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Nigeria Election Watch UpdateNovember 2014: Summary Note
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Nigerian elections have earned the reputation of being a process of negotiated compromises with the same negotiators at the table – powerful elites and regional interest groups - leaving the average voter with little genuine choice and ownership of the process. With roughly half the governors’ seats up for grabs, a series of high pro�le political defections, lingering state of emergency in the North East, tensions within the military and growing skepticism regarding the Government’s inability to end the Boko Haram insurgency, Nigerians are more weary than ever about the nation’s political prospects. Hopes that the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) may �nally have credible opposition are being taken with a considerable pinch of salt by more cautious observers as the hesitation by the All Progressives’ Congress (APC) to �eld fresh political actors as candidates has given rise to the perception of a dearth of ideological leadership in the much vaunted opposition, leaving the electorate more despondent than optimistic. �e hesitation is founded in an internal battle for power between ‘young Governors’ who control vast state budgets and public machinery and elder statesmen as traditional party leaders who, ordinarily well funded, are now having to contend more and more with liquidity challenges.
High profile defections
► PartydecampingisastapleoftheNigerianpoliticalprocessbutthestakeshavebeenheightenedbytheemergenceoftheAPCasa‘national-level’opposition,leadingtoaseriesofhighprofiledefectionsaspoliticiansjostleforcontinuedrelevanceorstruggletoachievedefinedambitions
► ThedepartureoftheSpeakeroftheHouseofRepresentativesfromtherulingpartyismorelikelybasedonthecalculationthathischancesofsecuringtheSokotoStategovernor’sseatcome2015arehigherwiththeoppositionAPCwhichisalreadyinpowerinthatstate.
► In the context of Nigeria’s zero-sum politics, defections signify not only the potential transfer ofpoliticalgoodwillandsupportfromonepartytoanotherbutalsoanimportantshiftincontrolofstatemachineryandresources,andthusultimatelyelectoralvotes.Bothmajorpartieshavebenefitedfromthedefectionsbutitmustnotbeforgottenthatdefectionsareprimarilystrategicmovesbypoliticianstosecuretheircontinuedpoliticalrelevanceorachievedefiniteaspirations.
► Besidesdefections,otherchangesresultingfromelectionsandimpeachmentprocessesmeanthattherulingPDPnowhasatotalof21outof36statesunderitsbeltaheadofthegeneralelectionsbutthisdoesnotnecessarilymeanall21willautomaticallyvoteforaPDPcandidateatthepresidentialelectionson 14thFebruary.Previouspollshaveshownthatthereareotherconsiderationsthatcouldmakeastateundertheleadershipofonepartyvotefortheoppositionatthelevelofpresidentialelections.
Party tickets and the battle for power
► Gubernatorial elections: The current tenures of 29 of the 36 state governors are due to end next year, with only 10of them eligible for re-election for a second term. In those10 states, thepowerof incumbency shouldensure that thesitting governor is returned in many cases which may leadpartiestogiveautomaticsecondtermticketstotheireligiblegovernors,somethingthePDPhasalreadydone.Thepowerofincumbency remains present but is less potent in the 19 states wherefreshcandidatesmustemerge-12ofthosestatesarealreadyunderthePDP’scontrolbutitislikelytoseeastrongchallengefromtheoppositionAPCinstateslikeKatsinaintheNorth-West(homeofoppositionparty leaderandlikelyAPCpresidential candidate Buhari) andOndo in the South-West(traditional APC stronghold). Party primaries scheduled forvarious dates between November 29 and December 10 are goingtobehotlycontested.
NigeriaElectionWatchUpdateNovember2014:SummaryNote africapracticeR&BLtd,13BBishopOluwoleStreet,VictoriaIsland,Lagos,Nigeria
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► Presidential elections:TherulingpartyhassettledonPresidentJonathanforthepresidentialticketbutaquestionremainsastowhetherthePresidentwillchoosetoretainVice-PresidentSamboashisrunningmateordrophiminfavourofamoreinfluentialpersonalitythatcanpullmorevotesfromtheNorth-West.WebelievethisisunlikelyasJonathanwouldbewaryofco-optingaVPthatcouldbecometoopowerful;heismorelikelytorelyonstategovernors,legislatorsandpoliticalappointeestodelivertheneededvotesincontestedterritory.FortheAPC,theroadtothepresidentialelectionsisnotclear-cutwiththepartyinitiallyspeakingofaconsensuschoicefortheticketbutnowmovingtowardsorganisingprimaries.Althoughtherearenowfiveinterestedcontenders-formerheadofstateMuhammaduBuhariandformervice-presidentAtikuAbubakar,KanoStategovernorRabiuKwankwaso,ImoStateGovernorRochasOkorochaandownerofLeadershipNewspaperSamNda-Isaiah-itlooksasthoughtheraceisprimarilybetweenBuhariandAbubakar,withtheformerappearingthefavouritehavingsecuredthesupportoftheparty’sSouth-Westleadership.ThissupportcouldseeBuhariwintheprimariesbecausetheSouth-WesthasthemostgovernorsandmembersintheNationalAssemblywhichequatestoahighnumberofpartydelegates;italsomeansBuhari’srunningmateislikelytoemergefromthatregion.NonethelessNigerianpoliticsiscomplexenoughthatotherinterestscannotbesummarilydismissedandGovernorKwankwasoremainsanoutlierpossibilityfortheAPCticket,justasGovernorOkorocha,theonlyEasternerintherace,couldactuallybeanglingfortheVice-PresidencyunderoneoftheNortherncandidates.
Boko Haram and the importance of elections in the North-East
► A cease-fire agreement with Boko Haram precipitously announced by the governmentappeared repudiatedalmost immediatelywithattacks inBornoandAdamawaStates(includingtheseizureofanothertown),andmostrecentlybombingsin Yobe state. This has swelled disenchantmentwith the government’s handlingoftheinsurgency,ashastheperceivedmishandlingoftheprosecutionofservingSenatorNdumeofBornostateAPConchargesofterrorism,whilealsoincreasingconcernsmadevocalbytheopposition,aboutthepossibledisenfranchisementoftheentireregioncome2015.
► Interestingly SenatorNdume recently introduced a bill thatwould paveway foralternativeprovisionstobemadefor internallydisplacedpersons inBorno,YobeandAdamawaStatestovoteintheforthcomingelections.Howevertheregionisprobablymorepolitically important to the PDP than to theAPC simply becausemostpartsof theNorth-eastheldby insurgents areChristian-dominated (Mubi,Magari) andmore likely to support aChristianpresidential candidate. ThereforefailuretoconductelectionsinthoseareasismorelikelyalossofvotesforPresidentJonathanandthePDP,nottheoppositionAPC.
A weakening Naira squeezes election resources
► TheNairahasexperiencedsubstantialdepreciationinthelastfewweeksdroppingto171againstthedollarlastMondaywithforeignreservesdowntoUS$3.6billionthismonthas theCentralBank struggles to shoreup thecurrency.Governmentrecently announced a spending cut of 6% in 2015 (with a benchmark oil priceloweredfrom$78/barrelto$73/barrel),immediatecutsonspendingfortravelinthepublicsectoraswellasapotential ‘luxury’taxon items likechampagneandtravelbyprivatejet–itremainstobeseenifthesewillhavetheneededimpact.ThewithdrawalofdemandforcrudefromtheUSandtheconsequentdropinglobaloil prices spell trouble for an economy over reliant on oil while in terms of ongoing electioneering,thepressureonthenairameanslessresourcesavailabletopartiesandpoliticiansaheadofthepolls.
NigeriaElectionWatchUpdateNovember2014:SummaryNote africapracticeR&BLtd,13BBishopOluwoleStreet,VictoriaIsland,Lagos,Nigeria
Important changes to the political map in October have favoured the PDP:
• Ekiti -PDP’sFayosesworn-inasgovernorafteroustingAPC’sFayemiintheJunegubernatorialelections
• Adamawa - Deputy Governor Ngilari of PDP sworn-in as GovernorfollowingimpeachmentofAPC’sNyako
• Ondo-GovernorMimikodefectedfromtheLabourPartytothePDP
Gubernatorial Elections 2015
Following these developments, PDP is ruling in 21 states, APC in 14 and APGA in 1. However the current balance of power at state level does not necessarily reflect voting patterns for the presidential elections and there are other considerations that could make a ‘PDP state’ for example, vote an ‘APC president’. Additionally with only a few governors up for re-election and most stepping down, the power of incumbency will play a less potent role in the coming elections.
Peoples Democratic Party - PDP
All Progressives Congress - APC
All Progressives Grand Alliance - APGA
Governor eligible for re-election 10 states (3 PDP, 7 APC )
No gubernatorial elections in February7 states (1 APGA, 2 APC, 3 PDP)
Governor not eligible for election19 states (12 PDP, 7 APC)??
BornoBornoBorno
YobeYobeYobe
GombeGombeGombeBauchiBauchiBauchi
Jigawa
KadunaKadunaKaduna
KatsinaKatsinaKatsinaZamfaraZamfaraZamfara
SokotoSokotoSokoto
KebbiKebbiKebbi
NigerNigerNiger
KwaraKwaraKwara
OyoOyoOyo
OgunOgunOgun
LagosLagosLagosLagosLagosLagos
BenueBenueBenue
AdamawaAdamawaAdamawa
NassarawaNassarawaNassarawa
DeltaDeltaDelta
Rivers
ImoAbia
PlateauPlateauPlateau
Enugu
EbonyiCrossCrossRiverRiverCrossRiver
Abuja
AdamawaAdamawaAdamawaAdamawa
Rivers
ImoImoImoImoImo
BornoBornoBornoBornoBorno
GombeGombeGombeGombeKadunaKadunaKadunaKadunaKaduna
KwaraKwaraKwaraKwaraKwara
ZamfaraZamfaraZamfaraZamfara
NassarawaNassarawaNassarawaNassarawaOyoOyoOyoOyoOyo
OgunOgunOgunOgunOgunEdoEdoEdo
BayelsaBayelsaBayelsa
AnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambra
EkitiEkiti KojiKojiKoji
OndoOndoOndo
OsunOsun
Kano
TarabaTarabaTaraba
IbomIbomAkwaIbom
BenueBenueBenueBenueBenue ??TarabaTarabaTarabaTarabaTaraba
??
PlateauPlateauPlateauPlateau
??
YobeYobeYobeYobeYobe
??JigawaJigawaJigawaJigawaJigawa
??KanoKanoKanoKanoKano
??
KatsinaKatsinaKatsinaKatsinaKatsina
??
SokotoSokotoSokotoSokotoSokoto
??
KebbiKebbiKebbiKebbiKebbi
??
EnuguEnuguEnuguEnuguEnuguEnugu
EbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyi
EnuguEnuguEnuguEnuguEnugu
AnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambra
??EbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiCrossCrossCrossCrossEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyiEbonyi
??
AbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaImoImoImoImoImo
AbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbia
AnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraEbonyi
AnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraAnambraEbonyiEbonyi
??
RiversRiversRiversRiversRiversRiversRiversRiversRiversRivers
??
DeltaDeltaDeltaDeltaDelta ??
OgunOgunOgunOgun
LagosLagosLagosLagosLagosLagos ??RiverRiverRiverRiverRiver
??
BauchiBauchiBauchiBauchi
??NigerNigerNigerNigerNiger
??
AkwaAkwaAkwaAkwaAkwa
AbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbiaAbia
??
Peoples Democratic Party - PDP
All Progressives Congress - APC
All Progressives Grand Alliance - APGA
Governor eligible for re-election 10 states (3 PDP, 7 APC )
No gubernatorial elections in February7 states (1 APGA, 2 APC, 3 PDP)
Governor not eligible for election19 states (12 PDP, 7 APC)??
Peoples Democratic Party - PDP
All Progressives Congress - APC
Borno
Yobe
GombeBauchi
Jigawa
Kaduna
KatsinaZamfara
Sokoto
Kebbi
Niger
Kwara
Oyo
Ogun
Lagos
Benue
Adamawa
Nassarawa
Delta
Rivers
ImoAbia
Plateau
Enugu
EbonyiCrossRiver
Abuja
Edo
Bayelsa
Anambra
Ekiti Koji
Ondo
Osun
Kano
Taraba
AkwaIbom
?? ??
??
??????
????
??
?? ??
??
??
??
??
??
??
??
??
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NigeriaElectionWatchUpdateNovember2014:SummaryNote africapracticeR&BLtd,13BBishopOluwoleStreet,VictoriaIsland,Lagos,Nigeria
DECEMBER S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31
NOVEMBER S M T W T F S
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30
JANUARY S M T W T F S
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FEBRUARY S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
December 20141st APC House of Assembly primaries
4th APC Gubernatorial Primaries
6th PDP House of Representatives Primaries
7th PDP Senate Primaries
8th PDP Gubernatorial primaries
APC House of Representatives Primaries
9th APC Senate Primaries
10th PDP Presidential Primaries
APC Presidential Primaries
11th End of party primaries
30th Last day for withdrawal/ replacement of Presidential & National Assembly candidates
January 201513th Publication of official register of voters
Publication of list of nominated candidates for Presidential & National Assembly elections
Last day for withdrawal/ replacement of Gubernatorial & State Assembly candidates
27th Publication of list of nominated candidates for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
February 201512th Last day of campaigns for Presidential
& National Assembly elections
14th Presidential & National Assembly elections
26th Last day of campaigns for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
28th Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
November 2014November 201416th Campaigns commence for Presidential
& National Assembly elections
29th PDP House of Assembly Primaries
30th Campaigns commence for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
APC Internal Schedule
INEC Election timetable
PDP Internal schedule
DECEMBER S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31
NOVEMBER S M T W T F S
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30
JANUARY S M T W T F S
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FEBRUARY S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
December 20141st APC House of Assembly primaries
4th APC Gubernatorial Primaries
6th PDP House of Representatives Primaries
7th PDP Senate Primaries
8th PDP Gubernatorial primaries
APC House of Representatives Primaries
9th APC Senate Primaries
10th PDP Presidential Primaries
APC Presidential Primaries
11th End of party primaries
30th Last day for withdrawal/ replacement of Presidential & National Assembly candidates
January 201513th Publication of official register of voters
Publication of list of nominated candidates for Presidential & National Assembly elections
Last day for withdrawal/ replacement of Gubernatorial & State Assembly candidates
27th Publication of list of nominated candidates for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
February 201512th Last day of campaigns for Presidential
& National Assembly elections
14th Presidential & National Assembly elections
26th Last day of campaigns for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
28th Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
November 201416th Campaigns commence for Presidential
& National Assembly elections
29th PDP House of Assembly Primaries
30th Campaigns commence for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
APC Internal Schedule
INEC Election timetable
PDP Internal schedule
DECEMBER S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31
NOVEMBER S M T W T F S
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30
JANUARY S M T W T F S
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FEBRUARY S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
December 20141st APC House of Assembly primaries
4th APC Gubernatorial Primaries
6th PDP House of Representatives Primaries
7th PDP Senate Primaries
8th PDP Gubernatorial primaries
APC House of Representatives Primaries
9th APC Senate Primaries
10th PDP Presidential Primaries
APC Presidential Primaries
11th End of party primaries
30th Last day for withdrawal/ replacement of Presidential & National Assembly candidates
January 201513th Publication of official register of voters
Publication of list of nominated candidates for Presidential & National Assembly elections
Last day for withdrawal/ replacement of Gubernatorial & State Assembly candidates
27th Publication of list of nominated candidates for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
February 201512th Last day of campaigns for Presidential
& National Assembly elections
14th Presidential & National Assembly elections
26th Last day of campaigns for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
28th Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
November 201416th Campaigns commence for Presidential
& National Assembly elections
29th PDP House of Assembly Primaries
30th Campaigns commence for Gubernatorial & State House of Assembly elections
APC Internal Schedule
INEC Election timetable
PDP Internal schedule
2015 General Elections Calendar
Key Points:• 2015ElectionsTimetablereleasedbyINECinJanuaryfixedpartyprimariesbetweenOctober2ndandDecember11th.• Bothpartiesearlier scheduledprimaries inNovemberbuthave recentlymade changes to their internaltimetables–
primarilystrategicdecisionsbasedontheneedtoproperlytimeandorderthedisclosureofpartytickets.• Fortheopposition,allowingtherulingpartytoholdprimariesfirstgivesthepotentialadvantageofbeingabletopoach
disgruntledpartymemberswholostoutandarewillingtobreakranks.• APC hasmoved the primaries for national and state legislatures by twoweeks while gubernatorial and presidential
primariesweremovedbytwodays.Withthenewschedule,APCholds itsNationalAssemblyprimariesafter thePDPwhileitspresidentialprimariestakeplacethesamedayastherulingparty’s.
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NigeriaElectionWatchUpdateNovember2014:SummaryNote africapracticeR&BLtd,13BBishopOluwoleStreet,VictoriaIsland,Lagos,Nigeria
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NigeriaElectionWatchUpdateNovember2014:SummaryNote africapracticeR&BLtd,13BBishopOluwoleStreet,VictoriaIsland,Lagos,Nigeria