* 6,267$ 6,767$
*To be conservative, tangible equity or tangible capital does not include credit for the preferred stock issue.
22 ACE Limited
Planned Financing: Impact on Leverage Ratios
1) Key Assumptions:- $500mm of perpetual preferred stock issued at 8%. - Mezzanine equity becomes common equity in Q2/03.- Preferred stock included as equity
Ratios1 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 12/31/2003Actual Actual proforma
D/Total Capital 20.2% 20.9% 18.1%D+Trups+Mezz/Total Capital 33.2% 29.6% 22.7%D+Trups+Mezz/Tangible Capital 47.6% 42.6% 30.8%D+Trups+Mezz/Tangible Equity 90.9% 74.3% 44.6%
23 ACE Limited
2003 Outlook
Pricing cycle remains firm, with lower or less rate increases in some segments
Property catastrophe rates relatively stable for 2003 renewals
European pricing moved up after US; expect this to continue
Demand for terrorism coverage modest
Credit spreads remain wide
24 ACE Limited
2003 Guidance
P&C net premium earned growth of 30-33%
Combined ratio excluding Financial Services of 90 – 92%, including $100 million of catastrophe losses in Global Reinsurance segment
Investment income of $845 – 865 million
Financial Services operating income growth of 15 – 20%
Interest expense of $215 – 225 million
Consolidated tax rate of 18 – 20%, although 16 – 18% in 1Q-03
25 ACE Limited
Brandywine Asbestos & Environmental Exposure
1995 – Restructuring order CIGNA agreed to $800 million reinsurance protection and a
dividend retention reserve
1999 – ACE’s acquisition of CIGNA P&C operations
Purchased $2.5 billion reinsurance protection from NICO
26 ACE Limited
Analysis of Reserve Adjustment
$ in MillionsTotal
Gross Reserve Addition $2,178 Ceded to Third Parties (1,327)Net Before NICO 851 Cession to NICO (533)Net Reserve Addition 318
Bad Debt Provision 14510% ACE Bermuda Participation 53Total Change in Reserve Need and Bad Debt $516
After Tax Charge $354
27 ACE Limited
Gross Brandywine Asbestos Liabilities
% of Total EstimatedNumber of Gross Paid Gross Ultimate Unpaid Three Year
Policyholders 2000 - 2002 2000 - 2002 12/31/2002 Survival Ratio($ 000's) ($ 000's)
Resolved with Payment 18 112,277 16.5% 21 0.0 Reserved at Policy Limits or Settlement Amounts 15 70,802 10.4% 191,770 8.1 Reserved at Policy Limits + Provision for Non-Products 3 27,972 4.1% 68,959 7.4 Other Known 14 84,102 12.3% 229,807 8.2 No Known Policies 10 - - - -Total 60 295,153 43.3% 490,557 5.0
Other Direct Exposures with Estimated Liability > $2 Million 75 150,345 22.1% 670,537 13.4
Other Direct Exposure with Estimated Liability < $2 Million 1,491 49,209 7.2% 65,000 4.0
Assumed Reinsurance - 186,413 27.4% 762,000 12.3
Additional IBNR Not Allocated - - - 730,400 -
Total 1,626 681,120 100.0% 2,718,494 12.0
Three Year Survival Ratio eliminating the 60 Major Asbestos Manufacturers/Producers: 17.3
60 Major Asbestos Manufacturers/Producers
28 ACE Limited
Estimated Brandywine Claims Payments
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Cal
end
ar Y
ear
Cla
ims
Pay
men
ts N
et o
f T
hir
d P
arty
Rei
n. P
aym
ents
($
Mill
ion
s)
2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Year of Loss Payment
ACE
NICO
NICO 90% / ACE 10%
ACE
29 ACE Limited
Rating Agency Update:Recent Actions
S&P On Credit Watch Negative - affirmed commercial paper
rating (A2) and indicated that debt and financial strength ratings may stay the same or fall by 1 or 2 notches. Watch does not include ACE Guaranty or ACE Capital Re and subsidiaries.
Moody’s Under Review for Possible Downgrade - indicated that
debt ratings may fall by one notch. Other financial strength ratings expected to stay the same except for Brandywine which is also under review.
30 ACE Limited
Rating Agency Update: Recent Actions
Fitch Ratings watch negative - all debt ratings and financial
strength ratings for INA Holdings subsidiaries. Brandywine and Century Indemnity downgraded from BBB to BBB-.
AM Best Have not commented publicly. Furnished additional
information on recoverables, reserves and 2003 projections.
31 ACE Limited
Key Financial Strength Ratings
Segment Legal Entity
S&P AM Best
Global Reinsurance ACE Tempest Life Reinsurance, Ltd. A+
ACE Tempest Reinsurance Ltd. A+ A+
Insurance North America ACE Bermuda Insurance Ltd. A+ A+
(Intercompany Pool) ACE American Insurance Co.& 9 other US companies A+ A
(Quota Share Co) 8 State Cos and ACE American Lloyd's Insurance Co. A+ A
(Westchester Group) Westchester Fire Insurance Co. A+ A
(Brandywine Group) 3 companies - ACE American Re, Century Indemnity/Re BBB B+
Overseas General Japan - ACE Insurance A-
Puerto- Rico - ACE Insurance Co. A
Australia - ACE Insurance Co. A A
New Zealand - ACE Insurance Co. A
Europe -ACE Insurance S.A. N.V.* A+ A
Canada - ACE INA Insurance Co. BBBpi A
Financial Services ACE Capital Re AA NR-1
ACE Guaranty Re Inc. AAA NR-1
FINANCIAL STRENGTH
*ACE Global Markets (Syndicate 2488) has a Aa3 rating from Moody’s ACE INA UK also rated A+ by S&P.
32 ACE Limited
Key Debt Ratings
Category Holding Company Debt Instrument Moody's S&P
Commercial paper ACE Limited $750M commercial paper program P-1 A-2ACE INA Holdings Inc. $2.05B commercial paper program P-1 A-2
Senior unsecured debt ACE Limited $500M 6.0% senior debt due 03/19/07 A2 A-ACE INA Holdings Inc. $100M 8.875% debentures due Aug 15, 2029 A2 A-
$400M 8.2% senior unsecured notes due Aug 15, 2004 A2 A-$300M 8.3% senior unsecured notes due Aug 15, 2005 A2 A-
Preferred Stock ACE Limited $311M 8.25% convertible preferred due 6/16/03 Baa1 BBBACE INA Holdings Inc. $100M 8.875% trust preferred due 12/31/2029 A3 BBB
$300M 9.7% capital securities due 04/01/30 A3 BBBACE Financial Services Inc. $75M 7.65% trust preferreds due 1/31/2044 A3 BBB
Private Debt Transactions ACE US Holdings, Inc. $250M 9.2% senior notes NR* NRACE INA Holdings, Inc. $200M 11.2% subordinated notes NR NR
*NR = Not rated