Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

SEMSOCSEMSOC Spatially Explicit Modeling of Soil Organic CarbonSpatially Explicit Modeling of Soil Organic Carbon

Overarching theme: CLIMATE CHANGE

Mitigation: carbon sequestrationAdaptation: vulnerability at various levels and scales (communities, sectors, )

Reducing vulnerability/enhancing adaptive capacity = inherently linked to a country’s sustainable development and dev. activities

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

SEMSOCSEMSOC

Adaptation to climate change must entail

the incorporation of potential impacts of climate

change

into ongoing sectoral, national,and regional

development strategies and plans;

Improved ADAPTATION

(through increased adaptive capacity to stressors)

will increase the capability of people and sectors

to engage in MITIGATION

MAINSTREAMING

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

SEMSOC Planning MeetingSEMSOC Planning Meeting

The planning meetings are to be held in January 2005 The planning meetings are to be held in January 2005 with with

the 4 selected countries in W-Africa the 4 selected countries in W-Africa

(Ghana, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso).(Ghana, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso).

The meetings will have 5 important parts directly The meetings will have 5 important parts directly related to SEMSOC and 5 additional parts related to SEMSOC and 5 additional parts

(integration with other activities and institutions). (integration with other activities and institutions).

We propose the following order for the 2-day We propose the following order for the 2-day meetings:meetings:

Dr. Petra Tschakert and Amadou Moctar Dieye

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

First Day (Morning): 3 – 3.5 First Day (Morning): 3 – 3.5 hourshours

list past, current, and upcoming activities list past, current, and upcoming activities and results of collaboration with the EROS and results of collaboration with the EROS Data Center within each country to identify Data Center within each country to identify potential synergies;potential synergies;

summarize briefly activities of national C summarize briefly activities of national C team team

(if applicable);(if applicable);

present and discuss the objectives of present and discuss the objectives of SEMSOC; SEMSOC;

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

First Day (Afternoon), 3 – 3.5 hoursFirst Day (Afternoon), 3 – 3.5 hours

identify and prioritize concrete and identify and prioritize concrete and necessary activities to reach the objectives;necessary activities to reach the objectives;

what is important for each country?what is important for each country?

based on their capacities, identify the key based on their capacities, identify the key people/national experts for every activity;people/national experts for every activity;

who is interested in collaborating?who is interested in collaborating?

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Day Two (Morning) 3 – 3.5 Day Two (Morning) 3 – 3.5 hourshours

list and evaluate existing data and identify list and evaluate existing data and identify data gaps that need to be filled to carry out data gaps that need to be filled to carry out the various activitiesthe various activities

where are what data and how good are where are what data and how good are they?they?

design a work plan for the next 2 years of design a work plan for the next 2 years of SEMSOC with an emphasis on this fiscal year SEMSOC with an emphasis on this fiscal year

(oct 2004 - sept 2005);(oct 2004 - sept 2005);

how can we get the work done?how can we get the work done?

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Day Two (Afternoon) 3 – 3.5 Day Two (Afternoon) 3 – 3.5 hourshours

recap objectives for SOCSAB-WA Initiatives recap objectives for SOCSAB-WA Initiatives Panning Workshop (Ouagadougou, March Panning Workshop (Ouagadougou, March 2005?)2005?)

discuss possibilities for grant proposals to discuss possibilities for grant proposals to various institutions (IFAD, GEF, LADA etc) various institutions (IFAD, GEF, LADA etc) and develop outlines for drafts; and develop outlines for drafts;

discuss potential cooperation with leading discuss potential cooperation with leading institutions on carbon sequestration, mainly institutions on carbon sequestration, mainly GCP and Carbo-Europe.GCP and Carbo-Europe.

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Overall Objective SEMSOC Overall Objective SEMSOC

SEMSOC extends the feasibility and prototype SEMSOC extends the feasibility and prototype work undertaken in Senegal through work undertaken in Senegal through SOCSOM (Sequestration of Carbon in Soil SOCSOM (Sequestration of Carbon in Soil Organic Matter) into other areas of semiarid Organic Matter) into other areas of semiarid and sub-humid Africa. and sub-humid Africa.

It supports the further development of It supports the further development of approaches to approaches to promote economically viable promote economically viable natural resource management and natural resource management and agricultural practicesagricultural practices that promote soil that promote soil fertility and fertility and result in soil or biomass carbon result in soil or biomass carbon sequestrationsequestration..

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Overall Objective SEMSOC Overall Objective SEMSOC (cont.)(cont.)

SEMSOC addresses national concerns by developing SEMSOC addresses national concerns by developing integrated integrated project activities with selected national participantsproject activities with selected national participants. .

The activities shall address the potential The activities shall address the potential biophysical potentialbiophysical potential for carbon sequestration and the for carbon sequestration and the policy constraintspolicy constraints as well as well as the enabling as the enabling socio-economic incentivessocio-economic incentives. .

It includes It includes training and capacity buildingtraining and capacity building and determines, and determines, develops, and promotes agricultural develops, and promotes agricultural sustainabilitysustainability, , analytical procedures for biomass and soil analytical procedures for biomass and soil carbon samplingcarbon sampling, , and the and the potential of soil carbon sequestrationpotential of soil carbon sequestration. .

This shall further African involvement in climate mitigation and This shall further African involvement in climate mitigation and facilitate these countries to become fully active partners in facilitate these countries to become fully active partners in climate mitigation strategies, the enhancement of soil climate mitigation strategies, the enhancement of soil fertility, the promotion of agricultural sustainability, and fertility, the promotion of agricultural sustainability, and restricting of desertification. restricting of desertification.

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

COMPONENT 1:COMPONENT 1:Activities and with Funding from Activities and with Funding from

USAID/EGAT/ESP (Petra + Amadou) USAID/EGAT/ESP (Petra + Amadou)

Geographical focus: Geographical focus: Ghana, Mali, Niger, Burkina Ghana, Mali, Niger, Burkina FasoFaso

Overall objective:Overall objective: Identify Identify adaptation and adaptation and mitigation opportunitiesmitigation opportunities derived from establishing derived from establishing the the sensitivity of natural resourcessensitivity of natural resources (incl. C stocks) (incl. C stocks) to climate change and the response of appropriate to climate change and the response of appropriate land management options land management options (document land degradation; quantify carbon (document land degradation; quantify carbon losses; identify mitigation opportunities that shall losses; identify mitigation opportunities that shall lead to enhanced soil fertility, agricultural lead to enhanced soil fertility, agricultural sustainability, and increased food security; sustainability, and increased food security; evaluate the need for adaptation responses to evaluate the need for adaptation responses to climate change). climate change).

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

TASKS COMPONENT 1TASKS COMPONENT 1

Task 1Task 1: Quantitative Evaluation of Land Cover/Use Change : Quantitative Evaluation of Land Cover/Use Change and Identification of Land Resource Improvement and and Identification of Land Resource Improvement and DeteriorationDeterioration

Task 2Task 2: Quantification of Current Biomass and Soil Carbon : Quantification of Current Biomass and Soil Carbon Stocks and Changes over TimeStocks and Changes over Time

Task 3Task 3: Evaluation of Effects of Land Management and : Evaluation of Effects of Land Management and Climate Scenarios on Soil and Biomass C Dynamics through Climate Scenarios on Soil and Biomass C Dynamics through Spatially Explicit Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses Spatially Explicit Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses (Simulation)(Simulation)

Task 4Task 4: Assessment of Social, Economic, and Policy Drivers of : Assessment of Social, Economic, and Policy Drivers of Land Use/Land Management and Adaptation to Climate Land Use/Land Management and Adaptation to Climate ChangeChange

Task 5Task 5: Information Exchange and Collaborative Workshops on : Information Exchange and Collaborative Workshops on Soil Carbon Research in the Sahel.Soil Carbon Research in the Sahel.

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

COMPONENT 2: COMPONENT 2: Activities with Funding from Activities with Funding from

USAID/EGAT/NRM (Gray)USAID/EGAT/NRM (Gray)

Geographical focusGeographical focus: Sahel: Sahel

Task 1Task 1: Expansion of land use/land cover : Expansion of land use/land cover assessment (from Niamey workshop) to assessment (from Niamey workshop) to evaluate biomass and carbon status and assess evaluate biomass and carbon status and assess the potential for carbon sequestration through the potential for carbon sequestration through selected windows of eco-regions or a wall-to-selected windows of eco-regions or a wall-to-wall national coverage;wall national coverage;

Task 2Task 2: Participatory needs assessment and : Participatory needs assessment and planning workshops (incl. funding mechanisms) planning workshops (incl. funding mechanisms)

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Major QuestionMajor Question

Integration of biophysical assessment and Integration of biophysical assessment and modeling:modeling:

For all countries together?For all countries together?

For each country separately?For each country separately?

To be done mainly by Amadou with help from To be done mainly by Amadou with help from country experts?country experts?

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Task 1: Land use/cover Task 1: Land use/cover changeschanges

Objectives:Objectives: Quantify land use trendsQuantify land use trends Document human and climate impact on land Document human and climate impact on land

(improvement (improvement vsvs deterioration deterioration Reinforce national capacity buildingReinforce national capacity building

Issues:Issues: 2 approaches: eco-regions/windows 2 approaches: eco-regions/windows vsvs wall-to-wall wall-to-wall Transition land use – biomass – C stocksTransition land use – biomass – C stocks Identify focus areas/study sites with + and – Identify focus areas/study sites with + and –

anomalies (extreme change, biodiversity loss…)anomalies (extreme change, biodiversity loss…) Sahel-wide standardized systems of image analysisSahel-wide standardized systems of image analysis

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Task 1: Land use/cover changes Task 1: Land use/cover changes (cont.)(cont.)

Outcomes:Outcomes:

Consistent time series of imagesConsistent time series of images

Identified, spatially explicit areas of anomaliesIdentified, spatially explicit areas of anomalies

On land cover performance (ground estimation, On land cover performance (ground estimation, understanding of causal factors; conversion of understanding of causal factors; conversion of time-integrated NDVI into NPP for food and C;time-integrated NDVI into NPP for food and C;

National synthesis of changesNational synthesis of changes

PublicationsPublications

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Task 2: C stocks assessmentTask 2: C stocks assessment

Objectives:Objectives: Quantify C budget of a regionQuantify C budget of a region Understand changes in C stocks (management? Understand changes in C stocks (management?

Climate?)Climate?) Assess appropriate land use/management policiesAssess appropriate land use/management policies Capacity building at national levelCapacity building at national level

Issues:Issues: For which parts do data exist?For which parts do data exist? Spatially explicit? Variation or just mean Spatially explicit? Variation or just mean

values?values? In-depth in identified focus areas?In-depth in identified focus areas?

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Task 2: C stocks assessment Task 2: C stocks assessment (cont.)(cont.)

Outcomes:Outcomes:

Soil ground measurements + data baseSoil ground measurements + data base

National C budgetsNational C budgets

Assessment of temporal changes in C stocksAssessment of temporal changes in C stocks

Contribution of land use change to the aboveContribution of land use change to the above

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Task 3: Spatially explicit Task 3: Spatially explicit modelling modelling

Objectives:Objectives: Assemble all necessary data in 2005 Assemble all necessary data in 2005 Run models in 2006Run models in 2006 Use “predicted” climate changes for regions Use “predicted” climate changes for regions

(GCM)(GCM) Capacity buildingCapacity building

Issues:Issues: Need for large simulation/modelling Need for large simulation/modelling

workshop?workshop?

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Task 3: Spatially explicit Task 3: Spatially explicit modellingmodelling

Outcomes:Outcomes: Quantification of C fluxesQuantification of C fluxes Quantification of eco-zone changes Quantification of eco-zone changes

(+uncertainty)(+uncertainty) Sensitivity analysis on impact of climate Sensitivity analysis on impact of climate

changechange Sensitivity analysis on impacts of land Sensitivity analysis on impacts of land

use/managementuse/management Most ‘effective’ land use/management Most ‘effective’ land use/management

scenariosscenarios

(both biophysical+ socio-economic)(both biophysical+ socio-economic) Synthesis publicationSynthesis publication

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Task 4: Socioeconomic and Task 4: Socioeconomic and institutional drivers: Adaptation to institutional drivers: Adaptation to

climate changeclimate changeObjectives:Objectives: Non-physical drivers of land use changeNon-physical drivers of land use change Understand current management practicesUnderstand current management practices Level of adaptive responses/strategies to types of stressors Level of adaptive responses/strategies to types of stressors

(climate, policies etc.)(climate, policies etc.) Bottom-up cost-benefit analysisBottom-up cost-benefit analysis Field training in participatory methodsField training in participatory methods

Issues:Issues: What kind of data available? Who has them?What kind of data available? Who has them? National vulnerability assessments and NAPAs?National vulnerability assessments and NAPAs? National development priorities?National development priorities? Consequences of policies (‘maladaptation’?)?Consequences of policies (‘maladaptation’?)? Work in focus areas?Work in focus areas? How to achieve synergies between other national How to achieve synergies between other national

reports/assessments/inventories…reports/assessments/inventories…

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Task 4: Socioeconomic and Task 4: Socioeconomic and institutional drivers; Adaptation to institutional drivers; Adaptation to

climate change (cont.)climate change (cont.)Outcomes:Outcomes: Inventory of drivers (focus areas, “hotspots”)Inventory of drivers (focus areas, “hotspots”)

Inventory of current management practicesInventory of current management practices

Inventory of livelihood adaptive responses to various Inventory of livelihood adaptive responses to various stressorsstressors

Socio-economic drivers for land use decisions and policy Socio-economic drivers for land use decisions and policy prioritiespriorities

Livelihood benefits of CS options (financial + other)Livelihood benefits of CS options (financial + other)

Examples (ideally from focus areas) where improved Examples (ideally from focus areas) where improved adaptation increases mitigative capacityadaptation increases mitigative capacity

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Task 5: Information exchangeTask 5: Information exchange

Objectives:Objectives: Options for information exchange (web site, Options for information exchange (web site,

networks, email discussion. etc..)networks, email discussion. etc..) Small workshops to present researchSmall workshops to present research Improved collaboration – discuss partnersImproved collaboration – discuss partners

Issues: Issues: What do countries want most?What do countries want most? Who will be in charge of website?Who will be in charge of website? What should actually be on website?What should actually be on website?

Accra, January 2005Accra, January 2005

Component 2: GrayComponent 2: Gray

Land use/cover assessment with AGRHYMET Land use/cover assessment with AGRHYMET for entire Sahel for entire Sahel should be the basis for should be the basis for SEMSOC!SEMSOC!

raster-mapping approachraster-mapping approach

Workshop in March 2005Workshop in March 2005

SEMSOC areas will have prioritySEMSOC areas will have priority

Complete at least 2003 in 2005, the other Complete at least 2003 in 2005, the other two years (in 1985, 1972)two years (in 1985, 1972)