Accelerating

the global energy transition

The 5th Northeast Asia Energy Security Forum

Seoul, 12 December 2017

Global energy mix still

dependent on conventional

non-renewable energy

But in the electricity sector renewable

energy accounts for the majority of

new capacity installed every year

Trends in the energy sector

Dramatic increase of RE in the global generation mix

Source: IRENA

Ongoing power sector transformation

RE capacity

installed in year 2016:

71 GW solar

51 GW wind

30 GW hydropower

9 GW biomass

◉ Around 25% renewable power generation share worldwide

Levelised costs of electricity for utility scale power (ranges and averages), 2010 and 2016

costing.irena.org

RE Costs - Trends

Targets in the global renewable energy landscape

173 countries

have at least one type of

renewable energy target

– up from 43 in 2005

Source: IRENA (2015), Renewable energy target setting.

Ambitious acceleration needed

6

To meet sustainable development goals and decarbonise global energy use,

renewables need to be scaled up significantly.

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2010 2015

FIT (FIP)

RPO

Auctions

Number of countries with renewable energy policies, by type

Key role of enabling policies

Types of renewable energy policies and measures

8

Stre

ngt

hs

Wea

knes

ses

Auctions

Flexibility in the design according to conditions and objectives

Permit real price discovery

Provide greater certainty regarding prices and quantities

Enable commitments and transparency

Are associated with relatively high transaction costs for both developer and auctioneer

Risk of underbuilding and delays

Based on REN21 Global Status Report (2005 to 2016)

Auctions strengths and weaknesses

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of countries that have adopted auctions

Renewable Energy Auctions

RE Auctions - Recent highlights

Evolution of utility-scale solar PV prices in selected countries

Policy trends - Auctions

The power sector transition

11

Annual gross aggregated electricity production from gas-fired, solar and wind

electricity plants in the European Union

Major shift in the EU over the past 20 years

Increasing generation from VRE

Based on Ecofys

Need for flexibility

13

Crucial role of transmission and distribution grids

Adapted from CESP, MAVIR, PSE SA and SEPS, 2013

Average unscheduled cross-border power flows from Germany (MW)

Flexibility and Market Design

Net load ramps for different penetration levels of solar PV

CAISO - California (CAISO, 2016)ERCOT – Texas (MIT, 2015)

Rethinking distribution networks and distributed energy resources

16

• Take into consideration

benefits for the consumers

and for the system as a

whole

• Crucial role of distribution

networks

• Move away from a ‘fit and

forget’ approach

Sample day load profile and self consumption from PV for

a plastic manufacturing company

Distributed generation, demand response, distributed storage, electric vehicles

will play a fundamental role in the power system transition

Key role of technology innovation

Enabling Infrastruc-

ture

Business Models

Market regulation

System Operation

Electric Vehicles Storage

Digitalization - IoT

Platform business model

Aggregators- VPP

Decentralized system

Value spatial

complementarities -

interconnections

Value

complementarities

in VRE

Electrification of other

sectors

Encourage Flexibility RE

Tech.

Emerging Innovations:

E-mobility

Storage and Electric Vehicles Smart Charging (mobile storage)

Grid Services:

• Primary and secondary reserves:

• Enhanced Frequency Response

• Frequency Containment Reserve

• Frequency Restoration Reserve

• Energy Shifting

Behind-the-meter:

• Solar self consumption

• Community Storage

• Increased Power Quality

• Peak shaving

Grid to Vehicle (G2V):

• Load management: peak shifting

Vehicle to Grid (V2G):

• Primary and secondary reserves

• Other ancillary services

• Energy shifting

Vehicle to Home (V2H):

• Solar self consumption

• Increased Power Quality

• Peak shaving

Provide flexibility to the grid

STABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE AVAILABLE 24/7

HIGH AVAILABILITY

FACTORS (~90%) FOR

BASE LOAD AND/OR

ANCILLARY SERVICES

NEGLIGIBLE

ENVIRONMENTAL AND

VISUAL IMPACT

REDUCED ENERGY

DEPENDENCY, STABLE JOBS AND

LOCAL ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT

Geothermal energy: main benefits

Geothermal heated greenhouse in Hveragerdi, Iceland

WIDE AVAILABILITY OF LOW TEMPERATURE RESOURCES FOR DIRECT USES

FOR BUILDINGS, INDUSTRY, AGRICULTURE, ETC.

Geothermal heated greenhouse in Hveragerdi, Iceland

Not only solar and wind…

HIGH UPFRONT COSTS AND RISKS

ASSOCIATED WITH RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

POLICY

UNCERTAINTY

ENVIRONMENTAL

CONCERNS AND

LICENSING

SHORTAGE OF SKILLED

PROFESSIONAL

LACK OF INSTITUTIONAL

CAPACITY

LOW AWARENESS AND LIMITED

INFORMATION IN DECISION MAKERS

Why the modest growth?

Can international cooperation and partnerships help overcome key geothermal challenges?

21

Global Geothermal Alliance is the platform for improved dialogue and coordinated action

among key geothermal stakeholders to scale up geothermal deployment

The role of Geothermal

A Joint Communiqué issued at the GGA Launch

➢ Neutrality and transparency

➢ Build on what is on the ground and scale up

➢ No bureaucracy

➢ Enabling most mature projects or countries with transformative potential

➢ Unlocking projects facing policy, legal, regulatory, fiscal, funding, capacity building challenges

Geothermal Power Installed Capacity Worldwide

6,832 7,972 8,93310,897 12,635

63,175

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

MW

by 2030Up to 5x geothermal power

More than 2x geothermal heat

Source: IRENA Remap 2030

22

GGA MEMBERS - 42 COUNTRIES ACCROS THE GLOBE

• Argentina• Bolivia• Chile• Colombia• Costa Rica• Ecuador• El Salvador• Guatemala• Honduras• Mexico• Nicaragua• Peru• Saint Vincent & Grenadines• USA

• IDB• OAS• US Geothermal Association• US Energy Association• Canadian Geothermal

Association

AMERICAS / CARIBBEAN

• France• Iceland• Italy• Netherlands• Poland• Romania• Switzerland• Turkey

• Nordic Development Fund• European Geothermal Energy Council• GeoEnergy Celle e.V. (Germany)• Iceland Geothermal Cluster• GeoDeep (France)• Geothermal Power Plants Investors

Association (Turkey)

EUROPE

• India• Indonesia• Malaysia• Pakistan• Philippines

ASIA

• Burundi• Comoros• Djibouti• Egypt• Kenya• Tanzania• Uganda• Zambia• Zimbabwe

• AfDB• AUC• EAPP• NEPAD• RCREEE• SAPP

AFRICA

• Fiji• New Zealand• Papua New Guinea• Solomon Islands• Tonga• Vanuatu

• SPC

PACIFIC / OCEANIA

GGA PARTNERS – 31 INSTITUTIONS ACCROS THE GLOBE

INDUSTRY, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, REGIONAL AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATIONS, ACADEMIA AND RESEARCH

• IRENA• International Geothermal Association• IsDB• UN Environment• WB ESMAP

GLOBAL

Strong Commitment to GGAOver 70 Members and Partners

23

Resource and Market Assessment

Needs and Obstacles Assessment

Enabling Frameworks

Networking and Outreach

GGA Action Plan and prioritiesAdopted by GGA Members in May 2016

24

Employment by Country

Renewable energy jobs globally today

Source: IRENA (2017), Renewable Energy and Jobs – Annual Review 2017

Including Large Hydropower

⬆1.1%Excluding Large

Hydropower

⬆2.8%

Thank you