ABSTRACTS OF THE FIRST EURASIAN CONFERENCE...

Eurasian RISK2019 CONFERENCE 22-24 MAY 2019 - Baku/AZERBAIJAN

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AMIR TECHNICAL SERVICES LLC

INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY

AZERBAIJAN NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

REPUBLICAN SEISMIC SURVEY CENTER


INNOVATIONS IN MINIMIZATION

OF NATURAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS

ABSTRACTS

OF THE FIRST EURASIAN CONFERENCE

“RISK – 2019”

22 – 24 May 2019, Baku, Azerbaijan

Baku – 2019


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Book of abstracts and Program of the First Eurasian Conference "Innovations in

minimization of natural and technological risks", May 22 - 24, 2019, Baku, Azerbaijan,

136р. Main purposes of conference were to unite scientists and specialists from different fields of

knowledge and give them opportunities to share - information, ideas and innovative solutions in

minimization of the natural and technological risks on Eurasian continent, promote knowledge

exchange on risks, innovations and advanced technologies of risk minimization and

support Millennium Challenges and Sendai (Japan) Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-

2030 under UNO.

Книга тезисов и Программа Первой Евразийской конференции «Инновации в

минимизации природных и технологических рисков», 22 – 24 мая 2019, Баку,

Азербайджан, 136с. Основными целями конференции были объединить ученых и специалистов различных

отраслей знаний и предоставить им возможности обмена информацией, идеями и

инновационными решениями минимизации проблем в области природных и техногенных

рисков, на Евразийском континенте, способствовать передаче знаний о рисках, инноваций и

передовых технологиях минимизации рисков, а также поддерживать Вызовы третьего

тысячелетия и Сендайскую (Япония) рамочную программу действий ООН по снижению риска

бедствий на 2015–2030гг. в качестве руководящего базового документа, в котором отражены

стратегические цели и приоритетные направления действий, а также ожидаемые результаты.

ISSN 978 – 9952 – 8357 – 8 – 6

© Vugar Aliyev


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SUPPORTERS – ПАРТНЕРЫ

➢ Ministry of Emergency Situations,

Center of Strategic Investigations, RUSSIA

➢ Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Working Group

“Risk and Safety” under the President of RAS, RUSSIA

➢ Institute of Geography

National Academy of Sciences, AZERBAIJAN

➢ Republican Seismic Survey Center

National Academy of Sciences, AZERBAIJAN

➢ Georgian Technical University

Institute of Water Resources, GEORGIA

➢ Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection

Institute of Ecology and Environmental Protection, UZBEKISTAN

➢ National Academy of Sciences, Institute of Radiobiology, BELARUS

➢ Technical University, MOLDOVA

➢ National Eurasian University, KAZAKHSTAN

➢ Rezekne Academy of Technologies, LATVIA

➢ Risk Analyze Society, RUSSIA

➢ OGS – Energodiagnostika

Industrial and Environmental Safety, RUSSIA

➢ Pasha Travel, AZERBAIJAN


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ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

ОРГАНИЗАЦИОННЫЙ КОМИТЕТ

JOİNT STAFF

General Chair: Prof.Dr. Vugar Aliyev,

Director

AMIR Technical Services LLC

AZERBAIJAN

Co-Chair: Academician Nikolai Makhutov

Head of the Working Group

“Risk and Safety” under the

President of Russian Academy of Sciences, RUSSIA

Co-Chair: Prof.Dr. Motoki Kazama

Tohoku University

Vice President of the

Japanese Geotechnical Society, JAPAN

Executive Secretary: Dr. Emil Gafarov,

Department of Emergency Situations and Human

Life Safety, Azerbaijan University of Architecture

and Construction, AZERBAIJAN

MEMBERS OF ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

ЧЛЕНЫ ОРГАНИЗАЦИОННОГО КОМИТЕТА

Prof. Dr. Academician Ramiz Mammadov, Director Institute of Geography,

National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan Republic

Prof. Dr. Academician Gurban Yetirmishli, General director Seismic Survey Center National

Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan Republic

Ass.Prof. Haider Khwaja, Department of Environmental Health Sciences

School of Public Health University at Albany, Albany, NY, USA

Prof.Aliakbar Rasouli, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and

Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia

Doc.PhD., Igor Cheshik, Head of the International Center of Minimization of Radiation Risks,

Director of the Institute of Radiobiology National Academy of Science, Belarus

Assist. Prof. Dr. Vesna Tunguz, Faculty of Agriculture University of East Sarajevo, Bosnia and

Herzegovina

Prof. Dr. Emil Bournaski, Director Climate, Atmosphere and Water Research Institute Bulgarian

Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria


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Prof. Dr. Palma Orlović-Leko, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering

University of Zagreb, Croatia

Dr. Irena Ciglenecki Jusic, Division for Marine and Environmental Research

Rudjer Bošković Institute, Zagreb, Croatia

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Lena Halounova, Faculty of Civil Engineering Czech Technical University in

Prague, Czech Republic

Prof. RAS, Dr. Ira Didenkulova, Laboratory of Modeling of Natural and Anthropogenic

Disasters, Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University Russia, Department of Marine Systems,

Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia

Prof.Dr., Givi Gavardashvili, Director Institute of Water Resources, Georgian Technical

University, Georgia

Prof. Rolf-Dieter Wilken, Applied Hydrochemistry Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Germany

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Daya Shanker, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of

Technology Roorkee Uttarakhand, India

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bahman J. Amiri, Senior Specialist Faculty of Natural Resources, University of

Tehran, Iran

Honorary Prof., Dr. Vladimir Gurevich, Senior Specialist Central Electrical Laboratory Israel

Electric Corp. Haifa, Israel

Dr. Virgilio Anselmo, Director Anselmo associati, Chieri, Italy

Academician Akhmetkal Medeu, Director Institute of Geography, National Academy of

Sciences, Kazakhstan

Prof. Dr. Iyad Ahmed Abboud, Professor of Environmental Geochemistry Faculty of Sciences

Taibah University, Kingdome of Saudi Arabia

Prof. Dr. Kamchibek Kojogulov, Director Institute of Geomechanics and Development of

Subsoil National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic

Prof., Dr.Peter Grabusts, Faculty of Engineering, Rezekne Academy of Technologies, Latvia

Assist. Prof. Ina Zivatkauskiene, Head of Environmental Engineering Department, Faculty of

Technology Kaunas university of Applied Sciences, Lithuania

Dr. Otilija Miseckaite, Water Resources Engineering Institute Faculty of Water and Land

Management, Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania

Academician Nikolai Makhutov, Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Working Group

“Risk and Safety”, Russia

Dr. Paramesh Banerjee, Technical Director, Earth Observatory of Singapore Nanyang

Technological University, President, Asian Seismological Commission (IASPEI/IUGG),

Singapore


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Prof.Dr. Farshed Karimov, Department of Geology and Mineral Exploration Tajikistan National

University, Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of

Sciences, Tajikistan

Prof.Dr. Dursun Yıldız, Expert on Hydropolitics Director SPD Hydropolitics Academy Center,

Ankara, Turkey

Prof.Dr. Emil Esenov, Research Institute of Seismic Resistance Construction, Ministry of

Construction and Architecture, Turkmenistan

Prof. Anatolii Pavlenko, Faculty of biotechnology, Open International University of Human

Development “Ukraine”, Ukraine

Prof.Dr. Sergei Sazhin, Professor of Thermal Physics Sir Harry Ricardo Laboratories School of

Computing, Engineering and Mathematics University of Brighton, United Kingdom

Prof.Dr. Roman Ibragimov, Laboratory of Regional Seismicity and Seismic Zoning, Institute of

Seismology, Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan

SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE

НАУЧНЫЙ КОМИТЕТ

Academician Garib MAMMADOV, Faculty of Ecology and Soil Sciences, Department of Soil

Sciences, Baku, State University

Academician Islam MUSTAFAEV, Department of Emergency Situations and Human Life

Safety, Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction

Academician Jiang GUIBIN, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese

Academy of Sciences, China

Academician Kamchibek KOJOGULOV, Institute of Geomechanics and Development of

Subsoil, National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic

Prof.Dr. Alex SIDORENKO, Institute for Strategic Risk Analysis in Decision Making, Risk

Academy, Russia

Prof.Dr. Andrey BIKOV, Editor-in-Chief, Russian Journal “Issues of Risk Analysis”, Russia

Prof.Dr. Bahadur GALANDAROV, Faculty of Geology, Department of Hydrogeology and

Engineering Geology, Baku State University, Azerbaijan

Prof.Dr. Battogtokh DORJGOTOV, Institute of Geography and Geoecology, Mongolian

Academy of Sciences, Mongolia

Prof.Dr. Dursun YILDIZ, SPD Hydropolitics Academy Center, Ankara, Turkey

Prof.Dr. Ekrem TUSAT, Selcuk University, Cumra School of Applied Sciences, Konya, Turkey


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Prof.Dr. Farshed KARIMOV, Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology

Academy of Sciences, Tajikistan

Prof.Dr. Gergana KOSTADINOVA, Department of Applied Ecology and Animal Hygiene,

Faculty of Agriculture, Trakia University, Bulgaria

Prof.Dr. Habib TORIKUL, Department of Geography and Environment

Dhaka University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Prof.Dr. Hakim DJERIOUAT, University of Toulouse, France

Prof.Dr. Hi-Ryong BYUN, Pukyong National University, Department of Environmental

Atmospheric Sciences, Busan, South Korea

Prof.Dr. Karolien van NUNEN, University of Antwerpen, Belgium

Prof.Dr. Khanduri SUSHIL, Disaster Mitigation and Management Centre, Department of

Disaster Management, Uttarakhand Secretariat, India

Prof.Dr. Livia NISTOR-LOPATENCO, Faculty of Construction, Geodesy and Cadastre,

Technical University of Moldova

Prof.Dr. Meherrem GASANOV, Institute of Geography, National Academy of Science,

Azerbaijan

Prof.Dr. Menafeddin NAMAZOV, Process Automation Engineering Department, Baku

Engineering University, Azerbaijan

Prof.Dr. Mirzohid SAFAEV, Institute of Ecology and Natural Resources, Ministry of Ecology

and Natural Resources, Uzbekistan

Prof.Dr. Palma ORLOVIC-LEKO, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering

University of Zagreb, Croatia

Prof.Dr. Peter GRABUSTS, Faculty of Engineering, Rezekne Academy of Technologies, Latvia

Prof.Dr. Petros PATIAS, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Faculty of Rural and Surveying

Engineering, Thessaloniki, Greece

Prof.Dr. Roman IBRAGIMOV, Laboratory of Regional Seismicity and Seismic Zoning,

Institute of Seismology, Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan

Prof.Dr. Rza MAHMUDOV, Institute of Hydrometeorology, Ministry of Ecology and Natural

Resources, Azerbaijan

Prof.Dr. Sevinc HAJIYEVA, Faculty of Ecology and Soil Sciences, Department of Ecological

Chemistry, Baku State University

Prof.Dr. Shovgi GEOKCHAYLI, Faculty of Ecology and Soil Sciences, Department of

Geographical Ecology, Baku State University


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Prof.Dr. Suocheng DONG, Lab for Resources Use and Environmental Remediation, Institute of

Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,

China P.R.

Prof.Dr. Sven FUCHS, Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, Austria

Prof.Dr. Thomas GLADE, Geomorphic Systems and Risk Research, Department of Geography

and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Austria

Prof.Dr. Vagif MAMMADOV, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Department of Limnology,

Azerbaijan

Prof.Dr. Valery LESNYKH, GASPROM, Gasnadzor, Moscow, Russia

Prof.Dr. Vesna TUNGUZ, Faculty of Agriculture, University of East Sarajevo, Bosnia and

Herzegovina

Prof.Dr. Vladimir GUREVICH, Central Electrical Laboratory, Israel Electric Corporation,

Haifa, Israel

Prof.Dr. Vladimir NADEIN, OGS –Energodiagnostics, Russia

Dr. Anar AHMEDOV, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Antanas Gustaitis’ Aviation

Institute, Department of Aviation Technologies, Lithuania

Dr. Arkady GRANOVSKIY, Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Russia

Dr. Ayten AHMEDOVA, Department of Emergency Situations and Human Life Safety,

Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction

Dr. Emil GAFAROV, Department of Emergency Situations and Human Life Safety, Azerbaijan

University of Architecture and Construction

Dr. Mohammad OMAR, Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, United Arab Emirates

Dr. Natalia PUZAN, Institute of Radiobiology, National Academy of Science of Belarus

Dr. Stefano VIGNUDELLI, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Pisa, Italy

Dr. Larisa Agaeva, Scientific Research Institute of Antiseismic Construction Ministry of

Construction and Architecture, Turkmenistan


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CHAIRMAN’S MESSAGE

Dear participants!

It’s our pleasure and honor to welcome more than 150 experts from 26 countries of the world at

the First Eurasian Conference on “Innovations in minimization of natural and technological

risks”, 22 – 24 May, 2019, in Baku Azerbaijan.

Events taking place as in Azerbaijan as all over the world feature intensification of global

problems related to provision of complex security of population and territories from natural and

technological emergencies. Over the past 25 years, disasters and technological emergencies in

the world have killed more than 3 million people and over 1 billion have suffered casualties.

Undoubtedly, it takes continuous study and monitoring of risks for population and territories and

search of effective control mechanisms in order to prevent emergencies and minimize their

consequences.

We are pleased that some Eurasian countries have accumulated a considerable work experience

on given topic. Nevertheless, the world scientific community expresses concerns of people and

countries being victims of accidents and disasters, death and suffering, destruction of historical

values. We think that the root cause of emergencies arises from insufficient explanatory work,

estrangement from attempts to warn about and prevent emergencies well as from deficiency of

work done on development of risk minimization systems for natural and anthropogenic

emergencies.

Emergencies remain one of the most serious obstacles on achieving sustainable development of

and establishing security in countries. Therefore, developing means of minimization of disaster

consequences through the analysis of risks and innovative control of them in order to create

possibilities for strengthening the sustainable development of countries, as well as development

of reliable protection of population from emergencies are among the most important social and

government tasks.

With regard to it we address to all scientists and specialists of Eurasian countries to intensify

research of innovative solutions of minimizing natural and technological risks. Taking into

consideration the presence of organic interrelation between the minimization of emergency risks

and sustainable development of the countries it is important to involve all interested parties in

work on analysis, estimation and managements of risks.

We appeal to all interested parties to take an active part in the conference, to share experience

and knowledge, and to contribute to common cause of continent steady progress.

Main purpose of conference:


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to unite scientists and specialists from different fields of knowledge and give them

opportunities to share - information, ideas and innovative solutions in minimization of the

natural and technological risks on Eurasian continent;

to promote knowledge exchange on risks, innovations and advanced technologies of risk

minimization;

to assist with understanding and professional interaction of scientists and organizations to make

joint contribution to the theory and practice of risk analysis and innovative solutions including

protection of population and territories from natural, technological and anthropogenic

emergencies;

to improve cooperation and understanding between entities in the energy (oil, gas, Solar and

wind) industry, and collaboration between the energy industry, research institutions and

academic institutions with regards to energy subjects;

to support Millennium Challenges and Sendai (Japan) Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

2015-2030 under UNO;

to reveal innovations in identifying various kinds of natural and anthropogenic hazards, their

analysis and assessment, indicating ways and methods of administrative solutions that can

provide population dwelling and steady progress of social and economic spheres of Eurasian

continent regions.

We believe “EURASIAN RISK 2019” Conference will contribute to development of innovative

solutions to important problems within analysis, assessment and minimization of natural and

technological risks.

During the conference, the participants will exchange information and experience on these

issues and discuss future plans for close co-operation.

We hope our guests will return to their country with colorful and pleasant impressions about our

country and our city.

With sincere wishes for an effective, successful and productive conference!

On behalf of Organizing Committee,

Prof. Dr. VUGAR ALIYEV

Chair of the Organizing Committee

Director of AMİR Technical Services LLC


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ОБРАЩЕНИЕ ПРЕДСЕДАТЕЛЯ

Дорогие участники!

Для нас большая честь приветствовать более 200 экспертов из 26 стран мира на Первой

Евразийской конференции «Инновации в минимизации природных и технологических

рисков», 22 – 24 мая 2019г., в Баку, Азербайджан.

События, происходящие как в Азербайджане, так и во всем мире, демонстрируют

углубление глобальных проблем, связанных с необходимостью обеспечения комплексной

безопасности населения и территорий от чрезвычайных ситуаций природного, и

техногенного характера. За последние 25 лет в результате стихийных бедствий и

техногенных аварий в мире погибли более 3 миллионов человек и более 1 миллиарда

пострадали. Безусловно, это требует постоянного изучения и мониторинга источников

риска для населения и территорий, а также поиска эффективных механизмов

минимизации их последствий и управления им.

Мы с благодарностью признаем, что некоторые страны Евразийского континента

накопили значительный опыт работы по минимизацию риска чрезвычайных ситуаций

природного и техногенного характера. Тем не менее, мировое научное сообщество

глубоко озабочено тем, что люди и страны продолжают нести значительные потери от

аварий и бедствий, гибнут и страдают люди, уничтожаются бесценные исторические и

материальные ценности. На наш взгляд, причины такого положения связаны с

недостаточной разъяснительной работой с людьми, отчуждением их от задач

предупреждения и ликвидации чрезвычайных ситуаций, а также низкоэффективной

работой по развитию системы минимизации рисков чрезвычайных ситуаций природного

и антропогенного характера.

Чрезвычайные ситуации остаются одним из серьезнейших препятствий на пути к

достижению устойчивого развития и обеспечения безопасности стран. Поэтому решение

проблемы минимизации опасности бедствий через анализ рисков и инновационного

управления ими с целью создания возможностей для обеспечения и усиления

устойчивого развития стран, надежной защиты населения от чрезвычайных ситуаций

является одной из наиболее важных общественно-государственных задач.

С учетом этого мы обращаемся ко всем ученым и специалистам Евразийских стран

усилить инновационные решения по минимизации природных и техногенных опасностей.

Принимая во внимание наличие органической взаимосвязи между минимизацией

опасности чрезвычайных ситуаций и устойчивым развитием страны, мы считаем важным

вовлечение в работу по анализу, оценке рисков и управлению ими всех заинтересованных

сторон.

Настоящим обращением мы призываем все заинтересованные стороны активно

участвовать в конференции, поделиться опытом и знаниями и, внести вклад в общее дело

устойчивого развития континента.

Основными целями конференции являются:


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• объединить ученых и специалистов различных отраслей знаний и предоставить им

возможности обмена информацией, идеями и инновационными решениями минимизации

проблем в области природных и техногенных рисков, на Евразийском континенте;

• способствовать передаче знаний о рисках, инноваций и передовых технологиях

минимизации рисков;

• содействовать пониманию и профессиональному взаимодействию ученых,

специалистов и организаций для совершения общего вклада в теорию и практику анализа

рисков и инновативного решения проблем в области рисков, в том числе, в сфере защиты

населения и территорий от чрезвычайных ситуаций природного, техногенного и

антропогенного характера.

• улучшить сотрудничество и взаимопонимание между субъектами энергетической

(нефтегазовой, солнечной и ветровой) промышленности, а также сотрудничество между

энергетической отраслью, НИИ и академическими учреждениями по вопросам

энергетики.

• поддерживать Вызовы третьего тысячелетия и Сендайскую (Япония) рамочную

программу действий ООН по снижению риска бедствий на 2015–2030гг. в качестве

руководящего базового документа, в котором отражены стратегические цели и

приоритетные направления действий, а также ожидаемые результаты.

• выявить инновации в идентификации различного вида опасностей природного и

антропогенного характера, их анализа и оценки, выявление путей и методов принятия

таких управленческих решений, которые бы обеспечили безопасное проживание

населения и устойчивое развитие социально-экономической сферы различных регионов

Евразийского континента.

Выражаем уверенность в том, что наша конференция внесет свой вклад в решение

важных проблем в области оценки, анализа и минимизации природных и техногенных

рисков.

Во время конференции участники обменяются информацией и опытом по этим вопросам

и обсудят планы на будущее для тесного сотрудничества.

Мы надеемся, что наши гости вернутся в свою страну с красочными и приятными

впечатлениями о нашей стране и нашем городе.

С искренними пожеланиями эффективной, успешной и продуктивной конференции!

От имени Организационного Комитета конференции,

Профессор ВУГАР АЛИЕВ

Председатель Организационного Комитета

Директор Компании AMIR Technical Services

LLC


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AMIR TECHNICAL SERVICES LLC

INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY


REPUBLICAN SEISMIC SURVEY CENTER


INNOVATIONS IN MINIMIZATION

OF NATURAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS

PROGRAM

OF THE FIRST EURASIAN CONFERENCE

“RISK – 2019”

22 – 24 May 2019, Baku, Azerbaijan

Baku – 2019


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OPENING CEREMONY ЦЕРЕМОНИЯ ОТКРЫТИЯ

Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019

8:00 – 9:00 Registration

9:00 – 10:00 Opening Session. Chairman's welcoming speech

10:00 – 10:15 Professor Motoki

KAZAMA,

JAPAN

Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan

- learned from two Great Earthquake Disasters

for recent 30 years

10:15 – 10:30 Dr. Virgilio

ANSELMO,

ITALY

A modeling process for flood-prone areas and

flood-risk assessment

10:30 – 10:45 Dr. Yana

KRUKHMALEVA,

RUSSIA

Automation of the project and risk

management system on the example of PJSC

GAZPROM international investment projects.

Information security and cyber risks

10:45 – 11:30 Coffee break

11:30 – 11:45 Alexander BARINOV,

RUSSIA

GEOBRUGG technologies and expertise to

strengthen any slopes

11:45 – 12:00 Ramiz MAMMADOV,

AZERBAIJAN

Natural hazards in the mountain regions of the

Azerbaijan Republic and these CIS mapping

12:00 – 12:15 Anatolii PAVLENKO,

UKRAINE

Biosafety electronics

12:15 – 12:30 Sabina KAZIMOVA,

AZERBAIJAN

Modeling of the Earth's Crust of the Greater

Caucasus by Seismic Tomography

12:30 – 12:45 Nikolai MAKHUTOV,

RUSSIA

Risk and Industrial Safety

12:45 – 13:00 Vugar ALIYEV,

AZERBAIJAN

Global Transportation Infrastructure and Risk

of Cascading Effects. Case Study: Azerbaijan

13:00 – 14:30 Lunch


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14:30 – 16:00, Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019

Session-1: Technological safety

Сессия-1: Технологическая безопасность

1. Vladimir Gurevich

Protection of Electric Equipment against High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse.

Владимир Гуревич

Защита электрооборудования от высотных электромагнитных импульсов.

2. Michail Lukyanchikov, Valery Lesnykh, Alexander Bochkov

Experience in applying of risk-focused approach to corporate control of PJSC

GAZPROM facilities

Михаил Лукъянчиков, Валерий Лесных, Александр Бочков

Опыт применения риск-ориентированного подхода при осуществлении

корпоративного контроля объектов ПАО ГАЗПРОМ.

3. Motoki Kazama

Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan

- learned from two Great Earthquake Disasters for recent 30 years -

Мотоки Казама

Снижение риска стихийных бедствий в Японии - уроки двух больших

землятрасений за последние 30 лет.

4. Sahiba Kalaeva, Vladimir Makarov, Nadejda Markelova, Ramil Kalaev

Obtaining synthetic magnetite and ferromagnetic fluid from industrial waste to purify

water from petroleum products.

Сахиба Калаева, Владимир Макаров, Надежда Маркелова, Рамиль Калаев

Получение синтетического магнетита и магнитной жидкости из отходов

производства для очистки воды от нефтепродуктов.

5. Vinera Bekbaeva, Galina Metaksa

Innovations in minimizing natural and technological risks in the oil industry.

Винера Бекбаева, Галина Метакса

Инновации в минимизации природных и технологических рисков в нефтяной

промышленности.

6. Ulyana Ivanova,Vladimir Moskvichev

The cause-and-effect regularities of anthropogenic accidents.

Ульяна Иванова, Владимир Москвичов

Причинно-следственные закономерности техногенных катастроф.

7. Vladimir Nadein, Rüshdi Safarov, Oleg Zerkal, Natik Seidakhmedov, Igor Fomenko

Assessment and analysis of risks in the reorientation of old industrial areas for urban

planning and recreational purposes (on example of Baku).

Владимир Надеин, Рушди Сафаров, Олег Зеркал, Натик Сеидахмедов, Игорь

Фоменко

Оценка и анализ рисков при переориентации старых промышленных зон на

градостроительные и рекреационные цели (на примере г. Баку).

8. Oksana Hunchenko

Analysis of the main characteristics of industrial risk.

Оксана Гунченко

Анализ основных характеристик промышленного риска.

9. Yury Karin, Natalya Yurkevich, Igor Yeltsov


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Mine wastes: models of mine tailing facilities inferred from geophysical and

geochemical investigations.

Юрий Карин, Наталья Юркевич, Игорь Ельцов

Отходы шахт: модели хвостохранилищ, выведенные из геофизических и

геохимических исследований.

10. Vladimir Malyshev, Larisa Borisoglebskaia

Intellectual innovation system of technological safety for the oil and gas industry.

Владимир Малышев, Лариса Борисоглебская

Интеллектуальная инновационная система технологической безопасности для

нефтегазовой отрасли.

11. Igor Cheshyk, Halina Hutsava, Mikalai Barysevich

Information-psychological protection of the public in nuclear accidents.

Experience of the Republic of Belarus.

Игорь Чещик, Галина Гуцева, Миколай Барышевич

Информационно-психологическая защита населения при ядерных авариях. Опыт

Республики Беларусь.

12. Fakhraddin Gabibov

Development of innovative technologies to minimize the risks during the construction

and operation of structure on unstable soils.

Фахраддин Габибов

Разработка инновационных технологий для минимизации рисков при

строительстве и эксплуатации конструкций на неустойчивых почвах.

13. Palma Orlović-Leko, Irena Ciglenečki-Jusić, Nevenka Mikac, Ivo Galić, Alojzije

Filipović

Environmental risk associated with water in the abandoned mines.

Палма Орлович-Леко, Ирена Чиглинески-Жусич, Невенка Микас, Иво Галич,

Аложзие Филипович

Экологический риск, связанный с водой в заброшенных шахтах.

14. Ivo Galić, Branimir Farkaš, Ivan Soldo

Risk assessment and possible solutions for certain abandoned mines in the Dinarides

area.

Иво Галич, Бранимир Фаркаш, Иван Солдо

Оценка риска и возможные решения для некоторых заброшенных шахт в районе

Динаридес.

15. Youngcheul Kwon, Yudai Kawamura, Hajime Imanishi

Assessment of post-earthquake ground settlement of clayey soils based on consolidation

settlement potential.

Джонг Чеул Квон, Юдаи Кавамура, Хаиме Иманиши

Оценка состояния грунтовых поселений после землетрясения на глинистых почвах

с учетом консолидационного расчетного потенциала.

16. Gennadiy Shmal', Vladimir Nadein, Nikolai Makhutov

Development of safety principles and criteria on offshore hydrocarbon facilities and

infrastructures.

Геннадий Шмаль, Владимир Надеин, Николай Махутов

Разработка принципов и критериев безопасности на морских углеводородных

объектах и инфраструктурах.

17. Nikolai Makhutov, Aleksandr Rybas, Vladimir Nadein

Scientific support of the basis of state policy in the field of industrial safety.

Николай Махутов, Александр Рыбась, Владимир Надеин


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Научное сопровождение основ государственной политики в области

промышленной безопасности.

18. Eugeny Gumennikov, Nikolai Buktukov, Gulzada Mashataeva

Exclusion of the risks of injury in the release of the mountain mass from cleaning blocks

and bunkers.

Евгений Гуменников, Николай Буктуков, Гульзада Машатаева

Исключение рисков травматизма при выпуске горной массы из очистных блоков и

бункеров.

19. Anna Gumenyuk, Inna Nikonorova, Marina Vishnevskaya

Stability and risk in recreational development of the coast of the Cheboksary and

Kuibyshev reservoirs.

Анна Гуменьюк, Инна Никонорова, Марина Вишневская

Устойчивость и риск в рекреационном развитии побережья Чебоксарского и

Куйбышевского водохранилищ.

20. Yana Krukhmaleva

Automation of the project and risk management system on the example of PJSC

GAZPROM International investment projects. The latest software for risk analysis of the

Russian manufacturers. Information security of PJSC GAZPROM.

Яна Крухмалева

Автоматизация системы управления проектами и рисками на примере

международных инвестиционных проектов ГАЗПРОМ. Новейшее программное

обеспечение для анализа рисков Российского производителя. Информационная

безопасность ПАО ГАЗПРОМ.

21. Andrew Botviniev

Russian transport network-bridge between Europe and Asia.

Андрей Ботвиньев

Российская транспортная сеть-мост между Европой и Азией.

22. Nikolay Zapivalov

Risks and uncertainties in the Petroleum Sector.

Nikolai Zapivalov

Риски и неопределенности в нефтяном секторе.

23. Igor Hadjamberdiev, Rustam Tukhvatshin, Ibragimjon Domulajanov

Central Asia old tailings: mutual risk factors.

Игорь Хаджамбердыев, Рустам Тукватшин, Ибрагимджон Домулажанов

Старые отходы Центральной Азии: факторы взаимного риска.

24. Eugeny Telenkov

The experience of Norilsk Nickel: Model of management of technical and production

risks.

Евгений Теленков

Опыт Норильского никеля: Модель управления технико-производственными

рисками.

25. Vugar Aliyev

Deformation of riverbed of Kura river as a factor of emergency situation in oil- and gas-

transport systems.

Вугар Алиев

Деформация русла реки Куры как фактор чрезвычайной ситуации в

нефтегазотранспортных системах.

26. Ayten Akhmedova, Islam Mustafaev


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The formation of specific effective activity of natural radionuclides in building materials

and products.

Айтен Ахмедова, Ислам Мустафаев

Формирование удельной эффективной активности природных радионуклидов в

строительных материалах и изделиях.

17:00 – 18:30, Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019

Session-2: Natural emergency situations

Сессия-2: Природные чрезвычайные ситуации

1. Daya Shanker

Earthquake risk evaluation in Western Himalaya, India - a scenario report.

Дая Шанкер

Оценка риска землетрясения в Западных Гималаях, Индия – отчет сценарий.

2. Sharpuddin Zaurbekov, Luiza Bekmurzaeva, T Ozdieva

The use of GIS technologies in assessing the exposure of the territory of the Chechen

Republic to dangerous natural processes and phenomena

Шарпуддин Заурбеков, Луиза Бекмурзаева, Оздиева Т.Х Применение ГИС-

технологий при оценке подверженности территории Чеченской Республики

опасным природным процессам и явлениям.

3. Nigora Fayzibaeva

Water resources of Uzbekistan: problems and solutions

Нигора Фейзибаева

Водные ресурсы Узбекистана: проблемы и пути решения.

4. Akhmetkal Medeu, Viktor Blagoveshenskiy, Maulken Askarova, Tamara Gulyayeva,

Alikhan Medeu, Sandugash Ranova

Mudflow Risk Management Experience in Kazakhstan

Ахметкал Медеу, Виктор Благовещенский, Маулкен Аскарова, Тамара Гуляева,

Алихан Медеу, Сандугаш Ранова

Опыт управления селевым риском в Казахстане.

5. Aliakbar Rasouli, Kevin Cheung and Hanieh Mobasher

Highlighting Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Events

Applying a GIS-Oriented Approach Inside the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area

Алиакбар Расули, Кэвин Чэнг, Хание Мобашер

Выделение широко грозовых событий с применением ГИС-ориентированного

подхода в районе Большого Сиднея.

6. Gurban Yetirmishli, Sabina Kazimova

Seismicity of Azerbaijan for the period 2012-2019 yy.

Гурбан Етирмишли, Сабина Казимова

Сейсмичность Азербайджана за период 2012-2019 гг.

7. Adil Aliyev

Mud volcanoes of Azerbaijan: ecological problems and

environmental risk assessment.

Адиль Алиев

Грязевые вулканы Азербайджана: экологические проблемы и

оценка экологических рисков.

8. Jafar Niyazov, Ali Fazilov, Mirzo Saidov

The GIS and remote sensing in the monitoring of debris flow effects in Tajikistan.

Джафар Ниязов, Али Фазилов, Мирзо Саидов


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ГИС и дистанционное зондирование в мониторинге воздействия селевого потока в

Таджикистане.

9. Larisa Agaeva, Emil Esenov

Issues of assessment and zoning of seismic danger in Turkmenistan.

Лариса Агаева, Эмиль Эсенов

Вопросы оценки и районирования сейсмической опасности в Туркменистане.

10. Avaz Salamov, Vagif Mammadov, Hadiya Khalilova

Formation of sliding processes in the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan and their

threats (case study: the Absheron Peninsula).

Аваз Саламов, Вагиф Мамедов, Хадийя Халилова

Формирование процессов скольжения на территории Азербайджанской

Республики и их угрозы (на примере Апшеронского полуострова).

11. Mikhail Faleev, Nikolai Makhutov, Evgeny Kozlov

Understanding the risks of disaster reduction.

Михаил Фалеев, Николай Махутов, Евгений Козлов

Проблемы понимания рисков снижения стихийных бедствий.

12. Evgeniy Sherzhukov, Dmitriy Morozov

Experience of creating a monitoring system of dangerous hydrological phenomena in the

territory of Krasnodar region.

Евгений Шержуков, Дмитрий Морозов

Опыт создания системы мониторинга опасных гидрологических явлений на

территории Краснодарской области.

13. Merab Gongadze, George Lominadze, George Khomeriki

Natural disaster exodynamic processes and events in Georgia.

Мераб Гонгадзе, Георгий Ломинадзе, Георгий Хомерики

Стихийнные экзодинамические процессы и явления в Грузии.

14. Olga Taseiko, Daria Chernykh

The relative risks for population health in Krasnoyarsk city caused by cold weather.

Ольга Тасейко, Дарья Черных

Относительные риски для здоровья населения в городе Красноярске, вызванные

холодной погодой.

15. Tatiana Kuderina

Atmospheric geochemical risks in strengthening the processes of natural desertification

and anthropogenic land degradation in southern Russia.

Татьяна Кудерина

Атмосферные геохимические риски при усилении процессов природного

опустынивания и антропогенной деградации земель юга России.

16. Kamchibek Kojogulov, Aichurok Toktogulova, Gulnara Kabaeva, Tabaldy Jumaev

About one method of protection from mudflows.

Камчибек Кожогулов, Айчурок Токтогулова, Гулнара Кабаева, Табалды Жумаев

Об одном способе защиты от селевых потоков.

17. Kamchibek Kojogulov, Aichurok Toktogulova, Gulnara Kabaeva, Tabaldy Jumaev

The way to eliminate ice jams on the rivers of Kyrgyzstan.

Камчибек Кожогулов, Айчурок Токтогулова, Гулнара Кабаева, Табалды Жумаев

Способ ликвидации заторов льда на реках Кыргызстана.

18. Emil Bournaski, Ivan Ivanov, Galia Bardarska, Svilen Borisov, Olga Nicheva, Aleksey


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Benderev, Tatiana Orehova, Vladimir Hristov, Petar Gerginov, Neli Hristova, Polia

Dobreva, Ivan Penkov

Scientific program of Republic of Bulgaria for environmental protection and reducing

the risk of negative phenomena and natural disasters.

Эмиль Боурнаский, Иван Иванов, Галия Бардарска, Свилен Борисов, Ольга

Ничева, Алексей Бендерев, Татьяна Орехова, Владимир Христов, Петар Гергинов,

Нелли Христова, Полья Добрева, Иван Пенков

Научная программа Республики Болгария по охране окружающей среды и

снижению риска негативных явлений и стихийных бедствий.

19. Rza Mahmudov, Vugar Aliyev

Global climate change and its impact on hydrometeorological condition in Azerbaijan.

Рза Махмудов, Вугар Алиев

Глобальное изменение климата и его влияние на гидрометеорологическое

состояние в Азербайджане.

20. Emil Bayramov, Ramiz Mammadov, Rafael Bayramov, Saida Aliyeva

Quantitative prediction and mitigation of landslides and erosion risks using GIS and

remote sensing.

Эмиль Байрамов, Рамиз Мамедов, Рафаэль Байрамов, Саида Алиева

Количественное прогнозирование и снижение риска оползней и эрозии с

использованием ГИС и дистанционного зондирования.

21. Ramiz Mammadov

Natural hazards in the mountain regions of the Azerbaijan Republic and these CIS

mapping.

Рамиз Мамедов

Стихийные бедствия в горных районах Азербайджанской Республики и их ГИС

картографировании.

22. Eberhard Gröner, Armin Roduner

Slope stabilization and erosion protection in a single operation.

Эберхард Грёнер, Армин Родунер

Стабилизация склона и защита от эрозии за одну операцию.

23. Corinna Wendeler, Eberhard Gröner, Alexander Barinov, Matthias Denk

Ten years’ experience in flexible debris flow barriers.

Каринна Вэндэлер, Эберхард Грёнер, Александр Баринов, Маттиас Денк

Десять лет опыта в области гибких барьеров для селевого потока.

10:00 – 13:00, Thursday, May 23rd, 2019

Session-3: Complex Safety

Сессия-3: Комплексная безопасность

1. Arkady Granovskiy, Bulat Dzgamuev, Oleg Simakov, Daria Lvova

The use carbon fiber and carbon mesh to increase the seismic resistance of masonry

buildings.

Аркадий Грановский, Булат Дзгамуев, Олег Симаков, Дарья Львова

Использование углеродного волокна и углеродной сети для повышения

сейсмического сопротивления каменных зданий.

2. Irina Malneva

Operational forecasts to minimize the natural and man-made risks of hazardous

geological processes.

Ирина Мальнева


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Оперативные прогнозы для минимизации природных и техногенных рисков

опасных геологических процессов.

3. Anatolii Pavlenko

How to neutralize biopathogenic and technopathogenic radiation on humans

Анатолий Павленко

Как нейтрализовать биопатогенное и технопатогенное излучение на человека.

4. Nigora Talipova

Issues of food security while minimizing natural risks.

Нигора Талипова

Вопросы обеспечения продовольственной безопасности в условиях минимизации

природных рисков.

5. Irina Glinyanova

Holistic Approach to Phytomonitoring in the System of Ecological Safety of Urban

Areas.

Инна Глинянова

Целостный подход к фитомониторингу в системе экологической безопасности

городских территорий.

6. Nadira Mavlyanova

Development of cooperation of NIS countries for mitigation of natural and

technological risk.

Надира Мавлянова

Развитие сотрудничества стран СНГ по снижению природных и техногенных

рисков.

7. Vladimir Moskvichev

Comprehensive assessment of the natural and man-made safety of Siberian regions.

Владимир Москвичов

Комплексная оценка природной и техногенной безопасности регионов Сибири.

8. Bahman Amiri

Caring of the shape of change in our landscape: from hydrological context into

landscape planning one.

Бахман Амири

Забота о форме изменений в нашем ландшафте: от гидрологического контекста до

ландшафтного планирования.

9. Fakhraddin Gabibov, Arzu Zeynalov

Choice of innovative risk management measures at industrial facilities within complex

topography with landslide hazard.

Фахраддин Габибов, Арзу Зейналов

Выбор инновационных мер по управлению рисками на промышленных объектах в

сложной топографии с опасностью оползня.

10. Fakhraddin Gabibov, Aydin Huseynov

The main economic and administrative barriers affecting a high level of risks in the

commercialization of innovations.

Фахраддин Габибов, Айдын Гусейнов

Основные экономические и административные барьеры, влияющие на высокий

уровень рисков при коммерциализации инноваций.

11. Valdemaras Makutėnas. Assessing the impact of environmental tax revenue on

environmental pollution in European countries.

Вальдемарас Макутенас


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Оценка воздействия налога на загрязнение окружающей среды в Европейских

странах.

12. Daiva Makutėnienė

Factors affecting crop insurance: The case of Lithuania

Дайва Макутениене

Факторы, влияющие на страхование урожая: случай Литвы.

13. Irina Rudaya, Boris Anikin

Risks and opportunities of the cross-border e-Commerce development in the context of

the new customs legislation of the Eurasian Customs Union and the Russian Federation.

Ирина Рудая, Борис Аникин

Риски и возможности развития трансграничной электронной торговли в контексте

нового таможенного законодательства Евразийского таможенного союза и

Российской Федерации.

14. Anna Fedotova, Lyudmila Yakovleva, Elena Loktionova

The environmental component of the integrated security of the Caspian macro-region.

Анна Федотова, Людмила Яковлева, Елена Локтионова

Экологическая составляющая комплексной безопасности Каспийского

макрорегиона.

15. Vadim Plyushchikov, Vladimir Avdotin, Vladislav Plyushchikov, Mirashraf Fatiev

The influence of the combined effect of negative factors: heavy metals, pesticides,

radionuclides, etc. - in the soils of urban agglomerations to ensure their key functions

and ecosystem services.

Вадим Плющиков, Владимир Авдотьин, Владислав Плющиков, Мирашраф

Фатиев

Влияние комбинированного воздействия негативных факторов: тяжелых

металлов, пестицидов, радионуклидов и т. д. - на почвы городских агломераций

для обеспечения их основных функций и экосистемных услуг.

16. Irena Ciglenečki, Milan Čanković, Jelena Dautović, Marija Marguš, Ivica Janeković

Changes in the environment: Importance of long-term monitoring.

Ирена Чиглинески, Милан Чанкович, Елена Даутович, Мария Маргус, Ивица

Джанекович

Изменения в окружающей среде: важность долгосрочного мониторинга.

17. Yuliia Kvach

Risk management at the piloting stage.

Юлия Квач

Управление рисками на этапе пилотирования.

18. Vladimir Avdotin, Aleksandr Kononov, Vadim Plyushchikov, Julia Avdotina, Vladislav

Plyushchikov

On the causes and consequences of cognitive distortions in assessing the significance

and role of civilization factors in risk and safety management.

Владимир Авдотьин, Александр Кононов, Вадим Плющиков, Юлия Авдотьина,

Владислав Плющиков

О причинах и последствиях когнитивных нарушений в оценке значимости и роли

цивилизационных факторов в управлении рисками и безопасностью.

19. Givi Gavardashvili

Disasters resilience of infrastructure to natural and human-caused hazards.

Гиви Гавардашвили

Устойчивость инфраструктуры к стихийным бедствиям и антропогенным

воздействиям.


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20. Vesna Tunguz, Ljiljana Nesic, Otilija Miseckaite

Zalomka-underground stream and Eastern Hercegovina soils.

Весна Тунгуз, Льйиляна Неич, Отилижа Мисекаите

Заломка - подземный ручей и почвы Восточной Герцеговины.

21. Vladimir Belozerov, Vyacheslav Vorotilov, Pavel Obukhov

Adaptation of the method of rapid analysis of liquid packaged products for recognition

of counterfeit alcohol.

Владимир Белозеров, Вячеслав Воротилов, Павел Обухов

Адаптация метода экспресс-анализа жидких упакованных продуктов для

распознавания контрафактного алкоголя.

22. Lia Matchavariani, Giorgi Metreveli, Zaza Gulashvili

Integrate management of water reservoirs problems.

Лия Мачавариани, Георгий Метревели, Заза Гулашвили

Комплексное управление проблемами водохранилищ.

23. Ramiz Mammadov, Khosiyat Ismatova, Natavan Jafarova

Experience of using space technologies to minimize the risk of natural and man-made

disasters in Azerbaijan.

Рамиз Мамедов, Хосият Исматова, Натаван Джафарова

Опыт применения космических технологий для минимизации риска природных

и техногенных катастроф в Азербайджане.

24. Seymur Mammadov, Emil Gafarov

About the condition of physical stability of the Mingechevir dam.

Сеймур Мамедов, Эмиль Гафаров

О состоянии физической устойчивости Мингечевирской плотины.

25. Vugar Aliyev

Water supply and global critical infrastructure of Azerbaijan: Interdepencies and

interactions.


Водоснабжение и глобальная критическая инфраструктура Азербайджана:

взаимозависимости и взаимодействия.

26. Aliona Tihon The global problem of natural and man-made disasters.

Алёна Тихон

Глобальная проблема природных и техногенных катастроф.

27. Ahmed Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, Denys Dutykh

Nonlinear deformation and run-up of tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical

simulations and analytical predictions.

14:30 – 18:00, Thursday, May 23rd, 2019

Session-4: Modeling of Processes, Assessment and Minimization of Risks

Сессия-4: Моделирование процессов, оценка и минимизация рисков

1. Valery Lesnykh, Tatiana Timofeeva

Classification and modeling of intersystem accidents for infrastructure-complex areas.

Валерий Лесных, Татьяна Тимофеева

Классификация и моделирование межсистемных аварий для инфраструктурно-

сложных территорий.


24

2. Elena Patrusheva, Elena Lifanova

Innovation projects risks monitoring when achieving company’s strategic targets.

Елена Патрушева, Елена Лифанова

Мониторинг рисков инновационных проектов при достижении стратегических

целей компании.

3. Yeraly Shokbarov

Assessment of seismic risk in Almaty.

Ералы Шокбаров

Оценка сейсмического риска в Алматы.

4. Mikhail Lebedev, Kirill Romanevich

Natural and industrial risk assessment and forecasting at the project phase of the Second

Severo-Muysky Tunnel.

Михаил Лебедев, Кирилл Романевич

Оценка и прогнозирование природных и промышленных рисков на этапе

реализации проекта второго Северо-Муйского тоннеля.

5. Mikhail Lebedev, Vladimir Maslak, Konstantin Bezrodny, Yury Isaev

Natural and industrial risks minimization in the course of operation of Sochi Olympic

Tunnels.

Михаил Лебедев, Владимир Маслак, Константин Безродный, Юрий Исаев

Минимизация природных и промышленных рисков при эксплуатации

Олимпийских тоннелей в Сочи.

6. Jafar Niyazov, Mirzo Saidov, Majid Gulayozov, Mustafo Safarov, Sukhbatullo Saidov

The challenges of sustainable solution for reducing risk levels in the Sarez lake area,

Tajikistan.

Джафар Ниязов, Мирзо Саидов, Маджид Гулаязов, Мустафо Сафаров, Сухбатулло

Саидов

Проблема устойчивого решения для снижения уровней риска в районе Сарезского

озера, Таджикистан.

7. Fakhraddin Gabibov, Yerali Shokbarov, Huseyn Bayat

On the introduction of technical innovations to reduce risk in development of territories

with high seismicity.

Фахраддин Габибов, Ералы Шокбаров, Гусейн Баят

О внедрении технических инноваций для снижения рисков при освоении

территорий с повышенной сейсмичностью.

8. Tetiana Tkachenko, Olena Voloshkina

“Green structures” as a tool for reducing the environmental risks of urban ecosystems.

Тетиана Ткаченко, Олёна Волошкина

«Зеленые структуры» как инструмент снижения экологических рисков городских

экосистем.

9. Virgilio Anselmo

A modeling process for flood-prone areas and flood-risk assessment.

Виргилио Анселмо

Процесс моделирования для подверженных наводнениям территорий и оценка

риска наводнений.

10. Olga Herasimenko, Michael Lazarenko

Evaluation of magnitudes and parameters of earthquake earth in quasireal time scale by

neural network modeling.

Ольга Герасименко, Михаил Лазаренко


25

Оценка магнитуд и параметров землетрясения Земли в квазиреальном масштабе

времени с помощью моделирования нейронной сети.

11. Nikolay Petrov, Inna Nikonorova, Nadezhda Prokopyeva

Compliance of the computational model with the components of the natural-man-made

system is the most important condition for risk minimizing.

Николай Петров, Инна Никонорова, Надежда Прокофьева

Соответствие вычислительной модели компонентам природно-антропогенной

системы является важнейшим условием минимизации природных и техногенных

рисков.

12. Karina Alenina, Nikolay Akatov, Dmitriy Bryukhanov

Modeling of an enterprise management competence-based capacity development in the

context of a modern risk management paradigm.

Карина Алёнина, Николай Акатов, Дмитрий Брюханов

Моделирование развития потенциала управления предприятием на основе

современной парадигмы управления рисками.

13. Dmitry Abrosimov, Valery Belozerov, Maxim Filimonov

Model of split systems for fire and explosion protection of apartments

of multi-storey buildings and individual houses.

Дмитрий Абросимов, Валерий Белозеров, Максим Филимонов

Модель сплит систем противопожарной и взрывобезопасности квартир

многоэтажных домов и индивидуальных домов.

14. Rumella Jafarova

Risk assessment methods for a construction company.

Румелла Джафарова

Методы оценки рисков для строительной компании.

15. Gurban Yetirmishli, Sabina Kazimova

Modeling of the Earth’s crust of the Greater Caucasus by seismic tomography.


Моделирование земной коры Большого Кавказа методом сейсмической

томографии.

16. Leszek Kuchar

Risk estimation of high river flows for future climate.

Лесзек Кучар

Оценка риска высоких речных потоков для будущего климата.

17. Samira Akbarova

Minimization of fire risks in ventilated facade systems of buildings.

Самира Акбарова

Минимизация пожароопасности в вентилируемых фасадных системах зданий.

18. Shakir Mamedov, Tukezban Hasanova, Tural Mammedli

Experimental research of dynamic parameters of multi-storey buildings at vibrating

seismic loadings.

Шакир Мамедов, Тукезбан Гасанова, Турал Маммедли

Экспериментальное исследование динамических параметров многоэтажных зданий

при вибрационных сейсмических нагрузках.

19. Tamaz Chelidze, Nodar Varamashvili, Zurab Chelidze, Tengiz Kiria, Nugzar Ghlonti,

Jemal Kiria

Landslide monitoring and early warning multifunctional system.

Тамаз Челидзе, Нодар Варамашвили, Зураб Челидзе, Тенгиз Кириа, Нугзар Глонти,


26

Джемал Кириа

Многофункциональная система мониторинга оползней и раннего предупреждения.

20. Ekaterina Buldakova, Vyacheslav Zaikanov, Tatiana Minakova

Geo-environmental aspects of safe urban planning.

Екатерина Булдакова, Вячеслав Заиканов, Татьяна Минакова

Геоэкологические аспекты планирования безопасных городов.

21. Sabina Magerramova

On reducing the safety risks of water facilities.

Сабина Магеррамова

О снижении рисков безопасности водохозяйственных объектов.

22. Sabina Magerramova

Modeling of emergency situations at water facilities.


Моделирование аварийных ситуаций на водохозяйственных объектах.

Friday, May 24, 2019. Cultural Programme


27

Technological safety

Технологическая безопасность

Protection of Electric Equipment against High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse

Vladimir Gurevich

Central Electric Laboratory, Israel Electric Corp., Haifa 31000, POB 10, Israel

Some 20-30 years ago the concept of High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) resulting

from the high-altitude (30 – 400 km) explosion of a nuclear charge, was only mentioned in the

brochures on civil defense. Military men were well informed about this effect of nuclear

explosion; however, information on this topic was strictly confidential. It was pretty sound at

that time, considering technical obstructions and expenses related to obtaining of this

information. However, this resulted in the fact that until recently civil specialists working in

different fields of engineering science had no idea (and some of them are not aware even now)

about this phenomenon and the danger that it may pose.

Meanwhile, modern trends of engineering development, resulting in wide-spread use of

microelectronics, microprocessors, PCs, quick improvement of microprocessors' capacity

accompanied by sharp increase of micro-transistors count per a unit of volume, reduction of

operation voltage and insulation level between internal elements and the layers in a crystal, lead

to sharp increase of susceptibility of modern equipment to HEMP and stimulated interest of

army men to use HEMP as a self-sufficient and very efficient type of weapon. Now it becomes

clear that HEMP is an ideal non-lethal weapon capable to destroy the infrastructure of the

enemy almost completely without hecatomb, if a nuclear weapon is exploded at high altitude.

This has inspired the military men so much that they ordered development of purely

electromagnetic weapon was underway, where powerful electromagnetic emission affecting

modern microelectronic and microprocessor-based systems is generated by non-nuclear source.

Electromagnetic bombs, shells, grenades and missiles with electromagnetic war-heads, mobile

units on wheel or track chassis that generate powerful directed electromagnetic radiation capable

to destroy electronic equipment from large distances are not science fiction anymore, but

contemporary realities.

Unfortunately, these realities are still not broadly addressed by specialists of many field of

engineering science, particularly those in the field of electric energy industry. Indeed, electric

energy is the foundation of a country's infrastructure, without which neither water supply system

nor communication or any other vital system can operate.

More than 400 pages on the phenomenon, known to military specialist only described in the new

book from De Gruyter publishing house: “Protection of Electric Equipment. Good Practices for

Preventing High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse Impacts”, 2019.

The difference of this book from all previous publications on this topic is that it describes

practical technical engineering solutions for protection against electromagnetic pulse, and not

theoretical reasoning, as it has been until now.

This book is a first practical guide for engineers and technicians about electromagnetic pulse

that has not yet been on the book market.


28


GAZPROM facilities

Michail Lukyanchikov1, Valery Lesnykh1, Alexander Bochkov1, 1 LLC GAZPROM Gaznadzor, Moscow, Novocheremuchkiskaya Str.65, Russian Federation

In recent years in the Russian Federation the risk – focused approach actively applies into

activity of the controlling organizations. This approach represents a method of the organization

and implementation of corporate control of industrial objects at which the choice of intensity

(forms, durations, frequency) holding actions for control, actions for prevention of derogations

from mandatory requirements is defined by reference of activity of the controlled organizations

and the industrial objects used by them at implementation of such activity to a certain risk

category or a certain class (category) of danger. For optimum use of the human, material and

financial resources involved at implementation of control actions, and increases in effectiveness

of activity of LLC “GAZPROM gaznadzor” since 2018 are used by risk - focused approach

when planning inspection control activity on industrial objects of PJSC GAZPROM. Planning of

actions is carried out on the basis of forecasting of undercontol risk subjects of check by

generalization, the analysis and assessment of retrospective data on accidents, incidents and

incidents on objects of check, information on quantity and effectiveness of inspection control

actions. This type of risk is understood as the indicator of subsidiary of PJSC GAZPROM

characterizing uncertainty degree at assessment of its importance for corporate control,

infrastructure and life support of fuel and energy complex as a part of which it functions. The

undercontrol risk defines a rank of structural division of subsidiary of PJSC GAZPROM in the

ordered list and is used for formation of the plan of control inspection actions. Methods of the

multicriteria theory of usefulness are the basis for an algorithm of assessment of undercontrol

risk. The risk size of structural division of PJSC GAZPROM depends on category of consumers

(including foreign) and topology of their placement in the region which functioning is

influenced by decline in production of objects of PJSC GAZPROM, criticalities of the ranged

structural division of subsidiary of PJSC GAZPROM, "quality of the environment" in which the

ranged structural division of subsidiary of PJSC GAZPROM, vulnerabilities (to sanctions of the

public supervisory authorities and body of corporate control) the ranged structural division of

subsidiary of PJSC GAZPROM and also from correction and weight factors functions. In the

report examples of assessment of undercontrol risk and results of ranging of subjects of control

inspection activity are given.


29

Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan - learned from two Great

Earthquake Disasters for recent 30 years

Motoki Kazama Tohoku University, 980-8579, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan

On May 1st in 2019, the name of an era in Japan changed from Heisei to Reiwa. Heisei continued for

about 30 years from 1989. For these 30 years, Japan experienced two great earthquake disasters. One is

Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster, and the other is Great East Japan earthquake disaster. In this

lecture, based on these experiences, it is introduced what is the most important for earthquake disaster

risk reduction.

Inland type M7.3 earthquake occurred in January 17th at 5:43 in early morning, 1995. The earthquake

occurred just below the modern city and caused serious damage to human life and urban infrastructure,

such as traffic facilities and life lines. Over 6000 people was died by collapse of the residential house and

buildings caused by extremely large seismic motion. Unfortunately, the Japanese government failed to

respond to the initial response, because there were few strong motion stations, it was not possible to

immediately grasp what happened at a location 500 km away from Tokyo. This earthquake led to the

development of strong motion observation networks located approximately 20 km apart.

The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, offshore type earthquake with extreme large

magnitude 9.0, occurred in March, 2011. Great East Japan Earthquake disaster brought by this

earthquake inflicted catastrophic damage on Japan, particularly over a wide region in east Japan.

According to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, the dead person reaches 19,667 including

earthquake disaster-related death [1]. Economic loss estimated by Japanese government was 236 billion

dollars. Kazama and Noda [2] summarized damage statistics of the earthquake. The main cause of many

deaths is the tsunami. Japan had past tsunami experiences, but it has not been successfully transmitted to

the generation after the generation.

From the Although 8 years have passed since then, rehabilitation work is still ongoing in the pollution

area of the nuclear power plant accident. This is almost certainly because current de-sign standards and

codes, many of which are based on experience, are able to evaluate effectively those phenomena that

occur within the limits of pre-assumed conditions but will generally be of no help in the case of

phenomena that occur outside such assumed conditions.

From the experiences of the two earthquake disasters, here, I would like to point out the following two

important points as a necessary preparation in advance for the government to do.

(1) Risk awareness: Correctly understand the source of disaster. It is also necessary to aware that

unexpected disasters may occur. Don't neglect that prior preparation.

(2) Disaster information: In the event of a disaster, it is necessary to establish in advance a system for

obtaining a lot of correct information quickly.

REFERENCES

[1] Fire and Disaster Management Agency of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and

Communications, http://www.fdma.go.jp/bn/higaihou/pdf/jishin/158.pdf, (In Japanese).

[2] M. Kazama and T. Noda: Damage statistics (Summary of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of

Tohoku Earthquake damage), Soils and Foundations, Vol. 52, No.5, 2012, pp.780-792.

doi.org/10.1016/j.sandf.2012.11.003 .


30

Obtaining synthetic magnetite and ferromagnetic fluid from industrial waste to

purify water from petroleum products

Sahiba Kalaeva, Vladimir Makarov, Nadejda Markelova, Ramil Kalaev Yaroslavl State Technical University, 150023 Yaroslavl, Russia

Magnetite is the most popular magnetically soft ferromagnetic material. However, due to its

intensive use in various areas, the reserves of natural magnetite found in erupted rock are on the

decline at an accelerated rate, especially in foreign regions. Therefore, it is very important to

study the possibility of obtaining magnetite from iron-containing industrial waste.

We obtained synthetic magnetite in various ways:

1. chemical condensation with waste containing Fe3+ and waste containing Fe2+;

2. electrochemical process, when the main process at the anode is the reaction of dissolution of

iron waste (an electrode made out of scraps or iron filings);

3. high temperature recovery of iron-containing industrial waste (galvanic sludge).

The magnetite obtained by these three methods was used to obtain ferromagnetic fluids (FF)

which are a suspension of nano-dispersed particles of a magnetic material (magnetite) of about

5-100 nm stabilized in the carrier liquid. FF could have quite a wide range of applications;

however, its use is limited by its very high cost (about $1,000 per liter) because the dispersed

phase of FF (magnetite) is made of reactive materials. Therefore, the synthesis of magnetite

from waste that already exists in larger quantities would not only reduce the anthropogenic

impact on the environment but also the cost of ferromagnetic fluid, thus expanding its scope of

application.

The obtained ferromagnetic fluids were used to remove petroleum products from the water

surface.

There is a method of water purification from petroleum products using ferromagnetic fluids

which cleans the water from the petroleum products much better. With this method, FF is

sprayed through special spray devices over an oil film (OF), and the "magnetized" petroleum

products are collected with an electromagnetic device. For this purpose, kerosene-based FF is

more suitable. Such treatment technology requires to use large amounts of ferromagnetic fluid.

The high cost of industrial ferromagnetic fluids made from "clean" raw materials is one of the

factors impeding wide spread of the environmental technology mentioned above. It is

economically feasible to replace the ferromagnetic fluid synthesized from the "clean" raw

materials with a similar material obtained from the recycling of harmful industrial waste.

The results of the study showed that the most appropriate treatment parameters with an OF layer

up to 10 mm thick are: FF:OF ratio = 1:7, wait time after spraying FF – 5-7 minutes, drum

rotation speed with permanent magnets to collect "magnetized": OF – 30 rpm. The treatment

efficiency is 90-96%. The residual concentration of OF in water is no more than 8-10 mg/dm3

compared to the existing industrial oil separators – 50-70 mg/dm3, and flotators – 20-30

mg/dm3.

Thus, we found a source of magnetite, which is large iron-containing waste. We developed the

technology of obtaining cheap ferromagnetic fluids, and this technology expands the ways to

use them in areas that require a lot of them; for example, to treat water from oil products.


31


Vinera Bekbaeva1, Galina Metaksa2

1Eurasian Agrarian College, 050000, Almaty, Kazakhstan 2Institute of Mining. D.A. Kunaev, 050000, Almaty, Kazakhstan

The paper provides a rationale for the restoration of small-scale polluted land. A method for

their recultivation using water and activated magnetic quartz is proposed.

The most important task of environmental protection in the development of oil fields is the

cleaning and disposal of industrial waste, which not only pollutes the soil, removes vast

territories with their fauna and flora from the natural state, but also pollutes the ground and

surface waters. All this has a detrimental effect on the health of people living in this region and

does not contribute to the sustainable development of our society.

The total land area in the region, taken out of circulation as a result of pollution is 3.8 thousand

hectares. Production waste resulting from the development of oil and gas fields and the storage

and transportation of hydrocarbons has a great influence on the state of land resources. Oil

polluted land in the Atyrau region, where the studied OGDU is located “Dossormunaygas”, at

the end of 2014, there were 3,844,576 hectares, of which by the end of 2015 only 261.94

hectares were reclaimed. According to available data, the depth of petrochemical soil pollution

at fields varies from a few centimeters to several meters. On the polluted lands, soil salinization

occurs, litters form, the process of desertification develops [1, 2].

Soil contamination by oil, in addition to its direct impact, can lead to excessive accumulation in

soils of heavy metals contained in oil - zinc, copper, lead, etc.

To achieve this goal in the work solved the following tasks:

- analysis of the current state of the environment in the region and existing methods for

reducing the harmful effects of oil producing industries on the environment;

- study of the capabilities and properties of magnetic powder for cleaning oil waste (sludge

collectors, oil contaminated soils, oil spills).

Developed theoretical basis for the treatment of small-scale contamination:

- the catalytic activity of water with respect to the quartz-containing magnetic powder linearly

depends on its concentration;

- the concentration ratio of the magnetic adsorbent and the spilled oil in a ratio of 1: 10.

The practical significance of the work is as follows:

- for small-scale pollution, an energy-saving method for the elimination of pollution using

magnetic quartz has been proposed;

- The results of research on the development of proposals and methods to reduce the negative

impact of oil production waste on the environment, presented in the thesis, can be practically

applied under production conditions.


32

The cause-and-effect regularities of anthropogenic accidents

Ulyana Ivanova1,2,Vladimir Moskvichev1,2

1Institute of computational technologies SB RAS,660049, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

2Siberian Federal University,660041, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

Analysis of the retrospective for natural and anthropogenic emergencies allows us to identify

the main groups of risks specific to certain territorial entities and subjects of the Russian

Federation. On this basis, the analysis of territorial development risks is carried out with the

identification of hazard factors and sources, quantitative values of emerging and regulatory risk

levels. This statement of research for cause-and-effect relations of risks formation is considered

on the example of municipalities of Krasnoyarsk territory.

In accordance with the action Plan for the prevention and elimination of emergency situations

of natural and anthropogenic of the Krasnoyarsk territory, approved 22.02.2019 year, on the

result the violation of technological processes in the production activities on the objects of the

technosphere and adverse hydrometeorological and heliogeophysical processes 32 hazardous

factors of emergency may occur (19 anthropogenic , 10 natural and 13 biologo-social). In this

situation, the Krasnoyarsk territory is considered as an unstable social-natural-technogenic (S-

N-T) system. In the study for the main sources of anthropogenic emergencies, a cause-and-

effect complex conditioned at the large number of factors of random nature is distinguished,

that determines the anthropogenic emergencies as probabilistic events.

The paper presents the results for systematization and graphical-probabilistic representation of

sources and factors that cause accidents and anthropogenic disasters in a specific territory. The

graphical-probabilistic approach involves the use of the methodologies of failure trees and

events, that allows to identify regularity of anthropogenic emergencies, to establish the causes

or set of causes for their occurrence, and to give quantify assessments the probability of events.

The determination of probabilities on the main sources of anthropogenic emergencies will

allow to unify the methodology of risk assessment and improve the management of territorial

S-N-T systems.

The event First Eurasian Conference "Innovations in minimization of natural and technological

risks" was funded by Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund of Science.


33

Assessment and analysis of risks in the reorientation of old industrial areas for

urban planning and recreational purposes (on example of Baku)

Vladimir Nadein1, Rüshdi Safarov2, Oleg Zerkal1, Natik Seidakhmedov2, Igor Fomenko1 1LLC « Oil and Gas Safety – Energodiagnostika"», 115162, Moscow, Russia 2Azerbaijan State Scientific – Research Institute of Labour Protection and Safety, Baku, Azerbaijan

Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, is a modern, dynamically developing metropolis located in the southern

part of the Absheron Peninsula. At the same time, in the region of the Absheron Peninsula and in the

adjacent water area of the Caspian Sea, there are situated richest oil and gas fields, which have been

developed for more than 150 years, being one of the oldest oil and gas producing regions in the world. At

present, necessity to give a "second wind" to the old-industrial areas, using them for urban planning and

recreational purposes, has become acute. A constraining factor for the implementation of these projects is

the need to evaluate and analyze the current state of various hazardous man-made facilities, including

decommissioned wells, which were mothballed or eliminated in different years using various

technologies, some of which cannot be considered as perfect at present. Considering that after

completion of exploitation of oil deposits, up to 60-70% of under-recovered oil and up to 10-20% of gas

can remain in them, the hazard assessment of such kind of technogenic objects is an important

component of the analysis and management of risks (minimization) in the development of old industrial

areas.

At present, in spite of the measures taken, some of the previously liquidated and mothballed wells may

come to emergency condition. During the time that has passed after conservation and liquidation of wells

has been completed, cement bridges are destroyed, corrosion of the columns and wellhead equipment

develops, losing its tightness, which can be accompanied by the recovery of oil and gas exit paths or

under conditions of natural increase in gas pressure behind the casing and annular space - the formation

of open fountains. To meet the challenges of ensuring the safe involvement of the old industrial areas in

the economy, specialists from the Azerbaijan State Scientific – Research Institute of Labour Protection

and Safety, together with specialists from LLC OGS-Energodiagnostika and Geological Faculty of

Moscow State University, proposed an approach to assessing the risk of decommissioned oil and gas

production facilities in areas of proposed development including:

- documentary, retrospective audit of facilities;

- current audit of facilities, including mapping, inventory and assessment of the technical and eco-

geological state of the territory, state of the previously abandoned and suspended wells at the time of the

survey;

- engineering-geological and eco-geological surveys at the sites of the planned development,

supplemented by further geological-geophysical studies of the current state of deep parts of the

geological section, as well as monitoring the deformation processes on the surface and development, if

necessary, of a program for re-elimination / conservation of wells and additional cleaning of the territory.

Obtained data on risk factors (technological, geological, environmental) will further ensure the safe

urban planning and recreational development of old industrial areas based on risk management

(minimization).


34

Analysis of the main characteristics of industrial risk

Oksana Hunchenko1

1Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, 03037, Kyiv, Ukraine

Any practical, including industrial, human activity is potentially dangerous, that is, it is

impossible to achieve absolute security in any of its types. Based on this thesis in western

countries, the basis of the life-safety methodology, which is part of the protection of labor, is

based on the concept of acceptable risk. The concept of "risk" has a long history of use as a

legal category. But due to the rapid development of industrial production and the need to justify

various aspects of military activity, this concept has become more widespread in other sectors.

Usually, risk is associated with a manifestation of uncertainty and signs of danger.

Different risk theories associated with the development of a market economy, such as

"classical" and "neoclassical", have become important. They helped in determining the risk of

the possibility of transferring hazard characteristics into a category of measured category. In

the manufacturing sphere, the risk is the probability of an accident occurring taking into account

the damage inflicted on human health and its severity.

In our time attention is drawn to the fact that every risk is inherent in such a feature as

uncertainty. That is, this or that unwanted event or unfavorable state or "failure" of the

equipment or a false human reaction in the production environment due to harmful and

dangerous factors. Consequently, "risk" is a quantitative measure of danger, which is

emphasized by the expression "degree of risk". Risk is also a measure of danger, which

simultaneously indicates both the possibility of causing damage, and its magnitude.

All existing causes of occupational injuries and diseases are divided into the following groups:

technical; organizational; psychophysiological. All the causes of accidents can be specified

depending on harmful and dangerous production factors action. The most suitable for technical

branches is the classification according to the effect of these factors to the human body.

In the protection of labor there are such concepts as "dangerous", "critical" and "emergency"

situations for classification of the level of danger, therefore it can be argued that their formation

is a consequence of the interaction of certain risk factors that arise in the relevant sources. At

the same time, each undesirable event occurs in relation to the object of risk - a person.

According to the effect on a person there are individual, group, technical, environmental,

economic and social risks, each of which is determined by certain sources and factors. The task

of employers is optimizing the funds that can be used for occupational safety issues. For a

situation of limited funds, this is the achievement of the highest level of production safety and

the use of best safety practices.

Research into the risk of production does not make it through the development of technology

and equipment due to lack of a basic methodology. And use of various methods and means for

production risk assessing leads to incorrect indicators or to inappropriate conclusions, which

are base for making managerial decisions, both in the design and construction of technologies

and equipment, and during their operation.

Consequently, theoretical studies of industrial risk factors should be based on the achievements

obtained in the field of not only "technical" systems reliability, but also on understanding of the

impact of psycho-physiological features human-operator on the risk of injury. This will improve

the methodological and engineering bases of the risk-oriented approach for creating safe

working conditions at design stage of production processes.


35


geochemical investigations

Yury Karin1, Natalya Yurkevich 1,2, Igor Yeltsov1,2

1Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics of Siberian Branch of RAS

2Novosibirsk State Technical University

The topicality of our study of sulfide containing mine wastes is determined by their negative

impact on the environment due to the formation and spreading of highly mineralized acidic

drainage solution, causing soil and air pollution. Besides, concentrations of rare-scattered

(dispersed) elements, non-ferrous and precious metals, often exceeding cur-off grades in modern

ores, allow ranking such tailings as " technogenic deposit " (TD).

The storage capacity of potential TDs in Russia reaches cumulatively several billion tons

(according to the 2016 State Statistics Service (Goskomstat) report). By comparison with

advanced industrial countries implementing programs for the integrated use of resources and

widely introducing low-waste technologies, such problems dealt with in Russia are mostly

concerned with the development of methods for technogenic facilities monitoring, vital for to

implementation of the programs for recycling of industrial minerals, safe disposal of toxic

mining waste, and reclamation of disturbed lands.

Application of electric prospecting methods allows optimizing the system of observations of

geochemical behavior of mine tailings and dumps using reduced number of samples; delineation

of the oxidation zone; determining the drainage routes of solutions; estimating the volume of

useful components. Therefore, developing methodology for comprehensive geological and

geophysical monitoring, including appropriate electrical resistivity data interpretation techniques

and taking into account the available a priori geological information has become a matter of

priority.

This study aimed to build volumetric models of mine tailings areas based on the case study of

four objects in the Kemerovo region (Salair, Ursk, Belovo) using geophysical and geochemical

methods. The resulting integrated research methodology is applicable to investigations of mine

tailings, implemented as a systematic sequence of the following actions: mapping and

delineating area boundaries of the studied object based on electromagnetic frequency sounding

method; identification of the lowest-resistivity areas for emplacement of pits and

microelectrochemistry profiles; geochemical sampling of pits, to obtain a relationship the

between resistivity and chemical composition of wastes; deployment of electrical resistivity

tomography (ERT) profiles; identification of acid mine drainage migration routes and estimation

of the maximum dam storage capacity; statistical analysis and data interpretation; geological and

geophysical modeling of technogenic bodies. The developed method allowed to assess

variability of the geochemical zonality, to identify migration routes of toxic solutions, and to

determine concentrations of high-profile substances having promising prospects of their

reclamation. Thus, the volumes of precious and potentially toxic elements in gold mine tailings

amounted to (average values, tons): 9100 As, 4300 Cu, 1900 Zn, 10 Ag, 1.2 Au. Of which, the

concentrations of arsenic (Class 1 hazard element) estimated at 9100 tons alone is liable for the

highly negative environmental impact from the tailing dump facilities located within the village

area harming thereby the immediate vicinity of the residential area. The obtained results indicate

that the levels of useful components (Zn, Cu, Ag, Au, Sn) contained in the studied objects are

comparable to ore concentrations. Their production could significantly offset the cost of

elimination of the environmental damage to the affected area. It would be therefore wise to

develop recommendations for the extraction of minor metals and reclamation of the disturbed

areas.


36

Intellectual innovation system of technological safety for the oil and gas industry

Vladimir Malyshev1, Larisa Borisoglebskaia1

1Orel State University, 302026, Orel, Russia

Results of the analysis of the dynamics of man-made risks in oil and gas sector shows, that

only in the last ten years, the economic costs of accidents has increased more than 2 times.

According to published data, the annual rate of the oil and gas field occurs around 20 000

serious accidents involving hazardous air pollution of natural water bodies and territories. To

date, the "corrosive defects" accounted for 31% of the total number of failures on the main

pipelines Russia Accidents involving pipelines, especially underwater, characterized by

considerable economic and environmental losses. According to the JSC "Gazprom" in urgent

need of examination of at least 30% of all the exploited pipes. Depreciation of fixed assets of

trunk pipelines, which is estimated at 56% and the average age of gas pipelines exceeding 24

years, adversely affect the reliability of their operation. Accidents at oil and gas facilities occur

not only in Russia, but also in many industrialized countries.

All this, in the opinion of US experts, forces us to accept the thought of the inevitability of a

certain number of accidents. To date, the oil and gas industry there is acceptable for practical

use systems which would allow for a specific object to evaluate the level of technological

safety, identify and justify the list of activities that allow the transition from the existing level

of safety to normability. The current state of science and technology make it possible to use an

innovative approach to ensuring technological safety.

The approach is to transfer a maximum of functions and, accordingly, the risk of system

software and hardware systems. Structurally innovative technological safety system consists of

two subsystems: the hardware and software. In turn, the hardware is divided into information

subsystem sensors, a communications subsystem and a processing subsystem and display

information.

The information sensor subsystem consists of a set of sensors whose composition is

determined by the complexity of the problem being solved.

The communication subsystem is designed to transfer data from sensors to the processing and

display subsystem. The information processing and display subsystem is intended for

receiving sensor data, converting it into a regulatory form, processing information, deciding on

the current level of technological safety of the test object, choosing an algorithm for reducing

the level of danger, if any, and issuing recommendations for taking necessary measures. The

basis of the subsystem is software containing software modules. Information processing is

performed fully automatically.

As a result of the state of the object of control of technological safety systems based on the

input data is detected and the identification of the situation, exceeding the level of security

events generated algorithm to eliminate it at a constant tracking of the current state of the

object. The very innovative technological safety system can be implemented in two ways:

standard and intelligent. Intellectually embodiment, the system operates completely

independently, regardless of the complexity of the emergency and the type of control object. In

both cases, the staff only needs to follow the recommendations issued by the system.


37



Igor Cheshyk1, Halina Hutsava1, Mikalai Barysevich2 1

Institute of Radiobiology of NAS of Belarus, 246007, Gomel, Republic of Belarus 2

Scientific Research Institute of Fire Safety and Emergencies of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of

the Republic of Belarus, 220072, Minsk, Republic of Belarus

The lessons of Chernobyl today take on new significance, with a special focus on social and

ethical consequences of this major disaster. While the main importance is still being attributed

to radioecological and medical effects, these, too, should be considered essential issues not to

be underestimated. In fact, the potential of humanitarian and socio-ethical dimensions can

appear even more global and bear more significance than environmental consequences because

they trigger the processes of social disintegration and general destabilization of the society.

Lately, the Chernobyl-related issues have started to reveal the tendency of being regarded as

rather outdated and of no more relevance to the modern times. However, the events of recent

years (Fukushima Daiichi accident) demonstrate, in a convincing manner, the inadequacy of

such attitudes towards such important matters and to the aspects of nuclear technosphere

development in general.

Even today, 31 years after the Chernobyl accident (being also the half-life of the main dose-

contributing radionuclides of cesium-137 and strontium-90), a significant part of population

(30–40%) in Belarusian affected areas counts as a risk group that is characterized by adverse

personal and emotional changes arising from exceptionally subjective comprehension of what

radiation risk is.

One of the forces that has had no small part in shaping the public mindset governing the overall

perception of ‘the Chernobyl’ was the absence of a robust psychological defence mechanism

that could protect the populations against the torrents of inappropriate, psycho- traumatic

information expressed in oversized estimates of the real scales of radiological hazard and

unbalanced negative versus positive critical reviews of the situation. As an expected result, a

variety of the most inept and doom-laden prognoses transmitted to the social consciousness

was profoundly reinforced as something real or inevitable. Up to the present day, the affected

areas of Belarus keep preserving some of their Chernobyl-origin stigmas and myths, e.g. ‘all

foods are contaminated’, ‘all diseases come from Chernobyl’, ‘Chernobyl area is inhabited by

mutants’ etc.

The changes and shifts to the better achieved through recovery and remediation efforts do not,

as a rule, have the immediate effect on the public consciousness since it builds itself on

stereotypes and the past social experience. Therefore, the safety of livelihoods in the existing

exposure situations should be provided by means of ensuring the following essential elements:

information and psychological protection, development of the radiological culture and

practical safety skills, targeted risk communication based on the level of awareness and the

specifics of individual subjective perception of a radiation hazard.


38

Development of innovative technologies to minimize the risks during the

construction and operation of structure on unstable soils

Fakhraddin Gabibov Intellectual Property Agency, AZ 1001, Baku, Azerbaijan

Modern construction requires the development of areas that are considered risky due to the

fact that the soils in these areas are characterized by structural instability. New engineering

measures (innovations) have been developed to significantly reduce or completely eliminate

the risks of emergency events in the construction and operation of structures on structurally

unstable soils. The new compaction and subsidence of ground by the deep explosions, the

new design of foundations, efficiently transmit the load on swelling and collapsible soils. It is

proposed to strengthen unstable soils in limited weak areas in the soil massif, determined by a

simple engineering calculation.


39

Environmental risk associated with water in the abandoned mines

Palma Orlović-Leko1, Irena Ciglenečki-Jusić2, Nevenka Mikac2, Ivo Galić1, Alojzije Filipović3

1University of Zagreb, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia

2Institute Ruđer Bošković, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia

3Geological Survey of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 771210, Sarajevo, Bosnia and

Herzegovina

There is a strong need for mine water risk assessment. In Europe, the majority of mine water

problems are associated with abandoned mines, thousands of which can be found in nearly all

European countries. The abandoned mines are the mine sites that are no longer operational, not

actively managed, not rehabilitated. These sites include open pits and waste disposal areas, such

as tailing dumps and ponds. The most serious problems are linked to the interruption of

dewatering, leading to flooding in mines and discharge of mine water to surface water and to

river valleys. The major problem affecting water resources is acid mine drainage (AMD). That

is the consequence of the interaction of sulphides such as pyrite minerals, with oxygenated

water. Due the increased mobility of metals at low pH, acid mine waters with elevated

concentrations of toxic metals and metalloids, such as As, can affect water quality and thereby

also aquatic biota. The mine water can pose serious health hazards for the communities around

the area, and can affect the livelihood of communities that depend on fishing.

In the Balkans region, we have investigated the quality of the water and sediment in the lakes

that have formed naturally in the place of former open pits (OP) of the Smreka iron mine, Drage

coal mine, Vinjani bauxite mine, as well as in the Veovača tailing lake, located in the location

of the of abandoned Zn-Ba-Pb mine. Metal concentrations were determined using ICP-MS

techniques. It was found that lakes are not acidic; the pH values are circum-neutral due to the

presence of carbonates. At the location of the coal mine, the water is characterized by elevated

Mn (55.8 - 84.3 µg/L), Ni (30.7 - 33.1 µg/L) and uranium (up to 33.7 μg/L) concentrations.

Number of metals (Cd, Pb, V, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, Sb, Ba, As) showed high enrichment in

sediments of the lakes Smreka and Veovača. In both lakes, concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, Pb

and Zn in sediment are above the Probable Effect Levels (PELs) values, according to the

Canadian Sediment Quality Guidelines. However, the concentrations of metals in the water of

these lakes are low suggesting that metals deposited in sediment are not very mobile.

Mine water studies and designing monitoring program allow timely recognition of risks and the

development of methods to minimize their adverse impact.


40

Risk assessment and possible solutions for certain abandoned mines in the

Dinarides area

Ivo Galić1, Branimir Farkaš1, Ivan Soldo2

1 Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering University of Zagreb, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia

2 Ministry of Economy, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia

The abandoned mine sites are associated with high levels of environmental problems, physical

hazards and socio-economic issues. Mining works have significant and long-lasting impact on

environment, especially if mining works are abruptly discontinued and measures of

rehabilitation of the mining area are not carried out. Dangers are manifested, dominantly in

reducing the safety and human health, in changing landscapes and environmental pollution. In

the Dinarides area there are numerous mine sites where, because of political and economic

reasons, mining works were suspended or minimised and no rehabilitation was carried out. Over

the last 50 years, the most common was the exploitation of metallic ore (iron, lead, zinc and

bauxite) and coal deposits, after which there were numerous unrehabilitated and abandoned

mines in a very sensitive ecosystem. In karst areas, close to the mine sites a large amount of

overburden was deposited, leading to changes of landscape. Abandoned mines and waste-rock

dumps represent a constant threat because in these areas the garbage is uncontrollably dumped.

Also, there is a great risk of slope instability and endangering lives and health of people in the

immediate environment. Priority in the rehabilitation of abandoned mines is given to those

mines that present severe public safety concerns and then to those characterized by adverse

impact on the environment. In this work we have focused on several abandoned or minimally

used surface bauxite mines as well as waste-rock dumps in which, due to the lack of control,

garbage is dumped. In order to minimize life-threatening and human health risks, effective

rehabilitation measures for these abandoned mines were proposed.


41

Assessment of post-earthquake ground settlement of clayey soils based on

consolidation settlement potential

Youngcheul Kwon1, Yudai Kawamura1, Hajime Imanishi1

1Tohoku Institute of Technology, 35-1 Yagiyama Kasumicho, Taihaku, Sendai, Japan

Shinhama area in Shiogama, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, is an unimproved ground that reclaimed

from the 1970s where the soft clayey soils were thickly deposited. As a result, the ground

settlement has been progressing in the area for a long time, and a large-scale settlement occurred

immediately after the earthquake, especially the Great East Japan Earthquake in Tohoku in

2011. In the ground settlement due to an earthquake, there are two major influence factors:

crustal movement and surface layer ground deformation. This study focuses on consolidation

settlement of soft clayey soil on the latter. Shiogama clay collected from the site is subjected

to consolidation tests using two types of soil samples: the undisturbed clay and artificially

reconstituted clay soils. The difference in the void ratio between the undisturbed and the

reconstituted sample at the consolidation yield stress, Pc, is defined as consolidation settlement

potential in this study. Consolidation settlement potential indicates the maximum amount of

ground settlement caused by clay soils after earthquakes, that is, the possibility and the risk of

ground settlement by earthquakes. This may be different from the actual amount of settlement

because it is assumed that the skeletal structure of the clayey soils is completely destroyed by

earthquake motion. In order to estimate the consolidation settlement potential, however, many

of consolidation tests have to be carried out using the undisturbed and the reconstituted samples.

It has been considered a limitation of these kinds of approach because it requires a lot of time

and the advanced consolidation test equipment. Therefore, authors have been studying the ways

that the consolidation settlement potential can be assessed more easily. Based on this motivation,

the pilot study that could estimate the potential using the plastic limit of soil is proposed in this

study. Finally, the risk of the ground settlement after earthquakes is estimated quantitatively at

each measured points of in-situ by using the method proposed in this study. Authors will present

about the basic concept of the settlement risk assessment method and the result of comparison

between the predicted settlement and the actual amount of settlement data conducted to verify

the applicability of the proposed approach.


42

Development of safety principles and criteria on offshore hydrocarbon facilities and

infrastructures

Gennadiy Shmal1, Vladimir Nadein2, Nikolay Makhutov3

1President of CISPR, Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia 2General Director of LLC “OGS-Energodiagnostika”, Russia 3Corresponding Member of RAS, Chairman of the Board on Technogenic Safety

Oil and gas producing countries and companies starting exploration, extraction, processing,

storage and transportation using traditional and new offshore technologies is associated with a

whole complex of complex legal, scientific, technical, technological, economic problems.

Experience in the development of the offshore fields in the North, Kara, Okhotsk, Caspian Seas,

in the Gulf of Mexico showed that the facilities and infrastructure created on the shelf should be

categorized as critically (CIF) and strategically (SIF) important for national security by their

socio-economic and potential hazards. In this regard, the justification and safety assurance of

such facilities and infrastructures should be based on the highest requirements for their design,

construction, operation and decommissioning. The requirements include two main groups -

ensuring compliance with applicable national and international standards and rules of

Rostekhnadzor, the Maritime Register, Rosstandart, Rostransnadzor, Stroynadzor, and risk-based

approaches with new methods and criteria of the Security Council, Russian Academy of

Sciences, EMERCOM of Russia.

Assessment, provision and improvement of safety according to risk criteria for facilities and

infrastructures of offshore development involves consideration of such issues as multilevel

scheming of scenarios for the emergence and development of hypothetical, beyond design and

design based accidents and catastrophes, the use of conjugate systems of standard, emergency

and catastrophic diagnostics and automated protection, multi-criteria safety examination at all

stages of the life cycle in terms of strength, resource, survivability, cold resistance, seismic

resistance, crack resistance, explosion-fire resistance.

Report outlines main provisions of the scientific, applied and methodological developments of

specialists of the Union of Oil and Gas Industrialists, sections of the Scientific and Technical

Council of Rostekhnadzor, the Working Group under the President of the Russian Academy of

Sciences on risk analysis and safety issues, LLC OGS-Energodiagnostika. They were carried out

in the last two decades in relation to the Sakhalin-1, Sakhalin-2, CPC, Prirazlomnaya projects in

cooperation with leading foreign companies (USA, Norway, Japan, Great Britain, the

Netherlands). The results of these developments are reflected in two oriented volumes of the

Safety of Russia series - “Safety fundamentals during the development of the continental

shelves” (2013, 768 p.), “Ensuring the strength and safety of the facilities on continental shelf”

(2015, 664 p.).


43

Scientific support of the basis of state policy in the field of industrial safety

Nikolai Makhutov1, Alexander Rybas2, Vladimir Nadein3

1Russian Academy of Sciences, Chairman of the Board on Technogenic Safety 2Rostekhnadzor, Moscow, Russia 3OGS-Energodiagnostika LLC, Moscow, Russia

At the international conference held in Baku (Azerbaijan) it should be borne in mind that a

whole range of measures is being taken in the world to improve safety and reduce the risks of

accidents, catastrophes and natural disasters. This applies to the Sendai Framework Program of

the UN until 2030, the programs of the CIS member states for the protection of the population

and territories from natural and man-made disasters.

In the last two years, in the Russian Federation, Presidential decrees approved the basics of state

policy in the field of fire, industrial and integrated safety in emergency conditions. In these

programs and fundamentals, one of the main criteria in science-based safety assessments is to

use the risks of hazards (crises, failures, accidents and catastrophes) for all stages of the life

cycle of industrial facilities. Risk parameters are defined as a function of the likelihood

(frequency) of these hazards and the negative consequences (damages) from them. According to

these parameters are established: hazard classification; categorization of facilities; the

acceptability or unacceptability of design, technological, operational and supervisory decisions.

At the same time, quantitative damage can be defined in three terms, such as: social (loss of life

and health of operators, personnel and population), material (loss and damage to objects of the

technosphere and natural environment) and economic (total financial losses in social, natural and

technological) fields.

To define, standardize, and improve integrated security, it is necessary to use two risk

characteristics: the actual risks that emerged at this stage of the life cycle, and the acceptable

risks that are set taking into account social, technological, and economic opportunities.

Acceptable risks are scientifically justified and established by the state as the ratio of critical

(unacceptable) risks to the risk margin. The difference between actual and acceptable risk

determines the level of safety.

To achieve a given level of safety, it is necessary to implement complexes of organizational

design, technological, personnel, and supervisory measures with scientifically based financial

costs of industrial enterprises and industries aimed at reducing actual risks to an acceptable level.

On the basis of scientific and applied research, the report provides basic equations, design cases

and parameters linking the interaction of science, government and business in order to

implement the foundations and strategies of national and international security.


44

Exclusion of the risks of injury in the release of the mountain mass from cleaning

blocks and bunkers

Eugeny Gumennikov, Nikolai Buktukov, Gulzada Mashataeva

Institute of Mining Art named D.A.Kunaev, Kazakhstan, 050046, Almati, Abai ave., 191

The article provides an analysis of the effectiveness of hydroimpulsive destruction of hard and

abrasive rocks relative to the existing blast-hole drilling technology, as well as the processes of

destruction by steel shells.

The work is devoted to solving the problems of remote crushing in an explosive-free way based

on the modernization of an experimental model of a hydraulic cannon developed in the Institute

of Mining Art named D.A.Kunaev.

The impulserubble-striking is equipped with a impulse rock-breaking organ with an impact

energy of 250–300 kJ, contains a powerful thermal generator, which, due to overheating of the

fluid in one of the water filled sections of the barrel cavity, creates a hydrostatic pressure of

water up to 300 MPa in 2-3 seconds. Then, in accordance with the specified pressure, the shut-

off valve is activated and the water jet, which is converted into the cylinder in the aero-

hydrodynamic path, is ejected from the nozzle onto the object to be destroyed at a speed of

about 650-700 m / s.

The distance to the destructible object is up to 5 m. When using a side-bucket in quarries, the

distance to the destructible object can be increased up to 15 m by moving the column with the

hydraulic gun out of the guides.

Water consumption up to 5 m3/h during continuous operation. Electricity consumption per shot

0.25 kW/h.

The use of a hydro-impulse rubbish will allow remote cutting of oversized during the

production process and increase the productivity at the mining facility by an average of 10-

12%, as well as fully ensure safe technological and environmental conditions for underground

personnel.


45


Kuibyshev reservoirs

Anna Gumenyuk, Inna Nikonorova, Marina Vishnevskaya Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Russia

The study area is located in the northern part of the Chuvash Republic, on the right and left

banks of the Cheboksary and Kuibyshev reservoirs (The Volga river), which caused the

division into the right-bank and left-bank parts.

The right-bank part includes the modern borders of the cities of Cheboksary and

Novocheboksarsk, the left-bank part - the Trans-Volga region. Chuvash Zavolzhye is a favorite

place for recreation for urban residents.

According to Bredikhin (2008), the relief stability is associated with two circumstances. First,

the stability of the relief depends on the natural properties of the relief, which determine its

dynamics and evolution.

These include morphometry (nature of erosional dismemberment, slope steepness, relative

heights, remoteness from denudation basis, etc.), morphology (river valleys shape, longitudinal

profile of slopes, shore shape, etc.), modern geomorphological processes, their type and

intensity. The natural properties that determine the natural stability should also include the

properties of the substrate (granulometry of loose sediments, degree of permeability, form of

occurrence, etc.).

The natural properties that determine the natural stability should also include the properties of

the substrate (granulometry of loose sediments, degree of permeability, form of occurrence,

etc.). Secondly, sustainability is determined by the type of recreational development. The

territory undergoes changes already at the preparatory stages, during the period of technogenic

development and, finally, during recreational operation.

Sustainability is one of the most important factors determining the development path (changes

and sometimes destruction) of natural complexes. Only when it is taken into account can one

make a reasonable forecast of the development of a recreational territory, and, consequently,

save it as a recreational resource for a more or less long time.

The relief of the right-bank part is subject to intensive gully-ravine erosion, landslides are

actively developing. The slopes undergo repeated motions that form landslides-alloys.

These dangerous relief-forming processes adversely affect the existing recreational areas

located within the Cheboksary reservoir. Debris covers the Moscow Embankment, where

pedestrian and cycle paths are laid. Currently, this coastal part of the Cheboksary reservoir is

under reconstruction.


46


Gazprom Interantional investment projects. The latest software for risk analysis of

the Russian manufacturers. Information security of PJSC Gazprom

Yana Krukhmaleva

PJSC GAZPROM

Without exception, all global projects implemented using modern methods and best project

management practices do not fit into the budget and deadlines. The main reason is the inability to

make risk-oriented decisions and to control the situation in the face of uncertainty,

incompleteness and inaccuracy of information, in inefficient risk management.

Some investment projects implemented by PJSC Gazprom are implemented on the principles of

project financing with the involvement of foreign partners. Such projects are characterized by

scale, complexity and capital intensity, a large number of stakeholders, as well as the associated

high demands on the efficiency and transparency of project management.

For more than 10 years, PJSC Gazprom has been creating a comprehensive project management

information system, the main task of which was to increase efficiency in decision making under

uncertainty and opacity during project implementation. In accordance with Federal Law No.

209-FZ of July 19, 2018 “On Amendments to the Federal Law“ On Joint-Stock Companies ”,

risk management and internal audit should be organized in a public company ... What increased

the importance of the presence of risk management in state corporations. But due to the lack of

specifics on the formalization of this functionality, the absence of exclusively Russian risk

management standards that will allow you to effectively manage projects taking into account

risks in Russian reality, the lack of criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of the work of the

relevant unit, work in the field of risk management is formal, and almost negligible in almost all

major corporations. Regarding the use of an automated risk management solution, due to the

absence of strict requirements to use a single Russian software product for risk accounting and

control, most even very large companies use primitive unsuitable for system work tools (excel,

word), and the whole process is formal character Although in this direction, Russian analogues

of high-quality software already exist. There is a second no less global problem in project

management. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 16, 2015 No.

1236 “On imposing a ban on the admission of software originating from foreign countries for the

purpose of procurement for state and municipal needs” prohibits admission of programs

originating from foreign states.

First Deputy Chairman of the Government and Head of the Ministry of Finance A.G. Siluanov

signed a directive ordering state-owned companies to develop a clear plan for the transition to

domestic software. Back in 2015, Vladimir Putin demanded that state-owned companies start

switching to domestic software, in November of the same year, Prime Minister Dmitry

Medvedev signed a decree that prohibited state-owned companies from purchasing software

abroad, if there are analogues in Russia. In July 2016, the relevant directive was signed by Igor

Shuvalov. In February 2018, a government commission decided that the Competence Center for

Import Substitution in the ICT field would be coordinated with plans for the transition to

domestic software. In accordance with the new Siluanov directive, state-owned companies, ten

days after its receipt, will have to convene a board of directors, where state representatives must

approve the directive. After that, state-owned companies must approve a plan for switching to

Russian software within two months - by 2021 its share should exceed 50%. Similar tasks should

be assigned to subsidiaries. These are companies from the list No. 91-p, approved by the

government in 2003.

But the whole problem is that in Russia there are no analogues of imported software in many

areas of activity. And plans to switch to Russian software will not solve the problem itself, since

the transition is impossible.


47

Russian transport network-bridge between Europe and Asia

Andrew Botviniev Moscow, Russian Federation

Improving the standard of living of people in the global or national economy is equally

dependent on the availability and quality of goods and services. Globalization of economic

processes is directly related to the increase in the intensity of trade, strengthening and expansion

of international cooperation. There is a growing need to ensure the rapid and safe movement of

goods carried out by international transport, including road transport and hence the

development of a network of international transport corridors. The possibilities of increasing the

efficiency of transit transport infrastructure through the development of the Russian transport

network, the introduction of innovative technologies are described here. The main result should

be an increase in the quality of logistics services, which involves primarily reducing the delivery

time and all types of logistics costs. The development of transport infrastructure in accordance

with the new requirements for the quality of services of logistics operators, the expansion and

development of international trade is one of the priorities in the economic program of the

Russian government. In order to accelerate the movement of goods, reduce transport costs, a

number of measures were taken, in particular, the state program "Development of the transport

system", which includes international transport corridors (ITC). ITC "North-South" will connect

the port of Saint-Petersburg with the port of Mumbai (India) for the strategic partnership of

Russia with the countries of the Caspian region, as well as improve Russia's connections with the

Gulf states and South Asia. The length of this corridor is more than 7000 km, most of it passes

through the Railways of Russia - up to 53% of the total length of the corridor. The Western

branch of the corridor provides direct rail links through the Samur (Russia) -Yalama

(Azerbaijan) border crossings, with further access to the Iranian railway network through the

Astara (Azerbaijan) - Astara (Iran) border crossing

The main advantages of ITC "North- South" over other routes (in particular, in comparison with

the sea route through the Suez canal) can be considered a reduction of more than 2 times the

distance of transportation, reducing the cost of transportation of containers compared to the cost

of transportation by sea. In the medium term, the timing of commissioning of the new Resht-

Astara (Iran)-Astara (Azerbaijan) railway line, which is the last missing link of the direct North -

South railway line on the Western branch of the ITC, will be in great demand.

Within the framework of cooperation between Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, a multi-modal route

India-Iran-Azerbaijan-Russia is being formed for transportation of goods in containers on a

regular basis. Sea transportation of goods-between the ports of India and Iran, rail and road

transportation - through Iran, followed by delivery by Azerbaijani and Russian Railways to the

end user. On the route connecting the EEC countries and China, one of the main transport

corridors is the Europe-Western China corridor, the territory of the Russian Federation is 2,233

km out of a total length of 8,445 km. Innovations include the organization of the movement of

unmanned vehicles, the absence of toll points on the roads for non-stop high-speed traffic, as

well as the introduction of a "free flow" system for the uniform passage of trucks in order to save

motor fuel, which will significantly reduce environmental pollution.


48

Risks and uncertainties in the Petroleum Sector

Nikolay Zapivalov Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, SB RAS University, 630090, Novosibirsk, Russia

The problem of risks and uncertainties is one of the key problems in oil production (Upstream &

Midstream). In petroleum sphere, risks and uncertainties are unavoidable actualities. The

question is, how to identify them, and how to reduce them?

In petroleum sphere, risks may be described as follows (a symbolic risk formula is presented

involving the whole set of relevant factors):

R = H + (G1 + G2 + G3) + (T1 + T2) + (E + C) + F + P, where

H is human factor;

G1, G2, and G3 stand for geological, geophysical, and geographical information to the full extent,

with summarizing models;

T1 and T2 are technical and technological factors, with account of innovative techniques and

effective systems of production processes management;

E and C denote ecological factors and natural catastrophes;

F stands for financial means;

P is the political factor.

All of the above factors are to be viewed in their dynamics. At each specific moment, some of

them may be crucial factors and others may turn out to be negligible. It depends upon a wide

range of circumstances such as regional and local dynamics of geological processes, changes in

technological & information systems, geopolitics etc.

Professor Akif Narimanov (Azerbaijan, Baku), a discoverer of such major Azerbaijan oil fields

as Azeri, Chirag, Gunashli, said: «The risk of failure is always very high, even with best-

equipped geological survey companies. Many major companies, being fully confident in the

profitability of well-drilling at the Caspian structures, faced a full failure. It should be kept in

mind that an element of randomness is always present, even when we have a full scientifically

well-founded confidence. The average proportion of failed prospecting wells and those with at

least some oil inflow, is 9:1. On average, only one of seventy prospecting wells may result in a

commercially profitable discovery.».

The situation is similar in other regions of the world.

To cope with geological & geophysical risks, especially in oil prospecting and exploration

(«Upstream Risks»), we have to keep in mind several important points as follows:

❖ In oil prospecting for large territories or separate objects, there is no need to be strictly guided

by location of the oil-source rocks (beds). Therefore, detection of source rocks loses its

meaning as an indispensable condition of oil-and-gas capacity.

❖ At the initial stage of oil-prospecting works, the principle of «extensive (wide-range) search»

is very important. This approach brilliantly justified itself in India in 1955-1965, resulting in

discoveries of many oilfields either on land and on Bombay shelf. This approach also proved

itself in West Siberia.

❖ Above all, intuition and luck always remain a significant factor in petroleum geology, being

an implicit result of rich experience and high professionalism. A.A. Trofimuk and N.N.

Rostovstev (USSR), A.I. Levorsen (USA), Professor Akif Narimanov (Azerbaijan), Kev

Dashav Malavia and Subir Raha (India) were bright examples of geologists with fine

intuition which permitted them to make successful prognosis.


49

Central Asia old tailings: Mutual risk factors

Igor Hadjamberdiev1, Rustam Tukhvatshin2, Ibragimjon Domulajanov2 1Toxic Action network Central Asia, per Ala-Too 6, Bishkek 720031, Kyrgyzstan; 1Asian medical institute named S.Tentishev, ul Gagarina 52, Kant 720000, Kyrgyzstan.

There are known old uranium tailings and dumps (former USSR military industry), and

warehouses of obsolete pestisides in Central Asia (CA). Uranium: North Tadjikistan - Degmay

tailing (exposition power 3,00-20,00 Mk Zivert/hour); Kyrgyzstan - dozen tailings (only in

Mailuu-Suu, total 1,9 mln cubic m), but also Taboshar, Shekaftar, Min-Kush, Ak-Tjuz etc. Total

radioactive wastes volume of four CA countries – about 760 mln ton. These tailings could

pollute distant areas of CA (by infiltration or directly by rivers, we made maps of these CA

risks). Contemporary study of locals health in tailings area find several additional unfortunate

factors (except uranium in environment). These factors are: arsenic (as some uranium wastages

transported to Mailuu-Suu from Warsaw Block -GDR, Czech-Slovak rep, Bulgaria). Obsolete

pesticides: infiltrated from badly saving dozen warehouses in Fergana and Chui valleys.

Persistent organic pollutants POP (especially – DDT) have the same unfortunate impacts to -

immunity, genetic, endocrine system as it has been shown by our 12 years study. New climatic

changing (GW) lead to hillsides destabilization and new landslides formation. For example,

number of rush of mountain lakes are rise up twice latest ten years, and now: 368 in Kyrgyzstani

Tien-Shen, 670 in Kazakhstani mountains, and 1553 in Tajikistani Pamir. So, it new dangers of

tailings and warehouses destruction. Additionally, there are foreign sources of health harmful

factors in CA – import of DDT. The chemicals are illegally imported as insecticide from India

and China, where DDT producing has been permitted by WHO (due malaria problem). Separate

and special hygiene interest of mutual impact for population health - are home and street dusts.

There are data that dust/smog in CA contains: a) local coal dust, which is, well known, contain

strontium and uranium; b) dioxins due burning of plastic and rubber); c) asbestosis dust from

house slate roof; d) Polyaromatichydrocarbonates (PAHs). We did screening analysis in several

rooms in two tailings areas (results: 36 μg/m2 and 90 μg/m2 ); just to compare – Caucasus high

industrial town 20 μg/m2 , China - polluted settlements 162 μg/m2. An additional danger to health

is emergence of the POP in the air.

Conclusion. Assessment of uranium tailings and pesticides warehouses in changing environment

- must take into account in National and regional Emergency planning.


50

The experience of Norilsk Nickel: Model of management of technical and

production risks

Eugeny Telenkov

Norilsk Nickel Company, Russia

One of the main risk categories for industrial companies, which they can successfully manage,

are technical-production risks. Technical and production risks may affect the volume of

production, the need to restore damaged assets, compensation for damage caused by third parties

and the environment.

One of the key problems in evaluating technical and production risks is to accurately determine

the likelihood of a risk event occurring in the future. As a rule, it is quite difficult for a person,

even an expert, to determine with what probability a particular risk is realized. There is always

the possibility of error. In this regard, the quality of expert risk assessment strongly depends on

those who perform this expertise, and the risk manager should always take this into account in

his work.

Another significant problem in assessing the likelihood of the implementation of technical and

production risks is the use of statistical data. First, very often there is no relevant statistics on the

basis of which a risk assessment could be carried out. Secondly, even the available statistics

often do not reflect the specific conditions associated with the assessment of specific risks.

Thirdly, the use of statistics obtained in the course of monitoring the operation of specific

equipment for the purpose of analyzing risk in the future may also not always be relevant.

In Norilsk Nickel, a stochastic (probabilistic) approach is used to assess technical and production

risks based on the scenarios of the maximum possible and most probable damage. The

advantages of this approach compared to the expert assessment of determining the probability of

risk realization are:

• no need to require experts to accurately determine the value of the probability of risk

occurrence;

• the ability to simultaneously take into account when assessing one risk different scenarios

of events, ranging from the most probable to the most unfavorable;

• the ability to determine statistical parameters specifying the risk assessment, for example,

mode — the most frequent damage from risk realization, as well as performing calculation of

damage from risk realization for any given percentile;

• an opportunity to calculate the aggregate portfolio impact of risks on the production

activity of an enterprise.

This approach allows you to perform detailed diagnostics of the risk profile of an enterprise and

assess the potential damage associated with the realization of risks not only for the production

and financial activities of Norilsk Nickel, but also for the objectives of the enterprise related to

environmental protection, ecology and labor protection.


51

Deformation of riverbed of Kura River as a factor of emergency situation in oil- and

gas-transport systems

Vugar Aliyev AMIR Technical Services LLC

Kura River is the main waterway of Southern Caucasus. Along the Kura River passes the main

pipelines of Baku-Tbilisi-Djeyhan, Baku-Tbilisi-Supsa, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum, etc., international

roads and numerous elements of an important critical infrastructure. The transport corridor

proceeds in a difficult environment – wetlands and a dense hydrographic system of Azerbaijan

and Georgia. On the one hand, numerous transitions of pipelines through water objects promote

a material deterioration, on the other hand, deformation of riverbed is washing away coastal

constructions, create danger of failures. It defines a research actuality of riverbed deformations

through which take place pipelines. Washout of riverbed under the pipeline leads its slacking-off

that, subsequently, leads to refusal.

In the presented work estimation attempt of riverbed deformations of Kura river from 1967 on

2017, an estimation of extremely possible vertical washout of riverbed and the forecast greatest

possible planned riverbed deformations of the river till 2050 is made. At designing of transitions

of the oil pipeline through the rivers the estimation of size of horizontal and vertical

deformations of riverbed is necessary. Comparing the maximum deformations of riverbed of

Kura River to other plain rivers, it is possible to draw a conclusion that at the investigated Kura

river deformation develops more intensively. It is tied assistance with isolation of high-water

bed from a riverbed and high degree of meandering that promotes to strong riverbed erosion.

High degree of meandering creates a turbulent stream that during high water seasons, transfers a

considerable quantity of solid deposits. The turbulent stream sated with deposits behaves as an

emery paper washing away riverbed walls.

The taking into account of riverbed deformations at designing of oil- and gas-pipelines on the

rivers will allow to lower considerably quantity of failures and, as consequence, will improve

ecological conditions.


52

The formation of specific effective activity of natural radionuclides in building

materials and products

Ayten Akhmedova, Islam Mustafaev

Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Baku, AZ-1073, Azerbaijan

Natural radionuclides are extracted from the bowels of the earth along with various kinds of

mineral raw materials as a result of industrial activity, and enter the biosphere. Thereby, an

anthropogenic modified, commonly enhanced background radiation which is an additional

source of radiation exposure the population is formulated. In this regard, a special role in limiting

the public exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation belongs to the building materials

industry. First of all, this is due to large scale construction industry relating with the extraction

and involvement of natural raw materials and industrial wastes to the sphere of human activity.

It becomes obvious that the level of NRN exposure the population will depend on the

radioactivity of building materials, which are produced, usually from the local mineral raw

materials; established practice of construction in the country and the climatic characteristics of

the particular region.

Correct score of natural radionuclides loads allows comparing the levels of natural and artificial

sources of radiation, determining the volume, orientation and even the usefulness of

rehabilitation. In addition, the decrease in total current dose load, and consequently, the harmful

effects of radiation may be more effective in the implementation of measures to reduce exposure

from natural sources.

Power of gamma radiation in the room depends on the radionuclide content in the enclosing

building constructions. Reducing gamma background in the accommodations of civil, residential

and public buildings already constructed is practically impossible or uneconomical due to

significant penetrating of gamma-radiation. This decline is real only in those cases where

elevated levels of gamma background are due to the use of materials for the thermal insulation

backfilling device or territories with a high content of natural radionuclides around the building.

The basis for calculation may be the formula for determining the dose level at the center of the

accommodation on the known values of specific effective activity of NRN materials of barriers,

but in this case radiation penetrating from the outside and from neighboring rooms is not

considered. Initial data for calculation can be obtained from data on the radioactivity of local

building materials and, the technical and economic indicators of the project in terms of material

consumption per unit of construction products.

Statistical analysis of the results of the measuring allowed to determine the lowest value of

specific effective activity of NRN that observed in the lime 16.5 Bq / kg, the plaster 27.2 Bq / kg,

the asbestos and asbestos materials, respectively, 28.3 and 37.5 Bq / kg, sand-lime brick 62.8 Bq

/ kg, mortar mix 54 Bq / kg and of Portland cement and 93.2 Bq / kg, gravel 98 Bq / kg, crushed

stone 108 Bq / kg and sand-gravel mix 131 Bq / kg that are used as fillers have a somewhat

higher values Aeff compared to heavy concrete and lightweight aggregate concrete, that is

certainly related to the presence in the latter less radioactive Portland cement.

In general, it should be noted that the construction raw and materials are characterized by a large

range of variability NRN activity, however, as specified, the normalized value of specific

effective activity in the building mixtures can be easily calculated from the known values of raw

materials Aeff with respect to their mass contributions and characteristics of production

technologies. This important circumstance indicating the possibility of radiation quality control

of construction products by eliminating or reducing the proportion of highly radioactive

materials in building materials and products.


53

Natural emergency situations

Природные чрезвычайные ситуации

Earthquake risk evaluation in Western Himalaya, India - a scenario report

Daya Shanker

Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee-247667

Uttarakhand, India

General understanding of risk is commonly probabilistic in nature, relating to the probability of

occurrence of a hazard that acts to trigger a disaster or series of events with an undesirable

outcome. This combines the probability of the hazard event with a consideration of the likely

consequences of the hazard. As an alternative to the probabilistic approach, we may use

quantitative measures of outcome as proxies for risk, particularly where we are concerned with

historical data. Probabilistic and outcome-based measures represent alternative but

complementary ways of approaching risk assessment. In particular, we may use data relating to

adverse socio-economic impacts as a retrospective measure of historical risk, representing

outcomes arising from the interaction of hazard and vulnerability. Technological risk is any

potential for technology failures to disrupt your business such as information security incidents

or service outages. Risk management processes all include steps to identify, assess and then

treat risks. Risk depends on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and location. Out of all events, risks

associated with earthquake are most attractive, because, it is mother of all risky events. For this

purpose Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand states (29°N - 33°N and 75°E - 81°E) of western part

of Himalaya, India one of the most seismically active regions has been considered for the risk

evaluation using earthquake data of period 1963 to 2017 with Mw≥4.0 taken from USGS and

ISC catalogue. Earthquake engineers express risk in terms of acceleration (g) which relates

direct force to buildings during earthquake loading. In this track, deterministic seismic hazard

analysis was carried out. Whole study region was divided into grids of 0.5° by 0.5° and 89-

seismo-tectonic potential sources were identified and using an appropriate attenuation model

the peak horizontal accelerations, peak vertical accelerations and ratios of peak vertical to

horizontal accelerations were computed. The estimated peak horizontal accelerations vary from

0.02g to 0.60g and peak vertical accelerations vary from 0.01g to 0.47g. The ratios of vertical to

horizontal accelerations vary from 0.27 to 0.78. The PGA contour maps prepared for the region

show that larger Peak Ground Accelerations are present in the region where there is a higher

density of larger faults and vice versa.


54

The use of GIS technologies in assessing the exposure of the Chechen Republic

territory to dangerous natural processes and phenomena

Sharpuddin Zaurbekov, Luiza Bekmurzayeva, T Ozdieva.

Grozny State Oil Technical University named after Academician M. D. Millionshchikov,

Grozny, Russia

The great variety of landscape conditions on the Chechen Republic (ChR) territory determines

the wide development of dangerous natural processes and phenomena of different genesis. The

complexity of the orography of the Chechen Republic (ChR) territory makes difficult to conduct

full-fledged field research. GIS technology helps in this situation.

By virtue of GIS technologies, we obtained integral thematic maps of the dangerous natural

processes and phenomena demonstration on a scale of 1: 600,000 relative to certain subtypes of

landscapes. This approach is connected, firstly, with the fact that dangerous natural processes

and phenomena are part of the landscape-forming factors. Secondly, the landscape basis is

recognized as the most convenient basis for the economic development of the territory.

For example, there were identified, according to literary and statistical sources, places avalanche

formation is possible (20-45о). It helped to construct a map of potential avalanche danger from

the available polygonal objects characterizing the steepness of the slopes. Further, the procedure

for subtracting areas covered with woody vegetation was carried out and areas with precipitation

amount insufficient for the formation of avalanche mass were excluded. At the final stage,

potential avalanche areas of less than 1 ha. were generalized. All results were updated in general-

purpose vector editors. Subsequently, the potential avalanche-dangerous areas obtained were

superimposed on the landscape map of the Chechen Republic and the number and area of the

avalanche-dangerous areas were calculated within each landscape subtype. At the next stage, we

calculated the number and area of avalanche-prone areas along the river basins of the Chechen

Republic, the map of which was previously constructed in the SAGA 2.04 system using a digital

elevation model.

Similar operations were carried out for other dangerous natural processes and phenomena, which

made it possible to obtain the following results:

− The high-altitude subalpine bush-meadow landscapes are the most prone to avalanche

danger. Here are the maximum number of avalanche-prone foci (1412) and the maximum

area of avalanche-prone areas (129 km2).

− The greatest number of outbreaks belong to the Argun (1848) and Sharo-Argun river

basins (1195);

− The most susceptible to mudflow activities are mountainous forest and forest landscapes.

Here the maximum number of mudflow channels is noted (79). Most of these channels

fall on the Argun river basin (66 mudflow channels with a total length of 289 km2);

− The medium mountain forest landscapes are the most prone to landslide hazards (128

plots with a total area of 209.5 km2). The largest number of plots belong to the Argun

river basins - 167 plots with a total area of 255.6 km2 and Sharo-Argun - 112 plots with a

total area of 151.6 km2;

− The delta and floodplain landscapes are characterized by greatest probability of flooding

(1011 km2). The maximum area of potential flooding belong to the Terek River basin

(919 km2);

− The semi-desert and desert landscapes are most susceptible to wind erosion. In the

Chechen Republic, the total area of land subject to wind erosion is 1603 km2. The area of

highly exposed to wind erosion is 301 km2, moderately exposed - 1302 km2.


55

Uzbekistan water resources: problems and solutions

Nigora Fayzibaeva University of World Economy and Diplomacy, Tashkent

The Republic of Uzbekistan is located in Central Asia in the subtropical zone of the northern

hemisphere. Its territory is 447.4 thousand km, the population is more than 32 million people.

Almost 4/5 of the country extends within the Central Asian deserts, bordered to the south and

south-east, powerful mountain formations of the Tien-Shan and Gissar-Alai. Mountains

occupy 15 per cent of its territory and have a high tectonic activity. The rational use of water

resources is one of the most important issues in Uzbekistan. The mismanagement of these

resources for 40 years now threatens agriculture, soil quality, and the availability of water

resources for a variety of purposes.

This article raises problems on providing the population with sources of water supply, as well

as one of the largest global environmental disasters in recent history experienced by the

countries of Central Asia - the tragedy of the Aral Sea, which, due to its environmental,

climatic, socio-economic and humanitarian consequences, poses a direct threat to sustainable

regional development, health, the gene pool and the future of the people living there.


56


Akhmetkal Medeu1, Viktor Blagovechshenskiy1, M. Askarova2, T. Gulyayeva1, A. Medeu Jr.1,

S. Ranova1

1Institute of Geography, Almaty, Kazakhstan 2Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Mountainous areas of Kazakhstan are largely exposed to a mudflow hazard. The Zhetysu and Ile

Alatau ranges in the South-Eastern Kazakhstan are particularly vulnerable to a mudflow risk.

The city of Almaty with a population of about 2 million people, which is the largest metropolis

of the country, is located on mudflow cones of the Ile Alatau. Large mudflow disasters in the Ile

Alatau occurred in 1921, 1950, 1963, 1973, 1977, 1980, 1993, 1999, 2006, 2014, and 2015.

Volumes of catastrophic mudflows amounted to several million m3, the discharges exceeded 10

000 m3/s. The main reasons for mudflows’ formation are heavy rains with a layer of precipitation

of more than 40 mm and breaks of glacial lakes with a volume of more than 100 thousand m3.

In Kazakhstan, documentary data on mudflow phenomena are available since 1900. They are

systematically monitored since 1950. Such observations are carried out by Kazakhstan

Hydrometeorology Service, Kazakhstan Mudflow Protection Service, and the Institute of

Geography. There was compiled an anthology of mudflow phenomena in Kazakhstan. There

were investigated the geomorphological, hydrometeorological, and geobotanical factors of

mudflows’ formation. And there were developed the methods for predicting rain and glacial

mudflows.

The Institute of Geography has developed methods for assessing and mapping mudflow hazard

and risk. There were compiled small- and medium-scale overview maps for all the areas with

mudflow hazard in Kazakhstan. They were published in 2009 in the Atlas of Natural and

Anthropogenic Hazards and Risks of Emergencies in the Republic of Kazakhstan that was

awarded with a State Prize. There were compiled large-scale maps for the territory of Almaty

city, showing the mudflows’ distribution boundaries for mudflows with different volume and

frequency, as well as objects affected by mudflows. On the basis of these maps, there was

estimated a mudflow risk in the form of average annual economic damage and life losses.

In Kazakhstan, a great experience in construction of mudflows’ protection dams has been gained.

The first such dam was the famous Medeu dam, created by a directional explosion. This dam

saved the city of Almaty from destruction in 1973. Now there are more than a dozen of

mudflows’ protection dams of various designs in Kazakhstan. In the coming years, construction

of two more dams is planned.

Since the 1970s, an active work on preventive emptying of glacial lakes with a break hazard has

been carried out. The unique techniques for such emptying were developed. Currently, an

evacuation channel through a lake’s closing dike is laid in this regard. Explosives as well as mini

bulldozers and excavators are used for this purpose. Lakes are also lowered by high-performance

pumps and siphons. In this way, it was possible to prevent the breaks of several lakes that could

result in formation of catastrophic glacial mudflows.

In 2017, the Institute of Geography developed a draft system of an automated monitoring of

mudflow hazard and early warning at the territory of Almaty city. The project includes

construction of monitoring stations at glacial lakes and mudflow channels. The data from the

monitoring stations arrive at the control desk of an operational duty officer. When sensors of

mudflows are actuated, population emergency warning sirens turn on automatically and

hazardous road sections are blocked. The system will be installed in 2020. A similar system has

been developed to protect the International Center for Border Trade on the Khorgos River in the

Zhetysu Alatau.


57

Highlighting Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Events Applying a GIS-Oriented

Approach Inside the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area

Aliakbar Rasouli1,2, Kevin Cheung1 and Hanieh Mobasher2 1

Department of Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia

2

Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Tabriz, Iran

Signifying the major severe thunderstorms events (STE) climatology inside the Greater Sydney

Metropolitan Area (GSMA) is regarded to be very important topic in the current climatic

conditions. The most concurrent and widespread STE producing hails, rains, winds and

tornados (observed from 1998 to 2017) were selected to characterize their temporal-spatial

distributions, based on a few criterion applied to the associated database. Accordingly, STE

were first derived from the severe storm archive of the Australian Bauera of Meteorology, to be

compared with other relevant data-sets such as: Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the

Australian Gridded Daily Rainfall data in determining their concurrent distributions. Accurately

252 events, observed in 34 severe thunderstorm-days, have been differentiated in three

dissimilar single, paired and multi-STE types throughout the study area. To acquire spatial

distribution patterns, a ST-oriented GIS was intently applied in the archiving, examining,

integrating and mapping procedure of the main widespread STE inside the GSMA. Within a

Model Builder setting, two dissimilar geoprocessing indices such as a Nearest Neighbor Index

(NNI) and a Directional Distribution (Standard Deviational Ellipse) were applied to display the

spatial distribution of STE clustering and inclination behaviours.

Analysing STE occurrence shows that damaging hail events (48.81%) have the highest chance

of incidence in the region followed by flash flooding rains (27.78%), destructive speedy winds

(19.84%) and hazardous tornadoes (3.57%), occurring in afternoons and early evenings

predominately, particularly in summer months with a maximum in December. The concluding

outcomes might well highlight the concurrent influence of dissimilar synoptic weather systems,

as major controlling mechanisms, in the developing and initiating of severe thunderstorms in

the region. Mutually, the spatial distribution models demonstrate three main patterns inside

GSMA, indicating Sydney Metropolitan, coastal area and topographic effects, by dominating

single ST- days (47.1%) and multi-ST types (39.3%) in the region. These patterns may expose

the interplay of a strong effect of Tasman Sea, dense urban areas effects in controlling of the

wide-extend STE, while there at least one category of a synoptic weather system is active. In

most cases, on the ground, such storms have catastrophic and significant expensively impacts

upon the natural environment and social community in the region, specifically upon the Sydney

Metropolitan's highly populated areas in the current climate change circumstances.


58


Yetirmishli Gurban, Sabina Kazimova Republican Seismological Survey Center of National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, N.Rafibeily 9,

1001, Baku, Azerbaijan

For the period of 2012-2017 years seismicity was uneven both in magnitude of the released

seismic energy and in the number of occurred earthquakes. The number of earthquakes has

reached an anomalous value in 2015 due to an increase of weak seismicity. The greatest

concentration of epicenters is observed in Zagatala-Lagodekhi region, in Oguz, Shamakhi-

Ismayilli, Saatli seismically active zones, Talish, and the north-western part of Iran adjacent to

Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. In the water area of the Caspian Sea condensations are

observed in the northern Azerbaijani part, around the Absheron peninsula, and also in the

central part of the Caspian Sea. The territory of Azerbaijan part of the Greater Caucasus is

characterized by high seismic activity, where the historical period have seen a dramatic and

catastrophic earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 6. About quite energetic continuing tectonic

movements in the Caucasus says seismicity on the territory in 2012-2019 yy. On May 07, 2012

in 04 h 40 m and 14 h. 15 m 13 sek. with on Greenwich time in Zagatala region of Azerbaijan

with a magnitude of M=5.6-5.7, on October 7, 2012 at 11 h 42 m 50 s with on Greenwich time

near Ismailli region earthquake with a magnitude of M=5.3, near Balaken October 14, 2012 at

10h. 13 m 13 s. with on Greenwich time with M=5.6 occurred strong earthquakes.


59

Mud volcanoes of Azerbaijan: ecological problems and environmental risk

assessment

Adil Aliyev

Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Azerbaijan National of Academy Sciences, H. Javid ave., 119, Baku,

AZ1143, Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is considered the land of mud volcanoes. Within East Azerbaijan, there are more than

350 mud volcanoes and mud volcanic manifestations on land and in the adjacent water area of

the Southern Caspian. Their study is very important from an environmental point of view since

the mud volcano activity has both positive and negative effects on the environment.

During volcanic eruptions, hydrocarbon gases are carried to the Earth’s surface, which form a

column of flame about 300–500 m high, sometimes in large quantities carbon dioxide and

volcanic breccia, which adversely affect the environment. During the period of gryphon-salsa

activity, volcanoes emit gas, mineral water, silty mud, and richly oil (more than 40 volcanoes are

known). As a result, in the volcanic areas, an unusual salinized, oil-saturated soil and a unique

volcanic landscape are formed from a geochemical point of view.

Along with geological and climatic factors, the formation of volcanic landscapes and,

accordingly, the ecology of the environment are significantly affected by the variability of the

chemical composition of fluids and trace elements of volcanic breccia.

The presentation discusses some important environmental issues related to the paroxysmal and

calm gryphon-salsa stage of mud volcanoes located in various climatic (semi-desert, steppe and

mountain meadow) landscape zones of Azerbaijan. On the basis of the actual material, the issues

of littering the territories of volcanoes, the dangers of carrying out construction works near them,

the preservation of the geochemical unique volcanic landscapes that have been formed are also

affected.


60

The GIS and remote sensing in the monitoring of debris flow effects in Tajikistan

Jafar Niyazov1, Ali Fazilov1, Mirzo Saidov2

1Institute of water problems, hydropower and ecology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2Research center of Geodesy and Cartography of Republic of Tajikistan

Tajikistan is one of the country most prone to natural disasters, and mudflow/debris flow is

considered as most dangerous phenomenon (more than 30% of the total number of natural

emergencies), the season of which begins in March and lasts until August, and are represented by

all zones of formation (slope, valley, foothills, middle and alpine) and classes of mudflows

(zonal, regional and anthropogenic). Areas of Tajikistan prone to the risk of mudflow/debris flow

are located mainly in the Zarafshan, Surkhob, Obikhingoy Basins Rivers, on the southern slope

of the Gissar range, South Tajik highlands (Varzob, Vakhsh and Panj rivers). The significant

spread of debris flow phenomena differs Pamir and Darvaz (Panj, Gunt, Vanj basins of the

rivers).

Currently, most of the investigations are devoted to the study of the structure of mudflows and

their intensity, and much less attention to the analysis of mudflow hazard, assessment of

mudflow risk, as well as the consequences of mudflow events. The research works and risk

assessment was conducted using modern IT, GIS and RS technologies were carrying out in the

mountainous and foothill areas characterized by steep slopes, a high degree of weathering of

rocks and the presence of a large number of faults, which in conditions of sparse vegetation,

intense rainfall that entails frequent descent of mudflows and other exogenous processes.

GIS analysis are done on the base of SRTM digital elevation model, Landsat 8 Operational Land

Imager (OLE) images, geological map in scale 1:200 000 and field investigation. Application of

GIS technology provides an opportunity for easy performing of spatial analysis and investigation

the functional and spatial relations between different aspects of debris flow environment. The

results of the study can be used in the assessment and mapping of debris flows hazard, which is

the first step towards disaster risk reduction and management.


61

Issues of assessment and zoning of seismic danger in Turkmenistan

Larisa Agaeva, Emil Esenov Scientific-Research Institute of Antiseismic Construction, Ministry of Construction and Architecture of

Turkmenistan

The territory of Turkmenistan is one of the highly seismic areas of the Alpine-Himalayan

seismic belt, characterized by the possible occurrence of strong earthquakes that occurred here at

all times. The seismic activity of the region is determined by the tectonophysical situation and is

associated with the large geological structures of the alpine folded zone of the Turkmen-

Khorasan Mountains, the Elbus system and the adjacent platform structures of the Turan plate. In

this regard, one of the priorities of the development of science in the country is seismology and

earthquake-proof construction.

Large populated areas, agro-industrial complexes are located in the seismically active zones of

the country, the development of mineral deposits is under way, and important structures and

transport routes are concentrated. The development of productive forces, as well as rural,

industrial and urban construction and the potential seismic danger of the territory determine the

need to develop preventive measures of protection from underground elements.

Danger is a property of material objects and systems of nature and society to cause any damage

when interacting. Seismic danger manifests itself in the form of a predictable, but uncontrollable

threat of earthquakes with given parameters on a specific area in a certain period of time, with

unpredictable economic, social and environmental consequences. Its main indicators are

intensity and risk. The first is characterized by the values of the energy class, the depth of the

source, the characteristics of the earthquake, regardless of the possible loss of the affected

objects. Seismic risk is estimated only for objects exposed to danger, with consequences defined

in time and space.

The earthquake of 1948, which triggered the development of seismological science and

earthquake-proof construction, awakened scientific and technical thought, presented new

requirements for seismic hazard assessment, methods for calculating buildings and structures for

seismic loads, quality design, construction and materials. As a result of experimental and

theoretical studies of the seismic regime and seismic and geological conditions, maps of general

seismic zoning (GSZ) of Turkmenistan, detailed seismic zoning (DSZ) of regions, and seismic

micro zoning (SMZ) of urban areas were compiled.

Results. A concept has been developed for taking into account the influence of local natural

conditions and factors on the distribution of the intensity of seismic vibrations. The scientific-

theoretical and methodological basis of the complex of research on GSZ, DSZ and SMZ has

been developed and the corresponding regulatory maps have been compiled on the example of

Ahal and Balkan regions in areas of 32 and 35 thousand square kilometers, respectively.

For the first time, a scientific and methodological manual for construction and installation work

was developed and introduced into practice - departmental construction norms VSN 01-05

(2005), where, along with well-known methods, it was proposed to use the results of

electromagnetic studies of wetted soils, vibration records from unsteady sources, residual seismic

deformation, seismic stability factors of slope deposits , features of the strike of discontinuous

and buried structures with respect to focal zones.

A technology and criteria for the development of construction sites on category III soils in terms

of more than 9-point seismicity, recognized by the former standards as unsuitable for

development and development, are proposed.


62

Formation of sliding processes in the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan and

their threats (Case study: the Absheron Peninsula)

Avaz Salamov1, Vagif Mammadov1, Hadiya Khalilova2

1Institute of Geology and Geophysics of ANAS, AZ1143, Baku, Azerbaijan

2Institute of Physics of ANAS, AZ1143, Baku, Azerbaijan

Landslide is one of the dangerous exogenous geological processes (EGP) arising from the joint

activities of geological, geographical and technological factors of the Earth’s surface. Landslides

occur both on mountain slopes and on shore areas of water bodies.

Landslides cause a lot of economic and moral damage to residential buildings, population,

various engineering infrastructures and other social facilities.

The number of sliding processes in the world has increased sixfold in the last 50 years, and this

process is ongoing.

Studying sliding processes and eliminating the consequences of their destruction requires a lot of

financial resources.

The traditional engineering-geological methods of exploration can not fully evaluate the territory

in terms of its propensity for landslides. Therefore, it is expedient to use complex geophysical

works during engineering and geological research.

As a result of studies on landslide slopes of the Republic of Azerbaijan, carried out by the

method of vertical electrical sounding geological, hydrogeological and engineering- geological

conditions of the territory were specified. It was established that along with such factors as the

presence of faults, disagreement between the angle of decline and the steepness of the slope and

the change in hydrogeological conditions, favorable conditions for the preparation and activation

of sliding processes on the slopes are mainly created as a result of fluctuations in the level of the

Caspian Sea.

Landslides take place in the Greater Caucasus (Gusar, Guba, Shabran, Siyazan, Khizi, Agsu,

Shamakhi, Ismailly, Gobustan, Oguz, Gakh, Balaken), in the Lesser Caucasus (Gedabey, Goygol

districts), Talysh mountains (Lerik, Jalilabad, Yardimli and Astara district), Nakhchivan

mountain-wrinkle zone (Shahbuz district) and in the shores of Mingachevir reservoir.

High-risk landslide processes occur and are under development also in the territory of the

Absheron Peninsula, namely, on the territory of the Bayil slope of Baku, Zykh village as well as

on the eastern slope of the Bibiyabat brakhiantiklinali and the Ahmedli massif where the area is

densely populated.


63

Understanding the risks of disaster reduction

Mikhail Faleev1, Nikolai Makhutov2, Evgeny Kozlov2

1Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis, Ministry of Emergency Situation, Russia 2Russian Academy of Sciences

Disaster risk reduction issues are declared by the UN under the Sendai Framework as one of the

most important ones for the period up to 2030.

Many countries in the world, having ratified this program, became participants in its

implementation. The Russian part of the program has become one of the constituent elements of

both the world program and the national program for the protection of the population and

territories from natural and man-made emergencies.

The state coordinator and main implementer of the program is the Emergencies Ministry of

Russia, and the scientific leadership is carried out by the Russian Academy of Sciences. The

Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis, which includes the country's leading specialists,

provides two main functions:

- consolidation of scientific potential around the creation of a scientific and regulatory and

technical base in the field of natural and man-made security of man, society and the state;

- formation of a public understanding of the role of disaster risk reduction for life support at the

individual, local, regional and international levels. At the same time, the provisions on the

quantitative assessment of integrated security indicators, reflected in two public declarations -

damages from loss of lives and acceptable social risks, are of key importance. These provisions

form the basis of state policy in the field of emergency protection and fire safety. They constitute

a contribution to the solution of theoretical and applied problems of security management in all

spheres of life activity of the “man - nature - technosphere” system.

The report sets out the results of the Company's activities both in the Russian Federation and in

the international community of scientific organizations in analyzing the risks of social and

economic crises, natural disasters, technological accidents and catastrophes.

The Company focuses on the human factor, which is directly connected not only with the

initiation of emergency situations and the magnitude of the associated damage associated with

them, but also with the most important human function - to predict, prevent and minimize social,

economic, technological and environmental risks.


64

Experience of creating a monitoring system of dangerous hydrological phenomena

in the territory of Krasnodar region Evgeniy Sherzhukov1, Dmitriy Morozov1

1 LLC "Emercit», Krasnodar, Russian Federation

In recent decades, there has been a steady increase in natural hazards that have caused damage to the economy. Among all natural disasters, flood damage is about 80%. According to

Roshydromet, the territory in the Russian Federation is periodically exposed to about 500

thousand km2; floods with catastrophic consequences - 150 thousand km2, where more than 300 cities, tens of thousands of villages and settlements (settlements) are located, more than 7

million hectares of agricultural land.

To reduce the damage caused by floods, a number of measures of a different nature are

necessary, including a reliable operational forecast of changes in the water level for a particular

locality or economic object. The lead time of the forecast should provide the necessary reaction

time.

The state observational network has observation posts that provide a high degree of reliability

of the forecast of hazardous events for 1-3 days. At the same time, the forecast of Rosgidromet

for a particular settlement has significant uncertainty, both in the degree of danger of the threat

and in the time of its occurrence. To take timely measures to protect the population and objects

of the economy, an ultra-short-term forecast (2-6 hours) of hazardous phenomena for specific

objects with a certainty close to 100% is required. Such a forecast will make it possible to take

prompt measures to protect the population (up to evacuation). It is possible to solve this problem

using departmental and regional resources. The use of regional resources is due to the fact that

the full responsibility for ensuring the safety of the population is directly borne by the heads of

municipal and regional authorities, who need prompt and reliable information about the

emergency situation, or about the threat of an emergency situation, localization of the place of

emergency and its scale.

In 2012, an automated flood situation monitoring system was created in the Krasnodar

Territory. The system contains 214 hydrological posts installed in 29 municipalities, of which

38 observation posts are equipped with precipitation measurement sensors. Based on the

information on precipitation, using hydrodynamic models, the hydrograph and flooding zones

are calculated at given points of the watercourse.

In case of reaching the water level of marks of dangerous or adverse events, the system of

emergency voice notification of the heads of municipalities and rescue services is activated.

The flood monitoring system established in the Krasnodar Territory has shown its high

efficiency. In addition to mountain rivers, the system can be used to monitor lowland rivers

during the spring flood in the step-by-step correction mode of the flood forecast.


65

Natural Disaster Exodynamic Processes and Events in Georgia

Merab Gongadze, George Lominadze, George Khomeriki

Vakhushti Bagrationi Institute of Geography, Tbilisi State University

Environment protection from natural disasters and their development forecast is now one of the

major socio-economic problems for each civilized country and one of the priority directions.

According to the scale of development of natural disasters and the damage inflicted by them,

Georgia, is one of the most outstanding among the mountainous countries, as these processes

cover almost all geographical areas here. Thus, the constant monitoring and research of these

processes is very important for sustainable development of the country's economy. The backward

movement trend of the glaciers of the southern slope of the Caucasus is related to the growing

rate/speed of global warming, which is determined by the long-term observations of glaciologists

of the Tbilisi State University Institute of Geography. In the years 1970 - 2013, here glaciers

retreated by 300-350 m, i.e. by 12-13 m per year. This circumstance is associated with excessive

evaporation, which enhances the circulation processes in the atmosphere and, therefore,

increases the precipitation. For example, according to the data of the last years of the weather

stations (Telavi, Sagarejo, Lagodekhi, Dedopolskaro) in Kakheti region, the sum of the average

annual precipitation exceeded by 25 - 40% the average of perennial norm. Increase of

precipitation, in its turn, causes a sharp intensification of natural exodynamic processes (snow

avalanches, flood flows, rock avalanches, landslides, mudflows etc.). Based on the triggers

analysis and generalization of the results of studies conducted in the last decade there are defined

the regions of Georgia, where in the conditions of high sensitivity of the natural environment, in

case of atmospheric precipitation over perennial norm or high intensity rainstorms period, is

expected activation of natural disasters processes above allowable background and related with

this geo-ecological complications. The danger of activation of these events or their

transformation into hazardous condition almost permanently exists in the regions of Kakheti and

Mtskheta-Mtianeti, Racha-Lechkhumi, Svaneti, Adjara, Samegrelo foothills, Upper Imereti

region and in the territory of Tbilisi agglomeration.

The Georgian National Academy of Sciences has developed the concept of ecological security of

Georgia. It provides for the establishment of a permanent ecological commission, composed of

scientists and practitioners, working in the environmental field, which will supervise the

implementation of scientifically proven and practically time-tested environmental measures in

the country.


66

The relative risks for population health in Krasnoyarsk city caused by cold

weather

Olga Taseiko1,2 Daria Chernykh1,2 1

Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology, 660037, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

2Institute of Computational Technologies SB RAS, 660049, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

Climate change every year more and more intensively affects the population health. The

dependence between air temperature and mortality in recent years has been studied quite

intensively. Many researchers show the presence of a connection between temperature waves

and increasing of premature mortality. The effect of abnormal temperatures is associated with

an increase in mortality mainly among the elderly, suffering from chronic diseases of the

cardiovascular or respiratory systems.

According to meteorological observations Krasnoyarsk territory is characterized by the sharply

continental climate and high temperatures during summer (to +36 ºС) and extremely low during

winter (to -43 ºС). To take into account the influence of these features on the population

mortality and morbidity this research considers such parameters as cold waves and sudden

temperature changes over a short period.

The identification of cold waves for Krasnoyarsk city was carried out by the method of long-

term distributions for average daily temperatures. The daily mortality rates were divided into

four age groups (0-17, 18-29, 30-64 and 65+) and three groups of causes of death (circulatory

system diseases, respiratory diseases and external causes). Temperature contrasts were

evaluated for a time period not exceeding one day. To estimate the proportion of the population

affected by the obtained parameters the relative risks are calculated.

The results of this study present that the greatest negative impact from cold waves there were

established for mortality from circulatory system diseases in the age of 65 years and older. At

the same time, the relative risk indicators for the sudden temperature changes factors are

significant for diseases of the circulatory system.


67

Atmospheric geochemical risks in strengthening the processes of natural

desertification and anthropogenic land degradation in southern Russia

Tatiana Kuderina Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

Environmental changes in the territory of central Eurasia, associated with climate change and

geopolitical processes, lead to the formation of new landscape connections and land use changes.

The processes of desertification and land degradation are mostly long-term in nature, but

periodically lead to catastrophic events causing natural and socio-economic risks. The global

challenge of our time is to combat desertification, land degradation and resist drought. Land

management, which ensures the well-being of people, should be based on knowledge of the

current state of landscapes and the use of rational technologies.

Desertification in Central Asia at the end of the twentieth century led to regional disasters (the

Aral crisis, melting glaciers, water shortages, etc.) and has a negative impact on adjacent

territories. Degradation of the surface of landscapes leads to an increase in the emission of fine

material into the surface atmosphere. Transboundary transport determines the migration of a

substance over long distances. An increase in the dusting of the atmosphere actively influences

the welfare of the population.

The aim of the research is the ecological and geochemical assessment of the surface atmosphere

in landscapes of southern Russia, which identified local and regional sources of atmospheric

dusting and revealed the effect of transboundary substance transfer.

Experimental ground studies were carried out in all natural zones with a landscape-geochemical

approach using the aerosol complex of observations of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,

Russian Academy of Sciences. A.M. Obukhov and the Institute of Geography RAS. At the same

time, modern types of land use of the underlying surface and climatic parameters of atmospheric

dynamics were taken into account.

The results of studies of natural and anthropogenic landscapes in the south of Russia revealed

local sources of finely dispersed substance emission during the drying and degradation of the soil

surface, determined anthropogenic influence and transboundary pollution. In the conditions of

climatic desertification, the dusting of the atmosphere increases with the disturbance of

vegetation cover due to risky land use. These processes are directly affected by economic factors

(short-term land lease, one-time economic benefits, disruption of crop rotation, lack of protection

of vulnerable areas, etc.). The anthropogenic effect on the surface atmosphere has an areal

character and is manifested in an increase in the concentrations of heavy metals, rare-earth and

other chemical elements coming from point man-made sources. The transboundary transfer of a

substance supplies into landscapes chemical elements that are not typical for a given area, and

may be the subject of interstate interactions to solve pollution problems.

Thus, atmospheric geochemical risks in the landscapes of southern Russia are long-term. They

are mainly affected by regional and transboundary pollution associated with economic activity.

Work done on the project Russian Foundation of Fundamental Investigations № 17-05-41121

and Russian national Foundation № 18-17-00178.


68

About one way of protection against mudflows

Kamchibek Kojogulov1, Aichurok Toktogulova2, Gulnara Kabaeva2, Tabaldy Jumaev2 1 Institute of Geomechanics and Development of subsoils , National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz

Republic, Bishkek

2 Kyrgyz State Technical University named after I.Razzakov, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

Kyrgyzstan is a mountainous country, so its territory is subject to intense natural and man-made

disasters, which include earthquakes, landslides, mudflows, landslides and other dangerous

phenomena. One of the negative processes causing damage to the population and economy of the

Republic is mudflows. Analysis of the literature has shown that the occurrence of mudflows is

primarily affected by hydrometeorological conditions on the mountainous terrain, capable of

creating large volumes of water during a short time period. As a result of long-term observations

of the processes of formation of mudstone mudflows, the presence of muddy substance in front

of the mudflow, at least 3 cm high, which is the guiding element of its movement. It is the

"tongue" i.e. the head of the suspension. This murky and high-viscosity layer of an aqueous

slurry followed by rapid mudflows is its "kernel". On the basis of our experiments found that if

you change the direction of motion of the muddy viscous water suspension in front of the

moving mud masses, i.e. "tongue", in the same direction begins to move the mudflow itself. The

proposed method of protection against mudflows is based on the control of the movement of the

"tongue" from the very beginning of the process of formation of the mudflow.


69

The way to eliminate ice jams on the rivers of Kyrgyzstan

Kamchibek Kojogulov1, Aichurok Toktogulova2, Gulnara Kabaeva2, Tabaldy Jumaev2 1 Institute of Geomechanics and Development of subsoils , National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz

Republic, Bishkek

2 Kyrgyz State Technical University named after I.Razzakov, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

One of the dangerous natural processes in Kyrgyzstan, leading to flooding of coastal areas is ice

jams.

Conducted long-term observations on the Alamedin and Ala-Archa rivers only within the city of

Bishkek found that ice jams are mainly formed in front of bridges and hydraulic structures, in

which there are obstacles to the movement of ice.

An analysis of the literature shows that the complexity of the masking process, the high cost and

the insecurity of the field work associated with the elimination of this phenomenon, the difficulty

of accurately reproducing it in the laboratory are the main reasons for the low effectiveness of

the control measures taken.

To eliminate the formation of congestion in a certain part of the river, a method has been

proposed without destroying the integrity of the formed ice with snow cover, removing melt

water from the under-ice and arriving from above along the channel of ice with ice drift,

achieved by nesting in the center of the river bed, beginning from the end of the mash tail,

sequentially connected reinforced concrete gutters into a dug canal, the beginning of which is

with a semi-funnel-shaped fence with a slope and a deep bottom below the bottom of the river

bed.


70

Scientific program of Republic of Bulgaria for environmental protection and

reducing the risk of negative phenomena and natural disasters

Emil Bournaski1, Ivan Ivanov1, Galia Bardarska1, Svilen Borisov1, Olga Nicheva1, Aleksey

Benderev1, Tatiana Orehova1, Vladimir Hristov1, Petar Gerginov1, Neli Hristova2, Polia

Dobreva1, Ivan Penkov2

1Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria

2The University of Sofia, Bulgaria

In recent years, Bulgaria has suffered from a number of disasters that have killed people and caused

considerable damage to infrastructure, cultural heritage, protected natural areas, livelihoods and property

of the population. On the other hand, the characteristics of the environment, such as physical parameters,

air and water quality and dynamics, climatic conditions and geological environment, have a significant

impact on both the quality of life, human health and all aspects of human activity as well as on

ecosystems and biodiversity. This required the Government of the Republic of Bulgaria to undertake and

finance a national scientific program "Environmental protection and reducing the risk of negative

phenomena and natural disasters" at the end of 2018. The aim of the program is to conduct fundamental

and applied research aimed at ensuring a sustainable, favorable and safer living environment for the

population of the Republic of Bulgaria. The activities of the program are organized in the following

work packages:

WP.I.1. Regional/local scale characteristics of the climate of the country. WP.I.2.

Water balance and water resources of the country.

WP.I.3. Quality of national water resources (surface and underground).

WP.I.4. Processes, quality of the marine environment, ecosystem functions and services in the coastal

zone and the Bulgarian Black Sea Economic Zone.

WP.I.5. The quality of life in the country.

WP.I.6. Models of changing ecosystems as a result of catastrophic events in the past - a key to

understanding current and future threats to the planet.

WP.I.7. Biodiversity, ecosystem functions and quality of the living environment.

WP.I.8. Assessing the risk of adverse / catastrophic atmospheric and hydrophobic phenomena.

WP.I.9. Assessing the risk of adverse / catastrophic geological (including hydrogeological) phenomena.

WP.I.10. Assessing the dangers of catastrophic earthquakes and their consequences.

As well as cross-cutting work packages: WP.II.1. Creating a unified geo-information environment.

WP.II.2. International cooperation. WP.II.3. Public presentation and communication.

With the implementation of the program, science is expected to play a more active role in the

relationship between decision-makers, the media and the general public. Significant efforts will be made

to identify, formulate and offer to the public information on the current status and expected future

changes in the atmosphere, the lithosphere, the hydrosphere and the biosphere, their possible impact on

the quality of life and human activity and the necessary measures to prevent and mitigate of any adverse

or disastrous phenomena.

The present report pays more attention to water resources of the country and water balance. The

components of water resources such as rivers, lakes, artificial ponds, marshes and groundwater will be

analyzed and evaluated. The mechanism for the formation of groundwater resources in Bulgaria will be

defined in selected representative sections. A computer adapted-to-the-catchment model can simulate

with sufficient accuracy the river runoff using predicted rainfall data, and this can be used to construct a

water balance of the river basin. The assessment of the available water balance will be based on real

statistics on water consumption and water use in the country's economic activity. The water resource

required by Bulgaria from the Danube river will be defined on the basis of long-term studies of the

waters used. A comparison will be made with the water balance of the other EU countries. The water

balance of the Mesta transboundary river between Bulgaria and Greece will be assessed. A modern

assessment of national water resources will be made and forecast for their change.


71

Global climate change and its impact on hydrometeorological condition in

Azerbaijan

Vugar Aliyev1, Rza Mahmudov2

1AMIR Technical Services LLC 2Hydrometeorological Institute, Ministry for Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic

Because of the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, several

hydrometeorological conditions, likely, will be significantly impacted. This paper presents a case

study review (from 1991 to 2014) of local weather generators in order to model hydrological

impact of climate change in Kura River basin in Azerbaijan Republic. The hydrometeorological

conditions considered in this study include maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation,

and streamflow. Changes in the frequency of hydro-climatic extremes are one of the most

significant consequences of climate change. We present here following main results of carried

out researches: on the territory of Azerbaijan, the average annual temperature has been increased

on +0.7°C in comparison with the multiyear norm; during the all period of instrumental

observation, the maximal temperature was +46°C (01-02 August, 2000); except of the spring, the

increase of the temperature has been observed in all others seasons of the year. The most growth

of the temperature is observed in winter. The increase of the temperature by heights depends on

the territory. So, on the altitudes >1000 m the often observable increase of the temperature is

about +1.1°C. In 2010 the increase of the average annual temperature in comparison with the

multiyear norm was higher (+1.3°C). On altitudes >1000 m such a rise was even about +1.9°C.

At last time the dynamics of local processes and the number of natural disasters depend on

hydrometeorological processes more essentially. In particular, intensity and repetition of floods,

squall of hail and sleet, submergence events increase. As a result, in the republic in spring of

2010, the sustainable submergence event, happened on the low flow of Kura River, has caused

500 million USD damage.


72

Quantitative Prediction and Mitigation of Landslides and Erosion Risks using GIS

and Remote Sensing

Emil Bayramov1, Ramiz Mammadov1, Rafael Bayramov2, Saida Aliyeva3 1Geography Institute of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences

2Faculty of Geography, Baku State University

3Microbiology Institute of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences

The objectives of this research are the following: quantitative assessment of erosion-prone

areas, assessment of the impacts of climate change on future erosion risks and quantification of

erosion risks in relation to landcover classes. The practical value of this study is that it promotes

a collaborative planning and decision-making tool for the mitigation of erosion risks and

consequences which are inevitable for the Southern Caucasus. The selected study area in the

Southern Caucasus is the Ismayilly District. The scientific novelty lies in the fact that it

considers the aspects of climate change in the prediction of erosion risks. The Universal Soil

Loss Equation was used for the prediction of soil loss rates. Out of 2559 km2, 292 km2 were

predicted as critical erosion classes with soil loss rates of more than 10tons/ha/year.

Precipitation impacts calculated by means of theHadGEM2-AO climate change model to

erosion processes also showed an increase in soil loss rates. The quantification of predicted

erosion related to landcover revealed a significant variation of critical erosion classes within

barelands (5–10 ton/ha/year to 6.21 km2, 10–20 ton/ha/year to 11.90 km2, 20–50 ton/ha/year

to 28.24 km2, 50–100 ton/ha/year to15.44 km2, 100–200 ton/ha/year to 0.75 km2). The

quantification of erosion rates related to landcover classes showed their highest spatial

distribution variability within barelands (62.55 km2 out of total 71 km2) and grasslands (339.44

km2 out of total 895 km2). Significant areas of stressed vegetation with low NDVI values (0.1–

0.2) were observed to be 259.51 km2 within croplands affected by intensive agricultural

activities which reduced soil productivity over years.

Fig. 1 (a) USLE predicted erosion classes; ( b) quantified areas of predicted erosion rates for

current precipitation condition for 1960–2003 (W1.4) and future precipitation projections for

2041–2060(HD26PR50-HD85PR50) and 2061–2080 (HD26PR70-HD85PR70); (c) linear

representation of quantified areas of predicted erosion rates


73

Natural hazards in the mountain regions of the Azerbaijan Republic and these CIS

mapping

Mammadov R.M. Institute of Geography ANAS

Caucasus Mountains are characterized by the occurrence of hazardous contemporary

endogenous and exogenous processes such as earthquakes, mud volcanoes, rockfalls, screes,

avalanches, mudslides, flooding, etc. Processes of desertification, wind erosion, shrinkage of

territory of glaciers and water basins, landslides, mudflows etc. have been intensified in recent

decades.

Geomorphological hazards (the threat of a disaster and catastrophe, caused by a

geomorphological object, resulting in the emergence of avalanches, mudflows, landslides, and

other destructive natural processes) are activated in recent decades in the mountain areas of

Azerbaijan. These hazards are studied in context with related risk – the probability of activation

of natural events leading to material loss and killing of people.

Classification of geomorphological hazards: For area of occupation: 1) regional; 2) of medium

scale; 3) local. By duration: 1) Instantly occurring (in a second or a minute) – earthquakes,

avalanches, rock-falls and etc. 2) short-term (happening within hours, days) – mudflows,

atmospheric processes (heavy rains, snowfalls) and etc. 3) Long-term, i.e. during. By character

of influence: 1) destructive impact (earthquake, flood, landslide, rockfall, avalanche, etc.) 2)

paralyzing effect (heavy rain followed by flooding, haze); 3) debilitating impact (depending on

power of a process). By heaviness extent of results: 1) Weak (break of communications); 2)

Medium (damage on communication network and settlements); 3) Hard (heavy damage and

destructions in facilities and settlements, deaths); 3) Destroying (total loss of natural bases of

territorial complex, population and economy).

Reason of hazards:

Natural factor: Endodynamic activity of certain geoblocks is the key factor, defining the

balanced development of geocomplexes in the Caucasus region.

Anthropogenic impact: In 60es – early 90es of 21st century the landscapes of foothills and low

mountain were degraded at higher grade as result of expansion of vineyards, grain fields and

orchards, while the middle mountain areas and in part low-mountain forests as a source of fuel

were not subjected to intensive cutting.

The situation has changed in the last 10-15 years when the intense deforestation occurred in the

mountainous regions due to considerable deterioration of the socio-economic situation

In 90es, huge number of flocks were directed to alpine- and sub-alpine-type meadows of Greater

Caucasus. As a result of this, the extension of mountain slopes without vegetation was observed

in the medium and high regions of the Greater Caucasus.

In the study seismicity, rockfall, landslides, mudflows in the Greater and Lesser Caucasus of

Azerbaijan was research separately. Map of the landslide density of the Greater Caucasus, map

of the landslide tensity of the north-eastern part of the Lesser Caucasus, Map-scheme of

mudflow hazard of the Greater Caucasus, scheme of morphodynamic density of the Greater

Caucasus was develop. The overall territory area of the territories encompassed by landslides in

the territory Azerbaijan is over 4000 sq. km. also the settlements, exposed to landslides in

Azerbaijan is given as table.

13% of the territory (over 10 sq.km) of Azerbaijan are under the influence of hazardous natural

processes, including chiefly: hazard of flooding – 700 km2, hazard of mudflow – 1300 km2,

hazard of seismic shifts – 6518 km2, hazard of heavy snowfall and avalanche – 400 km2,

hazard of rockfall – 150 km2 .


74

Slope stabilization and erosion protection in a single operation

Eberhard Gröner, Armin Roduner Geobrugg AG, Romanshorn Switzerland

For a successful and long-term stabilization of natural embankments and new cuttings in loose

rock, their effective revegetation is very important. In combination with hydro or dry seeding,

so-called three-dimensional erosion control mats made of polypropylene are very effective. On

the one hand, the 3D structure reduces the impact energy of raindrops, and on the other, the drag

force of the draining water is reduced. In addition, soil particles as well as organic substances

such as small roots, branches and leaves can be retained in the loop structure, thus improving the

natural nutrient supply. In order to reduce the negative effect of heating by solar radiation which

occurs when black variants are used, systems color-matched to the soils with less heating and

thus a better greening success are available.

Geotextiles, which are used as planting aids, usually have only a low strength and are therefore

only effective for low slope angles, or in combination with a stabilization measure such as wire

mesh.

In the last 15 years, meshes made of high-tensile steel wire for slope stabilization in combination

with soil nailing have established themselves. They can transfer larger forces and thanks to a

very high puncturing resistance are better to introduce the load into the nailing. Their

dimensioning for the stabilization of superficial instabilities can be carried out with a design

software according to the so-called RUVOLUM concept.

In order to increase the range of application of the erosion control mats described above, they

were combined during production with a light mesh made of high-tensile steel wire to increase

their load bearing capacity to 53 kN/m. They are mainly used as roll-off protection and/or

greening aids without nailing to the ground. The experience gained has now been used to

produce a product that combines the advantages of high-tensile steel wire mesh and the erosion

control mat. Loads of 150 kN/m and puncturing resistances of 180 kN can be introduced into the

nailing when using a system spike plate.

We show the development and application of both systems. Thanks to the systems described

above, it is now possible to efficiently secure steep soil embankments in combination with a soil

nailing system and to revegetate depending on the location.


75

Ten years’ experience in flexible debris flow barriers

Corinna Wendeler1, Eberhard Gröner

1, Alexander Barinov

1, Matthias Denk

2

1 Geobrugg AG (Romanshorn, Switzerland)

2 EMDES Environmental Engineering (St. Gallen, Switzerland)

Since 2005, over 250 flexible debris flow barriers have been installed, in more than 25 countries.

Between 2005 and 2008, full scale experiments at the test site Illgraben, in Switzerland, proved

the feasibility of retaining debris flows.

The efficiency of some of the first reference projects, mostly installed in Switzerland, was

analysed and a load design was then established together with the Forest, Snow and Landscape

Federal Institute (WSL). Standard systems were then developed with the simulation software

FARO. Data from real-scale testing were used to verify and calibrate the software outputs.

Following this development, the flexible ring nets became increasingly an alternative to classical

debris flow barriers in Europe, USA and South America. In large scale projects, where flexible

nets were installed in a row in the same channel, the efficiency of retaining large volumes and

the feasibility of this type of installation in a row were proven as well.

Flexible nets are appreciated, by designers and engineers, as a practical and economical addition

or alternative to existing classical debris flow protections.

Ten years of experience with flexible ring net barriers signify that their advantages have been

recognised and their efficiency in the field have been established. The increasing knowledge of

single barriers, barriers in a row and large scale barriers have allowed to understand the

advantages but also the limits of such a flexible debris flow barrier. This acquired knowledge is

presented in the following paper, accompanied by case studies.

More than 20 flexible ring net barriers for debris flow protection were installed in the last 20

years, in over 25 countries and have been protecting infrastructure, roads and railway tracks from

great damage. These flexible ring net debris flow barriers have been in the meantime established

as a certified European product, obtaining the CE marking. This contribution relates the

evolution of the first real scale testing barriers, leading to standardized barriers up to fully

working debris flow barrier projects. Case studies will highlight advantages and challenges of

this technology in regards to construction technics, economical aspects and its environmental

friendly characteristics.

Conclusions. Since the publication of the load design of flexible debris flow barriers and their

appropriateness tests in the Illgraben in Switzerland, many projects have been successfully

installed in the last 10 years.

Several construction details have been revised and improved. When taking into account the

hydrological processes affecting the stability of the stream banks and planning for reinforcement,

the flexible ring net systems can be considered as equivalent to classical large concrete

protection structures. To prevent steel corrosion the used flexible net system has a zinc-

aluminum coating. For more restrictive corrosion conditions, other solutions such as stainless

steel or a thicker coating layers are options for longer lifetime guarantee. Therefore, no material

disadvantage is evident compared to concrete barriers. Further, the lighter conception of the

barriers make it an unavoidable solution when easy handling, environmental requirements and

landscape protection are key issues of a project. The dimensioning concept developed at the

WSL, in use worldwide, has been verified by several filling and successfully retaining events. A

further adaptation and refining of the dimensioning concept could be achieved with more testing,

but is hampered by lack of funding.


76

Complex Safety

Комплексная безопасность

The use carbon fiber and carbon mesh to increase the seismic resistance of masonry

building

Arkady Granovskiy1, Bulat Dzgamuev1, Oleg Simakov1, Daria Lvova1

Moscow State University js Civil Engineering. Yaroslavskoye shosse,26 Moscow 129337

One of methods of strengthening masonry is the method of external reinforcement based on

carbon fibers (FRP). To date, tests have been carried out using this method of strengthening

building elements for the effect of static loads. The next stage is testing on the natural fragments

of buildings with the dynamic application of loads corresponding to seismic effects. This

experimental study on evaluation of seismic resistance of the large-scale model of a two-story

fragment of brick building from ceramic bricks on cement mortar was conducted. The dynamic

testing of the prototype was carried out on the two-component vibroplatform, where seismic

impacts with the intensity of 7 to 9 according to MSK-64 scale were modelled. During the tests

the constant load on floors – 4,5 kH/m2 was simulated using dynamic forces to the prototype

were simulated. Different options for strengthening of load-bearing brick walls concrete blocks.

The dimensions of the two-storey fragment are 2,3x × 1,56 × 3,0 m. Using scrims from carbon

fibre the slabs at each floor were combined into a single hard disk. During the tests, the

horizontal and vertical with composite fabrics, scrims and nets, were considered. Upon the

nature of the hysteresis curves the zones of elastic performance of masonry walls at the moment

of cracks and destruction were determined. Based on the results of the tests, the optimal schemes

for strengthening brick walls using tapes, canvases and nets made of carbon fiber were

determined. The possibility of increasing the disk stiffness of floor slabs (an important

component of the overall seismic resistance of buildings and structures, which is usually not

given enough attention) has been proven in the course of these tests. It was concluded that a

sufficient level of reliability of the method of strengthening the brickwork with composite

materials based on carbon fibers (tape, mesh, fabric) while increasing the seismic resistance of

buildings and structures.


77


geological processes

Irina Malneva Highland Geophysical Institute, Russia, Nalchik, Lenin ave., 2

In connection with the recent global increase in natural disasters, including those associated with

manifestations of hazardous geological processes (landslides, mudflows, erosion, and others), the

task of ensuring the sustainable development of active economic development areas, minimizing

their losses from the negative effects of these processes. At the same time, their prediction

becomes most important. Both long-term forecasts and, especially, operational forecasts, which

will allow for a few days, even hours, to warn of a possible danger matter. To identify the main

trends in the development of processes and rapidly changing factors, their substantial links with

solar activity were previously taken into account. Currently, there is a deep minimum of 24

cycles of solar activity, with virtually no spots on the sun. Reliable predictions of changes in

solar activity is currently not available. Therefore, the current trend in the development of

hazardous geological processes is now advisable to determine on the basis of the development

trend of the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere, which N.K. Kononova and the

author in a large number of publications (website www.atmospheric-circulation.ru).

To obtain the necessary data for operational forecasts. Hazards of mudflows, landslides and other

geological processes should be analyzed by analyzing some indicators of the parameters of

physics of solar-terrestrial relations depending on episodic manifestations of the activity of

processes on the Sun. First of all, it is the plasma velocity of the solar wind in near-Earth space

and the density of protons in it. The solar wind is the main agent through which active processes

in the Sun affect the state of near-Earth space, the geomagnetic field and the near-surface region

of the Earth. This is an additional source of energy in the development of natural processes. The

main parameters of the plasma of the geoeffective solar wind near the Earth's orbit have the

following characteristic values: speed 300–800 km/s and more; the proton concentration is most

often 0.1 to 10 cm3. The largest amplitudes of bursts of solar wind velocity values, reaching up

to 1,800 km/s and more.

The speed of the solar wind during the formation of catastrophic natural processes, as established

by us on the basis of the analysis of many catastrophes, is very high (more than 700 km/s). For

example, with the collapse of the Kolka glacier, September 20, 2002, a catastrophic flood in

Krymsk 7.07. 2012, flooding in Tbilisi on the night of June 13-14, 2015, mudflow in the territory

of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan on 04/27/2017, breakthrough of the

lake Bashkar and catastrophic mudflow along the valley of river Adylsu (Northern Caucasus) on

the night of September 1, 2017.

The indicated indicators of space weather (plasma velocity of the solar wind and its density)

should be used to refine the operational forecasts of hazardous geological processes (with a

possible lead time of 2 to 3 days and up to a week).


78


Anatolii Pavlenko Open International University of Human Development "Ukraine”, Kyiv, UA, 03115

Fresh fears have been raised over the role of mobile phones in brain cancer after new evidence

revealed rates of a malignant type of tumour have doubled in the last two decades. Techno

pathogenic effect - a set of factors and processes that have any kind of negative effect or impact

on living organisms resulting from scientific and technological progress of mankind.

This is a summary of ideas and methods for protecting the public from the negative impact of

electronic technology. While conducting research, the author tried to clearly define the

prevailing negative impact on living of torsion fields (TF) in comparison with electromagnetic

radiation. Electromagnetic fields warm the tissues of a person using all sorts of gadgets, while

torsion fields affect the gene level. Much attention is paid to the technology of protection from

torsion fields.

American biologists drew attention to this phenomenon, calling such radiation "nonclassical

electromagnetic radiation". The specific absorption rate (SAR) is considered as an official

standard for measuring the effects of electromagnetic radiation (EMR) from mobile phones on

human brains.

However, the biologists do not consider SAR measurements as an accurate representation of

mobile phone EMR effects on the human brain in real life. As an alternative of SAR the

increasing number of scientists uses the biological systems for evaluation of harmful effects of

mobile phone EMR. In the above-mentioned works the positive moment is a reference to "non-

classical" electromagnetic fields though their physical nature has not been disclosed. In our

opinion the "non-classical" electromagnetic fields are torsion fields

We need to convey to people the truth about the impact of electronic technology on the living.


79

Issues of food security in terms of minimizing natural risks

Nigora Talipova

Russian University of Economics named Plekhanov G.V., Tashkent Branch

The risk estimate of excessive food dependence is, as a rule, expert probabilistic in nature, and

involves the anticipation of possible negative situations, which, in turn, necessitates the

development and implementation of effective measures and mechanisms to prevent or mitigate

their consequences.

The article envisages the issues of influence of natural risks and acts on food security. And this

problem is further increased by climate change. Over the past decade, natural disasters and

natural acts in developing regions have affected more than 1.9 billion people and caused an

estimated damage of nearly half a trillion US dollars. In this respect, the agricultural sector

absorbs approximately 22 per cent of the total economic damage caused by these natural

disasters, which undoubtedly affects the sector’s ability to maintain food security.

A wide range of sophisticated risk management models are being deployed at the continental,

national and local levels to provide funding for government emergency plans and to insure

farmers in case of severe drought or other natural disasters.


80

Holistic Approach to Phytomonitoring in the System of Ecological Safety of Urban

Areas

Irina Glinyanova

Volgograd State Technical University, 400005, Volgograd, Russia

For the purpose of ecological risk assessments in urban agglomerations phytomonitoring is used

quite often. The scientific research analysis on the monitoring of leaf plates of woody plant

forms in various countries revealed that many researchers evaluate the quality of the urban

environment using passive urban biomonitors (plant leaves).Environmental monitoring is a

subdivision of the environmental safety system. Studies of fine dust on the plant leaves, the

dispersed and chemical composition of dust particles as well as the material and element-by-

element composition of leaf plates as a whole, allow to conclude on the environmental situation

in the test area and predict the development of environmental risks for the local population.

The majority of the conducted studies focus on plants response to the technogenic pollution of

urban areas while natural pollution has not been not studied in a proper way. There are attempts

by some researchers to identify in some urban plants natural pollutants, for example, radon and

its decay products, etc. There are studies that analyze the contamination of the territory in terms

of both natural and man-made loads in urban areas, for example, from the standpoint of the

geochemical characteristics of the elemental composition of poplar leaves. However, the

presented studies fail to properly disclose the whole range of natural and man-made pollution

sources and lack a comprehensive approach to this issue. In view of this, the author in this article

makes an effort to present an integrated, systematic - holistic approach to the phytono-

monitoring of urban areas which would allow to take into account and evaluate all ranges of the

urban environment pollution in order to predict the maximum possible environmental risks for

the population, the rapid development of environmental measures to reduce them. A holistic

approach to environmental science was formulated as early as the beginning of the twentieth

century. It attached "great importance to the concept of the "whole" but not to its component

parts". In view of this, the author reveals the methodological basics of a holistic approach

applied to phytomonitoring in the system of ecological safety of urban areas, systematizes the

types of possible contamination with dust particles.By way of example the author provides the

study of the dispersed and chemical composition of fine dust on apricot trees leaves (Prúnus

armeníaca), as well as the chemical composition of apricot trees leaves (Prúnus armeníaca) in

low-rise buildings in the Sredneahtubinsky district of the Volgograd oblast. The author

concludes on presence in plant leaves of pollutants from sources of man-made and natural

factors, environmental risks are predicted and environmental measures are proposed to improve

the population quality of life and the safety of urban areas.


81


technological risk

Nadira Mavlyanova Institute of Environmental Geoscience, 101000, Moscow, Russia

Subsequent the Soviet Union included 15 states: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Estonia,

Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,

Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. All of them had unified political and economic system

during 69 years (from 1922 to 1991). After the collapse of the USSR, on the territory of the

previously united country, was formed 15 independent states, respectively new boundaries were

formed, and existing environmental problems have become cross-border. Recently, a feature of

the post-Soviet model of cross-border cooperation is, in one hand, cultural-historical proximity

of the countries participating, on the other hand – economic and political differences that

require from neighbouring countries considerable effort.

The need of cooperation for enhancing geo-environmental security in the post-Soviet area is

becoming stronger to meet common issues of prevention and liquidation of emergency situations

and disasters of natural and technogenic character. In this situation, it is absolutely necessary to

establish regional organizations and integration associations to solve common problems

including the formation of single assessment methods of social and economic risks. Scientific

experience of our days shows that the preventing of natural disasters is one of the most

important destabilizing factor, resisted to a normal development of humanity. Earthquakes,

floods, volcanoes, tsunamis, droughts caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.

Meanwhile, natural disasters have no national boundaries and can span several countries and

their consequences are getting trans-border character.

The development of integration processes between the countries-participants of the former

USSR has been a process with several stages and multiple projects. There are several

international and regional organizations created on the post-Soviet territories: the

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Eurasian economic Union (EEU), and

Organization of collective security Treaty (CSTO).

Taking into account the transborder character of natural disasters, the adequate assessment and

reduction of the existing level of natural hazard require the joint international coordinated work

of scientists, engineers, economists, sociologists, design and planning organizations, various

levels of government, international organizations, and national ministries of emergency

situations and their field units, including the coordination of efforts in hazardous areas along

national borders. It will make possible to identify and map the areas with the largest risk level,

as well as to develop an effective system. The scientific collaborative links between the research

scientific institutions of the independent countries were broken or become inefficient.

Development of a harmonized approach to assessment of natural hazards, vulnerability

classification, preparedness for mitigation of consequences of natural disasters, ensuring safety

of the population is considering as one of the principal goals of the cross-border collaboration.

The geological features of this vast region determine the probability of occurrence of most types

existing natural disasters with catastrophic social-economic damages. The cross-border

cooperation is essential to deal with the hazardous seismic threat, floods, landslides, pollution of

surface and ground water because natural hazards have no boundaries.


82

Comprehensive assessment of the natural and man-made safety of Siberian regions

Vladimir Moskvichev1,2 1Institute of computational technologies SB RAS,660049, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

2Siberian Federal University,660041, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

The problem of a comprehensive study of the environment and the technosphere safety is

particularly relevant for the Siberian Federal District (SFD) of the Russian Federation, taking

into account its strategic position and great economic importance. Analysis of potential sources

of accidents and catastrophes, estimated areas of damaging factors impact and the number of

people living in these areas, allowed to classify the territories of SFD subjects by degree of

danger.

SFD includes a number of industrial regions characterized by the presence of potentially

dangerous, critical and strategically important facilities with functionally complex and highly

hazardous production systems. The complex of these plants and factories increases the

likelihood of various accidents and man-made disasters, characterized by both explicit (risks of

emergencies) and hidden (environmental pollution) threats to the life and health of the

population. Reduction of the territorial development risks ensures a more stable functioning of

the Siberian Federal District territories and will minimize the costs of eliminating the

consequences of emergencies and disasters. Strategic and regional planning for the sustainable

development of industrial regions should be ensured by achieving an acceptable level of risk.

This work has identified and analyzed the main types of hazards to which large regions of

Siberia are exposed. The analysis and assessment of the complex risks of the Siberian Federal

District industrial regions (Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Kemerovo Region, the Irkutsk Region

and the Novosibirsk Region) was carried out. According to the research results, a project of

guidelines for assessing the territorial risks of municipalities with the definition of basic risks,

their actual and regulatory values has been developed.


83


landscape planning one

Bahman Amiri1, 2 1Visiting Professor, Chinese Academy of Science, NIGLAS, Nanjing, China 2Associate Professor, University of Tehran, Faculty of Natural Resources, Iran

Emerging challenge within water science communities on how and to what extent inspiring the

concepts from landscape ecology might direct them in re-defining the traditional concepts in

hydrology in a more tangible manner, could be associated by increasing the number of works in

this new arena. Hence, it is of significant importance to know to what extent the structure of

landscape would influence on hydrological responses. It should be noted that lag time is

accounted as one of the most important responses, as having known it as well as possible,

managing the watershed of our interest would conducted in a more wise manner upon occurrence

of pollutants releases.

In order to indicate how our well-documented knowledge in hydrology might be faced with

challenge in the landscape hydrology, three hydrological responses, including flood magnitude,

time of concentration and lag time have been examined using the structural features of landscape

at 39 catchments in the southern basin of the Caspian Sea. This study has been investigated

relationship between these three hydrological responses and landscape metrics (shape index,

fractal dimension index, perimeter-area ratio, related circumscribing circle, and contiguity index)

for land use/land cover (LULC), hydrologic soil groups (SHGs) and geological permeability

classes (GPCs).

The regression-based models for lag time (0.68 ≤ r2 ≤ 0.80), those of time of concentration (0.40

≤ r2 ≤ 0.89), and flood magnitude (0.69 ≤ r2 ≤ 0.84) indicated that the hydrological responses

could be explicitly predicted by applying average values of the related circumscribing circle,

fractal dimension, perimeter-area ratio and shape indices for the landscape categories, hydrologic

soil groups and geologic permeability classes of the catchments. The findings also indicated that

shape-related features including but not limited to regularity, irregularity, and elongation, which

are measured by the landscape metrics, of the patches of landscape classes, hydrologic soil

groups, and geological permeability classes can standalone be applied in explaining total

variations in the flood magnitude, time of concentration and lag time of the catchments.

Hence, we should be more care of how we change our landscape in the catchments, as the shape

of change in the catchment landscape will influence on how the catchment of interest behave in

face of natural event such as a rainfall.


84

Choice of innovative risk management measures at industrial facilities within

complex topography with landslide hazard

Fakhraddin Gabibov1, Arzu Zeynalov2 1Intellectual Property Agency, AZ 1001, Baku, Azerbaijan 2Azerbaijan Research Institute of Construction and Architecture, AZ 1015, Baku, Azerbaijan

Studies on risk management at sites located in areas with high landslide risk, which are based

on the General theory of risk-analysis. The system of measures with innovative resources

regulating management activities to reduce the risk at the facilities within the complex terrain

with landslide hazard is proposed. The technique of definition of integral risk taking into

account the principle of integrated assessment of danger at implementation of administrative

actions for risk reduction on the objects located in a zone of high landslide danger is offered. A

calculation formula is proposed to determine the effect of the introduction of innovative

engineering measures to reduce risk at sites located in areas with high landslide danger. This

takes into account the indicators of both individual and social risk.


85

The main economic and administrative barriers affecting a high level of risks in the

commercialization of innovations

Fakhraddin Gabibov, Aydin Huseynov

Intellectual Property Agency, AZ 1001, Baku, Azerbaijan

In Azerbaijan, the commercialization of innovations began to develop intensively from the end

of the 19th century in connection with the development of the oil-extracting and oil- refining

industries. The main sources of innovative technologies are analyzed. Further the period of

development of innovative technologies during the Soviet period, i.e. the 30th – 80th years of

the 20th century with the limited innovative development in the defense, oil- field and chemical

industries is considered. At the same time, promotion of technical innovation is noted as a

positive moment, but also inhibiting factors of bureaucratic red tape and the accumulation of

environmental problems could be mentioned. Since the 90th years of the 20th century, after the

collapse of the USSR and gaining independence, Azerbaijan has moved away from the socialist

planned innovation system, without trying to preserve positive components of this system.

System analysis shows the commitment of the republic's leaders in the organization and

implementation of western countries approaches when commercializing of technological

innovations, but at the same time the economic, managerial, administrative barriers affecting

the preservation of a high risk level at the implementation of perspective innovations come to

light.


86

Assessing the impact of environmental tax revenue on environmental pollution in

European countries

Valdemaras Makutėnas

Vytautas Magnus University, Faculty of Bioeconomy Development, Lithuania

Policy-makers in all countries have been looking into environmental taxation and environmental

taxes as one of the main methods to address global warming and rapidly increasing pollution in

their countries (Morley, 2012). This also helps increase the state budget revenues, which calls for

verification of whether these taxes actually perform the functions they are originally supposed to

perform. Importance of environmental taxes is defined as the capacity of environmental taxes to

perform their functions and implement the respective goals, such as reduction of environmental

pollution through increase of the environmental protection related tax rates (OECD, 2000).

Research aim: to assess the effect of environmental taxes on the environmental protection and

compare it to the selected European countries.

Research methodology:

The following variables suggested by the foreign researchers to be included into the econometric

model for assessment of the factors that have effect on variation of revenues from environmental

taxes have been selected for the research:

Environmental taxes (ET) – percentage share of environmental protection related taxes in GDP,

% (dependent variable);

Independent variables: GDP – GDP per capita, EUR; Energy Saving (ES) – energy saving for

primary energy consumption, thous. tonnes of oil equivalent; SO2 – sulphur oxide emissions,

tonnes; Waste (W) – municipal waste per capita, kg; Renewable energy (RE) – generation of

primary renewable energy, tous. tonnes of oil equivalent; Regulation quality (RQ) – regulation

quality indicator: – 2.5 (low) to 2.5 (high); Environmental protection expenditure (EPE) –

environmental protection expenditure per capita, EUR.

Conclusions:

The correlation analysis has suggested that GDP per capita, environmental protection

expenditure, generation of renewable energy and SO2 emissions have the strongest and

statistically significant relationship across the European countries, i.e. the share of revenues from

environmental taxes in GDP tends to vary in case of variation of these factors. Meanwhile,

energy saving, amount of waste and regulation quality have slightly weaker correlation

relationship compared to other variables in the European countries. Moreover, in view of the

coefficients of the multivariate regression model, GDP per capita has been found to have the

greatest and most significant effect in Lithuania, same as all other European countries.

Generation of renewable energy and SO2 emissions also have strong effect in Lithuania. On the

other hand, in other countries, environmental protection expenditure (Germany, Sweden,

Norway) and energy saving (Estonia and Denmark) have shown particularly strong effect.


87

Factors affecting crop insurance: the case of Lithuania

Daiva Makutėnienė Vytautas Magnus University, Faculty of Bioeconomy Development

Universiteto str.10-315, 53361 Akademija, Kaunas distr., Lithuania

Due to the specificity of agricultural activity (dependence on natural and climatic conditions,

high seasonality of production and market cycles, peculiarities of assets used in production, long

production cycle and slow capital turnover, environmental constraints on activity, regulation and

volatility of political provisions and other factors), this sector of the economy has a higher

degree of risk compared to other economic activities. On the other hand, the adverse effects of

global climate change and other phenomena in recent years have resulted in a dramatic increase

in the damage caused by meteorological phenomena to agricultural entities. Therefore, there is a

need for search of effective techniques and means for risk management and protection against

potential loss caused by these phenomena. One of them is the insurance of agricultural plants and

crops, which provides protection against the dangers of meteorological phenomena and thus

helps to ensure the yield of crop farms, the stability of economic activity, preserve their vitality

and encourage farmers to engage in business risk management.

After data (2008–2018) analysis of crop insurance development in Lithuania, it can be assumed

that the positive development of crop insurance exists, and even though crop insurance is not

evenly divided throughout the country, the amount of policyholders, area of insured crops and its

share, the insured area by one person and insurance package supply is increasing, moreover

country’s and EU financial support for compensations of crop insurance contributions. At

present, cereal, maize, potato, sugar beet, legume, oil and fiber crops are prohibited in Lithuania.

In order to protect crops from meteorological risks, farmers can choose one of five mutual

insurance packages offered by “VH Lietuva”: protection against hail; protection against hail,

storm, rain; protection against hail, storm, rain, frost; protection against hail, storm, rain, natural

drought; packages for protection against hail, storm, rain, frost, natural drought. Survey shows

that the major factors which restrict crop insurance are bad economic situation, financial

inefficiency, not satisfying conditions for crop insurance and loss management system, low

reimbursement rates for insurance and excessive bureaucracy. Farmers indicate these fostering

factors for crop insurance: reduction of insurance contributions, higher contributions for

compensations, more flexible insurance conditions, simpler procedures of reimbursement of

contributions, better financial situation.


88

Risks and opportunities of the cross-border e-Commerce development in the context

of the new customs legislation of the Eurasian Customs Union and the Russian

Federation

Irina Rudaya1, Boris Anikin2 1 P.G. Demidov Yaroslavl State University, 150003, Yaroslavl, Russian Federation 2State University of Management, 109542, Moscow, Russian Federation

The advanced development of e – Commerce is one of the global trends of the XXI century.

Cross-border e-commerce has opened up new opportunities for many people and companies

around the world as it does not restrict a buyer and a seller to the national framework, promotes

the development of new needs and the spread of innovation, and stimulates price reduction in the

interests of the consumer. This is the fastest growing market, the total volume of which can reach

a trillion dollars only in the B2B sector by 2020.

However, the availability of cross-border e-Commerce is ultimately determined by the capacity

of national logistics systems that support the physical movement of goods. Longer delivery time

or higher delivery prices decrease the efficiency of cross-border e-Commerce and hinder the

improvement of the population’s life quality. One of the risk factors is the low efficiency of

customs clearance procedures when goods arrive at the place of delivery. The subject of the

study is an analysis of this group of risks and opportunities for improvement of the efficiency of

logistics of cross-border e-commerce in the context of the new customs legislation of the

Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Russian Federation.

The results of the study show general trends in the development of the international logistics

market in Russia and are of interest to producers and sellers in the market of cross-border e-

Commerce who use the services of logistics providers and are interested in improving the

efficiency of delivery processes and the development of the Russian market.

The basis of the processes security is established in the WCO Cross-Border E-Commerce

Framework of Standards which offers two main solutions: Simplified Clearance Procedures and

Expanding the Concept of Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) to Cross-Border E-Commerce.

The customs legislation of the EAEU and the Russian Federation provides for the simplification

of customs clearance procedures for express cargo and the introduction of the institution of

Authorized Economic Operator.

The problems of practical implementation of the de-risking tools include a low integration of the

Russian logistics system, in particular, into the global system of international logistics services,

administrative barriers, and the lack of common standards for the use of data for customs

purposes. To date, Russia has not found an effective solution for the single-window system. The

specificity of the requirements of the Russian customs prevents the international logistics

business from cooperation in the field of customs affairs.

Further penetration of ‘door-to-door’ and ‘express’ logistics delivery solutions deep into the

region opens the door to new opportunities for participants in the market of cross-border e-

Commerce. A qualitative change in the international logistics market is possible with the

development of a wide network of AEO in Russia; the efforts of the international and Russian

business should be aimed at promoting the cooperation with a view of development of this

opening services sector.


89

The environmental component of the integrated security of the Caspian

macro-region

Anna Fedotova, Lyudmila Yakovleva, Elena Loktionova Astrakhan State University

In modern society for the development natural living conditions are necessaryin addition to the

well-established stereotypes about the presence of high technologies in it. And the main ones are

WATER and FOOD. The development of human civilizations began where there was water

(river valleys) and conditions for growing "food" (fertile soil). History shows that such territories

are rich in natural resources and minerals. Its presence is associated with the economic good of

the region and entails the intensive development of the mining and processing industries, which

naturally puts pressure on the ecological framework of the territory.

The Caspian macro-region is unique in terms of the availability of diverse natural resources

(biological resources, minerals, hydrocarbons, fresh water, natural and climatic conditions). The

region has “three whales” and the security of the macro-region plays an important role in

ensuring the security of every individual Caspian state. Despite the fact that the problems of the

Caspian region are constantly in the field of view of scientists, comprehensive studies, taking

into account the entire pool of problems and regional aspects, have practically not been carried

out on this issue.

The main goal of the research is to develop the integrated security system that takes into account

the interrelation and interaction of a whole complex of factors that are a necessary condition for

preserving and further developing it on the basis of large-scale comprehensive scientific research

on the current state of the Caspian macro-region.

The Astrakhan region is one of the three regions of the Russian Federation with direct access to

the Caspian Sea,there for all the problems associated with the Caspian macro-region are top

priorities for it. Tourist flows, economic factors, new pipelines and logistics systems, turns in

international relations are largely related to the ecology of the region. The balance in the Caspian

macro-region is associated with the ecological state and population size of various flora and

fauna species. Talking about the natural balance in this perspective does not make sense, since

the ecological situation, and hence biodiversity, is largely determined by the legislation of a

single state of the Caspian coast.

The long-term research of the scientists of the Astrakhan State University allowed us to more

fully assess the evolution of the delta landscapes of the Russian part of the Caspian basin. On the

basis of the results obtained, the hypothesis was proposed for the main paths of evolution of the

soil and vegetation cover under the conditions of a change in the hydrological regime as a result

of transgressions of the Caspian Sea. Some methodological approaches to the study of the

mechanisms of development, assessment and diagnosis of degradation processes in soils are

substantiated, and the composite latent indicator of soil quality is constructed.

In the context of ensuring environmental safety in the Caspian Sea region, efforts should be

directed at solving two interrelated strategically important tasks.It is necessary to ensure the

proper use of the environmental and natural resources component in the region and take all

measures aimed at preserving the marine environment and the Caspian ecosystem. The

biological resources of the Caspian Sea, in contrast to the mineral and raw materials, are

renewable and they can serve people indefinitely if they are exploitedproperly.


90

The influence of the combined effect of negative factors: heavy metals, pesticides,

radionuclides, etc. - in the soils of urban agglomerations to ensure their key

functions and ecosystem services.

Vadim Plyushchikov1, Vladimir Avdotyin2, Vladislav Plyushchikov1, Mirashraf Fatiev3

1Agrarian Technological Institute, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 2Department of Technosphere Safety Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 3Department of Landscape Design and Sustainable Ecosystems of the Agrarian-Technological Institute,

Peoples' Friendship University of Russia

The subject of the work is to take into account the influence of the combination of negative

factors (heavy metals, pesticides, radionuclides, etc.) in the soils of urban agglomerations on the

provision of their key functions and ecosystem services in order to take this factor into account

in disaster risk reduction programs of the municidal formations on the basis of predicting the

synergies of mutagenic, carcinogenic and lethal effects in the interaction of various

environmental factors. The methodology of the work is built on a risk-oriented approach within

the framework of Sendaiisk th Framework Program for Disaster Risk Reduction for 2015-2030.

The results of the work are based on a mathematical model of synergism that quantitatively

describes and interprets data on the yield of mutations and cytogenetic damage in plants, living

organisms. The results of the work complement the current level of understanding of synergistic

interactions of various environmental negative factors in the soil of urban agglomerations to

ensure their key functions and ecosystem The main result of the work is the inclusion of the

combination factor and the mutual influence of the negative factor succinctly in the list of

factors that must be taken into account when developing programs for disaster risk reduction by

municipalities. The results of this work can be used in the materials of textbooks for university

students. They can also be of interest to ecologists and make practical recommendations for

sanitation and hygiene services.


91

Changes in the environment: Importance of long-term monitoring

Irena Ciglenečki, Milan Čanković, Jelena Dautović, Marija Marguš, Ivica Janeković Rudjer Bošković Institute, Division for marine and environmental research, Zagreb, Croatia

Long-term data sets from freshwater, estuarine and marine ecosystems provide unique

information on complex dynamics within the ecosystems themselves, especially when they

respond to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Today, they become even more

important since they play a key role in comprehensive discussions and conclusions concerning

the climatic and anthropogenic pressure. The importance of long-term research in the aquatic

environment is crucial for many reasons, such as: the interpretation of main processes within

ecosystems, detecting the occurrence of complex conditions which might be indiscernible in

short-time scale, documenting physical, chemical and biological phenomena and discovering

the complexity of interactions as well as dynamics and the population ecology. Therefore, long-

term research is an ideal basis for the evaluation and creation of legislation focused on

environmental quality and pollution control, and monitoring and prediction of climate change.

In that sense, long-term data on the ecological status of Rogoznica Lake (RL), a unique marine

system on the Adriatic coast, characterized by the occurrence of hypoxic-anoxic conditions, as

well as data on the characterization of organic matter in the northern Adriatic (NA), which are

unified and discussed within the projects of the Croatian Science Foundation SPHERE (Sulfur

and carbon dynamics in the marine and freshwater environment, IP-11- 2013-1205) and

MARRES (Rogozničko Sea Lake as a Responsive Response to Environmental Changes, IP-

2018-01-1717) are unique for the Adriatic and Mediterranean, and beyond.

Rogoznica Lake is an ideal site for monitoring changes in the environment. Long-term data

(1992-2018) indicate that the lake track climate changes that reflect in the warming, and

accumulation of toxic sulphide and ammonium in the bottom layer of the lake. Those changes

are congruent with the reports for the Adriatic, and represent a potential trigger for further, even

more severe changes, which can ultimately lead to degradation of this lake ecosystem.

Similarly, the same scenario can be expected in other similar and by climate change threatened

systems.

On the other side organic matter in the NA shows very pronounced changes in quantity and

properties. During the studied years (1990-2018), periods of high and low carbon content were

exchanged, with evident changes in reactivity relative to the content of the surface active

fraction of the organic matter. Recorded changes point to alteration of eutrophic and

oligotrophic episodes, embedded in the general trend of oligotrophy in the studied period.

Changes in organic matter properties point to changes in the northern Adriatic ecosystem,

which are mostly related to changes in predominant phytoplankton communities, in response to

changes in hydrographical conditions as a part of global changes.


92

Risk management at the piloting stage

Yuliia Kvach National Aviation University, Kyiv, Ukraine

Air transportations are related to the risk. Risk is an objective reality, because there is no

absolutely reliable technique, and there is no person who would not be mistaken. Reducing the

risk of aviation events that is bringing it to an acceptable level is a key component of the aviation

safety management system.

The normative and technical documentation emphasizes the need for a systematic solution to the

problem of managing flight safety.

It is proposed to identify potential risks through modeling in the MATLAB environment, so that

in case of necessity to toke measure for reduction of occurrence probability of aviation event due

to a management by reliability of the light-signal providing.

The toolkit is created using the MATLAB interface to determine the visual search of the obstacle

visibility designated both by marking and illumination by stationary lights of the corresponding

colors and intensity in such a way as to satisfy both the pilots and the population, depending on

the indication in the field of input data:

1. the coordinates (X, Y, Z) and the angles (V, G) of the location of the light-signal fires on

the obstacles;

2. photometric data of light-signal fires by calling ies-files of the respective fires;

3. the coordinates of the observer's location with respect to the obstacles marked with light-

signal fires for determining the length of the trajectory between the light emitter and the receiver;

4. parameters characterizing the complexity of meteorological conditions with pointing of

the background brightness (Lf), atmospheric transparency and meteorological distance of

visibility (MDV).

The created toolkit allows to get:

− illumination, taking into account the cosine dependence created by aerodrome fires at the

pupil of the observer (E0);

− illumination on the Allard, which is created by light-signal fires at the observer's pupil

(EA);

− total illumination produced by light-signal fires at the observer's pupil (E) with the

definition of its minimum, average and maximum values;

− probabilities of observation of light-signal lights (R);

− evaluation of the risk of an aviation event occurrence;

− graphic image of illumination from each light-signal fire;

− graphic image of radiation orientation of light-signal fires.

The simulation result of the effect of the atmosphere transparency, the coordinates and the angles

of the location of the light-signal fires on the obstacles, will help to determine the quantitative

significance of the risk of an aviation event occurring during the piloting stage, which will allow

to evaluate its acceptability and, if necessary, take measures to reduce it.


93

On the causes and consequences of cognitive distortions in assessing the significance

and role of civilization factors in risk and safety management

Vladimir Avdotin1, Aleksandr Kononov2, Vadim Plyushchikov1, Julia Avdotina3 , Vladislav

Plyushchikov1 1RUDN University, Russia, Moscow, 117198, Miklouho-Maclay’s Street , 6

2Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control" of RAS, Russia, 117312, Moscow, prospect

60-letia Octiabria, 9 3EMERCOM, Russia, Moscow, 121352, st. Davydkovskaya, 7

There is a large amount of information about the meaning of civilization for the population of

the Earth. However, in this information environment, not enough attention is paid to explaining

to people about cognitive distortions in the perception of the risk of the destruction of

civilization. Cognitive distortions - all sorts of systematic errors in thinking, as well as patterned

deviations that occur in certain situations, which are based on distorted judgments about

compliance with safety requirements. When it comes to the “human factor” as a source of

accidents and catastrophes, the root cause is cognitive distortions in people who depend on their

health and safety. The consequence of this is that many people experience cognitive distortions

in assessing the role and place of civilization, they do not understand what level of civilizational

support of a person and social structure is currently needed. What can separate regions,

countries, municipalities, each person lose in choosing and performing certain actions that are

at first glance correct and what negative consequences this may entail for the safety of human

life. As a result of cognitive distortions of people in the minds of many, they take the path of

destructive influence on society and civilization, join different groups carrying destructive

ideas. A quantitative assessment of the level of such cognitive distortions allows us to

reasonably form measures to level the impact of cognitive distortions on sustainable

development. The assessment of cognitive distortions is based on the methodology of criterion

modeling allowing to achieve the reduction and elimination of cognitive distortions in the

safety assessment. The article shows the importance of solving the problem of reducing

cognitive distortion while providing security. A description of the basic methods for

constructing structural and core-based models, methods for evaluating the fulfillment of criteria

and indicative risk assessment is given. Methods for assessing cognitive distortions, detected

and eliminated when using the methods of criterial modeling, are presented. Presents the results

of the application of these techniques on the example of different areas of activity. As a result,

it was revealed that erroneous statements about the state of security caused by cognitive

distortions averaged about one third of the total number of statements about the state of

security, and the use of criterial modeling made it possible not only to identify these distortions,

but also to eliminate them, thereby preventing the possibility of accidents and disasters due to

non-compliance with safety requirements.


94

Disasters Resilience of Infrastructure to Natural and Human-Caused Hazards

Givi Gavardashvili

Ts. Mirtskhulava Water Management Institute of Georgian Technical University

60, Ave. I. Chavchavadze, 0169, Tbilisi, Georgia

This project has the objective of developing and introducing a national strategy and action plan

for managing risks and enhancing resilience due to natural and human-caused hazards (including

terrorism) for Georgia taking into consideration the Sendai international strategy 2015-2025

(Sendai City, Japan) on the reduction of natural and human-caused hazards including ecological

terrorism.

The project will also examine potential improvements in practices by governmental and non-

profit non-governmental organizations connected with risk management in order to create an

effective, integrated and consistent national planning practices and responses concerning the risk

management and resilience enhancement, including prevention, neutralization and recovery, of

natural and human-caused hazards.

− Hazard Analysis - In this task, hazards will be identified as they relate to infrastructure

with special attention to dam failure caused by the natural disasters and terrorist attack;

− Resilience and Risk Management Framework - The Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk

Analysis (CAPRA) Model, which provides a quantitative approach for all-hazard risk

analysis (Ayyub et al. 2007) will be used as a basis for a framework with updates based

on resilience related methods as provided by Ayyub (2013 and 2015);

− Inundation Analysis - in this task, we will study extreme waves in the reservoir formation

and flow hazard forecasting, mathematical modeling based on the theory of non-small

amplitude waves ripple boundary between the two (2D) and three (3D) dimensional

mathematical models and numerical formulation of the solution;

− Impact and Consequence Analysis - In this task, we will examine methods and principles

to assess the impacts to populations in the South Caucasus region in terms of the quality

of life using statistical development by using social survey of these populations;

− Recovery and Resilience - In this task, recovery will be studied for the purpose of

enhancing resilience;

− Risk and Resilience Management - The focus of this task is on risk reduction and

enhancing resilience. Strategies will identified relating to dams.


95

Zalomka-Underground Stream And Eastern Hercegovina Soils

Vesna Tunguz1, Ljiljana Nesic2, Otilija Miseckaite2 1University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Agriculture, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina

2University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia

3Aleksandra s Stulginskis University, Akademija, Lithuania

The land is one of the basic natural resources, and as a natural good in function in plant

production for food production.

The territory of the Republic of Srpska is divided into two river basin districts: 1. River Sava

basin with rivers: Una, Vrbas, Ukrina, Bosna, Drina, and 2. The regional river basin of the

Trebišnjica river consists of river basins: the Trebišnjica basin and the Neretva basin. Gacko

and Nevesinje field is a karst field and is virtually the only oasis of arable land in the region

studied. Nevertheless, nothing significant has been done in this area over the past decade to

protect land resources from damage and permanent destruction.

The entire area of the Gacko and Nevesinje fields has a karst character and is scarce with

surface watercourses, especially in the summer months. Zalomka is underground stream. It

springs at the Gacko field, and in the upper stream it is also called Djeropa. Zalomka stretches

across the Nevesinje field and it springs in numerous sinks. During the dry period, Zalomka

gets dry, while in the humid, rainy, period it is richer in water. Watercourses in this area are

particularly full in the spring after snow melting. When the time of the drought occurs

afterwards, only the deepest sinks remain for a long time filled with water. So the sink of

Zalomka has got always water in its middle course and makes it one of the most important

summer water reservoirs.

During the studied area, two profiles of fluvial soil were open, and profile no. 13 represents the

fluvial soil of the studied area (Gradina site).

The construction of the reservoirs Nevesinje and Zalomka on the river Zalomka (whose waters

flows in underground stream towards spring of Buna and Bunica) will also provide protection

form the floods of the now endangered, primarily, agricultural areas of the Gacko and

Nevesinje Fields.


96

Adaptation of the method of rapid analysis of liquid packaged products for

recognition of counterfeit alcohol

Vladimir Belozerov1, Vyacheslav Vorotilov2, Pavel Obukhov1

1Don State Technical University, 344003, Russia, Rostov-on-Don,

2JSC "Scientific and Technical Enterprise AVIATEST", 344006, Russia, Rostov-on-Don

The report presents the results of the analysis of methods and means of quality control of

packaged liquid alcoholic products and identification of counterfeit products, which indicate that,

despite the fact that manufacturers protect their products against counterfeiting, the volumes of

counterfeit products do not decrease, and the number of deaths from alcohol substitutes is more

than half all poisoning. At the same time, the statistics of «Rospotrebnadzor» indicate that

counterfeit accounts for more than one third of all alcoholic beverages sold.

Based on the analysis of regulatory and technical documents of food products, an important part

of which is the recipe, as well as methods for testing alcoholic products for their identification

and compliance with standards and technical conditions of production, we selected a method of

weight impedance spectroscopy and a number of patents of the Russian Federation, which

developed the model of express analysis of alcoholic beverages.

Ways to adapt the method of weight impedance spectroscopy for alcoholic beverage products are

proposed, on the basis of which, in the course of further research of a number of alcoholic

products, their similarity criteria will be determined, allowing to identify both the product and its

quality, as well as the cover-sensor and portable automated express complex control of packaged

alcoholic beverages, without opening the container.


97

Integrate management of water reservoirs problems

Lia Matchavariani, Giorgi Metreveli, Zaza Gulashvili Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, 0128, Tbilisi, Georgia

Within the projects, financed by National Scientific Foundation of Georgia, our studied connect

with necessity of creation and operation of water reservoirs. The development of hydroelectric

power creates serious conflicts in coastal security and population safety, that is caused by the

need to create reservoirs on the mountainous rivers. The dam of water reservoir blocks sediment

stream that is necessary to protect the coastline. In addition, accumulated material in the

reservoir gradually raises tributary channels, thus increasing the likelihood of devastating

catastrophic floods of communities and infrastructure. In Georgia this problem had worsened

since the construction of cascades of reservoirs on Chorokhi river and its tributaries. These hydro

power plants will withhold river sediments for centuries, eventually destroying the coastline and

threatening settlements. To avoid development of such events it was necessary to create a

method that would simultaneously save the environment from destruction and provide significant

financial benefit. Because of that it was necessary to find out the sedimentation rate of the

reservoir and to study the space-time dynamics of its silting prism. The two-year natural

experiment was arranged on three small mountainous very sedimental rivers. The findings of the

field examinations of these experiments and of operational reservoirs are generalized in the

conclusions: The formation of silting prism continues until river produces an "equilibrium

channel". Its inclination allows to transport sediment to the lower basins; The silting prism

consists of the main part and the tail end. The first one is in the reservoir, the second is its

continuation in the slopes; The volume and length of the silting prism are 1.5 times higher than

the design parameters of the reservoir; The most effective way to minimize the consequences of

hydro dam is to continually remove beach-maker sediments via the quarry system.

As for the assessment of the impact of reservoirs on the Environment and public safety, it is

planned to develop the methods to assess the negative impacts of water reservoirs and identify

the ways to prevent or mitigate them. A new type of a mathematical expression to calculate the

probability of the impact of water reservoir on the population and infrastructural safety will be

used for the first time. The impact of the water reservoir on the climate will be evaluated on the

background of ongoing climate fluctuations by using analog and mathematical statistical

methods. The impact of the water reservoir on the sea coastal zone will be evaluated by using the

drift balance method used to determine the annual drift volume and identify the ways to

eliminate the deficit. The impact of the water reservoir on the ground water volume and regime

will be evaluated by using the filtration and water reservoir water balance methods, which can be

adapted to concrete water reservoirs by means of monitoring of filtered water. Considering the

fact that to date, there is no method to assess the probability or risks of the safety of the headrace

population and infrastructure, a method of “predicting the balance bed” will be developed, which

can be used to evaluate the hazards of heightening the beds of the tributaries.

For the first time in the national and international practice, the complex methods, allowing

avoiding wrong decisions when selecting a water reservoir location and type of regulation and

location of the settled areas will be developed. The obtained results will serve as a basis for the

new modernized method to calculate the volume of the boundary water reservoir silting and

duration of exploitation.

Acknowledgements. This work was supported by Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation

of Georgia (SRNSFG) [FR-18-009].


98

Experience of applying space technology in minimizing the risk of natural and

teсhnological disasters in Azerbaijan

Ramiz Mamedov1, Khosiyat Ismatova2, Natavan Jafarova1

1ANSA Baku Azerbaijan 2National Aviation Academy, Baku, Azerbaijan

Aerospace monitoring of ecologically dangerous risks for population and territories is an

effective mechanism of control to prevent extreme situations and minimize their consequences.

In Azerbaijan first experiments were obtained while participating in projects to combat

desertification, creating cadaster of polluted manufacturing wastes of lands, monitoring of

floods, actions of mud volcanoes, dynamics of coastal zones while changing the level of Caspian

sea, leakage of oil on marine surface, preserving national parks, evaluating social-economic

development of territories.

Absheron peninsula of Azerbaijan is a densely populated territory, but both on land and coastal

territories works on drilling to extract, refining and transporting oil have been conducted. Thus, it

is important to pay attention to developing and deploying technologies of preventative evaluation

and early diagnosis of consequences of soil, marine and environmental pollution. Currently,

space and geoinformation technologies play an important role where one of the major ways is to

create digital model of terrain and land (DMT and DML), geoinformation analysis of spatial

information both as space and on land measurement. Here we represent informational analytical

system of spatial information of Absheron peninsula, which includes digital models of lands,

terrain, geomorphology, desertification, polluted lands, dynamics of coastal zones, land usage,

social-economic situation.

Another not less important problem is an issue of preventing floods, landslides, mudflows and

evaluating their consequences. According to space pictures from different times, it is possible to

track zones of floods from last years, evaluate flood hazard zoning, model zoning and direction

of floods based on digital models of terrains. In the mountainous territories of three digital

models of terrain allow to consider slopes, exposition, curvature of slopes and other

geomorphological parameters to evaluate landslide and mudflow hazards. By using data of

satellite Azersky, we supply data basis of digital models of terrains and lands for various

territories of Azerbaijan.

In order to study an influence of natural and technological disaster hazards on safety of

population, data on social-economic development of territories play an important role. In this

area works on creating maps of modern socio-economic development of territories, demography,

health, education, manufacturing and agriculture are also conducted.

Thus, created digital models of territories of Azerbaijan may serve as timely, operational and

necessary information to respond quickly to extreme situations, evaluation of consequences and

prediction of risk occurrence.


99

About the condition of physical stability of the Mingechevir dam

Emil Gafarov, Seymur Mammadov Department of Emergency Situations and Human Life Safety


In our opinion, the value of horizontal displacement of the dam ridge (ΔS) is the most significant

for the diagnosis and assessment of the safety of the Mingechaur alluvial dam. The value of the

ridge displacement, as a diagnostic parameter, characterizes well the state of the “dam-reservoir”

system and is easily controlled both quantitatively and qualitatively.

Observations show that after numerous cycles of repetitive filling of the Mingechevir reservoir

(from maximum to minimum and back), the horizontal displacements of the ridge begin to

change quasi-elastic. Wherein, the irreversible (residual) movements of the dam ridge practically

reach their maximum and their further increments are close to zero by the end of this period.

Based on this legitimacy, the state of the dam is considered normal if the following inequality

holds: ΔSres(t1) > ΔSres(t2) > ΔSres(t3) > … > ΔSres(tn) → 0,where ΔSres(t1), ΔSres(t2), and etc. -

natural values of increments of the irreversible (residual) component of horizontal displacements

at controlled points of the dam ridge in the first and subsequent cycles of operation under

pressure; t1, t2, … tn - measurement cycles in the first and subsequent years.

After the transition of the horizontal displacements of the ridge to the quasi-elastic stage (after

many years of normal exploitation), the condition of normal operation can be given the form:

ΔSrev(tn) ≈ ΔSrev(tn-1) ≈ ΔSrev(tn-2) ≈ … ≈ const, where ΔSrev (tn) ≈ ΔSrev(tn-1) and etc. - natural

values of horizontal quasi-elastic (reversible) displacements in controlled points of the ridge in

the first and subsequent years after the attenuation of irreversible displacements.

With a continuous process of changing the increments of irreversible (residual) horizontal

displacements of the dam ridge, its condition should be assessed as potentially dangerous, but

when increasing in time - as a pre-emergency.

Criterion K1, which sets the boundary between normal and potentially dangerous states in the i -

th year, is recommended as a condition: ΔSres (ti) ≈ ΔSres(ti-1) ± δ , where, δ - is the error in

measuring displacements.

As a criterion for K2, which sets the boundary between potentially dangerous and pre-emergency

states in the i-th year, the following condition can be recommended: ΔSres(ti) > ΔSres(ti-1)

Thus, the possible conditions of the dam according to precipitation are characterized by the

ratios: a) Normal: ΔSres(ti) < ΔSres(ti-1) ± δ; b) Potencially dangerous: ΔSres(ti) ≈ ΔSres(ti-1) ± δ;

c) Pre-emergency: ΔSres(ti) > ΔSres(ti-1) ± δ. Besides the procedure for comparing the measured

(calculated) indicators of mixing of the dam crest with their criterial values, the diagnostic

control includes a comparison of the measured diagnostic indicator with its predicted value. That

is, besides verifying the fulfillment (or non-fulfillment) of the above three conditions, the

diagnostic indicator should be monitored in the confidence interval predicted for the actual loads

at the time of the test: ΔSpred - δ ≤ ΔSmeas ≤ ΔSpred + δ, where, ΔSmeas - is measured

(calculated by measured) value of diagnostic indicator; ΔSpred - is the value of the diagnostic

indicator predicted for real loads and the effects of a deterministic or statistical predictive model;

Δ - permissible error of the predictive model.

Thus, the simulation of a satellite geodetic controlling system for deformations of the

Mingechevir dam, along with a system of digital water level recorders with GSM-

communication in most of the important points of the Kura River, the Ganykh River (Alazani)

and the Gabyrry River (Iori) upstream from Mingechevir dam can contribute to the establishment

of an Early Warning Center and Monitoring of the dam condition and the development of a

permanent monitoring program.


100


interactions

Vugar Aliyev AMIR Technical Services LLC

Article is devoted studying of water supply infrastructure of Azerbaijan in a context of

interdependence and interaction of elements and systems of a global critical infrastructure.

Protection of critical infrastructure is extremely important for Azerbaijan, which is at war

conditions with neighboring Armenia. A critical infrastructure concerns objects and systems,

failure in which work will be reflected on health, safety and well-beings of citizens of the

country and its sustainable development as a whole.

As a case study analyzed critical infrastructure vulnerability of the Djeyranbatan water supply

system, which laid on Azerbaijan-Russian transport corridor. On the given corridor with a width

2км and length 1km, in holy place area between Zarat and Beshdam villages of Siyazan district,

are laid 11 important elements. Strong earthquake or terrorist threats, for example, explosion in a

hillside, etc., will by all means lead to destruction simultaneously several elements of a critical

infrastructure, including elements of water supply. Failure in work of critical infrastructure

anyway to be reflected on health, safety and well-beings of citizens of the country. The elements

of above mentioned critical infrastructure is managing by software. Such control systems, are

vulnerable, also to cyber-attacks.

In summary it is necessary to note, in spite of the reason, for example, earthquake, terrorist

attack, military blows and others etc., destruction of one system of a global infrastructure by all

means stimulates cascade destruction of associated elements and systems of other infrastructures.

In such narrow and dense transport corridors as Azerbaijan-Russia, restoration of ability to live

of all set demands some years of laborious work. Therefore, they need reliable system of the

prevention and protection.


101

The global problem of natural and man-made disasters

Aliona Tihon State University of Medicine and Pharmacy "Nicolae Testemitanu",Chisinau, Republic of Moldova

The economic development of states, the welfare and health of nations are under constant threat

from natural and man-made disasters. At the same time, if in the past such phenomena were

extremely rare and their consequences were limited to individual regions or regions of one

country, then by the end of the twentieth century the situation changed radically. Natural and

man-made disasters have acquired a destructive global character, both for the economy of the

planet and for its ecology. In recent years, the number of natural hazards and large man-made

disasters has been steadily increasing.

Risks of emergency situations arising in the process of global climate change and economic

activity, pose a significant threat to the population and economic facilities. Over the past 20

years, more than 3 million people in the world have been victims of man-made and natural

disasters, and over 800 million people have suffered. Among the most devastating natural

disasters in the world are tropical storms and typhoons, as well as floods. They account for about

one third of the total number of natural disasters. Countries near ocean shores often suffer from

devastating tropical typhoons and hurricanes. For example, in Bangladesh over the past 30 years,

more than 700 thousand people have died from typhoons and hurricanes. The most destructive

typhoon occurred in November 1970, when more than 300 thousand people died in this country

and 3.6 million people were left homeless. In the remaining third, earthquakes and droughts

prevail, accounting for 9–13% of the total number of natural disasters, respectively. Earthquake

is one of the most terrible phenomena of nature. In China alone over the past four centuries (16-

20 centuries), more than 1.2 million people have died from earthquakes. Among the man-made

emergencies in the world, up to two thirds are accidents and disasters in transport.

Disaster risk assessment is a key decision element and decision making process. Speaking about

reducing risks and damage from natural and man-made disasters, it should be noted that

emergency situations cannot be completely prevented, but the risk of damage can be minimized

by timely replacement of dilapidated equipment, vehicles, buildings and structures,

implementation of monitoring systems for their operation, and strict implementation of

established work regulations and compliance with safety regulations.

An important role in reducing risks and damages is called upon to play in advance the

development of possible scenarios for the development of emergency situations and on the basis

of taking measures to reduce the danger to personnel of enterprises and the population living

near potentially dangerous objects, as well as high-quality theoretical and practical training of

personnel and emergency services for work in emergency situations.

Among man-made processes, the greatest danger is induced seismicity, waterlogging, lowering

of the Earth's surface. The problem of natural hazards and the social and material losses

associated with it are determined not only by the natural conditions of the territories, but also by

the socio-economic situation of the peoples living there. The greatest social losses are observed

in underdeveloped countries, where a high population size and its weak protection are the cause

of mass death and enormous human suffering during the development of natural disasters. In

economically developed countries, the death rate is much smaller, but the development of

dangerous phenomena here is accompanied by huge material losses.


102

Nonlinear deformation and run-up of tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical

simulations and analytical predictions

Ahmed Abdalazeez1, Ira Didenkulova1,2, Denys Dutykh3 1Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, 12618, Tallinn, Estonia 2Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev, 603950, Nizhny Novgorod,

Russia 3Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LAMA, 73000, Chambéry, France

Evaluation of wave run-up characteristics is one of the most important tasks in coastal

oceanography. This knowledge is required as for planning coastal structures and protection

works, as for short-term tsunami forecast and tsunami warning.

The nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity in the

conjoined water basin, which consists of the constant depth section and a plane beach is studied

numerically and analytically in the framework of the nonlinear shallow water theory.

Analytically, wave propagation along the constant depth section and its run-up on a beach are

considered independently without taking into account wave reflection from the toe of the bottom

slope. The propagation along the bottom of constant depth is described by Riemann wave, while

the wave run-up on a plane beach is calculated using rigorous analytical solutions of the

nonlinear shallow water theory following the Carrier-Greenspan approach. The numerical

scheme employs the finite volume method and is based on the second order UNO2

reconstruction in space and the third order Runge-Kutta scheme with locally adaptive time steps.

The model is validated against experimental data.

Found analytically, that maximum run-up height of single waves of positive polarity on a beach

of a conjoined water basin depends on the wave front steepness at the toe of the bottom slope.

This dependence is general for single waves of different amplitudes and periods and can be

approximated by the power fit: ( )0.42

max 0 0/ /R R s s= .

This dependence is slightly weaker than the corresponding dependence for a sine wave,

proportional to the square root of the wave front steepness. The stronger dependence of a sine

wave run-up on the wave front steepness is consistent with the philosophy of N-waves.

Shown numerically, that all numerical curves for different wave amplitudes and periods, are

parallel to the analytical one. Therefore, for estimates one can use the analytical dependence on

the wave front steepness.


103

Modeling of Processes, Assessment and Minimization of Risks

Моделирование процессов, оценка и минимизация рисков

Classification and modelling of intersystem accidents for infrastructure-complex

areas

Valery Lesnykh1, Timofeeva Tatiana2

1Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis, Moscow, Davidkovskay Str., 7, Russiaan Federation 2State Management University, Moscow, Ryazaanski Prospect, 99, Russian Federation

Actively developing over the past few decades, the process of urbanization leads to an increase

in the number of infrastructure-complex areas. At the same time, the interdependence of critical

infrastructures is increasing, which, combined with the increasing frequency and scale of

anomalous natural processes, increases the risk of intersystem accidents. Fuel and energy supply

systems play a special role in the initiation and development of intersystem accidents.

Intersystem accidents can be characterized by cascading processes and disastrous consequences.

Such accidents are characterized by a high level of socio-economic consequences, affecting

various critical infrastructures (transport, water supply, telecommunications, etc.), which

requires the development of methods and models for assessing the conditions of their occurrence

and development. Despite the large number of activities in the field of risk analysis in critical

infrastructures, to date, the problems of risk analysis of intersystem accidents have been

investigated fragmentally and, to some extent, are of a qualitative nature. In the presentation the

problem of systematization and description of intersystem accidents is considered, and also the

variant of their classification is offered. The analysis of existing approaches to modeling and

quantitative assessment of the risk of intersystem accidents is made. The results of quantitative

assessments of the development of intersystem accidents in electricity and gas supply systems

based on simulation are presented.


104

Innovation projects risks monitoring when achieving company’s strategic targets

Elena Patrusheva1, Elena Lifanova2 1

The Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation, 150003, Yaroslavl, Russia

2 P.G. Demidov Yaroslavl State University, 150003, Yaroslavl, Russia

The strategic business efficiency management requires implementation of investment projects

which often have innovative features. The risks arising in long and difficult processes of their

development, realization and operation of project’s product are considerable. They appear to be a

deviation of projects parameters from their initial levels that decreases efficiency of the project

and prevents the customer from achieving strategic objectives. At the same time modern

strategic setup in a type of business value growth is equivalent to the project’s net present value

(NPV)), and display of risks in the form of a negative project parameters deviation does not

allow to achieve goals. In project management focused on competences of project team the

targets on creation of project’s product with sufficient quality in time at limited resources not

always coordinated with a purpose of project customer business – growth of its efficiency, are

set.

We assume that all project processes as well as processes of innovative product operation

following them demand on-time monitoring and control in order to achieve the required

efficiency level. At the same time the arising changes of innovation projects key characteristics

and also cost of the adjusting procedures have to be estimated, and the set level of projects

efficiency has to be a reference point of monitoring and regulation. Basic conditions of

risks/efficiency management are: modeling of interrelations of project parameters with the

amount of net present value, coverage of the entire project’s life cycle, information support of

monitoring carrying out. As a result of this in innovative projects risk management process it is

necessary to include adherence of the following conditions:

1. To change an approach to identification of the innovation project risks which in standards of

project management contact mainly display of external factors, but which can arise in a subsoil

of project works and relationship of project participants.

2. In standards of project management it is established that implementation of control

procedures is carried out at a management stage "organization and control of performance", and

development of corrective actions - at the stage "analysis and regulation". However at the stage

"planning" there can already be deviations of planned cost and time of works execution levels

from that of put in efficiency calculation at a stage of project initiation. It will cause

corresponding changes of their analogs in financial model of efficiency calculation - the amount

of investments and duration of an investment stage.

3. At the subsequent stages of project management, besides control of cost and time the quality

level which if decreased can cause in operation of project product the reduction of operating

income amount, becomes important characteristic of the project.

4. At the stage "organization and control of performance" the process of an innovative product

development which is often quite expensive and long-term becomes an important task of project

works monitoring. Its delay causes not only increase in duration of the project investment phase,

but also decrease in the long term of the operational results and its net present project value as a

innovative product novelty advantages loss.

5. All the deviations mentioned in previous points, as well as expenses for the actions

correcting them it is necessary to consider at regular revaluation of the project cost efficiency

level. They can reduce inadmissibly its level which limit has to be set by the project’s customer.


105

Assessment of seismic risk in Almaty

Yeraly Shokbarov Kazakh Scientific-Research Project Institute of Construction and Architecture, Kazakhstan, Almaty, 21

Solodovnikov str, www.kazniisa.kz

Almaty (Verny, Almaty) was founded in 1867 and is currently the largest administrative,

economic and cultural center of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The territory of the city is located in

one of the most seismically active regions of Central Asia. Almaty seismogenic zone is bounded

on the South with the TRANS-ili, on the South-East to North-Kungeiskiy, in the South-West

with Kemin, in which was located the foci of strongest earthquakes. Over the past 100 years,

there have been three major earthquakes: Verny in 1887, Chilik in 1889 and Kemin in 1911. The

magnitude of the latter was close to 8.2 at an intensity in the epicenter of 10 to 11 points. As a

result of the earthquake in Verny buildings were destroyed and people were killed. In some areas

of the city formed gaps in the ground. In some places the width of the gaps was up to 1 m at a

depth of 5 m. In earthquake-prone regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan and in Almaty city, at

different times, work was carried out, according to expert estimates, seismic hazard and risk

survey of the condition of existing buildings. An expert assessment of the state of buildings in

earthquake-prone areas of Kazakhstan, carried out in 1990, showed that, for example, residential

buildings with a total area of 16.5 million m2 (19%) required seismic reinforcement; 10 million

m2 (12%) were subject to demolition. Expert assessment of buildings in earthquake-prone areas

of Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Union has not been carried out for more than thirty years.

This work was resumed in 2017. For seismic hazard and risk assessment of objects of housing

and civil purposes of Almaty was held a two-year (2017-2018g.) research work (passport) for

buildings and structures by city Almaty. In 2017, the certification covered 7027 real estate

objects in Almaty, including 6493 apartment buildings and 534 social facilities (schools,

kindergartens, hospitals, clinics). In 2018, a survey of 3169 housing and civil facilities in Almaty

was conducted, including 1683 apartment buildings, 1486 civil and public buildings

(administrative buildings, shopping centers, sports facilities, school and preschool buildings,

sanatorium buildings, recreation and tourism buildings, polyclinics). Based on the results of

certification, electronic passports of the surveyed buildings were created with an assessment of

their seismic vulnerability, an expert assessment of the economic costs of seismic reinforcement

and economic damage to social losses from the effects of possible earthquakes of different

intensity was given. As a result of certification, an electronic database on seismic vulnerability of

buildings and structures was created and work is being done to create an electronic map of

seismic risk in Almaty.

http://www.kazniisa.kz/


106

Natural and industrial risk assessment and forecasting at the project phase of the

Second Severo-Muysky Tunnel

Mikhail Lebedev1, Kirill Romanevich1 1

OJSC “NIPII “Lenmetrogiprotrans”, 191002, Bolshaya Moskovskaya str., 2, Saint-Petersburg, Russian

Federation

The Severo-Muysky Tunnel (SMT) is located on the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) which is

one of the largest railways of the world with a length of 4,287 km, leading from Eastern Siberia

to the Pacific coast of the Russian Far East. The tunnel was opened for the train traffic on the

5th of December 2003 – 19 years later after the construction of remaining sections was

completed. Therefore the SMT is so called “golden link” of the BAM. The prior to the

completion of the SMT, the railway communication on this section was carried out via a

temporary bypass line through an avalanche-hazardous mountain pass through two loop

tunnels, multiple bridges and rocky lacets with slopes up to 40 ‰. The construction of the SMT

intermittently lasted 28.5 years in extremely difficult mining and geological conditions, and

also critical economic and political situation in the country. Nowadays the SMT is a complex of

the structures which includes a single track tunnel with a length of 15,343 m, an exploratory

transport and a drainage adit parallel to the main tunnel, a number of drainage galleries, vertical

shafts and shaft sidings. The depth of the mine workings reaches 1 km.

At present the cargo traffic of the BAM is constantly growing and there is a need to build a

duplicate tunnel by means of which the throughput on this section of the BAM will be greatly

increased from 16 to 100 million tons per year.

A key element of the Second Severo-Muysky Tunnel safe construction is the assessment and

forecasting of natural and industrial risk at the project phase. The main method for risk

identification here is to consider the past experience of the SMT construction: the enclosing

granite rock mass is highly burst-prone, complicated by plenty large discontinuous faults and

fractures filled with friable, thermal water saturated and soft fragmental rock with a level of

hydrostatic pressure up to 5 MPa – these circumstances were the main reasons for emergency

compression of the tunnel boring mechanisms, as well as catastrophic rushes and collapses in

faces with human losses during rock tunnelling. The presence of discontinuous structures is

determined by the SMT location in the mountain ridge of the rift basins forming the northeast

flank of the Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ) – the intracontinental split of lithospheric plate developing

under the complex field of neotectonic and modern stresses. Vertical movements of the BRZ

splits reach 20 mm per year, and horizontal movements reach 17 mm per year. Thousands of

weak shocks and up to 2 strong earthquakes occur here annually according to the International

Seismological Centre. The largest of them is 1957 Muyskoye earthquake (М=7.5-7.9). It is

rated as catastrophic along the length of the surface discontinuity zone up to 25 km, vertical

displacements up to 3.3 m and the perceptibility area of over 700 km from the epicentre with 11

out of 12 intensity degrees by MSK-64. A wide range of natural risks is complemented by the

industrial impact of construction on the enclosing granite rock mass.

Risk assessment and forecasting at the project phase of the Second Severo-Muysky Tunnel will

allow choosing the optimal route for the new tunnel, to determine the construction technology

and develop preventive measures adequate to predictable risks. Due to the extreme

heterogeneity of the granite rock mass it is also necessary to perform a short-term assessment of

engineering and geological risks, detailing and updating the forecast of possible complications

ahead of the tunnel faces by means of the complex geotechnical monitoring (GTM) system

during construction.

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BB%D0%B5#%D0%A3%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BD


107

Natural and industrial risks minimization in the course of operation of Sochi

Olympic Tunnels

Mikhail Lebedev1, Vladimir Maslak1, Konstantin Bezrodny1, Yury Isaev1 1

OJSC “NIPII “Lenmetrogiprotrans”, 191002, Bolshaya Moskovskaya str., 2, Saint-Petersburg, Russian

Federation

In connection with preparations for the 2014 Winter Olympics a number of unique structures

including transport infrastructure facilities were built in Sochi, Russian Federation. Thus, there

were built 6 railway and 3 highway tunnels with about 32.5 km total length of underground

excavations on the site of combined road Adler – “Alpika-Service”.

The geological section crossed by the tunnel complexes is characterized by a large variety of

rocks which are represented by magmatic, sedimentary metamorphosed and unmetamorphosed

laminated rocks of Mesozoic age. The sections of the tunnels pass through both solid rock

masses and a large number of tectonic zones and quaternary deposits cut-ins which easily

acquire a mobile state under external influence. All advanced technologies were applied to

ensure the sustainability of the rock mass during the construction of the tunnels.

Hundreds of sensors were installed to control the stress-strain state of the “lining – enclosing

rock mass” system during the construction of the tunnels, including the structures of tunnel

support and linings. The installation of this equipment was carried out with the view that it will

be used to predict the technical conditions of the tunnels during their operation in the future.

Considering the natural risk in course of operation these engineering structures, i.e. the seismic

activity in the region, wide range of engineering-geological and hydrogeological conditions; as

well as industrial risk, i.e. the occurrence of man-made accidents, the geotechnical monitoring

system was developed and implemented as a part of the process and control system for the

operation of transport tunnels. Geotechnical monitoring consists of:

- Stress-strain state control in tunnel lining;

- Assessing the stability of the “lining - enclosing rock mass” system by the technique based on

measuring the natural electromagnetic radiation (NEMR);

- Seismic monitoring.

All test equipment installed in the linings of “Olympic” tunnels was connected to automated

geotechnical monitoring system that allows controlling the stress-strain state of lining in real

time mode.

The information from instrumentation equipment of nine tunnels goes to the monitoring servers

that are based in the highway and railway control centers where it is to be processed, visualized

and entered in the database. The most valuable in the implemented system of the geotechnical

monitoring from the point of view of the operation is the possibility to forecast the technical

conditions of the tunnel’s lining. This kind of monitoring system is the most extensive project in

the Russian Federation and has indisputable advantages over the existing instructions and

methodological recommendations for assessing the technical conditions of the transport tunnels.


108

The challenges of sustainable solution for reducing risk levels in the Sarez lake

area, Tajikistan

Jafar Niyazov1, Mirzo Saidov2, Majid Gulayozov3, Mustafo Safarov3, Sukhbatullo Saidov4 1Institute of water problems, hydropower and ecology Academy of Sciences, Republic Tajikistan

2Research center of Geodesy and Cartography; 3Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of

Central Asia (Dushanbe); 4Tajik National University)

The article is devoted to the research and monitoring of Sarez lake, Usoy natural dam,

engineering geology, hydrographic, geophysical mapping of the study area conducted over many

years, as well as the initial results of field observations using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)

on July 2018 conducted jointly by the Research Center for ecology and environment of Central

Asia (Dushanbe), Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan, Committee on emergency

situations and civil defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan and Xinjiang

Institute of ecology and geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Sarez Lake is located in Gorno-Badakhshan province of Republic Tajikistan (south-east). The

Sarez Lake formed on February 18, 1911, after a great earthquake, when the Murghab River was

blocked by a big landslide. The length of the lake is about 76 km; Average depth is 185 meters;

Maximum depth is 505 m; water surface elevation about 3263 m and about 16 km3volume of

water. Whereas the probability of breach in the Usoy dam is minimal, while the presence of a

monitoring and early warning system in the area of Sarez lake in emergency suggests an

acceptable level of risk for the population living downstream of Sarez lake.

Security of settlements located in the Murgab river valley and located below the Sarez Lake have

required an integrated and effective approach based on modern GIScience and Remote sensing

technologies. The aerial photographs of the area using UAVs were obtained for the first time in

the history of the study of Sarez Lake. The researchers carried out a lot of work on the aerial

survey of Sarez Lake adjacent to the Usoy dam, using UAVs on the area of 70 km2 with a

resolution of 20 cm and Usoy dam on the area of 10 km2 with a resolution of 10 cm. The whole

investigated area was divided into zone 102, size 0.5x0.37 km; the results (images) are placed in

the compiled Atlas.


109

On the introduction of technical innovations to reduce risk in development of

territories with high seismicity

Fakhraddin Gabibov1, Yerali Shokbarov2, Huseyn Bayat1

1Intellectual Property Agency, AZ 1001, Baku, Azerbaijan

2Kazakh Research and Design Institute of Construction and Architecture, 050036, Almaty, Kazakhstan

3Technical University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran

According to the research results, it is proposed to determine the probability of receiving damage

from an earthquake as a product of the probability of formation and realization of a negative

cause or occurrence of a negative event of a certain type and the probability of obtaining a

certain damage during an earthquake when a negative event of a certain type is realized. The

average seismic risk is considered as a product of the total probabilities based on the distribution

laws of negative causes realization and on the distribution laws of damage from the earthquake

with the implementation of negative events. The reduction of seismic risk at the implementation

of technical innovations and increase the risk in speculative approaches are graphically shown.


110

“Green structures” as a tool for reducing the environmental risks of urban

ecosystems

Tetiana Tkachenko1, Olena Voloshkina1

1 Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Kyiv, 03037, Ukraine

Modern urbocenosis is an unstable artificial ecosystem. Under the influence of natural and

man-made factors, urbocenoses are subject of environmental, economic and social risks.

Optimal using and restoration of natural areas is one of the ways to reduce the risks of

urbocenoses, a way to increase their stability and sustainable development.

Our analysis of the state of the green areas of the city of Kiev (Ukraine) showed insufficient

planting of common areas (below the accepted standard of 20 m2 per person), as well as the

unsatisfactory condition of the territories of limited and special using. The problem is aggravated by the inability to expand green zones of the urban system due to the compacted

buildings and large zones of asphalted areas. One of the ways to solve this problem and

minimize risks is “green building”, based on environmental friendliness, energy efficiency, and care for future generations. “Green building” involves the using of “green technologies”, which

include “green structures” - “green slopes”, eco-parking, “green roofs”, vertical and front gardening. According to ISO - 14040-14043, modern construction is considered as a chain of

complex stages: raw materials extraction (1) → materials production (2) → design

(3) → construction site preparation (4) → building (5) → operation of the finished object (6)

→ reuse (7) → recycling (8). Almost at every stage of construction, it is possible to reduce the

environmental hazard by introducing “green structures”. At the first and second stages, it is

possible to reduce the intensity of the extraction of building materials through the using of plant

biopolymers and recycled materials in the production of "green structures". At the third stage,

thanks to the "green planning", you can lay in the project of facade or roof gardening. At the

sixth stage during the operation of the facility, “green structures” perform environmental,

economic (energy efficiency) and social functions. At the seventh stage, the circuit is closed,

and the components of "green structures" can be reused. Due to the natural origin, “green

structures” are almost completely naturally utilized (the eighth stage), due to which the disposal

of the construction object “under zero” is carried out.


111

A modeling process for flood-prone areas and flood-risk assessment

Virgilio Anselmo Anselmo associati, 10023 Chieri, Italy

The maintained higher intensity of natural phenomena and the higher value of elements at risk

are becoming or should be a major concern for local administrations in modified human systems.

The paper presents a procedure to assess the flood-prone areas extent and the flooding severity in

alluvial floodplains of temperate and continental climate.

According to a consolidated procedure applied in Northern Italy, the process could be developed

following a number of steps and requirements.

First of all, the fluvial region must be assumed as the area where present morphology as well as

relict landforms can be detected.

Topography of the fluvial region should be surveyed according to a Lidar technique which may be

able to provide 1.5 points/m2 with an elevation accuracy of the order of ±15·10-2 m and a

planimetric accuracy of the order of ±30·10-2 m. The technique allows to separate the terrain

(DTM) from spurious objects (DSM) according to the protocol followed by the Italian Ministry

for the Environment. In such a way, the relevant features of the terrain (embankments, terraces,

etc.) likely to influence the flood propagation can be detected and supplied to the numerical

model.

Once the design flows have been assigned, flood-prone areas are delineated by means of the

numerical code Sobek-Rural developed by Deltares and flooded areas, water depth and velocity

maps can be provided with the required detail of information just by assigning the mesh

dimension (generally, 10x10 or 20x20 m).

The process is of affordable cost and it should be recommended as a preliminary tool for the

design of development plans. It should be of interest for the public administrations in countries of

quickly growing economies.

In already developed areas, the procedure is of value in the analysis of risk, of the efficiency of

the proposed protective works and of any action devised to risk mitigation.


112

Evaluation of magnitudes and parameters of earthquake earth in quasireal time

scale by neural network modeling

Olga Herasimenko, Michael Lazarenko Institute of Geophysics NAS,03142, Kiev,Ukraine

This article is devoted to an extremely important topic of searching for a short-term warning of

the entry of destructive earthquake shake by assessing in real-time conditions the characteristics

of the seismic process — magnitude and localization parameters of the earthquake source, using

the mathematical apparatus of neural network modeling. Earth's surface can be considered as

projection in this point of the dynamic processes occurring in the source of the earthquake, and

each projection (that is, signal recording) as an example of the behavior of a certain function,

whose arguments include, among other things, parameters that characterize output processes and

the path of the run of the seismic signal. On the basis of these considerations, the determination

of the magnitude and localization parameters of an earthquake can be formalized as a problem of

approximation of functions describing their behavior in space, by superposition’s of functions,

examples of this behavior. This superposition is carried out using networks of artificial neurons.

It is known that the least distorted part of the package of seismic waves is located in the first

parts of their recording, that is, in its P-part. Considering each seismogram as a graphical

projection of some image of an earthquake source and seismic wave propagation medium and

using the remarkable image feature that allows its properties to be reproduced, based on

information only about its part, we use neural network to estimate magnitude and localization

parameters of an earthquake, such as coordinates of the event and the depth of the hypocenter the

initial part of the seismic signal recording for a network seismic stations. To solve the problem,

we use a multi-layer, controlled, fully connected neural network of different architectures, the

training of which was carried out by the method of reverse error transmission. Of the entire set of

vectors of the general population, consisting of digital records 494x3 (E, N, Z projections of the

wave process), seismic events, recorded by a network of stations, an educational structure was

formed to form a matrix of codes, which has the ability to generalize the output set and thus

predict the behavior of the system which is modeled, or its individual elements. The environment

for the network of artificial neurons in our case is a set of training samples Bk of the input

vectors xik of the k-th process under study - digitized samples of waveform signals S (t) in the

time window [t - Δt, t]. In the role of a “teacher” who manages the modification of parameters,

the values of target values tik are estimates of two defined parameters of the source of excitation

of registered earthquakes: a) magnitude-depth M-h; b) the coordinates of the epicenter φ-λ. For

the operation of the network in operational mode, 39 examinations of earthquakes were

randomly selected from the database, which is 8% of the total number of analyzed data that were

saved for the exam. The trained neural network was excited by a signal (parameter vector)

formed from this test sample, and the network output was compared with the target values

indicated above. Each of the signals included in the training sample, regardless of the size of the

time window, is encoded by a 12-dimensional vector. This makes it possible, with the same

neural network architecture, consisting of four hidden layers of different power, to conclude that

the time windows of different duration are relatively informative. For events that did not

participate in the training of the network, comparing the results of modeling the depth of the

focus, the magnitude of the event, the latitude and longitude of the epicenter, with the catalog

values.

The simulation carried out confirms that the most informative and the least distorted are the

initial segments of the arrival of signals - the first seconds of the recorded records, regardless of

the characteristics of the sources and the energy level of the events being analyzed. The results of

neural network modeling confirm that the most informative and least distorted are the initial

segments of the entry of signals - the first seconds of the recorded records, regardless of the

characteristics of the sources and the energy level of the analyzed events.


113

Compliance of the computational model with the components of the natural-man-

made system is the most important condition for risk minimizing

Nikolay Petrov, Inna Nikonorova, Nadezhda Prokopyeva Chuvash State University, Cheboksary, Russia

Minimizing the risk from hazardous processes depends on the accuracy of forecasting the

conditions for reliable operation of the natural-man-made system. The accuracy of the forecast

largely depends on the accuracy of the computational model - the structural- kinematic scheme

of the interaction of technogenic components with components of the geological environment,

including components of the landslide system.

Real life shows that the main cause of many major emergencies in recent years, in particular,

during the construction of the M-7 highways (Sursky Spusk) and 1P-178 (Saransk-Sursky km84

+ 00 - km97 + 50) is low quality of exploratory work and, accordingly, computational models as

a result of: a) the bureaucratic trading system, which contributes to the seizure of objects of

design and construction by incompetent organizations; b) the illiteracy of prospectors, especially

in geomorphology, errors in determining the type of slopes, lack of recognition skills for

landslides and their parts (blocks, tiers, floors) during field surveys and interpretation of

aerospace photographs and topographic maps. And, as a result, we obtain incorrectly conducted

investigations, criminal, geological sections that have nothing to do with reality, according to

which only false design solutions are possible with disastrous consequences during construction.

In those cases when code calculations are performed on models built on incorrect geological

sections, the results of such calculations are obviously unsuitable for design work, regardless of

the quantity and quality of the used methods. Moreover, it is not the calculation methods that

determine the optimality of the stability coefficient (SC), but the quality of the calculated models

and the validity of the design characteristics of the soils of the displacement zone.

Systemic errors in calculating SC are often related to the survivability of two conditions (in fact,

errors), enshrined in regulatory documents, but not providing an optimal result: a) 1st delusion -

about the suitability of the design characteristics of soils, obtained by statistical processing of

laboratory data, for all calculations as initial parameters; b) 2nd - the geotechnical requirements

of the Building Rules (BR) 11-105-97, part II, paragraph 4.2.11, as the need to perform

"calculations by various methods in order to increase the reliability of the results obtained".

It has long been proven that for obtaining an optimal result, it is enough to have a single method

for solving the problem on the correct model with the calculated characteristics of the soils of the

displacement zone, specified by inverse calculations. It should be recalled that no methods, or

rather, no new mechanical and mathematical formulas for calculating stability, will not help to

improve the quality and accuracy of the calculation with insufficient consideration for the

engineering and geological components of this problem.

Minimizing the risk and damage from hazardous slope processes depends on the study of the

structure of the landslide system and the slope massif, harmonization of the interaction of the

components of the designed object with the components of the geological environment.

Professional analysis of engineering and geological factors is a decisive condition for the

correctness of the computational model, the accuracy of design decisions, and the minimization

of natural and man-made risks.


114

Modeling of an enterprise management competence-based capacity development in

the context of a modern risk management paradigm

Karina Alenina1, Nikolay Akatov2, Dmitriy Bryukhanov3

1 Academy of Digital Economics, Komsomolsky Ave., 41, Perm, Russia 2 Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Komsomolsky Ave., 29, Perm, Russia, 3 Demidov Yaroslavl State University, Jaroslavl, Sovetskiy street, 14, Jaroslavl, Russia

On the threshold of a new millennium, corporate executives around the world are facing risks

that were difficult to imagine ten years ago. In the “new economy” conditions the main factors of

uncertainty are: a) new technologies and the Internet; b) growing global competition; c)

increasing the freedom of trade and investment on a global scale; d) the emergence of complex

financial instruments; e) weakening of state regulation; e) changes in organizational structures as

a result of reductions, reengineering and mergers (with a significant increase in the number and

volume of mergers); g) the growing expectations of consumers of products and services.

The new paradigm of risk management in modern conditions consists not only in preparing for

the prevention of failures, but also in the desire to realize new opportunities. The modern

approach to risk management shifts the focus from fragmented, episodic activity, when managers

consider it necessary, to an integrated, continuous and expanded, aimed at finding new

opportunities.

The above mentioned requires the expansion of approaches to the development of the

competence capacity of enterprise management. It is necessary to develop competencies that are

relevant not only to identify and prevent threats and risks for the development strategy of the

enterprise, but also those that allow the detection and use of new opportunities at risk and the

formulation of new strategic priorities. It is especially important to be able to manage uncertainty

factors that can not only negatively but also positively affect the achievement of the goals of the

enterprise.

Therefore, the main sphere of manifestation and implementation of the competence-based

management capacity (CBMC) of the enterprise is the human behavior in situations of

uncertainty and risk.

Decision-making in situations, critical for the enterprise, dictates the need of attraction to group

reflexive activity not only top managers, but also experts in narrower spheres of production

activity (f.e. designers, technologists, logisticians, economists, etc.) which knowledge will allow

to carry out system situation analysis, and their competences will give the chance to find rational

solutions and to offer procedures of their realization.

Modeling of an enterprise management competence-based capacity development in the context

of a modern risk management paradigm demands coordination of a number of key aspects: a) the

theoretic-methodological approaches created within social psychology; b) paradigms and

principles of modern management; c) experience and modern practices of business management;

d) real opportunities of practical application of technologies of networking, digitalization,

computerization.

As the main functional feature of the hi-tech industrial enterprises is the dynamism and

turbulence of the business environment, the methodology of critical situations identification and

solvation has to be in a context of modern risk management paradigm. The article is devoted to

these aspects.


115

Model of split systems for fire and explosion protection of apartments of multi-

storey buildings and individual houses

Dmitry Abrosimov1, Valery Belozerov2, Maxsim Filimonov2

1JSC "Scientific and Technical Enterprise AVIATEST", 344006, Russia, Rostov-on-Don 2Don Sate technical university, 344003, Russia, Rostov-on-Don

The article presents the development of the “intellectualization” methodology for household

electrical appliances, split-systems in particular, for diagnostics of dangerous factors of fire and

explosion from household gas leaks in apartment residential buildings and individual houses.

Using the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of a previously developed split-system-

fire detector model, in which thermoelectronic protection modules, smoke and gas sensors are

installed, which detect dangerous fire factors and leakage of household gas, the need to use

multi-split systems with two or three internal units is proved , one of which is mandatory

installed in the kitchen and complexed with a gas meter having an electromagnetic valve for

shutting off the supply of household gas, as well as with instead of a centrifugal fan, we use a

thermomagnetic air separator, which turns on when hazardous factors of fire and explosion are

detected, separates and removes oxygen through the drainage hose to the outside, ensuring the

prevention of explosion or fire spreading in the protected room returned by inert gases (nitrogen,

carbon dioxide, etc.), by generating an audible alarm and an SMS call to the appropriate

emergency service.

The obtained results testify to the effectiveness of the use of multi-split systems modified in this

way, not only for ventilation and air conditioning in apartments of high-rise buildings and in

individual residential buildings, but also for their fire and explosion protection.


116

Risk assessment methods for a construction company

Rumella Jafarova Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction

An essential condition for the activity of entrepreneurial construction companies in the

investment area, aimed at increasing production volumes, stable profitability and successful

implementation of their social programs, is considering risks related to business and quality

management. A construction company of all types of activity or form of ownership with an

effective risk management system has significant competitive advantages in the market.

I have reviewed the main aspects of modern business risk:

1. Uncertainty and business risk, the relationship between risks and crises of a construction

company.

2. Business risk and risk management.

3. Description of threats and classification of business risks.

4. Techniques of influencing business risks.

5. Investment risk implies a total absence of profits or revenue shortfalls.

6. Financial risk depends on the sources of the entrepreneur’s funds and the state of these sources

in the company's balance sheet, in particular on the share of equity and debt capital, total assets,

etc.

7. Commercial risks arise in the field of purchase and sale.

Investment activity requires development of a real model of the market situation for given type

of product, movements of prices for raw materials and material resources for the production of

this type of product, an accurate forecast of science and technology, analysis of the state of

affairs in the construction industry. All this causes a significant amount of investment risks. In

this regard, there are four risk zones, and a formula is derived that determines the degree of

entrepreneurial risk.

Any activity of a construction company is associated with business risk. Risks can and should be

managed, since the realized risks turn into crises of a construction company. Risk assessment

should be carried out at the place of their occurrence: from the manufacturer, seller, and investor.

It is thus necessary to identify and predict risks, choose the forms of risk insurance, determine

the risk profiles of the company. This will contribute to increase profits and the cost of capital of

entrepreneurial companies.

In conclusion, it should be noted that a thorough study of risk prediction methods, selection of

optimal forms of insurance and self-insurance of risky operations and actions, the definition by

each company of its risk profile, and effective mechanisms for managing production,

commercial, personnel and other risks are necessary.


117

Modeling of the Earth's crust of the Greater Caucasus by seismic tomography

Yetirmishli Gurban J., Kazimova Sabina E. Republican Seismological Survey Center of National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, N.Rafibeily 9,

1001, Baku, Azerbaijan

One of the best regions, if not the best place, on the planet to study early stages mountain

building is the Greater Caucasus where most of the volcanism and uplift appears to be on the

order of 5 Ma. The collisional belt between the Eurasian and Arabian plates forms a very young,

diffuse plate boundary and has important similarities and differences with the India- Eurasia

collision zone. The Greater Caucasus mountain belt contains the highest topography of the

Eurasia-Arabia plate boundary. The Greater Caucasus, the Lesser Caucasus, a broad plateau to

the south, and the Eastern Anatolian plateau to the southwest comprise the diffuse and

tectonically active plate boundary between Arabia and Eurasian plate.

The resulting data set will be used to create robust seismic images that will allow us to determine

the mechanism of uplift for the Greater Caucasus and to better understand the origin of large

earthquakes in the region. Until recently, there were very few digital broadband seismic data

available from the Greater Caucasus and therefore current velocity models are largely based on

travel time data from analog stations in the region. The stations in the region have primarily

intermediate-band and short-period seismometers; thus, a broadband experiment would greatly

increase the imaging tools available to scientists studying the region.


118

Risk Estimation of High River Flows for Future Climate

Leszek Kuchar Department of Applied Mathematics, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Science (Poland)

In this paper the methodology of risk estimation of high river flows for future climate is

presented. The method is illustrated by the example of a river catchment and selected climate

change scenarios.

A simulation of maximum daily flows for the Kaczawa River in south-west Poland and the year

2080 are presented. The flow simulation in the river catchment was made using MIKE SHE

hydrological model and long series of generated data for 24 sites of meteorological stations.

Generated data as solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and total rainfall

were set up using spatial weather generator SWGEN producing the multisite daily time series

based on 35 years of observed data gathered from the Institute of Meteorology and Water

Management National Research Institute (IMGW). Data were generated for the present (the year

2000 are used as a background) as well for future climate condition for 2080 according

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The large number of new simulated

series determined by the lead time, three climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and

RCP8.5), and number of generated years (1000 for each case) is equal to 5000 for a single

station. Finally, Lognormal pdf function for the maximum flows are presented as well

probability of exceedance of maximum values.

The simulated maximum annual and seasonal, flows predicted for 2080 according to the

averaged scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 are consistent with the maximum annual (seasonal)

flows obtained for the SRES A1B scenarios (GISS Model E, HadCM3 and GFDL R15) in earlier

studies. A 10-20 percent increase in the maximum and minimum annual daily flows in the case

of significant water deficits in Poland is not a hydrological risk to the catchment of the Kaczawa

River.

The long series of simulated years and the large number of stations used in calculations based on

35 years of observation allow us to believe that the simulations in flow changes in Kaczawa

basin are reliable. The use of the hydrological rainfall-runoff model MIKE SHE together with

the spatial weather generator SWGEN enables effective assessment of changes in flows in river

basins with a long time horizon.

References.

IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to

the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. 2014, Geneva, Switzerland, pp.151,

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment- report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf.

Iwanski S. Kuchar L. Spatial generation of daily meteorological data (in Polish). Acta

Scientiarum Polonorum - Formatio Circumiectus, 2003, 2, 1, p.113–121.

Kuchar L. Iwanski S. Jelonek L. Szalinska W. A modeling framework to assess the impact of

climate change in river runoff. Meteorol. Hydrol. Water Manag., 2, 2, p.49–63.

MIKE 11. A modelling system for Rivers and Channels, User Guide, DHI Water and

Environment, 2003.

Walpole R.E. Myers R.H. Myers S.L. Ye K. Probability and statistics for engineers and

scientists. Prentice Hall, 7th Ed., 2002, NJ.

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-%20report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf


119

Minimization of fire risks in ventilated facade systems of buildings

Samira Akbarova Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Baku, A.Sultanova -11

Nowadays, ventilated facade systems (VFS) are becoming increasingly popular both in the

construction of new and reconstruction of old buildings. One of the main requirements for such

systems is their fire safety, which is mainly determined: by the properties of building structures

materials and their flammability, fire resistance; by the corresponding engineering- construction

solutions in accordance with the requirements of building codes. For VFSs solutions of fire

safety are the installation of the fire-prevention vertical and horizontal cut- offs, fire breaker,

installation of windows, doors within special fire-prevention boxes. The increased fire safety

requirement for VFSs is due to the fact that according to their design: between the thermal

insulation and the external facing of the facade there is air cavity where air ventilation

continuously occurs. The ventilated air cavity contributes to the rapid spread of the flame. In

order to minimize fire risks, in addition to the use of non-combustible building materials, the

engineering measures should be implemented on the basis of a unified methodology for

calculating VFSs. Despite the large amount of research on this topic, there are still no works

containing an objective assessment of the impact of cut-offs on the movement of cavity airflow.

There is also great potential for developing of the constructive proposals for the improvement of

the cut-off design in order to minimize negative impact on cavity air velocities and others

parameters.

The fire-prevention cut-off is a metal plate made of thin-sheet steel with a thickness more than

0.6 mm, and a length is about 6 m. When designing fire-prevention horizontal cut-offs, fire

breakers, it is necessary to take into consideration that these elements cannot completely block

the air movement in the air cavity of VFS. They should not adversely affect the airflow

parameters and the moisture content of the wall structures. Therefore, fire-prevention horizontal

cut-offs must be made perforated. The percentage of perforation must provide the necessary air

exchange in order to meet the requirements for the humid state of the system structures, on the

other hand, the cut-offs must meet fire safety requirements.

The article examines the impact of the cut-offs on characteristics of air cavity. This article

focuses on the methodology for engineering calculation of the optimal distance between the fire-

prevention horizontal cut-offs and fire breaker along the facade height depending on the average

local wind speed in the area of the building location. For that the air velocities are measured in

the air cavity of the facade. The reference building is operating. The required number of cut-off

points and their parameters is calculated for each specific building in accordance with

Construction codes SNIP 21-01-97 “Fire safety of buildings and structures”. Analysis of the

obtained results makes to conclude that with wind speed more than 7 m/s and façade heights of

more than 15 m, the façade should be divided into zones by height with perforated fire-

prevention horizontal cut-offs or fire breakers. They should be located along the entire perimeter

of the building. At the same time the cavity air velocity should be maintained at about 0.5-1 m/s.

It is shown that the cut-offs adversely affect the cavity air velocity and reduce the velocity factor

by five or seven times, depending on the façade configuration. The results of research and

engineering calculations can be used to further improve the regulatory framework, for the design,

installation and long-term operation of VFSs, for the calculation and experimental control during

the multi-disciplinary energy auditing of the building.


120

Experimental research of dynamic parameters of multi-storey buildings at vibrating

seismic loadings

Shakir Mamedov1, Tukezban Hasanova2, Tural Mammedli3 1Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Department Exploitation and Reconstruction of

Buildings and Constructions, Azerbaijan

2Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Department Exploitation and Reconstruction of

Buildings and Constructions, Azerbaijan

3Azerbaijan University of Architecture and Construction, Azerbaijan

Currently, all buildings erected in seismic areas must be resistant to seismic impacts.

The purpose of these experimental studies is to determine the oscillation parameters of the object

of observation, in this case, the layout of a four-story building and a sixteen-story frame building

constructed in Baku with a rigidity diaphragm under natural vibration seismic effects.

To obtain data on perturbing forces, that is, the seismic effect of vibrations, the mutual influence

between the foundation and the base, as well as forced and natural vibrations of a 16-storey

building, a clearer idea of the form and amount of displacement, seismometers are installed at the

bottom of the foundation on the first, fourth, eighth, twelfth and sixteenth floors. Changing the

direction of the location of vibration measuring devices, oscillograms of the transverse and

longitudinal free oscillations of the building were obtained.

Dynamic tests were conducted to determine the dynamic and stiffness characteristics, the carrying

capacity of the structural elements of the building, to identify hidden defects.


121

Landslide monitoring and early warning multifunctional system

Tamaz Chelidze1, Nodar Varamashvili1, Zurab Chelidze1, Tengiz Kiria1, Nugzar Ghlonti1,

Jemal Kiria1 1M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

The ultimate goal of the work is to develop low-cost precision geophysical monitoring complex

telemetry system with autonomous power supply (solar batteries), which use radio signal or

Internet connection for signalling activation and initiation of mudflow/landslide. In recent years,

the satisfaction of accuracy and cost efficiency demands can be achieved with the help of new

technologies (e.g. MEMS sensors, different sensors of soil moisture and tilts/accelerations with

modern digital processing and transfer elements).

A system was developed to monitor, generate and transfer an alarm signal of landslide

activation. Based on the integrated processing and analysis of several physical parameters

observed in the hazardous area, it estimates (in the real-time) the level of activity in the area of

hazardous situation. The sensors used in the system are waterproof boxes, containing three-

component analog mini-modules accelerometer-tiltmeter: MMA7361, a mini-module of the

radio-frequency soil moisture sensor (2.7 GHz Radar sensor) and a mini-module of the linear

semiconductor temperature meter (LM35).

At the final stage we tested our early warning system on the real landslide. For testing object was

selected unstable urban area (Gldani landslide) in Tbilisi, which poses a serious hazard to

residential buildings. The system has been installed for several months ago at landslide and

provides information transmission in continuous mode.

The system we have created, can, in principle, be used to monitor and produce early warning of

mudflows, floods, avalanches, etc., as well as to monitor response of large constructions and

residential buildings to mechanical vibrations (earthquakes, wind).


122

Geo-environmental aspects of safe urban planning

Buldakova Ekaterina1, Zaikanov Vyacheslav1, Minakova Tatiana1 1Sergeev Institute of environmental geosciences RAS, Ulansky pereulok 13, building 2, P.O.Box 145,

101000, Moscow, Russia

In connection with increasing urbanization, especially in recent decades, it is important to ensure

the environmental safety of urban areas, including geo-environmental safety. In recent years,

there has been a trend of redevelopment of urban areas with accumulated negative geological

and environmental factors. In addition, often under the new construction is given inconvenient

areas for the development where technical facilities are in areas of hazardous geological

processes. The development of areas with complex engineering-geological conditions within

urban areas is an urgent task of urban planning. Unsuitable by natural conditions sites are on

average 10-15%, and in some cities reach 35-40%. A large proportion of them are urban ravines

and gullies.

To minimize the risks of dangerous natural and natural-anthropogenic processes and phenomena

it is necessary to make a balance between social, economic and environmental interests in policy

and decision-making on urban planning is required. The interaction of geologists and urban

planners, architects, and other experts in the field of decision-making require the creation of a

unified information field for the different participants in the planning process, taking into

account that many of them have a limited understanding of the issues of geo-environmental

safety.

Geo-environmental safety of urban areas is an integral part of environmental safety. Among the

selected groups of environmental hazards to the number of geo-environmental are included:

dangerous geological and hydrological processes, contaminated soils as a result of anthropogenic

impact. In total, we have identified 12 groups of environmental hazards, including geo-

environmental in urban areas of natural and man-made classes. For each group, examples of

environmental safety indicators are given that are important for monitoring and evaluating the

safe development of cities.

To solve the strategic task of increasing the requirements for the safety of the urban

environment, it is necessary to improve the collection and analysis of data on the assessment of

geo-environmental safety of the territory of cities on the basis of a system of interrelated,

relevant and measurable indicators that take into account aspects of human interaction with

nature. In order to eliminate the current lack of territorial tools for planning compliance with

restrictions in areas of potential risk of geo- environmental hazards, it is necessary to develop a

comprehensive index of geo-environmental safety. This will make it possible to increase the

efficiency of management decisions and reduce the cost of eliminating the consequences of

dangerous geo-environmental processes and phenomena in the development of urban space.

Indicators of geo- environmental safety of the urban area are the indicators that characterize the

existing and expected geo-ecological risk at specified time intervals. They can be quantified

using statistical and monitoring data.

Geo-environmental safety index is a quantitative characteristic of one or more indicators. It can

be used as a universal tool to provide the various actors involved in the planning and

management of the urban environment with relevant and comparable information to coordinate

actions to ensure the environmental safety of cities.


123

On reducing the safety risks of water facilities

Sabina Magerramova Department of Land Reclamation and Hydroeconomic Construction


In a general sense, the concept of risk to the safety of water facilities is interpreted as a threat to

the security and sustainability of their vital functional interests. In the scientific and technical

literature, the concept of “safety of a water management facility” is interpreted as a specific

relationship between an object and the conditions of its existence. An analysis of these general

definitions shows that they describe various aspects of security risk depending on the direction of

their application. In developed countries, there is a legal framework and relevant regulatory and

standard requirements for the assessment, analysis and management of the safety risk of

buildings of hydraulic structures, water management and melioration facilities, etc. Today in

Azerbaijan there are no relevant laws, regulatory and standard requirements. Therefore, in

practice, similar documents of the Soviet era are used, still in force.

With regard to objects of land reclamation, or rather hydroamelioration, there is the problem of

differentiating the concept of “safety”, which involves two components, which can be called

“static safety” and “dynamic safety”.

For “Azerbaijan Amelioration and Water Management” JSC, the concept of “safety” describes

only the static state of hydraulic structures. At the same time, groups of indicators, in one form

or another, characterizing the technical condition of structures (reinforced concrete, concrete,

soil, etc.), metal structures of hydraulic equipment are considered. Additionally, hydraulic,

filtration and a number of related indicators are evaluated, which, in essence, characterize only

the efficiency of the facility (hydraulic structure combined with the environment).

New approaches to assessing the safety of production facilities include a variety of it, referred to

as either “functional safety” or “process safety”. At the same time, technological safety is

assessed by a set of indicators characterizing the state of protection of an object from internal

and external threats.

For reclamation facilities, the concepts of “technological safety” with the aforementioned

concept of “dynamic safety” are in many respects adequate.

The peculiarities of interaction and interaction of buildings and equipment of land-reclamation

purposes allows using the concept of "land-reclamation technology", which more fully takes into

account the totality of types of work, methods and sequence of their implementation, a number

of other related factors characterizing the production activities of economic entities of

Azerbaijan's land-reclamation complex, including features of the cultivation of crops on irrigated

land.

Analysis of the design features of land-reclamation systems and structures, applied technologies

and technological processes during the operation of land-reclamation facilities, allows making

some generalizations about the composition of indicators and mechanisms for assessing

technological safety of reclamation facilities: to improve the quality and accuracy of

technological security assessments, it is advisable to classify reclamation facilities by their

functions.


124

Modeling of emergency situations at water facilities

Sabina Magerramova Department of Land Reclamation and Hydroeconomic Construction, Azerbaijan University of

Architecture and Construction

Currently, the average age of existing water facilities is over half a century. Due to the long

term of work, many channels of ameliorative designation require reconstruction, repair and

modernization. The low technical condition is mainly due to the violation of the system of

maintenance and repair of facilities, which resulted in a high probability of emergency

situations (flooding and water-logging of the territory, breakthrough of the canal sides, etc.).

Possible emergency situations on the channels can be attributed to three groups:

− accidents caused by the influence of hydraulic factors of a moving stream of water;

− accidents caused by filtration processes;

− accidents caused by landslides.

The analysis shows that accidents can be caused by the following reasons:

− operation of channels with violation of technological regimes (high rate of decrease or

rise of the water level, unsteady flow patterns with the formation of release waves, etc.);

− flow rates leading to sedimentation of the channel with sediments or to its erosion;

− violation of the static stability of the soil slopes of the channels;

− Significant filtering through channel dams (appearance of free filtering moves);

− an increase in the roughness coefficient of the channel leading to a decrease in the

channel capacity (overgrowing of the channel with aquatic vegetation);

− deformation of the channels of the channels during operation (erosion of the slopes and

bottom);

− erosion of the sides of the canals with current and the action of wind waves;

− untimely maintenance of the earthen channels of the canals (cleaning of sediments,

mowing of vegetation, bedding of berms and slopes);

− late repair of hydraulic structures;

− damage to the dam's body (suffusion, erosion of slopes, etc.);

− overflow through the dam crest in case of accidents on hydraulic structures.

Based on an analysis of the causes of accidents, two main scenarios can be identified - overflow

of water through the crest of the canal dam with the formation of a blockhole and the

occurrence of filtration deformations in the body of the dam. Consider the modeling of each of

these scenarios.

Modeling emergency situations at water facilities is a complex multifactor task. The course of

the accident is affected by the initial violations that caused it, the design features of the dams,

the geological conditions of the area, meteorological factors, the topography of the area.

At present, it is necessary to develop and substantiate mathematical models for the calculation of

burrs and filtration deformations for large channels, which would take into account all the

features of the operation mode of these structures.


125

Content

Содержание

Supporters

Партнеры

3

Organizing Committee

Организационный комитет

4

Scientific Comittee

Научный комитет

6

Chairman’s Message

Обращение председателя

9

Program

Программа

13

Technological safety

Технологическая безопасность

Vladimir Gurevich

Protection of Electric Equipment against High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse.

Владимир Гуревич

Защита электрооборудования от высотных электромагнитных импульсов.

27

Michail Lukyanchikov, Valery Lesnykh, Alexandr Bochkov


GAZPROM facilities

Михаил Лукъянчиков, Валерий Лесных, Александр Бочков

Опыт применения риск-ориентированного подхода при осуществлении

корпоративного контроля объектов ПАО ГАЗПРОМ.

28

Motoki Kazama

Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan - learned from two Great

Earthquake Disasters for recent 30 years

Мотоки Казама

Снижение риска стихийных бедствий в Японии – уроки двух больших

землятрасений за последние 30 лет.

29

Sahiba Kalaeva, Vladimir Makarov, Nadejda Markelova, Ramil Kalaev

Obtaining synthetic magnetite and ferromagnetic fluid from industrial waste to

purify water from petroleum products.

Сахиба Калаева, Владимир Макаров, Надежда Маркелова, Рамиль Калаев

Получение синтетического магнетита и магнитной жидкости из отходов

производства для очистки воды от нефтепродуктов.

30

Vinera Bekbaeva, Galina Metaksa


Винера Бекбаева, Галина Метакса

Инновации в минимизации природных и технологических рисков в

нефтяной промышленности.

31

Ulyana Ivanova,Vladimir Moskvichev

The cause-and-effect regularities of anthropogenic accidents.

Ульяна Иванова, Владимир Москвичов

Причинно-следственные закономерности техногенных катастроф.

32


126

Vladimir Nadein, Rüshdi Safarov, Oleg Zerkal, Natik Seidakhmedov, Igor

Fomenko

Assessment and analysis of risks in the reorientation of old industrial areas for

urban planning and recreational purposes (on example of Baku).

Владимир Надеин, Рушди Сафаров, Олег Зеркал, Натик Сеидахмедов,

Игорь Фоменко

Оценка и анализ рисков при переориентации старых промышленных зон на

градостроительные и рекреационные цели (на примере г. Баку).

33

Oksana Hunchenko

Analysis of the main characteristics of industrial risk.

Оксана Гунченко

Анализ основных характеристик промышленного риска.

34

Yury Karin, Natalya Yurkevich, Igor Yeltsov


geochemical investigations.

Юрий Карин, Наталья Юркевич, Игорь Ельцов

Отходы шахт: модели хвостохранилищ, выведенные из геофизических и

геохимических исследований.

35

Vladimir Malyshev, Larisa Borisoglebskaia

Intellectual innovation system of technological safety for the oil and gas

industry.

Владимир Малышев, Лариса Борисоглебская

Интеллектуальная инновационная система технологической безопасности

для нефтегазовой отрасли.

36

Igor Cheshyk, Halina Hutsava, Mikalai Barysevich



Игорь Чещик, Галина Гуцева, Миколай Барышевич

Информационно-психологическая защита населения при ядерных авариях.

Опыт Республики Беларусь.

37

Fakhraddin Gabibov

Development of innovative technologies to minimize the risks during the

construction and operation of structure on unstable soils.

Фахраддин Габибов

Разработка инновационных технологий для минимизации рисков при

строительстве и эксплуатации конструкций на неустойчивых почвах.

38

Palma Orlović-Leko, Irena Ciglenečki-Jusić, Nevenka Mikac, Ivo Galić, Alojzije

Filipović

Environmental risk associated with water in the abandoned mines.

Палма Орлович-Леко, Ирена Чиглинески-Жусич, Невенка Микас, Иво

Галич, Аложзие Филипович

Экологический риск, связанный с водой в заброшенных шахтах.

39

Ivo Galić, Branimir Farkaš, Ivan Soldo

Risk assessment and possible solutions for certain abandoned mines in the

Dinarides area.

Иво Галич, Бранимир Фаркаш, Иван Солдо

Оценка риска и возможные решения для некоторых заброшенных шахт в

районе Динаридес.

40


127

Youngcheul Kwon, Yudai Kawamura, Hajime Imanishi

Assessment of post-earthquake ground settlement of clayey soils based on

consolidation settlement potential.

Джонг Чеул Квон, Юдаи Кавамура, Хаиме Иманиши

Оценка состояния грунтовых поселений после землетрясения на глинистых

почвах с учетом консолидационного расчетного потенциала.

41

Gennadiy Shmal', Vladimir Nadein, Nikolai Makhutov

Development of safety principles and criteria on offshore hydrocarbon facilities

and infrastructures.

Геннадий Шмаль, Владимир Надеин, Николай Махутов

Разработка принципов и критериев безопасности на морских

углеводородных объектах и инфраструктурах.

42

Nikolai Makhutov, Aleksandr Rybas, Vladimir Nadein

Scientific support of the basis of state policy in the field of industrial safety.

Николай Махутов, Александр Рыбась, Владимир Надеин

Научное сопровождение основ государственной политики в области

промышленной безопасности.

43

Eugeny Gumennikov, Nikolai Buktukov, Gulzada Mashataeva

Exclusion of the risks of injury in the release of the mountain mass from

cleaning blocks and bunkers.

Евгений Гуменников, Николай Буктуков, Гульзада Машатаева

Исключение рисков травматизма при выпуске горной массы из очистных

блоков и бункеров.

44

Anna Gumenyuk, Inna Nikonorova, Marina Vishnevskaya


Kuibyshev reservoirs.

Анна Гуменьюк, Инна Никонорова, Марина Вишневская

Устойчивость и риск в рекреационном развитии побережья Чебоксарского

и Куйбышевского водохранилищ.

45

Yana Krukhmaleva


GAZPROM International investment projects. The latest software for risk

analysis of the Russian manufacturers. Information security of PJSC

GAZPROM.

Яна Крухмалева

Автоматизация системы управления проектами и рисками на примере

международных инвестиционных проектов ГАЗПРОМ. Новейшее

программное обеспечение для анализа рисков Российского производителя.

Информационная безопасность ПАО ГАЗПРОМ.

46

Andrew Botviniev

Russian transport network-bridge between Europe and Asia.

Андрей Ботвиньев

Российская транспортная сеть-мост между Европой и Азией.

47

Nikolay Zapivalov

Risks and uncertainties in the Petroleum Sector.

Nikolai Zapivalov

Риски и неопределенности в нефтяном секторе.

48


128

Igor Hadjamberdiev, Rustam Tukhvatshin, Ibragimjon Domulajanov

Central Asia old tailings: mutual risk factors.

Игорь Хаджамбердыев, Рустам Тукватшин, Ибрагимджон Домулажанов

Старые отходы Центральной Азии: факторы взаимного риска.

49

Eugeny Telenkov

The experience of Norilsk Nickel: Model of management of technical and

production risks.

Евгений Теленков

Опыт Норильского никеля: Модель управления технико-

производственными рисками.

50

Vugar Aliyev

Deformation of riverbed of Kura river as a factor of emergency situation in oil-

and gas-transport systems.


Деформация русла реки Куры как фактор чрезвычайной ситуации в

нефтегазотранспортных системах.

51

Ayten Akhmedova, Islam Mustafaev

The formation of specific effective activity of natural radionuclides in building

materials and products.

Айтен Ахмедова, Ислам Мустафаев

Формирование удельной эффективной активности природных

радионуклидов в строительных материалах и изделиях.

52

Natural emergency situations

Природные чрезвычайные ситуации Daya Shanker

Earthquake risk evaluation in Western Himalaya, India - a scenario report.

Дая Шанкер

Оценка риска землетрясения в Западных Гималаях, Индия – отчет

сценарий.

53

Sharpuddin Zaurbekov, Luiza Bekmurzaeva, T Ozdieva

The use of GIS technologies in assessing the exposure of the territory of the

Chechen Republic to dangerous natural processes and phenomena

Шарпуддин Заурбеков, Луиза Бекмурзаева, Оздиева Т.Х Применение ГИС-

технологий при оценке подверженности территории Чеченской Республики

опасным природным процессам и явлениям.

54

Nigora Fayzibaeva

Water resources of Uzbekistan: problems and solutions

Нигора Фейзибаева

Водные ресурсы Узбекистана: проблемы и пути решения.

55

Akhmetkal Medeu, Viktor Blagoveshenskiy, Maulken Askarova, Tamara

Gulyayeva, Alikhan Medeu, Sandugash Ranova


Ахметкал Медеу, Виктор Благовещенский, Маулкен Аскарова, Тамара

Гуляева, Алихан Медеу, Сандугаш Ранова

Опыт управления селевым риском в Казахстане.

56


129

Aliakbar Rasouli, Kevin Cheung and Hanieh Mobasher

Highlighting Widespread Severe Thunderstorms Events

Applying a GIS-Oriented Approach Inside the Greater Sydney Metropolitan

Area

Алиакбар Расули, Кэвин Чэнг, Хание Мобашер

Выделение широко грозовых событий с применением ГИС-

ориентированного подхода в районе Большого Сиднея.

57

Gurban Yetirmishli, Sabina Kazimova



Сейсмичность Азербайджана за период 2012-2019 гг.

58

Adil Aliyev

Mud volcanoes of Azerbaijan: ecological problems and

environmental risk assessment.

Адиль Алиев

Грязевые вулканы Азербайджана: экологические проблемы и

оценка экологических рисков.

59

Jafar Niyazov, Ali Fazilov, Mirzo Saidov

The GIS and remote sensing in the monitoring of debris flow effects in

Tajikistan.

Джафар Ниязов, Али Фазилов, Мирзо Саидов

ГИС и дистанционное зондирование в мониторинге воздействия селевого

потока в Таджикистане.

60

Larisa Agaeva, Emil Esenov

Issues of assessment and zoning of seismic danger in Turkmenistan.

Лариса Агаева, Эмиль Эсенов

Вопросы оценки и районирования сейсмической опасности в

Туркменистане.

61

Avaz Salamov, Vagif Mammadov, Hadiya Khalilova

Formation of sliding processes in the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan and

their threats (case study: the Absheron Peninsula).

Аваз Саламов, Вагиф Мамедов, Хадийя Халилова

Формирование процессов скольжения на территории Азербайджанской

Республики и их угрозы (на примере Апшеронского полуострова).

62

Mikhail Faleev, Nikolai Makhutov, Evgeny Kozlov

Understanding the risks of disaster reduction.

Михаил Фалеев, Николай Махутов, Евгений Козлов

Проблемы понимания рисков снижения стихийных бедствий.

63

Evgeniy Sherzhukov, Dmitriy Morozov

Experience of creating a monitoring system of dangerous hydrological

phenomena in the territory of Krasnodar region.

Евгений Шержуков, Дмитрий Морозов

Опыт создания системы мониторинга опасных гидрологических явлений на

территории Краснодарской области.

64

Merab Gongadze, George Lominadze, George Khomeriki

Natural disaster exodynamic processes and events in Georgia.

Мераб Гонгадзе, Георгий Ломинадзе, Георгий Хомерики

Стихийнные экзодинамические процессы и явления в Грузии.

65


130

Olga Taseiko, Daria Chernykh

The relative risks for population health in Krasnoyarsk city caused by cold

weather.

Ольга Тасейко, Дарья Черных

Относительные риски для здоровья населения в городе Красноярске,

вызванные холодной погодой.

66

Tatiana Kuderina

Atmospheric geochemical risks in strengthening the processes of natural

desertification and anthropogenic land degradation in southern Russia.

Татьяна Кудерина

Атмосферные геохимические риски при усилении процессов природного

опустынивания и антропогенной деградации земель юга России.

67

Kamchibek Kojogulov, Aichurok Toktogulova, Gulnara Kabaeva, Tabaldy

Jumaev

About one method of protection from mudflows.

Камчибек Кожогулов, Айчурок Токтогулова, Гулнара Кабаева, Табалды

Жумаев

Об одном способе защиты от селевых потоков.

68

Kamchibek Kojogulov, Aichurok Toktogulova, Gulnara Kabaeva, Tabaldy

Jumaev

The way to eliminate ice jams on the rivers of Kyrgyzstan.

Камчибек Кожогулов, Айчурок Токтогулова, Гулнара Кабаева, Табалды

Жумаев

Способ ликвидации заторов льда на реках Кыргызстана.

69

Emil Bournaski, Ivan Ivanov, Galia Bardarska, Svilen Borisov, Olga Nicheva,

Aleksey Benderev, Tatiana Orehova, Vladimir Hristov, Petar Gerginov, Neli

Hristova, Polia Dobreva, Ivan Penkov

Scientific program of Republic of Bulgaria for environmental protection and

reducing the risk of negative phenomena and natural disasters.

Эмиль Боурнаский, Иван Иванов, Галия Бардарска, Свилен Борисов, Ольга

Ничева, Алексей Бендерев, Татьяна Орехова, Владимир Христов, Петар

Гергинов, Нелли Христова, Полья Добрева, Иван Пенков

Научная программа Республики Болгария по охране окружающей среды и

снижению риска негативных явлений и стихийных бедствий.

70

Rza Mahmudov, Vugar Aliyev

Global climate change and its impact on hydrometeorological condition in

Azerbaijan.

Рза Махмудов, Вугар Алиев

Глобальное изменение климата и его влияние на гидрометеорологическое

состояние в Азербайджане.

71

Emil Bayramov, Ramiz Mammadov, Rafael Bayramov, Saida Aliyeva

Quantitative prediction and mitigation of landslides and erosion risks using GIS

and remote sensing.

Эмиль Байрамов, Рамиз Мамедов, Рафаэль Байрамов, Саида Алиева

Количественное прогнозирование и снижение риска оползней и эрозии с

использованием ГИС и дистанционного зондирования.

72

Ramiz Mammadov. Natural hazards in the mountain regions of the Azerbaijan

Republic and these CIS mapping.

73


131

Рамиз Мамедов

Стихийные бедствия в горных районах Азербайджанской Республики и их

ГИС картографировании.

Eberhard Gröner, Armin Roduner

Slope stabilization and erosion protection in a single operation.

Эберхард Грёнер, Армин Родунер

Стабилизация склона и защита от эрозии за одну операцию.

74

Corinna Wendeler, Eberhard Gröner, Alexander Barinov, Matthias Denk

Ten years’ experience in flexible debris flow barriers.

Каринна Вэндэлер, Эберхард Грёнер, Александр Баринов, Маттиас Денк

Десять лет опыта в области гибких барьеров для селевого потока.

75

Complex safety

Комплексная безопасность Arkady Granovskiy, Bulat Dzgamuev, Oleg Simakov, Daria Lvova

The use carbon fiber and carbon mesh to increase the seismic resistance of

masonry buildings.

Аркадий Грановский, Булат Дзгамуев, Олег Симаков, Дарья Львова

Использование углеродного волокна и углеродной сети для повышения

сейсмического сопротивления каменных зданий.

76

Irina Malneva


geological processes.

Ирина Мальнева

Оперативные прогнозы для минимизации природных и техногенных

рисков опасных геологических процессов.

77

Anatolii Pavlenko


Анатолий Павленко

Как нейтрализовать биопатогенное и технопатогенное излучение на

человека.

78

Nigora Talipova

Issues of food security while minimizing natural risks.

Нигора Талипова

Вопросы обеспечения продовольственной безопасности в условиях

минимизации природных рисков.

79

Irina Glinyanova

Holistic Approach to Phytomonitoring in the System of Ecological Safety of

Urban Areas.

Инна Глинянова

Целостный подход к фитомониторингу в системе экологической

безопасности городских территорий.

80

Nadira Mavlyanova


technological risk.

Надира Мавлянова

Развитие сотрудничества стран СНГ по снижению природных и

техногенных рисков.

81


132

Vladimir Moskvichev

Comprehensive assessment of the natural and man-made safety of Siberian

regions.

Владимир Москвичов

Комплексная оценка природной и техногенной безопасности регионов

Сибири.

82

Bahman Amiri


landscape planning one.

Бахман Амири

Забота о форме изменений в нашем ландшафте: от гидрологического

контекста до ландшафтного планирования.

83

Fakhraddin Gabibov, Arzu Zeynalov

Choice of innovative risk management measures at industrial facilities within

complex topography with landslide hazard.

Фахраддин Габибов, Арзу Зейналов

Выбор инновационных мер по управлению рисками на промышленных

объектах в сложной топографии с опасностью оползня.

84

Fakhraddin Gabibov, Aydin Huseynov

The main economic and administrative barriers affecting a high level of risks in

the commercialization of innovations.

Фахраддин Габибов, Айдын Гусейнов

Основные экономические и административные барьеры, влияющие на

высокий уровень рисков при коммерциализации инноваций.

85

Valdemaras Makutėnas

Assessing the impact of environmental tax revenue on environmental pollution

in European countries.

Вальдемарас Макутенас

Оценка воздействия налога на загрязнение окружающей среды в

Европейских странах.

86

Daiva Makutėnienė

Factors affecting crop insurance: The case of Lithuania

Дайва Макутениене

Факторы, влияющие на страхование урожая: случай Литвы.

87

Irina Rudaya, Boris Anikin

Risks and opportunities of the cross-border e-Commerce development in the

context of the new customs legislation of the Eurasian Customs Union and the

Russian Federation.

Ирина Рудая, Борис Аникин

Риски и возможности развития трансграничной электронной торговли в

контексте нового таможенного законодательства Евразийского

таможенного союза и Российской Федерации.

88

Anna Fedotova, Lyudmila Yakovleva, Elena Loktionova

The environmental component of the integrated security of the Caspian macro-

region.

Анна Федотова, Людмила Яковлева, Елена Локтионова

Экологическая составляющая комплексной безопасности Каспийского

макрорегиона.

89


133

Vadim Plyushchikov, Vladimir Avdotin, Vladislav Plyushchikov, Mirashraf

Fatiev

The influence of the combined effect of negative factors: heavy metals,

pesticides, radionuclides, etc. - in the soils of urban agglomerations to ensure

their key functions and ecosystem services.

Вадим Плющиков, Владимир Авдотьин, Владислав Плющиков, Мирашраф

Фатиев

Влияние комбинированного воздействия негативных факторов: тяжелых

металлов, пестицидов, радионуклидов и т. д. - на почвы городских

агломераций для обеспечения их основных функций и экосистемных услуг.

90

Irena Ciglenečki, Milan Čanković, Jelena Dautović, Marija Marguš, Ivica

Janeković

Changes in the environment: Importance of long-term monitoring.

Ирена Чиглинески, Милан Чанкович, Елена Даутович, Мария Маргус,

Ивица Джанекович

Изменения в окружающей среде: важность долгосрочного мониторинга.

91

Yuliia Kvach

Risk management at the piloting stage.

Юлия Квач

Управление рисками на этапе пилотирования.

92

Vladimir Avdotin, Aleksandr Kononov, Vadim Plyushchikov, Julia Avdotina,

Vladislav Plyushchikov

On the causes and consequences of cognitive distortions in assessing the

significance and role of civilization factors in risk and safety management.

Владимир Авдотьин, Александр Кононов, Вадим Плющиков, Юлия

Авдотьина, Владислав Плющиков

О причинах и последствиях когнитивных нарушений в оценке значимости

и роли цивилизационных факторов в управлении рисками и безопасностью.

93

Givi Gavardashvili

Disasters resilience of infrastructure to natural and human-caused hazards.

Гиви Гавардашвили

Устойчивость инфраструктуры к стихийным бедствиям и антропогенным

воздействиям.

94

Vesna Tunguz, Ljiljana Nesic, Otilija Miseckaite

Zalomka-underground stream and Eastern Hercegovina soils.

Весна Тунгуз, Льйиляна Неич, Отилижа Мисекаите

Заломка - подземный ручей и почвы Восточной Герцеговины.

95

Vladimir Belozerov, Vyacheslav Vorotilov, Pavel Obukhov

Adaptation of the method of rapid analysis of liquid packaged products for

recognition of counterfeit alcohol.

Владимир Белозеров, Вячеслав Воротилов, Павел Обухов

Адаптация метода экспресс-анализа жидких упакованных продуктов для

распознавания контрафактного алкоголя.

96

Lia Matchavariani, Giorgi Metreveli, Zaza Gulashvili

Integrate management of water reservoirs problems.

Лия Мачавариани, Георгий Метревели, Заза Гулашвили

Комплексное управление проблемами водохранилищ.

97


134

Ramiz Mammadov, Khosiyat Ismatova, Natavan Jafarova

Experience of using space technologies to minimize the risk of natural and man-

made disasters in Azerbaijan.

Рамиз Мамедов, Хосият Исматова, Натаван Джафарова

Опыт применения космических технологий для минимизации риска

природных и техногенных катастроф в Азербайджане.

98

Seymur Mammadov, Emil Gafarov

About the condition of physical stability of the Mingechevir dam.

Сеймур Мамедов, Эмиль Гафаров

О состоянии физической устойчивости Мингечевирской плотины.

99

Vugar Aliyev


interactions.


Водоснабжение и глобальная критическая инфраструктура Азербайджана:

взаимозависимости и взаимодействия.

100

Aliona Tihon. The global problem of natural and man-made disasters.

Алёна Тихон.Глобальная проблема природных и техногенных катастроф.

101

Ahmed Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, Denys Dutykh

Nonlinear deformation and run-up of tsunami waves of positive polarity:

numerical simulations and analytical predictions.

102

Modeling of Processes, Assessment and Minimization of Risks

Моделирование процессов, оценка и минимизация рисков Valery Lesnykh, Tatiana Timofeeva

Classification and modeling of intersystem accidents for infrastructure-complex

areas.

Валерий Лесных, Татьяна Тимофеева

Классификация и моделирование межсистемных аварий для

инфраструктурно-сложных территорий.

103

Elena Patrusheva, Elena Lifanova

Innovation projects risks monitoring when achieving company’s strategic

targets.

Елена Патрушева, Елена Лифанова

Мониторинг рисков инновационных проектов при достижении

стратегических целей компании.

104

Yeraly Shokbarov

Assessment of seismic risk in Almaty.

Ералы Шокбаров

Оценка сейсмического риска в Алматы.

105

Mikhail Lebedev, Kirill Romanevich

Natural and industrial risk assessment and forecasting at the project phase of the

Second Severo-Muysky Tunnel.

Михаил Лебедев, Кирилл Романевич

Оценка и прогнозирование природных и промышленных рисков на этапе

реализации проекта второго Северо-Муйского тоннеля.

106


135

Mikhail Lebedev, Vladimir Maslak, Konstantin Bezrodny, Yury Isaev

Natural and industrial risks minimization in the course of operation of Sochi

Olympic Tunnels.

Михаил Лебедев, Владимир Маслак, Константин Безродный, Юрий Исаев

Минимизация природных и промышленных рисков при эксплуатации

Олимпийских тоннелей в Сочи.

107

Jafar Niyazov, Mirzo Saidov, Majid Gulayozov, Mustafo Safarov, Sukhbatullo

Saidov

The challenges of sustainable solution for reducing risk levels in the Sarez lake

area, Tajikistan.

Джафар Ниязов, Мирзо Саидов, Маджид Гулаязов, Мустафо Сафаров,

Сухбатулло Саидов

Проблема устойчивого решения для снижения уровней риска в районе

Сарезского озера, Таджикистан.

108

Fakhraddin Gabibov, Yerali Shokbarov, Huseyn Bayat

On the introduction of technical innovations to reduce risk in development of

territories with high seismicity.

Фахраддин Габибов, Ералы Шокбаров, Гусейн Баят

О внедрении технических инноваций для снижения рисков при освоении

территорий с повышенной сейсмичностью.

109

Tetiana Tkachenko, Olena Voloshkina

“Green structures” as a tool for reducing the environmental risks of urban

ecosystems.

Тетиана Ткаченко, Олёна Волошкина

«Зеленые структуры» как инструмент снижения экологических рисков

городских экосистем.

110

Virgilio Anselmo

A modeling process for flood-prone areas and flood-risk assessment.

Виргилио Анселмо

Процесс моделирования для подверженных наводнениям территорий и

оценка риска наводнений.

111

Olga Herasimenko, Michael Lazarenko

Evaluation of magnitudes and parameters of earthquake earth in quasireal time

scale by neural network modeling.

Ольга Герасименко, Михаил Лазаренко

Оценка магнитуд и параметров землетрясения Земли в квазиреальном

масштабе времени с помощью моделирования нейронной сети.

112

Nikolay Petrov, Inna Nikonorova, Nadezhda Prokopyeva

Compliance of the computational model with the components of the natural-

man-made system is the most important condition for risk minimizing.

Николай Петров, Инна Никонорова, Надежда Прокофьева

Соответствие вычислительной модели компонентам природно-

антропогенной системы является важнейшим условием минимизации

природных и техногенных рисков.

113

Karina Alenina, Nikolay Akatov, Dmitriy Bryukhanov

Modeling of an enterprise management competence-based capacity development

in the context of a modern risk management paradigm.

Карина Алёнина, Николай Акатов, Дмитрий Брюханов

Моделирование развития потенциала управления предприятием на основе

современной парадигмы управления рисками.

114


136

Dmitry Abrosimov, Valery Belozerov, Maxim Filimonov

Model of split systems for fire and explosion protection of apartments

of multi-storey buildings and individual houses.

Дмитрий Абросимов, Валерий Белозеров, Максим Филимонов

Модель сплит систем противопожарной и взрывобезопасности квартир

многоэтажных домов и индивидуальных домов.

115

Rumella Jafarova

Risk assessment methods for a construction company.

Румелла Джафарова

Методы оценки рисков для строительной компании.

116

Gurban Yetirmishli, Sabina Kazimova

Modeling of the Earth’s crust of the Greater Caucasus by seismic tomography.


Моделирование земной коры Большого Кавказа методом сейсмической

томографии.

117

Leszek Kuchar

Risk estimation of high river flows for future climate.

Лесзек Кучар

Оценка риска высоких речных потоков для будущего климата.

118

Samira Akbarova

Minimization of fire risks in ventilated facade systems of buildings.

Самира Акбарова

Минимизация пожароопасности в вентилируемых фасадных системах

зданий.

119

Shakir Mamedov, Tukezban Hasanova, Tural Mammedli

Experimental research of dynamic parameters of multi-storey buildings at

vibrating seismic loadings.

Шакир Мамедов, Тукезбан Гасанова, Турал Маммедли

Экспериментальное исследование динамических параметров

многоэтажных зданий при вибрационных сейсмических нагрузках.

120

Tamaz Chelidze, Nodar Varamashvili, Zurab Chelidze, Tengiz Kiria, Nugzar

Ghlonti, Jemal Kiria

Landslide monitoring and early warning multifunctional system.

Тамаз Челидзе, Нодар Варамашвили, Зураб Челидзе, Тенгиз Кириа, Нугзар

Глонти, Джемал Кириа

Многофункциональная система мониторинга оползней и раннего

предупреждения.

121

Ekaterina Buldakova, Vyacheslav Zaikanov, Tatiana Minakova

Geo-environmental aspects of safe urban planning.

Екатерина Булдакова, Вячеслав Заиканов, Татьяна Минакова

Геоэкологические аспекты планирования безопасных городов.

122

Sabina Magerramova

On reducing the safety risks of water facilities.


О снижении рисков безопасности водохозяйственных объектов.

123

Sabina Magerramova

Modeling of emergency situations at water facilities.


Моделирование аварийных ситуаций на водохозяйственных объектах.

124

ABSTRACTS OF THE FIRST EURASIAN CONFERENCE...

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