Accelerated Transformation

download Accelerated Transformation

of 20

Transcript of Accelerated Transformation

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    1/20

    2008

    Accelerated Transformation-

    Investments in Indian Real Estate

    INTRODUCTION

    Buy land, they are not making it anymore.

    Mark Twain

    This quote from the American humorist could well

    suggest the emerging strategic blueprint for private

    equity investors taking exposure in the Indian real

    estate sector and indeed in other such emerging

    economies. This report is a follow-up study on the

    trends and growth of investments in Indias real

    estate sector, subsequent to the first such study,Accelerating Transformation, which was first

    released in 2Q07.

    The intent and objectives of this report are very

    much along the lines of the f irst report, with the

    main focus on revisiting the fund view of the real

    estate market after the initial study. Much like the

    first one, the aim of this paper is to understand

    the nuances and impact of the ebb and tide of new

    investment flows into the real estate sector that

    have been noticed in the last one year.

    While the first part of this paper reviews the

    changing trends in real estate investment and

    conjoint changes that were noticed in the regulatory

    framework for the same, the latter par t of this

    report is anticipative of the sentiments of real

    estate funds, both global and domestic, which have

    flowed in post Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

    liberalisation and continue to consistently come in.

    The latter aspect has been captured by way of

    a structured primary survey of such funds that

    are already active in Indian property markets.

    The collated data from these surveys have been

    presented in order to provide an indicative

    perspective of the fund view with respect to

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    2/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate

    anticipated paths, patterns and prospects of the Indian

    real estate markets.

    The paper is in no way all-comprehensive nor

    encompassing of the various issues related to the

    changing trends of investment into Indian real estate and

    the impact thereof, but is an attempt to try and highlight

    pertinent themes and issues that would be important

    determinants of the trajectory that Indian real estate

    markets follow in the future.

    ChaNgINg TReNDs IN INbOUND RealesTaTe INvesTmeNTs

    Global Real Estate Capital, a definitive report released

    in March 2008 by Jones Lang LaSalle, depicts the

    tremendous increase in global cross-border flows in

    real estate markets worldwide. According to the report,

    global direct commercial real estate investment totalled

    a record USD 759 billion in 2007, a 8% rise on volumes

    in the same period last year. For the full year 2006, this

    figure was USD 699 billion. In terms of recipients of

    this f low, the report states that the Americas, Europe

    and Asia Pacific once again achieved record investment

    volumes with Asia Pacific real estate markets in

    particular witnessing a signif icant increase in cross-border interest. India has not been an exception to this

    trend, especially since early 2005, when FDI policy for

    the real estate sector was eased fur ther.

    Since our first report Accelerating Transformation

    released around a year ago, quite a few significant trends

    have emerged, both in terms of the scale and volume of

    funds that have f lowed into Indian real estate through

    various routes, including private equity, public capital

    raising and debt financing, as well as in the approach

    of global and Indian funds towards Indian real estate

    markets. This section is an attempt to compile thesechanging trends that have occurred in the interim time

    and the impact of such changes on the future funding

    and investment scenarios in Indian real estate.

    Since our first report, an overriding theme that is

    noticeable is that investors, whether global or Indian,

    private or institutional, have seriously gone down to

    the brass tacks of exploring and implementing the

    investment process. While a year ago, many of the

    first-time investors may have just started the process of

    exploration of investing in Indian real estate. Now, quitea few of them have already invested and are steadily

    discovering the grass-root realities of operating in India.

    Prit equit Intnt Trnd

    To put in context the changes that have taken place in

    the private equity space, it is interesting to compare and

    contrast the headline figures regarding private equity

    investments in Indian real estate.

    In our first report, we had estimated that there seem

    to be anywhere between 100120 India-specific realestate funds (global and domestic) that are in various

    stages of operation, ranging from planning, sett ing

    up or investment mode, around 5060% of which are

    considered to be active. As of Q1FY08, the estimated

    total number of private equity funds that are operational

    in India could be as many as 150, with around two-thirds

    of them in the active category. It is important to state

    here that the active category of funds can generally

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    3/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate

    be defined as those that have operations on ground in

    the country and are actively sourcing and completing

    investment transactions.

    The other main indicator of activity levels for such real

    estate funds is the broad figure of investment that is in

    the pipeline from these funds. As in the previous report,

    this compiling is an uphill task as there are various

    estimates that keep getting reported in the media from

    time to time regarding the total FDI in the pipeline for

    Indian real estate. These estimates range from anywhere

    between USD 15 billion and USD 20 billion to be

    deployed over the next three years. Given the number of

    funds that are operational and others that are planning

    to enter the country, it is quite possible that the totalinvestment pipeline can eventually be higher than the

    estimates published.

    Finally, the source of capital for these real estate funds,

    both old and new, pretty much remain the same as what

    we had stated in the f irst report and include Indian and

    global institutional funds (which now include global

    pension funds and endowment funds), proprietary funds,

    private equity, high-net-worth individuals and other

    third-party funds. However, there has been a perceptible

    trend of global direct real estate investors investingthrough India-specific real estate funds rather than

    taking direct exposure in deals.

    This growing interest in Indian real estate is attributed to

    the change in perception of the Indian real estate sector

    from quicksand to emerging sector based on the

    following leading parameters:

    Signicant performance of listed real estate stocks and

    real estate companies IPOs especially in the year 2007.

    Increased foreign institutional investors (FII) exposurein listed real estate stocks over the years.

    Allowing FDI in real estate, and with the entry of

    multinational developers like IJM, Ascendas, Hines,

    CapitaLand and Keppel Land to name a few, awareness

    of the sector amongst the investor community has risen

    Improved prospects for the real estate sector on the

    back of the IT/ITES boom, overall economic growth,

    growing local industries and the resulting impact on

    residential and retail-asset categories

    Progressive state governments that are giving special

    emphasis to infrastructure and development, creating

    opportunities for existing and emerging urban centres.

    It is important to take cognisance of two sets of data

    regarding foreign fund inflows by government nodal

    bodies, which detail an indication of a quantum of FDIinflows coming into the country.

    The first data set is from the Department of Industrial

    Policy and Promotion (DIPP), which discloses FDI

    inflows in the country detailing funding initially

    committed by foreign investors since 2005 after FDI was

    allowed in Indian real estate.

    Foreign Direct Investments in Indian Housing & Real Estate

    YearAmount inINR billion

    Amount inUSD billion

    Share in TotalFDI Flowing intoIndia (%)

    2005-2006 (April-March) 1.7 0.043 0.7

    2006-2007 (April-March) 21.2 0. 53 3.0

    20072008 (AprilNovember 2007)

    51.6 1.29 11.4

    Total 74.5 1.86

    Source: www.dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_fdi_Nov2007.pdf

    Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP)Exchange rate assumed USD 1 = INR 40

    It is interesting to note that the FDI inf lows data in

    the real estate sector that was released by the DIPP

    has risen by 2,918% from FY20052006 to touch USD

    1290 million in 20072008 (April-November 2007). As

    impressive as the growth may be in percentage terms,

    it is notable that the total FDI inflows as defined by

    the DIPP is still less than USD 2 billion. Moreover, it

    is important to note that FDI inflows into real estate,

    as part of the total FDI flows into the country, rose

    from 0.7% in 20052006 to 11.4% in 20072008 (April-

    November), which is quite significant.

    The second set of data is released by the Securities and

    Exchanges Board of India (SEBI), which is the nodal

    capital markets regulator in the country. Table in the

    following page details the private equity investments

    into Indian real estate from domestic and offshore

    private equity venture capital investors listed over the

    period September 2006September 2007. According to

    the SEBI, the data represented in the table captures the

    funding commitments into Indian real estate investments

    by real estate PE funds that are declared to the regulator

    in prescribed reporting formats.

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    4/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate

    Real Estate Private Equity Investments

    Quarter

    DomesticFunds

    Offshore Funds Total

    Amtin INRbillion

    Amt inUSDbillion

    Amtin INRbillion

    Amt inUSDbillion

    Amtin INRbillion

    Amt inUSDbillion

    September2006

    22.50 0.563 13.20 0.330 35.70 0.893

    December2006

    26.26 0.657 14.30 0.358 40.56 1.014

    March2007

    15.65 0.391 12.92 0.323 28.57 0.714

    June2007

    19.00 0.475 8.88 0.222 27.88 0.697

    September2007

    21.33 0.533 15.14 0.379 36.47 0.912

    Total 104.74 2.619 64.44 1.611 169.18 4.230Source: www.sebi.gov.in/index.jsp?contentdisp=sitemap

    Securities and Exchanges Board of India (SEBI)Exchange rate assumed USD 1 = INR 40

    Released on 8 November 2007

    In terms of other broad trends, it is notable that many

    new third-party funds have been launched since we

    conducted our first survey on real estate private equity

    investments in India. Also, most of the funds that

    were previously operational have gone for subsequent

    round(s) of fund raising, augmenting their corpus size.

    Interestingly, fund of funds continue to more or less

    Almost every day, there are media reports of huge

    investments by fundsIndian or global, developers

    and corporations. These are typically in large and

    small projects like integrated townships, IT and office

    parks, SEZs, mega retail and amusement complexes

    etc. Even just five years back, such large investmentsby domestic developers and investors were few and

    new developments were typically funded by Indian

    developers own equity, some institutional debt funding

    and pre-sales. Exit from these assets was almost

    inevitably through sale of the product on a strata-

    titled basis to High Net-worth Indian investors, Indian

    Financial Institutions and Corporates.

    However, as the size of investments grows significantly

    on the back of FDI inflows, more exit options haveemerged, such as in the form of listing asset or a

    bouquet of assets of a similar category on Indian or

    overseas stock exchanges. In the future, it is possible

    that other exit routes might emerge such as selling

    assets to a single investorlike Real Estate Investment

    Trusts (REITs) or Real Estate Mutual Funds (REMFs) or

    Foreign Institutional Investors.

    There has already been considerable discussion

    regarding allowing REITs and REMFs in India, although

    regulations are yet to be formalised. As has been seen

    globally, the advent of REITs and REMFs typically

    open up many more exit options for private equity

    funds as well as enhance the liquidity of real estate

    assets, all of which works towards expanding and

    increasing the depth of the real estate market and its

    conjoint securities market. Until the time these new

    routes are allowed, the funds would have to be contentwith the existing options of exit from their respective

    investments.

    Investing is as much about exit as it is about returns

    follow their established strategy of investing through

    other third-party funds rather than taking direct

    exposure in terms of real estate investment.

    Also, it is increasingly being noticed that global hedge

    funds and proprietary funds are coming in as anchor

    investors in new third-party fund launches or in

    subsequent capital raising by existing third-party funds.

    Another trend which has emerged is that there has

    been a perceptible influx of foreign pension funds and

    endowment funds that have started investing through

    domestic real estate third-party funds, even when they

    had previously been exposed to Global/Asia Pacific

    real estate funds launched by global leaders in asset

    management businesses.

    Finally, with more wealth management firms

    increasingly evaluating real estate as an asset class,

    allocations to real estate funds in total portfolio is rising.

    Typically, some of these wealth-management firms are

    tying up with Indian real estate funds for deployment of

    their clients capital, albeit at a retail level, which would

    enable easy fund raising in the future as well as increase

    the assets under management (AUM) of domestic funds.

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    5/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate

    Cpit Riin in Indi nd arod

    The capital raising momentum continued strongly all of

    2007 and has shown signs of abating, at least on Indian

    bourses, during Q12008. The story of capital raising

    from foreign stock exchanges AIM and Euronext,which was quite significant and highlighted as such

    in the first investment report, seems to have sobered

    down considerably in the last one year. The only

    reported instances of further capital raising in foreign

    stock exchanges include real estate fund Yatra raising

    a second round of funds on Euronext and Ascendas a

    Singaporean developer that owns IT Parks in India got

    listed as a REIT at a yield of 4.75% on Singapore Stock

    Exchange (SGX).

    Fund raising by Indian developers and real estatecompanies on the Indian stock exchanges seems to have

    remained strong in 2007. In FY2006, real estate IPOs

    were the second largest mobiliser of funds from the

    stock markets, grossing INR 39.9 billion (USD 0.998

    billion) and in FY2007-08, a further INR 142.2 billion

    (USD 3.55 billion; assuming USD1=INR40) is estimated

    to have been raised by real estate companies in India.

    This is almost a three-fold increase over capital raising

    in 2006, and is much attributable to large IPOs such as

    DLF, which itself raised INR 91.88 billion (USD 2.297

    billion)

    The following table attempts to compile details of

    notable IPO listings which have taken place in the period

    April 2007 to December 2007:

    Money Raised by Indian Real Estate Companies by IPOs fromApril 07- December 07

    Company Issue Size Oversub-scribedby

    IssuePriceBand(INR)

    ListingDate

    IssuePrice(INR)

    ConsolidatedConstructionConsortium Ltd

    3,700,000 81 460510 18 Nov2007

    510

    DLF Ltd 175,000,000 3.47 500550 11June2007

    525

    Gremach

    InfrastructureEquipments &Projects Ltd

    8,194,445 NA 7286 8

    March2007

    86

    HousingDevelopment andInfrastructure Ltd

    29,700,000 6.5 430500 28June2007

    500

    Maytas Infra Ltd 8,850,000 67.86 320370 27Sept2007

    370

    Omaxe Ltd 17,796,520 76.51 265310 17 July2007

    310

    PuravankaraProjects Ltd

    21,467,610 NA 400450 31 July2007

    400

    Roman TarmatLtd

    2,900,000 29.67 150175 12June2007

    175

    IVR Prime UrbanDevelopers

    14,510,000 5.75 510600 16August2007

    418

    BrigadeEnterprisesLimited

    16,624,720 13 351-390 10 Dec2007

    390

    Kolte-PatilDevelopers Ltd

    19,000,836 46 125-145 19 Nov2007

    145

    Source: www.bseindia.com and related websites

    Stock markets continued their buoyant northbound

    journey and the countrys leading indicator Sensex

    touched 20,000 on 29 October 2007. Thus, India became

    the twentieth nation in the world to have seen its stock

    market benchmark touch the 20,000-point milestone.

    Despite over 2,000 points of correction preceding the

    run-up to this new high in the markets, listed real estate

    stocks as well as real estate IPOs only gained from

    the overall buoyancy in sentiments and the resulting

    heightened liquidity in the year 2007.

    Apart from the general upbeat market sentiment, there

    are other reasons behind the success of IPO raisings

    especially in the year 2007. Firstly, there was improved

    profitability of real estate developers on the back of

    REAL ESTATE: GRABBING MEDIA SPACE

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    6/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate

    consistent sales. Secondly, the real estate sector, despite

    steep valuations, continued to attract retail investor

    and institutional investor attention on the back of the

    improving perception of the sector at least till end 2007.

    However the IPO market sobered down in the beginning

    of the year 2008 and Emaar MGF had to withdraw its

    IPO due to lack of adequate subscription. The global and

    domestic market volatility, global credit crunch and lack

    of investor confidence in general can be attributed to

    this.

    There are two trends worth noting in the IPO space.

    First, while real estate IPOs in 2007 sailed through

    on the back of investor subscription, the level of

    over subscription figures for the IPOs was not as

    overwhelming as compared to their preceding peers.

    Second, real estate IPOs also came under scrutiny by the

    SEBI, which issued cautionary comments on companies

    that were asking for high IPO valuations on the back of

    land bank valuations.

    This was based on three important aspects noticed by

    the SEBI in the past few quarters that raised its eyebrows

    and prompted real estate companies IPOs to be brought

    under the scanner. These include the fact that real estate

    stocks had been steadily attaining very high valuations

    as well as real estate IPOs being offered at relatively

    high valuations on the back of their land banks during

    2007. This in-turn resulted in a few policy changes and

    tightening of controls and also laying down fur ther

    norms for real estate companies going in for IPOs which

    are detailed as follows:

    IPO valuations were typically driven by quantum

    and value of land bank of companies. In many cases,

    land bank valuations were also based on subjectivity

    and the element of discretion. In some cases, it was

    seen that land banks included parcels which were not

    fully owned by the company or some parcels that did

    not have clear marketable titles. To tackle this during

    March 2007, SEBI has initiated a process of setting

    valuation guidelines, which are due to be released.

    Also, in the interim, SEBI asked real estate companies

    that are going for IPOs to mention the details of land

    ownership and the method of valuation. This would

    allow investors to clearly understand the contribution

    of land not totally acquired, or not having marketabletitles in the overall valuation of the company going in

    for IPO.

    Previously, pre-IPO placements of real estate

    companies were categorised as FII investments in

    the company and did not require any permissions,

    approvals etc. However, the RBI stopped clearingapplications from several real estate companies that

    were hoping to tap overseas investors ahead of their

    plans to launch IPOs around April 2007, stating that

    pre-IPO placement by a real estate company to FIIs

    would be allowed only if all projects undertaken by the

    company are FDI compliant. This was on the premise

    that FII investment is also considered as foreign

    investment and has to comply with FIPB guidelines.

    This provision did slowdown the activity on real estate

    pre-IPO placements but only for a short while, as this

    guideline did not remain in force for long and was

    reversed in August 2007, allowing pre-IPO placements

    as it was earlier.

    There is one trend that is steadily picking pace and

    going forward. It seems that it could be a shape of

    things to come, at least in the build up to more IPOs

    of unlisted real estate companies. This trend is that of

    enterprise-level transactions, wherein funds invest in

    the development company itself, instead of investing

    in a project. During the last one year, there has been a

    steady rise in enterprise-level transactions, wherein thenal outcome is expected to be an IPO, which is also

    the route for the developer and the fund to dilute their

    equity. The benets of this route include:

    Discovering and setting valuation benchmarks and

    unlocking value in an unlisted real estate company

    and the inherent value of the companys projects

    Allowing the developer to understand the

    investment cycle and the psyche of institutional

    investors before going public

    Infusing equity early on at the enterprise level to

    leverage the ability to increase project sizes and

    land banks with a view to eventually achieve higher

    valuations

    Going through a formal rst round of due diligence,

    making things easier during the second round of due

    diligence as a run-up to an IPO

    Allowing the enterprise to progress on corporate

    governance and systems in order to ensure higher

    levels of transparency for institutional investors insuch companies

    i.

    ii.

    iii.

    iv.

    v.

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    7/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate

    Going forward there is expected to be heightened

    activity in such enterprise-level transactions, and

    eventually building the pipeline for IPOs by such

    companies, when the stock market conditions arefavourable. This could be a win-win situation both for

    the funds and developers as well as for the institutional

    and retail investors as it would considerably increase

    the depth of the real estate listed securities in the stock

    market. This would allow investors to choose from more

    options as well as benefit from increased and improved

    disclosures by the companies going public.

    Currently, going by the figures of capital raising on stock

    markets (in India and overseas) as well as FDI by way of

    private equity, the former seems to have slightly highervolumes on a year to year basis. Whilst it is difficult to

    predict which one would take the lead over the other in

    terms of the quantum of funds raised for the real estate

    sector; going forward all routes of capital funding would

    maintain their importance for real estate companies.

    POlICy ChaNges OveR The lasTONe yeaR

    In our previous report, we had detailed regulatory

    changes which allowed FDI into real estate over the last

    few years and had also indicated to some proactive policy

    changes that were in the pipeline. In this section, we try

    and detail the policy changes that have occurred in the

    last one year.

    Firstly, SEBI has moved a step ahead in driving

    interest in enterprise-level transactions by giving some

    relaxations to registered private equity (PE) funds, which

    would be a positive move for investors as well as real

    estate companies. According to the SEBI (Disclosure and

    Investor Protection) Guidelines 2000, PE funds, which

    are registered with the SEBI and investing in unlisted

    companies, proposing an IPO have to hold the shares forone year from the day of listing. This is known as the

    lock-in period requirement. However, in the SEBI Press

    Release 166/2006, this has been amended, exempting

    SEBI-registered PE funds from the lock-in period

    requirements if they have held the shares of the then-

    unlisted company for at least one year at the time of ling

    of the draft prospectus by the company proposing an IPO.

    This move is expected to ensure that only those PE

    funds that participate in the company with a long-term

    perspective are allowed to receive the benet of theexemption from the lock-in period requirements, as

    intended by the SEBI. Moreover, this could give a llip

    to enterprise-level transactions, and result in more real

    estate IPOs in the Indian stock exchanges.

    In addition, the move by SEBI to come out with long

    awaited Draft REIT Guidelines as a rst attempt to

    initiate the process of operationalising REITs in India

    has been a very important announcement, which has

    been seen as a very positive move by analysts in the

    sector. Internationally India has not been late to join thebandwagon as some developed (G8) countries like UK

    and Germany allowed REITs in 2007 even as markets

    such as Russia and Italy still do not have REITs.

    The draft guidelines issued by SEBI are still under

    review and discussion. Once this process is completed,

    the legislation would be framed and thereafter notied,

    which is expected to take some time. In the instance

    that the nal regulation is formulated allowing REITs

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    8/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate

    to operate in the country, the Indian real estate market is

    likely to graduate to the next level of maturity, allowing

    developers and investors in Indian real estate an easier

    option for exit as well as infusing higher levels ofliquidity and activity in the markets.

    Also the guidelines for REMFs are expected to be issued

    by SEBI shortly which would enable the retail investors

    to participate in the countrys booming realty sector.

    While the regulatory changes stated above relate more

    to listed and unlisted real estate companies proposing an

    IPO, the policy changes of Indias central bank Reserve

    Bank of India (RBI) are somewhat more sector specic.

    Notably, in the last one year, the RBI has taken a lead in

    regulating capital inows into real estate markets in India

    due to concerns of inationary pressure building up in

    this sector. Consequently, there has been a spurt of RBI

    circulars aimed at regulating the capital inows into this

    sector.

    The RBI has been concerned with the dual issues of the

    Indian economy facing challenges of a strong rupee,

    which hurt export-oriented industries, as well avoiding

    scenarios like the late-1990s South-East Asian meltdown

    experience. A pointer of this concern is the fact that the

    RBI vide AP (DIR Series) Circular No 5 dated 1 August

    2005, has completely stopped inows through debt route

    for real estate projects in the country by disallowing

    external commercial borrowings (ECBs) in the sector.

    Apart from the ECBs various other quasi-debt routes

    such as non-convertible debentures were also disallowed.

    The following is a compilation of the indicative summary

    of the RBI circulars of 2007, which actually show the

    policy changes that have been effected:

    RbI Circur 30 apri 2007

    To curb debts coming under the guise of preference

    shares, the RBI amended the guidelines stating that any

    foreign investment should come in as fully convertible

    preference shares instead of partly/optionally/non-

    convertible preference shares. Also, these fully

    convertible preference shares would be treated as part

    of the share capital. This move would deter many

    lenders to lend to Indian real estate companies in

    absence of adequate security and comfortable structure.

    To increase the impact of this circular, the RBI further

    stated that other types of preference shares like

    non-convertible and optionally convertible would be

    treated as debt and are required to conform to ECB

    guidelines and caps. Also, ECBs are disallowed in the

    real estate sector, except for the development of SEZs

    and integrated townships. This means that any structureor instrument other than fully convertible preference

    and equity shares would be treated as debt, and hence

    totally stopping debt inows.

    RbI Circur 18 m 2007

    Later, the RBI took a step forward by bringing

    integrated township development within the net of

    real estate development projects wherein ECBs are

    disallowed. This move left only SEZ development

    companies amongst all real estate projects, which could

    raise ECBs.

    ECB guidelines allow only those companies that

    have a better credit rating and repayment capacity to

    venture into international markets to raise debt. This

    could be judged by the companys ability to raise debt

    at lower rates. To shrink the ECB window and only

    allow better companies to raise ECBs, the RBI has

    reduced all incost ceilings to 150 basis points over the

    sixmonth London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR)

    from 200 basis points for ECBs of three to ve years.

    For more than veyear tenor ECBs, the cost ceilingwas reduced to 250 basis points over LIBOR from 350

    basis points.

    These moves reduced the number of borrowers who

    could raise debt overseas.

    RbI Circur 7 auut 2007

    Increased ECB inow and a weakening dollar caught the

    RBIs critical attention, thus the RBI brought a check on

    inows through ECBs through the following measures:

    ECBs are permitted only for foreign-currency

    expenditure and funds must be parked overseas and not

    brought in India. This means that foreign currency debt

    raised is used only for making payments in foreign

    currency, and also, that this money does not come into

    India and get converted into Indian rupee, and in turn,

    hurt the US dollar.

    Borrowers deliberating ECB up to USD 20 million

    for rupee expenditure for permissible end-uses (like

    developing SEZ) will require prior approval from the

    RBI. This means that a domestic borrower can bring

    in a maximum debt of USD 20 million in India and

    convert it into Indian rupee, subject to RBI approval.

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    9/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate

    The ne print to this permission is that it is only for

    those sectors and end uses that were allowed by the

    RBI.

    Along the same lines, the RBI seems to be equally

    concerned about the quantum of domestic debt flowing

    into the real estate sector and the banks exposure to

    this sector. The RBI has on various occasions raised

    concerns regarding the same, which is evident from the

    moves that are outlined below:

    Increasing the cash reserve ratio (CRR), which would

    increase the amount of monies that a bank has to

    keep in cash within itself. This in turn would reduce

    the quantum of monies that the bank can lend to all

    sectors.

    Increasing risk weightage for the real estate sector

    from 100% to 150% would result in the increased

    requirement of equity in the overall debt that is

    advanced to the real estate sector. This would reduce

    advances to the real estate sector because banks would

    need commensurately higher equity to lend to real

    estate. Also, this would increase debt cost, as the equity

    portion of advances would rise, and equity is always

    costlier than debt.

    The overall sectoral cap on advances to the real

    estate sector. Again, housing loans and lease rental

    discounting (LRD) are classied in the real estate

    sector, reducing the amount available for disbursement

    to real estate developers as construction loans.

    These policy amendments by RBI have denitely curbed

    the recourse to debt, whether overseas or domestic,

    for Indian developers of real estate projects. Coupled

    with the rising interest rate regime, this means that the

    Indian real estate development sector has been hit on

    two accounts. Firstly, debt curbing reduces the ability

    to leverage equity and the latterinterest rate hike

    increases their cost of funds. All in all, whether for land

    acquisition or for project construction, the role of equity

    has assumed even greater importance. This may be good

    news for real estate funds, but eventually, higher debt

    costs and higher equity capital base would inevitably

    hit returns. If one adds the slackening IPO market, then

    funding prospects for develoopers looks quite an uphill

    task in the near future.

    Finally another signicant policy announcement, albeit

    specic to Mumbai city was the long due and awaited

    repealing of archaic Urban Land Ceiling Regulation Act

    (ULCRA) in Maharastra. With Maharastra repealing

    ULCRA, only three states in India still continue to have

    the restrictive Urban Land Ceiling legislation including

    - West Bengal, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. The Actled to locking of prime parcels of Urban land in main

    metropolitan cities and its repeal in Mumbai is expected

    to free signicant prime urban land parcels in Mumbai

    city for development. Given the exponential demand for

    land in Mumbai over the last few years, this pro-active

    move by the government, is anticipated to release prime

    land for development.

    Overall, it would not be wrong to note that the policy

    changes are being proactively adjusted to the pace of

    changes that are taking place on ground in the Indian realestate investment sector. This is reective of the growing

    importance of the sector and the global fund ows that

    it is attracting. There has certainly been heightened

    interest in the sector by regulatory organisations such as

    the RBI, SEBI and the DIPP, and even though there are

    other policy changes awaited by the industry, the pace

    of proactive policy change has been quite impressive till

    now.

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    10/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate10

    Real esTaTe FUNDs sURvey

    Ojcti nd approc

    As with our first report on investment in the Indian realestate sector, the objectives of this study has remained

    to understand the sentiments and anticipation among

    the various funds that are already active in the Indian

    property markets. To achieve this, a structured primary

    survey of active real estate funds and investors was

    conducted during Q42007. The intent behind the second

    survey is to capture the change in views and opinions

    regarding investment funds in the real estate markets

    since the first survey was done in Q12007.

    A structured questionnaire covering both macro andmicro issues pertinent to the Indian real estate markets,

    was circulated to over 90 such real estate funds and

    feedback was solicited from them. Around 50% of

    positive responses were obtained after completion of the

    survey and the remaining balance either declined the

    request or did not respond.

    The collated results of the survey detailed in this

    section provide pointers to the overall sentiment that is

    prevailing within these funds regarding the state of the

    economy, the anticipated returns from Indian real estate,top cities and sectoral choices for investment as well as

    other specific issues relating to the investment process

    such as the expected IRR.

    The survey is by no means comprehensive nor all

    encompassing and is pegged to the time frame in which

    it was conducted, given that both the investment and

    the real estate market are currently quite dynamic.

    The responses by the same token may vary over

    time, depending on macro-market and micro-market

    conditions. However, the collated results shouldhopefully provide an insight into the prevailing

    investment sentiments as of end of 2007.

    sur Outco

    Headline Indicators

    Like in the preceeding funds survey conducted in

    Q12007, an attempt has been made to obtain some

    headline indicators as regards the number and the status

    of various real estate funds operating in the country. To

    achieve this objective, data was collated from various

    sources, including primary sources (survey), as detailed

    in the preceding section and ratified with secondary data

    published in various media and other reports.

    The ballpark headline estimates that emerged from this

    collation are as follows:

    As mentioned earlier, we estimate that as of now, the

    total number of private equity funds operational in

    India could be as many as 150, with around two thirds

    of them in the active category. It is important to state

    here that the active category of funds can generally

    be dened as those that have operations on ground in

    the country and are actively sourcing and completing

    investment transactions.

    Based on the available data from primary and

    secondary sources on a ballpark basis, the indicative

    average corpus per fund is typically around USD 350

    million, which is higher than what was the average

    corpus of USD 250 million that is stated in our rst

    report. It is important to note here that there are quite

    a few proprietary funds whose corpus was not dened

    at the outset and could change over the years. Also, the

    indicative gure that was stated would be the typical

    size per fund and not per-principal investor, as there are

    many cases wherein the principals may have invested

    in more than one fund for Indian real estate. Finally,

    the average corpus per fund is just an indicative gure

    and is not an absolute indicator, as there are funds that

    may have a much larger or smaller corpus than the

    average gure stated

    The other main indicator of activity levels of such

    real estate funds is the broad gure of investment that

    is in the pipeline by these funds. This continues to

    be an uphill task as there are various estimates that

    keep getting reported in the media from time to time

    as regards the total FDI in the pipeline for Indian

    real estate. These estimates of FDI in pipeline range

    from anywhere between USD 15 billion and USD 20

    billion to be deployed over the next three years. Given

    the number of operational funds and others that are

    planning to enter the country, it is quite possible that

    the total investment pipeline can eventually be higher

    than the estimates that were published.

    In terms of the categorisation of these funds, there

    are two norms that can be applied. One method is to

    categorise by source of funds, i.e. either proprietary

    or third party and there is a fair mix of both among

    the funds that are currently operational. The second

    way of categorising these funds is by their investment

    strategy, which could be core, core-plus (value-added)

    or opportunistic. From the survey samples, it is evident

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    11/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate 11

    that most of the funds operational as of now fall in the

    opportunistic category.

    It is notable that many domestic real estate funds have

    moved onto raising capital in subsequent offerings,

    with most having committed their initial fund corpus

    either in part or full. Moreover, the subsequent corpus

    being raised by such funds is typically larger than the

    rst round of capital raising.

    This time around, it is interesting to note that many of

    the rst ush of real estate specic funds have moved

    ahead in the transaction cycle, from just sourcing and

    evaluating deals as was the case earlier, to actually

    concluding and implementing transactions, which is

    more evident now.

    Finally, as in our rst report, real estate funds are not

    just restricted to the traditional large metropolitan cities

    when it comes to sourcing investment opportunities.

    Currently, there are established transactions by these

    funds in Tier II cities and clear instances of real

    estate funds that are seeking opportunities and even

    transacting in much smaller Tier III and IV towns such

    as Bhavnagar, Jalandhar and Dehradun.

    It is important to note here that the headline trends that

    are stated are indicative and not absolute in any way,

    especially given the high level of activity and churn that

    is presently being witnessed in the real estate investment

    sector. Moreover, the survey indications that were stated

    are time bound as of Q42007 and may change in the

    future.

    sur Findin

    The findings from the primary survey of real estate

    funds operating in the country that are presented in

    this section is a compilation of individual responsesby the funds that chose to reply to the structured

    survey questionnaire. The survey does not claim to be

    comprehensive or all encompassing and is pegged to the

    time frame in which it was conducted (Q42007). The

    responses by the same token may not remain the same

    over time due to changing macro-market and micro-

    market conditions. The collated responses have been

    presented in the order that the questions were asked,

    moving from general issues to specific ones.

    The survey has covered a wide spectrum of issuesrelated to investments in real estate which is of particular

    significance to real estate funds investing in India.

    View on the future growth potential of the Indian

    economy

    The robust India growth story has triggered positive

    responses of the funds regarding the future growth

    potential of the Indian economy. As was seen in the

    previous survey, this time, the funds are also quite

    upbeat about the overall economic growth in the

    economy. This is inline with the forecasts by the

    government and various agencies.

    GDP < 8%

    (11%)GDP > 10%

    (0%)

    GDP 8 - 10%

    (89%)

    POSITIVE GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

    It is quite apparent from the graph that the majority of

    the funds (89%) that were surveyed foresee GDP growth

    between 8% and 10% per annum, which is even greater

    than the last time response of 86% within this band.

    India is the second-fastest growing major economy in the

    world with a GDP growth rate of 9.6% for FY200607

    and projected growth rate of GDP of 8.7% for FY2007-

    08 , which falls within this band.

    The confidence in the strong fundamentals can be

    judged by the response of the funds, as only 11% of them

    foresee a GDP growth of less than 8%.

    Interestingly, unlike last time when 10% of the fundssurveyed were expecting over 10% GDP growth, not a

    single fund this time anticipates a GDP growth rate of

    more than 10%, showing a pragmatic outlook of funds

    towards the macro-economic growth rate.

    View on the future growth potential of the Indian

    real estate market

    Overall, a positive sentiment about the economy and

    the sectors therein has also led to a continued positive

    outlook of the funds in the Indian real estate market.

    Majority of the funds (64%) that were surveyed currently

    expect the Indian real estate sector to remain stable as

    compared to 58% last time. This shows that stability in

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    12/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate1

    the real estate markets is a widely held view within the

    fund community and would remain so in the next two

    years.

    Over Perform

    24%Remain Stable

    64%

    Under Perform

    12%

    POSITIVE OUTLOOK ABOUT REAL ESTATE MARKET

    Around 24% of the funds surveyed this time consider

    that the real estate sector would over-perform in next

    two years, which is less than 45% of the funds which

    had expected over-performance in the previous survey.

    However, it is important to note that as compared to last

    time when not a single fund anticipated that the real

    estate sector would under-perform, this time around,

    12% of the funds are of the opinion that the real estate

    sector could under perform in the next two years. This

    is much reflective of the cautiousness that is creeping inthe funds view on the back of over supply concerns in

    the future.

    Ranking of the investment attractiveness of various

    cities in India

    Funds were asked to rank the investment attractiveness

    of cities Tier I, II and III and the analysis of the

    findings on investment attractiveness of the categories of

    cities shows quite interesting results this time around.

    In the previous survey, funds were categorically more

    bullish on Tier II cities, followed by Tier I and then Tier

    III cities. A significant change is observed in this survey,

    with higher preference being given to Tier I as against

    Tier II cities. The second preference of the funds is Tier

    II cities and the third position is held by Tier III cities.

    There has been a resurgence of interest in some Tier

    I cities (main metropolitan cities like Mumbai, Delhi

    and Bangalore) due to the continued demand, maturity,

    depth and supporting infrastructure of these well-tested

    markets. In this survey, majority of the funds are in

    favour of the metropolitan cities, whereas in the earlier

    survey, Tier II cities (emerging metros) were ranked

    higher than Tier I cities.

    Ranking of cities in terms of overall investment

    attractiveness

    In the funds rating of cities from the overall investment

    attractiveness standpoint, Mumbai has displaced

    Chennai (which was the most preferred destination in

    the previous survey) and has secured the top position in

    terms of investment attractiveness amongst Tier I cities.

    Mumbai, which is rightly known as the financial capital

    of India, is followed by Chennai, Bangalore, Delhi NCR

    and Hyderabad. Chennai, which topped the list the last

    time, is not far behind at second position as a lot of

    TIeR

    I

    TIe

    RI

    II

    TIeR

    II

    STACKING CITIES BY INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS

    MumbaiChennaiBangaloreDelhi NCRHyderabad

    KolkataPuneAhmedabadChandigarhKochi

    NagpurMysoreNashikCoimbatoreVizagIndoreGoaBhubneshwarLudhianaLucknowJaipurDehradun

    JalandharBhopal

    MULTIPLE EPICENTRE OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITY

    TIER I

    TIER IITIER III

    INDIAN OCEAN

    Arabian Sea Bay of Bengal

    PUNE

    GOA

    CHENNAI

    HYDERABAD

    MUMBAI

    KOLKATA

    BHUBANESHWAR

    DELHI

    r

    CHANDIGARH

    LUDHIANA

    JALANDHAR

    JAIPUR LUCKNOW

    DEHRADUN

    AHMEDABAD

    NASIK

    INDOREBHOPAL

    NAGPUR

    MYSORE

    KOCHI

    COIMBATORE

    VIZAG

    BENGALURU

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    13/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate 1

    activity continues to take place in the city, attracting the

    foreign investors.

    Among Tier II cities, Kolkata has been ranked as the

    highest after witnessing investment interest from real

    estate funds followed by Pune, Ahmedabad, Chandigarh

    and Kochi. In the first survey, Pune was the top choice

    of funds followed by Kolkata, Chandigarh, Ahmedabad

    and Indore.

    Among Tier III cities, Nagpur has retained the top

    position in this survey, with a lot of interest focusing

    on this city. The major factors that contributed to this

    position of Nagpur are its central location and the

    development of the Multimodal International Hub

    Airport at Nagpur (MIHAN). Other locations that have

    emerged in Tier III cities as investment destinations

    include Mysore, Nashik, Coimbatore, Vishakapatnam,

    Indore, Goa and Bhubneshwar.

    Ranking of the most preferred sectors in terms of

    potential investment returns

    The choice of favourite sectors for investment from

    the standpoint of potential returns on investment can

    be a somewhat fleeting point of view as opinions can

    vary with time depending on market twists and turns.However, when posed the question this time, the

    responses that resulted are presented in the graph. This

    highlights the relative ranking of the various real estate

    investment verticals in descending order of priority in

    terms of their anticipated potential return.

    As was the case in the previous survey, land has

    emerged as the most attractive choice for investment

    among all the verticals for the funds. This is followed

    by integrated township, residential and office sectors.Integrated townships and the residential sector are also

    popular among the funds, showing the promise that these

    sectors hold. While most of the funds target the middle-

    income and upper-middle-income brackets in such

    developments, there are also a few funds evaluating the

    mass housing space.

    Contrary to the response last time, the retail sector has

    gone down the ladder and has been deposed by the

    office and residential sectors. Importantly, unlike the

    previous survey, there has been an emergence of many

    new sectors that have come under the focus of funds,

    including SEZs, logistics and warehousing, hospitality

    and IT SEZs.

    Time horizon of investment in the Indian real estate

    market

    When one contrasts the time horizon of investment in

    real estate from the funds standpoint in the previousand present survey, an interesting theme emerges. This

    time around, relatively higher portion of the funds

    surveyed have indicated a short-term to medium-term

    view. About 44% of the funds favoured short term (35

    years) horizon as against 24% in the previous survey.

    Around 46% have indicated medium term (510 years)

    time horizon as against 65% of responses in the previous

    survey. About 10% of the funds that were surveyed

    showed long-term investment horizon preference as

    against 11% in the previous survey, thereby keeping the

    set of long-term fund view almost similar.

    0

    24

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    No.

    ofResponses

    Land

    Integrated

    TownshipsResidential Offices

    HospitalityIT SEZs

    RetailIndustrial

    StandaloneMixed use

    Product

    specificSEZ Warehousing

    & Logistics

    TOP SECTORAL INVESTMENT CHOICES

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    14/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate1

    Ranking of the main criteria for city evaluation prior

    to investment

    The following are the main criteria for city evaluation

    that have emerged from the survey and are presented in

    descending order of priority, i.e. from the most important

    to the least important, as ranked by the funds surveyed.

    This was an open-ended question and the choices of

    cities and relative ranking of the criteria were collated

    from the direct suggestions of respondents.

    Main Criteria for City Evaluation

    Rank Q42007 Survey Q12007 Survey

    1 Good infrastructureStatus of infrastructure andlinkages

    2Presence of economicdrivers

    Presence of regionaleconomic and income-growth drivers

    3 Demand supplyPresence of qualityworkforce

    4Business activity andenvironment

    Proactiveness of the localgovernment

    5Proactive governmentpolicies

    Land and sectoral demand supply scenario

    6 Geographic location Demographic profiles

    7 Presence of qualityworkforce Presence of educational andsocial infrastructure

    8 Regulatory framework Law and order situation

    9 Availability of landStatus of regulatoryframework

    10 IT activityInstances of other FDIflowing in

    11Historical performance ofreal estate markets

    12 FDI flowing in the city

    Notably, the majority of the criter ia highlighted by

    funds for evaluating a city have to do more with broad

    macro-level variables, which are not direct real estate

    parameters, like good infrast ructure, presence of

    economic drivers, quality workforce, business activity

    Long term

    (over 10 years)10%

    Short term(3-5 years)

    44%Medium term

    (5-10 years)

    46%

    TAKING SHORT-TERM AND MID-TERM VIEWand environment, to name a few. However, these factors

    have a considerable impact on real estate investment.

    During the survey, the funds stressed on the need for

    good physical and urban infrastructure in the city or

    alternatively, the capacity and will to provide such

    infrastructure by the government, which would drive

    investment. This is in line with the earlier responses and

    reflects the importance of macro-economic variables for

    investment in a particular city.

    The inclusion of parameters, such as historical

    performance of respective real estate markets, indicates

    the cautious and more objective view of the funds as

    they go up the learning curve in understanding the

    context of an investment deal rather than just focusing

    on the returns of the project.

    Views on whether there are too many funds chasing

    too little quality product

    On the issue of too many funds chasing too little quality

    product, the survey findings in the previous and present

    rounds has been consistent. Majority of the responses

    point to a yes and also more or less in the same

    proportion as in the previous survey. There is no doubt

    that this time around as well, funds have been pragmaticin answering this somewhat tr icky question.

    No 36% Yes 64%

    BEING PRAGMATIC

    Factors that cause distortions in the deal-making

    process

    When requested to rank headline concerns and irritant

    factors in the real estate investment process, almost

    all the funds came up with a somewhat similar bunch

    of concerns as in the previous survey,. These have

    been collated and presented below in descending

    order of priority. Notably, this was an open-ended and

    unprompted question and hence, the responses collated

    were as per the direct opinion of the respondents.

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    15/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate 1

    Ranking the Issues in Investment Process

    No. Q42007 Survey Q12007 Survey

    1Unrealistic valuationexpectations and terms

    Unrealistic valuationexpectations and terms

    2Lack of clarity in the titleof land

    Regulatory hurdles

    3Unreasonable terms bydevelopers

    Lack of clarity in land titles

    4Regulatory hassles Developers credibility and

    track record

    5Execution capability ofdevelopers

    Transparency issues

    6Social and governanceissues

    Danger of project deliveryoverruns

    7 Project financials Change in government policy

    8Developers non

    transparency

    Complex taxation structures

    9 Availability of information Availability of debt financing

    10Availability of debtfinancing

    Infrastructure issues

    11Lack of quality land parcels Limited availability of verifiable

    market information

    12 Legal structure of a deal

    13 Over supply

    POTENTIAL EXPECTED IRR

    Potential IRR expectations from the market

    This survey attempted to raise a new issue which was

    an attempt to understand the funds view in terms of the

    potential IRR returns scenario from the market.

    It is interesting to note that majority of the funds

    surveyed have indicated that the most likely potential

    IRR scenario would remain in the 2025% range

    given the current market conditions and the expected

    dynamics in the immediate future. Despite this, there is

    still a significant number of funds that have indicated

    returns in the range between 25% and 30%, even as the

    responses in the 30%-plus potential IRR return category

    are much less.

    The results from the survey were quite unique, and like

    the previous survey conducted in February 2007, provide

    a deeper insight into the collective opinions and thoughts

    of real estate funds, which are currently an important

    part of the market as are developers, investors, occupiers

    and institutions. Increasingly, it is anticipated that the

    role of such funds would grow not only as investors,

    but also as important instruments of accelerating the

    transformation of Indian real estate markets towards

    much higher levels of maturity and momentum.

    It is important here to acknowledge the vital

    part icipation of all the fund managers who took time out

    to respond to the survey and provide meaningful insights

    into their views. On the back of this, it is also important

    25-30%

    (29%)

    Above 30%

    (6%)

    Less than 20%

    (12%)20-25%

    (53%)

    Less than 20% 20-25% 25-30% Above 30%

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    16/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate1

    to provide caveat here that this primary survey is merely

    indicative and pegged to the time frame that has been

    mentioned. Moreover, its is not absolute in any way as

    the responses to the question raised can change over timeas they are dependent on the changing market conditions

    and economic dynamics as well as prevalent investment

    sentiments at any point in time.

    PeRTINeNT PeRsPeCTIves

    The findings of this study are both interesting and

    revealing. There is a clear indication now that real estate

    funds, whether overseas or domestic, have certainly

    moved forward in the learning curve from just sourcing

    opportunities to actually completing deals and are wellon the way to managing the investment process. The

    views of the funds that were expressed in the survey at

    this time as well as the evident dynamics clearly point

    to this fact. The main themes that are likely to prevail in

    the future as regards investment in the Indian real estate

    would include more money, more deals, more supply

    and hopefully more maturity. Some of these themes are

    summarised below for a better understanding of the

    pertinent perspectives of this important sector.

    Struggle for Quality and Returns

    There are two distinct developments in the supply side

    over the past few months. First, new funds are setting up

    shops in India. Second, existing funds are raising more

    money. Resultmore money.

    On the demand side, there is now a greater requirement

    of equity by developers for financing various projects,

    not just in Tier I or II cities but also in Tier III towns.

    The heightened willingness on both sides only points to

    the fact that the future could witness higher number of

    deals.

    While deal f lows have already started r ising, analysts

    in fund houses are burning midnight oil to weed out the

    good ones from the not so good ones. Hence, the word

    risk analysis has assumed even greater proportions

    as far as funds are concerned. Eventually, the struggle

    for the twin objectives of quality and returns is likely

    to gain steam as fund houses and investors weed out

    investment-grade assets from the total stock, thereby

    creating a class of assets that would move in separate

    strata from the rest of the market.

    Over Supply A Recurrent Theme

    The enthusiasm of almost every stakeholder in the real

    estate sector worldwide almost always manifests itself

    physically in the way of a possible over supply. This

    is also one of the recurring risks and worries for any

    investor in real estate markets. There are numerous news

    articles and media coverage which have been noticed

    in last few months, highlighting this issue either in a

    part icular asset class or in a particular city or micro-

    market. In its own way, fund houses, developers and

    investors, from time to time, take bearings of the supply

    situation and correct their course accordingly. Hopefully,

    greater transparency and the increasing maturity of

    markets will allow the funds and developers to avoidover building in sectors and markets that are already

    supply dominated.

    Valuations How much is too much?

    One established fact is that land, real estate built product

    and listed Indian real estate companies have witnessed

    a significant increase in valuations over the last few

    years. Of these, the concern from funds and developers

    as regards runaway land valuations is quite justified.

    This not only results in a precarious risk and returns the

    equation for the players but also endangers the very basis

    for sustainable long-term growth in the sector.

    The solution to this may just lie in the release of land

    parcels for valid development both in prime inner-

    city areas as well as in suburban areas, which may be

    locked today into lower uses or regulatory impediments.

    But that is only one part of the story. The fact that

    the development process itself can achieve far more

    efficiency is an issue that will increasingly assume

    greater importance, both from the investors standpoint

    as well as the developers standpoint. In fact, end-

    users would only stand to benefit from an improved

    and more efficient development process, which in turn

    may just allow for appropriate course adjustments in

    the valuations itself. But until the time that more land

    is released or the process is made more streamlined,

    valuations will continue to be dictated by market forces

    or impediments within market dynamics.

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    17/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate 1

    With the rising numbers of deals, there is a concern

    of too much of investment flowing into the market orproduct and hence, typically higher risks. The following

    are few important risks that an investor is exposed to at

    any time and an accurate analysis of these could define

    the success of the investment:

    1. Market Risk: Market risk covers macro-market

    and micro-market risks in which the project is being

    developed. The factors evaluating risk/growth mainly

    involve infrastructure development, migration and

    local economic development for the macro-market. Onmicro-market level, the major factors are accessibility,

    internal infrastructure development and price points,

    which are typical parameters. To a great extent, this

    is a systematic risk that comes with any real estate

    investment.

    2. Product Risk: Product risk covers product categories

    wherein the investor takes exposure. This risk is a mix

    of systematic and unsystematic risks, covering micro-

    market risks and product feasibility on the back of

    demandsupply status, absorption and pricing.

    3. Developer Risk: This is the only pure unsystematic

    risk in the matrix. However, this can be a boon or abane as well, depending upon the product and the

    micro-market. Take for instance, a small developer

    with very little experience of developing a huge project

    can easily deliver a small project very fast and get the

    first-mover advantage. The small developer can serve

    as a better partner at times compared to a large-format

    development in the same micro-market, which is being

    done with an established player. The decision making

    pertains to settling on what is the right product in the

    said micro-market, whether a small format with a first-

    mover advantage, or a large format.

    4. Delivery Risk: It is not only important to identify and

    deploy funds into a promising investment opportunity.

    It is equally important to see the end of the delivery

    process. However, there is a perceptible shortage in

    the talent pool that is required to ensure the delivery of

    such projects. Investment decisions should definitely

    account for this important risk aspect, which is notoften outlined as much.

    Understanding Risks

    lOOKINg aheaDGlobally, due to the sub-prime crisis, highly leveraged

    deals are a thing of the past and raising debt has

    become diff icult. Faced with resultant subdued market

    sentiments, investors are favoring a wait and watch

    approach. Though analysts suggest that cross border

    investor interest still remains, the bid/ask spread gap has

    diverged. The credit crunch developed so quickly that

    there has not been sufficient time for buyers capacity

    and sellers expectations to readjust to converge into

    transactions.

    In this scenario, the global real estate equity capital that

    is still available for seeking cross border opportunities

    in general and in specific to the Asia Pacific region,

    is expectedly much more conservative and seeking

    fundamentally sound economies and projects. In a

    nut shell, this could well be the new theme for global

    investors for some time to come and real estate

    investment could well concentrate as much on financial

    engineering as well as on fundamentals. The silver

    lining to this, is that, even now when compared to other

    investment categories (stocks, bonds, etc.), real estate

    remains a robust investment vehicle due to its long term

    inherent stability character coupled with the possibility

    of risk rationalisation by diversifying investment among

    many sub asset classes and geographies.

    India has been relatively insulated from the sub - prime

    crisis till now, owing to strong domestic growth and

    sound fundamentals. The Indian real estate market as a

    result has till now been able to post impressive growthrates and hence there is no doubt that investments in

    the Indian real estate market has only accelerated from

    the point when we first started tracking it in 1Q07.

    Looking forward, on one hand while expansion of the

    macro economy is anticipated, on the other hand, the

    progression in the growth of Indian real estate and the

    improvements in the maturity of investors, developers

    and all the other stakeholders in Indian real estate

    is inevitable. Driven by this process of growth, the

    Indian real estate market is well on the way to expand

    not only in terms of geographies, but also in termsof diversification within sub asset classes, which is

    anticipated to continue attracting attention from global

    and domestic investors in future.

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    18/20

    Accelerated Transformation Investments in Indian Real Estate1

    For more information on India Retail and how Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj can assist companies making

    high quality real estate decisions in India, please contact:

    Shobhit Agarwal

    Joint Managing Director - Capital Markets

    Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (Mumbai)

    tel +91 22 2482 8400

    [email protected]

    Mridul Upreti

    Joint Managing Director- Capital Markets

    Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (Gurgaon)

    tel +91 124 460 5000

    [email protected]

    Anuj Puri

    Chairman & Country Head

    Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (Mumbai)

    tel +91 22 2482 8400

    [email protected]

    Vincent Lottefier

    Chief Executive Officer

    Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (Gurgaon)

    tel +91 124 460 5000

    [email protected]

    Compiled by Capital Markets, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj

    Acknowledgements:

    Shweta Kakkar (Knowledge Centre)

    Sumeet Mehta (Capital Markets)

    Adishesh Mitra (Capital Markets)

    Deepak Sankhye (Capital Markets)

    Printed for internal use by Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj Property Consultants Pvt Ltd

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    19/20

    abOUT JONes laNg lasalle

    Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a professional

    services firm specializing in real estate. The firm offers

    integrated services delivered by expert teams worldwide

    to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying

    or investing in real estate. With 2007 global revenue of

    USD 2.7 billion, Jones Lang LaSalle has approximately

    170 offices worldwide and operates in more than 700

    cities in 60 countries. The firm is an industry leader in

    property and corporate facility management services,

    with a global portfolio of approximately 1.2 billion

    square feet. LaSalle Investment Management, the

    companys investment management business, is one

    of the worlds largest and most diverse in real estatewith approximately USD 49.7 billion of assets under

    management. For further information, please visit our

    website, www.joneslanglasalle.com

    Jones Lang LaSalle has over 50 years of experience in

    Asia Pacific, with over 16,000 employees operating in

    more than 70 offices in 13 countries across the region.

    abOUT JONes laNg lasalle meghRaJJones Lang LaSalle Meghraj, the Indian operations of

    Jones Lang LaSalle, is the premiere and largest real

    estate professional services firm in India. With an

    extensive geographic footprint across ten cities (Delhi,

    Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad,

    Kolkata, Kochi, Chandigarh and Coimbatore) and a

    staff strength of over 3300, the firm provides investors,

    developers, local corporates and multinational

    companies with a comprehensive range of services

    including research, consultancy, transactions, project and

    development services, integrated facility management,

    property management, capital markets, residential, hotels

    and retail advisory. For further information, please visit

    www.jllm.co.in

  • 7/28/2019 Accelerated Transformation

    20/20

    COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE MEGHRAJ 2007. All rights reserved.

    JONES LANG LASALLE OFFICES

    SINGAPORE

    9 Rafes Place, #39-00, Republic PlazaSingapore 048619Tel +65 6220 3888Fax +65 6438 3360

    www.joneslanglasalle.com.sg

    CHICAGO

    200 East Randolph DriveChicago, IL 60601Tel +1 312 782 5800Fax +1 312 782 4339

    www.am.joneslanglasalle.com

    LONDON

    22 Hanover SquareLondon W1A 2BNTel +44 20 7493 6040Fax +44 20 7408 0220

    www.joneslanglasalle.co.uk

    JONES LANG LASALLE MEGHRAJ - INDIA

    BANGALORE

    tel +91 80 4118 2900tel +91 80 4112 1271

    CHENNAI

    tel +91 44 4299 3000

    CHANDIGARH

    tel +91 172 3047 651

    COCHIN

    tel +91 484 3018 652

    COIMBATORE

    tel +91 422 2544 433

    GURGAON

    tel +91 124 460 5000tel +91 124 408 3337

    HYDERABAD

    tel +91 40 4040 9100

    KOLKATA

    tel +91 33 2227 3293

    MUMBAI

    tel +91 22 6658 1000tel +91 22 2482 8400tel +91 22 2497 2652

    NEW DELHI

    tel +91 11 2331 7070

    PUNE

    tel +91 20 4019 6100