AAKASH CAPITAL LIMITED Weekly Newsletter from Aakash Capital Limited for the week ending on 24th January, 2020

NEPSE UPDATE

Indicators 19th Jan,

2020 23rd Jan,

2020

(+)/(-)

Change %

NEPSE 1310.23 1297.47 -0.97%

SENSITIVE 282.87 278.72 -1.47%

FLOAT 92.86 91.94 -0.99%

SEN. FLOAT 92.83 91.65 -1.27%

BANKING 1163.3 1140.19 -1.99%

TRADING 868.38 791.23 -8.88%

HOTELS 2066.99 1997.98 -3.34%

DEVELOPMENT BANKS 1781.26 1747.65 -1.89%

HYDROPOWER 1035.32 1006.35 -2.80%

FINANCE 665.01 665.17 0.02%

NON LIFE INSURANCE 5228.06 5440.27 4.06%

MANU. & PRO. 2509.81 2480.94 -1.15%

OTHERS 684.9 672.06 -1.87%

MICROFINANCE 2069.38 2015.82 -2.59%

LIFE INSURANCE 6700.76 7214.45 7.67%

MUTUAL FUND 10.05 10.19 1.39%

Market Summary Statistics (19th to 23rd Jan, 2020)

Total Turnover (Rs) 8,546,833,446

Total Traded Shares 25,102,159 Total Number of Transactions 86,490 Scrips Traded 183

Market Cap at Week start 1,721,829.44 Millions

Market cap at Week end 1,654,735.03 Millions

Floated Market Cap at Week start 627,990.04 Millions

Floated Market Cap at Week end 603,010.77 Millions

Bullion Update

As on 24th January 2020 Hallmark Gold Rs.75,000/tola

Worked Gold Rs.74,700/tola

Silver Rs.885/tola

Quote for the week

“Investment is most successful when

it is most businesslike” – Ben Graham

The market declined by 0.97% (12.76 points) in the

trading week between 19th January and 23rd January

2020. The sensitive index, which measures the

performance of the companies classified under group

“A”, also registered the fall of 1.47% (4.15 points).

Similarly, float index which measures the performance

of securities which are floated to public also went

down by 0.99% and sensitive float followed the trend

by decreasing 1.27%.

This week the market opened at 1310.23 on Sunday

and went up 33.42 points to sit at 1343.65 level. The

market showed correction on Monday with decline of

26.54 points. Similarly, market tried to show positive

sentiment on Tuesday with a gain of 3.36 points but it

failed to continue its momentum on remaining days.

The index registered decline of 7.05 points on

Wednesday and 15.95 points on Thursday to end the

week at 1297.47 level.

In this review period, among 12 sub-index, only 4 sub-

index were able to close higher. Life Insurance sub-

index which gained 12.29% last week continued its

increasing trend with the highest gain of 7.67% in the

review period. Similarly, Non-Life insurance sub-index

also registered the gain of 4.06% followed by Mutual

Fund and Finance sub-index with gain of 1.39% and

0.02% respectively. However, the Trading sub-index

which registered the highest gain of 28.74% last week,

declined with 8.88% this week. Similarly, Banking,

Hotels, Development Bank, Hydropower, Manu & Pro,

Others, and Microfinance also registered the fall of

1.99%, 3.34%, 1.89%, 2.80%, 1.15%, 1.87%, and 2.59%

respectively which have let the market to fall by 0.97%.

The market witnessed supportive volume of

transaction turnover this week. The total turnover

stood at Rs.8.54 billion with average of Rs.1.70 billion

a day. The total market value decreased by

Rs.24,520.33 million as the market capitalization went

down by 1.46%. Similarly, floating market cap also

registered the fall of 1.55% this trading week.

.

Market Announcements

Agricultural Development Bank Limited has published an offer letter to issue (25,00,000 units @ Rs.1000 per unit) 10.35% ADBL Krisi Bank Rinpatra 2083 to the general public from (14th to 17 Magh, 2076).

Taragaon Regency Hotel Limited is distributing 12.631% cash dividend directly to bank accounts to its shareholders and urged its shareholders to dematerialize their shares.

Himalayan Distillery Limited is distributing 52.63% cash dividend directly to bank accounts to its shareholders and urged its shareholders to dematerialize their shares.

Samata Laghubiutta Bittiya Sanstha Limited is distributing 5.52% cash dividend directly to bank accounts to its shareholders and urged its shareholders to dematerialize their shares.

Gandaki Bikas Bank Limited is distributing 17.32% cash dividend directly to bank accounts to its shareholders and urged its shareholders to dematerialize their shares.

United Finance Limited is distributing 7.5263% cash dividend directly to bank accounts to its shareholders and urged its shareholders to dematerialize their shares.

Nepal Investment Bank Limited is distributing 8.5% cash dividend directly to bank accounts to its shareholders and urged its shareholders to dematerialize their shares.

Vijaya Laghubiutta Bittiya Sanstha Limited is distributing 5% cash dividend directly to bank accounts to its shareholders and urged its shareholders to dematerialize their shares.

Citizens Bank International Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 687.70 million and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

NIC Asia Bank Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 2.01 billion and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Siddhartha Bank Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 1.02 billion and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Sanima Bank Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 1.14 billion and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Samata Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 25.82 million and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Chautari Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 26.53 million and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

NMB Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 49.06 million and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Global IME Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 78.71 million and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Infinity Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 33.47 million and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Sparsha Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 13.70 million and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Laxmi Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 70.89 million and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Nerude Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited Limited is distributing 5.79% cash dividend directly to bank accounts to its shareholders and urged its shareholders to dematerialize their shares.

Shaligram Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited has posted a net loss of Rs 2.26 million during the 2nd quarter of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Ganapati Microfinance Bittiya Sanstha Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 16.61 million and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Synergy Power Development Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 66.81 million and published its 2nd quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2076/77.

Shangrila Development Bank Limited has published its annual financial highlights of the fiscal year 2075/76.

Himalayan Bank Limited has announced its 27th AGM going to be held on 29th Magh, 2076.

Prabhu Insurance Company Limited has announced its 24th AGM going to be held on 24th Magh, 2076.

NEPSE - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The Nepalese stock market (NEPSE) seems to be in the end of bearish trend after falling from July, 2016. Currently, Index has

shown similar pattern as of March-April 2019 with support level of 1102 and resistance level of 1149. But, the market has already

crossed the long term bearish trend line, which is positive for the market. Currently, the index is falling from resistance zone of

1349 level. This week NEPSE opened at 1310.23 and formed a green candle by closing at 1343.65, gaining 33.42 points during

the day. However, the overall market lost 12.76 points during the week. This week the average turnover has increased to Rs.1.70

billion from Rs.1.33 billion of previous week. As of weekly line chart support level might be at around 1295 level.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Indicators Value Signal

Support (S1) 1295 -

Resistance (R1) 1310 -

Relative Strength Index (RSI) 67.18 Bullish

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) 41.82 Bullish

5-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1306.57 Bullish

20-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1256.26 Bullish

180-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1178.35 Bullish

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Analysis

RSI is a moment indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions

in the price of a stock. RSI is typically used on a 14-day time frame, measured on a scale from 0 to 100, where a value above 70

represents overbought and below 30 represents oversold condition.

Current RSI value of NEPSE is 68.35 which indicates that the market is at overbought zone. There is no formation of divergence

in short term chart.

Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is a technical indicator that consists of a set of lines plotted two standard deviations up and below a 21-day simple

moving average. The bands are an indication of volatility; a widening gap indicates higher volatility and vice-versa. Prices are

relatively high when above the upper band and low when below the lower band.

The upper, middle and the lower bands are at 1363.70, 1241.56 and 1119.42 respectively. The market is falling from upper band

to middle band which indicates the market is at correction phase.

Stock Analysis: Agricultural Development Bank Limited (ADBL)

Agricultural Development Bank Limited, was established in 1968 under the ADBN Act 1967, as successor to the cooperative Bank with the main objective of providing institutional credit for enhancing the production and productivity of the agricultural sector in the country. The Land Reform Savings Corporation was merged with ADBN in 1973. Subsequent amendments to the Act empowered the bank to extend credit to small farmers under group liability and expand the scope of financing to promote cottage industries. The amendments also permitted the bank to engage in commercial banking activities for the mobilization of domestic resources.

The enactment of Banks and Financial Institutions Act (BAFIA) took all the banks and financial institutions (BFIs) under its umbrella and abolished all the acts related to the BFIs including the ADBN Act, 1967. Since then, the bank has been working as a public limited company registered under the Companies Act, 2006 and is licensed as "A class financial institution" by Nepal Rastra Bank from 2006.

Board of Directors

Name Designation

Mr. Chettra Bahadur Sejuwal Chairman

Mr. Jhakka Prasad Acharya Director

Mr. Rajendra Prashad Mishra Director

Mrs. Indira Shrestha (Maske) Independent Director

Mr. Sanjeev Paudel Director

Mr. Hari Prasad Parajuli Director

Mr. Binod Kumar Guragain Director

(Source: https://www.adbl.gov.np/)

Chief Executive Officer: Mr. Anil Kumar Upadhyay

Capital Structure (As on 31st Asar 2076)

Particulars Ordinary Preference Shares

Total Non-Redeemable Redeemable

Issued Capital (Rs.) 9,015,528,960 5,432,712,000 - 14,448,240,960

Paid Up Capital (Rs.) 9,015,528,960 5,432,712,000 - 14,448,240,960

Ordinary Share Ownership (As on 31st Asar 2076)

S.N. Particulars Amount (Rs.) Percent (%)

1 Domestic Ownership 9,015,528,960.00 100.00%

1.1 Nepal Government 4,597,919,770.00 51.00%

1.2 “A” Class Licensed Institutions - -

1.3 Other Licensed Institutions - -

1.4 Other Institutions - -

1.5 Public 4,417,609,190.00 49.00%

1.6 Other - -

2 Foreign Ownership - -

Total 9,015,528,960.00 100.00%

Financial Analysis (Yearly Analysis)

Year 2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76 CAGR

Paid-up Capital (Rs.000) 10,374,400.00 11,555,680.00 13,937,928.00 13,937,928.00 14,448,240.96 8.63%

Reserves & Surplus (Rs.000) 5,849,714.62 6,572,332.48 7,858,773.40 9,430,923.11 10,482,454.49

15.70%

Deposit Liabilities (Rs.000) 77,035,056.19 87,387,154.95 99,816,272.14 104,178,959.62 118,884,922.83 11.46%

Total Assets (Rs.000) 100,928,514.48 111,785,009.36 126,866,600.10 134,854,097.61 151,457,730.97 10.68%

Loans (Rs.000) 68,578,360.41 79,489,556.23 88,206,549.36 98,096,350.32 108,806,696.76 12.23%

Interest Income (Rs.000) 8,765,425.39 9,620,203.33 11,324,507.58 13,956,457.63 15,480,122.11 15.28%

Net Interest Income (Rs.000) 5,644,893.17 6,261,331.03 7,099,636.41 6,990,171.64 7,614,991.66

7.77%

Total Operating Income (Rs.000) 6,659,907.10 7,423,268.19 8,184,520.00 8,166,119.69 9,023,231.94

7.89%

Personnel Expenses (Rs.000) 2,873,022.48 3,031,500.50 3,312,598.09 3,182,351.46 2,928,862.07

0.48%

Net Profit (Rs.000) 3,603,370.81 2,464,683.09 2,565,220.20 3,653,519.10 4,191,590.64 3.85%

Growth % - -31.60% 4.08% 42.43% 14.73% -

Net Interest Income to Total Operating Income %

84.76% 84.35% 86.74% 85.60% 84.39% -

Return on Assets (ROA) 3.57% 2.20% 2.02% 2.71% 2.77% -

Return on Equity (ROE) 22.21% 13.60% 11.77% 15.63% 16.81% -

EPS (Rs.) 78.83 52.79 31.59 36.91 42.88 -

DPS (including Bonus) % 15.79% 21.05% 21.05% 21.05% 30.00% -

Book Value Per share (Rs.) 245.69 296.91 230.88 305.31 314.49 -

Market Value per share (Rs.)

432 768 435 314 409 -

Price Earnings Ratio 5.48 14.55 13.77 8.51 9.54 -

Capital Fund to RWA (CAR) %

17.16% 17.18% 20.41% 20.33% 20.37% -

Non-Performing Loan(NPL) to Total Loan %

5.35% 4.36% 4.60% 3.50% 3.29% -

Total Staff number 2739 2430 2632 2455 2308 -

Based on the above data, company seems to be in a stable position with share capital of Rs.14.44 billion. It has already met the paid up capital of Rs.8 billion as directed by Nepal Rastra Bank. Almost all the fundamentals of the bank has grown in last five years. As of 2075/76, the bank has reported rise in Reserve and Surplus to Rs.10.48 billion with Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.70% in the review period. Deposit liabilities has increased to Rs.118.88 billion and Loans to Rs.108.8 billion which have let the Interest Income to grow by 10.92% and Net Profit by 14.73% to Rs.4.19 billion. Similarly, Total Assets has increased to Rs.151.45 billion with CAGR of 10.68% in the review period. The company registered fall of 31.60% in Net Profit in 2072/73 due do decline in written back of previous loan losses. However, it has reported positive growth in other fundamentals.

Analyzing the important fundamental ratios like Capital Adequacy ratio (CAR) and Non-performing loan to Total loan, they seems to be in safe zone. As of 2075/76 CAR stand at 20.37% which indicates the safer side as directed by NRB and NPL to Total loan is 3.29% which was 3.50% in 2074/75. As of 2075/76, bank is providing financial services in all districts mobilizing more than 2300 employees. The company has sound fundamentals and possess huge potential in the Nepalese emerging financial market.

The bank is providing consistent dividend either in the form of cash or bonus. Bank has practice of giving bonus dividend than cash to its shareholders. However, it has given 24% cash dividend from the profit of 2075/76.

Debenture Notice Agriculture Development Bank Limited (ADBL) is selling 25 lakh units debenture having 7 years maturity period with 10.35% coupon rate from 14th to 17th Magh, 2076 (28th to 31st January, 2020). Interested individuals can apply for a minimum of 25 units at Rs.1,000 per Debenture. NIBL Ace Capital Ltd has been appointed as the issue manager.

Financial Highlights

1,037.44 1,155.571,393.79 1,393.79 1,444.82

584.97 657.23785.88 943.09

1,048.25

0.00

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76

Paid-up Capital and Reserve & Surplus

Paid-up Capital (Rs.crores) Reserves & Surplus (Rs.crores)

7,703.518,738.72

9,981.63 10,417.9011,888.49

6,857.847,948.96

8,820.65 9,809.6410,880.67

0.00

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76

Deposits & Loans

Deposit Liabilities (Rs.crores) Loans (Rs.crores)

360.34

246.47256.52

365.35

419.16

78.83 52.7931.59

36.91 42.88

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76

Net Profit vs EPS

Net Profit (Rs.crores) EPS (Rs.)

78.83 52.79 31.59 36.91 42.88

432

768

435314

409

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76

EPS vs MVPS

EPS (Rs.) Market Value per share (Rs.)

287.30

303.15331.26

318.24 292.89

360.34

246.47 256.52

365.35419.16

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76

Personnel Expenses vs Net Profit

Personnel Expenses (Rs.crores) Net Profit (Rs.crores)

287.30303.15 331.26 318.24 292.89

27392430

2632 2455 2308

0.00

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

3,000.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76

Total Staff vs Personnel Expenses

Personnel Expenses (Rs.crores) Total Staff number

22.21%

13.60%11.77%

15.63%16.81%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76

Return on Equity (ROE)

15.79%

21.05%21.05%

21.05%

30.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76

DPS (%)

Technical Analysis of ADBL as on January 23, 2020

Day Candle

Open 390

High 390

Low 380

Close 382

Pattern Analysis

Resistance R1: 388 R2: 393

Support S1: 372 S2: 358

Particulars Points Remarks

Volume 11,817 The daily volume of stock is lower than both 1

week‘s and 1 month’s average volume. Avg. Volume (1 week) 26,836.60

Avg. Volume (1 month) 22,792.00

No. of Transaction 79 The daily number of transaction is lower than both 1 week and 1 month’s average no of transaction.

Avg. no. of Transaction (1 week) 121.40

Avg. no. of Transaction (1 month) 107.81

180 days Average (Rs.) 410.39 The price of the stock is trading in between 180 day’s 360 day’s average. 360 days Average (Rs.) 373.78

52 Weeks High Price (Rs.) 451 The stock is currently trading in between 52 week’s high and low price. 52 Weeks Low Price (Rs.) 290

Nepse Index 1 year Change 10.61% The overall market and industry has gained in last 1 year. The stock has also gained in last 12 months but has lost in last 1 month.

Industry Index 1year Change 39.69%

Stock 1-Month Change -7.28%

Stock 1-Year Change 11.37%

Total Holdings of Mutual Funds (Mangsir, 2076) 528,179 The Mutual Funds are holding less no of shares of the company.

Quarterly Analysis

Particulars Q1 2075/76 Q1 2076/77 Growth (%)

Paid-up Capital (Rs.000) 14,448,240.96 14,448,240.96 0.00%

Reserves (Rs.000) 10,408,942.77 10,376,786.23 -0.31%

Deposits from customers (Rs.000) 119,763,452.03 123,546,787.42 3.16%

Total Assets (Rs.000) 153,040,014.09 156,363,126.53 2.17%

Loans & advances to customers (Rs.000) 110,797,190.57 111,465,738.15 0.60%

Net Interest Income (Rs.000) 1,816,659.23 1,665,194.61 -8.34%

Staff Expenses (Rs.000) 822,028.33 769,123.98 -6.44%

Net Profit (Rs.000) 551,461.49 607,343.23 10.13%

Earnings per share (EPS) 20.85 23.33 11.89%

Net worth per share (Rs.) 205.44 263.65 28.33%

P/E ratio 20.54 17.96 -12.56%

Credit to Deposit Ratio (%) 75.98% 71.42% -6.00%

Capital fund to RWA (%) 19.94% 20.77% 4.16%

NPL to Total Loan (%) 3.93% 3.70% -5.85%

As of Q1 of fiscal year 2076/77, the paid up capital stands at Rs.14.44 billion. The Bank is reported increase in Total Assets by

2.17%, Deposits from customer by 3.16%, Loans by 0.60% which have let the Net Profit to increase by 10.13% as compared to

the corresponding quarter of 2075/76. However, the Reserves has declined by 0.31%.

Concluding Remarks Having glorious history of more than 52 years, the bank is one of the leading commercial banks of the country. With its investment in agriculture, industry, trade, commerce and households, the bank has important contribution in the economic development of the country. It has its presence all over the 7 provinces & 77 districts with its 278 offices which have helped the company to gain a competitive advantage in its sector. Company seems to be in a stable position with its sound fundamentals and possess potential to grow further in the Nepalese financial market where only 45% of the population are access to the banking system.

Indicators Points Remarks

RSI (14) 50.84 ADBL is at moderate zone.

MACD (12,26,9) 1.83 The MACD line is above the signal line and baseline.

Signal Line (12,26,9) -0.25

Histogram (12,26,9) 2.09

EMA (5,0) 385.47 The price is trading above the EMA 20 but below EMA 5 days moving average. EMA (20,0) 381.30

+DMI(13,8) 27.78 The +DMI is dominant over -DMI and ADX is at 25.46

-DMI(13,8) 15.04

ADX (13,8) 25.46

The following table shows the total dividend declared by the Finance Companies from the profit of 2075/76

S.N Symbol Company Name Dividend

Total Dividend (%) Bonus (%) Cash (%)

1 GFCL Goodwill Finance Company Limited 0.00 10.00 10.00

2 PFL Pokhara Finance Limited 7.00 7.20 14.20

3 UFL United Finance Limited 3.00 7.53 10.53

4 SIFC Shree Investment Finance Company Limited 2.35 10.65 13.00

5 CFCL Central Finance Limited 0.00 7.00 7.00

6 JFL Janaki Finance Company Limited 22.00 1.16 23.16

7 SFFIL Srijana Finance Limited 15.00 0.79 15.79

8 GMFIL Guheswori Merchant Banking & Finance Limited 0.00 6.50 6.50

9 ICFC ICFC Finance Limited 5.00 8.00 13.00

10 MFIL Manjushree Finance Limited 1.75 9.80 11.55

11 RLFL Reliance Finance Limited 0.00 6.58 6.58

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