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A2A-LGH Partnership - Italian Infrastructure Day · TEA 245 ACSM-AGAM 217 1,127 1,048 885 678 732...
Transcript of A2A-LGH Partnership - Italian Infrastructure Day · TEA 245 ACSM-AGAM 217 1,127 1,048 885 678 732...
A2A-LGH Partnership
Milan, September 8th, 2016
Borsa ItalianaItalian Infrastructure Day
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
Partnership Rationale
Territorialleadership
Growthpole
Territorialinvestments
More quality& synergies
PARTNERSHIP CRITERIA PARTNERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
• Optimization of the presence inLombardy
• Financial, industrial and operativesynergies
• Stronger positioning in allbusinesses
• Investments optimization
• 1st project of “Multi-utility deiTerritori” model
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This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
Geographical presence and activities
10%
23%
4%
27%
35%
1%
WASTE
NETWORKS
DISTRICTHEATING
ENERGYRETAIL
GENERATION(RES)& TRADING
OTHER
Generation (Traditional)
Generation (Renewable)
Cogeneration
Waste-to-energy
Other waste plants
Assets
Sizable presence in Lombardy
Hydro
Biomass
Biomass
Photovoltaic
Hydro
Hydro
A2A LGH
LGH 2015 EBITDA BY BUSINESS
LGH KEY NUMBERS
A2A LGH
GEOGRAPHICAL PRESENCE
• 250 Municipalities served• 1 Million inhabitants served• Second largest Multiutility in Lombardy• 265k PDR in Gas Distribution• 45k Pod in Electricity Distribution• Over 600k inhabitants served in collection• 280k customers in Gas and Electricity Sale
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District Heating
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 4
Net InvestedCapital
627
NFP
-394
Equity
233
LGH Main Financial Highlights 2015
Revenues
557
EBITDA
79
EBIT
30
Net Income
4
€M
* includes business to be divested for 1,9 €M
*
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
A2A +LGH
5,478
A2A
4,921
HERA
4,818
IREN
3,094
ACEA
2,917
1,380
DOLOMITIENERGIA
1,317
785582
LGH
557
AEB-GELSIA
247
TEA
245
ACSM-AGAM
217
1,127 79 30 39 441,048 885 678 732 200 174 82 81
ALPERIA AGSM ASCOPIAVE
EBITDA
5
A2A – LGH: A significant step in the new consolidation wave
• Most Importanttransactionbetween a listedand a Local Utilityin the last years
€M
Revenues
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
2015
4
2020
37
6
Key numbers of LGH Plan @2020
2016-2020
11%
54%
21%
9%242
2%
3%
WASTE
NETWORKS
DISTRICT
HEATING
ENERGY RETAIL
GENERATION &TRADING
OTHER
2015
322
27
818
79
2020
9
32
41
14
21
120
1
3
WASTE
NETWORKS
DISTRICT HEATING
ENERGY RETAIL
GENERATION & TRADING
OTHER
EBITDA
2015
394
2020
2965X
2,5X
CAPEX (cumulated)
NFP/EBITDA
~ +40 €M
NET INCOME
NET FINANCIAL POSITION
~ -100 €M
€M
Note: 2015 EBITDA includes available for sale business for 1,9 €M
~ +30 €M
CAGR~9%
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
2015 A
21.6
25.4
8.0
17.9
78.9
Synergies
11.9
10.0
Augustalandfill
9.45.9
Hydrooptimization
3.14.7
One-off 2015and change in
perimeter*
-7.2
3.7
2020 E
9.1
32.3
41.1
13.5
21.1
120.3
3.2
0.8
GasTenders
DHsaturation
EE/GASretail
optimization
Other
WASTE
NETWORKS
DISTRICT HEATING
ENERGY RETAIL
GENERATION &TRADING
OTHER
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2015-2020 EBITDA evolution
+41.4 €M
*APR and Lodi Waste collection business branch
€M
Note: 2015 EBITDA includes available for sale business for 1,9 €M
Additional Projects not included in financials for ~20 €M
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
Expected synergies
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PROCUREMENTOPTIMIZATION
OPERATIONALEFFICIENCY
Cost of Debt
~ 9 €M
~ 3 €M
~ 7 €M
EBITDA
Net FinancialExpenses
15% vs. 2015 EBITDA15% vs. 2015 EBITDA
-~40% vs. 2015 Financialexpenses
-~40% vs. 2015 Financialexpenses
• Additional Contribution of ~19€M per year by 2020
• Low execution risk• Other potential upsides not
included• 7% Synergies in annual Capex
(Yearly data – fully on stream)
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 9
2017* 2018 2019 2020
PROCUREMENTOPTIMIZATION
OPERATIONALEFFICIENCY
COST OF DEBT
24% 49% 74% 100%
43% 60% 73% 100%
- 45% 25% 100% 100%
Renegotiation costsBond repayment
1 8 16 19
%
%
%
€MTOTALSYNERGIES
Call CenterInternalization
Data Center OptimizationShipping and EnergyManagementOptimization
*2017 synergies include small components related to 2016
Synergies time-table
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 10
Cash Flow Generation
-200
0
200
400
NFP2015
394
EBITDA
-507
TAX
73
CAPEX
242
CHANGEIN NWC
& FUNDS
-6
NETFINANCIALEXPENSES
46
DIVIDENDS
55
NFP2020
296
€M
-97 €M
* assumption of 50% pay-out of Group Ordinary net income
~ 100 €M NFP reduction
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 11
BaseEquity Value
89.3
Earn-in
9.6
Earn-out
13.9
Total
112.8
Total
65.5
47.2
112.8
Cash
Stock
Earn-out
100%
27.2
BaseEquity Value
Earn-in
175.2
18.8
MAXIMUMEQUITY VALUE 221.1
TOT. UPFRONT 193.9
51%
13.9
89.3
9.6
112.8
98.9
€M
€M
Most of the Earn-in/out will bedefined by march2019
Transaction financials
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 12
ACCRETION/DILUTION ANALYSIS – Adjusted
Increase of ~ 5% in EPS per year by 2020
€/share
1) Net of non-recurringincomes due to gastenders
2) Calculated assumingfully paid earn in/out
EPS Accretion
A2A average consensus2020
0.005
0.109
0.115
PreAcquisitionEPS
EPSincrease
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 13
SHAREHOLDERS STRUCTURE
Way–Out Scenarios
• Three years after closing (2019), the parties,will determine the future of LGH givingpriority to:
- a merger between A2A and LGH
or, alternatively
- the renewal of the Shareholdersagreement
• The agreements also foresees additionalsafeguards for the Partners
SHAREHOLDERS AGREEMENT
The Agreement between A2A and the other LGHshareholders : 4-year duration and expires in 2020
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Expiry
Governance and future steps
SCS9%
Astem13% ASM Pavia
16%
Cogeme 31%
AEM Cremona 31%
A2A 51%
SCS 4%
Astem7%
ASM Pavia8%
Cogeme15%
AEM Cremona15%
PRE-DEAL POST-DEAL
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 14
• Lower business risk profile of the new combined entity
• Significative synergies with low execution risk
• Defined way-out scenarios and partnership evolution
• Landmark transaction for local aggregations in Italy
• Antitrust remedies to be offset by part of efficiency measures
Delivery on A2A Strategic Plan execution goes on
Key take-aways
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 15
This document has been prepared by A2A solely for investors and analysts. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe anyshares or other securities and neither it nor any part of it shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.Some information contained herein and other material discussed at the meetings may include forward-looking information based on A2A’s current beliefs andexpectations. These statements are based on current plans, estimates, projections, and projects and therefore you should not place undue reliance on them.Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. We caution you that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differmaterially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Such factors include, but are not limited to changes in global economic business, changes inthe price of certain commodities including electricity, gas and coal, the competitive market and regulatory factors. Moreover, forward-looking statements arecurrent only at the date on which they are made.