AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Figures in Millions except per share values Company Overview Valuation Current Price 460.16 $ Margin of Safety NCAV 3.84 $ Total Net Reprod. Cost 123.39 $ Earnings Power Value (EPV) 442.94 $ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 460.06 $ Katsenelson Absolute PE 469.98 $ Ben Graham Formula 461.28 $ Key Statistics Company Stats Mkt Cap ($M) 432,117.85 $ Shares Outstanding 939.1 52 Wk High 705.07 $ Shares Float 938.8 52 Wk Low 435.00 $ Insider Ownership 0.03% % off 52Wk Low 5.8% Insider Transactions 3.7% Institutional Ownersh 64.1% Cash Flows Float Short 2.0% Free Cash Flow Short Ratio 0.9 5 yr FCF Growth 54.3% Piotroski (TTM) 5 10 yr FCF Growth 69.2% Altman (MRQ) 5.3 Fundamental Ratios 2011 2012 TTM Beneish (TTM) -2.8 P/E 13.17 14.63 10.43 Effectiveness P/E (cash adjusted) 12.16 13.93 9.48 CROIC Margins & Profitability EV/EBITDA 8.86 9.94 6.68 Avg 64.3% Gross EV/Free Cash Flow 10.49 14.03 8.55 FCF/S Gross Margin 41.9% P/S 3.15 3.90 2.65 Avg 25.3% Operating P/BV 4.46 5.17 3.42 ROA Operating Margin 33.5% P/Tang BV 4.67 5.36 3.55 Avg 18.0% Net Profit P/CF 10.46 12.01 8.38 ROE Net Margin 25.4% P/FCF 11.35 14.73 9.41 Avg 27.7% ROE 33.8% 35.3% 32.8% Financial Strength (MRQ) ROA 22.3% 23.7% 21.3% Efficiency Current Ratio(MRQ) 1.5 ROIC 41.0% 38.1% 37.6% Receivables Turnover (TTM) 8.2 Quick Ratio(MRQ) 1.5 CROIC 48.2% 38.2% 42.3% Inventory Turnover (TTM) 65.8 LTD/Eq(MRQ) 0.0 Current Ratio 1.61 1.50 1.54 Days Sales Outstanding (TTM) 47.7 Tot D/Eq(MRQ) 0.0 Total Debt/Equity Ratio 0.52 0.49 0.54 Inventory Turnover 70.53 112.12 65.75 Apple Inc., together with subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computing products, and portable digital music players worldwide. Its products and services include iPhone, a handheld product that combines a mobile phone, an iPod, and an Internet communications device; iPad, a multi-purpose mobile device; desktop computers, such as iMac, Mac Pro, and Mac mini; portable computers, including MacBook Pro and MacBook Air; a line of iPod portable digital music and media players; and iCloud, a cloud service. The company also offers a range of software products, including iOS and OS X operating system software; server software; iLife and iWork application software; and other application software consisting of Final Cut Pro, Logic Studio, Logic Pro, and its FileMaker Pro database software. It also manufactures the Apple LED Cinema Display and Thunderbolt Display; sells a variety of Apple-branded and third-party Mac-compatible and iOS-compatible peripheral products, including printers, storage devices, computer memory, digital video and still cameras, and various other computing products and supplies; and Apple TV, a device February 18, 2013 Selected Financial Statements 0 1 2 3 4 5 Low Risk High Growth Under Valued Well Managed Good Financials Strong Moat -100.0% -100.0% -3.9% 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% $0.00 $100.00 $200.00 $300.00 $400.00 $500.00 $600.00 $700.00 $800.00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Price vs Intrinsic Value Stock Price Intrinsic Value Buy Price (In Millions, Except per Share Amounts) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM/Latest Revenue 32,479 $ 42,905 $ 65,225 $ 108,249 $ 156,508 $ 164,687 $ Gross Profit 11,145 $ 17,222 $ 25,684 $ 43,818 $ 68,662 $ 69,019 $ Margin % 34.31% 40.14% 39.38% 40.48% 43.87% 41.91% R&D 1,109 $ 1,333 $ 1,782 $ 2,429 $ 3,381 $ 3,633 $ Margin % 3.41% 3.11% 2.73% 2.24% 2.16% 2.21% Operating Income 6,275 $ 11,740 $ 18,385 $ 33,790 $ 55,241 $ 55,111 $ Margin % 19.32% 27.36% 28.19% 31.22% 35.30% 33.46% Net Income 4,834 $ 8,235 $ 14,013 $ 25,922 $ 41,733 $ 41,747 $ Margin % 14.88% 19.19% 21.48% 23.95% 26.67% 25.35% Earnings Per Share Basic 5.48 $ 9.22 $ 15.41 $ 28.05 $ 44.64 $ 44.55 $ Diluted 5.36 $ 9.08 $ 15.15 $ 27.68 $ 44.15 $ 44.10 $ Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding 902.14 907.01 924.71 936.65 945.36 947.22 Dividends Per Share - $ - $ - $ - $ 2.63 $ 5.26 $ Dividend Yield 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 1.14% Net Cash From Operating Activities 9,596 $ 10,159 $ 18,595 $ 37,529 $ 50,856 $ 56,728 $ (Dollars in Millions) Net Property, Plants & Equipment 2,455 $ 2,954 $ 4,768 $ 7,777 $ 15,452 $ 15,422 $ Total Assets 39,572 $ 47,501 $ 75,183 $ 116,371 $ 176,064 $ 196,088 $ Long-term Debt 4,450 $ 4,355 $ 6,670 $ 11,786 $ 19,312 $ 21,863 $ Stockholders' Equity 21,030 $ 31,640 $ 47,791 $ 76,615 $ 118,210 $ 127,346 $

description

http://www.oldschoolvalue.comReverse valuation on AAPL with the Old School Value program.

Transcript of AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Page 1: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc.(AAPL)

Figures in Millions except per share values

Company Overview

ValuationCurrent Price 460.16$ Margin of SafetyNCAV 3.84$

Total Net Reprod. Cost 123.39$

Earnings Power Value (EPV) 442.94$

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 460.06$

Katsenelson Absolute PE 469.98$

Ben Graham Formula 461.28$

Key Statistics Company StatsMkt Cap ($M) 432,117.85$ Shares Outstanding 939.1

52 Wk High 705.07$ Shares Float 938.8

52 Wk Low 435.00$ Insider Ownership 0.03%

% off 52Wk Low 5.8% Insider Transactions 3.7%

Institutional Ownership 64.1%

Cash Flows Float Short 2.0%

Free Cash Flow Short Ratio 0.9

5 yr FCF Growth 54.3% Piotroski (TTM) 5

10 yr FCF Growth 69.2% Altman (MRQ) 5.3 Fundamental Ratios 2011 2012 TTM

Beneish (TTM) -2.8 P/E 13.17 14.63 10.43

Effectiveness P/E (cash adjusted) 12.16 13.93 9.48

CROIC Margins & Profitability EV/EBITDA 8.86 9.94 6.68

Avg 64.3% Gross EV/Free Cash Flow 10.49 14.03 8.55

FCF/S Gross Margin 41.9% P/S 3.15 3.90 2.65

Avg 25.3% Operating P/BV 4.46 5.17 3.42

ROA Operating Margin 33.5% P/Tang BV 4.67 5.36 3.55

Avg 18.0% Net Profit P/CF 10.46 12.01 8.38

ROE Net Margin 25.4% P/FCF 11.35 14.73 9.41

Avg 27.7% ROE 33.8% 35.3% 32.8%

Financial Strength (MRQ) ROA 22.3% 23.7% 21.3%

Efficiency Current Ratio(MRQ) 1.5 ROIC 41.0% 38.1% 37.6%

Receivables Turnover (TTM) 8.2 Quick Ratio(MRQ) 1.5 CROIC 48.2% 38.2% 42.3%

Inventory Turnover (TTM) 65.8 LTD/Eq(MRQ) 0.0 Current Ratio 1.61 1.50 1.54

Days Sales Outstanding (TTM) 47.7 Tot D/Eq(MRQ) 0.0 Total Debt/Equity Ratio 0.52 0.49 0.54

Inventory Turnover 70.53 112.12 65.75

Apple Inc., together with subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets mobile

communication and media devices, personal computing products, and portable digital

music players worldwide. Its products and services include iPhone, a handheld product

that combines a mobile phone, an iPod, and an Internet communications device; iPad, a

multi-purpose mobile device; desktop computers, such as iMac, Mac Pro, and Mac mini;

portable computers, including MacBook Pro and MacBook Air; a line of iPod portable

digital music and media players; and iCloud, a cloud service. The company also offers a

range of software products, including iOS and OS X operating system software; server

software; iLife and iWork application software; and other application software consisting

of Final Cut Pro, Logic Studio, Logic Pro, and its FileMaker Pro database software. It

also manufactures the Apple LED Cinema Display and Thunderbolt Display; sells a

variety of Apple-branded and third-party Mac-compatible and iOS-compatible peripheral

products, including printers, storage devices, computer memory, digital video and still

cameras, and various other computing products and supplies; and Apple TV, a device

February 18, 2013

Selected Financial Statements

012345

Low Risk

High Growth

Under Valued

Well Managed

Good Financials

Strong Moat

-100.0%

-100.0%

-3.9%

0.0%

2.1%

0.2%

$0.00

$100.00

$200.00

$300.00

$400.00

$500.00

$600.00

$700.00

$800.00

Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12

Price vs Intrinsic Value

Stock Price Intrinsic Value Buy Price

(In Millions, Except per Share Amounts) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM/Latest

Revenue 32,479$ 42,905$ 65,225$ 108,249$ 156,508$ 164,687$

Gross Profit 11,145$ 17,222$ 25,684$ 43,818$ 68,662$ 69,019$

Margin % 34.31% 40.14% 39.38% 40.48% 43.87% 41.91%

R&D 1,109$ 1,333$ 1,782$ 2,429$ 3,381$ 3,633$

Margin % 3.41% 3.11% 2.73% 2.24% 2.16% 2.21%

Operating Income 6,275$ 11,740$ 18,385$ 33,790$ 55,241$ 55,111$

Margin % 19.32% 27.36% 28.19% 31.22% 35.30% 33.46%

Net Income 4,834$ 8,235$ 14,013$ 25,922$ 41,733$ 41,747$

Margin % 14.88% 19.19% 21.48% 23.95% 26.67% 25.35%

Earnings Per Share

Basic 5.48$ 9.22$ 15.41$ 28.05$ 44.64$ 44.55$

Diluted 5.36$ 9.08$ 15.15$ 27.68$ 44.15$ 44.10$

Weighted Average Diluted Shares

Outstanding 902.14 907.01 924.71 936.65 945.36 947.22

Dividends Per Share -$ -$ -$ -$ 2.63$ 5.26$

Dividend Yield 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 1.14%

Net Cash From Operating Activities 9,596$ 10,159$ 18,595$ 37,529$ 50,856$ 56,728$

(Dollars in Millions)

Net Property, Plants & Equipment 2,455$ 2,954$ 4,768$ 7,777$ 15,452$ 15,422$

Total Assets 39,572$ 47,501$ 75,183$ 116,371$ 176,064$ 196,088$

Long-term Debt 4,450$ 4,355$ 6,670$ 11,786$ 19,312$ 21,863$

Stockholders' Equity 21,030$ 31,640$ 47,791$ 76,615$ 118,210$ 127,346$

Page 2: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc.

(AAPL) Figures in Millions except per share values

1000000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 TTM Next Year Est

Income Statement 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 3 3 2 1 0Revenue 6,207.0$ 8,279.0$ 13,931.0$ 19,315.0$ 24,006.0$ 32,479.0$ 42,905.0$ 65,225.0$ 108,249.0$ 156,508.0$ 46,333.0$ 39,186.0$ 35,023.0$ 35,966.0$ 54,512.0$ 164,687.0$

% change from prev year 33.4% 68.3% 38.6% 24.3% 35.3% 32.1% 52.0% 66.0% 44.6% -15.4% -10.6% 2.7% 51.6% 5.2%

Cost of Revenues 4,499.0$ 6,020.0$ 9,888.0$ 13,717.0$ 15,852.0$ 21,334.0$ 25,683.0$ 39,541.0$ 64,431.0$ 87,846.0$ 25,630.0$ 20,622.0$ 20,029.0$ 21,565.0$ 33,452.0$ 95,668.0$

COGS (%) 72.5% 72.7% 71.0% 71.0% 66.0% 65.7% 59.9% 60.6% 59.5% 56.1% 55.3% 52.6% 57.2% 60.0% 61.4% 58.1%

Gross Profit 1,708.0$ 2,259.0$ 4,043.0$ 5,598.0$ 8,154.0$ 11,145.0$ 17,222.0$ 25,684.0$ 43,818.0$ 68,662.0$ 20,703.0$ 18,564.0$ 14,994.0$ 14,401.0$ 21,060.0$ 69,019.0$

Gross Income (%) 27.5% 27.3% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0% 34.3% 40.1% 39.4% 40.5% 43.9% 44.7% 47.4% 42.8% 40.0% 38.6% 41.9%

Operating Expenses

Selling, General & Admin. Expenses 1,212.0$ 1,421.0$ 1,859.0$ 2,433.0$ 2,963.0$ 3,761.0$ 4,149.0$ 5,517.0$ 7,599.0$ 10,040.0$ 2,605.0$ 2,339.0$ 2,545.0$ 2,551.0$ 2,840.0$ 10,275.0$

SG&A (%) 19.5% 17.2% 13.3% 12.6% 12.3% 11.6% 9.7% 8.5% 7.0% 6.4% 5.6% 6.0% 7.3% 7.1% 5.2% 6.2%

Research & Development 471.0$ 489.0$ 534.0$ 712.0$ 782.0$ 1,109.0$ 1,333.0$ 1,782.0$ 2,429.0$ 3,381.0$ 758.0$ 841.0$ 876.0$ 906.0$ 1,010.0$ 3,633.0$

R&D (%) 7.6% 5.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 1.9% 2.2%

EBITDA 113.0$ 476.0$ 1,829.0$ 2,678.0$ 4,726.0$ 6,748.0$ 12,474.0$ 19,412.0$ 35,604.0$ 58,518.0$ 18,061.0$ 16,124.0$ 12,408.0$ 11,925.0$ 18,798.0$ 59,255.0$

EBITDA (%) 1.8% 5.7% 13.1% 13.9% 19.7% 20.8% 29.1% 29.8% 32.9% 37.4% 39.0% 41.1% 35.4% 33.2% 34.5% 36.0%

Other Special Charges -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Depreciation & Amortization 113.0$ 150.0$ 179.0$ 225.0$ 317.0$ 473.0$ 734.0$ 1,027.0$ 1,814.0$ 3,277.0$ 721.0$ 740.0$ 835.0$ 981.0$ 1,588.0$ 4,144.0$

D&A (%) 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 1.6% 1.9% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.5%

Operating Income 25.0$ 349.0$ 1,650.0$ 2,453.0$ 4,409.0$ 6,275.0$ 11,740.0$ 18,385.0$ 33,790.0$ 55,241.0$ 17,340.0$ 15,384.0$ 11,573.0$ 10,944.0$ 17,210.0$ 55,111.0$

Operating Income (%) 0.4% 4.2% 11.8% 12.7% 18.4% 19.3% 27.4% 28.2% 31.2% 35.3% 37.4% 39.3% 33.0% 30.4% 31.6% 33.5%

Other Income and ExpenseEBIT 92.0$ 383.0$ 1,815.0$ 2,818.0$ 5,008.0$ 6,895.0$ 12,066.0$ 18,540.0$ 34,205.0$ 55,763.0$ 17,477.0$ 15,532.0$ 11,861.0$ 10,893.0$ 17,672.0$ 55,958.0$

Interest Expense -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Interest Income 83.0$ 53.0$ 183.0$ 394.0$ 647.0$ -$ 407.0$ 311.0$ 519.0$ 1,088.0$ -$ -$ -$ 1,088.0$ 421.0$ 1,509.0$

Other Income 10.0$ 4.0$ (18.0)$ (29.0)$ (48.0)$ 620.0$ (81.0)$ (156.0)$ (104.0)$ (566.0)$ 137.0$ 148.0$ 288.0$ (1,139.0)$ 41.0$ (662.0)$

Total Other Income 93.0$ 57.0$ 165.0$ 365.0$ 599.0$ 620.0$ 326.0$ 155.0$ 415.0$ 522.0$ 137.0$ 148.0$ 288.0$ (51.0)$ 462.0$ 847.0$

Income Before Taxes (EBT) 92.0$ 383.0$ 1,815.0$ 2,818.0$ 5,008.0$ 6,895.0$ 12,066.0$ 18,540.0$ 34,205.0$ 55,763.0$ 17,477.0$ 15,532.0$ 11,861.0$ 10,893.0$ 17,672.0$ 55,958.0$

Income Taxes/(Credit) 24.0$ 107.0$ 480.0$ 829.0$ 1,512.0$ 2,061.0$ 3,831.0$ 4,527.0$ 8,283.0$ 14,030.0$ 4,413.0$ 3,910.0$ 3,037.0$ 2,670.0$ 4,594.0$ 14,211.0$

Tax Rate % 26.1% 27.9% 26.4% 29.4% 30.2% 29.9% 31.8% 24.4% 24.2% 25.2% 25.3% 25.2% 25.6% 24.5% 26.0% 25.4%

Earnings After Taxes 68.0$ 276.0$ 1,335.0$ 1,989.0$ 3,496.0$ 4,834.0$ 8,235.0$ 14,013.0$ 25,922.0$ 41,733.0$ 13,064.0$ 11,622.0$ 8,824.0$ 8,223.0$ 13,078.0$ 41,747.0$

Minority Interest Expense -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Net Income From Continuing Operations 68.0$ 276.0$ 1,335.0$ 1,989.0$ 3,496.0$ 4,834.0$ 8,235.0$ 14,013.0$ 25,922.0$ 41,733.0$ 13,064.0$ 11,622.0$ 8,824.0$ 8,223.0$ 13,078.0$ 41,747.0$

Net Income From Discontinued Operations -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Net Income From Total Operations 69.0$ 276.0$ 1,335.0$ 1,989.0$ 3,496.0$ 4,834.0$ 8,235.0$ 14,013.0$ 25,922.0$ 41,733.0$ 13,064.0$ 11,622.0$ 8,824.0$ 8,223.0$ 13,078.0$ 41,747.0$

Net Income (%) 1.1% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 14.9% 19.2% 21.5% 23.9% 26.7% 28.2% 29.7% 25.2% 22.9% 24.0% 25.3%

Shares and EPS

Total Basic EPS 0.10$ 0.37$ 1.65$ 2.36$ 4.04$ 5.48$ 9.22$ 15.41$ 28.05$ 44.64$ 14.03$ 12.45$ 9.42$ 8.75$ 13.93$ 44.55$

Fully Diluted EPS 0.10$ 0.36$ 1.56$ 2.27$ 3.93$ 5.36$ 9.08$ 15.15$ 27.68$ 44.15$ 13.87$ 12.30$ 9.32$ 8.67$ 13.81$ 44.10$

Dividends Paid Per Share -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 2.65$ -$ -$ -$ 2.65$ 2.65$ 5.30$

Basic Shares Outstanding 721.3 743.2 808.4 844.1 864.6 881.6 893.0 909.5 924.3 934.8 931.0 933.6 936.6 934.8 938.9 939.1

Diluted Shares Outstanding 726.9 774.6 856.8 877.5 889.3 902.1 907.0 924.7 936.6 945.4 941.6 944.9 947.1 945.4 947.2 947.2

User Defined Shares Outstanding

Balance Sheet MRQAssets

Cash and Equiv 3,396.0$ 2,969.0$ 3,491.0$ 6,392.0$ 9,352.0$ 11,875.0$ 5,263.0$ 11,261.0$ 9,815.0$ 10,746.0$ 10,310.0$ 10,121.0$ 7,945.0$ 10,746.0$ 16,154.0$ 16,154.0$

Short-Term Investments 1,170.0$ 2,495.0$ 4,770.0$ 3,718.0$ 6,034.0$ 12,615.0$ 18,201.0$ 14,359.0$ 16,137.0$ 18,383.0$ 19,846.0$ 18,417.0$ 19,709.0$ 18,383.0$ 23,666.0$ 23,666.0$

Net Receivables 766.0$ 774.0$ 895.0$ 1,252.0$ 4,029.0$ 4,704.0$ 5,057.0$ 9,924.0$ 11,717.0$ 18,692.0$ 16,484.0$ 13,769.0$ 14,298.0$ 18,692.0$ 21,534.0$ 21,534.0$

% change from prev year 1.0% 15.6% 39.9% 221.8% 16.8% 7.5% 96.2% 18.1% 59.5% 40.7% -26.3% 3.8% 30.7% 15.2% 15.2%

Inventories, raw materials -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Inventories, work in progress 4.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Inventories, purchased components 2.0$ 1.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Inventories, finished goods 50.0$ 100.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Inventories, other -$ -$ 165.0$ 270.0$ 346.0$ 509.0$ 455.0$ 1,051.0$ 776.0$ 791.0$ 1,236.0$ 1,102.0$ 1,122.0$ 791.0$ 1,455.0$ 1,455.0$

Inventories 56.0$ 101.0$ 165.0$ 270.0$ 346.0$ 509.0$ 455.0$ 1,051.0$ 776.0$ 791.0$ 1,236.0$ 1,102.0$ 1,122.0$ 791.0$ 1,455.0$ 1,455.0$

% change from prev year 80.4% 63.4% 63.6% 28.1% 47.1% -10.6% 131.0% -26.2% 1.9% 59.3% 39.3% 1.8% -29.5% 83.9% 83.9%

Prepaid Expenses -$ -$ -$ -$ 417.0$ 475.0$ 309.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Current Deferred Income Taxes 190.0$ 231.0$ 331.0$ 607.0$ 782.0$ 1,447.0$ 1,135.0$ 1,636.0$ 2,014.0$ 2,583.0$ 1,937.0$ 2,253.0$ 2,309.0$ 2,583.0$ 2,895.0$ 2,895.0$

Other Current Assets 309.0$ 485.0$ 648.0$ 2,270.0$ 996.0$ 3,065.0$ 1,135.0$ 3,447.0$ 4,529.0$ 6,458.0$ 4,958.0$ 5,050.0$ 6,560.0$ 6,458.0$ 6,644.0$ 6,644.0$

Total Current Assets 5,887.0$ 7,055.0$ 10,300.0$ 14,509.0$ 21,956.0$ 34,690.0$ 31,555.0$ 41,678.0$ 44,988.0$ 57,653.0$ 54,771.0$ 50,712.0$ 51,943.0$ 57,653.0$ 72,348.0$ 72,348.0$

Land and Improvements 350.0$ 351.0$ 361.0$ 626.0$ 762.0$ 810.0$ 955.0$ 1,471.0$ 2,059.0$ 2,439.0$ 2,090.0$ 2,156.0$ 2,315.0$ 2,439.0$ 2,627.0$ 2,627.0$

Building and Improvements 357.0$ 446.0$ 545.0$ 760.0$ 1,019.0$ 1,324.0$ 1,665.0$ 2,030.0$ 2,599.0$ 3,464.0$ 2,742.0$ 2,930.0$ 3,086.0$ 3,464.0$ 3,593.0$ 3,593.0$

Machinery, Furniture & Equipment 467.0$ 501.0$ 575.0$ 689.0$ 1,060.0$ 1,613.0$ 2,047.0$ 3,733.0$ 7,110.0$ 15,984.0$ 7,508.0$ 8,855.0$ 10,804.0$ 15,984.0$ 16,994.0$ 16,994.0$

Construction in Progress -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Other Fixed Assets -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Total Fixed Assets 1,174.0$ 1,298.0$ 1,481.0$ 2,075.0$ 2,841.0$ 3,747.0$ 4,667.0$ 7,234.0$ 11,768.0$ 21,887.0$ 12,340.0$ 13,941.0$ 16,205.0$ 21,887.0$ 23,214.0$ 23,214.0$

Net Fixed Assets 669.0$ 707.0$ 817.0$ 1,281.0$ 1,832.0$ 2,455.0$ 2,954.0$ 4,768.0$ 7,777.0$ 15,452.0$ 7,816.0$ 8,847.0$ 10,487.0$ 15,452.0$ 15,422.0$ 15,422.0$

Intangible Assets 109.0$ 97.0$ 96.0$ 160.0$ 382.0$ 285.0$ 353.0$ 342.0$ 3,536.0$ 4,224.0$ 3,472.0$ 3,604.0$ 4,329.0$ 4,224.0$ 4,462.0$ 4,462.0$

Goodwill -$ -$ -$ 38.0$ 38.0$ 207.0$ 206.0$ 741.0$ 896.0$ 1,135.0$ 896.0$ 1,141.0$ 1,132.0$ 1,135.0$ 1,381.0$ 1,381.0$

Non Current Deferred Income Taxes -$ -$ 183.0$ -$ 88.0$ -$ 163.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Other Long-Term Assets 150.0$ 191.0$ 155.0$ 1,217.0$ 1,051.0$ 1,935.0$ 12,270.0$ 27,654.0$ 59,174.0$ 97,600.0$ 71,726.0$ 86,630.0$ 95,005.0$ 97,600.0$ 102,475.0$ 102,475.0$

Total Long-Term Assets 928.0$ 995.0$ 1,251.0$ 2,696.0$ 3,391.0$ 4,882.0$ 15,946.0$ 33,505.0$ 71,383.0$ 118,411.0$ 83,910.0$ 100,222.0$ 110,953.0$ 118,411.0$ 123,740.0$ 123,740.0$

Total Assets 6,815.0$ 8,050.0$ 11,551.0$ 17,205.0$ 25,347.0$ 39,572.0$ 47,501.0$ 75,183.0$ 116,371.0$ 176,064.0$ 138,681.0$ 150,934.0$ 162,896.0$ 176,064.0$ 196,088.0$ 196,088.0$

Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity

Accounts payable 1,154.0$ 1,451.0$ 1,779.0$ 3,390.0$ 4,970.0$ 5,520.0$ 5,601.0$ 12,015.0$ 14,632.0$ 21,175.0$ 18,221.0$ 17,011.0$ 16,808.0$ 21,175.0$ 26,398.0$ 26,398.0$

Short-Term Debt 304.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Taxes Payable -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Accrued Expenses 899.0$ 1,229.0$ -$ 1,191.0$ 1,260.0$ 8,572.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Accrued Liabilities -$ -$ 576.0$ -$ -$ -$ 3,422.0$ 1,593.0$ 8,107.0$ 9,879.0$ 7,435.0$ 6,733.0$ 8,832.0$ 9,879.0$ 11,214.0$ 11,214.0$

Deferred Revenues -$ -$ 501.0$ 746.0$ 1,410.0$ -$ 2,053.0$ 2,984.0$ 4,091.0$ 5,953.0$ 6,431.0$ 6,993.0$ 5,822.0$ 5,953.0$ 7,274.0$ 7,274.0$

Current Deferred Income Taxes -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Other Current Liabilities -$ -$ 628.0$ 1,144.0$ 1,659.0$ -$ 430.0$ 4,130.0$ 1,140.0$ 1,535.0$ 2,520.0$ 1,299.0$ 1,598.0$ 1,535.0$ 1,993.0$ 1,993.0$

Total Current Liabilities 2,357.0$ 2,680.0$ 3,484.0$ 6,471.0$ 9,299.0$ 14,092.0$ 11,506.0$ 20,722.0$ 27,970.0$ 38,542.0$ 34,607.0$ 32,036.0$ 33,060.0$ 38,542.0$ 46,879.0$ 46,879.0$

Long-Term Debt -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Other Liabilities -$ -$ -$ 369.0$ 897.0$ 3,775.0$ 2,139.0$ 2,370.0$ 11,786.0$ 19,312.0$ 14,020.0$ 16,400.0$ 18,090.0$ 19,312.0$ 21,863.0$ 21,863.0$

Deferred Income Taxes 235.0$ 294.0$ 601.0$ 381.0$ 619.0$ 675.0$ 2,216.0$ 4,300.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Total Long-Term Liabilities 235.0$ 294.0$ 601.0$ 750.0$ 1,516.0$ 4,450.0$ 4,355.0$ 6,670.0$ 11,786.0$ 19,312.0$ 14,020.0$ 16,400.0$ 18,090.0$ 19,312.0$ 21,863.0$ 21,863.0$

Total Liabilities 2,592.0$ 2,974.0$ 4,085.0$ 7,221.0$ 10,815.0$ 18,542.0$ 15,861.0$ 27,392.0$ 39,756.0$ 57,854.0$ 48,627.0$ 48,436.0$ 51,150.0$ 57,854.0$ 68,742.0$ 68,742.0$

Retained Earnings 2,394.0$ 2,670.0$ 4,005.0$ 5,607.0$ 9,101.0$ 13,845.0$ 23,353.0$ 37,169.0$ 62,841.0$ 101,289.0$ 75,709.0$ 87,124.0$ 95,641.0$ 101,289.0$ 109,567.0$ 109,567.0$

Preferred Equity -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Total Equity 4,223.0$ 5,076.0$ 7,466.0$ 9,984.0$ 14,532.0$ 21,030.0$ 31,640.0$ 47,791.0$ 76,615.0$ 118,210.0$ 90,054.0$ 102,498.0$ 111,746.0$ 118,210.0$ 127,346.0$ 127,346.0$

Total Liabilities & Equity 6,815.0$ 8,050.0$ 11,551.0$ 17,205.0$ 25,347.0$ 39,572.0$ 47,501.0$ 75,183.0$ 116,371.0$ 176,064.0$ 138,681.0$ 150,934.0$ 162,896.0$ 176,064.0$ 196,088.0$ 196,088.0$

Cash Flows Statement TTM

Cash Flows From Operating ActivitiesNet Income 69.0$ 276.0$ 1,335.0$ 1,989.0$ 3,496.0$ 4,834.0$ 8,235.0$ 14,013.0$ 25,922.0$ 41,733.0$ 13,064.0$ 24,686.0$ 33,510.0$ 41,733.0$ 13,078.0$ 41,747.0$

Depreciation & Amortization 113.0$ 150.0$ 179.0$ 225.0$ 317.0$ 473.0$ 734.0$ 1,027.0$ 1,814.0$ 3,277.0$ 721.0$ 1,461.0$ 2,296.0$ 3,277.0$ 1,588.0$ 4,144.0$

Deferred Income Taxes (11.0)$ 20.0$ 52.0$ 53.0$ 78.0$ (368.0)$ 1,040.0$ 1,440.0$ 2,868.0$ 4,405.0$ 1,456.0$ 2,915.0$ 4,066.0$ 4,405.0$ 1,179.0$ 4,128.0$

Operating Gains (8.0)$ 40.0$ 504.0$ 11.0$ 12.0$ 22.0$ 26.0$ 24.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Extraordinary Gains -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

(Incr) Decr. in Receivables (201.0)$ (8.0)$ (121.0)$ (357.0)$ (385.0)$ (785.0)$ (939.0)$ (4,860.0)$ (1,791.0)$ (6,965.0)$ (4,767.0)$ (2,042.0)$ (2,571.0)$ (6,965.0)$ (2,842.0)$ (5,040.0)$

(Incr) Decr. in Inventories (11.0)$ (45.0)$ (64.0)$ (105.0)$ (76.0)$ (163.0)$ 54.0$ (596.0)$ 275.0$ (15.0)$ (460.0)$ (326.0)$ (346.0)$ (15.0)$ (664.0)$ (219.0)$

(Incr) Decr. in Prepaid Expenses -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

(Incr) Decr. in Other Current Assets (64.0)$ (215.0)$ (211.0)$ (1,626.0)$ (1,540.0)$ (1,958.0)$ 749.0$ (1,514.0)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Decr. (Incr) in payables 243.0$ 297.0$ 328.0$ 1,611.0$ 1,494.0$ 596.0$ 92.0$ 6,307.0$ 2,515.0$ 4,467.0$ 4,314.0$ 2,809.0$ 2,450.0$ 4,467.0$ 6,145.0$ 6,298.0$

Decr. (Incr) in Other Current Liabilities 159.0$ 419.0$ 533.0$ -$ -$ 5,642.0$ 521.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Decr. (Incr) in Other Working Capital -$ -$ -$ 256.0$ 1,832.0$ 787.0$ (1,063.0)$ 1,875.0$ 4,758.0$ 2,214.0$ 2,806.0$ 1,184.0$ 1,023.0$ 2,214.0$ 4,397.0$ 3,805.0$

Other Non Cash Items -$ -$ -$ 163.0$ 242.0$ 516.0$ 710.0$ 879.0$ 1,168.0$ 1,740.0$ 420.0$ 844.0$ 1,292.0$ 1,740.0$ 545.0$ 1,865.0$

Net Cash From Operating Activities 289.0$ 934.0$ 2,535.0$ 2,220.0$ 5,470.0$ 9,596.0$ 10,159.0$ 18,595.0$ 37,529.0$ 50,856.0$ 17,554.0$ 31,531.0$ 41,720.0$ 50,856.0$ 23,426.0$ 56,728.0$

Cash Flows From Investing Activities

Sale of Long-term Investments 45.0$ 5.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 99,770.0$ -$ -$ 73,140.0$ 99,770.0$ -$ 99,770.0$

Sale of Short-term Investments -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Capital Expenditures (164.0)$ (176.0)$ (260.0)$ (657.0)$ (986.0)$ (1,199.0)$ (1,213.0)$ (2,121.0)$ (7,452.0)$ (9,402.0)$ (1,429.0)$ (2,938.0)$ (5,901.0)$ (9,402.0)$ (2,455.0)$ (10,428.0)$

Acquisitions -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ (220.0)$ -$ (638.0)$ (244.0)$ (350.0)$ -$ (350.0)$ (350.0)$ (350.0)$ (284.0)$ (634.0)$

Sale of Assets -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Purchase of Long-term Investments -$ -$ -$ (25.0)$ (17.0)$ (38.0)$ (101.0)$ (18.0)$ -$ (151,232.0)$ -$ -$ (121,091.0)$ (151,232.0)$ -$ (151,232.0)$

Purchase of Short-term Investments (2,648.0)$ (3,270.0)$ (11,470.0)$ (7,255.0)$ (11,719.0)$ (22,965.0)$ (46,724.0)$ (57,793.0)$ (102,317.0)$ -$ (40,175.0)$ (85,022.0)$ -$ -$ (37,192.0)$ 2,983.0$

Other Investing Changes, Net 33.0$ 11.0$ (21.0)$ (18.0)$ 49.0$ (10.0)$ (74.0)$ (2.0)$ (259.0)$ (48.0)$ (34.0)$ (48.0)$ (56.0)$ (48.0)$ (52.0)$ (66.0)$

Net Cash From Investing Activities 828.0$ (1,488.0)$ (2,556.0)$ 357.0$ (3,249.0)$ (8,189.0)$ (17,434.0)$ (13,854.0)$ (40,419.0)$ (48,227.0)$ (17,128.0)$ (31,604.0)$ (43,914.0)$ (48,227.0)$ (13,521.0)$ (44,620.0)$

Cash Flows From Financing ActivitiesIssuance of Capital Stock 53.0$ 427.0$ 543.0$ 318.0$ 365.0$ 483.0$ 475.0$ 912.0$ 831.0$ 665.0$ 91.0$ 377.0$ 433.0$ 665.0$ 76.0$ 650.0$

Repurchase of Capital Stock (26.0)$ -$ -$ (355.0)$ (3.0)$ (124.0)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ (1,950.0)$ (1,950.0)$

Net Issuance of Stock 27.0$ 427.0$ 543.0$ (37.0)$ 362.0$ 359.0$ 475.0$ 912.0$ 831.0$ 665.0$ 91.0$ 377.0$ 433.0$ 665.0$ (1,874.0)$ (1,300.0)$

Issuance of Debt -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Repayment of Debt -$ (300.0)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Net Issuance of Debt -$ (300.0)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Dividends Paid -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ (2,488.0)$ -$ -$ -$ (2,488.0)$ (2,493.0)$ (4,981.0)$

Cash from Financing 27.0$ 127.0$ 543.0$ 324.0$ 739.0$ 1,116.0$ 663.0$ 1,257.0$ 1,444.0$ (1,698.0)$ 69.0$ 379.0$ 324.0$ (1,698.0)$ (4,497.0)$ (6,264.0)$

Cash at Beginning of the Period 2,252.0$ 3,396.0$ 2,969.0$ 3,491.0$ 6,392.0$ 9,352.0$ 11,875.0$ 5,263.0$ 11,261.0$ 9,815.0$ 9,815.0$ 9,815.0$ 9,815.0$ 9,815.0$ 10,746.0$ 10,746.0$

Cash at End of the Period 3,396.0$ 2,969.0$ 3,491.0$ 6,392.0$ 9,352.0$ 11,875.0$ 5,263.0$ 11,261.0$ 9,815.0$ 10,746.0$ 10,310.0$ 10,121.0$ 7,945.0$ 10,746.0$ 16,154.0$ 16,590.0$ Change in Cash 1,144.0$ (427.0)$ 522.0$ 2,901.0$ 2,960.0$ 2,523.0$ (6,612.0)$ 5,998.0$ (1,446.0)$ 931.0$ 495.0$ 306.0$ (1,870.0)$ 931.0$ 5,408.0$ 5,844.0$

Free Cash FlowCash from Operations 289.0$ 934.0$ 2,535.0$ 2,220.0$ 5,470.0$ 9,596.0$ 10,159.0$ 18,595.0$ 37,529.0$ 50,856.0$ 17,554.0$ 31,531.0$ 41,720.0$ 50,856.0$ 23,426.0$ 56,728.0$

Cap Ex 164.0$ 176.0$ 260.0$ 657.0$ 986.0$ 1,199.0$ 1,213.0$ 2,121.0$ 7,452.0$ 9,402.0$ 1,429.0$ 2,938.0$ 5,901.0$ 9,402.0$ 2,455.0$ 10,428.0$

Free Cash Flow 125.0$ 758.0$ 2,275.0$ 1,563.0$ 4,484.0$ 8,397.0$ 8,946.0$ 16,474.0$ 30,077.0$ 41,454.0$ 16,125.0$ 28,593.0$ 35,819.0$ 41,454.0$ 20,971.0$ 46,300.0$

Owner Earnings FCF (108.0)$ (198.0)$ 789.0$ 1,941.0$ 1,744.0$ 505.0$ 9,052.0$ 12,586.0$ 15,695.0$ 37,647.0$ 10,883.0$ 22,428.0$ 30,641.0$ 37,647.0$ 5,720.0$ 32,484.0$

User Defined

2/18/2013

Enter Ticker Refresh CLEAR

Page 3: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc.

(AAPL)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 TTM

Income StatementRevenue 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Cost of Revenues 72.5% 72.7% 71.0% 71.0% 66.0% 65.7% 59.9% 60.6% 59.5% 56.1% 52.6% 57.2% 60.0% 61.4% 58.1%

Gross Profit 27.5% 27.3% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0% 34.3% 40.1% 39.4% 40.5% 43.9% 47.4% 42.8% 40.0% 38.6% 41.9%

Operating Expenses

Selling, General & Admin. Expenses 19.5% 17.2% 13.3% 12.6% 12.3% 11.6% 9.7% 8.5% 7.0% 6.4% 6.0% 7.3% 7.1% 5.2% 6.2%

Research & Development 7.6% 5.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 1.9% 2.2%

EBITDA 1.8% 5.7% 13.1% 13.9% 19.7% 20.8% 29.1% 29.8% 32.9% 37.4% 41.1% 35.4% 33.2% 34.5% 36.0%

Other Special Charges 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Depreciation & Amortization 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.5%

Operating Income 0.4% 4.2% 11.8% 12.7% 18.4% 19.3% 27.4% 28.2% 31.2% 35.3% 39.3% 33.0% 30.4% 31.6% 33.5%

Other Income and Expense

Interest Expense 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Other Income 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% 1.9% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.4% 0.4% 0.8% -3.2% 0.1% -0.4%

Earnings Before Taxes 1.5% 4.6% 13.0% 14.6% 20.9% 21.2% 28.1% 28.4% 31.6% 35.6% 39.6% 33.9% 30.3% 32.4% 34.0%

Income Taxes/(Credit) 0.4% 1.3% 3.4% 4.3% 6.3% 6.3% 8.9% 6.9% 7.7% 9.0% 10.0% 8.7% 7.4% 8.4% 8.6%

Earnings After Taxes 1.1% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 14.9% 19.2% 21.5% 23.9% 26.7% 29.7% 25.2% 22.9% 24.0% 25.3%

Minority Interest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net Income From Continuing

Operations 1.1% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 14.9% 19.2% 21.5% 23.9% 26.7% 29.7% 25.2% 22.9% 24.0% 25.3%

Net Income From Discontinued

Operations 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net Income From Total Operations 1.1% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 14.9% 19.2% 21.5% 23.9% 26.7% 29.7% 25.2% 22.9% 24.0% 25.3%

Balance Sheet MRQ

Assets

Cash & Equivalents 49.8% 36.9% 30.2% 37.2% 36.9% 30.0% 11.1% 15.0% 8.4% 6.1% 6.7% 4.9% 6.1% 8.2% 8.2%

Short-Term Investments 17.2% 31.0% 41.3% 21.6% 23.8% 31.9% 38.3% 19.1% 13.9% 10.4% 12.2% 12.1% 10.4% 12.1% 12.1%

Net Receivables 11.2% 9.6% 7.7% 7.3% 15.9% 11.9% 10.6% 13.2% 10.1% 10.6% 9.1% 8.8% 10.6% 11.0% 11.0%

Inventories 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7%

Other Current Assets 4.5% 6.0% 5.6% 13.2% 3.9% 7.7% 2.4% 4.6% 3.9% 3.7% 3.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.4% 3.4%

Total Current Assets 86.4% 87.6% 89.2% 84.3% 86.6% 87.7% 66.4% 55.4% 38.7% 32.7% 33.6% 31.9% 32.7% 36.9% 36.9%

Fixed Assets 9.8% 8.8% 7.1% 7.4% 7.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.7% 8.8% 5.9% 6.4% 8.8% 7.9% 7.9%

Intangible Assets 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 3.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3%

Other Long-Term Assets 2.2% 2.4% 1.3% 7.1% 4.1% 4.9% 25.8% 36.8% 50.8% 55.4% 57.4% 58.3% 55.4% 52.3% 52.3%

Total Long-Term Assets 13.6% 12.4% 10.8% 15.7% 13.4% 12.3% 33.6% 44.6% 61.3% 67.3% 66.4% 68.1% 67.3% 63.1% 63.1%

Total Assets 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity

Accounts payable 16.9% 18.0% 15.4% 19.7% 19.6% 13.9% 11.8% 16.0% 12.6% 12.0% 11.3% 10.3% 12.0% 13.5% 13.5%

Short-Term Debt 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Taxes Payable 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Accrued Liabilities 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 2.1% 7.0% 5.6% 4.5% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7%

Other Current Liabilities 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 6.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.9% 5.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%

Total Current Liabilities 34.6% 33.3% 30.2% 37.6% 36.7% 35.6% 24.2% 27.6% 24.0% 21.9% 21.2% 20.3% 21.9% 23.9% 23.9%

Long-Term Debt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Other Liabilities 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 3.5% 9.5% 4.5% 3.2% 10.1% 11.0% 10.9% 11.1% 11.0% 11.1% 11.1%

Deferred Income Taxes 3.4% 3.7% 5.2% 2.2% 2.4% 1.7% 4.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Total Long-Term Liabilities 3.4% 3.7% 5.2% 4.4% 6.0% 11.2% 9.2% 8.9% 10.1% 11.0% 10.9% 11.1% 11.0% 11.1% 11.1%

Total Liabilities 38.0% 36.9% 35.4% 42.0% 42.7% 46.9% 33.4% 36.4% 34.2% 32.9% 32.1% 31.4% 32.9% 35.1% 35.1%

Retained Earnings 35.1% 33.2% 34.7% 32.6% 35.9% 35.0% 49.2% 49.4% 54.0% 57.5% 57.7% 58.7% 57.5% 55.9% 55.9%

Preferred Equity 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Total Equity 62.0% 63.1% 64.6% 58.0% 57.3% 53.1% 66.6% 63.6% 65.8% 67.1% 67.9% 68.6% 67.1% 64.9% 64.9%

Total Liabilities & Equity 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Cash Flows Statement TTM

Cash Flows From Operating Activities

Net Income 23.9% 29.6% 52.7% 89.6% 63.9% 50.4% 81.1% 75.4% 69.1% 82.1% 78.3% 80.3% 82.1% 55.8% 73.6%

Depreciation & Amortization 39.1% 16.1% 7.1% 10.1% 5.8% 4.9% 7.2% 5.5% 4.8% 6.4% 4.6% 5.5% 6.4% 6.8% 7.3%

Deferred Taxes -3.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.4% 1.4% -3.8% 10.2% 7.7% 7.6% 8.7% 9.2% 9.7% 8.7% 5.0% 7.3%

Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 4.4% 5.4% 7.0% 4.7% 3.1% 3.4% 2.7% 3.1% 3.4% 2.3% 3.3%

Net Cash From Operating Activities 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Cash Flows From Investing Activities

Capital Expenditures -19.8% 11.8% 10.2% -184.0% 30.3% 14.6% 7.0% 15.3% 18.4% 19.5% 9.3% 13.4% 19.5% 18.2% 23.4%

Acquisitions 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 4.6% 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 2.1% 1.4%

Sale of Assets 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net Cash From Investing Activities 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Cash Flows From Financing Activities

Issuance of Capital Stock 196.3% 336.2% 100.0% 98.1% 49.4% 43.3% 71.6% 72.6% 57.5% -39.2% 99.5% 133.6% -39.2% -1.7% -10.4%

Repurchase of Capital Stock -96.3% 0.0% 0.0% -109.6% -0.4% -11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 31.1%

Net Issuance of Stock 100.0% 336.2% 100.0% -11.4% 49.0% 32.2% 71.6% 72.6% 57.5% -39.2% 99.5% 133.6% -39.2% 41.7% 20.8%

Issuance of Debt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Repayment of Debt 0.0% -236.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net Issuance of Debt 0.0% -236.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Dividends Paid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 146.5% 0.0% 0.0% 146.5% 55.4% 79.5%

Cash from Financing 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2/18/2013

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Page 4: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc.

(AAPL) Color Coding

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

Financial Statistics & Ratios

Valuation Ratios

P/E 116.70 53.47 32.40 32.22 40.48 17.80 20.67 19.13 13.17 14.63 10.43

P/E (cash adjusted) 53.89 33.88 26.22 27.14 36.08 12.73 17.82 17.30 12.16 13.93 9.48

EV/EBITDA 37.36 19.85 19.16 20.19 26.68 9.12 11.77 12.48 8.86 9.94 6.68

EV/Free Cash Flow 33.77 12.46 15.41 34.60 28.12 7.33 16.41 14.71 10.49 14.03 8.55

P/S 1.37 1.80 3.11 3.32 5.89 2.65 3.97 4.11 3.15 3.90 2.65

P/BV 2.01 2.94 5.80 6.43 9.74 4.09 5.38 5.61 4.46 5.17 3.42

P/Tang BV 2.06 2.99 5.88 6.53 10.00 4.15 5.44 5.65 4.67 5.36 3.55

P/CF 38.00 30.66 28.19 27.27 35.48 15.45 18.22 16.47 10.46 12.01 8.38

P/FCF 67.87 19.67 19.04 41.06 31.55 10.25 19.03 16.27 11.35 14.73 9.41

ROE 1.6% 5.4% 17.9% 19.9% 24.1% 23.0% 26.0% 29.3% 33.8% 35.3% 32.8%

ROA 1.0% 3.4% 11.6% 11.6% 13.8% 12.2% 17.3% 18.6% 22.3% 23.7% 21.3%

ROIC -17.1% -267.6% -625.6% 277.5% 464.9% 444.4% 63.9% 48.2% 41.0% 38.1% 37.6%

CROIC -115.7% -806.4% -1172.7% 250.5% 677.3% 848.2% 71.4% 57.1% 48.2% 38.2% 42.3%

GPA (Gross Profitability to Assets) 25.1% 28.1% 35.0% 32.5% 32.2% 28.2% 36.3% 34.2% 37.7% 39.0% 35.2%

Book to Market 49.8% 34.0% 17.2% 15.6% 10.3% 24.4% 18.6% 17.8% 22.4% 19.4% 29.2%

Solvency

Quick Ratio 2.47 2.59 2.91 2.20 2.32 2.43 2.70 1.96 1.58 1.48 1.51

Current Ratio 2.50 2.63 2.96 2.24 2.36 2.46 2.74 2.01 1.61 1.50 1.54

Total Debt/Equity Ratio 0.61 0.59 0.55 0.72 0.74 0.88 0.50 0.57 0.52 0.49 0.54

Long Term Debt/Equity Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Short Term Debt/Equity Ratio 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Efficiency Ratios

Asset Turnover 0.91 1.03 1.21 1.12 0.95 0.82 0.90 0.87 0.93 0.89 0.84

Cash % of Revenue 54.7% 35.9% 25.1% 33.1% 39.0% 36.6% 12.3% 17.3% 9.1% 6.9% 9.8%

Receivables % of Revenue 12.3% 9.3% 6.4% 6.5% 16.8% 14.5% 11.8% 15.2% 10.8% 11.9% 13.1%

SG&A % of Revenue 19.5% 17.2% 13.3% 12.6% 12.3% 11.6% 9.7% 8.5% 7.0% 6.4% 6.2%

R&D % of Revenue 7.6% 5.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

Liquidity Ratios

Days Sales Outstanding 45.0 34.1 23.4 23.7 61.3 52.9 43.0 55.5 39.5 43.6 47.7

Days Inventory Outstanding 4.5 6.1 6.1 7.2 8.0 8.7 6.5 9.7 4.4 3.3 5.6

Days Payable Outstanding 93.6 88.0 65.7 90.2 114.4 94.4 79.6 110.9 82.9 88.0 100.7

Cash Conversion Cycle -44.0 -47.7 -36.1 -59.4 -45.2 -32.9 -30.1 -45.7 -39.0 -41.1 -47.4

Receivables Turnover 8.10 10.75 16.69 17.99 9.09 7.44 8.79 8.71 10.00 10.29 8.19

Inventory Turnover 80.34 76.69 74.35 63.07 51.47 49.90 53.28 52.51 70.53 112.12 65.75

Average Age of Inventory (Days) 4.54 4.76 4.91 5.79 7.09 7.31 6.85 6.95 5.17 3.26 5.55

Intangibles % of Book Value 2.6% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 2.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 4.6% 3.6% 3.5%

Inventory % of Revenue 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9%

Capital Structure Ratios

LT-Debt as % of Invested Capital 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

ST-Debt as % of Invested Capital -281.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

LT-Debt as % of Total Debt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

ST-Debt as % of Total Debt 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Total Liabilities % of Total Assets 38.0% 36.9% 35.4% 42.0% 42.7% 46.9% 33.4% 36.4% 34.2% 32.9% 35.1%

Working Capital % of Price 41.6% 29.3% 15.7% 12.5% 8.9% 23.9% 11.8% 7.8% 5.0% 3.1% 5.8%

Quality Scores

Piostroski F Score 5.00 6.00 7.00 4.00 6.00 5.00 7.00 4.00 6.00 5.00 5.00

Altman Z Score (Original) 4.03 5.31 9.28 8.01 10.55 5.29 9.38 8.58 7.98 9.20 5.28

Altman Z Score (Revised) 8.07 10.23 17.19 14.56 19.51 10.60 17.35 15.37 13.71 15.80 9.88

Beneish M Score (5 Variable) - -2.92 -2.71 -1.91 -1.72 -2.80 -0.94 -2.04 -2.46 -2.53 -2.81

Beneish M Score (8 Variable) - -2.79 -2.59 -1.76 -1.33 -2.85 -1.12 -1.87 -2.40 -2.19 -2.75

2/18/2013

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Page 5: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc.

(AAPL)2/18/2013

http://tinyurl.com/6p394ap

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM/MRQ

Balance Sheet Accrual Ratio - 60.3% 61.4% -10.1% 36.2% 55.5% 96.9% 32.3% 58.6% 46.7% 3.4%

Cash Flow Accrual Ratio - 51.3% 44.6% -15.5% 29.1% 47.8% 87.3% 29.5% 55.8% 44.9% 27.1%

Sloan Accrual Ratio -15.4% 10.3% 11.7% -3.4% 5.0% 8.7% 32.7% 12.3% 24.8% 22.2% 15.1%

Earnings 0.10$ 0.36$ 1.56$ 2.27$ 3.93$ 5.36$ 9.08$ 15.15$ 27.68$ 44.15$ 44.10$

Stock Price 11.7$ 19.3$ 50.6$ 73.1$ 159.1$ 95.4$ 187.7$ 289.8$ 364.4$ 645.9$ 460.2$

Total Assets 6,815.0$ 8,050.0$ 11,551.0$ 17,205.0$ 25,347.0$ 39,572.0$ 47,501.0$ 75,183.0$ 116,371.0$ 176,064.0$ 196,088.0$

Cash & Equivalent 3,396.0$ 2,969.0$ 3,491.0$ 6,392.0$ 9,352.0$ 11,875.0$ 5,263.0$ 11,261.0$ 9,815.0$ 10,746.0$ 16,154.0$

Total Liabilities 2,592.0$ 2,974.0$ 4,085.0$ 7,221.0$ 10,815.0$ 18,542.0$ 15,861.0$ 27,392.0$ 39,756.0$ 57,854.0$ 68,742.0$

Short Term Debt 304.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Long Term Debt -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Net Operating Assets (NOA) 1,131.0$ 2,107.0$ 3,975.0$ 3,592.0$ 5,180.0$ 9,155.0$ 26,377.0$ 36,530.0$ 66,800.0$ 107,464.0$ 111,192.0$

Net Income 69.0$ 276.0$ 1,335.0$ 1,989.0$ 3,496.0$ 4,834.0$ 8,235.0$ 14,013.0$ 25,922.0$ 41,733.0$ 41,747.0$

CFO 289.0$ 934.0$ 2,535.0$ 2,220.0$ 5,470.0$ 9,596.0$ 10,159.0$ 18,595.0$ 37,529.0$ 50,856.0$ 56,728.0$

CFI 828.0$ (1,488.0)$ (2,556.0)$ 357.0$ (3,249.0)$ (8,189.0)$ (17,434.0)$ (13,854.0)$ (40,419.0)$ (48,227.0)$ (44,620.0)$

Balance Sheet Aggregate Accrual -$ 976.0$ 1,868.0$ (383.0)$ 1,588.0$ 3,975.0$ 17,222.0$ 10,153.0$ 30,270.0$ 40,664.0$ 3,728.0$

Cash Flow Aggregate Accrual -$ 830.0$ 1,356.0$ (588.0)$ 1,275.0$ 3,427.0$ 15,510.0$ 9,272.0$ 28,812.0$ 39,104.0$ 29,639.0$

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

Piotroski F Scores 5 6 7 4 6 5 7 4 6 5 5

Piotroski 1: Net Income 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Piotroski 2: Operating Cash Flow 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Piotroski 3: Return on Assets 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

Piotroski 4: Quality of Earnings 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Piotroski 5: LT Debt vs Assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Piotroski 6: Current Ratio 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1

Piotroski 7: Shares Outstanding 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Piotroski 8: Gross Margin 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0Piotroski 9: Asset Turnover 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

MRQ2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1

Working Capital 3,530.0$ 4,375.0$ 6,816.0$ 8,038.0$ 12,657.0$ 20,598.0$ 20,049.0$ 20,956.0$ 17,018.0$ 19,111.0$ 25,469.0$

Total Assets 6,815.0$ 8,050.0$ 11,551.0$ 17,205.0$ 25,347.0$ 39,572.0$ 47,501.0$ 75,183.0$ 116,371.0$ 176,064.0$ 196,088.0$

Total Liabilities 2,592.0$ 2,974.0$ 4,085.0$ 7,221.0$ 10,815.0$ 18,542.0$ 15,861.0$ 27,392.0$ 39,756.0$ 57,854.0$ 68,742.0$

Retained Earnings 2,394.0$ 2,670.0$ 4,005.0$ 5,607.0$ 9,101.0$ 13,845.0$ 23,353.0$ 37,169.0$ 62,841.0$ 101,289.0$ 109,567.0$

EBITDA 92.0$ 383.0$ 1,815.0$ 2,818.0$ 5,008.0$ 6,895.0$ 12,066.0$ 18,540.0$ 34,205.0$ 55,763.0$ 17,672.0$

Market Value of Equity 8,483.3$ 14,911.5$ 43,310.2$ 64,182.3$ 141,486.4$ 86,055.0$ 170,244.8$ 267,972.3$ 341,332.2$ 610,567.0$ 432,117.9$

Net Sales 6,207.0$ 8,279.0$ 13,931.0$ 19,315.0$ 24,006.0$ 32,479.0$ 42,905.0$ 65,225.0$ 108,249.0$ 156,508.0$ 54,512.0$

Normal Altman Z Score 4.03 5.31 9.28 8.01 10.55 5.29 9.38 8.58 7.98 9.20 5.28

Revised Altman Z Score 8.07 10.23 17.19 14.56 19.51 10.60 17.35 15.37 13.71 15.80 9.88

X1 0.11 0.13

X2 0.58 0.56

X3 0.32 0.09

X4 10.55 6.29

X5 0.89 0.28

Earnings growth due to accrual growth is not sustainable. This is like cookie jar accounting where a company “borrows” earnings from the future to make earnings look good today.

Balance sheet accrual can indicate whether capital is being used properly. A company with high accruals can come from acquiring or merging with companies which expands the asset base. Low

balance sheet accrual companies tend to shrink their balance sheet through spin offs, share repurchases or large write offs. In these situations, it is usually removing bad performing assets or returning

money to shareholders which is always a good use of capital.

High accruals indicate that the company has expanded its asset base rapidly.

Companies with high balance sheet accruals tend to have higher sales growth than low balance sheet accrual companies.

High balance sheet accruals also have a higher ROE.

Remember that maintaining a high sales growth or high ROE is difficult unless you have an entrenched moat. Such companies revert to the mean and disappoint..

Companies with low balance sheet accruals tend to have below average returns on equity. Analysts expect the company to lag.

Color Coding: Green = safe zone, Yellow = ratio is getting into warning zone, Red = Danger zone. Ratios are too high or low. Requires check.

More reading:http://tinyurl.com/7ucpoe2

Annual

Altman Z Score

MRQ Edit

5.28

Revised Altman Z Score

9.88

Altman Z Score

Earnings Quality Check with Accrual Analysis

MRQ

Piotroski Score

Annual MRQ

15.80

Annual

9.20

Enter Ticker Refresh CLEAR

Page 6: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

M Score - 5 Variable - -2.92 -2.71 -1.91 -1.72 -2.80 -0.94 -2.04 -2.46 -2.53 -2.81

M Score - 8 Variable - -2.79 -2.59 -1.76 -1.33 -2.85 -1.12 -1.87 -2.40 -2.19 -2.75

DSRI 0.76 0.69 1.01 2.59 0.86 0.81 1.29 0.71 1.10 1.09 0.00

GMI 1.01 0.94 1.00 0.85 0.99 0.85 1.02 0.97 0.92 1.05 0.00

AQI 0.94 1.05 2.19 0.75 1.00 4.46 1.40 1.43 1.07 0.94 0.00

SGI 1.33 1.68 1.39 1.24 1.35 1.32 1.52 1.66 1.45 1.05 0.00

DEPI 0.83 0.97 1.20 1.01 0.91 0.81 1.12 0.94 1.08 0.83 0.00

SGAI 0.88 0.78 0.94 0.98 0.94 0.84 0.87 0.83 0.91 0.97 0.00

TATA -0.08 -0.10 -0.01 -0.08 -0.12 -0.04 -0.06 -0.10 -0.05 -0.08 0.00

LVGI 0.96 0.91 1.25 0.98 0.97 0.68 1.14 0.87 0.91 1.09 0.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

Revenue 6,207.0$ 8,279.0$ 13,931.0$ 19,315.0$ 24,006.0$ 32,479.0$ 42,905.0$ 65,225.0$ 108,249.0$ 156,508.0$ 164,687.0$

EBIT 92.0$ 383.0$ 1,815.0$ 2,818.0$ 5,008.0$ 6,895.0$ 12,066.0$ 18,540.0$ 34,205.0$ 55,763.0$ 55,958.0$

EBT 92.0$ 383.0$ 1,815.0$ 2,818.0$ 5,008.0$ 6,895.0$ 12,066.0$ 18,540.0$ 34,205.0$ 55,763.0$ 55,958.0$

Interest Expense -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Income Tax 24.0$ 107.0$ 480.0$ 829.0$ 1,512.0$ 2,061.0$ 3,831.0$ 4,527.0$ 8,283.0$ 14,030.0$ 14,211.0$

Net Income 69.0$ 276.0$ 1,335.0$ 1,989.0$ 3,496.0$ 4,834.0$ 8,235.0$ 14,013.0$ 25,922.0$ 41,733.0$ 41,747.0$

Total Assets 6,815.0$ 8,050.0$ 11,551.0$ 17,205.0$ 25,347.0$ 39,572.0$ 47,501.0$ 75,183.0$ 116,371.0$ 176,064.0$ 196,088.0$

Shareholders Equity 4,223.0$ 5,076.0$ 7,466.0$ 9,984.0$ 14,532.0$ 21,030.0$ 31,640.0$ 47,791.0$ 76,615.0$ 118,210.0$ 127,346.0$

Three-Step DuPont Model:Net Profit Margin (Net Income ÷ Sales) 1.1% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 14.9% 19.2% 21.5% 23.9% 26.7% 25.3%

Asset Turnover (Sales ÷ Total Assets) 0.91 1.03 1.21 1.12 0.95 0.82 0.90 0.87 0.93 0.89 0.84

Equity Multiplier (Total Assets ÷ Shareholders Equity)1.61 1.59 1.55 1.72 1.74 1.88 1.50 1.57 1.52 1.49 1.54

Return on Equity 1.6% 5.4% 17.9% 19.9% 24.1% 23.0% 26.0% 29.3% 33.8% 35.3% 32.8%

Five-Step DuPont Model:Tax Burden (Net Income ÷ EBT) 0.75 0.72 0.74 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.75

Interest Burden (EBT ÷ EBIT) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Operating Income Margin (EBIT ÷ Sales) 1.5% 4.6% 13.0% 14.6% 20.9% 21.2% 28.1% 28.4% 31.6% 35.6% 34.0%

Asset Turnover (Sales ÷ Total Assets) 0.91 1.03 1.21 1.12 0.95 0.82 0.90 0.87 0.93 0.89 0.84

Equity Multiplier (Total Assets ÷ Shareholders Equity)1.61 1.59 1.55 1.72 1.74 1.88 1.50 1.57 1.52 1.49 1.54

Return on Equity 1.6% 5.4% 17.9% 19.9% 24.1% 23.0% 26.0% 29.3% 33.8% 35.3% 32.8%

DuPont Analysis

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/accounting/dupont-analysis-model-spreadsheet/

Full tutorial, example and discussion of how the DuPont analysis is used is provided on the blog.

The Beneish M Score FormulaThe eight variables are then weighted together according to the following:

M = -4.84 + 0.92*DSRI + 0.528*GMI + 0.404*AQI + 0.892*SGI + 0.115*DEPI - 0.172*SGAI + 4.679*TATA - 0.327*LVGI

A score greater than -2.22 indicates a strong likelihood of a firm being a manipulator. In his out of sample tests, Beneish found that he could correctly identify 76% of manipulators, whilst only incorrectly

identifying 17.5% of non-manipulators.

The 5 Variable Version of the Beneish ModelThe five variable version excludes SGAI, DEPI and LEVI which were not significant in the original Beneish model.

M = -6.065 + 0.823*DSRI + 0.906*GMI + 0.593*AQI + 0.717*SGI + 0.107*DEPI

A score greater than -2.22 indicates a strong likelihood of a firm being a manipulator.

The Beneish Model - M Score VariablesDSRI = Days' Sales in Receivables Index. Measured as the ratio of days' sales in receivables in year t to year t-1. A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

GMI = Gross Margin Index. Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t. Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more

likely to manipulate earnings.

AQI = Asset Quality Index. Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

SGI = Sales Growth Index. Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1. Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to

manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

DEPI = Depreciation Index. Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t. DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower

rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index. The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t -1.

LVGI = Leverage Index. The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1. An LVGI >1 indicates an increase in leverage

TATA - Total Accruals to Total Assets. Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

Net Profit Margin (NetIncome ÷ Sales)

Asset Turnover (Sales ÷Total Assets)

Equity Multiplier (TotalAssets ÷ ShareholdersEquity)

Return on Equity

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Operating Income Margin(EBIT ÷ Sales)

Return on Equity

Tax Burden (Net Income ÷EBT)

Interest Burden (EBT ÷ EBIT)

Asset Turnover (Sales ÷Total Assets)

Page 7: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc.

Figures in Millions except per share values

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

$125.0 $758.0 $2,275.0 $1,563.0 $4,484.0 $8,397.0 $8,946.0 $16,474.0 $30,077.0 $41,454.0 $46,300.0 -$108.0 -$198.0 $789.0 $1,941.0 $1,744.0 $505.0 $9,052.0 $12,586.0 $15,695.0 $37,647.0 $32,484.0

% Change 506.4% 200.1% -31.3% 186.9% 87.3% 6.5% 84.1% 82.6% 37.8% 11.7% % Change -83.3% 498.5% 146.0% -10.1% -71.0% 1692.5% 39.0% 24.7% 139.9% -13.7%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

$11.7 $19.3 $50.6 $73.1 $159.1 $95.4 $187.7 $289.8 $364.4 $645.9 $460.2 $0.10 $0.36 $1.56 $2.27 $3.93 $5.36 $9.08 $15.15 $27.68 $44.15 $44.10

% Change 65.0% 162.6% 44.7% 117.5% -40.0% 96.8% 54.4% 25.8% 77.2% -28.8% % Change 260.0% 333.3% 45.5% 73.1% 36.4% 69.4% 66.9% 82.7% 59.5% -0.1%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

2.0% 9.2% 16.3% 8.1% 18.7% 25.9% 20.9% 25.3% 27.8% 26.5% 28.1% 67.9 19.7 19.0 41.1 31.6 10.2 19.0 16.3 11.3 14.7 9.4

% Change 354.6% 78.4% -50.4% 130.8% 38.4% -19.4% 21.1% 10.0% -4.7% 6.1% % Change -71.0% -3.2% 115.7% -23.2% -67.5% 85.7% -14.5% -30.2% 29.8% -36.1%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

-115.7% -806.4% -1172.7% 250.5% 677.3% 848.2% 71.4% 57.1% 48.2% 38.2% 42.3% 1.5% 5.1% 5.3% 2.4% 3.2% 9.8% 5.3% 6.1% 8.8% 6.8% 10.6%

% Change -596.7% -45.4% 121.4% 170.4% 25.2% -91.6% -20.0% -15.7% -20.6% 10.7% % Change 245.0% 3.3% -53.6% 30.1% 207.9% -46.1% 17.0% 43.3% -22.9% 56.5%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

2.7% 5.0% 5.2% 5.0% 3.7% 11.0% 8.5% 8.0% 11.3% 10.1% 15.0% 2.2% 7.5% 23.8% 30.2% 34.6% 29.9% 52.5% 72.1% 138.0% 161.3% 136.8%

% Change 88.2% 3.6% -5.1% -24.3% 192.5% -22.5% -5.7% 40.9% -10.8% 48.7% % Change 244.0% 215.5% 27.2% 14.3% -13.5% 75.4% 37.4% 91.4% 17.0% -15.2%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

27.5% 27.3% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0% 34.3% 40.1% 39.4% 40.5% 43.9% 41.9% 1.1% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 14.9% 19.2% 21.5% 23.9% 26.7% 25.3%

% Change -0.8% 6.4% -0.1% 17.2% 1.0% 17.0% -1.9% 2.8% 8.4% -4.5% % Change 199.9% 187.5% 7.5% 41.4% 2.2% 29.0% 11.9% 11.5% 11.4% -4.9%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

5.0 6.0 7.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 7.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 5.3 9.3 8.0 10.5 5.3 9.4 8.6 8.0 9.2 5.3

% Change 20.0% 16.7% -42.9% 50.0% -16.7% 40.0% -42.9% 50.0% -16.7% 0.0% % Change 31.7% 74.8% -13.6% 31.7% -49.8% 77.1% -8.5% -6.9% 15.3% -42.6%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

-2.8 -2.6 -1.8 -1.3 -2.9 -1.1 -1.9 -2.4 -2.2 -2.7 26.1% 27.9% 26.4% 29.4% 30.2% 29.9% 31.8% 24.4% 24.2% 25.2% 25.4%

% Change #DIV/0! 7.3% 32.2% 24.2% -114.0% 60.6% -66.8% -28.2% 8.8% -25.5% % Change 7.1% -5.3% 11.2% 2.6% -1.0% 6.2% -23.1% -0.8% 3.9% 0.9%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

61.4% 58.6% 54.7% 72.3% 74.4% 88.2% 50.1% 57.3% 51.9% 48.9% 54.0% 4.8% 25.5% 55.7% 21.6% 41.5% 45.3% 56.4% 60.1% 75.7% 71.7% 67.4%

% Change -4.5% -6.6% 32.2% 2.9% 18.5% -43.1% 14.3% -9.5% -5.7% 10.3% % Change 428.5% 118.5% -61.1% 91.5% 9.2% 24.5% 6.6% 25.8% -5.3% -6.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

41.1%

% Change #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! % Change #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

(AAPL)2/18/2013

Diluted EPS

FCF / Sales Price / FCF

Free Cash Flow

Stock Price

FCF to Short Term Debt FCF to Long Term Debt

Gross Margin Net Profit Margin

Piotroski F score Original Altman Z Score

Beneish M Score - 8 Variable Version Tax Rate

Magic Formula Investing -- Earnings Yield Magic Formula Investing -- Return on Capital

Owner Earnings

Debt to Equity FCF to Total Debt

Cash Return on Invested Capital (CROIC) FCF Yield

Enter Ticker Refresh

Page 8: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc.

(AAPL)

AAPL MSFT DELL HPQ BBRY

2Company Apple Inc.

Microsoft

Corporation Dell Inc.

Hewlett-

Packard

Research In

Motion Limited

3 Sector Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology

4

Industry Personal

Computers

Application

Software

Personal

Computers

Diversified

Computer

Systems

Diversified

Communication

Services

5 Country USA USA USA USA Canada 68 Earnings Date 23-Jan-2013 24-Jan-2013 19-Feb-2013 21-Feb-2013 24-Mar-2011

65 Price $460.16 $28.01 $13.81 $16.79 $14.15

6 Market Cap $432,117.85 $234,618.76 $24,010.07 $32,786.17 $7,419.48

66 Change -1.38% -0.11% 0.73% -1.41% -6.07% max

67 Volume 13,961,008 49,516,760 20,541,424 15,324,705 92,531,616

60 Change from Open -1.90% -0.14% 0.80% -1.87% -7.48% max

61 Gap 0.53% 0.04% -0.07% 0.47% 1.53%

55 50-Day High -20.45% -0.78% -2.54% -3.78% -22.73%

56 50-Day Low 6.40% 6.66% 39.49% 31.32% 33.66%

57 52-Week High -34.06% -13.15% -23.56% -42.44% -22.73%58 52-Week Low 6.40% 6.66% 60.18% 49.33% 127.57%

7 P/E 10.43 15.39 9.39 0.00 0.00 min

8 Forward P/E 9.04 8.86 8.32 4.81 0.00 min

9 PEG 0.55 1.84 0.97 0.00 0.00 min

10 P/S 2.62 3.22 0.41 0.27 0.59 min

11 P/B 3.39 3.23 2.36 1.47 0.78 min

12 P/Cash 10.85 3.43 2.13 2.90 2.72 min

13 P/Free Cash Flow 9.86 11.36 7.67 5.60 8.99 min

14 Dividend Yield 2.30% 3.28% 2.32% 3.16% 0.00% max

15 Payout Ratio 11.98% 46.66% 5.33% 0.00% 0.00% min

16 EPS (ttm) $44.10 $1.82 $1.47 ($6.45) ($1.62)

17 EPS growth this year 59.51% -25.91% 39.82% -292.77% -64.95% max

18 EPS growth next year 13.72% 10.88% -2.92% 5.12% 63.60% max

19 EPS growth past 5 years 62.22% 7.01% 10.63% 5.52% 14.99% max

20 EPS growth next 5 years 18.98% 8.38% 9.67% 0.00% 5.00% max

21 Sales growth past 5 years 44.81% 7.60% 1.57% 2.91% 43.43% max

22 EPS growth quarter over quarter -0.49% -3.49% -44.18% -3027.70% -94.72% max

23 Sales growth quarter over quarter 17.65% 2.73% -10.70% -6.73% -47.21% max

32 Return on Assets 24.94% 12.83% 5.96% -10.62% -6.35% max

33 Return on Equity 38.41% 22.62% 27.66% -41.43% -8.67% max

34 Return on Investment 32.96% 16.84% 11.47% -18.02% -8.45% max

35 Current Ratio 1.54 2.81 1.18 1.09 2.23 max

36 Quick Ratio 1.51 2.76 1.11 0.95 2.08 max

37 LT Debt/Equity 0.00 0.16 0.52 0.97 0.00 min

38 Total Debt/Equity 0.00 0.20 0.89 1.27 0.00 min

39 Gross Margin 41.91% 75.35% 21.25% 22.95% 30.68% max

40 Operating Margin 33.46% 26.76% 5.53% -9.19% -10.85% max

41 Profit Margin 25.35% 21.20% 4.44% -10.51% -6.73% max

24 Shares Outstanding 939.06 8,376.25 1,738.60 1,952.72 524.16

25 Shares Float 938.76 7,597.51 1,490.73 1,951.35 425.06

26 Insider Ownership 0.03% 5.10% 0.06% 0.02% 15.01% max

27 Insider Transactions 3.68% -8.28% 25.21% 331.33% 0.00%

28 Institutional Ownership 64.11% 66.93% 68.56% 79.08% 60.57%

29 Institutional Transactions -4.13% -1.20% 3.08% -0.09% 0.16%

30 Float Short 2.01% 1.05% 2.76% 4.13% 31.79% min

31 Short Ratio 0.9 1.6 1.1 2.7 2.2

42 Performance (Week) -3.12% 1.67% 1.32% -0.47% -14.16%

43 Performance (Month) -8.55% 3.59% 9.52% -2.44% -3.97%

44 Performance (Quarter) -13.79% 4.36% 45.37% 28.96% 66.73%

45 Performance (Half Year) -26.39% -6.26% 15.08% -11.77% 87.24%

46 Performance (Year) -8.34% -5.40% -22.24% -40.63% -2.85%

46 Performance (Year) -8.34% -5.40% -22.24% -40.63% -2.85%

48 Beta 1.04 0.94 1.41 1.12 1.64

49 Average True Range 13.49 0.39 0.36 0.48 1.38

50 Volatility (Week) 2.34% 0.99% 1.41% 2.12% 10.29%

51 Volatility (Month) 2.58% 1.52% 2.21% 2.52% 8.93%

52 20-Day Simple Moving Average -1.36% 1.33% 3.49% -0.09% -9.67%

53 50-Day Simple Moving Average -8.03% 2.85% 17.35% 7.66% 2.46%

54 200-Day Simple Moving Average -20.07% -2.76% 20.54% -3.01% 41.50%

59 Relative Strength Index (14) 43.21 58.85 71.00 56.60 45.76

62 Analyst Recom 2.00 2.00 3.10 3.20 3.40

63 Average Volume 21,597.98 51,124.31 38,353.08 29,973.36 62,980.89

64 Relative Volume 0.65 0.97 0.54 0.51 1.47

Enter Competitor Tickers

2/18/2013

Enter Ticker CLEAR Update

Page 9: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc. Shares Out. M.O.S Growth Discount % Terminal % Select FCF Adjust 2012 FCF

(AAPL) 939.06 939.06 0.7% 9.0%

2/18/2013 Select input with

each list or enter

your own value

0.7%

Current Price Fair Value Buy Under Actual M.O.S 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low

$460.16 $460.06 $230.03 0% $705.07 $435.00

Fiscal Year Trend 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

Cash Flow Data

Cash from Operations $289.0 $934.0 $2,535.0 $2,220.0 $5,470.0 $9,596.0 $10,159.0 $18,595.0 $37,529.0 $50,856.0 $56,728.0

Capex ($164.0) ($176.0) ($260.0) ($657.0) ($986.0) ($1,199.0) ($1,213.0) ($2,121.0) ($7,452.0) ($9,402.0) ($10,428.0)

Cash Flow $223.2 $486.4 $1,536.5 $2,353.9 $3,987.5 $5,571.5 $9,341.3 $16,275.2 $32,629.7 $50,831.3 $51,986.4

Free Cash Flow $125.0 $758.0 $2,275.0 $1,563.0 $4,484.0 $8,397.0 $8,946.0 $16,474.0 $30,077.0 $40,000.0 $46,300.0

YOY% Change 506.4% 200.1% -31.3% 186.9% 87.3% 6.5% 84.1% 82.6% 33.0% 15.8%

Margins

Gross Margin 27.5% 27.3% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0% 34.3% 40.1% 39.4% 40.5% 43.9% 41.9%

Operating Margin 0.4% 4.2% 11.8% 12.7% 18.4% 19.3% 27.4% 28.2% 31.2% 35.3% 33.5%

Net Margin 1.1% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 14.9% 19.2% 21.5% 23.9% 26.7% 25.3%

EPS & Tax

Diluted EPS $0.10 $0.36 $1.56 $2.27 $3.93 $5.36 $9.08 $15.15 $27.68 $44.15 $44.10

Tax Rate 26.1% 27.9% 26.4% 29.4% 30.2% 29.9% 31.8% 24.4% 24.2% 25.2% 25.4%

Efficiency & Profitability

CROIC -115.7% -806.4% -1172.7% 250.5% 677.3% 848.2% 71.4% 57.1% 48.2% 38.2% 42.3%

FCF/Sales 2.0% 9.2% 16.3% 8.1% 18.7% 25.9% 20.9% 25.3% 27.8% 26.5% 28.1%

Inventory Turnover 80.3 76.7 74.3 63.1 51.5 49.9 53.3 52.5 70.5 112.1 65.8

Return On Assets (ROA) 1.0% 3.4% 11.6% 11.6% 13.8% 12.2% 17.3% 18.6% 22.3% 23.7% 21.3%

Retun On Equity (ROE) 1.6% 5.4% 17.9% 19.9% 24.1% 23.0% 26.0% 29.3% 33.8% 35.3% 32.8%

Debt Related

Debt to Equity 61.4% 58.6% 54.7% 72.3% 74.4% 88.2% 50.1% 57.3% 51.9% 48.9% 54.0%

Capitalization Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

FCF to Total Debt 4.8% 25.5% 55.7% 21.6% 41.5% 45.3% 56.4% 60.1% 75.7% 71.7% 67.4%

FCF to Short Term Debt 41.1%

FCF to Long Term Debt

2007-2011 2008-2012 2007-2010 2008-2011 2009-2012 2007-2009 2008-2010 2009-2011 2010-2012 Median

Tang Shareholder Equity 50.8% 53.1% 49.7% 52.2% 53.9% 48.7% 51.2% 52.8% 55.0% 52.2%

Free Cash Flow 60.9% 49.1% 54.3% 53.0% 66.7% 41.2% 40.1% 83.4% 58.6% 54.3%

CROIC 71.4% 57.1% 374.4% 64.3% 52.6% 677.3% 71.4% 57.1% 48.2% 64.3%

FCF/Sales 25.3% 25.9% 23.1% 25.6% 25.9% 20.9% 25.3% 25.3% 26.5% 25.3%

ROA 17.3% 18.6% 15.6% 18.0% 20.5% 13.8% 17.3% 18.6% 22.3% 18.0%

ROE 26.0% 29.3% 25.0% 27.7% 31.6% 24.1% 26.0% 29.3% 33.8% 27.7%

Gross Margin 39.4% 40.1% 36.8% 39.8% 40.3% 34.3% 39.4% 40.1% 40.5% 39.8%

Operating Margin 27.4% 28.2% 23.3% 27.8% 29.7% 19.3% 27.4% 28.2% 31.2% 27.8%

Net Margin 19.2% 21.5% 17.0% 20.3% 22.7% 14.9% 19.2% 21.5% 23.9% 20.3%

Revenue Growth 45.7% 48.2% 39.5% 49.4% 53.9% 33.7% 41.7% 58.8% 54.9% 48.2%

Earnings Growth 62.9% 69.4% 56.8% 72.8% 69.4% 52.0% 68.1% 74.6% 70.7% 69.4%

Cash from Ops Growth 61.8% 51.7% 50.4% 57.6% 71.1% 36.3% 39.2% 92.2% 65.4% 57.6%

10 Year Multi-Year Performance2003-2010 2004-2011 2005-2012 2003-2008 2004-2009 2005-2010 2006-2011 2007-2012 2003-2012 Median

Tang Shareholder Equity 41.8% 46.8% 47.9% 38.2% 44.4% 45.1% 49.4% 51.8% 44.6% 45.1%

Free Cash Flow 100.8% 69.2% 51.4% 132.0% 63.8% 48.6% 80.7% 56.0% 90.6% 69.2%

CROIC 64.3% 64.3% 64.3% 67.4% 160.9% 160.9% 160.9% 64.3% 57.1% 64.3%

FCF/Sales 17.5% 19.8% 23.1% 12.7% 17.5% 19.8% 23.1% 25.6% 19.8% 19.8%

ROA 11.9% 13.0% 15.6% 11.6% 11.9% 13.0% 15.6% 18.0% 13.0% 13.0%

ROE 21.5% 23.5% 25.0% 18.9% 21.5% 23.5% 25.0% 27.7% 23.5% 23.5%

Gross Margin 31.5% 34.1% 36.8% 29.0% 31.5% 34.1% 36.8% 39.8% 34.1% 34.1%

Operating Margin 15.5% 18.8% 23.3% 12.3% 15.5% 18.8% 23.3% 27.8% 18.8% 18.8%

Net Margin 12.4% 14.7% 17.0% 9.9% 12.4% 14.7% 17.0% 20.3% 14.7% 14.7%

Revenue Growth 39.9% 44.4% 41.3% 39.2% 39.0% 36.2% 41.2% 45.5% 43.1% 41.2%

Earnings Growth 104.9% 86.0% 61.2% 121.7% 90.7% 57.6% 64.9% 62.2% 96.7% 86.0%

Cash from Ops Growth 81.3% 69.5% 53.5% 101.5% 61.2% 49.0% 76.0% 56.2% 77.6% 69.5%

Projection of future Free Cash Flow2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Yearly Growth Input Field

1% $40,280.00 $40,561.96 $40,845.89 $41,103.22 $41,362.17 $41,622.75 $41,884.98 $42,122.47 $42,361.30 $42,601.49

Terminal Growth 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

2% 43,453.52$ 44,322.59$ 45,209.04$ 46,113.22$ 47,035.49$ 47,976.20$ 48,935.72$ 49,914.43$ 50,912.72$ 51,930.98$

Calculation Sensitivity Matrix: Growth vs Discount RateTotal Cash

MAX(0,Current Liabilities-Current Assets) 7% 8% 9% 10% 11%

Excess Cash -3% 429.98$ 402.12$ 377.38$ 355.33$ 335.60$

Adding some Intangibles -1% 476.33$ 444.15$ 415.60$ 390.20$ 367.52$

Interest Bearing Debt 1% 528.58$ 491.45$ 458.55$ 429.32$ 403.26$

Present Value 3% 587.46$ 544.66$ 506.80$ 473.19$ 443.27$

Shares Outstanding 5% 653.76$ 604.49$ 560.96$ 522.38$ 488.07$

Per Share Value

Desired Margin of Safety Sensitivity Matrix: Margin of Safety %Purchase Price

Current Price 7% 8% 9% 10% 11%

Margin of Safety -3% -7.0% -14.4% -21.9% -29.5% -37.1%

-1% 3.4% -3.6% -10.7% -17.9% -25.2%

Variable Fields 1% 12.9% 6.4% -0.4% -7.2% -14.1%

Intangibles% add to DCF 3% 21.7% 15.5% 9.2% 2.8% -3.8%

Decay Rate (Yr4E-Yr7E) 5% 29.6% 23.9% 18.0% 11.9% 5.7%

Extra Decay (Yr8E-Yr10E)

5 Year Multi-Year Performance

-$

0%

Discount Rates

Growth Rates

39,820.00$

10%

Discount Rates

Growth Rates

-$

939.06

460.06$

432,023.76$

10%

0%

$40,000.02%50%

50%

230.03$

460.16$

FCF

39,820.00$

-$

Enter Ticker CLEAR Refresh

Page 10: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Shares Out. M.O.S Growth Projection EPS Corp Bond

(AAPL) 939.06 5.5% $33.55 4.00

2/18/2013 5.5%

Current Price Intrinsic $ Buy Under Actual M.O.S 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low

$460.16 $461.28 $156.83 0% $705.07 $435.00

2007-2011 2008-2012 2007-2010 2008-2011 2009-2012 2007-2009 2008-2010 2009-2011 2010-2012 Median

5 Yr EPS Growth 62.9% 69.4% 56.8% 72.8% 69.4% 52.0% 68.1% 74.6% 70.7% 69.4%

2003-2010 2004-2011 2005-2012 2003-2008 2004-2009 2005-2010 2006-2011 2007-2012

10 Yr EPS Growth 104.9% 86.0% 61.2% 121.7% 90.7% 57.6% 64.9% 62.2%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM

Diltued EPS 0.10$ 0.36$ 1.56$ 2.27$ 3.93$ 5.36$ 9.08$ 15.15$ 27.68$ 44.15$ 44.10$

2013E 2014E

Forecast Method 33.55$ 35.39$

Linear Regression Method 20.09$ 21.19$

Analyst Estimate 44.75$ 50.89$

Normal Earnings 33.55$

Growth Rate 5.50%

Corp Bond Rate 4.00

Per Share Value 461.28$

MOS 66%

Purchase Price 156.83$

Current Price $460.16

Actual Discount 0%

Growth Sensitivity Increment 15%

EPS Sensivity Increments 15%

Graham's Sensitivity Matrix

Median

86.0%

Graham Value Calculation

66%939.06 Forecast

Apple Inc.

Enter Ticker Refresh CLEAR

$0.10 $0.36 $1.56 $2.27 $3.93 $5.36 $9.08

$15.15

$27.68

$44.15

$33.55 $35.39

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

23.48$ 28.52$ 33.55$ 38.58$ 43.61$

3.9% 280.27$ 340.33$ 400.39$ 460.45$ 520.50$

4.7% 301.58$ 366.21$ 430.83$ 495.46$ 560.08$

5.5% 322.89$ 392.08$ 461.28$ 530.47$ 599.66$

6.3% 344.20$ 417.96$ 491.72$ 565.48$ 639.24$

8.2% 393.22$ 477.48$ 561.74$ 646.00$ 730.26$

EPS

Gro

wth

Page 11: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc.Current EPS

Exp Growth Dividend Yield

Business

Risk

Financial

Risk

Earnings

Predictabilit

y

(AAPL) 5% 2.30% Below AverageBelow AverageBelow Average

2/18/2013 Current PE 7 of 20 pts 7 of 20 pts 7 of 20 pts

2.30% 7 7 7

Katsenelson Absolute PE Current Price Fair Value Fair Value PE Current PE FV Exp Grth M.O.S

$460.16 $469.98 10.66 10.43 5% 2%

Determine Business Risk 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM AVERAGE STDEV

ROE 22.99% 26.03% 29.32% 33.83% 35.30% 32.78% 30.0% 4.8%

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 1 1 5

ROA 12.22% 17.34% 18.64% 22.28% 23.70% 21.29% 19.2% 4.2%

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 1 1 5

CROIC 848.18% 71.39% 57.12% 48.16% 38.24% 42.33% 184.2% 325.5%

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 1 1 5

Intangibles % of Book Value 1.36% 1.12% 0.72% 4.62% 3.57% 3.50% 2.5% 1.6%

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 1 1 5

Business Risk Factor: 20 pts out of 20 Excellent 10% Factor 20 0.0%

Determine Financial Risk 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM AVERAGE STDEV

Current Ratio 2.46 2.74 2.01 1.61 1.50 1.54 1.98 0.52

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 0 1 4

Total Debt/Equity Ratio 0.88 0.50 0.57 0.52 0.49 0.54 0.58 0.15

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 1 1 5

Short Term Debt/Equity Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 1 1 5

FCF to Total Debt 45.29% 56.40% 60.14% 75.65% 71.65% 67.35% 62.7% 11.1%

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 1 1 5

Financial Risk Factor: 19 pts out of 20 Excellent 9% Factor 19 0.0%

Determine Earnings Predictability 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TTM AVERAGE STDEV

Gross Margin 34.31% 40.14% 39.38% 40.48% 43.87% 41.91% 40.0% 3.2%

Consistency/quality check 1 0 1 1 0 3

Net Margin 14.88% 19.19% 21.48% 23.95% 26.67% 25.35% 21.9% 4.4%

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 1 0 4

Earnings $5.36 $9.08 $15.15 $27.68 $44.15 $44.10 24.25 17.16

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 1 0 4

Cash from Ops $9,596.00 $10,159.00 $18,595.00 $37,529.00 $50,856.00 $56,728.00 $30,577.17 20708.01

Consistency/quality check 1 1 1 1 1 5

Earnings Predict. Factor: 16 pts out of 20 Excellent 6% Factor 16 0.0%

Katsenelson Absolute PE Valuation ModelEarnings Growth 5.00% 10.43

Dividend Yield 2.30% 2.00

=

Adjusted Base PE 12.43

x

Business Risk Below Average [1 + (1 - 1.05)]

Premium/Discount Factor: 1.05 x

Financial Risk Below Average [1 + (1 - 1.05)]

Premium/Discount Factor: 1.05 x

Earnings Predictability Below Average [1 + (1 - 1.05)]

Premium/Discount Factor: 1.05 =

Adjusted Fair Value PE 5% 10.66

Enter Ticker Refresh CLEAR

P/E Exp EPS Grwth Rate Dividend Yield Add'l P/E Points

7.00 0% 0.0% 0.0

7.65 1% 0.1% 0.5

8.30 2% 0.5% 0.5

8.95 3% 1.0% 1.0

9.60 4% 1.5% 1.5

10.25 5% 2.0% 2.0

10.90 6% 2.5% 2.5

11.55 7% 3.0% 3.0

12.20 8% 3.5% 3.5

12.85 9% 4.0% 4.0

13.50 10% 4.5% 4.5

14.15 11% 5.0% 5.0

14.80 12% 5.5% 5.5

15.45 13% 6.0% 6.0

16.10 14% 6.5% 6.5

16.75 15% 10.0% 10.0

17.40 16%

17.90 17%

18.40 18%

18.90 19%

19.40 20%

19.90 21%

20.40 22%

20.90 23%

21.40 24%

21.90 25%

∆0.65

∆0.50

Page 12: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc. Shares Out. Main. Capex Normalized Income Discount Rate R&D Years SG&A %

(AAPL)939.06

939.06 $6,000.00 $40,000.00 25%

2/18/2013 $6,000.00 $40,000.00

Figures in Millions except per share values

Current Price EPV Net Reproduction Value EPV MOS NCAV 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low

$460.16 $442.94 $123.39 0.0% ($6.32) $705.07 $435.00

Asset Valuation Section EPV Valuation Section

Data: Asset Valuation EPV > Net Repro Value = Moat exists

Shares Outstanding 939.1 TTM Free Cash Flow 46,300.0$ EPV = Net Repro Value = No Moat

Balance Sheet Assets 196,088.0$ Avg Normalized Income 24,154.5$ EPV < Net Repro Value = Value Destroyer

Adjusted Assets 196,088.0$ Med Normalized Income 22,956.9$

Total Liabilities 68,742.0$ Avg Adj. Income 5 yrs 20,460.3$

Total Equity 127,346.0$ TTM Adjusted Income 44,543.2$

Average SGA % 8.6%

Marketing/Brand Value 13,504.6$ Data: EPV

R&D Value 4,435.2$ Cost of Capital 9.0%

Cash Needed for Business 1,646.9$ Normalized Adjusted Income 40,000.0$

Interest Bearing Debt -$ Average Maintenance Capex 6,000.0$

Non Interest Bearing Debt 61,468.0$ Interest Bearing Debt -$

Excess Cash 36,689.8$ 1% of sales 1,646.9$

Cash & Equiv 39,820.0$

Calculation: Asset Valuation Cash - Debt 38,173.1$

Total Per Share Shares 939.06

Tangible BV 121,503$ 129.39$

Adjusted BV 127,346$ 135.61$ Calculation: EPVNCAV (5,933)$ (6.32)$ Cost of Capital Rates EPV Per Share + Cash - Debt Per Share

Reprod. Cost of Assets 214,028$ 227.92$ 5% 680,000.0$ 724.13$ 718,173.1$ 764.78$

Reprod. Cost of Assets BV 145,286$ 154.71$ 7% 485,714.3$ 517.23$ 523,887.4$ 557.88$ Total Net Reprod. Cost 115,870$ 123.39$ 9% 377,777.8$ 402.29$ 415,950.9$ 442.94$

11% 309,090.9$ 329.15$ 347,264.0$ 369.80$

13% 261,538.5$ 278.51$ 299,711.6$ 319.16$

Quarterly numbers based on: Q1Adjustments:

Assets Book Value Fixed BV Multiplier

Reproduction

Asset Value

Cash & Equivalents 16,154.0$ 16,154.0$

Marketable Securities 23,666.0$ 23,666.0$

Adjustments:

Liabilities & Equity Book Value Fixed BV Multiplier

Reproduction

Liability Value

Accounts Receivable 11,598.0$ 11,598.0$ Accounts Payable 26,398.0$ 26,398.0$

Other Receivable 9,936.0$ 9,936.0$ Accrued Expenses -$ -$

Net Receivables 21,534.0$ 21,534.0$ Accrued Liabilities 11,214.0$ 11,214.0$

Inventories: Raw Materials -$ Notes Payable/Short Term Debt -$ -$

Inventories: Work in Progress -$

Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital

Leases -$ -$

Inventories: Purchased Components -$ Other Current Liabilities 1,993.0$ 1,993.0$

Inventories: Finished Goods -$ Total Current Liabilities 39,605.0$ 39,605.0$

Inventories: Other 1,455.0$ Long-Term Debt -$ -$

Inventories -- Total 1,455.0$ 1,455.0$ Capital Lease Obligations -$ -$

Prepaid Expenses -$ -$ Deferred Income Taxes -$ -$

Current Defered Income Taxes 2,895.0$ 2,895.0$ Total Other Liabilities 21,863.0$ 21,863.0$

Other Current Assets 6,644.0$ 6,644.0$ Total Liabilities 68,742.0$ 68,742.0$

Total Current Assets 72,348.0$ 72,348.0$ Common Stock Equity 127,346.0$ 127,346.0$

Goodwill, Net 1,381.0$ 1,381.0$ Retained Earnings 109,567.0$ 109,567.0$

Intangibles, Net 4,462.0$ 4,462.0$ Total Capitalization 127,346.0$ 127,346.0$

Intangibles 5,843.0$ 5,843.0$ Total Equity 127,346.0$ 127,346.0$ Property/Plant/Equipment - Net 15,422.0$ 15,422.0$ Total Liabilities & Equity 196,088.0$ 196,088.0$

Other Long Term Assets, Total 102,475.0$ 102,475.0$ Total Assets 196,088.0$ 196,088.0$

9% 3

Values for Normalized Income

Enter Ticker Refresh CLEAR

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

Book Value Net ReproValue

EPV

Page 13: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

Apple Inc.

(AAPL)2/18/2013 Current Price NNWC NNWC % NCAV NCAV %

$460.16 -$12.83 0.0% $3.84 0.0%

Figures in Millions except per share values BV

BV

Multiplier Net Net Value

Cash & Equivalents 16,154.00$ 100% 39,820.00$

Marketable Securities 23,666.00$

Accounts Receivable 21,534.00$ 75%

Other Receivable -$

Receivables 21,534.00$ 16,150.50$

Inventories: Raw Materials -$ 50%

Inventories: Work in Progress -$

Inventories: Purchased Components -$

Inventories: Finished Goods -$

Inventories: Other 1,455.00$

Inventories -- Total 1,455.00$ 727.50$

Current Assets - Total 72,348.00$ 72,348.00$

Total Assets 196,088.00$ 196,088.00$

Total Liabilities 68,742.00$ 68,742.00$ Shares Outstanding 939.06 939.06

Total ($m) Per Share

Total Current Assets 72,348.00$ 77.04$

Market Cap & Share Price 432.1B 460.16$

Book Value 127,346.00$ 135.61$

Net Net Working Capital (12,044.00)$ (12.83)$

Discount to NNWC 0%

Net Current Asset Value 3,606.00$ 3.84$

Discount to NCAV 0%

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Page 14: AAPL Reverse Valuation with Old School Value

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