Abstract Titleforera.jrc.ec.europa.eu/fta_2011/documents/download... · Web viewCompetitiveness...

The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

COMPETITIVENESS MONITOR: AN INTEGRATED FORESIGHT PLATFORM FOR THE GERMAN LEADING-EDGE CLUSTER IN

LOGISTICS

Heiko von der Gracht*, Philipp Ecken*, Christoph Markmann*, Inga-Lena Darkow*, Gianluca De Lorenzis‡, Eckard Foltin†, David Hartmann†,

Nadine Helfenbein‡, Michael Münnich§, Christopher Stillings†

* Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management, EBS Business School, Germany ([email protected]) † Bayer MaterialScience AG, Germany

‡ dilotec GmbH, Germany § BrainNet Supply Management Consultants GmbH, Germany

Keywords: Strategic Planning, Foresight, Information Technology, Logistics, Mobility

SummaryIn June 2010 the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research launched Germany’s

biggest research initiative in the area of logistics and supply chain management. Overall 130 companies and 11 research institutes and universities participate in a cluster of more than 30 joint research projects in order to shape a sustainable future for the region, the logistics industry and beyond. In our paper we will present the current concept of the joint research project Competitiveness Monitor (CoMo), its context within the overall cluster idea, its planned architecture, and its expected contribution to the cluster, the foresight field, and its community.1 As one of the joint research projects, CoMo contributes to validity and reliability of foresight activities by digitally combining quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods. Furthermore, the CoMo aims to enhance cooperation in a multi-stakeholder environment – such as the cluster – through a fully integrated web-based platform that utilizes (cluster) knowledge and users’ opinions and expertise. The CoMo platform will link this knowledge with the idea of an analytical management toolbox supporting decision makers from business, academia and government institutions.

To achieve this, the CoMo will combine three foresight tools in a single IT-based futures platform. This platform integrates user specific information from (1) a holistic Trend Database (TDB), (2) a collaborative Prediction Market application, and (3) an individual Future Workshop (“Zukunftswerkstatt”) application. The platform thus contributes to three major challenges that are frequently discussed in the context of future-oriented decision making environments:

First, the CoMo architecture is able to generate a holistic picture of the future as it combines qualitative and quantitative futures knowledge in a single Trend Database using the idea of linked data. Moreover, this knowledge can be used in online-based process-controlled Future Workshops that offer guidance in qualitative foresight methods (e.g. road mapping / backcasting, 1 The content of this publication is based on the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (project reference number: 01IC10L18 A). Project duration: 06/2010 – 05/2013. Responsibility for the content is with the author(s).

THEME: PREMISES AND PRACTICES IN COMBINING QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE FTA METHODS

- 1 -


12 & 13 May 2011

scenario and strategy building) as well as quantitative analyses (e.g. trend extrapolation, datamining). This approach guides and teaches users and thus decreases uncertainty in decision making through the combination of multiple foresight methods based on holistic information. In addition, there will be self-learning teaching material provided on the CoMo platform that widens the value-generating focus to decision makers that are non-experts in foresight (e.g. small and medium sized companies (SME)).

Second, the CoMo will utilize the knowledge and behaviour of its users, generating a vivid learning and social environment. Defined groups of users can collaborate in Prediction Markets, i.e. betting on the outcome of future events in a virtual market that combines wisdom of the crowds with market efficiency. Furthermore, the CoMo uses the idea of co-creation in that users can create and evaluate information in the Trend Database. Users will be incentivised through the idea of lead-users and social media and thus generate and share a vivid and contemporary information basis. As a result the CoMo architecture combines expert opinion from scientific resources with real-time user knowledge yielding the ability for comparisons and thus a more careful examination of the future.

Finally, the CoMo architecture will offer an individual decision making environment which increases information value and ease of use to the user. Users can interactively individualize their Futures Platform according to their interests by e.g. planned applications such as saving trend favourites, displaying related information or following a certain Prediction Market. Moreover, users may collaborate in and set up individual Future Workshops for defined topics, outcomes and user groups. Therefore, the CoMo will offer a convenient, efficient, and creative web-based environment that creates individual value using a participatory approach.

1 IntroductionThe ‘EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr’, synonym for leading-edge cluster in logistics and supply

chain management (SCM) in the German Ruhr area (larger Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region of more than 12 million people in North Rhine-Westphalia), aims like all leading-edge clusters to boost innovation and economic growth in Germany by bridging the gap between science and industry . Through strategic partnerships between research institutions, companies, and other stakeholders, research results with innovative potential relevant for future developments are fostered. Though clusters are regional concentrations within Germany, they contribute in finding new ways to growth and employment that gear not only Germany’s but the European Union’s economy towards greater sustainability . Precisely, this is what the leading-edge cluster on logistics and supply chain management incorporates.

The global aspire of the EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr is to secure tomorrow’s individuality, in the sense of mobility and distribution, with 75% of today’s resources. To achieve this, the cluster aims at the joint innovation capacity of scientific institutions and diverse companies, including many small and medium size enterprises, technology-oriented developers, software developers, and service providers, and many more. In their work they address the conflict between future individuality (i.e. the demand side) and resource scarcity (i.e. the supply side). Complexity of this natural antilogy is reduced through building seven key themes (“Leitthemen”) to which the research projects contribute. In sum, within five years time frame started June 2010 the leading-edge cluster aims to develop more than 100 concrete innovations with an estimated market potential of two billion Euros, generating approximately 4,000 jobs .


- 2 -


12 & 13 May 2011

A rigorous factor to sustainable success of the cluster, particularly to sustainable success of the ambitious innovations for logistics and mobility, is the stakeholders’ ability to make robust future-oriented decisions. The increasing depth of added values from logistics activities challenges companies across all industries. Simultaneously, globally changing economic and social conditions generate opportunities and threats for long-term value creation. More than ever logistics and value chain management has become an important factor in strategic planning and decision making . Consequently, the ability to make robust, valid and sustainable future-oriented decisions increasingly becomes a key competitive advantage for today’s companies and regions. While all innovations in the EffizienzCluster ultimately result in competitive advantages, the CoMo innovation especially intends to increase foresight potential and future robustness in decision making within the cluster. The integration of three foresight tools into a future-oriented IT platform where academia, business, and politics co-operate will ensure a sustainable competitive advantage for all stakeholders in the leading-edge cluster on logistics and supply chain management.

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. We first describe the leading-edge cluster Logistics and discuss its aims. Subsequently, we derive the challenges of foresight and future-oriented technology analysis in logistics, and thus for the cluster as a whole. Finally, we present the so far developed CoMo concept to address such challenges and highlight its importance for the cluster and beyond.

2 The leading-edge cluster in logisticsLogistics has developed from its role to deliver the right things at the right time to deciding

how the right things get there in the right time . Acknowledging this, logistics is what determines efficiency of moving goods, people and information. Thus, assuming the future need for increasing resource efficiency with increasing demand for goods and mobility, it is the duty of logisticians to develop products, ideas, and innovations that meet this antilogy. Precisely, this is what the EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr aims at. It is Germany’s largest research initiative in the area of logistics and mobility so far. Supported by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research, more than 130 stakeholders from academia and business participate in order to tackle the three central challenges: (1) efficient management of resources, (2) secure urban supply, and (3) facilitation of individuality in mobility. A detailed description of these challenges is stated in the following :

(1) Manage resources efficiently

The limited absorption capacity of ecosystems and the increasing scarcity of resources require a change in economy and society. Solutions have to be developed to design supply chain processes sustainable. Such solutions include full recovery of raw materials in terms of circular flow economies and integrated evaluation systems

to design procurement, production, and logistics resource- and energy-efficient. In addition, energy prices and their influence on global transport as well as availability of certain raw materials and their sound procurement increasingly become global competitive factors. Depending on industry and location, costs of logistics are estimated to have a 10 to 15% impact on final product prices. Thus, a major competitive advantage can be achieved through efficiency striving in supply chains. This becomes even more relevant assuming rising future resource scarcity.

(2) Secure urban supply


- 3 -


12 & 13 May 2011

Urban systems contribute to improving human living conditions; they are engines of growth and centres of productivity. However, urbanization also involves social, economic and environmental risks such as large and rather undirected land use, supply and disposal through overloaded infrastructure, high consumption of

resources, noise, and air pollution. Metropolitan areas, as centres of economic development and individual mobility, are especially subject to increases in passenger and freight transport. By year 2030, 60% of the world population will be living in urban areas and by 2020 car traffic will have increased by 20%, truck traffic by 34%, and rail transport by 55% in Germany . All these are challenges for improving supply chain activities. In addition, demographic trends, such as ageing, lead to new mobility needs and an increasing demand for completely new goods and services. This leads to enormous challenges for intelligent supply of highly dense and complex areas. Elements of new supply chain and mobility strategies for sustainable urban development include new mobility concepts, management of the dynamic complexity of different transport modes in a confined space, more efficient use of infrastructure, flexible combination of individual supply systems, improved networks in cities, and optimized supply and disposal, including modern "Reverse Logistics" (i.e. circular flow economy, urban mining).

(3) Facilitate individuality

In light of the described changes, sustaining and developing individualized life styles in a globalized society is the most fundamental and most demanding challenge. The pluralistic society calls for development in a context of unprecedented diversity of different lifestyles. This translates in rapidly changing consumer behaviour

demanding customized products, information, and services as well as in differentiation of markets, in increasing customer orientation, in changes in leisure activities, and in growing demands for individual mobility needs. It is the fundamental task of supply chain management to create the framework for these needs.

Clearly, the conflict between facilitating individualism and efficiency is complex to resolve. Especially, since the leading-edge cluster aims to enable future individualism with 75% of today’s resources. For achieving this target, joint research projects, each comprising strategic partnerships between business and academia, will develop vital principles, methods, or technologies. In order to reduce complexity each joint research project belongs to one of seven key themes (Leitthemen). These guiding topics represent the central innovation schemes enabling the ambitious target of the cluster. Figure 1 illustrates the seven key themes and their strategic position in relation to the three identified challenges.


- 4 -


12 & 13 May 2011

4. Logistics-

as-a-service

3. Flexible logisticsystems

2. Urban supply

5. Freight

transportationmanagement

1. Environmental

focus

7. Activation of

cluster potentials

6. Structural

competence

Figure 1: Guiding topics and central challenges

As illustrated, different guiding topics have different strategic roles in targeting the three central challenges. For this paper we focus on the guiding topic ‘Activation of Cluster Potentials’ as this is where the CoMo belongs and contributes to.

The guiding topic Activation of Cluster Potentials makes use of the unique construct that the cluster itself represents. The combination of business, research, education, politics and administration allows sharing of complementary resources and thus reduces "friction losses" from e.g. lack of coordination, bureaucracy, etc. The pooling of complementary resources frees stakeholders to concentrate on core competencies while implicit competitive knowledge is shared within the cluster. Although cooperation improves efficiency and mitigates the conflict of implementing ecologically and economically sustainable innovations, it requires coordination and future-oriented information and goes far beyond market relations or basic communication platforms. This is where the guiding topic Activation of Cluster Potentials contributes. Research in this guiding topic provides stakeholders in the cluster with future-relevant knowledge and innovative tools that enable robust, valid and sustainable future-oriented decision making. Hereby, interactive co-operation and co-creation on global and specific future topics creates a shared wisdom in the cluster. The CoMo foresight tool box builds the strategic competence that is needed to use this shared wisdom, i.e. to activate cluster potentials sustainably. Future-relevant knowledge related to manufacturing and services and their interplay with supply chain management is created and conveyed. Particularly, futures knowledge is build around the three central challenges of the cluster and supports cluster stakeholders in evaluating new strategies, processes, and technologies in light of these challenges.

3 The need for futures orientation in logisticsIn the general public, logistics is still often reduced to transport, handling, and storage. This

is, however, solely an antiquated point of view. During the past 50 years, logistics has undergone several development steps and evolved from individually managed, product-flow related activities to an integrated set of processes managed across multiple echelons of a


- 5 -


12 & 13 May 2011

supply chain . The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals sees logistics management as “part of supply chain management that plans, implements, and controls the efficient, effective forward and reverses flow and storage of goods, services and related information between the point of origin and the point of consumption in order to meet customers' requirements”. In the scope of global sourcing, production, and distribution, logistics has reached high strategic importance for companies today. Many logistics decisions involve large investments and have far-reaching influences on the course of a company. In times of increased outsourcing, expanding global operations, and heightened need for logistics customer service, it is actually often the basis for a company’s competitive strategy today . These developments have led to a paradigm change of the logistics understanding from a functional to a top management concern making strategic logistics planning essential to ensure sustainable competitiveness .

The future of the logistics industry is characterised by many upcoming challenges and opportunities . While the logistics market is expected to grow further, its business has become more volatile and uncertain. This can primarily be traced back to the increased competition in the industry. The trend towards globalisation has steadily increased with the effect that supply chains have become longer and more complex . In addition, many new competitors enter the global scene. This development is even intensified by the gradual reduction in barriers of trade. Moreover, the customer expectations have changed insofar as they demand quicker response times and more convenient offers. Today, companies have to be responsive in their structure as well as their processes in order to adapt quickly to current market demands . Due to the Internet and other media, customers have the opportunity to compare prices, quality, and services easily. The tolerance level for poor quality in products and services is thus very low. In most cases it is not sufficient any more to offer a specific product or service in the right quality, to the right costs, and within the right time. It is rather the added value offered to the customer that leads to differentiation and competitive advantages . Logistics services have emerged as an opportunity to offer such added value. But, as with most other services, demands and complexity have increased . Moreover, the logistics business is highly technology-dominated. Advancements in information and communication technology, such as Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) or satellite technology, are currently revolutionising logistics processes. Logistics nowadays means acting in complex networks of independent, but interdependent organisations . Intelligent solutions of information and communication technology (ICT) are an essential operation, control, and support instrument of such worldwide networks. Companies have to pay increased attention not to fall behind in technological standards in these times. Information and goods flows have to be synchronised on a global level, leading to high complexity in the system. To manage these systems efficiently is one of the major challenges for the logistics service industry.

The interplay between trends and developments described above leads to the turbulent environment logistics managers are facing today. The high degrees of complexity and dynamism in the external (logistics) environment drive the uncertainty faced by managers . The dynamism of markets and the related uncertainty frequently causes organizations to adapt strategic directions and rethink their planning practices . Uncertainty also means that logistics managers face greater risks in their business. The number of players in global logistics networks has risen, leading to more interfaces and intermodal operations. At the same time global logistics means longer distances, more handling processes, longer demurrage, and more complex administrative processes . In addition, international logistics service providers face greater risks, since they operate in foreign, often highly competitive markets. All these additional activities make supply chains more vulnerable.


- 6 -


12 & 13 May 2011

Given all these facts, there is a considerable need for futures orientation and innovation in logistics. Innovations are important drivers for growth and competitive advantage across all industries and its impact has significantly increased in the course of the current cut-throat competition in the logistics service industry . The ongoing globalisation requires flexibility, creativity, and readiness to assume risks with respect to global presence, service offers, and the organisation of networks. Therefore, logistics companies continuously have to adapt their services, products, and processes to the changing customer demands and market environments . Process innovations can help to reduce cost of manufacture as well as logistics cost, whereas product innovations in form of new services allow for differentiation in competition. Similarly important, but even more backward than innovation management, is the proliferation of futures research and related techniques in logistics. Being competent in both innovation management and futures research is perhaps the most important source of competitive advantage for organisations in tomorrow’s knowledge economy . In best practice, both innovation management and futures research are linked and contribute to each other . Companies that proactively examine the future are able to develop contingency plans and can therefore better prepare for changes. Futures research helps to cope with uncertainty in the business environment and enables to react faster on future developments, realising a competitive advantages.

Since logistics management is seen as a strategic issue nowadays, long-range planning has become more and more attractive in order to support far-reaching logistics decisions . However, the potentials of futures research in logistics have by no means been realised yet. As a consequence of increased uncertainty, the majority of logistics planners are currently unsatisfied with their planning and prognoses tools and feel that they have to change planning practices in the future. In fact, numerous studies have pointed to the need to apply new and innovative techniques in strategic logistics planning .

The CoMo addresses the need for innovative foresight methods in strategic logistics planning. Importantly, this is facilitated in an innovative environment provided by the leading-edge cluster in logistics. Thus, the CoMo is not only an innovation by itself but establishes a direct link between the futures field, the cluster and innovation management for 100 innovations of the future.

4 Competitiveness MonitorAs part of the guiding topic Activation of Cluster potentials, the CoMo is, in the first instance,

a joint research project aiming to create and convey future-oriented knowledge within the cluster. In total four diverse partners (a large manufacturing corporation, a supply chain management consultancy, an IT service provider, and a research institution) are working together in the CoMo project to ensure high levels of scientific rigor and industry relevance. CoMo comprises a future-oriented IT platform where science, business, and politics co-operate to ensure a sustainable competitive advantage for all stakeholders and innovations in the leading-edge cluster. This translates into four major challenges for CoMo:

(1) Creating, linking, and processing information about future macro- and microeconomic developments in logistics and its environment;

(2) Providing educative information on futures studies and teaching future skills;

(3) Incentivizing stakeholders to systematically deal with their futures and to foster innovation;

(4) Stimulating co-operation among cluster stakeholders.


- 7 -


12 & 13 May 2011

In order to address these challenges, we developed a CoMo architecture that integrates three innovative foresight tools. The structure and interrelation of the tools is illustrated in a framework in Figure 2 and elaborated on in the subsequent sections.

1. Futures Platform (+ education package)

4. Prediction Markets

2. Trend Database

3. Future Workshop

Transfer

Link

Figure 2: Conceptual framework of the Competitiveness Monitor

Since June 2010 the joint project team is involved in intense scientific desk research and analysis, requirement analyses, concept development as well as multiple participatory workshop sessions with external experts. So far, a solid fundament for the CoMo joint research project could be established. Roughly 1,000 ideas (or requirements) for tool functionalities and interfaces were identified, classified and prioritized. The process of the requirement analysis was conducted systematically, supported by the ‘Volere Requirements Specification Template’ . Requirements were classified according to the apps (Futures Platform, Trend Database, Future Workshop, Prediction Markets, or app-interlinkages), type (functional, non-functional, or constraint) and categorical purpose (e.g. user collaboration). A three dimensional framework consisting of (1) feasibility, (2) innovativeness and (3) importance was developed to narrow down and evaluate requirements. Thereby, it was important to acknowledge underlying assumptions and dependencies between the dimensions. In most cases there is a trade-off between feasibility and innovativeness. Furthermore, importance is characterized by ones’ perspective and depends on stakeholder needs. Dealing with this complexity in our evaluations, a stakeholder and use-case analysis proved useful in resolving the trade-offs and acknowledging the stakeholder environment of the leading-edge cluster. The outcome and status quo of our analysis together with related theoretical foundations are discussed in the following sections.

4.1 Futures PlatformThe requirement analysis for our Futures Platform revealed an increasing demand for

integrating social systems into company-specific and cross-company IT solutions. Existing solutions include Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Social Customer Relationship Management (CRM) systems like MindMatters Innovator, Target Idea Management, Jive, or Lithium .


- 8 -


12 & 13 May 2011

Our Futures Platform is intended to serve as the users’ personalized login portal. Important information about previously selected contents from the other three tools is displayed here. Users can interactively individualize their Futures Platform according to their interest by e.g. saving trend favourites, displaying related information or following a certain Prediction Market. This flexible and individualized structure offers an individual decision making environment which increases ease and incentivizes overall use. Furthermore, users communicate directly through the Futures Platform to elaborate on future-relevant topics. The three applications Trend Database, Future Workshop, and Prediction Market are linked to the platform and can be accessed, especially users can inquire experts to cooperatively start and apply them. The cooperative nature of the platform shall increase transparency and access to knowledge for all stakeholders in the cluster. Information asymmetries can be reduced and velocity of communication and innovative potential increase. Importantly, individual needs through personalization will be ensured and not jeopardized through the cooperative nature.

Since the provided tools have an innovative character, the platform will include an educational self-learning package, structured in a curricula form. Here, training content is provided for self-studies, enabling the successful use of the tools that are vital in individual future planning. In that way, it can be assured that especially newcomers to strategic planning and foresight, e.g. small and medium sized enterprises, can use the platform to build up foresight competencies. This seems crucial in light of the earlier discussed issues of complexity and dynamism driving the logistics and mobility environment. The educational part of CoMo will reduce uncertainty and entry barriers to future-oriented decision making and its related tools.

4.2 Trend DatabaseIn the beginning of the TDB concept development process, we analysed and evaluated

existing TDB in order to identify the state-of-the-art. In total, the concepts of eight providers were selected in order to support the requirement analysis process for the CoMo TDB. This included the TDB architectures of Z_punkt, FutureManagementGroup, TrendOne, Shaping Tomorrow, TechCast, iKnow, TrendWiki, and Trendwatching.2

Our Trend Database concept represents the quantitative and qualitative pool of future-relevant knowledge that is provided to and provided by the cluster actors. A user queries future-oriented numbers, data, and facts to specific logistics-related topics such as oil price, CO2-emissions, or technologies. The TDB shall not only include trend related data, but also handle weak signals, wildcards and disruptive events3. Query results are planned to be filtered through an intelligent algorithm that depends on a chosen ‘flight level’. Flight level is determined due to a flexible combination of trend descriptives, e.g. geographical scope. Users will have the ability to export trend relevant information in standard formats or save trends in a personal space, which incorporates the individual decision making environment of CoMo. The possibility to acknowledge trends early and systematically creates significant competitive advantages for the cluster and ensures sustainable management and acting in the field of logistics.

Similarly to the Futures Platform, the Trend Database embodies co-operating elements of users. Co-operation in the Trend Database translates into co-creation, where users are

2 We present detailed results of this TDB analyses in our 4th FTA 2011 conference paper “Trend Database design for effectively managing foresight knowledge – A sophisticated FTA content base architecture to enable foresight processes”.3 We present more detailed insights on the systematic identification and inclusion of wildcards and disruptions relevant to CoMo’s TDB app in our 4th FTA 2011 poster and brief “An approach towards Delphi-based disruptive and surprising transformation scenarios – The case of the future of aviation 2025”.


- 9 -


12 & 13 May 2011

incentivized to share their knowledge. Users can, for example, evaluate existing trends in terms of impact or likelihood, participate in surveys, or create completely new future-relevant knowledge and thus collaborate productively . While consumer co-creation can bring substantial benefits to a company’s innovation processes , the fundamental concept of co-creation is relevant for the Trend Database. Stakeholders of the leading-edge cluster itself are involved in sustaining actuality, validity, and relevancy of future-relevant knowledge in the database. In combination with a quality control system (e.g. obligatory text fields when creating content, etc.), this solves one of the core challenges that a Trend Database faces, which is decision quality of the data. By allowing and incentivizing users to share individual wisdom, overall wisdom increases . Essentially, this is congruent with CoMo’s guiding topic, i.e. sharing complementary resources to generate overall future-relevant wisdom/knowledge. An essential factor to success with this approach is getting users to participate. The CoMo will facilitate the concept of lead users to achieve this . Users can gain status and credits from active participation that can subsequently be used in e.g. the Prediction Market application or specific educative sessions. Ultimately, the combination of provided expert foresight knowledge and wisdom of the crowds can build a holistic construct of the future for a stakeholder in the leading-edge cluster.

Related to this, another characterizing idea of the Trend Database and thus the CoMo relates to linkage. Data points by themselves cannot build a holistic picture of the future of logistics, if one does not know how they interact. The Trend Database architecture shall be linked in three dimensions using a semantic structure. First, trends will be linked among each other, providing users with valuable additional information. Knowing a trend’s antecedents, i.e. knowing the trend environment, can draw the holistic picture. Decision makers can identify early warnings and weak signals and consequently react faster to sudden changes in their futures. Second, the trend database will be linked with the two other tools: Prediction Market and Future Workshop. While the Prediction Market app will provide an additional data source and contribute in the overall incentivizing issue, a digital Future Workshop will be based on data that is transferred from the Trend Database. Hence, the direct linkage between raw data (i.e. Trend Database) and analysis tool box (i.e. Future Workshop) provides users with the ability to generate direct individual value. Third, the Trend Database is expected to be linked with external data pools. Facilitating the idea of linked data, relevant external information has to be included increasing the basis for drawing future relevant decisions .

In sum, the Trend Database will take up the function of an intelligent unit within the CoMo that generates and links future-relevant knowledge facilitating cooperation among the stakeholders of the cluster and reducing complexity.

4.3 Future Workshop (“Zukunftswerkstatt”)The Future Workshop app represents the element of CoMo where trends are systematically

projected into individual futures and recommended options and actions can be derived. The fundamental idea of a Future Workshop has been developed by Robert Jungk, Ruediger Lutz and Norbert R. Muellert in the 1970s . This foresight technique is solution-oriented and comprises the four phases: (1) Preparation Phase, (2) Critique phase, (3) Fantasy Phase, (4) Implementation phase. The key innovation of the CoMo is that it will enable for a web-based Future Workshop as well as its interlinkage with internal and external foresight tools and data pools.


- 10 -


12 & 13 May 2011

In our internal analysis as well as expert workshops we revealed that elements of scenario planning , roadmapping , backcasting4 and Imagineering promise high procedural value for a Future Workshop. We came to the conclusion that we will apply best practices from these three approaches into the concept of the Future Workshop in order to establish a valid and reliable web-based foresight process.

In our Future Workshop app users will be able to use the Trend Database as a discussion basis and digitally collaborate in global or private workshop environments. Stakeholders of the cluster, for example from a certain company, are led through a process of problem identification, innovation, and creativity towards problem solving, while spatial boundaries are overcome. Thereby, Future Workshops will facilitate a future-oriented strategic logistics planning. For example, in process-controlled scenario analysis workshops, possible strategic orientations can be evaluated in relation to factors of success such as sustainability. Decision makers can actively shape their futures combining qualitative and quantitative information from the Trend Database to build a robust decision space. Within the cluster, global Future Workshops can later assess specific topics more efficiently that are vital to overall cluster success such as last mile solutions. Results of Future Workshops are among others recommended actions, action plans, priority lists, or roadmaps incorporating a tangible increase in decision quality. Finally, due to a compatible programming solution unlimited extensions (e.g. web mining) can be added to the strategic tool box providing adaptability to individual needs and thus representing a sustainable innovation to logistics foresight and strategic planning.

4.4 Prediction MarketThe requirement analysis for the CoMo Prediciton Market app revealed promising

applications for stakeholders in the leading-edge cluster. Among others these may forecast CO2 emissions and related political regulations or general indexes for the logistics industry. Our CoMo Prediction Market app will supplement Future Workshops and the Trend Database by providing an innovative foresight method that generates futures knowledge and by complementing the CoMo platform. Prediction markets originally evolved in psephology and proved to obtain significantly better forecasts than classical opinion polls – recently they have therefore been transferred into the business world . In the Prediction Market app CoMo users will be able to bet on the outcome of future events in a virtual environment. Future events are treated as stocks where prices represent likelihood of occurrence for example. Users lose and gain virtual credits according to their forecast accuracy, which incentivizes participation and accuracy. The theoretical foundation for the information efficiency of prediction markets bases on the combination of the wisdom of crowds and the Hayek-Hypothesis about market efficiency . A single stock prize represents the aggregated wisdom/knowledge of all market players while competition in the market ensures efficiency in aggregating asymmetric distributed information.

Similarly to the other described CoMo apps, Prediction Markets contribute to CoMo’s superior aim defined through its guiding topic, i.e. sharing complementary resources to generate overall future-relevant wisdom/knowledge in the leading edge-cluster. Hereby, Prediction Markets will represent an innovative, flexible, and robust forecasting method. Stakeholders in the cluster will be incentivized and systematically supported in future-oriented decision making. Potential benefits from investment decisions, idea management, or market developments can be 4 We present more detailed results on the approach of backcasting for mobility research and the possible contribution to the CoMo in our 4th FTA 2011 conference paper “Developing a backcasting approach for systemic transformation towards sustainable mobility – The case of the Automotive Industry in Germany”.


- 11 -


12 & 13 May 2011

evaluated effectively and cooperatively. Global and private Prediction Markets will assess company specific as well as cluster related topics in logistics and mobility and will be linked with the Trend Database increasing overall future-knowledge in the cluster.

5 ConclusionGermany’s biggest research project in logistics and mobility envisions to achieve tomorrow’s

individuality with 75% of today’s resources representing the key challenge to a sustainable future of mobility and transport. To achieve this in our fast-paced globalized economy, one has to acknowledge that logistics has evolved from an operative task to a strategic management issue requiring sophisticated planning and foresight. In the context of the ambitious innovations developed in the leading-edge cluster it is essential to provide a platform that utilizes the cluster’s unique combination of more than 130 partners from business, academia, and politics in order to share complementary resources, specifically to share knowledge that is relevant for their future-oriented decisions. The CoMo will provide such a platform by mid 2013. It will provide an IT environment that integrates three innovative foresight tools in order to aid in strategic planning and future-oriented decision making for logistics and related topics. The combination of a Trend Database, a Future Workshop app, and a Prediction Market app will facilitate cooperation, will provide a shared future-relevant knowledge basis, and will provide individual future-oriented decision support. Ultimately, the CoMo contributes to the superior aim of the leading-edge cluster by fostering stakeholders’ future-oriented decision quality. Thus, sustainable success of innovations and competitive advantages of stakeholders in the leading-edge cluster in logistics is likely to be achieved.

In our paper we have presented our current research results on developing an integrated foresight platform for the German leading-edge cluster in logistics. It has to be noted that the research presented is still in progress and that the ideas, concepts and thoughts of the CoMo may still change during the ongoing project as well as during following technological feasibility analyses. Next steps from now on are IT concept finalizing, prototype programming of the different web-based applications, self-study teaching material developing, and prototype testing.

References


- 12 -

Abstract Titleforera.jrc.ec.europa.eu/fta_2011/documents/download... · Web viewCompetitiveness...

Documents

Transcript of Abstract Titleforera.jrc.ec.europa.eu/fta_2011/documents/download... · Web viewCompetitiveness...