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Transcript of Aberdeen
Aberdeen World Growth and Income Fund
NMA Conference and Awards
13 – 14 January 2011
For Professional Use OnlyNot for public distribution
Bruce Stout, Senior Investment Manager
2
Agenda
• About Aberdeen
- Investment team
- Investment process
• Growth and income in a global context
• Aberdeen World Growth and Income Fund
3
About Aberdeen Asset Management
• An independent asset management group
• Origins in Scotland
• Still run today by its founders
• AuM has grown to £178.7bn since inception in 1983
• 1,829 staff including over 500 investment professionals
• Geographically diverse – 31 offices in 24 countries
• Working with clients across Institutional, Wholesale and Charity sectors
Asset Management is all that we do
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 30 Sep 10
Group AuM
Property12.1%
Fixed Income 25.3%
Equities40.3%
Money Market6.0%
Alternative Investment Strategies
16.3%
4
Global equity team
Team members Title Years in industry Years with firm
Stephen Docherty Head of Global Equities 17 15
Bruce Stout Senior Investment Manager 23 9
Andrew McMenigall Senior Investment Manager 22 6
Stewart Methven Senior Investment Manager 22 6
Jamie Cumming Senior Investment Manager 8 6
Samantha Fitzpatrick Senior Investment Manager 12 9
Martin Connaghan Investment Manager 11 9
Ella-Kara Brown Assistant Investment Manager 6 4
Ann Dewar Senior Portfolio Analyst 20 9
Cindy Rose Head of SRI Research 10 9
Jill Sneddon Global Trading Co-Ordinator 10 7
Jamie Govan SRI Analyst 3 3
Fionna Ross SRI Analyst 2 2
Gail McCullie SRI Researcher <1 <1
• Stable team with collective responsibility for investment decisions
• A mix of youth and experience
• Team members are all generalists
• Global equity team utilises proprietary research produced by regional teamsSource: Aberdeen Asset Management, 31 Oct 10
5
Key points of differentiation
• We are bottom-up stock pickers
• We rely on our own research
• We maintain high conviction portfolios of 40-60 stocks
• We don’t own companies we don’t like, regardless of benchmark weight
• Typical average stock position c2%
• We use a buy-and-hold approach with low turnover; we are true company stakeholders
• We build diversified portfolios of companies
• We employ a team approach, consensual decision-making, but senior managers have final say
• We control risk at the stock level through rigorous process, discipline and filters
6
Global
Equity
Buy List
C330 stocks
Re
gio
na
l de
sk in
tera
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Regional teams(Pan Europe, Asia Pacific ex Japan, North America, Japan, Emerging Markets)
Same process = Common language = Ability to exchange thoughts across regions
Step 1
Global equity process
Comparativeanalysis
Global team
Model portfolioc50 stocks
Monitor
Risk checks
Step 3Step 2
Watchlist/review
c280 stocks
7
Step 1: Regional teams
Quality
Pass or fail?
Potential revisit
Portfolio construction
Monitor
Company visit note
Watchlist/ review
Aberdeen universe
Price
Cheap or expensive?
• Model is default
• Filter for mandate
• Refine weightings
• Compliance
checks
Total universeofstocks
• Desk research: Pre-screen of candidate companies
• No quantitative filters
• Many stocks eliminated over time or self-excluding due to size/structure
Risk controls
8
Step 2: Comparative analysis – Global team
• Stocks on global equity buy-list have passed regional quality and valuation screens
• Stocks with market cap < US$1bn are excluded from buy-list
• Global team makes comparisons across regions/sectors
• Global team focuses on the valuation differentials, where pricing anomalies are identified from a global perspective
• Unique companies are identified to help construct a diversified portfolio of businesses
We aim for a diversified portfolio, not driven by backward looking index composition
9
Comparative analysis example – energy sector
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management and all numerical data from Bloomberg, Nov 10Companies marked in bold are held in the global equity portfolios. Model research example used for illustrative purposes only
Company Region P/E09 P/E10 P/E11 P/B Dividend yield
Dividend growth (5yr) (%)
Exxon Mobil USA 18.5x 12.3x 11.3x 2.5x 2.4% 8.8%
Apache Corporation USA 19.9x 12.0x 10.3x 2.0x 0.5% 12.0%
EOG Resources USA 31.2x 83.1x 30.7x 2.4x 0.6% 32.4%
Hess Corporation USA 37.5x 14.4x 13.0x 1.5x 0.6% 0.0%
Total Europe ex UK 11.3x 8.5x 8.0x 1.7x 8.7% 20.4%
ENI Europe ex UK 11.4x 8.7x 7.8x 1.3x 6.2% -5.8%
Royal Dutch Shell UK 14.4x 10.4x 8.6x 1.4x 5.3% 4.8%
BP UK 9.3x 6.6x 6.4x 1.3x 1.9% -14.6%
PetroChina Asia 14.8x 12.1x 11.1x 1.9x 3.2% 2.7%
Petrobras Latin America 8.2x 8.5x 8.7x 1.7x 3.7% 16.5%
Lukoil EMEA 6.6x 5.8x 5.5x 4.4x 3.0% 11.5%
OMV Europe ex UK 10.9x 7.5x 6.1x 1.0x 3.7% 17.8%
PTT Exploration Asia 23.0x 15.5x 13.6x 4.2x 2.0% 5.3%
BG Group UK 18.7x 17.0x 15.9x 3.2x 1.0% 26.8%
10
Focus on enhancing value over long term
• Being right in long term matters more than buying early
• Buying is only the beginning, not end, of company research
• Top-slicing/adding on weakness is main source of turnover
• Actual company name turnover is kept low
We are owners of companies rather than buyers of stocks; we spread risk not by buying more stocks but by constructing a portfolio that invests in many different
businesses
11
FTSE All-Share Index Dividend Rate 12 month percentage change 1985 - 2009
Income challenges for the UK investor
• UK dividends remain under pressure as the shape of contribution changes
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Percent change
Dec
86
Dec
88
Dec
90
Dec
92
Dec
94
Dec
96
Dec
98
Dec
00
Dec
02
Dec
04
Dec
06
Dec
08
Source: FT; Aberdeen Asset Management
12
Concentration of dividends within the UK market
Source: Morgan Stanley, Factset Mar 10
Stock % of total market dividend
Cumulative contribution to market dividend
Consensus dividend growth 2010(%)
BP 12.3 12.3 -5
Royal Dutch Shell 12.1 24.4 -3
Vodafone Group 7.4 31.8 3
HSBC Holdings 6.4 38.2 -1
GlaxoSmithKline 5.6 43.7 8
BHP Billiton 5.3 49.1 -5
AstraZeneca 3.8 52.8 4
British American Tobacco 3.3 56.1 8
Tesco 1.8 57.9 10
National Grid 1.6 59.9 8
13
Ingredients for income growth
• Same investment process which leads to the construction of the global equity model
• Universe expanded via the inclusion of stocks held within regional income portfolios
• Extended global buy list is screened for those companies with balance sheet strength, robustness of underlying cash flow a willingness to act in a shareholder friendly fashion and consequently the scope to deliver dividend growth
• Target a portfolio yield of 4.0%
• Quest for income orientated opportunities in a truly global capacity
14
Dividend growth from an international portfolio
Source: Bloomberg, Nov 10
StockYield
%Hist 5 year div growth
%Country
Zurich Financial Services 6.8 34 Switzerland
QBE 7.6 15 Australia
Takeda Pharmaceutical 4.6 13 Japan
Kimberly Clark de Mexico 4.1 9 Mexico
Taiwan Semiconductor 4.6 10 Taiwan
Telus 4.1 19 Canada
E.ON 6.6 13 Germany
Singapore Telecom 4.6 13 Singapore
Souza Cruz 4.6 14 Brazil
Novartis 3.8 15 Switzerland
15
Murray International v. Aberdeen World Growth and Income
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management 30 Sep 10
Murray International Aberdeen World Growth and Income
Number of Stocks 60 39
Fixed Income? c10% now Up to 10%
Leverage c10% now No
Yield c3.2% c4.0%
Premium / Discount c6% NAV
• Managed by the same team
• Uses the same investment approach
• All WGI stocks are held in MINT
• WGI could invest up to 10% in Fixed Income securities…but holds zero at present
16
Country/Region 30 Nov 10 (%) MSCI World (%) Accounts relative position (%)
Europe ex UK 30.7 18.9 +11.8
Asia Pacific ex Japan 22.8 6.1 +16.7
United Kingdom 15.9 9.7 +6.2
Latin America 11.7 0.4 +11.3
Japan 6.9 10.0 -3.1
North America 9.8 54.9 -45.1
Cash 2.2 - +2.2
Total 100.0 100.0
Aberdeen World Growth and Income
• Portfolio is diversified from a country/regional perspective, however benchmark has considerable exposure to the USA and no exposure to the emerging markets
Relative country positions
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, BPSS, Datastream. 30 Nov 10
17
Sector 30 Nov 10 (%) MSCI World (%) Accounts relative position (%)
Energy 16.9 10.6 +6.3
Financials 16.6 19.7 -3.1
Information Technology 5.7 11.9 -6.2
Industrials 1.0 11.2 -10.2
Healthcare 12.3 9.5 +2.8
Utilities 7.5 4.1 +3.4
Consumer Staples 18.5 10.1 +8.4
Telecommunication Services 17.4 4.3 +13.1
Materials 1.9 8.0 -6.1
Consumer Discretionary 0.0 10.6 -10.6
Cash 2.2 - +2.2
Total 100.0 100.0
Aberdeen World Growth and Income
• Portfolio is diversified from a sector perspective
• If we can’t find value we will have zero exposure to a sector
Relative sector positions
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, BPSS, Datastream. 30 Nov 10
18
• A high conviction portfolio of stocks
• Various businesses spread across sectors and countries from around the world
Aberdeen World Growth and IncomeTop 20 portfolio holdings by market value
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management. 30 Nov 10
Name Country % Name Country %
1 QBE Insurance Australia 3.6 11 Nordea Bank Sweden 3.0
2 Singapore Telecoms Singapore 3.6 12 Taiwan Mobile Taiwan 3.0
3 Zurich Financial Services Switzerland 3.5 13 Johnson & Johnson USA 3.0
4 Vodafone Group UK 3.5 14 Philip Morris USA 3.0
5 Tenaris Italy 3.3 15 Standard Chartered UK 2.9
6 Taiwan Semiconductor Taiwan 3.3 16 Takeda Pharmaceutical Japan 2.6
7 Roche Holdings Switzerland 3.0 17 Souza Cruz Brazil 2.5
8 British American Tobacco UK 3.0 18 Canon Japan 2.5
9 Royal Dutch Shell UK 3.0 19 Kimberley-Clark de Mexico Mexico 2.5
10 ENI Italy 3.0 20 Petrochina China 2.1
Cumulative (%) 59.9
19
Summary
Equities
• Robust investment process
- Consistent across all desks
Regional teams
• Conduct initial due diligence and filtering on stocks for Global equity buy list
• Always meet and interview a company before investing
• Provide company research and ongoing due diligence
Global Equities
• Pick stocks from a concentrated universe of what we believe are ‘best’ ideas from regional teams (Global equity buy list)
• Take advantage of the benefits and opportunities of a flexible universe
• Genuine team effort across all desks
• Concentrated portfolios – we back our judgements
Appendix
21
Quality
• Business prospects/strategyEvidence of industry growth, clear strategy and execution
• Management Motivation, experience and track record: do we trust individuals in charge?
• Financials Strong balance sheet, transparent
• TransparencyClean company structure, visible earnings, annual report
• Commitment to shareholder valueCompany is run for shareholders, not managers or controlling interests
What can you expect to find in our chosen stocks?
Prefer straightforward companies with clear-sighted management
22
Price
• Valuation: Use standard metrics, via P/E ratios, price/cashflow, NAV, dividend yield
• Different criteria depending on sector/industry
• Cross-border and industry comparisons
• Simple forward modelling of each investment using our own forecasts
• Conservative approach, focusing on downside
• Are risks in price? We avoid overpaying
• Relative value as important as absolute given limited number of portfolio names
Risk control AND relative value
Holistic approach – We identify where the value is and which stocks will work for us
23
Global equity team
Martin Connaghan, Investment Manager
Stephen Docherty, Head of Global Equities
Bruce Stout, Senior Investment Manager
Andrew McMenigall, Senior Investment Manager
Stewart Methven, Senior Investment Manager
Jamie Cumming, Senior Investment Manager
Samantha Fitzpatrick, Senior Investment Manager
Ella-Kara Brown, Assistant Investment Manager
Ann Dewar, Senior Portfolio Analyst
Jill Sneddon, Global Trading Coordinator
24
For professional use onlyNot for public distribution
• Investors should be aware that past performance is not a guide to future returns, the value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than the amount invested
• The views expressed in this presentation should not be construed as advice on how to construct a portfolio or whether to buy, retain or sell a particular investment. The information contained in the presentation is for exclusive use by professional customers/eligible counterparties (ECPs) and not the general public. The information is being given only to those persons who have received this document directly from Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) and must not be acted or relied upon by persons receiving a copy of this document other than directly from AAM. No part of this document may be copied or duplicated in any form or by any means or redistributed without the written consent of AAM
• Issued and approved by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom