ABN AMRO “Well positioned for growth” Rijkman Groenink Chairman of the Managing Board New York,...

35
ABN AMRO “Well positioned for growth” Rijkman Groenink Chairman of the Managing Board New York, 10 December 2004 ABN AMRO Benelux Conference

Transcript of ABN AMRO “Well positioned for growth” Rijkman Groenink Chairman of the Managing Board New York,...

ABN AMRO

“Well positioned for growth”

Rijkman Groenink

Chairman of the Managing Board

New York, 10 December 2004ABN AMRO Benelux Conference

2

Agenda

Strategy and YTD 2004 results

Challenges & Opportunities in 2005

Cost and revenue synergies

Concluding Remarks

3

Successful Multi-Regional Strategy

We aim to drive our shareholder returns through a multi-regional strategy with a focus on commercial and consumer banking, supported by an international wholesale franchise We will achieve this by:

1. Focusing on consumer and commercial clients in chosen home markets, selected

wholesale clients with an emphasis on Europe, as well as financial institutions

and private clients

2. Creating value for our clients by offering high-quality financial solutions that best

meet their needs and long-term goals

3. Leveraging our advantaged product and people capabilities to the benefit of all

our client bases

4. Sharing expertise and operational excellence across the Group

5. Creating ‘fuel for growth’ by optimally allocating capital and talent

4

Network of leading market positions

All figures based on Brazilian GAAP

TOP 4 PRIVATELY OWNED BANK IN BRAZIL

TOP RANKING US REGIONAL

FRANCHISE IN THE MID-WEST

EUROPEAN PRIVATE BANKING:# 1 Netherlands# 3 France and Germany

Top 8 US mortgage servicer

WCS European franchise with top 3 Global Trade and Cash & Payment platform

NETHERLANDS:Top commercial bank for large SME and affluent customers

Source: SNL financials

INDIA Growing mass affluent retail franchises (15 branches)

GREATER CHINA Focus on Hong Kong and Taiwan

5

YTD increase in net profit due to higher revenues and lower provisioning

Gain on sale BoA is EUR 213 mln (revenues, operating and net profit)

Underlying revenue growth of 4.1% reflects diversity of business mix

Increase in operating expenses reflects investments in growth markets

Strong risk management skills has resulted in lower provisioning

Further strengthening of capital ratios

* At constant forex rates: **Excluding the proceeds of the sale of Bank of Asia (BoA)

Nine months

(EUR mln) 2004 2003%

change%

change*

Total revenue** 14,055 13,932 0.9 4.1

Operating expenses 9,502 9,252 2.7 5.7

Operating result** 4,553 4,680 (2.7) 0.9

Provisioning loan losses 456 951 (52.1) (50.5)

Net profit** 2,759 2,304 19.7 24.3

Efficiency ratio**

Tier 1 Ratio

67.6%

8.50%

66.4%

7.79%

2304

2759

213

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

YTD 03 YTD 04

Gain on sale of Bank of Asia

Net profit adjusted for gains on sale of Bank of Asia

19.7%

29.0%

6

YTD revenue growth, despite decline in BU NA

Despite significant one-off in 2003, revenues

BU NL show only modest decline. Adjusted for

one-off: + 2%

Strong performance BU Brazil due to

Sudameris acquisition and organic growth

Strong results BU NGM due to high growth

rates in Asia

WCS shows satisfactory results in difficult

market conditions

Group revenues are up 4.1% at constant

exchange rates

1%

19%

4%

-3%

-23%

23%

19%18%

25%

29%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

NL NA Br NGM Bw fds WCS PC AM Other AA

Revenues excl. gain on sale Bank of Asia

Change in revenues (Q3 YTD 04 vs Q3 YTD 03, %)

7

YTD revenue decline in BU NA entirely due to lower mortgage income Revenues US mortgages and total BU NA revenues excl. mortgages (in mln USD)

1160

404

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

YTD 03 YTD 04

Revenues US mortgages

-65%

28042941

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

YTD 03 YTD 04

Total BU NA revenues excl. mortgages

+5%

8

YTD increase in expenses due to investments in growth markets

Strong increase in expenses in BU Brazil (EUR

220 mln or 30%) largely due to integration

Sudameris

Increase in BU NGM (EUR 31 mln or 12%) due

to investments to fund future growth

Lower expenses BU NA and BU NL fund

increase in NGM and Brazil

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

NL NA Br NGM Bwfds WCS PC AM Other AA

Change in expenses (Q3 YTD 04 vs Q3 YTD 03, EUR mln)

9

Strong risk management skills have led to lower provisioning

*2004 YTD

Net provisioning as % average RWA

51 53 51

23

35

28

44

2824

52

66

29

55

20

40

60

80

100

19921993 199419951996 199719981999 200020012002 20032004

51 53 51

23

35

28

44

2824

52

66

29

55

20

40

60

80

100

1993 199419951996 199719981999 200020012002 20032004*

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

2000 2001 2002 2003ABN AMRO Market Performance

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

2000 2001 2002 2003ABN AMRO Market Performance**

Loan Loss provisions to Loans**

** Barclays, HSBC, Citi, BNP Paribas, Bank One, JP Morgan Chase, Deutsche

10

Further increase of Tier 1 ratios due to proceeds of sale of Bank of Asia

Sale of Bank of Asia (BoA) added 15bps to

Tier 1 and Core tier 1

Sale of LeasePlan Corporation (LPC) has been

completed on 4 November

Proceeds of sale of LPC will lead to a further

increase in the Tier 1 and Core Tier 1 ratio

We have used the proceeds of the sale of BoA

and LPC to neutralise the dilutive effect of the

interim stock dividend 2004. On 2 December

we announced the completion of the buyback

of shares related to the interim stock dividend

2004

4.47

4.92

5.91

6.28

7.03

7.48

8.158.50

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Sep 04

Core Tier 1 ratio (%) Tier 1 ratio (%)

11

2004 outlook

“We reiterate our net profit outlook for the full year to be at least 10%

higher than the previous year (excluding the impact of the sale of

Bank of Asia and LeasePlan Corporation), in spite of the lower

operating result now expected.”

Challenges & Opportunities in 2005

13

Challenges Opportunities

USD net profit hedge rate for 2005

lower than for 2004

2004 results include some incidental

items

Disappearance of LeasePlan and Bank

of Asia contribution

BU NA: growth in all divisions,

commercial banking in particular

BU NL: gradual profitability

improvement

BU Brazil: well positioned post

Sudameris

BU NGM: underlying market growth

WCS: further growth from a solid base

Private Clients growth depending on

market circumstances

Disciplined Capital Management

14

#3 Market Share in the greater Midwest

13th largest in the U.S. by assets

11th largest commercial loan portfolio nationally

14th largest deposit base in the Nation

8th largest mortgage servicer in the Nation

Before considering the effect of expected industry mergers.

Sources: SNL Securities, Mortgage Bankers Association, FDIC and American Banker

BU NA is well positioned for solid growth in all its divisions

USD 103 bn in assets

15

– Trusted and respected

– Relationship-focused

– Involved in the Community

Local, Hometown banks

Strong positions in Illinois and Michigan

LaSalle Bank N.A.

# 2 in Assets in Illinois

# 2 in Deposits in Illinois

Standard Federal Bank N.A.

# 2 in Assets in Michigan

# 3 in Deposits in Michigan

16

Opportunity: increase commercial banking revenues in BU NALoan commitments (USD) and utilisation rates (%)

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04

42%

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

56%

Total Loan Commitments (USD bn)

Net loans as % of total commitments

Commercial & industrial loans (C&I) and IP

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00

C&I loans Industrial Production

Oct 04

17

Customer Centric Strategy

BU NA’s new consumer strategy will lead to strong revenue growth

Customer Service

Provide superior service

across all channels

(branches, ATMs, call

center, Web, sales

forces)

Adapt to the local needs

of our marketplaces

Empower employees to

solve customer

problems

Sales

Acquire core deposit

accounts to develop long-

term customer

relationships

Sell products and

services to each

customer based on the

customer’s unique needs

Ensure products and

services are easy to

understand and sell

Operations

Abolish rules and

procedures that interfere

with delivering

exceptional service

Continually look for ways

to reduce errors, improve

response times and

anticipate customer

hassles

Efficiently use resources

to achieve customer

satisfaction

18

US mortgage business is expected to benefit from margin normalisation

US mortgage business expected to

improve in 2005:

Overcapacity in the industry has

resulted in a sharp reduction in margins

This overcapacity has been sustained

by mini-refinancing booms as interest

rates have remained low.

We expect a rationalisation of the

margin environment in 2005

29%

12%

7%

2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

YTD 03 YTD 04

BU NA mortgage revenues as % of BU NA revenuesBU NA mortgage revenues as % of Group revenues

19

We can grow revenues and increase returns by focussing on certain client segments:

Corporate Clients:Sustain market leadership position (>40% market share) by maintaining an advantaged service offer

SME Clients:Move from #2 to #1 in terms of market share of primary bank relationships for companies with over EUR 1 mln turnover by improved product offering

Mass Affluent Clients:Introduction of Preferred Banking, which improved service and product offering

Mass Retail Clients:Introduce charges for standard banking services and actively migrate clients to low cost channels.

Opportunity: BU NL is expected to show revenue growth

20

BU NL efficiency ratio expected to improve further to low 70’s in 3 years

Efficiency ratio BU NL*

* Q1 03 is adjusted for sale of insurance business to DL, Q2 03 is adjusted for share loss in Interpay and release of accrued provisioning, Q4 03 for the unwinding of the security vehicle and EUR 23 mln restructuring costs, and Q3 04 is adjusted for release of a cost provision (16 mln)

86.7

92.4

84.0 84.5

81.5

84.8 84.7

77.9

83.6

78.9 79.5 80.1

77.2 77.075.7

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

Q1 01 Q3 01 Q1 02 Q3 02 Q1 03 Q3 03 Q1 04 Q3 04

21

The efficiency ratio of the Group’s operations in the Netherlands is lower than that of BU NL

* Geography the Netherlands includes Dutch activities in SBU C&CC, SBU WCS, BU PC, BU AM, BU CC, Bouwfonds

77.6

72.3

68.265.8

86.9

82.2

75.3 76.0

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

2001 2002 2003 2004

Geography The Netherlands BU NL

22

Opportunity: Brazil is well positioned for organic growth after Sudameris integration

Exposure to the South East, Brazil’s most dynamic region

Market leader in car finance

Above average penetration of the mass affluent client base

The catalyst for value creation : economic growth fostered by structural reforms and sustainable low interest rates leading to retail and commercial loan growth

Following the Sudameris acquisition, ABN AMRO is the 4th largest privately owned bank in Brazil with attractive characteristics

23

BU Brazil shows strong loan growth in retail and commercial banking

Growth of segments of the portfolio (BRL mln)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Commercial Banking Aymore Retail

Q3 03 Q2 04 Q3 04

24

Since the acquisition of Banco Real the client base increased by more than 50%

5.66.2

6.8 7.1

8.38.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Aug-04

Clients (mln)

Includes Sudameris as of October 2003 (approx. 700,000 clients)

25

Opportunity NGM: continuing strong growth in NGM Asia

Breakdown of revenues YTD 2004 (EUR mln)

6063 65 67

8387

91

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04

Revenues NGM Asia

NGM Other36%

NGM Asia64%

NGM Asia includes Greater China, India and EGMNGM Other includes Saudi Hollandi Bank, ID&JG, NBM

Revenue development NGM Asia (EUR mln)

26

Attractive Characteristics of Greater China and India

Greater China and India represent a large, fast growing and profitable opportunity in Asia for ABN AMRO

Rapid growth of Personal Financial Services Revenues coupled with weak incumbent competitive offerings, customers willingness to switch providers and easing of regulations for foreign players

ABN AMRO Focus on Greater China and India:

Target (Mass) Affluent Customers with:

1. Van Gogh Preferred Banking Offering

2. Credit Card Offering

3. Consumer Credit Offering - Primarily India

27

WCS can grow from a good base

83% of total WCS revenues is client related

WCS is an important source of product knowledge for C&CC

A stable business mix

New initiatives are drivers for future growth (WoCa)

– further insourcing

– further efficiency improvements

529623

708

-152

224

542

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

YTD 02 YTD 03 YTD 04

Operating result Net profit

28

BU Private Clients continues to build up its on-shore network

ABN AMRO Private Clients ranks among the world’s top 10, with EUR 114 bn assets under administration (AuA)

In The Netherlands, we are the clear market leader

In France, we are a leading private bank, well positioned after restructuring completed in 2003

In Germany, we are building a leading position via the integration of Delbrück Bethmann Maffei into ABN AMRO Private Banking

Further acquisitions in Europe to build up onshore Private Banking Network.

29

Disciplined capital management (1)

Excess capital is a new experience for ABN AMRO

The Managing Board considers that its main task on behalf of ABN AMRO’s shareholders is long term value creation by investing capital in attractive growth opportunities

In accordance with our capital discipline and with the capital ratio targets, we will give capital back to our shareholders, if no value creating opportunities can be found

Share buy-backs are now an option

30

Disciplined capital management (2)

Europe is unlikely to see significant cross border activity in the short-term

No further acquisitions in Brazil as we are well positioned for growth after the Sudameris acquisition

In Asia, acquisitions in India and Greater China could accelerate the already rapid organic growth

Longer-term, regional consolidation may require us to expand our US franchise

Cost and revenue synergies

32

GSS - vehicle for delivering cross-SBU operational synergy opportunities

Restructuring programmes to date concentrated within (S)BUs, focus is now on broader agenda of cross-(S)BU synergies

Group COO, GSS and Group Business Team (GBT) established Jan 2004 to realise (S)BU synergies

Real opportunity to deliver step-change in performance across Services cost base of ~EUR 5bln

Benchmarking against top-quartile banks revealed significant potential to take out costs

Current estimates point to at least EUR 500 mln annual savings from 2007 onward

33

Synergies between C&CC and other BU’s to further increase

C&CC and WCS

WCS product expertise is used to create innovative products for commercial clients

C&CC and Private Clients

Improved co-ordination makes it possible to manufacture innovative private banking products

C&CC and Asset Management

Asset Management products are streamlined to closely fit the C&CC clients needs

WCS and Asset Management

Co-operate to leverage the WCS client base for Asset Management products

Concluding Remarks

35

Sustainable, disciplined growth

Summary

Solid track record established

2004 net profit growth >10%

2005 opportunities can outweigh challenges

Long-term profitable growth options, especially outside Europe

Group synergies from network

MfV capital allocation culture well embedded