Accessing Capital In Response To Demand - Neil brown

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www.earthcp.com | Strictly Private & Confidential EARTH CAPITAL PARTNERS TBLI Accessing Capital In Response To Demand 10 th November 2011, London

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Transcript of Accessing Capital In Response To Demand - Neil brown

Page 1: Accessing Capital In Response To Demand - Neil brown

www.earthcp.com | Strictly Private & Confidential

EARTH CAPITAL PARTNERS

TBLI Accessing Capital In Response To Demand10th November 2011, London

Page 2: Accessing Capital In Response To Demand - Neil brown

www.earthcp.com 2Earth Capital Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

KEY DRIVERS

ey drivers for renewable energy growth include climate change mitigation, national and regional energy security and increasing energy demand

(1) IPCC (2008)(2) NYMEX(3) IEA (2010)(4) NEF (2011)

Climate Change Energy security

Increasing demand Falling costs

Long-term renewable capacity growth

Oil price volatility (US$/b)(2)Increasing global temperature(1)

Silicon Module Experience Curve(4)Global energy demand forecast(3)

Other drivers

• Economic stimulus

• New technologies

• Distributed generation

• Limiting future compliance costs

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www.earthcp.com | Strictly Private & Confidential3Earth Capital Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

McKinsey & Company. (2009.) “Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy: Version 2 of Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve.”, p. 7

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www.earthcp.com | Strictly Private & Confidential4Earth Capital Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

GROWTH

Build-up of renewables generation since 1990 and the forecast taking into account the broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries around the world including the national pledges to reduce emissions

Growth in renewable generation (1)

(1) World Energy Outlook 2010 (IEA)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

1990 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Renewable generation as a proportion of globabl generation

Renewable electricity generation (TWh)

Renewables % renewable generation

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Renewable capacity as a proportion of globabl capacity

Renewable electricity capacity (GW)Renewables % renewable capacity

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LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY

radual convergence of renewable technologies such as onshore wind with CCGT

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Marine- TidalMarine- Wave

STEG- Parabolic TroughSTEG- Parabolic Trough + Storage

Wind- OffshoreSTEG- Tower & Heliostat

STEG- LFRPV- c-Si

STEG- Tower & Heliostat w/storagePV- Thin Film

Geothermal- Binary PlantBiomass- Gasification

PV-c-Si TrackingBiomass- Anaerobic Digestion

Biomass- IncinerationGeothermal- Flash Plant

Municipal Sold WasteWind- Onshore

Coal FiredLandfill Gas

Natural Gas CCGT

Levelised cost of energy (US$/MWh)

LCOE

BNEF- 2011 EU-ETS EUA Forecast

Central Scenario

799

740

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INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY?

Sustained and significant investment activity to date(1) – looking ahead, an estimated US$5.7 trillion investment opportunity to 2035 in new renewable energy capacity globally(2)

(1) REN21 (2009)(2) IEA (2010)(3) NEF (2011)(4) SEFI (2010)

WEO refers to World Energy Outlook, an annual report by the International Energy Agency. The different forecasts relate to the amount of spend required to achieve different carbon dioxide targets to limit the impact of climate change.

US

$ b

n

“…the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply.” (4)

Annual investment forecast to 2030Annual investment in clean energy (2005-10)(3)

51.7

76.3

112.9

150.8

180.1 186.5

243

0

50

100

150

200

250

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

These figures refer to “clean energy” which includes investments in renewable energy, biofuels, energy efficiency, smart grid and other energy technologies, carbon capture and storage and infrastructure investments targeted purely at integrating clean energy

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xcluding large hydro. Renewable capacity figures based on known commissioned projects logged on the Bloomberg New Energy Finance desktop. EIA , IEA , Bloomberg New Energy Finance

loomberg New Energy Finance

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ew investment volume adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals

loomberg New Energy Finance, UNE P SE FI

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www.earthcp.com 9Earth Capital Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

enewable Energy: Progressing towards the 2020 target, European Commission

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www.earthcp.com 10Earth Capital Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

CS /Tremont HFRI

S&P 500MSCI World

Barclays Agg. Bond

DJ STOXX 50 FTSE 100

Citi Gov. Bond

CS High Yield II General CB Arb.

Dedicated Short EM

Eq Mkt Neutral

Event Driven Distressed

ED Multi-Strategy Risk Arb. FI

Global Macro Equity L/S

Managed Futures

Multi-Strategy

S&P 500 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

MSCI World 94% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Barclays Agg. Bond 1% -3% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

DJ STOXX 50 78% 81% -17% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

FTSE 100 76% 81% -10% 86% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Citi Gov. Bond -2% 9% 57% -33% -14% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CS High Yield II 58% 58% 20% 46% 48% 4% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CS / CS/Tremont 57% 63% 9% 54% 50% 1% 55% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Tremont CB Arb. 24% 27% 3% 25% 24% -6% 50% 50% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - -

Dedicated Short -77% -76% 7% -57% -59% 2% -56% -54% -28% 100% - - - - - - - - - - -

EM 59% 67% -1% 60% 59% -6% 53% 75% 36% -56% 100% - - - - - - - - - -

Eq Mkt Neutral 38% 44% 4% 28% 32% 17% 32% 42% 36% -32% 42% 100% - - - - - - - - -

Event Driven 60% 66% -7% 55% 54% -7% 68% 79% 58% -61% 70% 44% 100% - - - - - - - -

Distressed 57% 63% -6% 50% 49% -6% 68% 69% 52% -58% 61% 38% 93% 100% - - - - - - -

ED Multi-Strategy 54% 60% -9% 53% 51% -11% 61% 79% 58% -55% 70% 42% 94% 76% 100% - - - - - -

Risk Arb. 48% 54% 1% 38% 41% 11% 48% 54% 42% -51% 52% 37% 66% 55% 64% 100% - - - - -

FI 12% 16% 7% 14% 13% -3% 37% 43% 49% -13% 29% 28% 39% 36% 40% 19% 100% - - - -

Global Macro 22% 26% 23% 24% 22% 3% 25% 73% 33% -15% 50% 34% 42% 36% 44% 26% 42% 100% - - -

Equity L/S 66% 73% 5% 57% 57% 10% 54% 87% 39% -70% 72% 42% 75% 66% 73% 61% 27% 46% 100% - -

Managed Futures -1% 3% 24% -6% -3% 27% -8% 26% -7% 2% 3% 16% 1% 3% -2% -2% 2% 38% 16% 100% -

Multi-Strategy 27% 34% 1% 23% 22% 11% 43% 56% 56% -27% 39% 31% 50% 44% 52% 36% 37% 35% 48% 7% 100%

AVERAGE OF 36M CORRELATIONS

The data provided above for "Equity Market Neutral" does not take into consideration the impact of fraud-related hedge fund blow ups. Correlations are based on monthly performancesDow Jones Credit Suisse, Bloomberg

31 January 1994 to 31 December 2009

> 60%< +/-30%< -60%

Source: Credit Suisse Liquid Alternatives ,Alpha Strategies Group

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www.earthcp.com 11Earth Capital Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

CS/Tremont HFRI

S&P 500MSCI World

Barclays Agg. Bond

DJ STOXX 50 FTSE 100

Citi Gov. Bond

CS High Yield II General CB Arb.

Dedicated Short EM

Eq Mkt Neutral

Event Driven Distressed

ED Multi-Strategy Risk Arb. FI

Global Macro Equity L/S

Managed Futures

Multi-Strategy

S&P 500 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

MSCI World 98% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Barclays Agg. Bond 27% 32% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

DJ STOXX 50 88% 89% 8% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

FTSE 100 89% 91% 28% 91% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Citi Gov. Bond 25% 31% 78% 0% 18% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CS High Yield II 76% 79% 27% 72% 70% 10% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

CS/ CS/Tremont 72% 79% 19% 68% 73% 15% 80% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Tremont CB Arb. 61% 67% 30% 63% 66% 4% 83% 87% 100% - - - - - - - - - - - -

Dedicated Short -77% -72% -3% -71% -71% 7% -57% -46% -36% 100% - - - - - - - - - - -

EM 77% 85% 32% 73% 75% 26% 82% 93% 86% -52% 100% - - - - - - - - - -

Eq Mkt Neutral 61% 68% 28% 53% 55% 43% 54% 67% 54% -32% 70% 100% - - - - - - - - -

Event Driven 73% 78% 9% 72% 76% 2% 75% 96% 84% -52% 88% 65% 100% - - - - - - - -

Distressed 73% 75% 4% 71% 70% -2% 78% 92% 81% -51% 84% 58% 97% 100% - - - - - - -

ED Multi-Strategy 71% 76% 11% 70% 77% 4% 71% 95% 83% -51% 88% 67% 99% 91% 100% - - - - - -

Risk Arb. 64% 73% 40% 52% 65% 44% 67% 79% 69% -37% 82% 57% 71% 64% 72% 100% - - - - -

FI 65% 68% 32% 60% 58% 8% 83% 84% 90% -41% 83% 45% 78% 81% 74% 62% 100% - - - -

Global Macro 29% 37% 48% 15% 30% 41% 43% 70% 65% -4% 66% 53% 58% 50% 60% 65% 59% 100% - - -

Equity L/S 79% 87% 22% 76% 84% 19% 74% 93% 79% -57% 93% 69% 91% 82% 93% 82% 71% 61% 100% - -

Managed Futures -16% -10% 11% -25% -8% 38% -27% 14% -12% 15% 5% 20% 5% -7% 13% 17% -18% 49% 14% 100% -

Multi-Strategy 65% 71% 12% 66% 67% 1% 84% 95% 93% -39% 89% 60% 93% 92% 91% 74% 86% 62% 86% -5% 100%

36M CORRELATIONS TO AUG 201030 September 2007 to 31 August 2010

> 60%< +/-30%< -60%

The data provided above for "Equity Market Neutral" does not take into consideration the impact of fraud-related hedge fund blow ups. Correlations are based on monthly performancesDow Jones Credit Suisse, Bloomberg

Source: Credit Suisse Liquid Alternatives ,Alpha Strategies Group

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www.earthcp.com 12Earth Capital Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

WHAT DOES THIS INVESTMENT REQUIRE?

• Equity finance for development (and build?), debt on operational assets, but.....

• Debt requires certainty of cash flows, therefore equity needs security of debt security....

• Debt requires • Subsidy

• Certainty

• Time

• What return level on projects?• Some index-linking

• Greater reality?

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www.earthcp.com 13Earth Capital Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

Earth Capital Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.This material is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. It is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The contents of this document should not be treated as advice relating to legal, tax or investment matters and prospective investors are advised to consult their own professional advisers.

Neil BrownSenior [email protected] +44 (0) 20 7811 4500

CONTACT

LONDON RIO DE JANEIRO34 St James’s Street R.Ferreira de Almeida, 42St James’s Alto da Boa VistaLondon SW1A 1HD Rio de Janeiro – RJ - Brazil