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ACADEMY OF CANADIAN ENGINEERING ENERGY SUPERPOWER BOOK

Chapter 5: Hydroelectricity

5.1 Current State of Hydroelectricity 5.1.1 History and Context 5.1.2 Developed and Still Available Hydroelectric Potential 5.1.3 Differences Between Real and Theoretical Potential 5.1.4 Potential Immediate Projects Under Review 5.1.5 Hydropower: Complementary Industries 5.1.6 Dawn of a New Gold Rush 5.2 Hydropower: Environment and Society 5.2.1 Environment and Society 5.2.2 Versatility of the Projects 5.2.3 Climate Change 5.2.4 Exporting Water? 5.2.5 Canada-wide Context 5.3 Potential Major Projects 5.3.1 Inventory of the Potential Projects (Reminder) 5.3.2. Canada-wide Essential Prerequisite 5.3.3 Major Potential Hydroelectricity Projects Lower Churchill Tidal Energy St. Lawrence Basin and “Water from the North” scheme James Bay Western Canada 5.4 Recommendations 5.4.1A Canada-wide Transmission Network 5.4.2 Alberta: the necessity of a provincial water and power authority 5.4.3 Inventory of the hydroelectricity potential of Canada 5.5. References

 

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ACADEMY OF CANADIAN ENGINEERING

ENERGY SUPERPOWER BOOK Chapter 5: Hydroelectricity

5.1 Current State of Hydroelectricity 5.1.1 History and Context 5.1.2 Developed and Still Available Hydroelectric Potential 5.1.3 Differences Between Real and Theoretical Potential 5.1.4 Potential Immediate Projects Under Review 5.1.5 Hydropower: Complementary Industries 5.1.6 Dawn of a New Gold Rush 5.1.1 Current State of Hydroelectricity

In this land of lakes and rivers that is Canada, the development of the hydropower potential began quickly. Indeed, from the commissioning of the first plant, Chute Chaudière, in Ottawa in 1881, others would follow at a more and more frantic pace, including the Chutes Montmorency in 1885. In 1892, a plant went into operation on the Lachine Canal in Montreal, soon followed by the Bow River plant in Calgary, in 1893. Soon after came the Lachine Rapids de Lachine in September 1897 and the Chambly plant in 1899. Ontario, Newfoundland and British Columbia, all three completed their first hydroelectric plants in 1898, when Sir Adam Beck was already fascinated by the possibilities offered by the Niagara Falls.

Already in 1900, the first major hydroelectric complex went into production in Shawinigan, a complex whose progressive development would continue nonstop until the early forties, with a cascade of nine major dams such as Grand'Mère, La Tuque, Rapide Blanc, La Trenche Beaumont and Gouin.

And, Ontario is no exception. Is it necessary to point out that the twenties began precisely with the commissioning of the Sir Adam Beck – 1 Plant, in Niagara Falls, and undisputed sign of things to come. Indeed, the twenties were not being used only to develop hydroelectricity site by site but by an approach studying entire complexes, namely on the Rivière des Outaouais, in northern Ontario and in Quebec, on the Péribonka, Saguenay and Gatineau rivers. And what about the fact that most of these projects, many of which are now approaching or have reached a century of operation, including the Shawinigan – 2 dating from the fall of 1911, were already so impressive in scope, even by today standards ?

 

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The Second World War, curiously, does nothing to moderate the development of hydropower; people even manage to build a power plant the size of Shipshaw in eighteen months! A period of great prosperity immediately follows the Second World War with the decade of the fifties and the arrival of the "baby boomers".

It soon became indispensable that all the provinces have an organization capable of tackling even larger projects. Only Alberta will be the exception. The fifties saw the construction of such infrastructures as the Bersimis Complex in Quebec, soon followed by the Manicouagan and Outardes complexes, which will continue until the late eighties. The James Bay Complex will follow immediately from the summer of 1972. Newfoundland is no exception with the construction of the Churchill Complex while Manitoba successfully develops the Nelson River (Kettle Sites, Limestone, Long Spruce). In British Columbia, the impressive complexes of the Columbia River (12 sites including Revelstoke and Mica dams) and Peace River (Bennett and Peace Canyon dams) gives a deep orientation to the economic future of the province. Meanwhile, Ontario, short on rivers suitable for hydropower development, must turn to nuclear power. In 1968, New Brunswick commissioned the Mataquac project, its only major site.

The nineties seem to mark the end or, at least, a severe slowing down in hydroelectric development. In Quebec, they simply focus on completing the last remaining sites of the large complexes, including the development of the Eastmain project and the Rupert diversion on La Grande complex, the Toulnustouc plant on the Manicouagan, or the last site of the Péribonka river. However, work is started on the lower North Shore with the development of the Ste-Marguerite River.

Does the end of this century of hydropower that was the twentieth century really signal the end of the development of the industry or is it rather a time of reflection for the next step? If the growing environmental concern that we have seen since the seventies has strongly questioned hydropower, we must admit that the industry has responded wisely by working on correcting its excesses and developing its benefits. The scope of the studies and the environmental knowledge developed by the hydropower industry over the last thirty years is of a magnitude that few industries can claim.

Also, it was good that we learned how to use energy more efficiently. Moreover, it seems that the nuclear industry has not fulfilled its promises as these supposedly so green quick fixes that wind and solar power seemed to be did not turn out to be so green after all and especially did not produce large enough energy.

Canada still has an enormous potential that we must develop as hydroelectric power remains by far the cleanest source of energy, is the most sustainable and most renewable.

 

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We will also see that to achieve this, Canadians need to think on a continental, Canada-wide level, far beyond any provincial vision, which until recently seemed sufficient.

5.1.2 Developed and Still Available Hydroelectric Power Potential

According to the Canadian Hydropower Association, the hydroelectric potential theoretically available in Canada in 2007 is estimated at approximately 236,610 MW, namely:

In Service Available Yukon 70 MW 17,664 MW Northwest Territories 25 11,524 Nunavut 0 4,307 33,495 MW British Columbia 12,609 MW 33,137 MW Alberta 909 11,775 Saskatchewan 853 3,955 Manitoba 5,029 8,785 57,652 MW Ontario 8,350 MW 10,270 MW Quebec 37,459 44,100 New Brunswick 923 614 Nova Scotia 404 8,499 (tidal) Prince Edward Island 0 3 Newfoundland-Labrador 6,796 8,540 73,437 MW 163,173 MW Total 236,610 MW Reference: Statistics Canada, 2007 Study on the hydroelectric potential of Canada, according to the Canadian Hydropower Association, 2007

Hydroelectric potential already developed

The 2007 table from the Canadian Hydropower Association presented above already stated the operation of a number of power stations with a capacity of 73,437 MW, which is changing day by day. Now, at the end of the year 2011, it would be more realistic to consider that the already developed hydropower potential is of some 76, 000 MW.

Moreover, the 2007 data are already outdated given the multiple ongoing repairs underway. For the sole province of Quebec, the addition of new power plants at Eastmain , of the Upper St. Maurice two powerhouses and of Péribonka already adds more than 1,500 MW.

 

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(See at the end of the chapter an overview of major works in service in Canada as of early 2011).

Indeed, it should be noted that these data are changing almost daily while these infrastructures are being repaired or built. Therefore, after thirty years of operation, it is generally required to conduct a complete renovation of the turbine-alternator units; this is an opportunity to increase the efficiency of the machines according to the evolution of technical knowledge as well as to put additional output (surequipement) on the turbines. The installed capacity of a plant can sometimes be increased by approximately 10%, at each updating, which is very profitable.

We can appreciate the importance of this resource by considering that the operation of a thermal power plant, using fuel oil, bunker or other, would require, for each MW of power generated, the annual consumption of 2,500 tons of fuel and emit some 10,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases. Thus, the Canadian hydropower production prevents the annual burning of some 125 million tons of fuel and the emission of some 500 million tonnes of greenhouse gases. In 2010, the emission of greenhouse gases in Canada was approximately 725 million tonnes, which stresses the importance of hydropower for the environment.

Economically speaking, the same hydroelectric production avoids the purchase of these 125 million tons of fuel, or some 912 million barrels (2.5 million barrels per day) of oil. Assuming a cost of $125 per barrel and a transportation cost of $50 per tonne, the annual hydroelectric production of Canada would have a replacement value, in fuel only, of over $120 billion and this for an energy that is neither clean, nor renewable nor sustainable! Based on this approach, hydroelectricity remains one of the most profitable and most desirable energy sources.

Note: We assume here that a ton of oil has 7.3 barrels, though this factor may vary up to 9 barrels in some cases.

5.1.3 Differences Between Real and Theoretical Potential

The purpose of this study is not to further detail the estimate of the theoretically estimated potential. However, it is necessary to take into account the various aspects that influence this estimate of this energy potential till available. From the estimated available potential, first must be removed the sites that may prove unacceptable for environmental reasons; for example to save wetlands that are particularly rich from a biological standpoint or to protect wildlife and/or populated habitats.

This potential will also be revised downward to exclude any sites that may be unprofitable because of particular technical constraints. This may include both geological conditions in the foundation as well as the availability of backfill.

 

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The hydrological and hydraulic conditions, particularly with regards to winter flow conditions, such as excessive generation of frazil ice by rapids located in the immediate headbay, are crucial. Flow conditions also depend heavily on regional physical characteristics. Thus, the vast marshes and wetlands of northern Ontario would explain why the river flows are up to four times lower than they are in Quebec, in proportion to the size of the watershed, as if the waters were stagnant. Finally, the possibility of building reservoirs to regulate flows and / or move the energy production in time, will decide as to the interest of developing some rivers.

The lack of access to the hydroelectric sites and its distance from the transmission network will decide on the profitability of the projects and/or when they will be executed in the future. The acceptability of the project remains to be seen for the affected populations and all the political and economic interests at stake must also be considered. Thus, in the ongoing negotiations for the division of the Arctic continent between states, to "install" a plant as soon as possible becomes a way to "mark our territory".

The only way to really know the true hydropower potential still available is to conduct at least the first conceptual design study of the sites that seem the most interesting, river by river, site by site. Each of the provincial hydro companies should have a team of professionals capable of performing these initial site surveys to develop a kind of catalog of projects for the purposes of the strategic management of the company. That is how for decades, Hydro-Québec has gradually formed a "catalog of hundreds of projects," the most promising moving constantly to more advanced stages of engineering.

Again, the constantly changing energy costs, construction costs, technology, distribution system and road network make these studies somehow “perishable”, to the point of having to update them regularly, at least for the most promising sites. Thus, the increased cost of labor and the efficiency of earth-moving equipment during the 1960s and 1970s steered engineering toward embankment dams rather than concrete dams.

As with other energy systems, hydroelectricity requires some form of prospecting, an exploration made inviting by the fact that we know at the onset that the energy source is present. The exercise aims to define profitability. It is the same for a hydroelectric company as it is for an oil company: no exploration, no future!

5.1.4 Potential of Immediate Projects Under Study

A brief inventory of the most studied hydroelectric projects to date indicates a very impressive hydroelectric potential of a confirmed power in the range of 28,000 to 32,000 MW and this, in all the provinces that would eventually be served by the future Canada-wide transmission network presented in Chapter 11, which stops at the moment and for the purposes of the study in Alberta. Such power is somewhat equivalent to the

 

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production of electricity from the current thermal power of about 29,700 MW, which should be replaced to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in the order of 175 million tons annually, more than 23% of Canadian emissions that were officially of 734 million tonnes in 2010. This estimate is based, of course, on the factor of 10 000 tonnes of greenhouse gases emitted per MW produced on an annual basis then corrected for a factor of 66% of production time.

A brief statement of the potential projects being studied or pending allows us to appreciate the immediately available potential.

Manitoba Potential Projects (4,915 MW) Burntwood River, 3 sites 680 MW Nelson River 6 sites 3,990 MW Upper Churchill 2 sites 245 MW Lower Churchill (to be studied)

Quebec Potential Projects (approximately 19,000 MW) Lower North Shore 4,000 MW (Romaine, Petit-Mécatina and others) Secondary Potential 5,000 MW (40 to 50 plants of 50 to 100 MW) James Bay 5,000 MW (Great Whale and secondary potential) Nottaway Broadback 5,200 MW (excluding the Rupert which is diverted) St. Lawrence 1,000 MW (Montreal, Beauharnois, others)

Newfoundland (Labrador) (5,000 MW) Lower Churchill 5,000 MW (Gull Island, Muskrat Falls, secondary sites)

Nova Scotia (6,700 MW) Tidal, potential, (40% of FU?) Comberland Basin 1,400 MW Cobequid Bay 5,300 MW

In addition, by eventually reaching the Athabasca River region, the network would be in the range of several major rivers in the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, at a distance of about 300 to 500 km from these significant rivers that flow to the north and/or towards the Hudson Bay, with a theoretical potential of some 20,000 MW. This area should be studied immediately. However, these projects suffer because they are located in jurisdictions where there is no such energy needs and where some local authorities have very few resources to deal with such studies.

The North West government, lately, made a brief study of the MacKenzie River in its territory, just sufficient to learn that a power of about 11 000 MW could be installed on just two sites (Wigley and Fort Simpson). However, to go farther in such a study you have to consider all the drainage basin involved, in this case as far as the south of Alberta

 

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and Saskatchewan to answer such question like the volume of the floods and the hydraulic reserve required to meet the pattern of management. (May we have a little dream for a few seconds, about the possibility to exploit the oilsands, so near, without having to burn a barrel to extract the three others, all that without polluting emissions ?)

Analysis of the provincial parks of production equipment by sector makes it possible to highlight the large proportion of energy produced from heat, gas, coal or oil, in the order of 28% or 30,000 MW. It therefore seems quite justified to proceed as soon as possible to the replacement of this thermal energy production by this clean and sustainable hydropower. In addition, further study of these facilities would show that more than half have been operating for over thirty years, that they are often inefficient, polluting and, at the end of their useful life.

Production Equipment (end of 2010) Province Thermal Total Newfoundland Labrador 856 MW 2,089 MW (excluding Churchill) Nova Scotia 1,772 2,368 New Brunswick 2,769* 4,533 Quebec 1,377* 42,629 (including Churchill Falls) Ontario 6,327* 19,000 approximately Manitoba 458 5,475 Saskatchewan 2,484 3,509 Alberta 12,626 13,535 (excluded from the study) British Columbia 1,043 12,000 approximately 29,712 MW 105,000 MW approximately 28.3 % * Excluding nuclear

This approach assumes that by the implementation of the Canada-wide network, the growth will have justified the implementation of the specified hydropower projects, which is a very conservative approach. On the other hand, the latest and most efficient thermal plants would be retained to meet the needs at periods of peak demand and / or to ensure the long-term expansion of the provincial networks.

5.1.5 Hydropower: Complementary technologies

This chapter would not be complete without mentioning some of the technologies being developed. These hydroelectric "sub-industries" include marine turbines, pumping stations, tidal plants and plants using "wave energy" (houlomotrices ?).

Marine turbines (hydroliennes) power plants are built around large turbines, submerged in ocean currents or streams. There have been ongoing trials for over four decades. An

 

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advanced development program is underway in the Montreal area where the 250 kW prototype set up by the firm RSW in the early summer 2010 costs $ 20 million 80 millions/MW ?). The interest lies in the fact there is no civil works, not even a dam. There is also some study about a project of some ten of these turbine that would be submerged in the St-Clair River, downstream of the city of Sarnia.

Pumping stations are arranged similarly to classic hydropower plants. They differ because the forebay, with no natural water supply incomings, is filled using the generating units as pumps, outside of peak periods. These plants are only used to move some power outside of peak periods, with some loss of energy, about 10 %. The study of each project must compare the cost of this peak energy to that of other types of plants such as gas turbines.

There needs to be a very important network to justify the creation of such equipment. In the event of a Canada-wide network, such a project could prove to be interesting. The site most likely for such a project would be Paugan, located about fifty miles north of Ottawa. The preliminary study was carried out by Hydro-Québec in the late seventies. A power of 4,000 MW could be installed in the very center of the network, just located between Ontario and Quebec provinces.

The tidal power plants use the rising tide to fill their tank or forebay. The “de la Rance” plant in France has been the prototype since the early seventies, using tidal currents in both directions by means of a bulb type generating unit such as that used for low heads. The situation and the stakes are much higher in Canada where the Bay of Fundy, between Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, would make use of the highest tides in the world, with a height of 19.26 meters (63 feet), for an installed capacity of over 5,300 MW. Studies on the project have spanned over three decades with a first project of 20 MW successfully implemented in Annapolis.

Moreover, the tide of Ungava Bay is the second highest in the world with a maximum height of 16.3 meters or 53 feet. In the important “Northern Plan” put forward by the Government of Quebec since 2010, some of the most important iron mines in the world are located just a few hundred miles from the Ungava Bay, which may well trigger the development.

Finally, the wave power plant is designed to recover wave energy. The technology is in its infancy. There are prototypes that make it possible for the waves to fill a tank whose outlet is equipped with a turbine. Another alternative is to use vertical displacement of floats. A third option derives its energy from the hydraulic mechanism operated by the movement between long floating elements. To date, there are no marketable applications in sight.

 

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5.1.6 Dawn of a New White Gold Rush ?

Compared with oil which is called "black gold", the hydroelectric potential is often called "white gold". Given the potential estimated in section 5.1.4, given the environmental concerns related to greenhouse gases, given the unfulfilled promises of the nuclear and wind industry, it is quite possible that all of Canada is at the dawn of a new "rush" for this white gold.

The significant progress made between 1990-2010 in economics and energy efficiency have helped in some way to slow the pace of development but the power needs of the society can only manifest itself again. Know-how acquired in the fields of environment protection and transportation network development should make it possible to overcome these barriers and open new areas of Canada with the operation of hydropower, as was done long time ago with Niagara Falls, Mauricie and James Bay.

All in all, one cannot rely much on other energy resources that are as abundant, clean, renewable and sustainable. The available theoretical potential is estimated at 163,000 MW, a development phases of the next two or three decades covering some 40 to 50,000 MW seems quite realistic, which would already be equivalent to an endless daily production of 2.5 million barrels of oil!

 

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5.2 Hydropower: Environment and Society 5.2.1 Environment and Society 5.2.2 Versatility of the Projects 5.2.3 Climate Changes 5.2.4 Exporting Water? 5.2.5 Canada-wide Context 5.2.1 Environment and Society

During the seventies, public opinion gradually mobilized, rightly so, to protect the environment, objecting more systematically against human intervention of any kind, fearing in particular that we could ignore some still undetermined effects. The completion of the hydroelectric developments, which were often important development, were quick to attract more attention.

It is in this context that the La Grande complex was built, a project the size of a country, or 350,000 square kilometers. To such a scale, about environment, everything was practically invented. The scope of the environmental impact assessments made it, for three decades, the worldwide research laboratory of choice. The final environmental report, "Summary of the environmental knowledge in the North from 1970 to 2000" was a world class turning point in environmental knowledge.

This report is also a manual on development or protection measures to be implemented. Unfortunately, it spends too little time on the fact that a large number of the studies were conducted on issues that in fact never materialized in reality; they were simply apprehensions. From then on, what is remembered is that hydroelectricity can be done while respecting the environment and the local communities involved.

In fact, at least for the integration of environmental knowledge in the development of hydroelectricity, with respect to the Canadian context, there are now "catalogs or checklists" of interventions, development measures, audits, corrective works, analysis, procedures and safeguards put in place.

Approval Process and Consultation

The approval process for major projects, both at the federal and provincial level, have the advantage, from now on, of being well established. First a list of specific concerns to be studied is established. Moreover, the negotiation process with local communities can now rely too on established practices. The model agreements negotiated, namely in Quebec,

 

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can be used as references, especially with regard to recognition of the rights of these communities and the very generous conventions that are applied.

Therefore, it is now possible to make all of these steps simultaneously with the studies, which would significantly reduce delays in project implementation.

5.2.2 Versatility of the Projects

Region Infrastructures

Hydroelectric projects overlap on many other complementary aspects, not only to power generation. Hydroelectric projects allows, namely, to create a road network and to open entire new regions. They can also open these regions to other activities such as logging or mining. This type of project gives an area new transportation infrastructure, including airport and seaport. Finally, the infrastructure on the construction site, such as family villages with schools, clinics, fire and safety services, can be designed at the outset so as to remain permanent. The exploitation of these projects then allows sustainable employment for the long term.

Reservoirs and Natural Environments

Obviously, the implementation of a major project almost always involves the creation of a reservoir. This reservoir requires the redevelopment of the natural environment but not at all its destruction. Initially, this reservoir will be designed based on an enhancement of the environment, possibly with interventions such as the development of spawning grounds and wetlands, outdoor amenities such as beaches, campgrounds, boat launching , points of obsevation, etc.. Recovery of wood prior to watering will be an important and often very expensive measure that could delay the implementation of the project.

Yet, long before these measures were methodically applied, reservoirs and other hydroelectric developments were successfully completed. The Gouin, Baskatong, Kipawa and Lac Taureau reservoirs in Quebec are all among the busiest fishing grounds in the province, if not in Canada. Each of these reservoirs is now a source of livelihood for dozens of outfitting operations. The reach immediately downstream of the Carillon plant, near Montreal is also one of the busiest fishing sites and sustains several outfitters, right there, on the outskirts of Montreal. It must be said that the largest Hydro-Ontario plant uses the potential of the Niagara Falls, which does not prevent this site from being one of the most important tourist sites in Canada.

Flood Control

 

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The construction of a reservoir will make it possible to set aside the surplus floods of the spring and fall, which will often prevent significant damage throughout the basin of the river. In Canada, namely in Quebec, the volume of water from the spring flood can often account for 50% of annual inputs of the river, making it possible to accumulate a large reserve without adversely altering the flow conditions of the river for the next ten months. In addition, such a reserve allows in times of need to ensure a minimum flow to provide drinking water or avoid catastrophic periods of low water for the environment.

Also, the large proportion of flood waters will often make it possible to derive a substantial portion of water to another basin without significant impact on the river environment. Exploiting the potential of two or more rivers on only one reduces the impact on the environment.

In some cases, the operation of the reservoirs will also ensure minimum navigation conditions, which has become indispensable in particular for the operation of the St. Lawrence Seaway.

5.2.3 Climate Change

It seems that each of Canada's watersheds, and of the world, begins to suffer in its own way the effects of climate change. More and more, these changes will affect how the hydroelectric structures in place can be used and may, sometimes, as shown here, change the functions of these structures, especially to mitigate or control greater flood or drought periods. This will likely be the same with the need to manage the water supply of the populations in some regions, in the Great Lakes and even in Western Canada, where the melting of glaciers suggests a significant reduction of water inputs in the near future.

In a case particularly important for Canada, the experts predict a gradual drying of the Great Lakes region by some 20 to 30%, which corresponds to a decrease in flow rates of around 1,000 to 1,500 cubic meters per second in front of the City of Sarnia, outlet of Lake Huron. Already, the level of lakes Michigan and Huron are lower by about two feet or 60 centimeters, which, considering the area of 114,000 square kilometers of these two lakes, is a water volume of about 68.4 cubic km, equivalent to almost six months of flow for the St. Clair River. This reduction in flows will obviously affect the productivity of the power plants of the St. Lawrence river at Niagara, Cornwall and Beauharnois.

Conversely, the water that evaporates from the Great Lakes due to climate change would fall on Quebec, adding some 15 % to the flow of the Outaouais River (300 MCS). The technical description of the two complexes that may eventually be built to compensate and / or take advantage of this situation can be found in 5.3.3.

 

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The first aims to complete the development of the St. Lawrence basin with four or five new control infrastructures to have about ten successive reservoirs where the management of water levels would be no longer dependent on the released flows. Anyway, the volume of water required for these releases will be less and less available. To the already controlled basins of Lake Superior, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Lake St. François, new control dams would be added in Sarnia to control lakes Michigan and Huron, at the Lachine Rapids to control the Lake St. Louis. Two last more dams would have to be added in Sorel and Portneuf to control the downstream part of the St. Lawrence River, in a section of about 300 km from Montreal to Quebec. Altogether it would costs about $ 5 billion, a sum largely justified by the environmental safety taken for the protection of 18,000 km of shoreline and at least 1 000 square kilometers of important wetlands.

The second project, "Water from the North", involves diverting towards the St. Lawrence River an average flow of 800 cubic meters per second by intercepting two major rivers at Matagami. These waters are pumped from 53 meters along the Bell River, where they are then used all along the Outaouais River, in 13 existing power plants, for a net energy gain of 14.6 TWh and a peak power of 2,950 MW, to the limits of the Province of Ontario. At a cost of $ 14 billion in 2010, we must subtract around 60 % of this cost for upgrading the required infrastructures in all case. While protecting the watershed of the James Bay from flash floods, the project supplies the St. Lawrence basin to prevent the waters from becoming too stagnant due to the reduction of inputs.

Similar studies should already be considered in regard to the long-term challenge in Western Canada in front of the melting of glaciers.

Freshwater and Sea Levels

Now, as a complementary function, the operation of hydroelectric facilities may have to increasingly take into account the water needs of the population, especially regarding the Great Lakes region. The principles of water management that would become applicable in articulating the St. Lawrence basin into ten successive reservoirs may need to be applied elsewhere where we anticipate a drying effect due to climate change, especially in the plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

In Egypt, the work underway aims to create a second valley to the Nile and to divert a significant portion of the contributions to supply freshwater to a canal along the coast of Gaza. In China, a diversion system of 800 km in length is to feed a dry region. In Russia, they are considering the possibility of diverting the basin upstream of some rivers leading to the Arctic Ocean water toward the almost dry Aral sea. Many other examples also show how freshwater is precious.

 

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It could also be true for some rivers of the northern Prairies that could potentially be diverted to the southern plains with profit.

Could it be that the best way not to run out of freshwater is to take advantage of it rather than let it go into the sea, especially now when there are concerns regarding the enhancement of the oceans?

5.2.4 Exporting Water?

This question comes up periodically. In fact, with the anticipated effects of drying-up due to climate change, both in the Great Lakes and the Prairies, the answer seems to be not to export. However, by itself, Quebec discharges 40,000 cubic meters of water per second into the sea, enough to supply all of humanity.

Also, how can we and, more importantly, how dare we prohibit the export of water faced with a population in need, for example, in the Great Lakes? Since "water is life," as environmentalists are constantly repeating, what right do we have to refuse to share with others? How can we explain their steadfast opposition to exporting water?

The answer lies in the projects presented in Section 5.3. Yet another mission for the hydropower industry. The reconfiguration of the St. Lawrence River into ten consecutive basins, making the management of flows independent of the management of the water levels alone can solve these problems of drinking water availability for the Great Lakes area..

5.2.5 Canada-wide Context

Because of shared jurisdictions between the governments of Canada and the provinces, an overview sometimes seems to be missing in the long-term planning of the energy market in Canada. Currently, there are more links between provincial networks and the United States than between the provinces of Canada.

If the market retail price of energy appears to be higher in the United States, the wholesale market is more volatile with the uncontrolled exploitation of shale gas and American claims that hydropower is not a clean energy (negotiations needed?).

However, during the most recent events regarding only the province of Ontario, we must take into account the decommissioning of coal plants and some nuclear power plants that have already reached the end of their useful life, like BRUCE. The energy costs are expected to increase rapidly. The few and very expensive programs launched at a high price at the beginning of 2011 on the wind and solar industries, up to 80 cents for solar, were immediately recalled to exorbitant costs and all this, while Quebec is trying to get a

 

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fair price of between 6 to 8 cents in the U.S. market for the production of the “La Romaine complex” under construction.

Market Prices - Electricity Summer 2011

Montreal 6.88 Cts/kWh Moncton 11.66 Winnipeg 7.08 Toronto 11.82 Vancouver 7.79 Halifax 12.89 Edmonton 9.27 Regina 13.15 Calgary 10.65 St-John’s 10.73 Ottawa 11.00 Charlottetown 16.15 Boston 16.82 Chicago 10.93 New York 22.82

There is definitely a lack of vision at the Canadian and provincial government levels. Thoughtful planning for the whole country would boost hydropower at a rate comparable to that of the 70s and 80s. We can consider such an opportunity as an example of the “ “federal perequation program” ... where there would be no losers.

 

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5.3 Potential Major Projects 5.3.1 Inventory of the Potential Projects (Reminder) 5.3.2. Canada-wide Essential Prerequisite 5.3.3 Major Potential Hydroelectricity Projects Lower Churchill Tidal Energy St. Lawrence Basin and “Water from the North” scheme James Bay Western Canada 5.3.1 Inventory of the Potential (reminder) A brief survey of the potential projects already under consideration or pending makes it possible to appreciate the immediately available potential, approximately 30,000 MW excluding 5,000 MW of tidal power. A brief overview of these opportunities and the characteristics of each province must now be conducted. Manitoba, Potential Projects (4,915 MW) Burntwood River 680 MW 3 sites Nelson River 3,990 MW 6 sites Quebec Potential Projects (approximately 19,000 MW) Lower North Shore 4,000 MW (Romaine, Petit-Mécatina and others) Secondary Potential 5,000 MW (50 plants ranging from 50 to 150 MW) James Bay 5,000 MW (Gr. Baleine and secondary potential) Nottaway Broadback 5,200 MW (excluding the Rupert, now diverted) St. Lawrence 1,000 MW (Montreal, Beauharnois, others) Newfoundland (Labrador) (5,000 MW) Lower Churchill 4,000 MW (Gull Island, Muskrat Fall, secondary sites) Nova Scotia (6,700 MW) tidal energy, potential (40% of F.U.?) Comberland Bassin 1 400 MW Cobequid Bay 5 300 MW

With regard to projects located in Manitoba, an analysis that would cover all major drainage basins of the most important rivers of the plains should be carried out beforehand so as not to overlook other even more interesting opportunities. Each of these options for the development of hydroelectric plants will be discussed later in this document. However, before implementing these projects that are often far removed from the needs expressed, there is a prerequisite: completion of a Canada-wide transmission network.

 

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5.3.2 Canada-wide, Essential Prerequisite

In order to undertake the construction of a new "generation" of hydroelectric projects across Canada, projects that are always more and more scattered and further away from populated areas, it is necessary to define a transmission strategy. Chapter 11 of the present volume will present a Canada-wide high-voltage transmission network.

The strategy chosen, to make this Canada-wide transmission network profitable, is to aim each power lines for three objectives simultaneously. These objectives are first to link these new projects to areas of consumption, then connect together the existing provincial networks and finally, to use the opportunity to replace or move the expensive and polluting power plants into a role as a reserve. The whole strategy could be, in large part, funded by the Government of Canada who could simply reinvest the cash from the taxes collected on these projects.

Over two decades, we would add approximately 15,000 kilometers of high voltage lines to the 11,400 km that Hydro-Quebec is already operating at a cost of approximately $ 22 billion in 2010, excluding operating stations. Still, more than 60 % of this power grid would be located in Quebec.

(A summary of the engineering study is presented at the end of this chapter)

5.3.3 Major Potential Hydroelectricity Projects Lower Churchill Tidal Energy St. Lawrence Basin and North Water James Bay Western Canada

The 5 428 MW Churchill Falls powerhouse is already in place since the beginning of the seventies. These two new major projects of Gull Island (1,711 MW at 76% F U) and Muskrat Falls (824 MW at 74% F U) have been known and sketched since the sixties. What is not known, is whether there is a possibility to add to this 7,760 MW complex additional projects such as diversions from the basin upstream of the Georges River or a 275 W plant to the Lobstick flood-control structure, to ultimately bring the power of this complex to some 8 500 MW at an approximately 75% load factor.

With the Quebec government’s “North Plan” (Plan Nord), three other mining complexes will soon be added 100 to 150 km north of the town of Schefferville. In addition, within the North Plan, the planned mining development will then only be approximately 200 km from the Ungava Bay, very conducive to development of several tidal power plants. In

 

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addition, all development along the Georges River would also be suitable for the hydroelectric development of this large river.

Lower Churchill

Also, the development of mines north of Schefferville assumes, according to the promoter, the construction of a second railway to Sept-Iles, which could greatly facilitate the implementation of power lines, tidal power and hydroelectric plants on the rivers of the region, including this important Georges River.

Unfortunately, the implementation of the Lower Churchill complex requires building two transmission lines of 1,300 km to reach areas of high consumption, which Quebec does

 

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not see in a positive light, especially if it allows Newfoundland to compete with Quebec in the U.S. market. The problem is also political. On the other hand, one of these lines could rather directly serve Newfoundland and Nova Scotia.

(Writing this article, it was announced, on this morning of 2011-11-18, that the government of Canada have just approved to guaranty the loans for this project of Muskrat Falls and this line to Newfoundland and Nova Scotia)

Quebecers have never accepted that the Privy Council in London took Labrador away from them in 1927, while Newfoundlanders bitterly regret the long-term agreement to

 

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sell at a discount the production of Churchill Falls until 2041. On the one hand, Quebecers could be consoled by the fact that the size of their province, limited to the St. Lawrence until 1911, was then increased tenfold without even having to ask. On the other hand, Newfoundland should realize that without this agreement, there would still be nothing done while considering that possible further developments, with a power of some 3,500 MW is not a cheap consolation prize.

As for the transmission system, performed in a completely Canadian perspective, it would be acceptable for Quebec. The only thing missing are political visionaries.

Tidal Energy

Since the seventies, the Province of Nova Scotia is juggling with the enormous potential of 6,700 MW which is tidal power from the Bay of Fundy, where tides are the highest in the world with a height of 63 feet or 19.25 meters. In the early eighties, a pilot project of 20 MW was implemented at Annapolis.

If the profitability of this project could be analyzed in the context of the Canadian market, without distribution cost and considering the current and future cost of energy, particularly in Ontario, it is quite possible that the implementation would begin in the short or medium term.

However, the Ungava Bay, in turn, has the second highest tide in the world, 53 feet or 16.4 meters, and has a multitude of bays suitable for the installation of a tidal power stations. It is quite possible that this region is even more favorable than the Bay of Fundy with regards to the tidal energy possibility.

St. Lawrence Basin and “Water from the North” complex

Indirectly, the hydroelectric industry is involved in the profound changes underway in the hydrology of the basin of the St. Lawrence River. Experts in climate change foresee a reduced intake of about 20 to 30% in the Great Lakes, or 1,000 to 1,500 cubic meters per second in Sarnia and, possibly up to 2,000 cubic meters per second at Cornwall. In addition to reducing all energy production of the important plants in Niagara, Cornwall and Beauharnois, this reduction in flows is likely to dry large sections of the St. Lawrence River.

 

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This, at least in its downstream portion of the riverbed, between the cities of Montreal and Quebec, this reverbed is often shallow outside the dredged right-of-way of the Seaway, which also acts somewhat as a drainage channel, which adds to the difficulties of managing water levels. How can we protect the environmental quality of over 18,000 kilometers of shoreline often occupied and more than 1,000 square kilometers of very rich wetlands? Until recently, water was released to increase the level but such releases no longer seem possible, as water is less and less available.

A recently presented alternative proposes to complete the flood-control infrastructures in such a way as to arrange the whole basin of the St. Lawrence river like a waterfall of some ten reservoirs. The lakes and reservoirs already controlled are those of Lake Superior, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Lake St. François. The infrastructures to be added would be located in Sarnia for the management of lakes Michigan and Huron, in the Lachine Rapids for the management of Lake St. Louis, possibly in downtown Montreal for the Laprairie basin and in the cities of Sorel and Portneuf for the downstream portion of the St. Lawrence.

Thus, the flow management would become independent of the level management. Better, without significant impacts on the environment, we could then use part of the water inputs to one day meet the drinking water needs of the population of the St. Lawrence basin. Every flow of 100 cubic meters per second is indeed enough to allocate a daily generous amount of 100 gallons per person to a population of 20 million people. The project cost for these five infrastructures is estimated at about $ 5 billion.

“Water from the North” complex

However, to avoid creating large areas of standing water in the river, it would be necessary to add new water supplies to the St. Lawrence River basin. The only alternative identified to date to divert water to the St. Lawrence River basin, suggests intercepting the major rivers of Bell and Waswanipi in the Matagami area and to pump it to a height of 53 meters along the Bell river and into the Ottawa River basin. These new contributions of 800 cubic meters per second would then be turbined on 300 meters of head, in a dozen existing powerhouses and generate an energy surplus of 14.6 TWh and a power of 2,950 MW, at the very border of Ontario.

The project takes the existing bed of the rivers and flows diverted while never exceeding the natural flood flows of these rivers. The project cost is estimated at $ 14 billion in 2010, to which must be subtracted the investment required to bring the existing facilities

 

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up to date with the most recent safety standards and allow them to deal with the major floods caused by the effects of climate change.

Moreover, the project would still allow for the development of a residual potential of about 1,800 MW on the Nottaway River in the north, in the James bay basin.

 

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James Bay

The La Grande Complex is already putting the contributions from the Caniapiscau and Eastmain rivers to good use, and more recently, the Rupert River was added. Other rivers in the region have also been studied in the very detailed final design. Among these rivers are the Great Whale River, and the Nottaway and Broadback rivers. Finally, the implementation of a major complex in a region, like the La Grande Complex, still has the effect of generating several complementary projects by bringing in the region a network of energy transmission and road network.

South of the La Grande complex, it is still possible to achieve what remains of the Nottaway Broadback Rupert complex project. Thus the two rivers, Nottaway and Broadback could allow for the installation of a dozen plants with a total capacity of around 3,200 MW. However, it is considered that a choice must be made between this project and the proposed "Water from the North” scheme because they use the same water supply. This Nottaway Broadback complex project would have much more impact on the environment and would be much more expensive to produce and all that, without solving the problem of the drying-up taking place in the St. Lawrence basin.

North of the La Grande Complex, there could be another hydroelectric complex project on the Great Whale River, whose very advanced studies were halted in 1995. This project remains very interesting, with an installed capacity of 2,900 MW. Its layout should be revised to reduce the environmental impacts, including among other things the extent of the flooded areas in the proposed area of the Bienville Reservoir.

Finally, the completion of the La Grande complex has made this area accessible and connected it to a network. More than a dozen of smaller sites therefore became interesting. To this end, we note the sites of the upstream part of the La Grande River and the Eastmain River and of several tributaries. The downstream part to the diversion of the Rupert River still offers a potential of 500 MW that could easily be converted. On the whole there could still be a secondary potential for the development of some 3,000 MW.

 

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Western Canada

Western Canada, which according to estimates by the Canadian Hydropower Association has a vast theoretical potential of 91,000 MW, poses a major difficulty in that the important watersheds, including those of the Mackenzie River, Churchill and Thelon rivers, often cover all or several of the prairie provinces. The implications of each project on other projects of the same complex, including reservoir volumes, flow rates, equipment and chosen levels of water control can only result from a comprehensive global study of theses complex. Even better, a study of the topography to suggest possible diversions from one basin to another and even partial diversion from the Arctic basin to the Hudson Bay watershed, which would limit the quantities of "hot water" discharged northward, therefore to alleviate some of the warming.

The size of the first data from the project are promising. The average flow at the mouth of the MacKenzie is 9,700 cubic meters per second, more than the river St. Lawrence in Montreal. The MacKenzie river has a drainage basin of 1,805,200 sq. km. There are

 

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several great lakes like the Great Slave Lake (28,528 sq. km) and the Great Bear Lake (31,328 sq. km) which could easely be used as reservoirs.

 

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Do we need to emphasize that in addition, the study of these large complexes would not only consider the power generation but would also aim to offset the effects of drying-up of the prairies due to climate change, including melting glaciers that currently feed this river system in a significant proportion. Exceptional floods as experienced in 2011 by Manitobans could also be managed to some extent.

These projects sometimes go beyond five jurisdictions. How do we achieve such an implementation? An initial study would be required to outline the possible alternatives for the complexes as also needed to raise public interest. An initiative is to be taken somewhere by somebody. In principle, it should report to the Government of Canada but in practice, nothing could be better than initiating a "think tank".

Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction…

Here it seems appropriate to remind a story. In Quebec, in the second half of the sixties, while building Manic-Outardes, Hydro-Québec focused its studies on the Nottaway, Broadback and Rupert rivers even if they were lacking falls and had huge swampy areas. These huge rivers had the sole advantage of being located immediately north of the Abitibi. Two men, Messrs. Rousseau and Warren, then took personal initiative to outline in their own way what would become the La Grande complex, where "there were both bedrock, important vertical drops, and not just high flow rates. "

Having the ear of Prime Minister Robert Bourassa, the two projects were put in competition, with the result we now know. And just to think that these peoples are not known to the public despite the influence they had on the future of Quebec!

 

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5.4 Recommendations

5.4.1A Canada-wide Transmission Network 5.4.2 Alberta: the necessity of a provincial water and power authority 5.4.3 Inventory of the hydroelectricity potential of Canada

5.4.1 The development of a national energy strategy has become essential

This Canada-wide transmission network is essential to initiate the creation of this new generation of large hydroelectric complexes located far from major consumption centers, especially in the Northwest Territories, Yukon and Labrador. This network is also essential to link the provincial networks among themselves and to replace the existing expensive and polluting power plants. The profitability of the project is provided by the simultaneous advantages associated with these three important goals.

5.4.2 Alberta: the necessity of a provincial water and power authority

Alberta is the only province not to have set up a state enterprise. Such an enterprise is indispensable to carry out a strategic planning for the medium and long term for all of its energy infrastructures, particularly in order to develop its hydropower potential and implement a strategic distribution network.

This government owned corporation, who may or may not integrate the multiple existing companies as shareholders or otherwise, would have the aim of having an entity capable of carrying out major desirable improvements to meet the energy needs of the population of Alberta. Its intervention, as a representative of Alberta, would be essential to achieve such development of large hydroelectric complexes in Western Canada covering several provinces and territories.

5.4.3 Inventory of the hydroelectricity potential of Canada

It is of vital and strategic importance that each of the provincial energy companies continues to expand the inventory of its potential, from its list of projects. Incentives such as sponsorship of engineering studies and mapping could be taken in this direction to the federal level, particularly for provincial jurisdictions that do not have the necessary resources.

Indeed, an important component of this inventory deals with topography and hydrometric surveys in Western Canada and the Northwest Territories, Yukon and Nunavut. Ideally, the Canadian government should tackle the task, through the Ministry of Natural Resources, to develop a scale mapping of 1:20.000 as Quebec has done. The existing mapping at a scale of 1:50.000 from this ministry is not enough these days, for economic

 

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development and environmental studies projects. Obviously, these data will then be made readily available.

(A very effective way of supporting the economic, social and environmental development of developing countries would be to let them carry out their own mapping, which is the basis for all subsequent studies. Canadian technology in this area is also one of the best in the world because of our past achievements. This is a great way to instigate the development of these countries while spending the money in Canada.)

5.5 References

Canadian Academy of Engineering: Report of the Canada Power Grid Task Force Canadian Hydroelectricity Association:Hydroelectricity in Canada, Past, Present and Future Bowman Centre for Technology Commercialization, University of Western Ontario Canada: Winning as an energy superpower Web Sites: Hydro-Québec, B C Hydro Nova Scotia Hydro Manitoba Hydro Saskatchewan Hydro OPG Ontario Power Generation Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro New Brunswick Hydro Ministry of Natural Resources Department of Natural Resources

 

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APPENDIX A

Hydroelectric Powerhouses in Operation in Canada (main installations, at the beginning of 2011)

British Columbia (approximately 11,330 MW, 43 to 54 TWh) Hydroelectricity – approximately 10,000 MW Lower Mainland Network (10 plants) (1,065 MW) Bridge River 460 MW Buntzen 72 MW Cheakmus 158 MW Stave Falls 91 MW Ruskin 105 MW Wahleach 64 MW Columbia Network (12 plants) Including Revelstoke with 2,416 MW and Mica with 1,740 MW (2,805 MW projected) Peace River Network (2 plants) 3,424 MW Bennett Dam 2,730 MW (GR Shrum) (+177 MW projected) and Peace Canyon 694 MW Vancouver Island Network (7 plants) Including Strathcona with 65 MW, Ladore with 47 MW and John Hart with 126 MW Alberta Alberta is the only province without a government corporation. The entire equipment fleet includes 109 thermal plants at the end of 2010, for an installed capacity of 13,535 MW. A theoretical hydroelectricity potential of some 11,000 is still planned. Saskatchewan (3,509 MW) Hydroelectricity (853 MW) Coteau Creek 186 MW Nipawin 255 MW E B Campbell 288 MW Island Falls 101 MW Crume 92 MW Athabasca System 23 MW (3 plants) Manitoba (5,475 MW, 35.3 TWh) 16 hydroelectric plants Winnipeg River Nelson River Great Falls 131 MW Jenpeg 132 MW Seven Sisters 165 MW Kelsey 250 MW Pine Falls 89 MW Kettle 1,220 MW Pointe du Bois 78 MW Limestone 1,340 MW Long spruce 1,010 MW Grand Rapids 479 MW Saskatchewan River

 

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Ontario (19,000 MW, 88.6 TWh) Hydroelectricity (6,790 MW with 66 plants for approximately 6,996 MW Central Group 29 plants for 300 MW app North-East Group 13 1,000 MW app. North-West Group 11 680 MW Ottawa St. Law. Gr. 10 2,576 MW Niagara Group 4 2,439 MW (including Sir Adam Beck No. 1 with 498 MW and No. 2 with 1,499 MW + 245 MW gain with the new power tunnel) Quebec 42,629 MW, approximately 185 TWh Hydroelectric: 34,490 MW, 60 plants, excluding 5,428 MW from Churchill Falls

including La Grande Complex with 17,295 MW Manic-Outardes Complex with 7,958 MW Bersimis Complex with 2,047 MW St-Maurice Complex with 1,825 MW Beauharnois with 1,911 MW Note: these installed capacities are progressively over-equipped and optimized during major

rehabilitation of the facilities. To this equipment of Hydro-Québec must be added some private facilities such as ALCAN, with an installed capacity of 2,576 MW.

New Brunswick 4,533 MW Hydroelectric (934 MW) including Mactaquac 672 MW Beechwood 113 MW Grand Falls 66 MW Tobique 20 MW Sisson 9 MW Tinker Dam 34.5 MW (private) Nepisiquit Falls 11 MW (private) St-Georges Dam 15 MW (private) Nova Scotia 2,368 MW (13 TWh) Hydroelectric (380 MW) 33 plants for a total of 360 MW and Annapolis, 20 MW, tidal power Prince Edward Island none Newfoundland 7,289 MW Hydroelectric (6,433 MW) including Churchill Falls 5,428 MW Baie d’Espoir 604 MW Cat Arm 127 MW Granite 40 MW Hinds Lake 75 MW Paradise River 8 MW Upper Salmon 84 MW Star Lake 18.4 MW Private plants (2) 66 M