ABOITIZ POWER CORPORATION...2011 2010 2011 2010 parent & others (862) (988) (267) (332) power...
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ABOITIZ POWER CORPORATION Third Quarter/YTD September 2011 Financial & Operating Results 4 November 2011
Transcript of ABOITIZ POWER CORPORATION...2011 2010 2011 2010 parent & others (862) (988) (267) (332) power...
ABOITIZ POWER CORPORATION
Third Quarter/YTD September 2011Financial & Operating Results
4 November 2011
NET INCOME (in million pesos)
2
Distribution Generation AP Parent
18,538EPS = P2.52ROE = 75% 16,236
EPS = P2.21ROE = 43%12%
-16%
+41%
5,1065,488
5,824
QUARTERLY BREAKDOWN
3%3%
5,641
454 569 731 654
4,416 5,040
5,201 4,758
1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 3Q2010
3
CORE NET INCOME (in million pesos)
18,003EPS = P2.45ROE = 73%
14%
-17%
+41%
4,651
5,273 5,132
QUARTERLY BREAKDOWN
7% 10%
Distribution Generation AP Parent
Non-Recurring Items9M2010 9M2011
FX gains/(loss) - Parent (9) (3) FX gains/(loss) - Generation 943 (34) STEAG refinancing cost (398) - TMI Revenue Adjustment 348 STEAG NPC reimbursement - 179
TLI Cost Reversal - 195
536 685
Non-Recurring Items1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 3Q2010
FX gains/(loss) - Parent (47) 6 38 (51) FX gains/(loss) - Generation 154 30 (218) 1,141 STEAG refinancing cost - - - (398) TMI Revenue Adjustment 348 - - - STEAG NPC Reimbursement - 179 - - TLI Cost Reversal - - 194 -
455 215 14 692
15,551EPS = P2.11ROE = 41%
5,627
759 936 1,155 1,040
7,310 7,486 8,252
7,094
1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 3Q2010
2,091 2,850
25,042 23,049
9M2010 9M2011
4
PROFORMA EBITDA (in million pesos)
26,999 25,7305%
-8%
+36%
8,0198,367 8,094
QUARTERLY BREAKDOWN
15%12%
Distribution Generation AP Parent
9,344
421 392 713 1,526
329 459 386 1,174
1,247 1,609 1,159
4,015
1,471 1,701 1,580
4,752
750 564 486
1,800
368 312 570
1,250
1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 9M2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 9M2011
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: GENERATION
ENERGY SALES BREAKDOWN (GWh)
Contracted (Capacity) Contracted (Energy) Spot Market
5
2%7,340 7,175
2,418 2,5662,168
2,472
+18%
-23%
-31%
25%
55%
21%
17%
66%
16%
2,357 2,535
(6,000)
(4,000)
(2,000)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar
-08
Apr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8Au
g-08
Sep-
08O
ct-0
8No
v-08
Dec-
08Ja
n-09
Feb-
09M
ar-0
9Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun-
09Ju
l-09
Aug-
09Se
p-09
Oct
-09
Nov-
09De
c-09
Jan-
10Fe
b-10
Mar
-10
Apr-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0Au
g-10
Sep-
10O
ct-1
0No
v -10
Dec-
10Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
Peak Off Peak All HoursNote: 1. Calculated based on raw data downloaded from the WESM website as of Sept 2011. July 26 –
October 25, 2008 prices are reflective of NPC TOU rates.
Source: WESM, SNAP
WESM AVERAGE PRICES (P/MWh)
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: 9M2011 WESM HIGHLIGHTS
6
• Gas curtailments• Low Hydro• High Outages• Fuel limitations
• Forced outages of Masinloc, StaRita, Malaya & Ilijan
• High Outage: 1 unit of Sual and Calaca on outage
• Hydros still on minimal output
Typhoon Pepeng
Typhoon Ondoy
YTD PricesPeak Off Peak All Hours
2010 7,681 3,827 5,898 Sept 2010 7,960 4,295 6,263 Sept 2011 4,325 2,072 3,263
AVERAGE CAPACITY ON OUTAGE (in MW)
Source: WESM, SNAP7
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: 9M2011 WESM HIGHLIGHTS
2,526
1,698 1,704
1,355
384
1,128
9691,074
1,666
1,251
847
645727
614 563
809
1,130
1,510
January February March April May June July August September
2010 2011
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: 9M2011 WESM HIGHLIGHTS
8Source: www.accuweather.com
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (in oC)
20102011
26.6 27.1
27.7
29.2 29.8
28.6
27.8 27.3 27.5
25.8 26.6
26.6
27.7 28.3
27.6 27.1 27.3 27.1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep
WEEKLY SYSTEM PEAK DEMAND (in MW)
Source: WESM 9
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: 9M2011 WESM HIGHLIGHTS
20102011
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
w1 w2 w3 w4 w5 w6 w7 w8 w9 w10 w11 w12 w13 w14 w15 w16 w17 w18 w19 w20 w21w22 w23w24 w25w26 w27 w28 w29 w30 w31 w32 w33 w34 w35 w36 w37 w38 w39 w40
605 783
9M2010 9M2011
29%
ATTRIBUTABLE ENERGY SALES (GWh)
9M2010
9M2011
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: HYDRO
CONTRACTED ENERGY (GWh), at 100%
SPOT MARKET (GWh), at 100%
NET CAPACITY FACTOR
10
68 100
201 268
39
148 114 205
334
Hedcor Sibulan HEDCOR LHC SNAP Magat SNAP Benguet
200 167
132 166
SNAP Magat SNAP Benguet
34%40% 44%
15%
31%
53% 49% 45%
16%26%
Hedcor Sibulan HEDCOR LHC SNAP Magat SNAP Benguet
MAGAT’S WATER LEVEL VS. RULE CURVE (in MASL)
Source: SNAP1Q 2Q 4Q3Q
11
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: HYDRO
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
2010 Water Level
2011 Water Level
Magat Rule Curve (meter)
Critical Level
6.70
7.64
3.60 3.70
SNAP Magat SNAP Benguet
Chart Title
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE (in P/kWh)
9M2010
9M2011
CONTRACTED ENERGY SPOT MARKET
12
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: HYDRO
4.83 4.52
3.15
4.48
5.50 5.12 5.06
2.50
4.52
H Sibulan HEDCOR LHC SNAP Magat SNAP Benguet
Chart Title
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: HYDRO
13
ANCILLARY SERVICES(at 100%)
Ancillary Revenues(in million pesos)
Accepted & Billed Capacity(in GW/h)
2,027
6,453
135
1,630
9M2010 9M2011
378
1,675
460
9M2010 9M2011
SNAP Magat
SNAP Benguet
2,162
8,083
416
2,134
274% 413%
421 392 713 1,526
329 459 386 1,174
1,247 1,609 1,159
4,015
1,471 1,701 1,580
4,752
750 564 486
1,800
368 312 570
1,250
84 31 93
208
345 342 380
1,067
1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 9M2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 9M2011
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: HYDRO
EFFECT OF ANCILLARY SERVICES TO BENEFICIAL CAPACITY SOLD(in GW/h)
14
9%7,548
8,242
2,502 2,596 2,5132,814
+18%
-23%
-31%
53%
24%
20%
13%
58%
14%
2,4502,915
Accepted AS CapacityContracted (Capacity) Contracted (Energy) Spot Market
+413%3%
15%
2,017 2,003
565 492
9M2010 9M2011
4.42 4.71
6.00
2.93
4.77 4.36
9M2010 9M2011
BCQ
WESM
WTD Ave
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: GEOTHERMAL
15
Energy Sales(in GWh)
Average Selling Prices (P/kWh)
Steam Vented (GWh)
AP RENEWABLES (Tiwi-Makban)
55
79
9M2010 9M2011
3%
2,582 2,495
BCQ
WESM
Steam Cost @ P1.03/kWh
Net Capacity Factor
84% 80%
Steam Cost @ P1.11/kWh
Attributable Energy Sales
1,171
2,608
302
3,086
1,091
2,704
975
3,333
STEAG TLI CEDC
ENERGY SALES (GWh)
NET CAPACITY FACTOR
9M2010
9M2011
8%
16
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: COAL
85%
57% 51%
79%
56% 60%
STEAG TLI CEDC
5.51
8.25
6.61
BCQ WESM WTD Ave
THERMA LUZON (Pagbilao) 9M2010 Average Selling PriceP/kWh
17
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: COAL
Energy Sales(in GWh)
1,557
2,124
1,051
580
9M2010 9M2011
5.44
4.45
5.23
BCQ WESM WTD Ave
9M2011 Average Selling PriceP/kWh
Coal Cost + Energy Fee = P1.89/kWhCoal Cost = P1.75/kWh
Coal Cost + Energy Fee = P2.33/kWhCoal Cost = P2.26/kWh
2,7042,608
4%
BCQ
WESM
187 212 252 398
717
1,067
76 75 199
330 376 565
EAUC CPPC SPPC WMPC Therma Marine
47%ENERGY SALES (GWh)
AttributableEnergy Sales
NET CAPACITY FACTOR
9M2010
9M2011
18
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: OIL
47% 42%
72% 62% 72%
7% 16%
57% 52%29%
EAUC CPPC SPPC WMPC Therma Marine
LAKE LANAO WATER LEVEL (in MASL)
19
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: OIL
698.00
698.50
699.00
699.50
700.00
700.50
701.00
701.50
702.00
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100 109 118 127 136 145 154 163 172 181 190 199 208 217 226 235 244 253 262 271 280 289 298 307 316 325 334 343 352 361
2010 2011 critical level shutdown
3,006
8,216
11,221
6,044 6,876
12,936
Hydro Geothermal Total Beneficial EBITDA
9M2010
9M2011
25,042 23,049
9M2010 9M2011
1,155
12,666 13,821
1,507
8,611 10,113
Oil Coal Total Beneficial EBITDA
9M2010
9M2011
Amounts in Million Pesos
RENEWABLE PLANTS15%
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: GENERATION
PF BENEFIClAL EBITDA
20
27%THERMAL PLANTS
8%
1,896 1,971 2,127 2,419 2,461 2,507 2,790 3,142 3,322 3,606 2,677 2,764
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 9M2010 9M2011
740
1,937
2,677
733
2,031
2,764
Residential Commercial & Industrial Total Power Sales
9M2010 9M2011
BENEFICIAL POWER SALES (Gwhr)
3%
BENEFICIAL GWH SALES GROWTH(BY CUSTOMER TYPE)
3%
PEAK DEMAND (MW)
4%
1%
5%
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: DISTRIBUTION
21
282 378
25 81 81
22 24
893
272 407
23 88 83
25 30
928
DLPC VECO CLPC SFELAPCO SEZ MEZ BEZ Total
9M2010 9M2011
1% 1%
3%
8% 7%
9.4%10.1%
1% 1%
4%5%
8%9.2%
9.7%
SYSTEMS LOSSGROSS MARGIN / KWH SALE
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: DISTRIBUTION
* Adjusted for timing of transmission charge recovery
** 12 month moving average
22
SFELAPCOSEZ DLPC VECOCLPCMEZ BEZ
9M2010
9M2011
Gov’t Cap – 8.50%
0.96
1.05 1.07
1.03 1.14 1.20
1.28 1.27
1.21 1.16
1.25
1.45
* ***
36%
PF BENEFICIAL EBITDA
OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS: DISTRIBUTION
Amounts in Million Pesos
9M2010
9M2011
23
1,079
522 106 81 179 79 46
2,091 1,711
647 90 95 179 67 62
2,850
DLPC VECO CLPC SFELAPCO SEZ MEZ BEZ Total Beneficial EBITDA
FINANCIAL CONDITION
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BALANCE SHEET(In million Pesos)
Cash and Equivalents
YE2010
Total Assets
Total Interest Bearing Debt
Total Liabilities
Net Debt
Total Equity
Current Ratio
Net Debt to Equity
11,082
40,487
13,073
16,427
1,991
24,060
4.7x
0.1x
Investments and Advances 28,949
End-Sept 2011
9,294
42,029
16,759
17,075
7,465
24,954
22.8X
0.3x
29,937
PARENT
YE2010
18,302
134,557
67,065
76,823
48,763
57,734
2.6x
0.8x
28,799
End-Sept 2011
22,516
150,392
74,435
84,422
51,919
65,970
3.3x
0.8x
29,403
CONSOLIDATED
FINANCIAL CONDITION
25
BALANCE SHEET(In million Pesos) YE2010
Total Interest Bearing Debt
Net Debt
Equity*
Net Debt to Equity
86,953
62,921
57,330
1.10
End-Sept 2011
94,635
65,759
64,234
1.02
BENEFICIAL
Cash 24,033 28,876
*Equity Attributable to Parent
Net Debt to EBITDA 1.72
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OUTLOOK: Generation Business
LUZON GRID
Binga Hydro 20 MW
Tiwi-Makban 17 MW
Subic Coal 600 MW
Magat Hydro 90-115 MW
Pagbilao Coal 380-400 MW
MINDANAO GRID
Tamugan Hydro 11.5 MW
Tudaya 1&2 Hydro 13.6 MW
Davao Coal 300 MW
Unified Leyte Geothermal plants (EDC) 550 MW, Visayas Grid
IPPA: Caliraya-Botokan-Kalayaan Hydro (J Power) 728 MW, Luzon Grid
IPPA: Casecnan Hydro, 150 MW, Luzon Grid
Asset Sale: Agus Hydro 727 MW & Pulangi Hydro 255 MW, Mindanao Grid
BROWN/GREENFIELD PRIVATIZATION
Annex A: EARNINGS BREAKDOWN
27
(in million pesos) YEAR - TO - DATE FOR THE QUARTER
INVESTEE ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL2011 2010 2011 2010
Parent & Others (862) (988) (267) (332)Power Generation Group: HEDCOR INC 104 31 168 164 HEDCOR SIBULAN 264 165 114 125 LUZON HYDRO 148 118 111 93 SNAP MAGAT 3,179 962 1,256 894 SNAP BENGUET 531 489 140 422 SPPC 41 34 11 11 WMPC 118 135 32 28 CPPC 182 142 68 41 EAUC 134 126 40 43 THERMA MOBILE (5) 6 (5) (0) THERMA MARINE 748 405 188 (49) STEAG 977 238 280 (173) ABOVANT HOLDINGS (CEDC) 253 56 136 41 THERMA LUZON 2,518 7,951 750 1,447 AP RENEWABLES 6,114 7,424 1,859 2,427 OTHERS 39 3 31 (12)
Sub-Total Power Generation 15,344 18,285 5,177 5,502Power Distribution Group: COTABATO LIGHT & POWER 36 54 17 22 DAVAO LIGHT & POWER 1,088 650 446 442 VISAYAN ELECTRIC CO. 382 286 198 106 SFELAPCO 48 38 13 17 SUBIC ENERZONE 89 104 25 31 MACTAN ENERZONE 59 72 16 26 BALAMBAN ENERZONE 51 38 16 10
Sub-Total Power Distribution 1,754 1,241 731 654TOTAL NET INCOME 16,236 18,538 5,641 5,824
NET INCOME TO COMMON 16,236 18,538 5,641 5,824% increase (decrease) -12% -3%
RECURRING NET INCOME 15,551 18,003 5,627 5,132% increase (decrease) -14% 10%
RECURRING INCOME before Finan 19,611 21,794 7,005 6,415% increase (decrease)
1,241 1,754
21,532 18,716
9M2010 9M2011
454 569 731 654
5,745 6,392
6,579 6,041
1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 3Q2010
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Annex B: CORE NET INCOME, Ex Pagbilao (in million pesos)
Distribution Generation AP Parent
Pagbilao Finance Lease Effect9M2010 9M2011
Accreted Interest Expense 3,815 4,060 Depreciation 821 821 PSALM Monthly Payments (844) (821)
3,791 4,060
Pagbilao Finance Lease Effect1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 3Q2010
Accreted Interest Expense 1,331 1,352 1,376 1,291 Depreciation 274 274 274 274 PSALM Monthly Payments (276) (274) (272) (281)
1,330 1,352 1,378 1,283
21,794EPS = P2.96ROE = 89%
10%
-13%
+41%
5,981
6,625 6,415
QUARTERLY BREAKDOWN
6% 9%
19,611EPS = P2.67ROE = 52%
7,005
183 158
565 492
1,051
593
9M2010 9M2011
422 625
2,017 2,003
1,557 2,124 19
9M2010 9M2011
478 616
1,048 558
9M2010 9M2011
CONTRACTED (ENERGY) CONTRACTED (CAPACITY)
SPOT MARKET
18%
4,752
23%
31%
Geothermal
Hydro
Coal
Oil
1,526
1,174
1,800
1,250
4,015
Annex C: OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS – GENERATION
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*Figures are in GWh
Annex D: DEBT PROFILE – AP PARENT
Maturity Profile - PhPM(As of September 2011)
Breakdown by Tenor(As of September 2011)
Breakdown by Currency(As of September 2011)
30
Breakdown by Interest Rate(As of September 2011)
6 711
3,336
7,300
526
5,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Long Term
99.97%
Short Term0.03% Peso
100%
Fixed100%
Annex E: DEBT PROFILE – AP BENEFICIAL
Maturity Profile - PhPM(As of September 2011)
Breakdown by Tenor(As of September 2011)
Breakdown by Currency(As of September 2011)
31
Breakdown by Interest Rate(As of September 2011)
2,339
5,526
11,448
14,615
7,966
12,017
7,639 5,460 5,059
8,198
3,801 3,454 2,915 2,636 1,361
198
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Long Term98%
Short Term
2%
Peso66%
Dollar34%
JPY0% Fixed
98%
Floater2%
PROJECT UPDATE
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AMBUKLAO-BINGA REHABILITATION
Total combined project cost of $280 million
- $189 million for 75 MW Ambuklao + $10 million for new
headrace tunnel
- $81 million for 100 MW Binga
Target completion dates for Ambuklao
- All three units done by 3Q2011
- Rated capacity now at 105 MW
Target completion dates for Binga
- Unit 1: 2011
- Unit 2: 2012
- Unit 3: 2013
- Unit 4: 2014
- To increase capacity to 120 MW
Capex spent as of end-Sept 2011 at $260.9 million
Annex F: PROJECT UPDATE
32
TIWI-MAKBAN REHABILITATION
• At Makban
• Completion rate at 88% as of end-September 2011
• Estimated completion date within 2Q2012
• At Tiwi
• Completion rate at 65% as of end-September 2011
• Estimated completion date within 3Q2012
• As of end-Sept 2011, total actual capex spent at P2.9 billion (roughly $66 million, out of the combined project cost of roughly $120 million)
• After completion of the refurbishment, rehabilitation and resource improvements, the combined production capacity could reach roughly 480 MW (taking into account current steam supply and decline rates), with improvements in plant efficiency, reliability and availability
PROJECT UPDATEAnnex F: PROJECT UPDATE (cont’d)
33Makban Plant E
Tiwi Geothermal Field
PROJECT UPDATE
34
242 MW NAVOTAS POWER BARGES
To undergo rehabilitation, which involves:
– Overhaul of engines
– Repair of barge super-structure and deck
– Possible dry docking
– Construction of new transmission line
Total rehab cost estimated at ~$30 million
Estimated rehab timeline
– 4Q2011: 123 MW
– 1Q2012: 52 MW
– 2Q2012: 67 MW
Off-take
– Merchant
– Possible contracts for peaking capacity
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Annex F: PROJECT UPDATE (cont’d)
Thank you
