AAPA Safety Briefing AAPA...FAA International Aviation Safety Assessment Programme -Downgrade to Cat...
Transcript of AAPA Safety Briefing AAPA...FAA International Aviation Safety Assessment Programme -Downgrade to Cat...
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AAPA Safety Briefing
Martin Eran-Tasker
Technical Director
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
10h COSCAP-NA
Steering Committee
Guilin, China
13-15 April 2010
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Overview
• Asia Pacific aviation
• Current challenges
• Safety
• AAPA efforts
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AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
• Regional trade association
• Current members include 15 major
international airlines based in Asia
Pacific
• Open to all scheduled international
airlines based in Asia Pacific region
• Committed to promoting sustainable
growth of the aviation industry serving
both passenger and freight needs
• Permanent secretariat headquartered in
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
• Representation in Washington and
Brussels
always open to new members
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• Diverse geographic region
• Home to 4 billion people
- 62% of the world’s population
• Generates 27% of global GDP
• Wide range of income levels
• Dynamic economies leading the
global recovery
• Aviation widely recognised as a key contributor to economic and social development
Asia Pacific
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Asia Pacific Aviation
Data: 2009 Estimate Source: Combined AAPA + non-AAPA airlines GMT+5 to GMT+12
US$ 128 billion revenue
647 million passengers
421 million domestic
226 million international
15 million tonnes of cargo
4,300 aircraft
Asia Pacific carriers overall market share:
29% of global passenger traffic
40% of global cargo traffic
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Improving global economic outlook, led by
developing Asian economies
• Rebuilding damaged balanced sheets, working towards
profitability
• Aviation projected to lose in 2009 USD 9.4b with USD
2.8b in 2010
• Fuel price remains volatile
• Future aviation growth cautiously optimistic
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Airlines response to the downturn
• Trimmed route networks and capacity in response to lower demand
• Implemented wide range of measures to reduce staff costs, retrenchment as a last resort
• Reduced utilisation, grounded surplus aircraft, some deferrals of new deliveries
• Conserve cash, strengthen balance sheet
• Working with industry partners to reduce unnecessary costs
Airlines focused on survival whilst
preserving ability to respond to the upturn
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Future growth postponed
Significant implications for investment
and capacity management, throughout
the value chain
Loss of two years of previously anticipated growth
Source: IATA
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Long term growth prospects still bright
Source: Airbus
Asia Pacific’s share of world traffic
will keep on growing
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Safety
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Asia Pacific: regulatory perspectives
• Diverse region: multiple governments and regulators
• Need for multilateral cooperation
• Harmonisation is more about sharing best practices before legislating, not about resolving differences after unilaterally imposed regulations
• Positive bias towards consensus, but sometimes slows the process
• Institutional framework remains fragmented, although APEC and ASEAN do touch on aviation policy issues
Asia Pacific still lacks bloc negotiating power
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Safety
• ICAO Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme
- Low regional compliance to ICAO Annexes
• FAA International Aviation Safety Assessment Programme
- Downgrade to Cat 2 – Indonesia & Philippines
- Others under consideration
• EC Safety Assessment of Foreign Aircraft (SAFA)
• EU Operational ban – “Blacklisting”
• Increase in regional ramp inspections
• Safety Management Systems – Jan 09
• Media reporting and perceptions
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• One of the safest years in aviation history
• One major accident for every two million flights
• 25% fewer than the average for recent years
• One third involved freighter aircraft
• One third occurred during the approach and landing
phase
• One quarter were due to runway over-runs
• Only one major accident involving a carrier based in the
Asia Pacific region
Observations: Safety Performance in 2009
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Aviation Safety – Media Focus
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Global Safety Performance Review
Industry Safety Record
Western-built jet aircraft
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Major Accidents 18 18 15 14 17 12 2
Accident Rate^ 0.78 0.76 0.61 0.52 0.63 0.46 -
Fatal Accidents 5 8 8 7 10 9 1
Fatalities 235 757 549 576 396 414 90
^ per million sectors
* Year to date 5 April
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0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ma
jor A
ccid
en
t R
ate
s (
pe
r m
il se
cto
rs)
Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates by Operator Region 2001 - 2009
3-year moving averages
World IATA North America Europe Asia Pacific AAPA
Safety performance – by operator region
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0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ma
jor A
ccid
en
t R
ate
s (
pe
r m
il se
cto
rs)
Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates Asia Pacific Regional Breakdown 2001- 2009
3-year moving averages
Asia Pacific total AAPA P.R. China India Others
Safety performance – ASPAC region
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AAPA Efforts
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AAPA Safety Strategy
• Enhance safety in the Asia Pacific region
– senior management commitment, SMS, cost-effective training
packages/technology, just culture, language proficiency, avoid duplication
• Engage regulators and industry safety stakeholders
– Encourage effective oversight, support the establishment of a regional
safety regulatory body, forums and dialogue sessions
– Encourage effective and timely safety investigations
• Safety data management and analysis
– Develop key safety performance indicators, analytical tools, threat and
error management, and risk management assessment tools
• Communicate on regional safety performance and action plans
– Act as a regional safety spokesman and offer a regional viewpoint
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AAPA Safety Focus
• Flight Operations Safety Working Group
- Meets twice per year
- Comprises Heads of Safety
- Open door policy to ASPAC carriers
• Data sharing, lessons learnt , review of incidents and
causal factors
• Cabin Safety Task Force - new
• Safety Management Systems implementation
• Safety surveys
• Regional risk assessment
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AAPA Safety Focus 2009/2010
• Wildlife hazards
- Cost industry USD 1.5b per annum
- Problematic airports – DEL – PEN – SGN –BKK
- Need for a regional forum
• TCAS RA
• Ground safety
• Runway Safety - Need for a regional forum
• Developing a “Just culture” implementation best
practice document
• Safety Performance indicators
• Asia Pacific Aviation Safety Seminar 29-30 Sep 2010
- Venue – Manila - Host Philippines Airlines
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AAPA Projects
Safety Performance Indicators
• Better manage operational safety performance and
reduce associated costs
• Identify, document, and measure “leading edge”
safety performance metrics
• Proactive methodology to enable timely identification
of escalating risk
• Safety performance management tool
• Applicable to all SMS Stakeholder organizations
• Safety Performance Indicators pilot
- Philippine Airlines + 1
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Finally
Aviation remains the safest mode
of transportation
• Aviation is at the heart of global economic development
• Asia Pacific aviation maintains a very good safety record
• Need to strengthen regional safety oversight and make better use of available regulatory resources
• Acceptable levels of safety performance can only be achieved through transparency, collaboration and cooperation
• Asia Pacific carriers safety performance continues to improve and is comparable to industry standards.
• Strong reservations about unilateral imposition of operational
bans on airlines, and effects of category downgrading of
national authorities
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www.aapairlines.org
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
9/F Kompleks Antarabangsa
Jalan Sultan Ismail
Kuala Lumpur 50250
MALAYSIA
Tel: +60 3 2145 5600
Fax: +60 3 2145 2500
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Ground Safety
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Others
Aircraft-to-Aircraft
FOD
Aircraft-to-Facilities
Aircraft-to-GSE
Loading
Aircraft-to-Vehicles
Number of Incidents
Typ
es
Ground Incidents by Type(33rd vs 34th FOSWG)
Jul - Dec 2009 Jan - Jun 2009
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0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
DEL SFO JNB BOM LAX MXP CDG AMS ANC FRA
Inci
de
nt
Ra
tes
(pe
r 1
,00
0 s
ect
ors
)
Airport
Ground Incidents by Airport
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TCAS - RA
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0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00
KUL
HKG
SIN
TPE
LAX
SFO
Rates (per 1,000 sectors)
FIR
/ A
ero
dro
me
TCAS Incident Rates by FIR
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Bird Hazards
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0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
SIN
LHR
BKK
PVG
PEN
CGK
HAN
SGN
TAO
DEL
Rates (per 1,000 sectors)
Air
po
rts
Non-Damage Bird Strike Incident Rates by Airport
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0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40
SIN
KUL
HKT
FRA
JFK
Rates (per 1,000 sectors)
Air
po
rts
Damage Bird Strike Incident Rates by Airport
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Bird Hazards
• A number of airports in the region demonstrated
consistently high bird strike rate:
DEL PEK MNL
SGN BKK CGK
PEN