AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

14
Author - Yellow highlighted fields are user input fields. Enter ticker in the Summary tab only. - Use yellow fields to override the default values without messing up formulas and accidently saving incorrect values - If a graph is squashed or looks out of place, zoom in and zoom out to refresh the view. - Press F9 to start calculations. Automatic formula calculations have been turned off in the excel menu to improve start speed and convenience. - Protected sheets do not have any passwords. Simply unprotect it. - Summary page provides a quick overview of all valuation methods and important graphs and numbers. Easy to add more or less yourself. - DCF Valuation is based on discounted cash flow. Important company fundamental metrics included. - Useful for companies with either 5yr or 10yrs of operating history - Use 5yr version if there has been a recent turnaround or a major event changing the fundamentals of the business - Use 10yr version for stable, cash cows such as KO or JNJ. You can even use it for stable consistent small caps - Adjust user growth, discount rate, FCF override, terminal rate (default 3%) - Price vs Value tab displays only the DCF intrinsic value compared to the historical stock price. (Thinking of how to add Graham intrinsic value and EPV to the graph) - Graham Intrinsic Value is based on Ben Graham's formula defined in the Intelligent Investor Intrisic Value = "normal" earnings x (8.5 + (2 x expected 5 yr growth)) x (4.4/20yr A corp bond) - Use for companies where FCF is erratic such as cyclicals or short history companies. - Remember that earnings are usually inflated. Companies may overstate earnings by hiding some numbers in there but they will never understate earnings on purpose. - Which means that the value you get with the Graham equation will be higher than normal. - Use high margin of safety (MOS) - Adjust user growth - EPV is based on Bruce Greenwald's book. http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/book-reviews/greenwald-earnings-power-value-investing-epv/ - Detailed instructions on how to use the spreadsheet with a rundown of Microsoft http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/stock-analysis/earnings-power-value-epv-valuation-microsoft/ - To explain it here, I would have to write out the entire book again. Please read it yourself to fully understand it. - "Adjust +/-" column is for adding or subtracting values from the stated numbers - "Multiplier" is to select what % you want to consider it. e.g. intangibles usually = 0% - Select the pinkish cell to select either data from MSN or ADVFN - Cell P47, select either 3 or 4 years of R&D you want to include into the valuation - EPV section row 66, include or exclude extraordinary items to EBIT - Read the comments to see references and explanations from the book - Competitors tab allows you to view 6 companies side by side - Charts tab shows different performance graphs of the companies - Assessment tab is a checklist that you should try to folllow before making investment decisions. - You should at least be able to draw up the spider graph Jae Jun | Old School Value All spreadsheet related questions and support is now handled only through the forum. http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/forum/spreadsheet-installation/ How to Use Nothing on Old School Value, related pages, emails, or other communications by the author, either written or oral, are intended to be a recommendation to either buy, hold, or sell any specific security or group of securities. Likewise, nothing herein should be construed as an endorsement of any financial adviser, investment manager, commercial information provider, transaction service, or brokerage firm. The findings from this spreadsheet is merely a start to a means of further research and uncovering a great business and investment. Old School Value holds no responsibility for any investment whatsoever. Spreadsheet Installation Related - Refer to the manual and ask for help on the forums to reduce repetitive questions and answers.The manual contains every possible problem related to the spreadsheet. - When requesting help, please try to find out whether it is a spreadsheet issue or excel issue. PDF: http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/intrinsic-value-spreadsheets/installation-troubleshooting-guide/ Forum: http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/forum/spreadsheet-installation/ Disclaimer

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http://www.oldschoolvalue.comStock valuation of aapl to find the intrinsic value. Free stock value spreadsheets available.

Transcript of AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Page 1: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Author

- Yellow highlighted fields are user input fields. Enter ticker in the Summary tab only.

- Use yellow fields to override the default values without messing up formulas and accidently saving incorrect values

- If a graph is squashed or looks out of place, zoom in and zoom out to refresh the view.

- Press F9 to start calculations. Automatic formula calculations have been turned off in the excel menu to improve start speed and convenience.

- Protected sheets do not have any passwords. Simply unprotect it.

- Summary page provides a quick overview of all valuation methods and important graphs and numbers. Easy to add more or less yourself.

- DCF Valuation is based on discounted cash flow. Important company fundamental metrics included.

- Useful for companies with either 5yr or 10yrs of operating history

- Use 5yr version if there has been a recent turnaround or a major event changing the fundamentals of the business

- Use 10yr version for stable, cash cows such as KO or JNJ. You can even use it for stable consistent small caps

- Adjust user growth, discount rate, FCF override, terminal rate (default 3%)

- Price vs Value tab displays only the DCF intrinsic value compared to the historical stock price. (Thinking of how to add Graham intrinsic value and

EPV to the graph)

- Graham Intrinsic Value is based on Ben Graham's formula defined in the Intelligent Investor

Intrisic Value = "normal" earnings x (8.5 + (2 x expected 5 yr growth)) x (4.4/20yr A corp bond)

- Use for companies where FCF is erratic such as cyclicals or short history companies.

- Remember that earnings are usually inflated.

Companies may overstate earnings by hiding some numbers in there but they will never understate earnings on purpose.

- Which means that the value you get with the Graham equation will be higher than normal.

- Use high margin of safety (MOS)

- Adjust user growth

- EPV is based on Bruce Greenwald's book.

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/book-reviews/greenwald-earnings-power-value-investing-epv/

- Detailed instructions on how to use the spreadsheet with a rundown of Microsoft

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/stock-analysis/earnings-power-value-epv-valuation-microsoft/

- To explain it here, I would have to write out the entire book again. Please read it yourself to fully understand it.

- "Adjust +/-" column is for adding or subtracting values from the stated numbers

- "Multiplier" is to select what % you want to consider it. e.g. intangibles usually = 0%

- Select the pinkish cell to select either data from MSN or ADVFN

- Cell P47, select either 3 or 4 years of R&D you want to include into the valuation

- EPV section row 66, include or exclude extraordinary items to EBIT

- Read the comments to see references and explanations from the book

- Competitors tab allows you to view 6 companies side by side

- Charts tab shows different performance graphs of the companies

- Assessment tab is a checklist that you should try to folllow before making investment decisions.

- You should at least be able to draw up the spider graph

Jae Jun | Old School ValueAll spreadsheet related questions and support is now handled only through the forum.

http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/forum/spreadsheet-installation/

How to Use

Nothing on Old School Value, related pages, emails, or other communications by the author, either written or oral, are intended to be a

recommendation to either buy, hold, or sell any specific security or group of securities. Likewise, nothing herein should be construed as an

endorsement of any financial adviser, investment manager, commercial information provider, transaction service, or brokerage firm.

The findings from this spreadsheet is merely a start to a means of further research and uncovering a great business and investment. Old

School Value holds no responsibility for any investment whatsoever.

Spreadsheet Installation Related - Refer to the manual and ask for help on the forums to reduce repetitive questions and answers.The manual contains every possible problem

related to the spreadsheet.

- When requesting help, please try to find out whether it is a spreadsheet issue or excel issue.

PDF: http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/intrinsic-value-spreadsheets/installation-troubleshooting-guide/

Forum: http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/forum/spreadsheet-installation/

Disclaimer

Page 2: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Company Name ticker

Apple Inc www.oldschoolvalue.com

10/1/2009 Figures in Millions except per share values

Current Price

Total Net Reprod. Cost 10.57$ EPV 68.52$ Graham Price 102.87$ DCF Price 161.07$ 183.62$

Reprod. Cost of Assets BV 36.95$ Normalized Income 3,692.87$ Growth Rate 30% Growth Rate 20%

Tangible BV 30.26$ Discount Rate 9% Normalized EPS 2.03$ Discount Rate 9%

NNWC 7.31$ Margin of Safety 0% Margin of Safety 0% Margin of Safety 0%

Market Cap (millions) 166,040 Quick Ratio (MRQ) 2.09 Gross (TTM) 35.49 Operating (TTM) 19.98 Net Profit (TTM) 14.97

52-Week High 188.90 Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.11 Gross - 5 Yr. Avg. 31.83 Operating - 5 Yr. Avg. 15.4 Net Profit - 5 Yr. Avg. 12.15

52-Week Low 78.20 LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0 EBITD (TTM) 21.84 Pre-Tax (TTM) 21.2

% off 52-Week Low 137.0% Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0 EBITD - 5 Yr. Avg. 16.82 Pre-Tax - 5 Yr. Avg. 17.24

P/E Ratio (TTM) 32.4 Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 11.7 ROA (TTM) 12.96 Revenue/Employee (TTM) 1080063

Price to Sales (TTM) 4.8 Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 4.8 ROA - 5 Yr. Avg. 13.96 Net Income/Employee (TTM) 161719

Price to Book (MRQ) 6.41 Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 39.23 ROI (TTM) 19.18 Receivable Turnover (TTM) 16.12

Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 6.56 EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 13.89 ROI - 5 Yr Avg 21.57 Inventory Turnover (TTM) 48.21

Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 28.56 EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 11.88 ROE (TTM) 22.74 Asset Turnover (TTM) 0.87

Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 16.31 EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 124.7 ROE - 5 Yr. Avg. 24

Enterprise Value/Revenue (TTM) 4.1 Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Grwth 48.87

Enterprise Value/EBITDA (TTM) 18.862

Multi-Year Performance

2003-2007 2004-2008 2003-2006 2004-2007 2005-2008 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008 Median

Shareholder Equity 36.3% 42.5% 33.6% 41.8% 40.7% 33.8% 40.3% 38.8% 44.7% 40.3%

Free Cash Flow 261.6% 102.6% 342.3% 130.9% 49.8% 734.7% 149.6% 56.7% 64.6% 130.9%

CROIC 14.7% 15.7% 9.7% 15.2% 16.3% 4.7% 14.7% 15.7% 16.9% 15.2%

FCF/Sales 8.1% 9.0% 5.5% 8.5% 10.9% 3.0% 8.1% 9.0% 12.8% 8.5%

ROA 13.6% 13.8% 8.7% 13.7% 14.4% 3.7% 13.6% 13.8% 14.9% 13.7%

ROE 21.3% 22.8% 13.6% 22.0% 25.0% 5.9% 21.3% 22.8% 27.2% 22.0%

Revenue Growth 40.2% 40.7% 46.0% 42.6% 32.6% 49.8% 52.7% 31.3% 29.7% 40.7%

Gross Margin 29.0% 29.0% 28.2% 29.0% 31.5% 27.5% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0% 29.0%

Operating Margin 11.8% 12.7% 7.9% 12.3% 15.5% 3.9% 11.8% 12.7% 18.4% 12.3%

Net Margin 9.6% 10.3% 6.5% 9.9% 12.4% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 9.9%

Earnings Growth 150.4% 96.4% 183.1% 121.8% 50.9% 295.0% 151.1% 58.7% 53.7% 121.8%

Cash from Ops Growth 108.6% 79.0% 97.3% 80.3% 55.8% 196.2% 54.2% 46.9% 107.9% 80.3%

DCF ValuationGraham ValuationAsset Valuation EPV Valuation

Historical Stock Price Vs Intrinsic Value Per Share

Financial Strength Margins & Profitability

Valuation Ratios Growth Stats

AAPL

Management Effective Efficiency

Key Statistics

Apple Inc.designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, portable digital music players, and mobile communication devices and sells a variety of related software, services, peripherals, and networking

solutions. The Company sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, and third-party wholesalers, resellers, and value-added resellers. In addition, the Company sells a

variety of third-party Macintosh (Mac), iPod and iPhone compatible products, including application software, printers, storage devices, speakers, headphones, and various other accessories and peripherals through its

online and retail stores, , and digital content through the iTunes Store. It sells to consumer, small and mid-sized business (SMB), education, enterprise, government, and creative customers.

0

50

100

150

200

250

1/21/2003 7/21/2003 1/21/2004 7/21/2004 1/21/2005 7/21/2005 1/21/2006 7/21/2006 1/21/2007 7/21/2007 1/21/2008 7/21/2008 1/21/2009 7/21/2009

Historical Price

Intrinsic Value

Buy Price

Page 3: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Margin Percentages

Free Cash Flow vs Tangible Shareholder Equity Trend Efficiency & Profitability

Sales, AR, Inventory CAPEX vs PPE

27.65% 27.13%

23.03%

27.92% 27.52% 27.29%29.02% 28.98%

33.97% 34.31%

5.85% 6.54%

-6.41%

0.30% -0.02%

3.94%

11.84% 12.70%

18.37% 19.32%

9.80% 9.85%

-0.47%1.13% 1.11%

3.33%

9.58% 10.30%

14.56% 14.88%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Gross Margin

Operating Margin

Net Margin

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

CROIC

FCF/Sales

ROA

ROE

$(5,000.0)

$-

$5,000.0

$10,000.0

$15,000.0

$20,000.0

$25,000.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

FCF

Shareholder Equity

$-

$5,000.0

$10,000.0

$15,000.0

$20,000.0

$25,000.0

$30,000.0

$35,000.0

$40,000.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM

Sales

Accts Receivable

Inventory

$-

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM

Last 6 yrs

Last 5 yrs

Last 4 yrs

Last 3 yrs

Last 2 yrs

Last 1 yr

PPE

Page 4: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Company Name

Apple Inc www.oldschoolvalue.com AAPL10/1/2009 Figures in Millions except per share values

AAPL 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM

Revenue 6,134.0$ 7,983.0$ 5,363.0$ 5,742.0$ 6,207.0$ 8,279.0$ 13,931.0$ 19,315.0$ 24,006.0$ 32,479.0$ 34,562.0$

% change from last year 23.2% -48.9% 6.6% 7.5% 25.0% 40.6% 27.9% 19.5% 26.1% 6.0%

COGS 4,438.0$ 5,817.0$ 4,128.0$ 4,139.0$ 4,499.0$ 6,020.0$ 9,888.0$ 13,717.0$ 15,852.0$ 21,334.0$ 22,297.0$

COGS (%) 72.4% 72.9% 77.0% 72.1% 72.5% 72.7% 71.0% 71.0% 66.0% 65.7% 64.5%

Gross Profit 1,696.0$ 2,166.0$ 1,235.0$ 1,603.0$ 1,708.0$ 2,259.0$ 4,043.0$ 5,598.0$ 8,154.0$ 11,145.0$ 12,265.0$

Gross Profit (%) 27.6% 27.1% 23.0% 27.9% 27.5% 27.3% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0% 34.3% 35.5%

SG&A 996.0$ 1,166.0$ 1,138.0$ 1,111.0$ 1,212.0$ 1,421.0$ 1,859.0$ 2,433.0$ 2,963.0$ 3,761.0$ 4,085.0$

SG&A (%) 16.2% 14.6% 21.2% 19.3% 19.5% 17.2% 13.3% 12.6% 12.3% 11.6% 11.8%

R&D 314.0$ 380.0$ 441.0$ 447.0$ 471.0$ 489.0$ 534.0$ 712.0$ 782.0$ 1,109.0$ 1,273.0$

R&D (%) 5.1% 4.8% 8.2% 7.8% 7.6% 5.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7%

Other 27.0$ 98.0$ -$ 28.0$ 26.0$ 23.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Other (%) 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Operating Income 359.0$ 522.0$ (344.0)$ 17.0$ (1.0)$ 326.0$ 1,650.0$ 2,453.0$ 4,409.0$ 6,275.0$ 6,907.0$

Operating Income (%) 5.9% 6.5% -6.4% 0.3% 0.0% 3.9% 11.8% 12.7% 18.4% 19.3% 20.0%

Net Int Inc & Other 317.0$ 570.0$ 292.0$ 70.0$ 93.0$ 57.0$ 165.0$ 365.0$ 599.0$ 620.0$ 421.0$

Earnings Before Taxes 676.0$ 1,092.0$ (52.0)$ 87.0$ 92.0$ 383.0$ 1,815.0$ 2,818.0$ 5,008.0$ 6,895.0$ 7,328.0$

Income Taxes 75.0$ 306.0$ (15.0)$ 22.0$ 24.0$ 107.0$ 480.0$ 829.0$ 1,512.0$ 2,061.0$ 2,153.0$

Tax Rate % 11.1% 28.0% 28.8% 25.3% 26.1% 27.9% 26.4% 29.4% 30.2% 29.9% 29.4%

Earnings After Taxes 601.0$ 786.0$ (37.0)$ 65.0$ 68.0$ 276.0$ 1,335.0$ 1,989.0$ 3,496.0$ 4,834.0$ 5,175.0$

Acctg Changes -$ -$ 12.0$ -$ 1.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Disc Operations -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Ext Items -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Net Income 601.0$ 786.0$ (25.0)$ 65.0$ 69.0$ 276.0$ 1,335.0$ 1,989.0$ 3,496.0$ 4,834.0$ 5,175.0$

Net Income (%) 9.8% 9.8% -0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 14.9% 15.0%

Diluted EPS, Cont Ops$ 0.9$ 1.1$ (0.1)$ 0.1$ 0.1$ 0.4$ 1.6$ 2.3$ 3.9$ 5.4$ 5.7$

Diluted EPS$ 0.9$ 1.1$ (0.0)$ 0.1$ 0.1$ 0.4$ 1.6$ 2.3$ 3.9$ 5.4$ 5.7$

Shares 696 720 691 723 726 774 856 877 889 902 904

Cash and Equiv 1,326.0$ 1,191.0$ 2,310.0$ 2,252.0$ 3,396.0$ 2,969.0$ 3,491.0$ 6,392.0$ 9,352.0$ 11,875.0$ 5,605.0$

Short-Term Investments 1,900.0$ 2,836.0$ 2,026.0$ 2,085.0$ 1,170.0$ 2,495.0$ 4,770.0$ 3,718.0$ 6,034.0$ 12,615.0$ 18,617.0$

Accts Rec 681.0$ 953.0$ 466.0$ 565.0$ 766.0$ 774.0$ 895.0$ 1,252.0$ 1,637.0$ 2,422.0$ 2,686.0$

% change from last year 28.5% -104.5% 17.5% 26.2% 1.0% 13.5% 28.5% 23.5% 32.4% 9.8%

Inventory 20.0$ 33.0$ 11.0$ 45.0$ 56.0$ 101.0$ 165.0$ 270.0$ 346.0$ 509.0$ 380.0$

% change from last year 39.4% -200.0% 75.6% 19.6% 44.6% 38.8% 38.9% 22.0% 32.0% -33.9%

Other Current Assets 358.0$ 414.0$ 330.0$ 441.0$ 499.0$ 716.0$ 979.0$ 2,877.0$ 4,587.0$ 7,269.0$ 7,882.0$

Total Current Assets 4,285.0$ 5,427.0$ 5,143.0$ 5,388.0$ 5,887.0$ 7,055.0$ 10,300.0$ 14,509.0$ 21,956.0$ 34,690.0$ 35,170.0$

Net PP&E 318.0$ 313.0$ 564.0$ 621.0$ 669.0$ 707.0$ 817.0$ 1,281.0$ 1,832.0$ 2,455.0$ 2,653.0$

Intangibles -$ -$ -$ 119.0$ 109.0$ 97.0$ 96.0$ 177.0$ 337.0$ 492.0$ 466.0$

Other Long-Term Assets 558.0$ 1,063.0$ 314.0$ 170.0$ 150.0$ 191.0$ 338.0$ 1,238.0$ 1,222.0$ 1,935.0$ 9,851.0$

Total Assets 5,161.0$ 6,803.0$ 6,021.0$ 6,298.0$ 6,815.0$ 8,050.0$ 11,551.0$ 17,205.0$ 25,347.0$ 39,572.0$ 48,140.0$

Accts Payable 812.0$ 1,157.0$ 801.0$ 911.0$ 1,154.0$ 1,451.0$ 1,779.0$ 3,390.0$ 4,970.0$ 5,520.0$ 4,854.0$

Short-Term Debt -$ -$ -$ -$ 304.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Taxes Payable -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Accrued Liabilities 737.0$ 776.0$ 717.0$ 747.0$ 899.0$ 1,229.0$ 1,705.0$ 3,081.0$ 4,329.0$ 8,572.0$ 3,338.0$

Other Short-Term

Liabilities -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 8,469.0$

Total Current Liabilities 1,549.0$ 1,933.0$ 1,518.0$ 1,658.0$ 2,357.0$ 2,680.0$ 3,484.0$ 6,471.0$ 9,299.0$ 14,092.0$ 16,661.0$

Long-Term Debt 300.0$ 300.0$ 317.0$ 316.0$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Other Long-Term

Liabilities 208.0$ 463.0$ 266.0$ 229.0$ 235.0$ 294.0$ 601.0$ 750.0$ 1,516.0$ 4,450.0$ 5,591.0$

Total Liabilities 2,057.0$ 2,696.0$ 2,101.0$ 2,203.0$ 2,592.0$ 2,974.0$ 4,085.0$ 7,221.0$ 10,815.0$ 18,542.0$ 22,252.0$

Total Equity 3,104.0$ 4,107.0$ 3,920.0$ 4,095.0$ 4,223.0$ 5,076.0$ 7,466.0$ 9,984.0$ 14,532.0$ 21,030.0$ 25,888.0$

Total Liabilities & Equity 5,161.0$ 6,803.0$ 6,021.0$ 6,298.0$ 6,815.0$ 8,050.0$ 11,551.0$ 17,205.0$ 25,347.0$ 39,572.0$ 48,140.0$

Net Income 601.0$ 786.0$ (25.0)$ 65.0$ 69.0$ 276.0$ 1,335.0$ 1,989.0$ 3,496.0$ 4,834.0$ 5,175.0$

Depr & Amort 85.0$ 84.0$ 102.0$ 118.0$ 113.0$ 150.0$ 179.0$ 225.0$ 317.0$ 473.0$ 640.0$

Deferred Taxes (35.0)$ 163.0$ (36.0)$ (34.0)$ (11.0)$ 20.0$ 52.0$ 53.0$ 78.0$ -$ -$

Other 147.0$ (207.0)$ 144.0$ (60.0)$ 118.0$ 488.0$ 969.0$ (47.0)$ 1,579.0$ 4,289.0$ 5,529.0$

Cash from Operations 798.0$ 826.0$ 185.0$ 89.0$ 289.0$ 934.0$ 2,535.0$ 2,220.0$ 5,470.0$ 9,596.0$ 11,344.0$

Cap Ex (47.0)$ (107.0)$ (232.0)$ (174.0)$ (164.0)$ (176.0)$ (260.0)$ (657.0)$ (735.0)$ (1,091.0)$ (1,088.0)$

Purchase of Business -$ -$ -$ (52.0)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Other (917.0)$ (823.0)$ 1,124.0$ (26.0)$ 992.0$ (1,312.0)$ (2,296.0)$ 1,014.0$ (2,514.0)$ (7,098.0)$ (14,568.0)$

Cash from Investing (964.0)$ (930.0)$ 892.0$ (252.0)$ 828.0$ (1,488.0)$ (2,556.0)$ 357.0$ (3,249.0)$ (8,189.0)$ (15,656.0)$

Net Issuance of Stock 11.0$ (31.0)$ 42.0$ 105.0$ 27.0$ 427.0$ 543.0$ (37.0)$ 362.0$ 483.0$ 360.0$

Net Issuance of Debt -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ (300.0)$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Dividends -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Other -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 361.0$ 377.0$ 633.0$ 184.0$

Cash from Financing 11.0$ (31.0)$ 42.0$ 105.0$ 27.0$ 127.0$ 543.0$ 324.0$ 739.0$ 1,116.0$ 544.0$

Currency Adj -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

Change in Cash (155.0)$ (135.0)$ 1,119.0$ (58.0)$ 1,144.0$ (427.0)$ 522.0$ 2,901.0$ 2,960.0$ 2,523.0$ (3,768.0)$

Cash from Operations 798.0$ 826.0$ 185.0$ 89.0$ 289.0$ 934.0$ 2,535.0$ 2,220.0$ 5,470.0$ 9,596.0$ 11,344.0$

Cap Ex (47.0)$ (107.0)$ (232.0)$ (174.0)$ (164.0)$ (176.0)$ (260.0)$ (657.0)$ (735.0)$ (1,091.0)$ (1,088.0)$

Free Cash Flow 639.0$ 763.0$ (155.0)$ 9.0$ 18.0$ 250.0$ 1,254.0$ 1,557.0$ 3,078.0$ 4,216.0$ 4,727.0$

Book Value Per Share 4.46$ 5.70$ 5.67$ 5.66$ 5.82$ 6.56$ 8.72$ 11.38$ 16.35$ 23.31$ 28.64$

Income Statement

Operating Expenses

Other Income and Expense

Balance Sheet

Assets

Cash Flows From Financing Activities

ticker

Financial Data

Free Cash Flow

Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity

Cash Flows Statement

Cash Flows From Operating Activities

Cash Flows From Investing Activities

Page 5: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

10/1/2009 User Growth www.oldschoolvalue.com Figures in Millions except per share values

20.00%

Desired MOS Growth Discount % Price Share Value Buy under Actual D/C % 52Wk High 52Wk Low

50% 20.0% 9.0% 185.35$ 161.07$ 80.53$ 0% $188.90 $78.20

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Revenue 6,134.0$ 7,983.0$ 5,363.0$ 5,742.0$ 6,207.0$ 8,279.0$ 13,931.0$ 19,315.0$ 24,006.0$ 32,479.0$

Gross Profit 1,696.0$ 2,166.0$ 1,235.0$ 1,603.0$ 1,708.0$ 2,259.0$ 4,043.0$ 5,598.0$ 8,154.0$ 11,145.0$

Operating Income 359.0$ 522.0$ (344.0)$ 17.0$ (1.0)$ 326.0$ 1,650.0$ 2,453.0$ 4,409.0$ 6,275.0$

Net Income 601.0$ 786.0$ (25.0)$ 65.0$ 69.0$ 276.0$ 1,335.0$ 1,989.0$ 3,496.0$ 4,834.0$

Diluted EPS 0.9$ 1.1$ (0.0)$ 0.1$ 0.1$ 0.4$ 1.6$ 2.3$ 3.9$ 5.4$

Cash from Operations 798.0$ 826.0$ 185.0$ 89.0$ 289.0$ 934.0$ 2,535.0$ 2,220.0$ 5,470.0$ 9,596.0$

Free Cash Flow 639.0$ 763.0$ (155.0)$ 9.0$ 18.0$ 250.0$ 1,254.0$ 1,557.0$ 3,078.0$ 4,216.0$

Capex 47.0$ 107.0$ 232.0$ 174.0$ 164.0$ 176.0$ 260.0$ 657.0$ 735.0$ 1,091.0$

Current Assets 4,285.0$ 5,427.0$ 5,143.0$ 5,388.0$ 5,887.0$ 7,055.0$ 10,300.0$ 14,509.0$ 21,956.0$ 34,690.0$

Current Liabilities 1,549.0$ 1,933.0$ 1,518.0$ 1,658.0$ 2,357.0$ 2,680.0$ 3,484.0$ 6,471.0$ 9,299.0$ 14,092.0$

Total Liabilities 2,057.0$ 2,696.0$ 2,101.0$ 2,203.0$ 2,592.0$ 2,974.0$ 4,085.0$ 7,221.0$ 10,815.0$ 18,542.0$

Tangible Shareholder Equity 3,104.0$ 4,107.0$ 3,920.0$ 3,976.0$ 4,114.0$ 4,979.0$ 7,370.0$ 9,807.0$ 14,195.0$ 20,538.0$

Gross Margin 27.65% 27.13% 23.03% 27.92% 27.52% 27.29% 29.02% 28.98% 33.97% 34.31%

Operating Margin 5.85% 6.54% -6.41% 0.30% -0.02% 3.94% 11.84% 12.70% 18.37% 19.32%

Net Margin 9.80% 9.85% -0.47% 1.13% 1.11% 3.33% 9.58% 10.30% 14.56% 14.88%

Current Assets>1.5 times 276.6% 280.8% 338.8% 325.0% 249.8% 263.2% 295.6% 224.2% 236.1% 246.2%

CROIC 17.7% 15.7% -3.4% 0.2% 0.4% 4.7% 15.7% 14.7% 19.6% 16.9%

FCF/Sales 10.4% 9.6% -2.9% 0.2% 0.3% 3.0% 9.0% 8.1% 12.8% 13.0%

Inventory Turnover 221.9 176.3 375.3 92.0 80.3 59.6 59.9 50.8 45.8 41.9

Return On Assets (ROA) 12.72% 13.14% -0.39% 1.06% 1.05% 3.71% 13.62% 13.83% 16.43% 14.89%

Retun On Equity (ROE) 27.04% 22.51% -0.63% 1.62% 1.66% 5.94% 21.29% 22.80% 28.52% 27.19%

Debt to Equity 66.3% 65.6% 53.6% 53.8% 61.4% 58.6% 54.7% 72.3% 74.4% 88.2%

Capitalization Ratio 8.8% 6.8% 7.5% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

FCF to Debt 31.1% 28.3% -7.4% 0.4% 0.7% 8.4% 30.7% 21.6% 28.5% 22.7%

2003-2007 2004-2008 2003-2006 2004-2007 2005-2008 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008 Median

Shareholder Equity 36.3% 42.5% 33.6% 41.8% 40.7% 33.8% 40.3% 38.8% 44.7% 40.3%

Free Cash Flow 261.6% 102.6% 342.3% 130.9% 49.8% 734.7% 149.6% 56.7% 64.6% 130.9%

CROIC 14.7% 15.7% 9.7% 15.2% 16.3% 4.7% 14.7% 15.7% 16.9% 15.2%

FCF/Sales 8.1% 9.0% 5.5% 8.5% 10.9% 3.0% 8.1% 9.0% 12.8% 8.5%

ROA 13.6% 13.8% 8.7% 13.7% 14.4% 3.7% 13.6% 13.8% 14.9% 13.7%

ROE 21.3% 22.8% 13.6% 22.0% 25.0% 5.9% 21.3% 22.8% 27.2% 22.0%

Revenue Growth 40.2% 40.7% 46.0% 42.6% 32.6% 49.8% 52.7% 31.3% 29.7% 40.7%

Gross Margin 29.0% 29.0% 28.2% 29.0% 31.5% 27.5% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0% 29.0%

Operating Margin 11.8% 12.7% 7.9% 12.3% 15.5% 3.9% 11.8% 12.7% 18.4% 12.3%

Net Margin 9.6% 10.3% 6.5% 9.9% 12.4% 3.3% 9.6% 10.3% 14.6% 9.9%

Earnings Growth 150.4% 96.4% 183.1% 121.8% 50.9% 295.0% 151.1% 58.7% 53.7% 121.8%

Cash from Ops Growth 108.6% 79.0% 97.3% 80.3% 55.8% 196.2% 54.2% 46.9% 107.9% 80.3%

Growing at 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

20% 5,059$ 6,071$ 7,285$ $8,173.89 $9,645.19 $11,381.32 $13,429.96 $14,013.60 $16,283.80 $18,921.78

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

19,489.43$ 20,074.11$ 20,676.33$ 21,296.62$ 21,935.52$ 22,593.59$ 23,271.40$ 23,969.54$ 24,688.63$ 25,429.28$

Total Value

Shares Outstanding 893.71

Per Share Value

Margin of Safety

Purchase Price

Current Price

Actual Discount

Enterprise Value

Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Company Name ticker

161.07$

Free Cash Flow and Tangible Shareholder Equity TrendCompany Valuation

Balance Sheet Data

Cash Flow Data

143,948$

AAPL

Efficiency & Profitability

Multi-Year Performance

50%

18.859

80.53$

185.35$

893.71

0%

141,840.00$

Apple Inc

Debt Related

Financial Data

Projection of future Free Cash Flow

Income Sheet Data

Margins

User Input Params

$639.0 $763.0 $(155.0) $9.0 $18.0 $250.0 $1,254.0 $1,557.0 $3,078.0

$4,216.0 $3,104.0 $4,107.0 $3,920.0 $3,976.0 $4,114.0 $4,979.0 $7,370.0

$9,807.0

$14,195.0

$20,538.0

$(5,000.0)

$-

$5,000.0

$10,000.0

$15,000.0

$20,000.0

$25,000.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

FCF Shareholder Equity

Page 6: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Sales, Receivables, Inventory

Efficiency & Profitability Debt

Multi-Year Performance Graph

Margin Percentages

27.65% 27.13%

23.03%

27.92% 27.52% 27.29%29.02% 28.98%

33.97% 34.31%

5.85% 6.54%

-6.41%

0.30% -0.02%

3.94%

11.84% 12.70%

18.37% 19.32%

9.80% 9.85%

-0.47%1.13% 1.11%

3.33%

9.58% 10.30%

14.56% 14.88%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Gross Margin

Operating Margin

Net Margin

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

CROIC FCF/Sales ROA ROE

$-

$5,000.0

$10,000.0

$15,000.0

$20,000.0

$25,000.0

$30,000.0

$35,000.0

$40,000.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM

Sales Accts Receivable Inventory

29.0% 29.0% 28.2% 29.0% 31.5% 27.5% 29.0% 29.0% 34.0%

11.8% 12.7% 7.9% 12.3% 15.5%3.9% 11.8% 12.7%

18.4%9.6% 10.3%6.5%

9.9%12.4%

3.3%9.6% 10.3%

14.6%

150.4%

96.4%

183.1%

121.8%

50.9%

295.0%

151.1%

58.7%53.7%

13.6%

13.8%

8.7%

13.7%

14.4%

3.7%

13.6%

13.8%14.9%

21.3%

22.8%

13.6%

22.0%

25.0%

5.9%

21.3%

22.8%27.2%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

400.0%

2003-2007 2004-2008 2003-2006 2004-2007 2005-2008 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008

Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Earnings Growth ROA ROE

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Debt to Equity Capitalization Ratio FCF to Debt

Page 7: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Company Name

Apple Inc www.oldschoolvalue.com

Figures in Millions except per share values

Desired MOS Growth Discount % Price Share Value Buy under Actual D/C % 52Wk High 52Wk Low

50% 20.0% 9% 185.35$ 161.07$ 80.53$ 0% 188.90$ 78.20$

Historical Stock Price Vs Intrinsic Value Per Share

ticker

AAPL10/1/2009

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1/21/2003 7/21/2003 1/21/2004 7/21/2004 1/21/2005 7/21/2005 1/21/2006 7/21/2006 1/21/2007 7/21/2007 1/21/2008 7/21/2008 1/21/2009 7/21/2009

Historical Price Intrinsic Value Buy Price Linear (Historical Price)

Page 8: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

10/1/2009 User Growth Figures in Millions except per share values

30.00% www.oldschoolvalue.com

Desired MOS Growth Price Actual DC% Share Value Buy under P/B Ratio 9

66% 30.0% 183.62$ 0% 102.87$ 34.97$ 7.95

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0.90$ 1.09$ (0.04)$ 0.09$ 0.10$ 0.36$ 1.56$ 2.27$ 3.93$ 5.36$

2009 2010 2011 2012

2.99$ 3.92$ 5.13$ 5.56$

Median

2003-2007 2004-2008 2003-2006 2004-2007 2005-2008 2003-2005 2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008

Earnings Growth 150.4% 96.4% 183.1% 121.8% 50.9% 295.0% 151.1% 58.7% 53.7% 121.8%

EPS Weighted Average 1.64$ 2.70$ 1.07$ 2.03$ 3.28$ 0.67$ 1.40$ 2.59$ 3.85$ $2.0

2.03$

30.00%

6.26

23.31

7.95

158.71$

102.87$

66.00%

34.97$

185.35$

0%

Diluted EPS

Multi-Year Performance

Enterprise Value Per Share

Company Stats

Normal Earnings

Expected 5 Year Growth

20 yr A Corp Bond Rate

Actual Discount

Company Name ticker

Apple Inc AAPL

Earnings

User Input ParamsNet Net Working Capital

4.67$

Purchase Price

Current Price

Company Valuation

Per Share Value

Desired MOS

Book Value Per Share

Price to Book Ratio

$0.90 $1.09

$(0.04)

$0.09 $0.10 $0.36

$1.56

$2.27

$3.93

$5.36

$2.99

$3.92

$(1.00)

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

EPS

Linear (EPS)

Page 9: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Old School Value | http://www.oldschoolvalue.com

Company Name ticker

Apple Inc AAPLFigures in Millions except per share values

EPV Current Price MOS % Tangible BV NNWC

68.52$ 185.35$ 0% 30.26$ 7.31$

Quarterly numbers based on: 2009 Q3 Data Source

Statement Source Date: 22-Jul-09 MSN

Assets Book Value

Adjust

+/- Multiplier

Reproduction

Asset Value 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM

Cash & Equivalents 24,222.0$ 24,222.0$

CAPEX

(statements) 174.0$ 164.0$ 176.0$ 260.0$ 657.0$ 735.0$ 1,091.0$ 1,088.0$

Marketable Securities 18,617.0$ 18,617.0$ Last 6 yrs

Accounts Receivable - Gross 2,686.0$ 2,686.0$ Last 5 yrs

Other Receivable 1,494.0$ 1,494.0$ Last 4 yrs

Receivables 4,180.0$ 4,180.0$ Last 3 yrs 513.0$ 570.0$ 514.0$ 600.0$ 1,093.0$ 1,652.0$ 2,483.0$ 2,914.0$

Inventories: Raw Materials -$ Last 2 yrs 406.0$ 338.0$ 340.0$ 436.0$ 917.0$ 1,392.0$ 1,826.0$ 2,179.0$

Inventories: Work in Progress -$ Last 1 yr 174.0$ 164.0$ 176.0$ 260.0$ 657.0$ 735.0$ 1,091.0$ 1,088.0$

Inventories: Purchased

Components -$ PPE 621.0$ 669.0$ 707.0$ 817.0$ 1,281.0$ 1,832.0$ 2,455.0$ 2,653.0$

Inventories: Finished Goods -$ Sales 5,742.0$ 6,207.0$ 8,279.0$ 13,931.0$ 19,315.0$ 24,006.0$ 32,479.0$ 34,562.0$

Inventories: Other 380.0$ R&D 447.0$ 471.0$ 489.0$ 534.0$ 712.0$ 782.0$ 1,109.0$ 1,273.0$

Inventories -- Total 380.0$ 380.0$

Prepaid Expenses -$ -$

Current Defered Income Taxes 1,731.0$ 1,731.0$

Other Current Assets 6,388.0$ 6,388.0$

Total Current Assets 36,901.0$ 36,901.0$

Goodwill, Net 207.0$ 0% 0.0$

Intangibles, Net 370.0$ 0% 0.0$

Intangibles 577.0$ 0.0$

Property/Plant/Equipment - Net 2,653.0$ 2,653.0$

Long Term Investments 6,899.0$ 6,899.0$

Note Receivable - Long Term -$ -$

Other Long Term Assets, Total 2,841.0$ 2,841.0$

Total Assets 49,871.0$ 49,294.0$

Liabilities & Equity Book Value Corrected BV Multiplier

Reproduction

Asset Value

Accounts Payable 4,854.0$ 4,854.0$

Accrued Expenses 933.0$ 933.0$

Accrued Liabilities -$ -$

Notes Payable/Short Term Debt -$ -$ Total Per Share Shares Outstanding 893.7 893.71

Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital

Leases -$ -$ Tangible BV 27,042$ 30.26$

Balance Sheet Assets 49,871.0$

Other Current Liabilities 10,874.0$ 10,874.0$ Adjusted BV 27,042$ 30.26$ Adjusted Assets 49,294.0$

Total Current Liabilities 16,661.0$ 16,661.0$ NNWC 6,530$ 7.31$ Total Liabilities 22,252.0$

Long-Term Debt -$ -$

Reprod. Cost of

Assets 55,270$ 61.84$ Total Equity 27,619.0$

Capital Lease Obligations -$ -$

Reprod. Cost of

Assets BV 33,018$ 36.95$

Deferred Income Taxes 970.0$ 970.0$

Total Net

Reprod. Cost 9,446$ 10.57$ Marketing/Brand Value 4,354.0$

Minority Interest -$ -$ R&D Value 1,622.4$

Total Other Liabilities 4,621.0$ 4,621.0$

Total Liabilities 22,252.0$ 22,252.0$ Cash Needed for Business 345.6$

Common Stock Equity 25,888.0$ 25,888.0$ Interest Bearing Debt -$ Retained Earnings 17,878.0$ 17,878.0$ Non Interest Bearing Debt 22,252.0$

Total Capitalization 25,888.0$ 25,888.0$ Excess Cash 23,572.4$

Total Equity 25,888.0$ 27,619.0$

Total Liabilities & Stock Equity 48,140.0$ 48,140.0$

9%

User Discount %

9%

10/1/2009

Reproduction Asset Value

Asset Valuation Data

Net Reprod. Cost

$10.57

Asset Valuation

Discount Rate %

$-

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM

Last 6 yrs

Last 5 yrs

Last 4 yrs

Last 3 yrs

Last 2 yrs

Last 1 yr

PPE

Page 10: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Old School Value | http://www.oldschoolvalue.com

Period End Date 25-Sep-04 24-Sep-05 30-Sep-06 29-Sep-07 27-Sep-08 27-Sep-08 27-Dec-08 28-Mar-09 27-Jun-09

Period Length 52 Weeks 52 Weeks 53 Weeks 52 Weeks 52 Weeks 13 Weeks 13 Weeks 13 Weeks 13 Weeks

Statement Source 10-K 10-K 10-K 10-K 10-K 10-K 10-Q 10-Q 10-Q

Income Statement 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 TTM User Input

Sales 8,279$ 13,931$ 19,315$ 24,006$ 32,479$ $7,895.0 10,167.0$ 8,163.0$ 8,337.0$ 34,562.0$

EBIT 383.0$ 1,815.0$ 2,818.0$ 5,008.0$ 6,895.0$ $1,582.0 $2,284.0 $1,730.0 $1,732.0

EBIT Margin 4.6% 13.0% 14.6% 20.9% 21.2% 20.0% 22.5% 21.2% 20.8% 21.2%

EBIT at user defined % of sales -$

EBIT User Defined % Margin 4.6% 13.0% 14.6% 20.9% 21.2% 20.0% 22.5% 21.2% 20.8% 21.2%

Normalized EBITDA 486.0$ 1,822.0$ 2,678.0$ 4,726.0$ 6,794.0$ $1,576.0 2,284.0$ 1,839.0$ 1,848.0$ 7,547.0$

Normalized EBIT 336.0$ 1,643.0$ 2,453.0$ 4,409.0$ 6,275.0$ $1,442.0 2,126.0$ 1,667.0$ 1,672.0$ 6,907.0$

SG&A 500.5$ 652.4$ 851.6$ 1,037.1$ 1,316.4$ $349.7 349.7$ 381.9$ 344.8$ 1,425.9$ 35%

R&D 122.8$ 133.8$ 178.0$ 195.5$ 277.3$ $74.5 74.5$ 78.8$ 79.8$ 307.5$

Adjusted EBIT 1,006.3$ 2,601.2$ 3,847.6$ 6,240.6$ 8,488.6$ $2,006.2 2,708.2$ 2,190.6$ 2,156.5$ 9,061.4$

Adjusted EBIT % 12.2% 18.7% 19.9% 26.0% 26.1% 25.4% 26.6% 26.8% 25.9% 26.2%

Income Before Tax 370.0$ 1,808.0$ 2,818.0$ 5,008.0$ 6,895.0$ $1,582.0 2,284.0$ 1,730.0$ 1,732.0$ 7,328.0$

Income Tax - Total 104.0$ 480.0$ 829.0$ 1,512.0$ 2,061.0$ $446.0 679.0$ 525.0$ 503.0$ 2,153.0$

Tax Rate 28.1% 26.5% 29.4% 30.2% 29.9% 28.2% 29.7% 30.3% 29.0% 29.4%

Adjusted Earnings After tax 723.4$ 1,910.6$ 2,715.7$ 4,356.4$ 5,951.3$ $1,440.6 1,903.06$ 1,525.82$ 1,530.22$ 6,399.7$

Depreciation & Amortization 150.0$ 179.0$ 225.0$ 317.0$ 519.0$ $134.0 158.0$ 172.0$ 176.0$ 640.0$

Add user defined % of D&A 30.0$ 35.8$ 45.0$ 63.4$ 103.8$ $26.8 31.6$ 34.4$ 35.2$ 128.0$

Income as Adjusted 753.4$ 1,946.4$ 2,760.7$ 4,419.8$ 6,055.1$ $1,467.4 1,934.7$ 1,560.2$ 1,565.4$ 6,527.7$

Income as Adjusted % 9.1% 14.0% 14.3% 18.4% 18.6% $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 18.9%

Operating Income as Reported 326.0$ 1,650.0$ 2,453.0$ 4,409.0$ 6,275.0$ $1,442.0 2,126.0$ 1,667.0$ 1,672.0$ 6,907.0$

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TTM Average

PPE as a % of Sales 8.5% 5.9% 6.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.7%

Sales Growth (decrease) to Prior

Year 2,072.0$ 5,652.0$ 5,384.0$ 4,691.0$ 8,473.0$ 2,083.0$

Capex 176.0$ 260.0$ 657.0$ 735.0$ 1,091.0$ 1,088.0$ 583.8$

Maintenance Capex (0.9)$ (71.5)$ 299.9$ 377.0$ 450.5$ 928.1$ 330.5$

Depr & Amort 150.0$ 179.0$ 225.0$ 317.0$ 473.0$ 640.0$ 330.7$

2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-TTM

158.3% 41.8% 60.1% 37.0% 7.8% 3,692.9$

1,349.9$ 2,353.5$ 3,590.2$ 5,237.4$ 6,291.4$ 3,187.1$

6,527.7$

2004-2006 2005-2007 2006-2008 2007-TTM

91.4% 50.7% 48.1% 21.5%

1,820.2$ 3,042.3$ 4,411.9$ 5,667.5$ 9%

3,692.9$

2004-2007 2005-2008 2006-TTM 330.5$

31.4% 29.9% 13.9% -$

2,470.1$ 3,795.5$ 4,940.8$ 345.62$

24,222$

2004-2008 2005-TTM 23,876.38$

68.4% 35.3% 894

3,187.1$ 4,341.9$

EPV Per Share

+Cash-Debt

Adjustment Per Share

67,246.7$ 75.24$ 91,123.1$ 101.96$

48,033.4$ 53.75$ 71,909.8$ 80.46$

37,359.3$ 41.80$ 61,235.7$ 68.52$ 30,566.7$ 34.20$ 54,443.1$ 60.92$

25,864.1$ 28.94$ 49,740.5$ 55.66$

7,328.0$

5 Year Annual Data

Multiyear Timeframe Adjusted

Income & Growth

$3,692.9

Earnings Power Value (EPV)

Normalized Adjusted Income

Normal. Adj. Income Growth

39.4%

Past 4 Quarterly Data

Cash - Debt

13%

TTM Adjusted Income

Possible Values for Override Box

11%

EPV Data

Cost of Capital

Avg Adj. Income 5 yrs

Interest Bearing Debt

1% of sales

Cash & Equiv

Shares

9%

5%

7%

Cost of Capital Rates

Average Maintenance Capex

Normalized Adjusted Income

Normalized Income

Page 11: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Company Name ticker

Apple Inc AAPL10/1/2009

AAPL MSFT IBM HPQ PALM RIMM Industry Ranking

Stock Price 185.35 24.95 118.66 46.33 16.92 67.81 NA NA

Market Cap (millions) 166,040 222,760 155,550 109,850 2,410 38,580 NA NA

52-Week High 188.90 27.47 122.88 48.00 $18.09 Error NA NA

52-Week Low 78.20 14.87 69.50 25.39 1.14 Error NA NA

% off 52-Week Low 137.0% 73.0% 72.1% 85.9% 1431.6% #VALUE! NA NA

Valuation Ratios

P/E Ratio (TTM) 32.4 15.88 12.79 15.9 0 19.07 17.84 1

Price to Sales (TTM) 4.8 3.93 1.61 0.96 5.69 2.92 0.62 2

Price to Book (MRQ) 6.41 5.79 10.19 2.71 0 5.49 2.38 2

Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 6.56 9.08 0 82.55 0 6.93 4.15 4

Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 28.56 13.4 8.8 9.36 0 16.81 10.01 1

Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 16.31 20.06 12.44 12.9 0 86.02 30.92 3

Enterprise Value/Revenue (TTM) 4.1 3.51 1.79 0.99 6.1 Error NA NA

Enterprise Value/EBITDA (TTM) 18.862 8.812 7.468 7.481 -8.445 Error NA NA

Dividends

Dividend Yield NA 2.01 1.84 0.68 NA NA 0.01

Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 0 3.96 1.27 0.91 0 0 1.71 4

Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 0 26.58 24.7 0 0 0 7.28 3

Payout Ratio (TTM) 0 31.71 21.53 10.46 0 0 29.02 4

Growth Rates

Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 11.7 -17.29 -13.31 -2.07 -81.46 36.8 -4.99 2

Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 4.8 3.93 1.61 0.96 5.69 2.92 0.62 2

Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 39.23 9.67 3.06 10.13 -4.97 79.45 29.2 2

EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 13.89 -25.55 17.61 -15.77 -201.62 -3.81 -102.49 2

EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 11.88 -13.36 15.54 -7.71 -427.44 15.67 0 3

EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 124.7 16.65 18.93 31.39 0 99.92 11.65 1

Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 48.87 22.98 -0.35 8.43 18.42 94.92 21.1 2

Financial Strength

Quick Ratio (MRQ) 2.09 1.8 1.15 1.03 0.58 2.14 1.45 2

Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.11 1.82 1.22 1.17 0.62 2.41 1.85 2

LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0 9.47 135.68 33.45 0 0 18.24 4

Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0 14.53 190.98 41.36 0 0 30.11 4

Profitability

Gross Margin (TTM) 35.49 79.2 45.14 23.35 13.65 43.19 8.35 4

Gross Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 31.83 81.06 41.09 24 31.69 49.69 18.85 4

EBITD Margin (TTM) 21.84 37.94 21.79 12.23 -83.11 22.52 0 3

EBITD - 5 Yr. Avg. 16.82 38.98 17.89 9.65 -1.13 27.58 7.92 4

Operating Margin (TTM) 19.98 33.56 16.48 8.27 -90 20.58 2.58 3

Operating Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 15.4 36.03 12.54 6.92 -3.19 24.25 5.34 3

Pre-Tax Margin (TTM) 21.2 33.92 17.57 7.69 -102.25 21.03 2.67 2

Pre-Tax Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 17.24 38.82 14.01 7.19 -3.04 25.58 5.87 3

Net Profit Margin (TTM) 14.97 24.93 13 6.25 -195.37 15.41 2 3

Net Profit Margin - 5 Yr. Avg. 12.15 28.01 9.9 5.76 -5.86 18.69 4.09 3

Management Effectiveness

Return On Assets (TTM) 12.96 19.34 11.26 7.08 -87.72 25.23 3.45 3

Return On Assets - 5 Yr. Avg. 13.96 19.63 8.71 6.62 -6.44 23.7 6.9 3

Return On Investment (TTM) 19.18 31.08 17.64 11.88 -204.16 33.6 7.23 3

Return On Investment - 5 Yr Avg 21.57 28.63 13.69 11.36 -9.79 30.42 13.65 3

Return On Equity (TTM) 22.74 38.42 57.96 18.3 0 34.07 8.38 4

Return On Equity - 5 Yr. Avg. 24 33.44 33.46 14.59 -14.6 30.99 14.6 4

Efficiency

Revenue/Employee (TTM) 1080063 628355 244112 365125 464914 1030820 8635093 NA

Net Income/Employee (TTM) 161719 156656 31745 22816 -908304 158844 169986 NA

Receivable Turnover (TTM) 16.12 4.72 3.81 6.97 4 6.39 5.72 NA

Inventory Turnover (TTM) 48.21 14.28 19.04 12.82 11.98 13.81 8.77 NA

Asset Turnover (TTM) 0.87 0.78 0.87 1.13 0.45 1.64 1.28 3

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Page 12: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

Company Name

Apple Inc www.oldschoolvalue.com

Figures in Millions except per share values

TTM 2008/09 2007/09 2006/09 2005/09 2004/09 2003/09 2002/09 2001/09 2000/09 1999/09 TTM 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12

15.0% 14.9% 14.6% 10.3% 9.6% 3.3% 1.1% 1.1% -0.5% 9.8% 9.8% 11344.0 9596.0 5470.0 2220.0 2535.0 934.0 289.0 89.0 185.0 826.0 798.0

% Change 2.2% 41.4% 7.5% 187.5% 199.9% -1.8% 342.8% -104.7% 0.5% -- % Change 75.4% 146.4% -12.4% 171.4% 223.2% 224.7% -51.9% -77.6% 3.5% --

Now 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 Now 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12

28.1% 25.0% 27.4% 23.5% 20.1% 8.1% 2.6% 3.3% -4.7% 16.2% 13.3% 5.3% 11.0% 3.2% 4.7% 5.0% 4.1% 3.2% 15.8% -6.6% 25.0% 5.2%

% Change -8.8% 16.8% 16.7% 149.2% 206.7% -20.3% 170.2% -129.1% 22.1% -- % Change 241.0% -31.0% -7.3% 22.4% 26.9% -79.5% 340.1% -126.3% 380.5% --

2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12

10.7% 12.2% 13.8% 11.6% 11.6% 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% -0.6% 11.6% 11.6% 20.0% 23.0% 24.1% 19.9% 17.9% 5.4% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 19.5% 20.3%

% Change -11.6% 19.0% 0.0% 241.2% 240.0% 0.0% 266.7% -105.2% 0.0% -- % Change -4.6% 21.1% 11.2% 231.5% 237.5% 0.0% #DIV/0! -100.0% -3.9% --

2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12 2009/06 2007/12 2006/12 2005/12 2004/12 2003/12 2002/12 2001/12 2000/12 1999/12 1998/12

2.1 2.5 2.4 2.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 3.2 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 3.2 3.4 2.8 2.8

% Change 4.3% 5.3% -24.2% 12.3% 5.4% -23.1% -4.1% 20.7% 1.5% -- % Change 4.4% 5.6% -24.4% 12.1% 4.9% -23.2% -4.7% 21.2% 1.3% --

Magic Formula Investing -- Earnings Yield

Return on Assets (ROA) Return on Equity (ROE)

Current Ratio Quick Ratio

10/1/2009

ticker

AAPL

Net Profit Margin

Magic Formula Investing -- Return on Capital

Cash Flow (Continuing Operations)

15.0% 14.9% 14.6%

10.3% 9.6%

3.3%1.1% 1.1%

-0.5%

9.8% 9.8%

28.1% 25.0% 27.4% 23.5%20.1%

8.1%

2.6% 3.3%

-4.7%

16.2%13.3%

10.7%12.2% 13.8% 11.6% 11.6%

3.4%

1.0% 1.0%

-0.6%

11.6% 11.6%

2.12.5 2.4 2.2

3.02.6 2.5

3.2 3.4

2.8 2.8

11344.09596.0

5470.0

2220.0 2535.0934.0 289.0 89.0 185.0 826.0 798.0

5.3%

11.0%

3.2% 4.7% 5.0% 4.1% 3.2%

15.8%

-6.6%

25.0%

5.2%

20.0%23.0% 24.1%

19.9%17.9%

5.4%

1.6% 1.6%0.0%

19.5% 20.3%

2.12.4 2.3 2.2

2.92.6 2.5

3.2 3.4

2.8 2.8

Page 13: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

10/1/2009 www.oldschoolvalue.com Figures in Millions except per share values

Criteria over 5yrs Value User Points

> 25% or 50% depending on

moat0% 0

> 66% 0% 0

Criteria over 5yrs Value Points User Points

10% 40.7% 2

30% 29.0% 0

15% 12.3% 0

10% 9.9% 0

10% 121.8% 2

Criteria over 5yrs Value Points User Points

15% 80.3% 2

13% 15.2% 1

10% 130.9% 2

7% 8.5% 1

Consistent over 10yrs N/A N/A

Consistent over 10yrs N/A N/A

Criteria for TTM Value Points User Points

> 1.5 x current liabilities 2.5 1

N/A 7.95 N/A N/A

< 100% 88.2% 1

> 10% 22.7% 2

< 30% 0% 2

< 15% of assets 1.0% 2

User Points Max Points

max 2

max 2

max 2

max 2

max 2

max 2

User Points Max Points

max 2

max 1

max 1

max 1

max 1

max 2

max 1

max 1 Capital intensive company? (1 for no, 0 for yes)

Diverse customers? (1 for diverse, 0 for concentrated)

Involved in competition? Monopoly, duopoly, crowded

Company has a recurring revenue stream?

Able to increase prices and retain customers?

Compete on price? (1 for no, 0 for yes)

Barriers of entry to the business?

Network effect? E.g. eBay

Business Model Comment

Growth due to:

a) existing product / existing market (yes/no)

b) existing product / new market (yes/no)

c) new product / existing market (yes/no)

d) new product / new market (yes/no)

a) Yes

b) No

c) No

d) NO

Low barriers to entry and exit?

Experience goods (brand effect, trademarks)

High switching costs?

Apple Inc.designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, portable digital music players, and mobile communication devices and

sells a variety of related software, services, peripherals, and networking solutions. The Company sells its products worldwide through its

online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, and third-party wholesalers, resellers, and value-added resellers. In addition, the

Company sells a variety of third-party Macintosh (Mac), iPod and iPhone compatible products, including application software, printers,

storage devices, speakers, headphones, and various other accessories and peripherals through its online and retail stores, , and digital

content through the iTunes Store. It sells to consumer, small and mid-sized business (SMB), education, enterprise, government, and creative

customers.

Competitive Advantage Comment

Stable market share?

Dominant company in industry, segment?

Price to Book ratio < 2

Debt to Equity

FCF to Debt

Capitalization Ratio

Intangibles % of assets

Company Assessment: Qualitative

Median FCF growth positive and consistent

Median FCF/Sales

Consistent ROE (manually check)

Consistent ROA (manually check)

Balance Sheet

Current assets > 1.5 x current liabilities

Median Operating Margin

Median Net Margin

Median EPS growth

Business and Management Performance

Cash growth from Operations

CROIC is postive and capable of paying off financing

DCF Valuation Discount

Graham Intrinsic Value Discount

Margins, Profit and Growth

Median Revenue growth

Median Gross Margin

Company Name ticker

AAPLApple Inc

Company Assessment: Quantitative

Valuation

Page 14: AAPL 5yr OSV Stock Valuation Spreadsheet

User Points Max Points

max 1

max 1

max 1

max 1

User Points Max Points

max 1

max 1

max 1

Total Points out of 5

0.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Low Risk High Growth Under Valued Well Managed Good Financial Health Strong Moat

2.5 5.0 0.0 4.5 5.0 4.0

2.5 5.0 4.5 5.0 4.0

Margins, Profit and Growth

Business and Management Performance

Balance Sheet

Competitive Advantage

Business Model

Management

Status quo bias?

False consensus bias?

Category

Valuation

st

Bias from commitment and consistency tendency?

Pavlovian association?

Social proof bias?

Sunk cost mentality?

Slow in changing opinion?

Psychological denial ?

Am I too overconfident on the situation? No

Performed probability analysis for -ve factors?

Too much loss aversion?

Hindsight bias? No

Framing issues correctly and in different manners? Yes

Is there a data framing bias? No

Industry leader or lagger? (1 for leader, 0 for lagger)

Psychological Factors to Consider. Not Weighted. Comment

Recency bias? No

Industry Comment

Boring industry? (1 for slow, 0 for fast industry)

Can company adapt to changing industry environment?

Candid management on positives and negatives?

Management performance at previous jobs?

Compensation levels compared to sales?

Management Comment

High insider ownership?

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0Low Risk

High Growth

Under Valued

Well Managed

Good Financial Health

Strong Moat