Academic Writing Skills

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Welcome!

This booklet contains all the handouts and information that you will need for the Academic Writing Skills workshop. You will also find useful advice that you can keep for future reference, such as help with grammar and punctuation, writing introductions and conclusions, and checklists for editing your work. Please note that you will find the session more useful if you have already attended the Critical Thinking workshop beforehand, or, if you are an international student, have attended the induction lecture offered by the International Office. When you are asked to write an essay or report, your tutor will be looking for evidence of these three skills:

Gathering of complex material

Making sense of that complex material

Communicating your understanding of that complex material to an informed reader.1

We are not born knowing how to put these skills into practice. Researching, planning and writing an assignment are skills that can be learnt and developed, and we hope that this workshop will build your confidence in producing clearly written, strongly argued and well structured pieces of work. We’ll give you practical hints for managing your time and stress, as well as helping you to build in that all-important critical thinking into every step of the writing process. Be prepared to make some changes to how you write and plan your assignments – if you always work in the same way, you’ll keep getting the same results. Start with some small adjustments and see what a difference they can make. Many of the hints and exercises are taken from Bryan Greetham’s How to Write Better Essays (Hampshire: Palgrave, 2001), and Sky Marsen’s Professional Writing (Hampshire: Palgrave 2003) and I recommend them to you as useful guides. Enjoy the session, and good luck with your work!

Dr Tracy Johnson, Skills Development Officer

1 Moira Peelo, Helping Students With Study Problems (Society for Research into Higher Education:

Buckingham, 1994), p. 70.

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Critical Thinking and Analysis

If you have another look at the three main skills being tested when you write, you may notice that the one we tend to neglect is making sense of and thinking about the material that we gather. A typical approach to putting together an essay goes something like this:

Receive essay question

Ignore essay question for a while

Realise there are only a few days left until essay is due in

Go to the library or search the Internet, taking copious notes

Sit with blank screen and pile of notes

Panic/feel a bit sick/procrastinate

Painstakingly produce your work, sentence by agonising sentence

Print it off, checking for obvious mistakes

Hand it in and hope for the best When your essay is returned to you with feedback, one of the most commonly cited comments from tutors is, ‘not enough critical analysis’. What makes the difference between a 2:2 and a 2:1? Critical analysis and evaluation of other arguments, rather than just the reproduction of them in your work, is what your tutor wants to see.

Bloom’s Taxonomy of Skills

All university syllabuses are produced within the context of six ‘cognitive domains’, or intellectual abilities. From the simplest to the most complex, they look like this:

1. Recall 2. Comprehension 3. Application 4. Analysis 5. Synthesis 6. Evaluation/critical ability2

2 Bryan Greetham, How to Write Better Essays (Hampshire: Palgrave, 2001), p.63.

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What Do They Want From Me?

At school the recall and reproduction of information may well have been what gained you marks. The difference in higher education is that it is your skills and not your memory that is being tested. There are no ‘right’ answers. You are expected to look at both the black and the white, and then to distinguish between the shades of grey. What you must keep in mind at all times is that simply restating other people’s arguments without commenting on them yourself will not gain you the high marks you desire. The ability to bring together information and argument and convincingly provide your own interpretation of them (synthesis and evaluation) is what will push you up the mark scale:

‘It is never a question of coming to the ‘right’ answer (though you can expect a tutor to defend his or her position if it differs from yours) but rather of demonstrating that you understand what the issue is about and that you can produce a well-reasoned, balanced and critical argument concerning it.’3

It is very important for the academic rigour of your work that critical evaluation is intrinsic to the entire assignment writing process, from interpreting the question to checking the quality of your argument in the final revisions. Adopting a critical attitude throughout means that you are ‘rehearsing’ and testing your arguments all the time, and this means that your final draft will be more polished and intellectually sophisticated by the time your tutor marks it. You may find the prospect of critically evaluating the arguments of academics rather daunting, but this is exactly what you are being asked to do. Remember that there is a big difference between being critical in a negative way – not what we want you to do – and being critical in terms of analysing the components of arguments, their strength and their relationships with each other: rather like surveying a house, checking it for cracks and then comparing it with other houses in the same street. You are not being asked to undermine or negate other people’s arguments.

3 Eric Eve, A Guide for Perplexed Students, 4: Tutorial Essays (Oxford: University of Oxford, 2000),

pp. 3-4, cited in Greetham, p. 64.

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What’s the difference between an essay and a report?

This is what Sky Marsen has to say about the different purposes of essays and reports:

‘An essay is usually written to persuade. The main point of the essay is stated in the introduction, and supporting points are added in the body of the essay. By contrast, some kinds of reports simply state facts. Other kinds of reports recommend action, but only after reviewing facts and drawing conclusions from them. The language in a report must be as objective as possible, whereas essays allow for more subjectivity.

An essay is usually composed of continuous paragraphs, whereas a report includes headings and subheadings. Therefore, transition signals and a regulated flow of ideas have more prominence in an essay than a report.

A report is designed to be separated into sections, to aid comprehension and distribution. This is why there is more room for repetition of information in a report then in an essay. For example, the executive summary, introduction, conclusions and recommendations all give similar information to that covered in the discussion section of the report, although using different words.

Paragraphs tend to be shorter in a report than in an essay.’4 You will find that some of the reports you are asked to write at university will make use of similar skills used in essay writing. It is rare to be asked to present pure information or just state facts without any kind of commentary on your method and reasoning, or on how you have synthesised data and theories encountered during your research. There will most likely still be some kind of critical thinking involved in the production of a report, and your proposals must be couched in very clear terms and presented using an appropriate format. Later on perhaps, when you are working in graduate employment, you may be asked to produce more specifically informative rather than analytical reports. As with essay writing, the production of a really good report lies in the early stages. Careful planning should take up about 75% of all the time you spend on your report, and will pay dividends in terms of its quality and clear organisation.

4 Sky Marsen, Professional Writing (Hampshire: Palgrave, 2003), p. 135.

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Step One – Interpreting the Question

You’ve been given your title/topic and you want to get started straightaway. This is a good approach, as it means you start tackling the task immediately and are taking control of the process from the start. You may think that going straight into the research process is the best place to start, but looking for books and articles in the library and on the Internet without spending time thinking about the question is a recipe for too many unfocused notes and muddled thinking. Before you go near any information, the first crucial step in assignment writing is for you to decide what the question is asking and what the implications are.

Active Learning - What You Can Do Scary as it sounds, sit down with nothing more than the question, a piece of paper and a pen and get started – yes, without touching a single book. Forget about writing in perfectly formed sentences and start ‘brainstorming’: putting everything that comes to mind on paper. Try making a pattern diagram or Mind Map to open up your thinking and get a sense of what you think the question is asking. Identify the key or directive words in the title (see the list overleaf). If you do not start thinking for yourself before you start researching, the authors you read will dictate to you; you will have no position of your own to work from, or a model against which you can compare other ideas. You are also in danger of accumulating a mass of irrelevant information that can hinder your progress and create unnecessary stress later on.5 Try the following if you feel like you don’t know where to start:

Write down in your own words what you think the question is asking.

Write down what you already know about the topic

Write down how this assignment is similar to or different from other assignments you are also working on – look for points of comparison and contrast to broaden your knowledge of the field

Identify the specific areas you need to research.6

Think of questions to which you would like to find the answers.

5 Greetham, p. 44.

6 List adapted from Crème and Lea, Writing at University: A Guide for Students (Buckingham: Open

University Press, 1997).

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Write to the Resistance You can also try a technique called ‘writing to the resistance’. This means that when you feel stuck, or if you have ‘writer’s block’ later on, try writing about what the problem is: how you feel about it, what you have done about it, or anything else that you can think of. Many students see the act of writing only as part of putting together their drafts. Writing can also be a powerful tool for helping you to think through problems, and you will feel better for getting any doubts or worries out of your head and onto paper.7 Writing also kick starts the thinking process in your brain - it gets you working actively and thinking more creatively.

Exercise

Now, try brainstorming ideas for the following essay title: ‘Advertisers seek only to ensure that consumers make informed choices.’ Discuss.’8

Now synthesise these ideas by sifting out what you don’t need and map out a possible structure for the answer. Use this to focus your research and evaluate the information you uncover. Is it really relevant to your argument? How will you use each piece of evidence?

7 Sky Marsen, Professional Writing (Hampshire: Palgrave, 2003), pp. 1-8.

8 Greetham, p. 25.

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Some Key or Directive Words

Analyse Break a topic down into its component parts and examine each

part in detail. Argue Present the case for and against a particular proposition. Compare Look for similarities and differences between propositions. Contrast Place propositions in opposition to show the differences

between them. Criticise Give your judgement about the merit of theories/opinions about

a topic and support that judgement through a discussion of evidence.

Define Give a precise meaning. Show how the distinctions implied in

that definition are necessary. Describe Give a detailed account of a subject. Discuss Examine by argument and debate reasons for and against. Evaluate Appraise a theory/opinion, supported by evidence. Explain Make clear, interpret and account for in detail. Illustrate Explain through the use of concrete examples. Justify Defend or show adequate grounds for decisions or conclusions. Outline Give the main points or principles of a subject, omitting minor

details, and emphasising structure and relationship. Prove Demonstrate truth or falsity by presenting evidence. Review Make a survey, examining the subject critically. Summarise Give a concise account of a subject, omitting details and

examples. Trace Identify and describe the development from some point or

origin.9

9 http://www.ex.ac.uk/dll/studyskills/Essay_workshop/essay-wprkshop-2-web.htm

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Active Reading and Research

Many of us read very passively, underlining some things and copying out chunks of text to use as quotations and evidence later on. Here is a 7-point plan to make your reading more productive.

1. Set up an area that you use specifically for study, so that you associate it with work and a concentrating mindset. This could be in your bedroom, in the library or wherever you want, but make sure your environment distracts you as little as possible, and ensure that you’ve got all the equipment you need to hand before you start.

2. Decide how much you will read or for how long you are going to work, and schedule it for a time when you are awake and able to concentrate. If you’re a late night worker, then don’t force yourself to do a complicated task at 8am. Work effectively for short periods of time, not aimlessly for hours. Write a timetable and set goals to keep you on track.

3. Get into the habit of skimming and scanning a text for key words/phrases to see if it is worth reading in detail. Don’t waste your time reading irrelevant material.

4. If you really need to take a lot of notes then do so, but reread them the next day and write down how exactly they will be used later on. If they are not relevant, put them aside. Don’t throw notes away until the end of your assignment, though, as your thoughts will develop during the writing process and you may wish to refer to them later on.

5. Use linear notes for recording arguments, rather than pattern diagrams. They will help you to retain a sense of structure and progression.

6. File carefully and be organised. Keep a box file for those extra notes, clippings or articles that you may want to keep for later.

7. Remember - ‘To be of any use, notes should be an accurate record of our understanding, of our thinking, not someone else’s.’10 Make sure that you comment on every idea, concept or quotation that you note down, otherwise you are not thinking critically: you are just restating other people’s ideas.

10

Greetham, p. 104.

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Reading Critically – Questions to Ask

To read actively, ask specific questions about the texts you are working with, rather than just making notes and copying chunks of text. The most important question to ask will always be ‘how is this relevant to my argument?’, but the questions below will help you assess the quality of any arguments/theories/models presented to you.

Are the arguments consistent, or are they contradictory?

Are they relevant (i.e. do the authors use arguments they know you’ll agree with, but which are not relevant to the point they’re making)?

Do they use the same words to mean different things at different stages of the argument (what’s known as the fallacy of equivocation)?

Are there underlying assumptions that they haven’t justified?

Can you detect bias in the argument?

Do they favour one side of the argument, giving little attention to the side for which they seem to have least sympathy? For example, do they give only those reasons that support their case, omitting those that don’t (the fallacy of special pleading)?

Is the evidence they use relevant?

Is it strong enough to support their arguments?

Do they use untypical examples, which they know you will have to agree with, in order to support a difficult or extreme case (what’s known as the fallacy of the straw man)?

Do they draw conclusions from statistics and examples which can’t adequately support them?11

Do I agree/disagree with this? Why? Why not?

Is this relevant to my work?

How, specifically, will I use this in my assignment?

Q. Apart from using these questions to evaluate other writers’ arguments, at what other stage in the writing process would you need to ask them? A. When you are critically analysing your own work before submission.

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List adapted frpm Greetham, pp. 84-85.

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Planning Your Work

Before you even think about writing your draft, you need to produce a very detailed plan to work from. Creating a document that maps out every aspect of your answer and identifies where you will use your collected evidence, will ensure a much less stressful drafting experience.

During your research, you will have filled out the plan you made when you interpreted your question or topic. You will also have evaluated your research as you went along, so you now know what you will be using and how it will develop your argument.

You need to provide a clear structure for the reader to follow throughout the assignment. Write the introduction and each subsequent paragraph so that it contains a ‘signpost’ telling the reader where they are in your argument. Remember that what seems clear to you may well need clarifying for your audience.

Move from a general schematic, or outline, to a highly detailed plan: effectively, your plan will be your assignment in note form.

Stay critical – rehearse and test your arguments as fully as possible before you start the first draft. If something feels vague, then you can guarantee that it will be noticed by your tutor and that you will be asked to be more specific.

Divide the answer into main sections and then into paragraphs. What will go into each paragraph? Write the ‘topic sentence’ (the first or second sentence explaining the purpose of the paragraph) for each one and allocate the main points and their supporting evidence.

Remember the Paragraph Formula: topic sentence, development of argument, supporting evidence.

Identify how each paragraph links to the preceding and subsequent one. Does your argument proceed logically? Are you making a comparison, or are you extending your discussion of a particular point? Look at the list of Compound Transitions below to help you ‘signpost’ appropriately the development of your argument and to guide the reader through your work.

Start filling out these detailed notes into the first draft. This should now be far easier than working with a blank screen or page.

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Putting the First Draft Together

Writing Up

Try not to edit as you go along. Just get everything written down knowing that you will be able to revise it later.

Try to stay as close as you can to the natural patterns of speech, without being informal, and avoid unnecessary academic jargon. You should be aiming to explain complex ideas in a straightforward manner.

Maintain logic, brevity and interest

Choose words that are accurate and specific – don’t be vague.

See the Style Guide below for common errors to avoid and for ways to simplify your writing.

Using evidence and argument

Vary the types of evidence to make your work more readable

Make sure that your evidence is doing some work

Don’t bury the reader in too much information

Create a clear structure so that your reader can see how your evidence is being used

Show any relevant counter arguments to provide a balanced viewpoint

Highlight loose ends and ambiguities – these can be useful jumping-off points for exploration. Academic work is not about tying up every argument neatly, but more to do with engaging in debate and discussion.

Referencing and Citation

We have not included a guide to referencing because there are several (such MLA, Harvard & Chicago) and your Department will ask you to use one of their choosing. There are many web sites that can give you examples of how to use these systems, and some of these are listed in our Further Reading list. Learn how to use them accurately, as correct referencing helps readers to find the resources you have cited quickly and easily. The Six Point Citation Code below should help you decide when you need to cite your sources, as it is essential that you acknowledge your sources and avoid accusations of plagiarism.

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Introductions

Interpret the question

Show that you have grasped its implications and subtleties

Provide a structure for your answer; show the reader your ‘map’

Write it last, if that helps you to know what you are introducing.

This is a sample introduction for the ‘Advertisers seek only to ensure that consumers make informed choices’ essay (Greetham 2001:184). Look at how it lays out its interpretation of the question, identifies areas for development and is clearly written:

‘Most advertising executives are willing to defend their profession by arguing that all they are doing is informing the public and in doing so protecting the democratic freedoms of individuals, in particular their freedom of choice. To a certain extent, of course, this is true: without advertising we would be less informed about new developments in technology, in fashion and in medical advances. Even government warnings about the dangers at work and in the home depend upon advertisements. But the key to this is the claim that this is the ‘only’ thing that they do, when most of the public suspect their paramount concern is to manipulate customers into buying products that they may not want or need.’

Conclusions

You can do any of the following:

Summarise the main points

Pick up the theme of the introduction

Suggest wider implications

Predict future trends

Check that you have delivered on the promises made in your introduction

Collect photocopied examples of introductions and conclusions that you can ‘model’ in terms of their structure and style.

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Style Guide Writing Concisely Using too many words is a common problem in essay writing. It is important to remove unnecessary phrasing; remember to aim for clarity at all times. For example:

I saw Gwyneth Paltrow in the play Proof last night. This is more clearly expressed as,

I saw Gwyneth Paltrow in Proof last night.

Or,

I drove to the city of London reads more clearly as I drove to London.

We need to understand the intricacies of Marx’s theories. That is to say, we must follow the range of arguments in this field

works more simply as We need to understand Marx.

Do you really need to use the following phrases:

Basically speaking, In the long run, In other words, As a matter of fact…?

Be economical with However and therefore – are you using them correctly? Look at the list of transition words above.

Get straight to the point:

What this means is that your car will run more efficiently. Better to say, Your car will run more efficiently.

It is generally more effective to use the ACTIVE VOICE:

PASSIVE: The directive was established by the Prime Minister.

ACTIVE: The Prime Minister established the directive. Use simple words in preference to wordy phrasing:

At this point in time = Now

Prior to = Before

Subsequent to = After

Utilise = Use

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Common Errors to Avoid

Confusing its and it’s. It’s is an abbreviated form of it is. Its denotes possession. For example: The monkey scratched its tail. It’s a nice day.

Misplaced apostrophes. The following examples are correct: The monkey’s tail (one monkey). The monkeys’ tails (more than one monkey).

Plural and singular agreements Each of the options are to be considered at the meeting is incorrect. This should be Each of the options is to be considered at the meeting, because the subject is ‘Each’, which is singular, and not the plural ‘options’.

Confusing imply and infer. To imply something is to suggest. To infer is to deduce.

I implied that I was free to meet Jane this evening; she therefore inferred that I had finished my essay.

Confusing uninterested with disinterested. Uninterested means having no interest or being bored by something. Disinterested means being impartial.

An essay should be written in an appropriately formal style. Avoid the following pitfalls:

o Exclamation marks!!! o Contractions such as don’t, can’t, wouldn’t. o I/We first-person constructions. Use the third person where

possible, in line with academic convention for most subjects. o Abbreviations such as etc., and e.g. These are more suitable for

technical reports. o Slang or colloquial phrasing. o American spellings and phrases

Sources: van Emden, Joan and Lucinda Becker, Effective Communication for Arts and Humanities Students (London: Palgrave, 2003) http://www.worc.ac.uk/departs/psycho/Teaching/Essay_WritingStyles.html

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Compound Transitions

Conjunctions And, moreover, - And although, - And in one respect – And once – And so – And while some – And as it is

Extensions So, even though – It follows then – In this way

– From that angle – By the same token – On that account – Given this

Endorsements Not surprisingly – Of course – And moreover –

Most important of all – Even more – In particular

Contrast But instead – But at the same time – And yet –

But even – But then again – But perhaps – Yet still – But while

Narrative Following this – And after that – But then – So

began – But so far – More recently

Other Useful Transitions

Contrast But, However, On the other hand, Yet… Illustration For example, That is… Extension Similarly, Moreover, Furthermore, In addition,

By extension, What is more… Conclusion Therefore, Consequently, As a result, Thus… Next step Them, After that, It follows… You may also find the following useful: likewise, correspondingly, hence, accordingly, nevertheless, incidentally, otherwise, nonetheless, obviously.12

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List adapted from Greetham, p. 223.

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Six Point Citation Code

This code, borrowed verbatim from Bryan Greetham, should make it easier for you to decide when you need to cite your sources. He suggests you make a note of it and keep it next to your computer screen or pinned above your desk for easy reference. ‘When to cite

1. Distinctive ideas Whenever the ideas or opinions are distinctive to one particular source.

2. Distinctive structure or organising strategy Even though you may have put it into your own words, if the author has adopted a particular method of approaching a problem, or there is a distinctive intellectual structure to what’s written, for example to an argument or to the analysis of a concept, then you must cite the source.

3. Information or data from a particular source If you’ve gathered information from a source in the form of facts, statistics, tables and diagrams, you will need to cite the source, so your readers will know who gathered the information and where to find it.

4. Verbatim phrase or passage Even a single word, if it is distinctive to your author’s argument. You must use quotation marks and cite the source.

5. If it’s not common knowledge Whenever you mention some aspect of another person’s work, unless the information or opinion is widely known, you must cite the source, so your readers can follow it up.

6. Whenever in doubt, cite it! It will do no harm, as long as you’re not citing just to impress the examiner in the mistaken belief that getting good grades depends upon trading facts, in this case references, for marks.’13

It is absolutely crucial that you provide a reference for any information, ideas or words that you take from another writer and incorporate into your essay. Failure to do so may mean that you are guilty of plagiarism, or intellectual theft, which is a serious academic offence and could result in disciplinary procedures. More information can be found at: http://www.bris.ac.uk/tsu/studentsupport/plagiarism/

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Greetham, pp. 236-237.

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Structuring a report

The limiting sentence

Before you begin to outline and plan your report you may find one extra step useful – writing a ‘limiting sentence’. This is a single sentence that states the subject, scope and purpose of your report. We have borrowed this idea from scientific report writers at NASA, who recommend it as way of forcing you to focus your attention on what you expect your report to do. By limiting your scope, you avoid developing a report that keeps extending its reach and trying to cover new ground. This is known as ‘scope creep’ and is something you need to avoid.

Typical report structure Plan out the structure of the report and then attempt to fill it with as much detail as you can – you are basically writing your report in note form, which makes the first draft much easier and less stressful to produce. This is a typical structure for a scientific report, but please check with your Department or tutor for their specifications: Abstract Introduction Explanation of symbols Main body

Theory/Methodology Analysis & Discussion Results Conclusions & concluding remarks

References Appendices (if appropriate)

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Writing Up Your Report

The title

If you have to choose your own, then this should be as brief as possible without sacrificing clarity, and it should clearly indicate the report’s content. For papers that may be published do bear in mind that much indexing is done using titles, so make sure that your paper doesn’t get ‘lost’ because of an inappropriate title.

The abstract

The abstract should be separate from the body of the report and stand alone, presenting all relevant ideas and results to the reader. It shouldn’t be numbered. The abstract should be a summary of only one or two paragraphs, stating what you are trying to do and what the significant results are. Never refer the reader to the abstract later on. It obviously makes sense to write it once you have actually finished your report. Introduction This makes clear the precise subject to be considered, indicates the reasons for considering the subject, and sets out the organization and scope of the report for the reader. The introduction should ‘define and bound the subject in order to guard against misunderstanding’ (NASA, 2001). Results & Discussion This is going to vary hugely depending on your degree discipline and the topic of the report, but planning your work thoroughly at the beginning should have already clarified some of the organisation and structure. Structure The main body should be divided into main sections, 1, 2, 3, and into sub-sections, 1.1, 1.2 and so on, as you see fit, or under worded headings and subheadings. Just don’t go too mad and have too many sections: this looks fussy and over complicates the content. You may also want to include a contents page with an outline of your sections.

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Content To present your results/findings adequately, you must fully understand their significance. This is where you need to bring in your knowledge of other work in the field and make use of your secondary sources. Point out how your findings develop and relate to the knowledge which already exists in your field. The important point is not just to describe your findings but analyse and discuss them – this is how the higher marks will be gained. Incorporating data

Choose only the data necessary to help your readers reach the conclusions you are drawing. Excessive or irrelevant data will confuse and obscure your conclusions.

All figures must have legends that correspond to your text.

Use tables if your readers need to know exact values, and graphs if you want to highlight trends. Remember that everything should be as self-explanatory as possible.

Keep diagrams as clear as possible. Place equations within the text.

Don’t hide contradictory results. If definite contradictions exist, alert your readers to this fact and use it an opportunity for exploration.

Once you have prepared illustrations such as graphs, tables or photographs, write the significant points about each one on an attached sheet of paper. What is the figure supposed to show? This will stop you importing too much irrelevant information into your report.

Data that does not seem pertinent to the main body of the report but that may be useful can placed in an Appendix, but do not use this as a dumping ground for irrelevant material.

Concluding & Supporting Sections This is usually the place where you sum up your points for the reader. It’s also worth bearing in mind the strategies we discussed earlier for your own reading; someone may decide whether or not to read your report based on the strength of your conclusion, so present a summary of your interpretations as clearly as possible – don’t confuse ‘conclusions’ with already known results.

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Sample Report

SIMULATION OF A 40-YEAR CLIMATIC TIME SERIES TO ILLUSTRATE

A RANDOM TREND

Andrew C. Comrie

Dept. of Geography and Regional Development

University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, U.S.A.

Abstract: The dangers of assuming apparent trends to be real are highlighted via

examination of a 40-year random time series of simulated temperature. The overall

trend was examined using linear regression, and shorter-term trends were identified

using a 9-year moving average. The likelihood of the observed trend having occurred

by chance was evaluated by comparison to trends in 100 random series. The example

series displayed annual and decadal variability, as well as a clear upward overall trend

(slope = 0.0089; R2 = 0.1616) with a 2 percent chance of occurrence. The findings

underscore the care that should be taken when evaluating trends in data for which the

controlling processes are not fully understood.

Introduction Many climate studies have examined trends in quantities such as temperature,

precipitation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) based on time series of data collected over the

last 50 to 100 years (e.g., Cayan et al., 1998; Peterson and Vose, 1997; Keeling and

Whorf, 1998). These studies frequently include time-series plots showing, for

example, increases since the middle of the twentieth century. In some cases, these

figures include trend lines or smoothed curves to highlight the nature of a particular

trend.

The statistical strength or weakness of any such trend is usually detailed in the paper.

However, it is not uncommon for a graph of an especially newsworthy trend to be

reproduced in the media. Figure 1 shows two examples of this phenomenon, the

annual Mauna Loa CO2 curve and the annual mean minimum temperature for Tucson,

Arizona. While trends published in scientific articles have undergone review for

scientific and statistical robustness, it is easy for the untrained eye to see apparent

trends in other similar, relatively short time series that may not be real.

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Figure 1. Two examples of climatic time series and trend lines for (a) Mauna Loa

CO2 data from Keeling and Whorf (1998) and (b) mean minimum temperature data at

Tucson International Airport from Peterson and Vose (1997).

The aim of this paper is to examine the apparent trend in a simulated annual climatic

time series using random numbers. Any trends present in the data will have occurred

by chance, and will highlight the level of caution required for interpretation.

Methods

A series of 40 random numbers was created in a spreadsheet (Microsoft Excel) to

simulate annual temperature, representing an arbitrary climatic variable. For each data

point, the software returns an evenly distributed random number greater than or equal

to 0 and less than 1. The long-term trend in the data was examined by calculating and

plotting a straight-line regression. Shorter-term trends approximating a decadal time

scale were examined by calculating a 9-year moving average to smooth the annual

data (i.e., year 1 to year 9 average plotted at year 5, year 2 to year 10 average plotted

at year 6, etc.). The data and results were plotted to enable visual comparison.

To illustrate the likelihood of the observed trend having occurred by chance, 100

versions of the random series were generated for comparison. Slope coefficients were

calculated for each series and tabulated by frequency of occurrence.

Results Figure 2 illustrates the simulated time series and results. Visual inspection shows a

clear upward trend in the 40-year series, although there is noticeable annual and

decadal variability within the overall trend. The regression line has a calculated slope

of 0.0089 and an intercept of 0.401, and it explains about 16 percent of the variance in

the data (R2 = 0.1616). The moving average highlights two apparent cycles of rising

and falling simulated annual temperatures, with a decrease in the middle of the series

that lasts for more than a decade. While the overall spread of data covers the range

between 0 and 1, the higher values tend to fall (randomly) in the middle and later part

of this particular series, thereby leading to an apparent upward trend.

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Figure 2. Random time series of 40 simulated annual temperatures, showing the raw

annual values, the smoothed series using a 9-year moving average to highlight

decadal variability, and the best-fit regression line highlighting the apparent long-

term trend.

If these data were actual temperatures, this would be the point to consider

explanations for the observed trends in the data. However, these are randomly

generated data that are known to have occurred by chance. To examine the likelihood

of the strong apparent trend in Figure 1, the frequency distribution of slope values

representing the long-term trends from 100 simulated data series is provided in Table

2. It can be seen that the chance of the 0.0089 slope in Figure 1 is about 2 percent, or

1 in 50 occurrences.

Table 1: Percentage frequency of slope coefficients in 10 equal sized categories from

100 series of 40 years each.

Slope Frequency (%)

< -0.008 0

-0.008 to -0.006 5

-0.006 to -0.004 8

-0.004 to -0.002 17

-0.002 to 0 18

0 to 0.002 18

0.002 to 0.004 14

0.004 to 0.006 13

0.006 to 0.008 5

> 0.008 2

24

Discussion and Conclusion The results show that a remarkably strong apparent trend occurs in this example of a

40-year random time series of simulated temperature. There are also strong apparent

shorter-term trends visible in the data. While these trends are real in the sense that

they exist for these specific data, the more refined question is to what degree the

observed long-term trend might have occurred by chance. The simulation of 100 time

series provides an answer to this question, and it mimics what would normally be

calculated with some basic statistics.

For these 100 trials, 67 percent of the slopes fell between -0.004 and 0.004

(coinciding with a quantity known as the standard deviation). There are few slope

values near the upper and lower tails of the frequency distribution, which is said to be

normal (or bell shaped), and it appears that the trend in this example is relatively

unusual. Slopes of this magnitude occur with a frequency of only about 2 percent.

This may seem small, but to put it in perspective, if individual random time series

were assigned to each member of a class of 25 students there would be a 50 percent

chance of someone having a series displaying a trend as strong as this example.

Notice also that there is an equal chance of any simulated temperature in the series (or

the temperature for the next year, 41) being between 0 and 1. Yet, the slope values

calculated from the time series are normally distributed, and they have a much greater

chance of being near zero.

In conclusion, this paper has examined trends in a simulated annual climatic time

series using random numbers. The study identified a clear long-term trend in an

example series that is known to have occurred by chance, and it highlights the caution

that should be used when interpreting trends in situations where the underlying

processes are not fully understood.

References Cayan, D.R., M.D. Dettinger, H.F. Diaz, and N.E. Graham, 1998: Decadal variability

of precipitation over western North America. Journal of Climate, 11, 3148-3166.

Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf, 1998: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations -- Mauna Loa

Observatory, Hawaii, 1958-1997. Technical Report NDP-001, Carbon Dioxide

Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose, 1997: An overview of the Global Historical

Climatology Network temperature data base. Bulletin of the American Meteorological

Society, 78, 2837-2849.

25

Appendix Raw data for the example 40-year time series used in the study, and illustrated in

Figure 2.

Year Raw_Data 9-yr_Average

1 0.497138259

2 0.167629143

3 0.594334213

4 0.25999216

5 0.571433527 0.408250071

6 0.24064353 0.400273476

7 0.598618197 0.422243724

8 0.181487353 0.434713576

9 0.562974255 0.475839872

10 0.42534891 0.452854774

11 0.365361371 0.52294034

12 0.706562879 0.543391197

13 0.63012883 0.631537732

14 0.364567641 0.645745307

15 0.871413628 0.696658066

16 0.782675907 0.735152202

17 0.974806165 0.700988974

18 0.690842427 0.670585785

19 0.883563743 0.635680156

20 0.711808598 0.608218434

21 0.399093828 0.562599102

22 0.356500129 0.514998037

23 0.050416981 0.481188078

24 0.62425813 0.455627157

25 0.372101917 0.448180189

26 0.546396576 0.43987523

27 0.386552802 0.510629795

28 0.653515449 0.598826706

29 0.644785886 0.590463604

30 0.324349197 0.648739235

31 0.993291215 0.697518206

32 0.844189183 0.758854334

33 0.548990211 0.755409924

34 0.896582595 0.777210928

35 0.985407317 0.766883809

36 0.938577953 0.766599916

37 0.622515757

38 0.840994928

39 0.231405118

40 0.990736186

Source: http://geog.arizona.edu/~comrie/geog230/report-sample.htm Accessed 10th October 2007.

26

Why isn’t there a sample essay here?

While reports written for university assessments will usually include critical analysis of methodologies, data and interpretations of results, essays are often more subjective pieces of writing in which you are expected to develop your own interpretations, learn how to marshall arguments and find your own ‘voice’. Therefore it is not particularly helpful to provide a ‘model’ for you to use and with which to compare your work. However, there are things that you can do to learn from other writers and develop your own essay writing skills.

Further developing your essay writing skills

Here are some key tips for improving your writing. Firstly, if you want to write well then you need to read as much as you can. Expose yourself to different styles and a range of arguments so that you can learn from what other writers do. When you have found examples of writing that you aspire to (maybe you found a particularly helpful introduction or conclusion, or a lively written style) then photocopy and store it in a file labelled ‘Model Writing’. You can model other people’s structures and styles (NOT their content/arguments/ideas/expressions, as this will constitute plagiarism) to develop your own writing skills. Try not to write ‘like an academic’. Avoid using subject-specific jargon as a form of shorthand. We need you to express your ideas clearly and in your own words so that we can really see that you understand important concepts and that you can deploy academic language at the appropriate time. Remember that you are trying to find your own ‘voice’ and not just mimic others. This is particularly important if you are aiming for high degree classifications as an undergraduate, where fresh thinking will gain marks, and in postgraduate work where an original contribution to your subject becomes part of your criteria for academic credibility.

27

Revising and Editing Your Work

Allow yourself a breathing space after you have completed your draft and put it to one side, at least overnight. Then, revisit your work. To edit effectively, you now need to change your mindset; you are no longer the writer of your essay but the editor, and you must be critical and objective. First, check the structure, then the argument & evidence, and then look at the written expression separately. That means revising your work three times, looking for different things. Make sure that you leave enough time to do this thoroughly; do not get off on the wrong foot with your tutor with a spelling mistake in your introduction, or with some general first paragraphs that do not address the question.

The Checklist

1. Have I interpreted the implications of the question thoroughly? 2. Does the introduction give a clear indication of my structure? 3. Have I arranged the material logically? 4. Does the essay progress fluently between sections? 5. Is each paragraph ‘signposted’ with a ‘topic sentence’? 6. Have I developed each argument sufficiently? 7. Are there difficult passages that need rewriting more clearly? 8. Do I support each argument with evidence and examples? 9. Do all my examples and evidence do real work? 10. Have I shown, rather than told, the reader wherever possible? 11. Have I answered the question relevantly? 12. Have I dealt with all the implications I identified in the

interpretation stage? 13. Have I covered these in enough depth? 14. Have I spent too much time on insignificant issues? 15. Have I presented a convincing case that I could justify

confidently in a discussion? 16. In the conclusion, have I avoided introducing new ideas that

haven’t been dealt with in the body of the essay? 17. Have I tied my conclusion in with my introduction? 18. Have I checked thoroughly for spelling and grammar errors

(not relying on the computer spellchecker)? 19. Is my writing ‘light’, or do I need to simplify my style? 20. Have I acknowledged all my sources and references,

distinguishing my ideas from those of others?14

14

List based on Greetham, pp. 265-266.

28

Further Reading & Help

Books

Cottrell, Stella, The Study Skills Handbook (Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003)

Crème, Phyllis and Mary R. Lea, Writing At University: A Guide For Students (Buckingham: Open University Press, 1997)

Greetham, Bryan, How to Write Better Essays (Hampshire: Palgrave, 2001)

Marsen, Sky, Professional Writing: The Complete Guide for Business, Industry and IT (Hampshire: Palgrave, 2003)

Peck, John & Martin Coyle, The Student’s Guide to Writing: Grammar, Punctuation and Spelling (Hampshire: Palgrave, 2005)

Peck, John & Martin Coyle, Write it Right: A Handbook for Students (Hampshire: Palgrave 2005)

Rose, Jean, The Mature Student’s Guide to Writing (Hampshire: Palgrave, 2001)

Referencing systems

Information Services offers help at: http://www.bris.ac.uk/is/library/findinginformation/literaturereferences.html You can download an MHRA Style Guide from: http://www.mhra.org.uk/Publications/Books/StyleGuide/download.shtml You can also find a comprehensive Harvard Style Sheet at: http://www.leeds.ac.uk/library/training/referencing/harvard.htm Internet Detective – a web site to help you carry out effective online research http://www.vts.intute.ac.uk/detective/index.html

More training & resources Student Skills Directory http://www.bris.ac.uk/studentskills Find and book onto a range of courses, or try out some useful resources. Arts Skills http://www.bris.ac.uk/arts/skills/ Useful information on academic and personal skills development that is relevant to many students, and not just those studying Arts disciplines. Look for the self-evaluation pages to assess your skills. http://www.palgrave.com/skills4study/html/index.asp An online selection of academic skills help extracted from Palgrave’s many student guides.