Aagw2010 June 09 Andy Nelson the Geography of Rice Irri

8/9/2019 Aagw2010 June 09 Andy Nelson the Geography of Rice Irri

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The geography of rice

Andy Nelson


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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI

What are we doing, how is it useful to others

Our ideas for the future

Potential shared services


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How important is agriculture for the poor?

Thanks to several efforts, we have a good idea of which crops aregrown where (ditto for livestock etc.) 200+ commodities mapped.

Areas of rice production


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Thanks to Stan et al, we have a good idea of poverty prevalence,both as headcounts and poverty rates.

Number of people on less than $1.25 a day


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This is too good an opportunity to pass up

We need a common framework linking agriculture and poverty toassess the potential impact of our researchThis project has the potential to lift x million people in SSA out ofpovertyx million people in poverty depend upon crop y in region z

We need to be sending out a common messageThe current drafts of the CG MegaPrograms contain conflicting

figures. Since many programs are being submitted at the same timethere is a serious credibility issue here

So, how can we go about this?


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A first effortin 4 quick and easy steps

1. Tabulate the number of poor in each crop producing area

2. Sum the number of poor across all crops and all regions

3. Send it out to all your friends and colleagues in the CG/CSI

4. Lose friends and colleagues in the CG/CSI


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A firstand not very popular - effortPeople on < 1.25USD a day per major crop (crop pixel has 10%+ of the crop)

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

Wheat

Maize Ric

eMillet

Sorghu

m

Soybeans

Potat

oes

Cassava

Sugarc

ane

Rape

seed

/Can

ola

Groundn

uts/Peanuts

Pulse

s

East Asia South East Asia South Asia

Sub Saharan Africa Latin America & the Caribbean Other


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How to better capture this complex problem?

1 Use FAO food balance sheets and prices and compute theinternationally comparable value of production (USD$ per ton) forthe important crops in each country

2 multiply that by the production from each pixel for 200 agricultural

products. Output total $ value of agricultural production per pixel

3 Assume that the total $ value of the crops grown by the poor perpixel is the poverty rate x the total value of production

4 Divide by the number of poor to get the $ value of agriculturalproduction per person in poverty

5 Aggregate by country/farming system/AEZ to provide consistentpoverty headcounts, poverty rates and $ value figures for each

crop and each crop combination. Repeat the whole thing forcalories, fat and protein per person.


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Other ideas?

How can we bring together information on:

Crop and livestock production, Farming systems,

Agroecological zones, Poverty .

to present a consistent message across the CG of the relevance of

our work and the potential impact on the livelihoods of the poor

@


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Mapping rice and rice agroecologies

Where is rice grown?

Under what conditions is it grown? How much is rainfed/irrigated?

Where are drought / flooding / heat stress / cold stress an issue?

What are the planting dates, harvest dates, season lengths?Where and when are pests and diseases an issue?

What is the yield gap and how does it vary from place to place?

How do all these change from year to year?

These are not rice specific questions

G h @ IRRI


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MODIS remote sensing imagery

Freely available

Global coverage

Medium spatial resolution, new images every 8 days / 46 per year10 years of data

Perfect for mapping land cover change and monitoring stress

But it is a lot of data



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G h @ IRRI


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Rice phenology from remote sensing

21-Jul-08 9-Sep-08 29-Oct-08 18-Dec-08 6-Feb-09 28-Mar-09 17-May-09

-0.1

1-Jun-08

No flooding of field in

Rabi season, then slowergrowth = wheat

Flooding of field in Kharif

season, then rapidgrowth = rice

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Indexvalue

1.0

Vegetation index

Water index


G h @ IRRI


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Detecting rice paddies


Geograph @ IRRI


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Geography @ IRRI


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Geography @ IRRI


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Geography @ IRRI


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RS Time series are a great resource but the signal is often noisy andhas gaps due to cloud.

Need to process this with TIMESAT to get smooth dataseries

start and end of season

length of season

number of seasons

biomass

interannual changes


Getting more out of the time series

i j i iGeography @ IRRI


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Need to process this with TIMESAT to get smooth dataseries


length of season

number of seasons

biomass

interannual changes



P t & A i lt M th j t i iGeography @ IRRI


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Need to process this with TIMESAT to get smooth data series


length of season

number of seasons

biomass

interannual changes




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P t & A i lt M th j t i iGeography @ IRRI


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MODIS is downloaded, processed, used and stored by just abouteveryone in the GIS/RS community

We all generate commonly used vegetation and water indices

NDVI, EVI, NDWI, NDDI, LSWI and many others

Smooth time series of these indices would be valuable for manypurposes

Crop (and land surface in general) phenology data is equallyimportant


Thats a lot of outputs



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We need a killer app


iPad



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We need a killer app


iPaddyiPad



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How iPaddy works

Move all processing and storage of MODIS to Amazon cloud basedservices. Weve started this already

Create generic processing chains (written in R) to run all themodels. Veg indices and rice mapping component complete

User simply selects the tile, the dates and issues the command. Canselect the types of output you want

Store the data and results on Amazon

Data and results are available for anyone to access at all times

99% of this is generic, it is not just for rice



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Wrap up

Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceg p y

What are we doing, how is it useful to othersOur ideas for the futurePotential shared services

Commonly agreed methods for presentingthe big picture on poverty / agriculture

iPaddy - Remotely hosted processing chainsfor common GIS/RS needs

Outsourced HPC and storage

Geography @ IRRI


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Thank you

Questions?

[email protected]

g p y

Aagw2010 June 09 Andy Nelson the Geography of Rice Irri

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