A2A Company Presentation · 2017-02-07 · A2A Company Presentation London, November 25th 2014....
Transcript of A2A Company Presentation · 2017-02-07 · A2A Company Presentation London, November 25th 2014....
A2A CompanyPresentation
London, November 25th 2014
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 2
Agenda
• Company profile
• Last release (9M’14)
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 3
A2A in a snapshot: balanced business mix with critical mass
COGENERATION &DISTRICT HEATING
WASTE
NETWORKS
ENERGY
EPCG
• 2nd in terms of renewable installed capacity (~2 GW)• 4th in terms of overall electricity production (~14 TWh)• 3rd in terms of gas portfolio (more than 2.4 Bcm)
• 1st in terms of heated volumes (~89 Mcm)
• 3rd in terms of waste collection (~1.2 Mton)• 1st in terms of WTE plants (the 3 largest in Italy)
• incumbent in Montenegro with 75% of renewablecapacity
• 2nd in terms of distributed electricity (11 TWh)• incumbent in 3 large gas distribution ATEMs, of which
Milan is the largest
• One of the most diversifieddomestic utilities in terms ofbusiness mix
• With leading positions inmost segments
• Committed to Sustainability
EnergyE = ElectricityG = Gas
Cogeneration &District Heating
Waste
Networks
Foreign activities
Listed Italian Local utilities - 2013 EBITDA
21.9% owned by A2A
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 4
COGENERATION& DISTRICT HEATING
Cogenerationplants
Networks
89 M€ 8%
WASTE
Collection
Treatment
255 M€ 22%
NETWORKS(EPCG included)
Water
Electricity networks
Gas networks
268 M€ 23%
ENERGY(EPCG included)
Fuel sourcing
Powergeneration
Whole-sale &Trading
540 M€ 47%
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
DisposalHeat/Electricitysale
Electricity/Gassale
Heat/Electricitysale
(1) Adjusted EBITDA, excluding costs of redundancy schemes (-25 €M), regulatory impacts (+24 €M) and EBITDA from “Other services & Corporate” (-18 €M)
Sources: AEEG and Company Annual Reports
A2A business portfolio
2013EBITDA(1)
About 50% of Group EBITDA from regulated activities/concessions orlong-term contracts and 30% from infrastructure operations
• Flexible business model which allows for optimizations both in the business units and across them
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
A2A asset portfolio
5
ITALY
UK
SPAIN GREECE
MONTENEGRO
FOREIGNACTIVITIES
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
A2A key strengths
6
CO
GE
NE
RA
TIO
N&
DIS
TR
IC
TH
EA
TIN
GW
AS
TE
NE
TW
OR
KS
EN
ER
GY
• Diversified and balanced generation mix
• More than 40% domestic renewable production in 2013
• Almost 90% of hydro flexible reservoir/basin vs. run-of-river
• High energy management skills and relevant market share in the Northern Zone
• Strong and balanced customer base ~ 2 m contracts
• Efficient customer care
• Presence in the 3 largest cities in Lombardy
• Long term contract schemes
• Strong ties with waste and energy
• Strong environmental benefits at local level
• High barrier to entry
• District cooling option
• Full integration along the value chain
• Strong ties with cogeneration
• Proven abilities to develop activities outside local footprint:successful management of Acerra plant
• Cross sector presence: electricity, gas, water and public lighting
• High service quality
• Good continuity of electricity and gas distribution services
• Focus on new technologies (e.g., smart grids)
EN
ER
GY
Lower risk from flexiblehydro and loyal customerbase
Upcoming rationalization
Potential from plantreconversion
# 1 in Italy for heatedvolumes
Best positioned to benefitfrom expected growth inan overall stable andpredictable business
One of the very few fullyintegrated operators
Significant, unexploitedand attractive growthpotential
Pioneer in led publiclighting network
Well positioned onforthcoming gas auctions
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
A2A strategic options
COGENERATION& DISTRICT
HEATING
WASTE
NETWORKS
ENERGY
EPCG
COST CUTTING
Generation Energy mgmt Retail
Commercial strategySources Networks
Collection Treatment & Disposal Industrial waste
Electricity distribution Gas distribution Integrated water service
Trading & commercial
Headcount Other fixed costsExternal costs
NetworksGeneration
ITALY
LOMBARDY
NORTHERNITALY
ITALY/ABROAD
• CCGT Restructuring• Plants reconversion
through integration withwaste business
• Energy Efficiency highvalue servicesdevelopment
• Public lighting expansion• Smart grid/ smart city
• Bidding for upcoming tenders(at least consolidation ofcurrent dimension)
• Potential integrationthrough M&A
• Increase inproductivity
• New cost cutting internal program (AXE 2.0)• "Best practices" cross fertilization among plants in
order to achieve best level of efficiency
• Third party sourcesconnection to DH network
• CCGT Cassano
• Milan and Bergamodevelopment
• Growth in higher marginsegments (i.e. SME),territories (Northern Italy)and energy efficiency
• Portfoliooptimization
• Environmental mkts
• Growth through M&A (bothcollection and treatment,focus on remediation)
• Boost in geographicalconsolidation/expansion
MONTENEGRO& BALKANS
• Existing plantsoptimization
• Potential new renewableplants
• Efficiency improvement • SME Market• Exploit interconnection
IT/MNE
• Lombardy WTE systemoptimization
• Recycling plants development• Plants development in
southern Italy
• Real estate optimization
GEOGRAPHICALAREAS
Lessconventionalenergy…
…moreenvironment/new energymarket player
7
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
8
Research and innovation projects
• E-Moving project - Among the testing being promoted by theAEEGSI.
Promoted by A2A
Electric car
• Smart Domo Grid: smart grid solution withdemand/response functionality
Co-financed by the Ministry of Economic Development and ledby A2A with the Polytechnic University of Milan and Whirlpool
• IDE4L (Ideal Grid for All) mainly focuses on electricalfunctionalities
Co-financed by the EU within the 7th Framework Program
• Work Force Management (WFM) system• Distribution Management System (DMS)Both developed by A2A
• Completing the district heating offer with a district coolingservice
Pilot project developed by A2A
Network managementInnovative primary substations
Smart house
District Cooling
Most of A2A R&D budget is dedicated to green projects
• Two smart grid pilot projects in Milan and Brescia
Approved by AEEGSI, pursuant to Resolution ARG/elt 39/10
Grid automation and distributed generation
Inertization of fly ash, using Biosilica, a secondary hand-raw material - produced from rice husk ash.Presented by the University of Brescia and developed at theBrescia WTE plant
ECOERGITE® – Fuel from waste
Ecoergite ® - patent by A2A Ambiente – is a very advancedform of refuse-derived fuel produced by a waste treatment plant.It can be used as a fuel for coal thermoeletric plants togetherwith coal (co-combustion) and for cement plants.
COSMOS-RICE project
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
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Strong commitment to Sustainability
• Customers
A2A Energia 1st in domestic
customer satisfaction among Italian
utilities based on an Italian Databank
survey
A2A Energia supports the self-
regulation protocol to protect
customers from unfair commercial
practices
• Suppliers 60% of verified suppliers have at least
one quality, environment or safety
certification
• Community Over 5.1 million euro to support the
community through sponsorships,
donations and grants to Group
Foundations
• Employees
59% Increase in training hours vs. 2012
(22 hours per person)
-5.5% in the frequency of injury in the
workplace vs. 2012
Environmental(2013 data)
Governance
Shift from dual to traditionalcorporate governance model inJune 2014:
from two boards composed of 23 members to
• Board of Directors - 12 members, whichinvested Chairman and CEO with broadexecutive powers
• Board of Statutory Advisors – 3 effectivemembers
This detailed framework clearly definesresponsibilities, facilitates effective andtimely decision making, provides for abalance of powers, and emphasizesthe central role of the Board ofDirectors
Top management compensationreduced by over 50% compared toold system
Group saving higher than 65%
• Green performance 42% of renewable production
Increases in separate waste collection of
6.2% in Milan and 6.8% in Bergamo
compared to 2012
Less than 1% of urban waste collected
disposed of in landfills
+30% in the number of water parameters
analyzed in the integrated water cycle
compared to 2012
• Emission performance
3.1 million tons of CO2 avoided by way of the
technologies used by A2A
-4% from 2012 the average factor of CO2
emissions for the Group, equal to 385 g/kWh
-27% in dioxides emitted by Group plant
(one hundredth of a gram) compared to 2012
• Energy efficiency
+4% from 2012 in volumes served by urban
district heating networks, now at 89.2 Mcm
Social(2013 data)
New Business Plan will identify ESG KPIs through external impact valuation
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
A2A 2013 Operating and financial highlights
10
(1) Group net income adjusted for the impact of extraordinary items: 2013 = 156€M; 2012 =116 €M; 2011 = 165 € M; 2010 = 243 €M
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
A2A 2013 Volumes
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* without Intermediated Ipex volumes
As of June 2012 Edipower production includes 77% of production of the plants managed in tolling regime and 100% of production of the S. Filippo del Mela, Turbigo(groups 1-2-3) and Brindisi thermoelectric plants and some hydroelectric and photovoltaic plants.As of November 2013 Tusciano and Turbigo productions are not included, while the quantities of the remaining Edipower plants are 100% of productionAs of January to May 2012, Edipower production includes 20% of production of the plants managed in tolling regime
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 12
Agenda
• Company profile
• Last release (9M’14)
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 13
Agenda
Main messages
9M 2014 Main financial highlights
Segment analysis
From EBITDA to net income
Net debt and cash flow
Major business achievements in the last few months
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
Main messages
14
• Positive contribution to 2014 results from Q3:
Stable Q3 Ebitda reduces 9M contraction
9M Net Profit now in line with 2013
Further significant debt reduction
• Negatives still outweigh positives at business level:
Negatives: electricity prices; thermal generation volumes; EPCG hydro slump;waste incentive expiry; reduction of heat volumes
Positives: strong domestic hydro production; trading and environmentalmarkets; gas portfolio optimization; networks resiliency; ongoing cost cutting
• Positives boost net profit:
Lower D&A after generation assets impairments in 2013
Lower provisions from more favorable risk profile
Lower debt service due to ongoing financial optimization
9M 2014 – MAIN MESSAGES
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
-56
15
NET SALES
EBITDA
€M
EBIT
9M 2013
3,632
783
419
4,080
839
407
9M 2014 Change Change %
-6.7%
-448
+12
-11.0%
+2.9%
2013 9M 2014 Change
NET CAPITALEMPLOYED
EQUITY
7,222
3,348
-348
+60
TOTAL NFP 3,874 -408
6,874
3,466
3,408
NET INCOME 159159 --
9M 2014 - Main financial highlights
KEY FACTS
Detailed afterwards
• Climate effects
• Negative marketprice/volume trend
• Positive OperatingEfficiency
• Expiry of CIP 6 revenues
1
2
3
n
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
Climate effects
MILANDAILY DEGREES
Dail
yD
eg
rees
YTD ∆ vs 2013: -28,1%
EPCG HYDRAULICITY
HYDRAULICITY
∆ 9M ‘13 VS AVG 10 YRS
EPCGHYDRO PRODUCTION
GWh
+724
∆ 9M ‘14 VS AVG 10 YRS
-84
16
BRESCIADAILY DEGREES
Dail
yD
eg
rees
YTD ∆ vs 2013: -31,8%
A2A HYDRAULICITY
HYDRAULICITY
∆ 9M ‘13 VS AVG 10 YRS
A2AHYDRO PRODUCTION
GWh
~+500
∆ 9M ‘14 VS AVG 10 YRS
~+1,450
Previous Year Current Year
NegativeClimateeffects
PositiveClimateeffects
1
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
Average data 9M 2013 9M 2014 Δ Δ % Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Δ Δ %
PUN baseload(1) €/MWh 62.2 49.8 -12.5 -20.0% 65.5 50.4 -15.1 -23.0%
PUN peak(1) €/MWh 68.6 55.3 -13.3 -19.4% 68.5 53.5 -15.0 -21.9%
PUN off-peak(1) €/MWh 58.7 46.7 -12.0 -20.4% 63.9 48.7 -15.2 -23.7%
Clean Spark spread vs Peakload(2) €/MWh 2.8 3.1 0.3 9.7% 2.3 5.0 2.7 n.s.
Clean Spark spread vs Baseload(2) €/MWh -3.6 -2.4 1.1 31.7% -0.7 1.8 2.4 n.s.
Clean Dark Spread vs Baseload (3) €/MWh 21.7 11.3 -10.4 -48.1% 25.6 11.3 -14.3 -55.9%
CCGT load factor(4)
- North zone % 17.3 12.9 -4.4 -25.5% 18.6 14.5 -4.2 -22.4%
- South zone % 17.1 14.1 -3.0 -17.7% 23.8 18.4 -5.4 -22.7%
Coal load factor
- North zone % 59.6 49.2 -10.4 -17.4% 49.7 46.1 -3.6 -7.1%
Italian electricity demand(5) TWh 239.0 231.8 -7.2 -3.0% 80.9 78.1 -2.8 -3.5%
17
Market price/volume trend
(1) hourly average; (2) 53% efficiency – spread between energy prices and gas cost at virtual trading point (transport cost included); (3) 35% efficiency – spread between energy pricesand API2 coal cost (transport cost included); (4) load factor related to CCGT merchant plants; (5) data subject to update by Terna
Strong decrease in PUN
PRICES
2
MARGINS
QUANTITIES
PRICES
MARGINS
QUANTITIES
Ongoing Dark Spread reduction
Gas plant margins still at low levels
Continuing decrease in Electricitydemand, impacting thermal Load Factors
SOME CRITICAL FACTORS… …PARTIALLY OFFSET BY HIGHER HYDRO PRODUCTION
9M 2013TWh 9M 2014
9M Q3
ITALIANHYDRO
PRODUCTION42.0 +10%
9M 2014 ENERGY SCENARIO
∆ % Q3 2013 Q3 2014 ∆ %
46.2 14.0 +14.2%15.9
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
9M 2013
426
Change inperimeter
-13
Net savings
-17
9M 2014
396
9M 2013
514
Other costs
-14
Change inperimeter
-1
Net savings
-4
9M 2014
495
9M 2013
12,609
Change inperimeter
-30
Net reduction
-245
9M 2014
12,334
18
9M 2014 OPERATING EFFICIENCY
FTE(1)
LABOURCOSTS (€M)
OTHERFIXED
COSTS (€M)
• Waste new tenders+103 FTE
• Tusciano andTurbigo plantsdisposal -133 FTE
• A2A -167 FTE
• EPCG -78 FTE
• Of which costs ofredundancyschemes -13
• Waste new tenders+4.6
• Tusciano andTurbigo plantsdisposal -5.9
• FTE reduction -8.7
• Contract renewals +7.0
• Mix effect -2.4
-30
-19
-275
Operating Efficiency3
More than 20 €Mnet savings in 9M2014 compared to9M 2013, in linewith H1 savingslevel despite ~6€Mincrease in non-compressiblecosts registered inQ3
(1) A2A Group’s Full Time Equivalent
• Tusciano andTurbigo plantsdisposal
• Of which thermoelectricplants O&M -14
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
EBITDA9M 2013
EBITDA9M 2014
∆ vs 2013
ELECTRICITY 296 283 -13
GAS 56 76 20
ENERGY 352 359 7
WASTE 190 165 -25
COGENERATION AND
DISTRICT HEATING51 34 -17
NETWORKS 195 208 13
OTHER SERVICES AND
CORPORATE-15 -15 0
EPCG 65 42 -23
TOTAL ADJUSTED EBITDA 838 793 -45
Costs of redundancy schemes -23 -10 13
AEEGSI OPINION 535/12 24 -24
TOTAL EBITDA 839 783 -56
Lower hydraulicity (-26)
Higher Electricity allowed revenues (+20, of which +8
related to current year and +12 related to previous years)
Lower Gas allowed revenues (-5)
KEY POINTS
Gas portfolio optimization
Higher environmental markets margin (+6)
Network and customer development (+2)
Lower sales due to climate effect (-20)
Non current items (-5)
Exipiry of Cip6 revenues - Brescia WTE plant (-24)
Higher environmental markets (+46)
Trading portfolio margin (+4)
Industrial portfolio margin (-63)
€M
9M 2014 vs 9M 2013 - EBITDA breakdown
19
(1) (2)
(1) of which 95€M Electricity Networks, 85€M Gas Networks, 10€M IWC
(2) of which 114€M Electricity Networks, 80€M Gas Networks, 12€M IWC
(3) of which 54€M Energy, 8€M Electricity Networks
(4) of which 28€M Energy, 13€M Electricity Networks
(3) (4)
Note: 9M 2014 costs of redundancy schemes entirely related to Energy segment
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 20
9M 2014 - From EBITDA to net income (1/2)
9M2013 9M2014Δ vs 9M
2013Key points
EBITDA 839 783 -56
D&A, provisionsand write-downs
-432 -364 +68
Financial charges -167 -134 +33
Associates,JV and others
8 -1
EBIT 407 419
Result from non-recurring transactions 17 11
7
+12
-6
€M
Depreciation (+17)
• Bad debt provision (+23)
• Provision for risks (+28)
Derivatives FV 25 -5 -30 Decrease in interest rates
Acsm-Agam (-2)
Others (+1)
Net financial charges (+32)
Derivatives realized (+1)
9M 2014 Dolomiti Energia vs Edipowershare swap (+12)
9M 2013 Small hydroelectric plantscapital gain (-23)
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 21
9M 2014 - From EBITDA to net income (2/2)
9M2013 9M2014Δ vs 9M
2013Key points
EBT 290 298 +8
MINORITIES -13 -12 +1
TAXES -118 -127 -9
€M
NET INCOME 159 159 -
IFRS 5 - - -
Epcg
Deferred tax assets - Irap redefinition (-4)
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
NFP31/12/2013
-3,874
Netprofit+D&A
+503
Changein
Assets/
Liabilities
+212
Capex
-205
Dividends
-102
NFP30/09/2014
-3,466
9M 2014 - Net debt and cash flow
22
A2A GROUP NET FINANCIAL POSITION EVOLUTION 2013-9M2014 (€M)
+408 €M
• Networks 77€M
• Cogeneration andDistrict Heating 44€M
• Waste 32€M
• Energy 28€M
• EPCG 18€M
• Corporate 6€M
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
31/12/12
4,372
31/3/13
4,238
30/6/13
4,074
30/9/13
4,048
31/12/13
3,874
31/3/14
3,721
30/6/14
3,572
30/9/14
3,466
-135-164
-26-174
-153
ExtraordinaryOperations Metroweb disposal (61€M) Small Hydro disposal (38€M) Enel/A2A lawsuit settlement (90€M)
23
Continued Deleveraging
2012-2014 NFP EVOLUTION (€M)
-906
-149-106
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
26%
74%
29%
14%
57%47%
22%
22%
2%3%
4%
24
9M 2014 - A2A Group debt structure
9M 2014 GROSS DEBT - 3.9 €B
DEBT BREAKDOWN
BY SOURCES
DEBT BREAKDOWN
BY INTEREST
Note: EPCG not included; gross debt financial data and breakdown, excluding accounting adjustments(*) Average forward rate, based on interest rate curves as of 30/9/2014
LIQUIDITY POSITION
AVERAGE RATE* (%) ~4.0% ~3.8%
FY 2013 9M 2014
AVERAGE MATURITY (yrs) 6.0 5.7
24
LoansBond VariableFixed Hedged
DEBT BREAKDOWN
BY MATURITY
Within 2015
2018
2016
2019
2017
Beyond 2019
2.0 €B liquidity position, of which:
0.5 €B cash
1.5 €B undrawn loans and longer-than-12-months revolving committed lines with averagematurity of 2.6 years
CORPORATE CREDIT RATINGS
Moody's: Baa3, Stable Outlook
Standard & Poor’s: BBB/A-2, NegativeOutlook
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
Major business achievements in the last few months
25
• Hydro developments capex eligible for Green Certificates on stream in Somplago (Udine)
• At the end of June, green electricity agreement signed with Telecom Italia for the next two years
COGENERATION& DISTRICT
HEATING
WASTE
NETWORKS
ENERGY
• New collection concessions awarded in 2014 and other concessions confirmed in Milan area
• Completion of one of the largest collection programs across Europe for organic sorting in Milan
• Start-up of the glass selection and treatment plant of Asti in July 2014
• Patent of a new product made from waste: “Ecoergite”
• Significant emissions reduction targets achieved in the Acerra Waste-to-Energy plant
• Further network expansion in Milan and Bergamo. Completion of west feeder (5 km) in Milan
• New agreements recently signed with third parties to buy “waste heat” deriving from industrial processes(e.g. steel factories)
• Started at the end of October the construction of a new solar thermal plant for District Heating in the cityof Varese
• By August 2015, all the public lighting of the city of Milan will be ensured by innovative LEDtechnology
• A similar project will be developed in the city of Brescia in the next few months
• Investment in the integrated water cycle of Brescia to further improve the quality of water distributed (e.g.,Chrome VI)
EPCG
• Account receivables collection close to 98% (from 93.8%)
• HPPs: Perućica efficiency increased and recovery of nominal capacity; first part of Piva modernization
• Distribution losses reduced to 16% (from 17.6%)
• 165,000 smart meters installed
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
Back-up
26
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent.
Q3 2013
229
Energy
4
-12
4 3
-1
EPCG
5
Q3 2014
232
Waste Cogeneration
andDistrict Heating
Networks Corporate
Focus on Q3 performance
27
9M 2013
229
610
839
H1
-59
Q3
3
9M 2014
232
551
783
H1
Q3
+3
-56
9M EBITDA ANALYSIS (€M)
Q3 EBITDA ANALYSIS (€M)
• 9M 2014 Ebitda equal to 783 €M,56 €M lower than the same period ofthe previous year, of which:
-59 €M recorded in H1, reflectinglower margins due to negativeclimate effects, unfavourableEnergy markets scenario and expiryof CIP6 revenues
+3 €M recorded in Q3
• Environmentalmarkets +14
• Gas portfoliooptimization +10
• Electricity Industrialportfolio -18
• Trading portfolio -2
• Expiry of CIP6revenues -7
• Industrialperformance -5,mainly due toAcerra WTEplant halt
• Of whichEnvironmentalmarkets +2
• Electricity Networks +6
• Gas Networks -3
• Positive contribution from corebusiness activities in Q3, offsettingthe same negative dynamics alreadyrecorded in H1 related to Wasteincentive expiry, negative Energymarket price and volume trend
Higherhydraulicity
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 28
9M 2014 - Energy Scenario
(1) Gas at virtual trading point(2) QE 263/12 Jan 2013-Mar 2013; QE 124/13 Apr 2013-Oct 2013; Pfor 196/13 Oct 2013-Sep 2014(3) hourly average(4) based on gas at virtual trading point with 53% efficiency (transport cost included)(5) 35% efficiency – spread between energy prices and API2 coal cost (transport cost included)(6) load factor related to CCGT merchant plants(7) data subject to update by Terna
Average data H1 2013 H1 2014 Δ Δ % Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Δ Δ % 9M 2013 9M 2014 Δ Δ %
Brent $/bbl 108.0 108.8 0.8 0.8% 109.7 103.4 -6.2 -5.7% 108.5 107.0 -1.5 -1.4%
CO2 - EU ETS cost €/Tonn 4.3 5.7 1.3 30.4% 4.7 6.1 1.5 31.4% 4.4 5.8 1.4 30.9%
Green Certificates €/MWh 80.5 91.9 11.4 14.1% 84.5 96.7 12.2 14.4% 81.9 93.5 11.6 14.2%
€/$ €/$ 1.310 1.370 0.1 4.6% 1.320 1.330 0.0 0.8% 1.320 1.360 0.0 3.0%
Brent € €/bbl 82.2 79.4 -2.8 -3.4% 82.8 78.0 -4.8 -5.8% 82.4 78.9 -3.5 -4.2%
PSV(1) €/MWh 27.7 23.2 -4.6 -16.5% 27.7 20.5 -7.2 -26.0% 27.7 22.3 -5.5 -19.7%
AEEGSI Gas Tariff(2) c€/mc 36.4 27.9 -8.6 -23.5% 34.4 21.3 -13.1 -38.1% 35.7 25.7 -10.1 -28.2%
Coal € (API2) €/Tonn 63.3 55.9 -7.4 -11.6% 57.8 56.9 -1.0 -1.7% 61.5 56.2 -5.2 -8.5%
PUN baseload(3) €/MWh 60.6 49.5 -11.1 -18.4% 65.5 50.4 -15.1 -23.0% 62.2 49.8 -12.5 -20.0%
PUN peak(3) €/MWh 68.7 56.3 -12.4 -18.1% 68.5 53.5 -15.0 -21.9% 68.6 55.3 -13.3 -19.4%
PUN off-peak(3) €/MWh 56.1 45.7 -10.4 -18.5% 63.9 48.7 -15.2 -23.7% 58.7 46.7 -12.0 -20.4%
CCGT gas cost(4) €/MWh 59.9 49.6 -10.4 -17.3% 60.2 44.0 -16.2 -26.8% 60.0 47.7 -12.3 -20.5%
Clean Spark spread vs Peakload €/MWh 3.0 2.3 -0.8 -24.8% 2.3 5.0 2.7 n.s. 2.8 3.1 0.3 9.7%
Clean Spark spread vs Baseload €/MWh -5.0 -4.5 0.5 9.6% -0.7 1.8 2.4 n.s. -3.6 -2.4 1.1 31.7%
Clean Dark Spread vs Baseload(5) €/MWh 18.9 11.3 -7.6 -40.1% 25.6 11.3 -14.3 -55.9% 21.7 11.3 -10.4 -48.1%
CCGT load factor(6)
- North zone % 16.7 12.1 -4.6 -27.5% 18.6 14.5 -4.2 -22.4% 17.3 12.9 -4.4 -25.5%
- South zone % 13.8 11.9 -1.9 -13.8% 23.8 18.4 -5.4 -22.7% 17.1 14.1 -3.0 -17.7%
Coal load factor
- North zone % 64.6 50.8 -13.8 -21.4% 49.7 46.1 -3.6 -7.1% 59.6 49.2 -10.4 -17.4%
- South zone % 43.5 56.1 12.6 29.0% 58.4 53.9 -4.5 -7.8% 48.5 55.3 6.8 14.0%
Italian electricity demand(7) TWh 158.1 153.7 -4.4 -2.8% 80.9 78.1 -3 -3.5% 239.0 231.8 -7.2 -3.0%
Gas demand bcm 37.0 32.3 -4.7 -12.7% 11.1 10.8 -0.3 -2.4% 48.0 43.2 -4.8 -10.1%
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 29
*
* without Intermediated Ipex volumes
In 2013 Edipower production includes 77% of production of the plants managed in tolling regime and 100% of production of the S. Filippo del Mela, Turbigo (groups 1-2-3) and Brindisithermoelectric plants and some hydroelectric and photovoltaic plants.In 2014 Tusciano and Turbigo productions are not included, while the quantities of the remaining Edipower plants are 100% of production.
9M 2014 - A2A Volumes
H1 2013 H1 2014 D D% 3Q 2013 3Q 2014 D D% 9M 2013 9M 2014 D D%
A2A Group Thermal production GWh 4,040 3,247 793- -20% 2,380 1,577 803- -34% 6,420 4,824 -1,596 -25%
of which
CCGT production GWh 1,950 1,181 770- -39% 986 462 524- -53% 2,936 1,642 -1,294 -44%
Coal production GWh 1,136 835 301- -26% 581 397 184- -32% 1,717 1,232 -485 -28%
Oil production GWh 431 641 210 49% 417 326 91- -22% 848 967 119 14%
EPCG production GWh 522 590 68 13% 397 393 4- -1% 919 983 64 7%
A2A Group Hydro production GWh 4,172 3,915 258- -6% 1,471 2,012 541 37% 5,643 5,927 284 5%of which
A2A and Edipower production GWh 2,412 3,044 632 26% 1,262 1,723 461 37% 3,674 4,767 1,093 30%
EPCG production GWh 1,760 870 890- -51% 209 289 80 38% 1,969 1,160 -810 -41%
Eligibles and wholesale electric ity sales GWh 14,728 19,282 4,555 31% 9,295 9,011 284- -3% 24,022 28,293 4,271 18%
Captive customers electricity sales GWh 1,381 1,206 174- -13% 626 526 100- -16% 2,007 1,732 -275 -14%
Ipex sales GWh 3,097 4,198 1,101 36% 1,994 1,053 941- -47% 5,091 5,251 160 3%
Electricity sales to EPCG customers GWh 1,226 1,336 110 9% 728 690 38- -5% 1,955 2,026 72 4%
Gas sales Mmc 1,294 1,457 162 13% 354 612 258 73% 1,648 2,068 420 25%
Heat volumes sales GWht 1,471 1,149 322- -22% 97 100 3 3% 1,568 1,249 -319 -20%
Cogeneration electricity sales GWh 191 153 38- -20% 5 4 2- -30% 196 157 -39 -20%
Cogeneration plants heat production GWht 813 579 234- -29% 52 69 17 33% 865 648 -217 -25%
Collected waste Kton 460 465 5 1% 201 211 10 5% 661 676 15 2%
Waste disposal Kton 1,284 1,276 8- -1% 591 615 24 4% 1,875 1,891 16 1%
WTE electricity production GWh 557 557 0 0% 274 274 1- 0% 831 830 -1 0%
WTE heat production GWht 646 564 82- -13% 92 103 11 11% 738 667 -71 -10%
Electricity distributed GWh 5,533 5,405 128- -2% 2,769 2,661 107- -4% 8,301 8,066 -235 -3%
EPCG Electric ity distributed GWh 1,274 1,207 67- -5% 623 603 20- -3% 1,897 1,810 -87 -5%
Gas distributed Mmc 1,227 1,020 207- -17% 138 119 19- -14% 1,365 1,139 -226 -17%
Water distributed Mmc 32 30 2- -6% 16 16 1- -3% 48 45 -3 -5%
This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 30
DISCLAIMER - This document has been prepared by A2A solely for investors and analysts. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe any shares or other securities and neither it nor anypart of it shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Some information contained herein and other material discussed at the meetings may include forward-lookinginformation based on A2A’s current beliefs and expectations. These statements are based on current plans, estimates, projections, and projects and therefore you should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-lookingstatements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. We caution you that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Such factorsinclude, but are not limited to: changes in global economic business, changes in the price of certain commodities including electricity, gas and coal, the competitive market and regulatory factors. Moreover, forward-lookingstatements are current only at the date they are made.
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