Access to Halsnead Garden Village Outline Business Case · 2019-02-27 · 2.4.7 TUBA Outputs 19 2.5...

Access to Halsnead Garden Village Outline Business Case

Value for Money Report

22 May 2017

Mott MacDonald | Access to Halsnead Garden Village Outline Business Case

382112 | A | 1 | 22 May 2017 P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\10 Reporting\HalsneadGardenVillage_OBC_ValueforMoney_RevB_v1.docx

Issue and Revision Record

Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description

Rev A 19.05.2017 Michael Potter Sarah Pierce Tony Millward Client Draft

Rev B 22.05.2017 Michael Potter Sarah Pierce Tony Millward Client Draft

Information class: Standard

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captioned project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for any other purpose.

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Contents

Executive summary 1

1 Modelling Methodology and Assumptions 3

1.1 Overview 3

1.2 Transport Objectives of the Scheme 3

1.3 Summary of the Scheme 3

1.4 Scope of the Appraisal 8

1.5 Structure of Report 8

1.6 Methodology 9

1.7 Assumptions 9

1.7.1 Assessment Period 9

1.7.2 Modelled Years 9

1.7.3 Modelled Time Periods 9

1.7.4 Model Inputs 10

1.7.5 Annualisation 10

1.7.6 Scheme Costs for Appraisal 11

2 Economic Appraisal Results 12

2.1 The Transport Economic Assessment 12

2.2 Transport Appraisal in the Context of Dependent Development 12

2.2.1 Step 1: Determine whether new housing/employment is dependent on a transport scheme 12

2.2.2 Step 2: Identify an appropriate transport scheme 13

2.2.3 Step 3: Assess the benefits of the transport scheme in isolation 14

2.2.4 Step 4: Assess the benefits of the dependent development 14

2.3 Value for Money 15

2.4 Economic Appraisal Results Tables 17

2.4.1 Transport Economic Efficiency 17

2.4.2 Public Accounts 17

2.4.3 Accident Benefits 18

2.4.4 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits 18

2.4.5 Journey Time Reliability 18

2.4.6 Appraisal Summary Table 18

2.4.7 TUBA Outputs 19

2.5 Sensitivity Test – Comparison to SOBC 19

3 Conclusion and Value for Money Statement 20



Appendices 22

A. Transport Economic Efficiency Table 23

B. Public Accounts 24

C. Accident Benefits 25

D. Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits 26

E. Journey Time Reliability 27

F. Appraisal Summary Table 28

G. Main Economic Appraisal – TUBA Output 30

H. DfT Guidance 64


1


Executive summary

Mott MacDonald has undertaken an assessment of transport economic benefits for the

proposed access arrangements and off-site mitigation for the Halsnead Garden Village

development site. The appraisal has been undertaken in line with the Department for Transport

(DfT) Transport Appraisal Guidance (TAG) Unit A2.3 – Transport Appraisal in the Context of

Dependent Development.

The outcome of this study is a transport economic assessment for use at Outline Business Case

(OBC).

Transport Objectives of the Scheme

The key transport objectives of the scheme are to:

● Provide comprehensive access to Halsnead Garden Village;

● Provide off-site mitigation to accommodate the trips from Halsnead Garden Village on the

road network; and

● To ensure adequate capacity and resilience of the existing highway network post

development to facilitate future additional growth across Knowsley and the LCR; and

● Unlocking viability issues relating to the Halsnead Garden Village development thereby

ensuring that the multiple benefits for the LCR are maximised and realised at the earliest

opportunity.

Value for Money (VfM) Statement

The scheme is wholly designed and intended to facilitate and mitigate development trips

associated with Halsnead Garden Village. It is of particular note that this Single Investment

Fund bid relates primarily to the Housing thematic, as its clear intention is to facilitate earliest

possible comprehensive delivery of Halsnead Garden Village in accordance with the Local Plan

Core Strategy. Therefore, without the inclusion of development trips the transport benefits are

low as would be expected.

Accordingly, sensitivity test model assignments have been undertaken which include the

development trips in both the without and with scheme scenarios. This enables an

understanding of the transport benefits of the scheme when the development is in place, which

is the scenario that the transport scheme has been designed to address.

When the development traffic is included the scheme is forecast to deliver a present value of

benefits (PVB) of £51.2m over a standard appraisal period of 60 years. When the PVB is taken

together with the present value of scheme costs (PVC) of £14.6m the initial BCR is

calculated as 3.5.

This demonstrates that if the scheme was assessed as a whole it would provide High Value for

Money.

This is a higher VfM category than that reported at SOBC due to the decrease of optimism bias

from 44% to 15%, the inclusion of some inter peak benefits, and some adjustments to the

scheme designs (as detailed in the application form: question 2).


2


The calculation of the initial and adjusted BCR value when the transport scheme is assessed in

isolation are given in Table 1. The monetised economic benefits (based on transport modelling

outcomes) show that the scheme produces an initial BCR of 0.54 from Present Value of

Benefits of £7.6m (2010 prices, discounted to 2010) and a cost to public accounts of £14.1m

(2010 prices, discounted to 2010).

The net benefit of the dependent housing is given in Table 2. This has a benefit of £86.2m.

Table 1: Assessment summary (in £000s, 2010 prices if not stated)

Initial BCR Adjusted BCR

Scheme Costs in 2017 prices 14,110 14,110

Scheme Costs including risk and optimism bias of 15% in 2017 prices 19,865 19,865

(All entries below are present values discounted to 2010, in 2010 prices)

Scheme Costs (including optimism bias of 15%) 15,136 15,136

Main Transport Economic Benefits 7,586 7,586

Journey Time Reliability Benefits - 1,045

Present Value of Costs (PVC) 14,093 14,093

Present Value of Benefits (PVB) 7,586 8,631

Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) 0.54 0.61

Table 2: Benefits of Dependant Development

Item Value

Hectarage of Dependent Development 71

Dependent Houses 1,600

Net Social Value (£,000) 103,600

Transport External Costs (£,000) 2,490

Total (£,000) 101,100

According to DfT guidance and criteria1, the initial BCR of 0.54 calculated based on transport

benefits alone yields Poor Value for Money. The modified BCR (including an estimation of

agglomeration and welfare benefits) is 0.61 which also represents Poor Value for Money.

The benefit of the dependent development is £101.1m which represents large beneficial Value

for Money.

The full VfM assessment includes:

● Journey time benefits to transport users;

● Dependent development benefits;

● Journey time reliability benefits;

● Accident benefits; and

● Qualitative benefits presented in AST.

It can be concluded from this assessment that, whilst the BCR is low, when the dependent

development benefits are included the quantifiable elements of the access to Halsnead Garden

Village scheme produces a Strong Value for Money case.

1 Value for Money Assessment: Advice Note for Local Transport Decision Makers, Department for Transport

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/267296/vfm-advice-local-decision-makers.pdf


3


1 Modelling Methodology and Assumptions

1.1 Overview

Mott MacDonald has undertaken an assessment of transport economic benefits for the

proposed access arrangements and off-site mitigation for the Halsnead Garden Village

development site.

The appraisal has been undertaken in line with the Department for Transport (DfT) Transport

Appraisal Guidance (TAG) Unit A2.3 – Transport Appraisal in the Context of Dependent

Development.

The development site is located at the heart of the Liverpool City Region (LCR), and at circa

175 hectares in size it represents a significant opportunity for a new high quality mixed-use

settlement based around Garden Village principles. Positioned within the central investment and

growth corridor, which runs along the M62 from Manchester to Liverpool City Centre and with a

location on the M62/M57 ‘Tarbock Island’ intersection, the development has the potential to

provide exceptional transport links and create an impressive gateway entrance to the LCR from

the east.

1.2 Transport Objectives of the Scheme




road network; and





opportunity.

The economic appraisal presented in this report captures these objectives and quantifies them

in monetary terms.

1.3 Summary of the Scheme

The scheme being assessed includes:

● the creation of nine high quality, all purpose, gateway access points to the development

sites; and

● the introduction of highway capacity improvements at seven junctions to mitigate the impacts

of development traffic on the surrounding highway network.

The scheme comprises of six new roundabout junctions along Windy Arbor Road, Fox’s Bank

lane and Cronton Road plus a signalised junction on Licker Lane and a priority junction on

Cronton Road, all of which will allow access to the proposed development site. There will also

be a dedicated pedestrian/cyclist access point on Lickers Lane. The scheme considers seven


4


off-site junction enhancements to mitigate the impacts of the development. Table 3 lists the nine

on-site junctions and Table 4 lists the seven off-site junctions. Figure 1 and Figure 2 presents

the new site accesses, and Figure 3 presents the site context.

Table 3: On-Site Junctions

New Junction Sites (9) Scheme Overview

Windy Arbor Road, approximately 125m north of M62 junction 6

3 arm roundabout

Windy Arbor Road, opposite St. Nicholas’s Parish Church on the site of a former garden centre

3 arm roundabout

Lickers Lane Pedestrian/Cycle Access

Lickers Lane, opposite the community centre Signalised Junction

Fox’s Bank Lane, opposite Fairchild Farm 3-arm roundabout

Fox’s Bank Lane, south of Cherry Tree Farm and north of the M62 overpass

3-arm roundabout

Cronton Road, west Ghost island priority junction

Cronton Road, central 3-arm roundabout

Cronton Road, east 3-arm roundabout

Table 4: Off-Site Junctions

Existing Junctions (7) Rational for improvement

Windy Arbor Road / Lickers Lane To enable development trips to exit Lickers Lane

Lickers Lane / Fox’s Bank Lane To enable development trips to exit Lickers Lane

Cronton Road / Fox’s Bank Lane To mitigate traffic impacts during the PM peak and improve the road safety of this junction

Windy Arbor Road / Dragon Lane To allow development trips to access local destinations

Dragon Lane / Stoney Lane To improve access to local destinations

Stoney Lane / Cumber Lane To mitigate traffic impacts

Tarbock Island (M62 Junction 6) To mitigate traffic impacts


5


Figure 1: Site Access Junctions


6


Figure 2: Off-Site Junctions


7


Figure 3: Site Context


8


1.4 Scope of the Appraisal

The economic assessment uses the Department for Transport (DfT) TUBA 1.9.7 (Transport

Users Benefit Assessment) software, which carries out an economic assessment in accordance

with published DfT guidance2. The assessment is based on data from the Whiston SATURN

model. The Whiston SATURN model is a junction based model developed to assess the

Halsnead Garden Village development site and is appropriate for calculating a BCR for the

proposed transport improvements.

The scheme has been assessed in line with TAG Unit A2.3 - transport appraisal in the context

of dependent development, July 2016. This unit sets out a four step process for assessing

schemes where the development is dependent on the transport scheme:

● Step 1: Determine whether new housing/employment is dependent on a transport scheme;

● Step 2: Identify an appropriate transport scheme;

● Step 3: Assess the benefits of the transport scheme in isolation; and

● Step 4: Assess the benefits of the dependent development.

The economic benefits calculated for the scheme include:

● Transport economic benefits (TAG A1 and TAG A2.3). The transport economic appraisal

has been undertaken using the TUBA program, which carries out an economic appraisal in

accordance with published DfT guidance. This is based on trip and cost matrices from the

Whiston SATURN Model and travel cost changes implied by the proposed schemes.

● Journey reliability benefits (TAG A1). The estimate of journey time reliability benefits is

made to satisfy the ‘Reliable journeys’ sub-objectives within the ‘Economy’ section of

scheme appraisal. The calculations assume that the model area is dominated by urban

regions and therefore uses the urban journey time reliability calculations that are set out in

the TAG unit.

● Accident benefits. Estimation of accident benefits has been carried out using COBALT, the

DfT’s tool for accident appraisal.

1.5 Structure of Report

The remainder of this report discusses the following elements of the development of the

modelling and economic case:

● Methodology;

● Assumptions;

● Transport Economic Assessment;

● Journey Time Reliability;

● Appraisal Summary Table (AST); and

● Value for Money Statement.

2 Department for Transport: webtag-tag-unit-a1-1-cost-benefit-analysis

Department for Transport: webtag-tag-transport-appraisal-process


9


1.6 Methodology

The economic assessment has been carried out in line with DfT Guidance3 with a number of

relevant simplifying assumptions adopted specifically to produce Value for Money (VfM)

assessments.

The main transport modelling platform is the Whiston SATURN model. The Whiston SATURN

model has a base year of 2015 and includes up to date transport forecasts for the Liverpool City

Region4. The model was developed based on the Liverpool City Region Transport Model

(LCRTM) with extra network and zone detail added in the study area of Whiston, east Huyton,

Prescot and Rainhill areas. Within the study area, full junction coding is included (SATURN

simulation), outside of this link based speed flow curves are applied.

1.7 Assumptions

In order to arrive at the economic benefits, a number of modelling and assessment assumptions

have been adopted. The TAG assessment forms the basis of the approach with specific

assumptions and simplifications made to allow best use of available local modelling data, the

perceived nature of the schemes and the longevity of their impacts.

The Whiston SATURN model covers the entire Liverpool City Region. As such measures have

been taken to ensure that the benefits included in this assessment are relevant to the scheme

by only including benefits to/from/within the area of influence of the scheme as determined by

model flow difference and delay plots. This is the Whiston model study area plus adjacent

origins and destinations along the M62 and M57.

1.7.1 Assessment Period

The access to Halsnead Garden Suburb scheme will impact on both local and strategic traffic

movements. On this basis, the TAG recommended assessment period of 60 years has been

adopted.

1.7.2 Modelled Years

The scheme is due for implementation during the period 2018-2021. The economic assessment

has been based on 2020 and 2030 traffic modelling where data is readily available from the

Whiston model. These results are then interpolated and extrapolated accordingly (in the

modelling and appraisal tools) to obtain economic benefits for all other years, which are then

discounted to 2010.

1.7.3 Modelled Time Periods

The traffic modelling has been undertaken for the following weekday time periods:

● AM (0800 – 0900)

● PM (1700 – 1900)

For assessment, time period factors are used to convert the model outputs to be representative

of annual totals (see Section 1.7.5).

3 Department for Transport: webtag-tag-unit-a1-1-cost-benefit-analysis

Department for Transport: webtag-tag-transport-appraisal-process

Department for Transport: webtag-tag-unit-a2-3-transport-appraisal-in-the-context-of-dependent-development

4 Land south of Whiston Transport Assessment


10


The assessment does not include any assessment of the scheme benefits in the evenings and

weekends.

1.7.4 Model Inputs

Traffic growth between the 2015 base year and 2020/2030 forecast years has been estimated

using TEMPRO 7.0 trip end projections using outputs from the LCRTM variable demand model.

There is an overall constraint on trip numbers at LCRTM study area level to match the growth

forecast in version 7.0 of National Trip End Model Forecasts (NTEM). This method of producing

forecast trip matrices is in accordance with DfT guidance on forecasting and uncertainty, as set

out in TAG Unit M4.

Two matrices have been produced:

● Without development trips

● With development trips

In both cases the overall matrix totals have been constrained to TEMPRO.

The trips forecast for the development site have been estimated using TRICS (see Table 4) and

added to the matrix. The overall matrix over the LCRTM study has then been re-constrained to

the original TEMPRO growth by factoring the non-development trips.

Table 5: Development Site Trips

Site Time Period Purpose Origins Destinations

North (Housing/Retail/School) AM (0800-0900) Car Commute 292 112

North (Housing/Retail/School) AM (0800-0900) Car Other 430 204

North (Housing/Retail/School) AM (0800-0900) Car Business 40 16

North (Housing/Retail/School) PM (1700-1800) Car Commute 100 183

North (Housing/Retail/School) PM (1700-1800) Car Other 239 378

North (Housing/Retail/School) PM (1700-1800) Car Business 29 51

South (Employment) AM (0800-0900) Car Commute 28 99

South (Employment) AM (0800-0900) Car Business 6 18

South (Employment) AM (0800-0900) OGV 9 8

South (Employment) PM (1700-1800) Car Commute 96 21

South (Employment) PM (1700-1800) Car Business 19 4

South (Employment) PM (1700-1800) OGV 5 3

Source: Land south of Whiston Transport Assessment

The site access and off-site junction improvements have been coded into the Whiston SATURN

model using the same coding procedures used in the development of the model.

1.7.5 Annualisation

Annualisation factors convert benefits calculated for each model time period into totals for the

full year. To achieve this, annualisation factors developed for LCRTM have been adopted.

These factors have been used and accepted by the DfT on funding application projects such as

Local Sustainable Transport Fund, Local Pinch Point applications, and the Better Bus Fund.

The annualisation factors are robust and suitable for the current assessments.

The interpeak period has not modelled but would contribute to the scheme benefits. Therefore,

analysis has been undertaken of traffic counts near to the development site (ten sites in total

within a 1 mile radius). The average hour inter peak traffic is around 90% of the AM peak traffic


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and 71% of the PM peak traffic. In order to include inter peak benefits in a robust manner,

revised AM and PM annualisation factors have been calculated which apply these proportions to

a three hour inter peak.

Table 6: Annualisation Factors

Time Period Initial Factor Adjusted Factor (to include inter peak)

AM 637 980

PM 675 946

1.7.6 Scheme Costs for Appraisal

The scheme cost components is given in Table 7 below. In line with cost guidance in TAG A1.2 a quantified risk assessment (QRA) has been undertaken and an Optimism Bias of 15% has been applied in the appraisal.

Table 7: Scheme Costs

Component Cost

Access Junctions £6,389,790

Off-Site Improvements (Junctions 2-7) £2,887,849

Tarbock Island (Junction 1) £4,832,524

Sub-Total £14,110,163

QRA Cost £3,163,783

Scheme Total £17,273,946

Optimism Bias (15%) £2,591,092

TOTAL £19,865,038


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2 Economic Appraisal Results

2.1 The Transport Economic Assessment

The economic assessment has been carried out in line with DfT guidance with a number of

relevant simplifying assumptions adopted in order to produce a VfM assessment and maximise

use of available modelling evidence. The transport economic benefits of the schemes have

been calculated using the TUBA program (Version 1.9.7), which carries out an economic

assessment in accordance with published DfT guidance. The analysis uses transport modelling

results from the Whiston SATURN model that reflect travel time and traffic reassignment

impacts between the with transport scheme to the without transport scheme scenarios.

2.2 Transport Appraisal in the Context of Dependent Development

The below sections set out the steps undertaken in the transport appraisal.

2.2.1 Step 1: Determine whether new housing/employment is dependent on a transport

scheme

There is currently no public access to the Halsnead Garden Village development site, which

largely comprises the former Halsnead Park Estate and is contained by a perimeter boundary

wall. Therefore, in the context of TAG A2.3, the new housing and employment is wholly

dependent on the transport scheme.

In addition, Halsnead Garden Village has been designated a Sustainable Urban Extension

(SUE) in the Knowsley Local Plan Core Strategy. SUE2 sets out a number of development

principles for the SUE sites including:

“Development within the Sustainable Urban Extensions must demonstrate a comprehensive

approach to the development of the relevant Sustainable Urban Extension and to infrastructure

provision.”

“be of a high design quality which enhances local distinctiveness amd identify (incorporating

localised design features where appropriate) and provides high levels of physical and visual

integration and connectivity with adjacent urban development.”

“Proposals for development within each of these locations will only be granted planning

permission where they are consistent with a single detailed masterplan for the whole of the

Sustainable Urban Extension which is approved by the Council. The masterplan should accord

with development plan policy and any associated Supplementary Planning Document”5

Policy SUE2c of the Local Plan Core Strategy provides further specific development

requirements for the Halsnead Garden Village site, including that it should deliver:

“Safe and convenient highway access for the sites together with a well connected internal road

system and traffic mitigation measures, including any measures needed to address the impact

of the development on the traffic generation in the wider area.”

5 Core Strategy Policy SUE2 (4)


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The proposed scheme is required to meet these conditions and therefore there is a clear and

absolute dependency between the development and the transport components.

2.2.2 Step 2: Identify an appropriate transport scheme

Transport modelling and junction assessments were undertaken as part of the ‘Land South of

Whiston Transport Assessment’6 to identify appropriate site access arrangements and off-site

mitigation.

Modelling has been undertaken for two scenarios:

● Scenario A - without the new development and without any form of transport scheme

● Scenario C - with the new development and with the transport scheme

A comparison of volume/capacity (V/C) has been undertaken between the two scenarios to

determine if the transport scheme is appropriate. This has found that with the development and

transport scheme in place only a small number of links become over capacity (defined as V/C >

85%) that were not already over capacity without the development. These links were already

close to capacity and with the scheme in place are only slightly over capacity (V/C < 90%). This

comparison is presented in Figure 4 and Figure 5 below for the AM period.

Figure 4: Links over capacity in Scenario A (no development, no transport scheme): AM

6 Land South of Whiston Transport Assessment Final issue.pdf


14


Figure 5: Links over capacity in Scenario C (with development, with transport scheme): AM

2.2.3 Step 3: Assess the benefits of the transport scheme in isolation

The benefits of the transport scheme in isolation have been assessed through the modelling of

two scenarios:

● Scenario A - without the dependent new development and without any form of transport

scheme

● Scenario D - without the dependent new development but with the transport scheme

The assessment of the transport scheme in isolation produces an initial BCR of 0.54 from

Present Value of Benefits of £7.6m (2010 prices, discounted to 2010) and a Present Value of

Costs of £14.1m (2010 prices, discounted to 2010).

This demonstrates that without any development in place the scheme has a slight positive

impact on the network. However it should be noted that the scheme is wholly designed and

intended to facilitate and mitigate development trips associated with Halsnead Garden Village. It

is of particular note that this Single Investment Fund bid relates primarily to the Housing

thematic, as it its clear intention is to facilitate earliest possible comprehensive delivery of

Halsnead Garden Village, and therefore without the inclusion of these trips the transport

benefits are low as would be expected. Accordingly, Section 2.5 provides details of a sensitivity

test where the development trips are included.

2.2.4 Step 4: Assess the benefits of the dependent development

The benefits of the dependent development have been calculated using a two step process:

● Estimating the ‘planning gain’ from the dependent new development; and

● Subtracting the net external costs.

The ‘planning gain’ consists of the uplift in land values arising from the development. This has

been calculated using the DfT spreadsheet ‘tag-workbook-valuing-housing-impacts.xlsx’. The


15


land values have been taken from those provided in this spreadsheet which are sourced from

the ‘VOA Property Market Report 2011’using the North West values as the most suitable for this

location.

The benefits of the dependent employment land have not been calculated in this assessment

given the lack of a TAG value. However these directly related benefits are of significant note

and this is reported in the accompanying Land Use and Economic Development Report.7

Table 8: Land Details

Item Value (£'000/ha) Source

Value of land in residential use 1,500 Liverpool Value

Value of land in existing use (Agricultural or Industrial) 17.29 Lancashire Value

Externality Value (Perpetuity Value) 27.4 Agricultural Land (intensive)

In this instance the net external costs have been calculated for transport only. As advised earlier

in 2.2.1, there is no public right of way to the land, so any loss of amenity value is expected to

be low and there is no meaningful basis on which to quantify this for the purposes of this

assessment.

The transport external costs have been calculated based on:

● Scenario D - without the new development but with the transport scheme


Where the transport external costs are calculated through the following equation:

where cij and tij are the cost per trip and the number of trips between zones i and j. The

superscripts 1 and 0 denote the with and without new development and the superscript D

denotes the matrix of trips generated by the development.


Item Value





Total (£,000) 101,113

2.3 Value for Money

Table 10 presents the initial BCR calculated from assessment of the Halsnead Garden Village

scheme as a transport scheme in isolation. In line with the appraisal guidance, a modified BCR

has been calculated by including journey reliability benefits that arise from the transport

interventions. In addition, the benefits of the dependent development have been calculated.

7 170516HalsneadGardenVillageLanduseandeconomicdevelopmentreport.


16













As a transport scheme in isolation, a present value of benefits (PVB) of £7.6m is forecast over a

standard appraisal period of 60 years. When the PVB is taken together with the present value of

scheme costs (PVC) of £14.1m the initial BCR is calculated as 0.54. According to Department

for Transport guidance, the BCR of 0.54 represents Poor Value for Money.

However this is for the assessment of the transport scheme in isolation and as discussed in

section 2.2.3, this represents only a small and secondary element of the benefits of this

scheme.

Accident benefits account for £0.63m of the benefits.

The scheme in isolation produces changes in travel costs that, in turn, produce journey time

reliability benefits that have been calculated and included in the calculation of the modified

BCR. These account for an additional £1.0m which is equivalent to 14% of the main TUBA-

based economic benefits.

Therefore, the modified BCR is more indicative of the quantifiable economic benefits of the

transport scheme in isolation. This is calculated as 0.61.

The assessment of the transport scheme in isolation represents only a proportion of the scheme

benefits. The benefit of the dependent development is £101.1m which represents large

beneficial Value for Money.

2.3.1.1 Spread of Benefits

The economic appraisal shows that the scheme benefits all road users and affects both

strategic movements and local traffic, with approximately a 66% split of trips under 20kms and

34% over 20kms. This reflects the nature of the scheme, with a number of local junction

improvements plus the strategic Tarbock Island Interchange.

Figure 6 below shows the spread of user benefits over journey distances.


17


Figure 6: Benefits by Distance

Sectorised benefits are presented in Appendix G and indicate that the main benefits of the

transport scheme are to trips to/from/within Knowsley.

2.4 Economic Appraisal Results Tables

The economic results are summarised below.

2.4.1 Transport Economic Efficiency

The completed Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) table is included in Appendix A. The

transport modelling has shown that the access to Halsnead Garden Village scheme produces

reductions in delay and journey time for traffic. The TEE table reflects this and shows that the

transport interventions when assess in isolation result in some benefits for all road users.

The overall Present Value of Transport Economic Efficiency Benefits is £7.6m (2010 prices,

discounted to 2010). This is shown in Appendix A.

2.4.2 Public Accounts

The impact on public accounts for the access to Halsnead Garden Village scheme is set out

Appendix B and is a cost to the public accounts of £14.1m. There is a cost of £1.0m in Indirect

Tax Costs for central government.

6%

30%

9%

0%

17%

16%

1%

Sum of 1 to 5 kms

Sum of 5 to 10 kms

Sum of 10 to 15 kms

Sum of 15 to 20 kms

Sum of 20 to 50 kms

Sum of 50 to 100 kms

Sum of >100 kms


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2.4.3 Accident Benefits

Accident benefits have been calculated based on the scenarios:

● Scenario A - without the new development and without any form of transport scheme


This is in line with DfT guidance as presented in Appendix

Accident benefits provide a benefit of £0.63m. This is shown in Appendix C.

2.4.4 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits

The AMCB details are set out in Appendix D and show an overall PVC of the scheme as

£14.1m against an overall PVB of £7.6m having allowed for impacts of indirect taxation on the

economy and greenhouse gases.

This gives an initial BCR of 0.54 if the scheme is considered in isolation relative to transport.

2.4.5 Journey Time Reliability

The journey time reliability details are set out in Appendix E and show a benefit of £1.0m.

This gives an adjusted BCR of 0.61 if the scheme is considered in isolation relative to transport.

2.4.6 Appraisal Summary Table

The Appraisal Summary Table (AST) provides details of the impacts of the scheme. These

include both qualitative and quantitative benefits as required by DfT guidance. The quantitative

benefits are given in the AST in Appendix F. The qualitative benefits are given in Table 11 and

show that the scheme provides the following impacts:

Table 11: Estimated Impacts of the Scheme in the AST

Impacts Sub-impacts Estimated Impact

Economy Business users & transport providers Low

Reliability impact on Business users Medium

Regeneration N/A

Wider Impacts Assessed Separately

Environmental Noise N/A

Air Quality N/A

Greenhouse gases Low

Landscape N/A

Townscape N/A

Heritage of Historic resources N/A

Biodiversity N/A

Water Environment N/A

Social Commuting and Other users Low

Reliability impact on Commuting and Other users

Medium

Physical activity N/A

Journey quality N/A

Accidents Low


19


Impacts Sub-impacts Estimated Impact

Security N/A

Access to services N/A

Affordability N/A

Severance N/A

Option values N/A

Public Accounts Cost to Broad Transport Budget High

Indirect Tax Revenues Low

2.4.7 TUBA Outputs

Appendix G presents the full TUBA outputs. All warnings have been checked and found to be

due to changes in the network structure due to addition of additional site access points (zones

482 and 483).

2.5 Sensitivity Test – Comparison to SOBC




road network; and





opportunity.

As a sensitivity test model assignments have been undertaken which include the development

trips in both the without and with scheme scenarios. This enables an understanding of the

transport benefits of the scheme when the development is in place, which is the scenario that

the transport scheme has been designed to address and is therefore more relevant for appraisal

purposes.

When the development traffic is included the scheme is forecast to deliver a present value of

benefits (PVB) of £51.2m over a standard appraisal period of 60 years. When the PVB is taken

together with the present value of scheme costs (PVC) of £14.6m the initial BCR is calculated

as 3.5.

This demonstrates that if the scheme was assessed as a whole it would provide High Value for

Money.

This is a higher VfM category than that reported at SOBC due to the decrease of optimism bias

from 44% to 15%, the inclusion of some inter peak benefits, and some adjustments to the

scheme designs (as detailed in the application form: question 2).


20


3 Conclusion and Value for Money

Statement

Economic benefits for the access to Halsnead Garden Village scheme have been calculated

based on the preferred options for the interventions. The analysis provides an indication of likely

economic benefits and BCRs for the scheme using TUBA and other DfT methodologies. The

scheme is designed to:



road network; and





opportunity.

The appraisal has been undertaken in line with TAG Unit A2.3 – Transport Appraisal in the

Context of Dependent Development. The site has been found to be wholly dependent on the

transport scheme which means that the benefits when the transport scheme is assessed in

isolation are low. However, when more appropriately combined with the dependent

development benefits there is a Strong Value for Money case.

A sensitivity test of including the development trips in the transport benefit calculation produces

a BCR of 3.5. This demonstrates that if the transport scheme was assessed as a whole it would

provide High Value for Money.

The calculation of the initial and adjusted BCR value are given in Table 12 for the transport

scheme assessed in isolation. The monetised economic benefits (based on transport modelling

outcomes) show that the scheme when assessed in isolation produces an initial BCR of 0.54

from Present Value of Benefits of £7.6m (2010 prices, discounted to 2010) and a cost to public

accounts of £14.1m (2010 prices, discounted to 2010).

The net benefit of the dependent housing is given in Table 13. This has a benefit of £86.2m.


21














Item Value





Total (£,000) 101,113

According to DfT guidance and criteria8, the initial BCR of 0.54 calculated based on transport

benefits alone yields Poor Value for Money. The modified BCR (including reliability benefits) is

0.61, which represents Poor Value for Money.

The benefit of the dependent development is £101.1m which represents large beneficial Value

for Money.

The full VfM assessment includes:

● Journey time benefits to transport users;

● Dependent development benefits;

● Journey time reliability benefits;

● Accident benefits; and

● Qualitative benefits presented in AST.

It can be concluded from this assessment that whilst the BCR is low if the transport scheme is

assessed in isolation, when the dependent development benefits are included the quantifiable

elements of the access to Halsnead Garden Village scheme produces a Strong Value for

Money case.

8 Value for Money Assessment: Advice Note for Local Transport Decision Makers, Department for Transport

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/267296/vfm-advice-local-decision-makers.pdf


22


Appendices

A. Transport Economic Efficiency Table 23

B. Public Accounts 24

C. Accident Benefits 25

D. Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits 26

E. Journey Time Reliability 27

F. Appraisal Summary Table 28

G. Main Economic Appraisal – TUBA Output 30

H. DfT Guidance 64


23


A. Transport Economic Efficiency Table

ALL MODES BUS and COACH OTHER

TOTAL Passengers

930 - -

533 - -

107 - -

- -

1,570 (1a) - -

ALL MODES BUS and COACH OTHER

TOTAL Passengers

4,307 - -

1,830 - -

-1,530 - -

0 - -

4,607 (1b) - -

Goods Vehicles

Business Cars &

LGVs Passengers Freight Passengers

741 495 246 - - - -

670 116 554 - - - -

53 -45 98 - - - -

0 0 0 - - - -

1,464 (2) 566 898 - - - -

Freight Passengers

0 - - - -

0 - - - -

0 - - - -

0 - - - -

0 (3) - - - -

0 (4) - -

1,464

7,641

Notes: Benefits appear as positive numbers, while costs appear as negative numbers. All entries are discounted present values, in 2010 prices and values

TOTAL

Present Value of Transport Economic

Efficiency Benefits (TEE) (6) = (1a) + (1b) + (5)

NET BUSINESS IMPACT (5) = (2) + (3) + (4)

Other business impacts

Developer contributions 0 -

Investment costs

Grant/subsidy

Subtotal

Operating costs

Business

User benefits

Travel time

Vehicle operating costs

User charges

During Construction & Maintenance

Subtotal

Private sector provider impacts

Revenue

OTHER 4,607 -

User charges -1,530 -

During Construction & Maintenance 0 -

Travel time 4,307 -

Vehicle operating costs 1,830 -

Non-business: Other ROAD RAIL

User benefits Private Cars and LGVs Passengers

NET NON-BUSINESS BENEFITS:

COMMUTING 1,570 -

User charges 107 -

During Construction & Maintenance 0 -

Travel time 930 -

Vehicle operating costs 533 -

Economic Efficiency of the Transport System (TEE)

Non-business: Commuting ROAD RAIL

User benefits Private Cars and LGVs Passengers


24


B. Public Accounts

Public Accounts (PA) Table

ALL MODES ROAD Bus and Coach RAIL Other

Local Government Funding TOTAL Infrastructure

Revenue -1,640 -1,640 0 0 0

Operating Costs 0 0 0 0 0

Investment Costs 0 0 0 0 0

Developer and Other Contributions 0 0 0 0 0

Grant/Subsidy Payments 0 0 0 0 0

NET IMPACT -1,640 (7) -1,640 0 0 0

Central Government Funding

Revenue 0 0 0 0 0

Operating costs 0 0 0 0 0

Investment Costs 15,733 15,733 0 0 0

Developer and Other Contributions 0 0 0 0 0

Grant/Subsidy Payments 0 0 0 0 0

NET IMPACT 15,733 (8) 15,733 0 0 0

Indirect Tax Revenues 1,043 1,043 0 0 0

TOTAL Present Value of Costs (PVC) 14,093 (9) = (7) + (8)

Notes: Costs appear as positive numbers, while

revenues and ‘Developer and Other Contributions'

appear as negative numbers. All entries are

discounted present values,

in 2010 prices and values


25


C. Accident Benefits

Table 14: Accidents

Benefits (£’000) Accidents

Without Scheme 252,240 5381

With Scheme 251,609 5380

Difference 631 1

Monetary values are in 2010 prices


26


D. Analysis of Monetised Costs and

Benefits

Noise 0 (12)

Local Air Quality 0 (13)

Greenhouse Gases 357 (14)

Journey Quality 0 (15)

Physical Activity 0 (16)

Accidents 630 (17)

Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users

(Commuting)

1,570 (1a)

Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users

(Other)

4,608 (1b)

Economic Efficiency: Business Users

and Providers

1,464 (5)

Wider Public Finances (Indirect

Taxation Revenues)

-1,043 - (11) - sign changed from PA table, as PA

table represents costs, not benefits

Present Value of Benefits (see notes)

(PVB)

7,586 (PVB) = (12) + (13) + (14) + (15) + (16) + (17)

+ (1a) + (1b) + (5) - (11)

Broad Transport Budget 14,093 (10)

Present Value of Costs (see notes)

(PVC)

14,093 (PVC) = (10)

OVERALL IMPACTS

Net Present Value (NPV) -6,507 NPV=PVB-PVC

Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) 0.54 BCR=PVB/PVC

Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits

Note : This table includes costs and benefits which are regularly or occasionally presented in monetised form in transport appraisals,

together with some where monetisation is in prospect. There may also be other significant costs and benefits, some of which cannot be

presented in monetised form. Where this is the case, the analysis presented above does NOT provide a good measure of value for money

and should not be used as the sole basis for decisions.


27


E. Journey Time Reliability

Table 15: Journey Time Reliability

Item Benefit

2020 JTV Benefits (£ in 2010 prices): 1,576

2030 JTV Benefits (£ in 2010 prices): 22,422

Total JTV Benefits (£ in 2010 prices): 1,044,857


28


F. Appraisal Summary Table

Appraisal Summary Table 18 May 2017

Name

Organisation

Role

Summary of key impacts

Monetary Distributional

£(NPV) 7-pt scale/

vulnerable grp

Reliability impact on Business

users

Journey time reliabilty has been assessed in accordance with TAG and it was found that

there would be benefits to commuting and other purpose users of approximately £0.47m over

the 60 year appraisal period.N/A

Regeneration Regeneration has not been assessed N/A

Wider Impacts Wider impacts have been estimated based on the transport benefits. GVA and jobs benefits

are discussed in a separate report£6.7m

Noise Noise has not been assessed N/A N/A

Air Quality Air quality has not been assessed.

N/A

N/A

Landscape Landscape has not been assessed. N/A

Townscape Townscape has not been assessed. N/A

Historic Environment Historic environment has not been assessed. N/A

Biodiversity Biodiversity has not been assessed. N/A

Water Environment Water environment has not been assessed. N/A

Date produced: Contact:

Quantitative Qualitative

Name of scheme: Access to Halsnead Garden Village

Description of scheme: The scheme aims to improve access to the site through new site access arrangements and off-site mitigation

N/A

Net journey time changes (£)

0 to 2min 2 to 5min > 5min

£1.37m £0.1m £0m

N/A £1.4m

Impacts Assessment

Ec

on

om

y Business users & transport

providers

The development site is located at the heart of the Liverpool City Region (LCR), and at circa

175 hectares in size it represents the most significant opportunity for a new high quality

mixed-use settlement based around Garden Village principles. Positioned within the central

investment and growth corridor, which runs along the M62 from Manchester to Liverpool City

Centre and with a location on the M57 ‘Tarbock Island’ intersection, the development has the

potential to provide exceptional transport links and create an impressive gateway entrance to

the LCR from the east. As such, there are business benefits of £1.4m when the transport

scheme is assessed in isolation.

N/A N/A

N/A

Value of journey time changes(£)

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

Greenhouse gases The total value of change in air quality is £NPV 357 indicating a net benefit for Greenhouse

Gases.Change in non-traded carbon over 60y (CO2e)

N/A

N/A N/A

£0.4mChange in traded carbon over 60y (CO2e)

N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A

En

vir

on

men

tal


29


Reliability impact on

Commuting and Other users

Journey time reliabilty has been assessed in accordance with TAG and it was found that

there would be benefits to commuting and other purpose users of approximately £0.57m over

the 60 year appraisal period.N/A

Physical activity Physical activity has not been assessed. N/A

Journey quality Journey quality has not been assessed. N/A

Accidents Accidents provide a benefit of £0.6m N/A N/A

Security Security has not been assessed N/A N/A

Access to services Access to services has not been assessed. N/A N/A

Affordability Affordability has not been assessed. N/A N/A

Severance Severance has not been assessed. N/A N/A

Option and non-use values Option values have not been assessed.N/A

Cost to Broad Transport

Budget

The appraisal includes costs with risk and Optimism Bias of 15% applied. The costs are

discounted to 2010 and are in 2010 prices for a 60 years appraisal period. £14.1m

Indirect Tax Revenues There is an decrease in indirect tax revenues. £1.0m

So

cia

l

Commuting and Other users The proposed scheme is forecast to reduce journey times for commuting and other purpose

users, resulting in a net user benefit of £6.2m.

N/A

N/A N/A

N/A

N/A N/A

N/A

N/A N/A

N/A

£6.2m N/ANet journey time changes (£)

0 to 2min 2 to 5min > 5min

£4.65m £0.66m £0.88m

Value of journey time changes(£)

N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

Pu

blic

Acco

un

ts

N/A N/A

N/A N/A


30


G. Main Economic Appraisal – TUBA Output

Transport User Benefit Appraisal TUBA 1.9.7

Program run on 2017 at 18:20

Note: All monetary values are in 2010 market prices. All monetary values discounted to 2010 unless otherwise stated.

INPUT SUMMARY

Run name Whiston

DM scheme Do Minimum

DS scheme DO Something

Economic parameter file P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\TUBA_ScenA_M07DM_N100DM_ScenD_M07DM_N120DS_TUBAVersion9\economics_1_9_7.txt

Scheme parameter file P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\TUBA_ScenA_M07DM_N100DM_ScenD_M07DM_N120DS_TUBAVersion9\TUBA_ScenA_M07DM_N100DM_ScenD_M07DM_N120DS_TUBAVersion9.txt

First year of scheme costs 2017

First Appraisal Year 2020

Last Appraisal Year 2079

Modelled years 2020 2030

Time period Hours

AM peak 980

PM peak 946

Inter-peak 0

Off-peak 0

Weekend 0

Total 1926

ERRORS AND WARNINGS

Warning: User Classes loop changed from 12 to 5

Warning: Table VALUE_OF_TIME_GROWTH: data defined from horizon year 2079 to year 2080 is ignored















31









Warning: Table FUEL_COST_CHANGES: data defined from horizon year 2079 to year 2080 is ignored






































32







57205 warnings found

Ratio of DM to DS travel time higher than limit for the following:

Origin Destination Time_slice Veh_type Purpose Person_type Year DM_time DS_time Ratio DM_trips DS_trips

459 483 1 Car Commuting All 2030 0.052 0.022 2.426 0.396 0.396

459 483 1 LGV Freight Business All 2030 0.052 0.022 2.426 0.020 0.020

459 483 1 Car Business All 2030 0.052 0.022 2.426 0.014 0.014

459 483 1 Car Other All 2030 0.052 0.022 2.426 2.726 2.726

459 483 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 0.052 0.022 2.426 0.000 0.000

482 483 2 Car Other All 2030 0.095 0.039 2.410 0.000 0.000

482 483 3 Car Business All 2030 0.095 0.039 2.410 0.002 0.002


482 483 4 Car Other All 2030 0.095 0.039 2.410 0.000 0.000

482 483 3 Car Other All 2030 0.095 0.039 2.410 0.000 0.000

482 483 4 Car Business All 2030 0.095 0.039 2.410 0.002 0.002

482 483 5 Car Other All 2030 0.095 0.039 2.410 0.000 0.000

482 483 5 Car Business All 2030 0.095 0.039 2.410 0.002 0.002

482 483 2 Car Business All 2030 0.095 0.039 2.410 0.002 0.002





482 483 5 Car Business All 2020 0.094 0.039 2.381 0.002 0.002


482 483 5 Car Other All 2020 0.094 0.039 2.381 0.000 0.000

482 483 2 Car Other All 2020 0.094 0.039 2.381 0.000 0.000



482 483 3 Car Other All 2020 0.094 0.039 2.381 0.000 0.000

482 483 4 Car Business All 2020 0.094 0.039 2.381 0.002 0.002

482 483 2 Car Business All 2020 0.094 0.039 2.381 0.002 0.002

482 483 4 Car Other All 2020 0.094 0.039 2.381 0.000 0.000

482 483 3 Car Business All 2020 0.094 0.039 2.381 0.002 0.002

482 483 1 Car Other All 2030 0.087 0.039 2.223 0.000 0.000


482 483 1 Car Business All 2030 0.087 0.039 2.223 0.000 0.000


482 483 1 Car Business All 2020 0.085 0.039 2.164 0.000 0.000

482 483 1 Car Other All 2020 0.085 0.039 2.164 0.000 0.000



33


459 483 3 Car Business All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 0.008 0.008

459 483 3 Car Other All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 2.525 2.525


459 483 4 Car Business All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 0.008 0.008



459 483 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 0.000 0.000

459 483 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 0.000 0.000

459 483 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 0.000 0.000

459 483 4 Car Other All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 2.525 2.525

459 483 5 Car Business All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 0.008 0.008

459 483 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 0.000 0.000




459 483 2 Car Business All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 0.008 0.008


459 483 2 Car Other All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 2.525 2.525

459 483 5 Car Other All 2030 0.045 0.021 2.108 2.525 2.525


459 483 1 Car Business All 2020 0.045 0.022 2.089 0.013 0.013

459 483 1 Car Other All 2020 0.045 0.022 2.089 2.488 2.488

459 483 1 OGV1 Business All 2020 0.045 0.022 2.089 0.000 0.000


459 483 2 OGV1 Business All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 0.000 0.000


459 483 4 OGV1 Business All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 0.000 0.000

459 483 3 OGV1 Business All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 0.000 0.000


459 483 4 Car Other All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 2.299 2.299


459 483 2 Car Other All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 2.299 2.299

459 483 3 Car Other All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 2.299 2.299



459 483 3 Car Business All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 0.007 0.007

459 483 5 Car Business All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 0.007 0.007

459 483 2 Car Business All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 0.007 0.007

459 483 4 Car Business All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 0.007 0.007



459 483 5 Car Other All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 2.299 2.299


459 483 5 OGV1 Business All 2020 0.044 0.021 2.076 0.000 0.000


34


483 486 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 0.084 0.043 1.936 0.000 0.000


483 486 1 Car Business All 2030 0.084 0.043 1.936 0.001 0.001

483 486 1 Car Other All 2030 0.084 0.043 1.936 0.025 0.025


486 483 1 Car Business All 2030 0.085 0.044 1.902 0.001 0.001

486 483 1 Car Other All 2030 0.085 0.044 1.902 0.014 0.014

486 483 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 0.085 0.044 1.902 0.000 0.000


483 486 1 Car Business All 2020 0.080 0.043 1.855 0.001 0.001

483 486 1 OGV1 Business All 2020 0.080 0.043 1.855 0.000 0.000


483 486 1 Car Other All 2020 0.080 0.043 1.855 0.023 0.023


483 482 4 Car Other All 2030 0.074 0.040 1.845 0.001 0.001

483 482 5 Car Business All 2030 0.074 0.040 1.845 0.000 0.000

483 482 3 Car Business All 2030 0.074 0.040 1.845 0.000 0.000

483 482 4 Car Business All 2030 0.074 0.040 1.845 0.000 0.000

483 482 3 Car Other All 2030 0.074 0.040 1.845 0.001 0.001

483 482 2 Car Business All 2030 0.074 0.040 1.845 0.000 0.000

261 warnings of this type; none serious; 100 displayed.

Ratio of DM to DS travel distance higher than limit for the following:

Origin Destination Time_slice Veh_type Purpose Person_type Year DM_dist DS_dist Ratio DM_trips DS_trips


459 483 5 Car Other All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.525 2.525

459 483 3 Car Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.007 0.007


483 459 2 Car Other All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 1.263 1.263

483 459 4 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

459 483 1 Car Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.014 0.014

483 459 2 Car Other All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 1.336 1.336

459 483 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000


459 483 3 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

483 459 3 Car Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.011 0.011


483 459 1 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

483 459 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

459 483 3 Car Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.008 0.008

459 483 4 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

459 483 1 Car Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.013 0.013

483 459 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000


483 459 2 Car Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.012 0.012


35


483 459 5 Car Other All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 1.336 1.336


459 483 5 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

459 483 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

459 483 2 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000


459 483 4 Car Other All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.299 2.299


483 459 4 Car Other All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 1.336 1.336

483 459 3 Car Other All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 1.336 1.336

459 483 2 Car Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.008 0.008



483 459 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000


483 459 3 Car Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.012 0.012

459 483 4 Car Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.007 0.007




459 483 2 Car Other All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.525 2.525

459 483 5 Car Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.008 0.008


459 483 2 Car Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.007 0.007

459 483 3 Car Other All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.299 2.299

483 459 1 Car Other All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.110 2.110

483 459 4 Car Other All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 1.263 1.263

483 459 5 Car Other All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 1.263 1.263


483 459 3 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

483 459 4 Car Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.011 0.011


459 483 4 Car Other All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.525 2.525


459 483 1 Car Other All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.488 2.488

459 483 4 Car Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.008 0.008


459 483 2 Car Other All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.299 2.299


483 459 5 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000


459 483 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

483 459 4 Car Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.012 0.012



36




459 483 5 Car Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.007 0.007

459 483 1 Car Other All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.726 2.726

483 459 1 Car Other All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.260 2.260

459 483 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

483 459 3 Car Other All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 1.263 1.263

459 483 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

483 459 5 Car Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.011 0.011

483 459 1 Car Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.005 0.005


483 459 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

483 459 2 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000


459 483 5 Car Other All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.299 2.299

483 459 1 Car Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.005 0.005

483 459 5 Car Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.012 0.012


483 459 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000

459 483 1 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.000 0.000



483 459 2 Car Business All 2020 1.887 0.929 2.031 0.011 0.011

459 483 3 Car Other All 2030 1.887 0.929 2.031 2.525 2.525











465 483 5 Car Business All 2030 7.760 4.294 1.807 0.210 0.210

486 warnings of this type; 486 serious; 100 displayed.

DM speeds less than limit for the following:

Origin Destination Time_slice Veh_type Purpose Person_type Year DM_dist DM_time Speed DM_trips

2 7 1 Car Commuting All 2030 1.034 1.022 1.012 0.533

2 7 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.034 1.022 1.012 0.246

2 7 1 Car Other All 2030 1.034 1.022 1.012 2.668

2 7 1 LGV Freight Business All 2030 1.034 1.022 1.012 9.030

2 7 1 Car Business All 2030 1.034 1.022 1.012 0.183

7 5 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.207 1.141 1.058 0.016


37



7 5 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.207 1.141 1.058 0.016



7 5 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.207 1.141 1.058 0.016


7 5 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.207 1.141 1.058 0.016




7 5 2 Car Other All 2030 1.272 1.141 1.115 14.971


7 5 5 Car Other All 2030 1.272 1.141 1.115 14.971

7 5 3 Car Other All 2030 1.272 1.141 1.115 14.971

7 5 4 Car Other All 2030 1.272 1.141 1.115 14.971

7 5 4 Car Business All 2030 1.369 1.142 1.199 0.003

7 5 2 Car Business All 2030 1.369 1.142 1.199 0.003

7 5 5 Car Business All 2030 1.369 1.142 1.199 0.003

7 5 3 Car Business All 2030 1.369 1.142 1.199 0.003



2 5 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.243 1.017 1.222 0.005


2 5 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.243 1.017 1.222 0.005

2 5 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.243 1.017 1.222 0.005


2 5 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.243 1.017 1.222 0.005

2 3 1 Car Other All 2030 1.241 1.000 1.241 0.677

2 3 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.241 1.000 1.241 0.113

2 3 1 Car Business All 2030 1.241 1.000 1.241 0.095




2 5 4 Car Other All 2030 1.309 1.018 1.285 11.067

2 5 5 Car Other All 2030 1.309 1.018 1.285 11.067




2 5 3 Car Other All 2030 1.309 1.018 1.285 11.067

2 5 2 Car Other All 2030 1.309 1.018 1.285 11.067

2 3 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.162

2 3 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.162

2 3 4 Car Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.315



38


2 3 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.162



2 3 4 Car Other All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 2.601


2 3 2 Car Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.315


2 3 5 Car Other All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 2.601



2 3 2 Car Other All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 2.601

2 3 3 Car Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.315

2 3 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.162

2 3 5 Car Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.315


2 3 3 Car Other All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 2.601

2 7 1 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.034 0.770 1.343 0.231


2 7 1 Car Business All 2020 1.034 0.770 1.343 0.170

2 7 1 Car Other All 2020 1.034 0.770 1.343 2.739


7 3 3 Car Other All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 3.015


7 3 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.460

7 3 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.460

7 3 3 Car Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.493


7 3 4 Car Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.493


7 3 4 Car Other All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 3.015




7 3 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.460

7 3 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.460

7 3 2 Car Other All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 3.015

7 3 5 Car Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.493

7 3 5 Car Other All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 3.015


7 3 2 Car Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.493


2 5 3 Car Business All 2030 1.405 1.019 1.379 0.002

2 5 5 Car Business All 2030 1.405 1.019 1.379 0.002

2 5 2 Car Business All 2030 1.405 1.019 1.379 0.002


39


2 5 4 Car Business All 2030 1.405 1.019 1.379 0.002


7 3 1 Car Business All 2030 1.445 1.013 1.426 0.134

7 3 1 Car Other All 2030 1.445 1.013 1.426 0.741


7 3 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.445 1.013 1.426 0.219


DS speeds less than limit for the following:

Origin Destination Time_slice Veh_type Purpose Person_type Year DS_dist DS_time Speed DS_trips


2 7 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.034 1.022 1.012 0.246

2 7 1 Car Other All 2030 1.034 1.022 1.012 2.668


2 7 1 Car Business All 2030 1.034 1.022 1.012 0.183

7 5 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.207 1.141 1.058 0.016


7 5 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.207 1.141 1.058 0.016



7 5 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.207 1.141 1.058 0.016


7 5 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.207 1.141 1.058 0.016




7 5 2 Car Other All 2030 1.272 1.141 1.115 14.971


7 5 5 Car Other All 2030 1.272 1.141 1.115 14.971

7 5 3 Car Other All 2030 1.272 1.141 1.115 14.971

7 5 4 Car Other All 2030 1.272 1.141 1.115 14.971

7 5 4 Car Business All 2030 1.369 1.142 1.199 0.003

7 5 2 Car Business All 2030 1.369 1.142 1.199 0.003

7 5 5 Car Business All 2030 1.369 1.142 1.199 0.003

7 5 3 Car Business All 2030 1.369 1.142 1.199 0.003



2 5 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.243 1.017 1.222 0.005


2 5 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.243 1.017 1.222 0.005

2 5 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.243 1.017 1.222 0.005


2 5 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.243 1.017 1.222 0.005

2 3 1 Car Other All 2030 1.241 1.000 1.241 0.677

2 3 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.241 1.000 1.241 0.113


40


2 3 1 Car Business All 2030 1.241 1.000 1.241 0.095




2 5 4 Car Other All 2030 1.309 1.018 1.285 11.067

2 5 5 Car Other All 2030 1.309 1.018 1.285 11.067




2 5 3 Car Other All 2030 1.309 1.018 1.285 11.067

2 5 2 Car Other All 2030 1.309 1.018 1.285 11.067

2 3 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.162

2 3 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.162

2 3 4 Car Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.315


2 3 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.162



2 3 4 Car Other All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 2.601


2 3 2 Car Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.315


2 3 5 Car Other All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 2.601



2 3 2 Car Other All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 2.601

2 3 3 Car Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.315

2 3 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.162

2 3 5 Car Business All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 0.315


2 3 3 Car Other All 2030 1.266 0.954 1.326 2.601

2 7 1 OGV1 Business All 2020 1.034 0.770 1.343 0.231


2 7 1 Car Business All 2020 1.034 0.770 1.343 0.170

2 7 1 Car Other All 2020 1.034 0.770 1.343 2.739


7 3 3 Car Other All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 3.015


7 3 2 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.460

7 3 4 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.460

7 3 3 Car Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.493


7 3 4 Car Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.493



41


7 3 4 Car Other All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 3.015




7 3 3 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.460

7 3 5 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.460

7 3 2 Car Other All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 3.015

7 3 5 Car Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.493

7 3 5 Car Other All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 3.015


7 3 2 Car Business All 2030 1.465 1.090 1.344 0.493


2 5 3 Car Business All 2030 1.405 1.019 1.379 0.002

2 5 5 Car Business All 2030 1.405 1.019 1.379 0.002

2 5 2 Car Business All 2030 1.405 1.019 1.379 0.002

2 5 4 Car Business All 2030 1.405 1.019 1.379 0.002


7 3 1 Car Business All 2030 1.445 1.013 1.426 0.134

7 3 1 Car Other All 2030 1.445 1.013 1.426 0.741


7 3 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 1.445 1.013 1.426 0.219


DM time greater than limit for the following:

Origin Destination Time_slice Veh_type Purpose Person_type Year Time File name

307 450 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 11.582 ‰P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\Matrices\Whiston_30ScenarioA_M07DM_N

307 450 1 LGV Freight Business All 2030 11.434 ‰P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\Matrices\Whiston_30ScenarioA_M07DM_N

307 450 1 Car Other All 2030 11.433 ‰P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\Matrices\Whiston_30ScenarioA_M07DM_N

307 450 1 Car Business All 2030 11.433 ‰P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\Matrices\Whiston_30ScenarioA_M07DM_N

307 450 1 Car Commuting All 2030 11.432 ‰P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\Matrices\Whiston_30ScenarioA_M07DM_N










42















DS time greater than limit for the following:

Origin Destination Time_slice Veh_type Purpose Person_type Year Time File name

307 450 1 OGV1 Business All 2030 11.582 –P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\Matrices\Whiston_30ScenarioD_M07DM_N

307 450 1 LGV Freight Business All 2030 11.434 –P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\Matrices\Whiston_30ScenarioD_M07DM_N

307 450 1 Car Other All 2030 11.433 –P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\Matrices\Whiston_30ScenarioD_M07DM_N

307 450 1 Car Business All 2030 11.433 –P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\Matrices\Whiston_30ScenarioD_M07DM_N

307 450 1 Car Commuting All 2030 11.432 –P:\Liverpool\ITD\Projects\382112 Halsnead Garden Suburb OBC\Modelling\05 TUBA\Matrices\Whiston_30ScenarioD_M07DM_N













43












TUBA ECONOMICS FILE DIFFERENCES

STANDARD ECONOMICS FILE USED

DM SCHEME COSTS

Do minimum scheme costs. Undiscounted £000s

Mode Year Prep. Super. Const. Land Maint. Oper. Grant/sub. Dev con.

Road 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Road 2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Road 2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Road 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DS SCHEME COSTS

Do something scheme costs. Undiscounted £000s

Mode Year Prep. Super. Const. Land Maint. Oper. Grant/sub. Dev con.

Road 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Road 2018 0 0 9379 0 0 0 0 0

Road 2019 0 0 5968 0 0 0 0 0

Road 2020 0 0 5968 0 0 0 0 0

PRESENT VALUE COSTS

Scheme investment and operating costs (i.e. excluding grant/subsidy, developer contributions and delays) and differences. £000s.

Mode Year DM scheme costs DS scheme costs Difference

Road 2017 0 0 0

Road 2018 0 7123 7123

Road 2019 0 4379 4379

Road 2020 0 4231 4231

Road Total 0 15733 15733

TRIP MATRIX TOTALS

Annualised total trip numbers, 1000s of trips

Submode Year Time Period DO MIN DO SOM

Car 2020 AM peak 766945 766945

Car 2020 PM peak 744464 744464


44


Car 2020 Inter-peak 0 0

Car 2020 Off-peak 0 0

Car 2020 Weekend 0 0

Car 2020 All 1511409 1511409

Car 2030 AM peak 823389 823389

Car 2030 PM peak 800624 800624

Car 2030 Inter-peak 0 0

Car 2030 Off-peak 0 0

Car 2030 Weekend 0 0

Car 2030 All 1624013 1624013

LGV Freight 2020 AM peak 67945 67945

LGV Freight 2020 PM peak 59876 59876

LGV Freight 2020 Inter-peak 0 0

LGV Freight 2020 Off-peak 0 0

LGV Freight 2020 Weekend 0 0

LGV Freight 2020 All 127821 127821

LGV Freight 2030 AM peak 84063 84063

LGV Freight 2030 PM peak 74076 74076

LGV Freight 2030 Inter-peak 0 0

LGV Freight 2030 Off-peak 0 0

LGV Freight 2030 Weekend 0 0

LGV Freight 2030 All 158139 158139

OGV1 2020 AM peak 19716 19716

OGV1 2020 PM peak 13460 13460

OGV1 2020 Inter-peak 0 0

OGV1 2020 Off-peak 0 0

OGV1 2020 Weekend 0 0

OGV1 2020 All 33176 33176

OGV1 2030 AM peak 21088 21088

OGV1 2030 PM peak 14408 14408

OGV1 2030 Inter-peak 0 0

OGV1 2030 Off-peak 0 0

OGV1 2030 Weekend 0 0

OGV1 2030 All 35496 35496

All 2020 AM peak 854606 854606

All 2020 PM peak 817800 817800

All 2020 Inter-peak 0 0

All 2020 Off-peak 0 0

All 2020 Weekend 0 0

All 2020 All 1672406 1672406

All 2030 AM peak 928540 928540

All 2030 PM peak 889108 889108

All 2030 Inter-peak 0 0

All 2030 Off-peak 0 0


45


All 2030 Weekend 0 0

All 2030 All 1817648 1817648

DM AND DS USER COSTS

Total value of user costs, DM and DS. £000s.

Mode Year DM time DM charge DM fuel DM nonfuel DS time DS charge DS fuel DS nonfuel

Road 2020 7168105 37975 1123935 889405 7168118 38002 1123906 889367

Road 2030 7817844 39180 955957 725041 7817702 39221 955915 724995

FUEL CONSUMPTION

Total fuel consumption, DM and DS. kilolitres.

Submode Year DM Petrol DM Diesel DM Electric DS Petrol DS Diesel DS Electric

Car 2020 429194 426272 16353 429176 426254 16351

Car 2030 407499 381113 97386 407474 381088 97377

LGV Freight 2020 4932 171160 0 4932 171158 0

LGV Freight 2030 2143 207849 0 2143 207842 0

OGV1 2020 0 350990 0 0 350993 0

OGV1 2030 0 392436 0 0 392433 0

All 2020 434126 948422 16353 434108 948405 16351

All 2030 409642 981397 97386 409617 981362 97377

Car Total 23969183 22627814 5352948 23967754 22626395 5352411

LGV Freight Total 137562 12151688 0 137558 12151290 0

OGV1 Total 0 23318179 0 0 23318037 0

All Total 24106744 58097682 5352948 24105312 58095722 5352411

CO2 EMISSIONS

(i) Total CO2 emissions (Untraded), DM and DS and increase. tonnes and £000s.

followed by

(ii) Total CO2 emissions (Traded), DM and DS and increase. tonnes and £000s.

Emissions (tonnes) Cost (£000s,low) Cost (£000s,medium) Cost (£000s,high)

Submode Year DM DS Increase DM DS Increase DM DS Increase DM DS Increase Submode Year DM DS Increase DM DS Increase DM DS Increase DM DS Increase

Car 2020 1920474 1920394 -81 42029 42027 -2 84058 84054 -4 126086 126081 -5

Car 2030 1766248 1766137 -112 31969 31967 -2 63939 63935 -4 95908 95902 -6

LGV Freight 2020 424468 424464 -4 9289 9289 -0 18579 18578 -0 27868 27868 -0

LGV Freight 2030 507490 507473 -18 9186 9185 -0 18371 18371 -1 27557 27556 -1

OGV1 2020 849492 849500 7 18591 18591 0 37182 37182 0 55772 55773 0

OGV1 2030 949803 949796 -7 17192 17191 -0 34383 34383 -0 51575 51575 -0

All 2020 3194435 3194357 -77 69909 69907 -2 139818 139814 -3 209727 209722 -5


46


All 2021 3189296 3189212 -84 68560 68559 -2 137121 137117 -4 205681 205676 -5

All 2022 3183456 3183365 -90 67204 67202 -2 134409 134405 -4 201613 201607 -6

All 2023 3176961 3176865 -96 65844 65842 -2 131689 131685 -4 197533 197527 -6

All 2024 3169858 3169756 -102 64483 64481 -2 128966 128962 -4 193449 193443 -6

All 2025 3162189 3162082 -107 63123 63121 -2 126246 126242 -4 189369 189363 -6

All 2026 3175721 3175607 -113 62191 62189 -2 124383 124379 -4 186575 186568 -7

All 2027 3188602 3188482 -119 61246 61244 -2 122492 122488 -5 183738 183732 -7

All 2028 3200852 3200727 -125 60289 60287 -2 120579 120574 -5 180868 180861 -7

All 2029 3212493 3212362 -131 59322 59320 -2 118645 118640 -5 177967 177960 -7

All 2030 3223542 3223406 -136 58347 58344 -2 116693 116689 -5 175040 175033 -7

All 2031 3212805 3212669 -136 61403 61401 -3 122807 122801 -5 184210 184202 -8

All 2032 3202123 3201988 -135 64154 64151 -3 128308 128302 -5 192462 192454 -8

All 2033 3191495 3191361 -134 66617 66614 -3 133233 133228 -6 199850 199841 -8

All 2034 3180922 3180788 -134 68810 68807 -3 137620 137614 -6 206430 206421 -9

All 2035 3170403 3170270 -133 70750 70747 -3 141500 141494 -6 212249 212241 -9

All 2036 3170403 3170270 -133 72692 72689 -3 145384 145378 -6 218076 218066 -9

All 2037 3170403 3170270 -133 74422 74419 -3 148843 148837 -6 223265 223256 -9

All 2038 3170403 3170270 -133 75952 75949 -3 151904 151897 -6 227856 227846 -10

All 2039 3170403 3170270 -133 77293 77290 -3 154587 154580 -6 231880 231870 -10

All 2040 3170403 3170270 -133 78457 78453 -3 156914 156907 -7 235370 235361 -10

All 2041 3170403 3170270 -133 79454 79450 -3 158907 158901 -7 238361 238351 -10

All 2042 3170403 3170270 -133 80293 80290 -3 160587 160580 -7 240880 240870 -10


47


All 2043 3170403 3170270 -133 80985 80982 -3 161971 161964 -7 242956 242946 -10

All 2044 3170403 3170270 -133 81539 81535 -3 163077 163070 -7 244616 244606 -10

All 2045 3170403 3170270 -133 81962 81958 -3 163923 163916 -7 245885 245875 -10

All 2046 3170403 3170270 -133 82263 82260 -3 164527 164520 -7 246790 246780 -10

All 2047 3170403 3170270 -133 82851 82848 -3 165702 165695 -7 248554 248543 -10

All 2048 3170403 3170270 -133 83335 83331 -3 166669 166662 -7 250004 249994 -10

All 2049 3170403 3170270 -133 83720 83716 -4 167440 167433 -7 251159 251149 -11

All 2050 3170403 3170270 -133 84012 84008 -4 168023 168016 -7 252035 252024 -11

All 2051 3170403 3170270 -133 83605 83601 -4 168898 168890 -7 254193 254182 -11

All 2052 3170403 3170270 -133 83008 83005 -3 169404 169397 -7 255802 255791 -11

All 2053 3170403 3170270 -133 82335 82332 -3 169763 169756 -7 257193 257182 -11

All 2054 3170403 3170270 -133 81580 81577 -3 169959 169952 -7 258341 258331 -11

All 2055 3170403 3170270 -133 80674 80671 -3 169840 169833 -7 259011 259000 -11

All 2056 3170403 3170270 -133 79718 79715 -3 169613 169605 -7 259512 259501 -11

All 2057 3170403 3170270 -133 78626 78623 -3 169087 169080 -7 259554 259544 -11

All 2058 3170403 3170270 -133 77440 77436 -3 168347 168340 -7 259260 259249 -11

All 2059 3170403 3170270 -133 76184 76181 -3 167438 167431 -7 258698 258687 -11

All 2060 3170403 3170270 -133 74854 74850 -3 166343 166336 -7 257837 257826 -11

All 2061 3170403 3170270 -133 73162 73159 -3 164411 164404 -7 255664 255653 -11

All 2062 3170403 3170270 -133 71470 71467 -3 162433 162426 -7 253400 253390 -11

All 2063 3170403 3170270 -133 69667 69664 -3 160155 160148 -7 250647 250637 -11

All 2064 3170403 3170270 -133 67829 67826 -3 157743 157736 -7 247664 247654 -10


48


All 2065 3170403 3170270 -133 65906 65903 -3 155073 155067 -7 244247 244237 -10

All 2066 3170403 3170270 -133 64007 64005 -3 152400 152393 -6 240797 240787 -10

All 2067 3170403 3170270 -133 62023 62020 -3 149454 149447 -6 236890 236880 -10

All 2068 3170403 3170270 -133 60035 60032 -3 146427 146421 -6 232824 232814 -10

All 2069 3170403 3170270 -133 58017 58015 -2 143254 143248 -6 228495 228486 -10

All 2070 3170403 3170270 -133 55998 55996 -2 139995 139989 -6 223999 223989 -9

All 2071 3170403 3170270 -133 54036 54034 -2 136800 136794 -6 219569 219560 -9

All 2072 3170403 3170270 -133 52075 52073 -2 133525 133519 -6 214979 214970 -9

All 2073 3170403 3170270 -133 50135 50133 -2 130220 130215 -5 210310 210301 -9

All 2074 3170403 3170270 -133 48172 48170 -2 126767 126762 -5 205369 205360 -9

All 2075 3170403 3170270 -133 46284 46282 -2 123422 123417 -5 200568 200559 -8

All 2076 3170403 3170270 -133 44347 44345 -2 119856 119851 -5 195372 195364 -8

All 2077 3170403 3170270 -133 42489 42487 -2 116407 116402 -5 190332 190325 -8

All 2078 3170403 3170270 -133 40635 40634 -2 112875 112871 -5 185123 185116 -8

All 2079 3170403 3170270 -133 38832 38830 -2 109385 109380 -5 179947 179940 -8

Car Total 104401073 104394680 -6394 2242646 2242508 -137 4812192 4811896 -296 7381825 7381371 -454

LGV Freight Total 29695324 29694353 -971 638545 638524 -21 1372542 1372497 -45 2106566 2106496 -69

OGV1 Total 56436469 56436124 -345 1213436 1213429 -7 2607523 2607507 -16 4001657 4001632 -25

All Total 190532866 190525157 -7709 4094626 4094461 -166 8792257 8791900 -357 13490048 13489500 -548

Car 2020 4611 4610 -0 0 0 -0 20 20 -0 117 117 -0

Car 2030 12578 12576 -1 201 201 -0 455 455 -0 683 683 -0

LGV Freight 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


49


LGV Freight 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

All 2020 4611 4610 -0 0 0 -0 20 20 -0 117 117 -0

All 2021 5908 5908 -0 13 13 -0 51 51 -0 174 174 -0

All 2022 7077 7076 -1 30 30 -0 90 90 -0 235 235 -0

All 2023 8102 8101 -1 49 49 -0 134 134 -0 298 298 -0

All 2024 8967 8966 -1 70 70 -0 180 180 -0 358 358 -0

All 2025 9654 9653 -1 92 92 -0 225 225 -0 414 414 -0

All 2026 11000 10999 -1 121 121 -0 289 289 -0 502 502 -0

All 2027 12004 12003 -1 149 149 -0 349 349 -0 578 578 -0

All 2028 12629 12628 -1 173 173 -0 400 400 -0 636 636 -0

All 2029 12835 12834 -1 191 191 -0 437 437 -0 673 673 -0

All 2030 12578 12576 -1 201 201 -0 455 455 -0 683 683 -0

All 2031 11473 11472 -1 194 194 -0 438 438 -0 658 658 -0

All 2032 10466 10465 -1 185 185 -0 419 419 -0 629 629 -0

All 2033 9547 9546 -1 176 176 -0 398 398 -0 598 598 -0

All 2034 8709 8708 -1 166 166 -0 377 377 -0 565 565 -0

All 2035 7944 7943 -1 157 157 -0 354 354 -0 532 532 -0

All 2036 7241 7240 -1 147 147 -0 332 332 -0 498 498 -0

All 2037 6600 6599 -1 137 137 -0 310 310 -0 465 465 -0

All 2038 6015 6015 -1 127 127 -0 288 288 -0 432 432 -0


50


All 2039 5483 5482 -1 118 118 -0 267 267 -0 401 401 -0

All 2040 4998 4997 -1 109 109 -0 247 247 -0 371 371 -0

All 2041 4444 4444 -0 98 98 -0 223 223 -0 334 334 -0

All 2042 4407 4406 -0 99 99 -0 223 223 -0 335 335 -0

All 2043 3918 3917 -0 88 88 -0 200 200 -0 300 300 -0

All 2044 3463 3463 -0 79 79 -0 178 178 -0 267 267 -0

All 2045 3515 3515 -0 80 80 -0 182 182 -0 273 273 -0

All 2046 3201 3200 -0 73 73 -0 166 166 -0 249 249 -0

All 2047 2963 2963 -0 68 68 -0 155 155 -0 232 232 -0

All 2048 2996 2996 -0 70 70 -0 157 157 -0 236 236 -0

All 2049 2713 2712 -0 63 63 -0 143 143 -0 215 215 -0

All 2050 2688 2688 -0 63 63 -0 142 142 -0 214 214 -0

All 2051 2688 2688 -0 63 63 -0 143 143 -0 215 215 -0

All 2052 2688 2688 -0 62 62 -0 144 144 -0 217 217 -0

All 2053 2688 2688 -0 62 62 -0 144 144 -0 218 218 -0

All 2054 2688 2688 -0 61 61 -0 144 144 -0 219 219 -0

All 2055 2688 2688 -0 60 60 -0 144 144 -0 220 220 -0

All 2056 2688 2688 -0 60 60 -0 144 144 -0 220 220 -0

All 2057 2688 2688 -0 59 59 -0 143 143 -0 220 220 -0

All 2058 2688 2688 -0 58 58 -0 143 143 -0 220 220 -0

All 2059 2688 2688 -0 57 57 -0 142 142 -0 219 219 -0

All 2060 2688 2688 -0 56 56 -0 141 141 -0 219 219 -0


51


All 2061 2688 2688 -0 55 55 -0 139 139 -0 217 217 -0

All 2062 2688 2688 -0 54 54 -0 138 138 -0 215 215 -0

All 2063 2688 2688 -0 52 52 -0 136 136 -0 212 212 -0

All 2064 2688 2688 -0 51 51 -0 134 134 -0 210 210 -0

All 2065 2688 2688 -0 49 49 -0 131 131 -0 207 207 -0

All 2066 2688 2688 -0 48 48 -0 129 129 -0 204 204 -0

All 2067 2688 2688 -0 46 46 -0 127 127 -0 201 201 -0

All 2068 2688 2688 -0 45 45 -0 124 124 -0 197 197 -0

All 2069 2688 2688 -0 43 43 -0 121 121 -0 194 194 -0

All 2070 2688 2688 -0 42 42 -0 119 119 -0 190 190 -0

All 2071 2688 2688 -0 40 40 -0 116 116 -0 186 186 -0

All 2072 2688 2688 -0 39 39 -0 113 113 -0 182 182 -0

All 2073 2688 2688 -0 38 38 -0 110 110 -0 178 178 -0

All 2074 2688 2688 -0 36 36 -0 107 107 -0 174 174 -0

All 2075 2688 2688 -0 35 35 -0 105 105 -0 170 170 -0

All 2076 2688 2688 -0 33 33 -0 102 102 -0 166 166 -0

All 2077 2688 2688 -0 32 32 -0 99 99 -0 161 161 -0

All 2078 2688 2688 -0 30 30 -0 96 96 -0 157 157 -0

All 2079 2688 2688 -0 29 29 -0 93 93 -0 153 153 -0

Car Total 296105 296076 -29 4782 4782 -0 11501 11500 -1 18231 18229 -2

LGV Freight Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


52


All Total 296105 296076 -29 4782 4782 -0 11501 11500 -1 18231 18229 -2

CO2 EMISSIONS BY PERIOD

(i) Total CO2 emissions (Untraded), DM and DS and increase. tonnes and £000s.

followed by

(ii) Total CO2 emissions (Traded), DM and DS and increase. tonnes and £000s.

Emissions (tonnes) Cost (£000s,low) Cost (£000s,medium) Cost (£000s,high)

Submode Year DM DS Increase DM DS Increase DM DS Increase DM DS Increase Submode Year DM DS Increase DM DS Increase DM DS Increase DM DS Increase

AM peak 2020 1675954 1675902 -53 36678 36676 -1 73355 73353 -2 110033 110029 -3

AM peak 2030 1706308 1706213 -94 30885 30883 -2 61769 61766 -3 92654 92648 -5

PM peak 2020 1518480 1518455 -25 33231 33231 -1 66463 66462 -1 99694 99692 -2

PM peak 2030 1517234 1517192 -42 27462 27461 -1 54924 54923 -2 82387 82384 -2

Inter-peak 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Inter-peak 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Off-peak 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Off-peak 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weekend 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weekend 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

AM peak Total 100868153 100862816 -5337 2167784 2167669 -115 4655112 4654865 -247 7142524 7142145 -380

PM peak Total 89664713 89662341 -2372 1926842 1926791 -51 4137146 4137036 -110 6347524 6347355 -169

Inter-peak Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Off-peak Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weekend Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

AM peak 2020 2261 2261 -0 0 0 -0 10 10 -0 57 57 -0

AM peak 2030 6162 6161 -1 99 98 -0 223 223 -0 334 334 -0

PM peak 2020 2350 2350 -0 0 0 -0 10 10 -0 60 60 -0


53


PM peak 2030 6416 6415 -0 103 103 -0 232 232 -0 348 348 -0

Inter-peak 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Inter-peak 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Off-peak 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Off-peak 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weekend 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weekend 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

AM peak Total 145081 145062 -19 2343 2343 -0 5635 5634 -1 8932 8931 -1

PM peak Total 151024 151014 -10 2439 2439 -0 5866 5866 -0 9299 9298 -1

Inter-peak Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Off-peak Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weekend Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MODE

User benefits and changes in revenues by mode, all years. £000s.

Category Year Time benefits LA tolls benefits VOC fuel benefits Non fuel VOC benefits Change in operator revenues LA tolls Change in gov't indirect tax revenues

Road 2020 -12 -27 28 39 32 -21

Road 2021 6 -29 30 40 35 -23

Road 2022 23 -31 33 41 37 -24

Road 2023 39 -33 34 42 39 -25

Road 2024 56 -34 36 43 41 -25

Road 2025 71 -36 38 44 43 -26

Road 2026 86 -37 39 44 44 -27

Road 2027 101 -38 40 45 46 -28

Road 2028 115 -39 41 45 47 -28

Road 2029 128 -40 41 46 48 -29

Road 2030 141 -41 42 46 49 -29

Road 2031 139 -40 40 44 47 -28

Road 2032 137 -38 39 43 46 -27

Road 2033 135 -37 37 42 44 -26

Road 2034 133 -36 36 40 43 -25

Road 2035 131 -34 35 39 41 -25

Road 2036 129 -33 34 37 40 -24


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Road 2037 127 -32 33 36 39 -23

Road 2038 125 -31 32 35 37 -23

Road 2039 123 -30 31 34 36 -22

Road 2040 122 -29 30 33 35 -21

Road 2041 120 -28 29 32 34 -21

Road 2042 118 -27 28 30 32 -20

Road 2043 117 -26 27 29 31 -19

Road 2044 115 -25 26 28 30 -19

Road 2045 114 -24 26 27 29 -18

Road 2046 112 -24 25 27 28 -18

Road 2047 111 -23 24 26 27 -17

Road 2048 110 -22 24 25 27 -17

Road 2049 110 -22 23 24 26 -17

Road 2050 109 -21 22 24 25 -16

Road 2051 108 -20 22 23 24 -16

Road 2052 107 -20 21 22 24 -15

Road 2053 106 -19 21 22 23 -15

Road 2054 105 -19 20 21 22 -15

Road 2055 104 -18 20 20 22 -14

Road 2056 103 -18 19 20 21 -14

Road 2057 102 -17 19 19 20 -14

Road 2058 101 -17 18 19 20 -13

Road 2059 100 -16 18 18 19 -13

Road 2060 100 -16 17 18 19 -13

Road 2061 99 -15 17 17 18 -12

Road 2062 98 -15 16 17 18 -12

Road 2063 98 -14 16 16 17 -12

Road 2064 97 -14 16 16 17 -11

Road 2065 96 -13 15 15 16 -11

Road 2066 95 -13 15 15 16 -11

Road 2067 95 -13 14 14 15 -11

Road 2068 94 -12 14 14 15 -10

Road 2069 93 -12 14 13 14 -10

Road 2070 92 -12 13 13 14 -10

Road 2071 92 -11 13 13 14 -10

Road 2072 91 -11 13 12 13 -9

Road 2073 90 -11 12 12 13 -9

Road 2074 89 -10 12 12 12 -9

Road 2075 89 -10 12 11 12 -9

Road 2076 88 -10 11 11 12 -9

Road 2077 87 -9 11 11 11 -8

Road 2078 87 -9 11 10 11 -8

Road 2079 86 -9 11 10 11 -8

Road Total 5979 -1369 1450 1583 1640 -1043


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SUBMODE

User benefits and changes in revenues by submode/vehicle type, modelled years and total. £000s.


Car 2020 1 -27 29 36 33 -22

Car 2030 134 -44 35 35 52 -26

LGV Freight 2020 -14 0 1 4 -0 -1

LGV Freight 2030 0 2 5 10 -2 -3

OGV1 2020 0 0 -2 -1 -0 1

OGV1 2030 7 1 2 1 -1 -1

All 2020 -12 -27 28 39 32 -21

All 2030 141 -41 42 46 49 -29

Car Total 5733 -1468 1234 1245 1738 -929

LGV Freight Total -55 70 165 314 -70 -88

OGV1 Total 301 29 51 24 -29 -27

All Total 5979 -1369 1450 1583 1640 -1043

PERSON TYPES

User benefits and changes in revenues by person type, modelled years and total. £000s.


All 2020 -12 -27 28 39 32 -21

All 2030 141 -41 42 46 49 -29

All Total 5979 -1369 1450 1583 1640 -1043

PURPOSE

User benefits and changes in revenues by trip purpose, modelled years and total. £000s.


Business 2020 -10 1 -1 3 -1 0

Business 2030 18 2 8 13 -2 -4

Commuting 2020 -23 19 5 8 -23 1

Commuting 2030 24 0 8 8 -0 -4

Other 2020 21 -47 24 27 56 -22

Other 2030 98 -43 26 25 51 -21

Business Total 741 54 259 410 -54 -137

Commuting Total 930 107 265 269 -127 -121

Other Total 4307 -1530 927 904 1820 -785

PERIOD

User benefits and changes in revenues by time period, modelled years and total. £000s.


AM peak 2020 -12 -27 19 26 32 -16

AM peak 2030 130 -32 29 30 40 -22


56


PM peak 2020 -0 0 9 13 -0 -5

PM peak 2030 11 -8 13 16 10 -7

Inter-peak 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0

Inter-peak 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0

Off-peak 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0

Off-peak 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weekend 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weekend 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0

AM peak Total 5505 -1116 1003 1030 1354 -774

PM peak Total 474 -253 447 553 285 -270

Inter-peak Total 0 0 0 0 0 0

Off-peak Total 0 0 0 0 0 0

Weekend Total 0 0 0 0 0 0

NON MONETISED TIME BENEFITS BY TIME SAVING

Time benefits (thousands of person hrs) by size of time saving

Vehicle Type/Submode Purpose Year < -5 mins -5 to -2 mins -2 to 0 mins 0 to 2 mins 2 to 5 mins > 5 mins

Car Business 2020 0 -0 -4 4 0 0

Car Business 2030 0 -0 -5 5 0 0

Car Business Total 0 -10 -272 312 4 0

Car Commuting 2020 -0 -0 -24 19 0 0

Car Commuting 2030 0 -1 -25 31 0 0

Car Commuting Total -0 -66 -1488 1786 28 0

Car Other 2020 -0 -0 -38 34 9 0

Car Other 2030 0 -1 -38 50 3 9

Car Other Total -0 -33 -2263 2890 230 483

LGV Freight Business 2020 -0 -1 -8 7 0 0


LGV Freight Business Total -0 -7 -645 625 22 0

LGV Freight Commuting 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0


LGV Freight Commuting Total 0 0 0 0 0 0

LGV Freight Other 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0


LGV Freight Other Total 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Business 2020 -0 -0 -1 1 0 0

OGV1 Business 2030 -0 -0 -1 2 0 0

OGV1 Business Total -0 -1 -73 109 3 0

OGV1 Commuting 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Commuting 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Commuting Total 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Other 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Other 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Other Total 0 0 0 0 0 0


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MONETISED TIME BENEFITS BY TIME SAVING

Time benefits (£000s) by size of time saving


Car Business 2020 0 -1 -83 86 1 0

Car Business 2030 0 -3 -83 96 1 0


Car Commuting 2020 -0 -1 -130 106 1 0

Car Commuting 2030 0 -6 -117 145 2 0

Car Commuting Total -0 -247 -5726 6797 106 0

Car Other 2020 -0 -1 -185 164 42 0

Car Other 2030 0 -2 -158 207 14 37

Car Other Total -0 -108 -7683 9703 817 1579



LGV Freight Business Total -0 -58 -4416 4270 149 0







OGV1 Business 2020 -0 -0 -14 14 1 0

OGV1 Business 2030 -0 -0 -12 19 0 0

OGV1 Business Total -0 -8 -594 879 23 1

OGV1 Commuting 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Commuting 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0


OGV1 Other 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Other 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0


TOTAL BENEFITS BY TIME SAVING

Total benefits (£000s) by size of time saving


Car Business 2020 0 -1 -85 89 1 0

Car Business 2030 0 -3 -84 99 2 0


Car Commuting 2020 0 -0 -106 114 2 0

Car Commuting 2030 0 1 -109 145 3 0

Car Commuting Total 0 -33 -5366 6843 127 0

Car Other 2020 -0 -0 -184 185 23 0

Car Other 2030 0 -1 -154 238 11 13

Car Other Total -0 -64 -7587 10755 628 877

LGV Freight Business 2020 0 -4 -76 68 4 0

LGV Freight Business 2030 0 -0 -84 99 3 -0


58


LGV Freight Business Total 0 -29 -4150 4516 157 0







OGV1 Business 2020 0 -0 -19 16 1 -0

OGV1 Business 2030 0 -0 -16 26 1 -0

OGV1 Business Total 0 -4 -730 1109 30 -0

OGV1 Commuting 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Commuting 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0


OGV1 Other 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Other 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0


NON MONETISED TIME BENEFITS BY DISTANCE

Time benefits (thousands of person hrs) by distance

Vehicle Type/Submode Purpose Year < 1 kms 1 to 5 kms 5 to 10 kms 10 to 15 kms 15 to 20 kms 20 to 50 kms 50 to 100 kms >100 kms

Car Business 2020 -0 0 0 -0 -0 0 0 -0

Car Business 2030 -0 0 1 -0 -0 0 0 0

Car Business Total -0 8 30 -5 -11 6 6 0

Car Commuting 2020 -0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -0

Car Commuting 2030 -0 1 1 1 -1 3 -0 0

Car Commuting Total -0 46 68 65 -46 145 -21 4

Car Other 2020 -0 2 -1 -2 -1 -0 7 0

Car Other 2030 -0 8 3 2 0 2 9 0

Car Other Total -0 427 155 73 17 99 535 2

LGV Freight Business 2020 -0 -0 0 -1 -0 -1 0 0

LGV Freight Business 2030 -0 1 0 -1 0 -0 0 0

LGV Freight Business Total -0 29 16 -51 4 -6 2 2

LGV Freight Commuting 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


LGV Freight Commuting Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LGV Freight Other 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


LGV Freight Other Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Business 2020 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 0 0 0

OGV1 Business 2030 0 -0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Business Total 0 -1 8 3 -0 12 16 1

OGV1 Commuting 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Commuting 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Commuting Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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OGV1 Other 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Other 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Other Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MONETISED TIME BENEFITS BY DISTANCE

Time benefits (£000s) by distance


Car Business 2020 -0 2 6 -10 -2 6 2 -0

Car Business 2030 -0 2 10 -1 -4 2 2 0


Car Commuting 2020 -0 3 2 -5 -10 -3 -10 -0

Car Commuting 2030 -0 4 6 6 -3 13 -1 0

Car Commuting Total -0 174 253 234 -185 534 -94 14

Car Other 2020 -0 12 -7 -12 -5 -2 33 1

Car Other 2030 -0 32 12 7 2 8 38 0

Car Other Total -0 1415 497 222 46 320 1799 7

LGV Freight Business 2020 -0 -1 1 -6 -1 -7 0 0

LGV Freight Business 2030 -0 5 2 -7 1 -0 0 0

LGV Freight Business Total -0 190 109 -352 28 -53 11 11







OGV1 Business 2020 0 -0 -1 -1 -2 1 2 0

OGV1 Business 2030 0 -0 1 1 0 2 3 0

OGV1 Business Total 0 -6 58 24 -5 96 128 7

OGV1 Commuting 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Commuting 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


OGV1 Other 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Other 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


TOTAL BENEFITS BY DISTANCE

Total benefits (£000s) by distance


Car Business 2020 -0 2 7 -10 -1 5 2 -0

Car Business 2030 -0 3 11 -3 -3 4 1 0


Car Commuting 2020 -0 5 5 -0 -6 4 3 -0

Car Commuting 2030 -0 4 12 12 -2 11 2 0

Car Commuting Total -0 184 475 441 -128 518 68 12

Car Other 2020 -0 16 4 -3 -3 -3 12 1


60


Car Other 2030 -0 37 29 14 5 8 14 0

Car Other Total -0 1592 1061 485 167 308 985 10

LGV Freight Business 2020 -0 -1 2 -4 -0 -5 -1 0

LGV Freight Business 2030 -0 5 4 -2 2 8 -0 0

LGV Freight Business Total -0 205 161 -165 64 219 -4 14







OGV1 Business 2020 0 -0 -1 -1 -3 0 3 -0

OGV1 Business 2030 0 -0 3 2 1 2 3 0

OGV1 Business Total 0 -13 98 53 29 93 138 6

OGV1 Commuting 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Commuting 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


OGV1 Other 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

OGV1 Other 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


SENSITIVITY

Total user benefits as a percentage of total DM user costs

Modelled years

Mode 2020 2030

Road 0.00% 0.00%

Economic Efficiency of the Transport System(TEE)

Consumer - Commuting user benefits All modes Road

Travel Time 930 930

Vehicle operating costs 533 533

User charges 107 107

Construction maintenance delays 0 0

NET CONSUMER - COMMUTING BENEFITS 1570 1570

Consumer - Other user benefits All modes Road

Travel Time 4307 4307

Vehicle operating costs 1830 1830

User charges -1530 -1530

Construction maintenance delays 0 0

NET CONSUMER - OTHER BENEFITS 4608 4608

Business user benefits All modes Road Personal Road Freight

Travel Time 741 495 246

Vehicle operating costs 669 116 554

User charges 54 -45 98

Construction maintenance delays 0 0 0

Subtotal 1464 566 898


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Private Sector Provider Impacts All modes Road

Revenue 0 0

Operating costs 0 0

Investment costs 0 0

Grant/subsidy 0 0

Subtotal 0 0

Other business Impacts All modes Road

Developer contributions 0 0

NET BUSINESS IMPACT 1464

TOTAL

Present Value of Transport Economic Efficiency Benefits (TEE) 7642

Note: In the TEE table benefits appear as positive numbers, while costs appear as negative numbers.

Note: All entries are present values discounted to 2010, in 2010 prices.

Public Accounts

Local Government Funding All modes Road

Revenue -1640 -1640

Operating Costs 0 0

Investment Costs 15733 15733

Developer Contributions 0 0

Grant/Subsidy 0 0

NET IMPACT 14093 14093

Central Government Funding: Transport All modes Road

Revenue 0 0

Operating costs 0 0

Investment costs 0 0

Developer contributions 0 0

Grant/Subsidy 0 0

NET IMPACT 0 0

Central Government Funding: Non-Transport

Indirect tax revenues 1043 1043

TOTALS

Broad Transport Budget 14093 14093

Wider Public Finances 1043 1043

Note: In the Public Accounts table costs appear as positive numbers, while revenues and developer contributions appear as negative numbers.

Note: All entries are present values discounted to 2010, in 2010 prices.

Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits

Greenhouse Gases 357

Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Commuting) 1570

Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Other) 4608

Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers 1464

Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues) -1043

Present Value of Benefits (PVB) 6956

Broad Transport Budget 14093


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Present Value of Costs (PVC) 14093

OVERALL IMPACTS

Net Present Value (NPV) -7137

Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) 0.494

Note: This table includes costs and benefits which are regularly or occasionally presented in monetised form in transport appraisals, together with some where monetisation is in prospect. There may also be other significant costs and benefits, some of which cannot be presented in monetised form. Where this is the case, the analysis presented above does NOT provide a good measure of value for money and should not be used as the sole basis for decisions.


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Table 16: Sectorised Benefits (time)

Liverpool Wirral Knowsley Sefton St Helens Halton West Lancashire

Warrington External Total

Liverpool 0 0 -433,000 0 135,000 7,000 0 6,000 0 -284,000

Wirral 0 0 83,000 0 5,000 0 0 3,000 0 91,000

Knowsley 131,000 -53,000 2,135,000 -584,000 761,000 -290,000 184,000 544,000 470,000 3,297,000

Sefton 0 0 1,666,000 0 8,000 -17,000 0 35,000 0 1,692,000

St Helens -90,000 -5,000 837,000 -84,000 -172,000 -48,000 -19,000 -9,000 -25,000 385,000

Halton -20,000 0 -1,106,000 -21,000 -27,000 4,000 -1,000 -3,000 -4,000 -1,179,000

West Lancashire 0 0 588,000 0 -4,000 0 0 6,000 0 590,000

Warrington 5,000 1,000 -383,000 -110,000 7,000 -20,000 -66,000 62,000 -67,000 -571,000

External 0 0 1,866,000 0 -46,000 -2,000 0 139,000 0 1,958,000

Total 26,000 -58,000 5,254,000 -799,000 667,000 -367,000 98,000 783,000 374,000 5,979,000


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H. DfT Guidance

Thank you for your query.

It is possible to appraise a number of different impacts not specifically mentioned within A2.3,

such as greenhouse gas emissions and accident benefits. The appraisal of these impacts

should be based on the transport model scenarios C and A:

• Scenario A – without the dependent new housing and without the scheme

• Scenario C – with the dependent new housing and with the scheme.

As scenarios A and C are both constrained to NTEM totals, the key difference between the

scenarios is the trip origins.

With respect to journey time reliability we advise that this be estimated using the same transport

model scenarios as for the user benefits calculation:

• Scenario A – without the dependent new housing and without the scheme

• Scenario D – without the dependent new housing but with the scheme

Wider Economic Impacts should not be estimated in addition to the land value uplift. WEI are

likely to be partly captured in the land value uplift. Thus a separate estimation of WEIs would

lead to double counting.

TASM

Access to Halsnead Garden Village Outline Business Case · 2019-02-27 · 2.4.7 TUBA Outputs 19 2.5...

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