A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality
description
Transcript of A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality
![Page 1: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A zone design approach A zone design approach for investigating inequalities for investigating inequalities
in infant mortalityin infant mortality
Konstantinos Daras (University of East Anglia)
Seraphim Alvanides (University of Newcastle)
Ian Gregory (Queen's University Belfast)
3rd International Population Geographies Conference
19 -21 June 2006, Liverpool, UK
![Page 2: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
The Geography of Infant Mortality The Geography of Infant Mortality in England & Wales (1911-1971)in England & Wales (1911-1971)
Was there a north-south divide?
Looking at inequalities: Between urban/rural LGDs Between/within counties Between/within automated zones
![Page 3: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
Infant mortality: Deaths before 1st birthday per 1,000 live births
•Social class •Urban/rural
•Low income•Overcrowded•Unhygienic
Infant mortality is related to:
![Page 4: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Infant Mortality Rates Infant Mortality Rates in England and Wales (1840-1970) in England and Wales (1840-1970)
Wo
rld
Wa
r I
Wo
rld
Wa
r II
(Source: Beaver (1973): p. 244)
![Page 5: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Decline of Infant Mortality Decline of Infant Mortality
Conventional explanations: Cities had high rates because of rapid urban growth Lower rates were driven by improvements in
sanitary conditions in towns and by better health care.
Improvements started simultaneously across the whole country in the 1880s.
After Woods et al (1988 & ’89); Lee (1991); Williams and Galley (1995); Woods (1997)
![Page 6: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Data sources (1)Data sources (1)
The Great Britain Historical GIS (Gregory and Southall, 1998)
1911: 2061 Local Gov. Districts 1928: 2037 Local Gov. Districts 1951: 1527 Local Gov. Districts 1971: 1419 Local Gov. Districts
(Data aggregated to 1971 level)
Infant deaths (before 1st birthday)
Infant births Estimated population Urban/rural classification
![Page 7: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Data sources (2)Data sources (2)
Wo
rld
Wa
r I
Wo
rld
Wa
r II
(Sou
rce:
Bea
ver
(197
3):
p. 2
44)
1881
1928
1931
1911
1951
1971
Available datasets
Phases of inequality change according Lee (1991)
![Page 8: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Measuring InequalitiesMeasuring Inequalities
Gini coefficient Coefficient of variation Variance of logarithms Theil’s entropy index
•Between areas inequalities: Gini coefficient of areas•Within areas inequalities:
N
Ga Ga: Gini coefficient of area aN : number of areas
![Page 9: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Zone DesignZone Design
Aggregation of areal units into zones, so that certain criteria are satisfied.
Available zone design systems AZP (no GIS): Openshaw (1977, 1984) ZDES: Alvanides et al. (1999, 2000) AZM: Martin (2002) A2Z: Daras (2005), O-O & Graph theory
![Page 10: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
How A2Z worksHow A2Z works
ZONE 1ZONE 2
AREAL UNIT
NEW ZONE 2
NEW ZONE 1
OB
JEC
TIV
E F
UN
CT
ION C
ON
TIG
UIT
Y C
HE
CK
• Optimises an objective functionOptimises an objective function• Controls the contiguity of zoneControls the contiguity of zone
![Page 11: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
A2Z componentsA2Z components
Initial AggregationInitial Aggregation ( (Random or userRandom or user))
Shape ConstraintsShape Constraints (Weak or Strong compactness(Weak or Strong compactness))
Boundary ConstraintsBoundary Constraints ( (Railway, A road, WardsRailway, A road, Wards))
Objective FunctionObjective Function ( (HomogeneityHomogeneity))
![Page 12: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Zone design settingsZone design settings
62 output zones
Random initial aggregation
Weak shape constraint
Dataset <year>
Objective FunctionSimilarity
Infant MortalityZO
NE
DE
SIG
N
Output Zone M<year>
Dataset <year>
Objective Function Similarity
PopulationZO
NE
DE
SIG
N
Output Zone P<year>
Target IM patterns Target Urban/Rural zones
![Page 13: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Infant Mortality RatesInfant Mortality Rates((LGD levelLGD level))
LRDs (1928)0 - 3333 - 6464 - 112112 - 333
LGDs (1928) LRDs (1951)0 - 1818 - 3434 - 5656 - 136
LGDs (1951) LRDs (1971)0 - 88 - 1818 - 3131 - 77
LGDs (1971)
LRDs (1911)0 - 7373 - 116116 - 165165 - 353
LGDs (1911)
![Page 14: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Between LGDs inequalitiesBetween LGDs inequalities
0.19
0.2
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.27
1911 1928 1951 1971
Year
Gin
i co
effi
cien
t
All
Urban
Rural
![Page 15: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
1911 Counties58 - 9393 - 111111 - 130130 - 154
1928 Counties38 - 4848 - 5858 - 6868 - 92
1951 Counties18 - 2626 - 2929 - 3434 - 55
1971 Counties7 - 1515 - 1717 - 1919 - 26
Infant Mortality RatesInfant Mortality Rates((County levelCounty level))
![Page 16: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Output zones (1911)62 - 9595 - 114114 - 146146 - 174
Output zones (1928)0 - 3333 - 5656 - 7575 - 92
Output zones (1951)14 - 2525 - 3131 - 4040 - 51
Output zones (1971)6 - 1010 - 1616 - 2020 - 29
Infant Mortality RatesInfant Mortality Rates((output zones based on output zones based on the similarity of IMRthe similarity of IMR))
![Page 17: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Output Zones (1911)77 - 9999 - 123123 - 143143 - 168
Output Zones (1928)77 - 5656 - 6868 - 87
Output Zones (1951)18 - 2424 - 2929 - 3535 - 45
Output Zones (1971)0 - 77 - 1616 - 2020 - 28
Infant Mortality RatesInfant Mortality Rates((output zones based on output zones based on
the similarity of populationthe similarity of population))
![Page 18: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Between areas inequalityBetween areas inequality
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
1911 1928 1951 1971
Year
Gin
i co
effi
cien
t
County
Inf. Zone
Pop. Zone
![Page 19: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Within areas inequalityWithin areas inequality
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.2
0.21
0.22
0.23
1911 1928 1951 1971
Year
Gin
i co
effi
cien
t
County
Inf. Zone
Pop. Zone
![Page 20: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Summary (1)Summary (1)
There has been a steady decline in infant mortality since the 1900s
This masks some complex geographical variations: Between urban area inequalities remained fairly constant
in 1928 and 1951 Between rural area inequalities increased throughout the
study period The automated zones suggest a decline of inequalities in
1951, while the counties record such reduction in 1971 Possible explanation: at period 1928 -1951 urban
inequalities remain steady because of better health care.
![Page 21: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Summary (2)Summary (2)
Traditional descriptions and explanations of these are limited and over-simplified
This method allows comprehensive description but does not provide explanation
Zone design can provide a useful tool for highlighting problems.
![Page 22: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Further researchFurther research
North/South divide: 1911- 2001 Automated zones (2 zones)
Further investigation of 1928 – 1951 period- - - - -
Different aggregation levels (scale) Extend the analysis of IM inequalities
on annually data 1911-2001 Any available socio-economic data
(possible explanations).
![Page 23: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
A zone design approach A zone design approach for investigating inequalities for investigating inequalities
in infant mortalityin infant mortality
Konstantinos Daras ([email protected])
Seraphim Alvanides ([email protected])
Ian Gregory ([email protected])
3rd International Population Geographies Conference
19 -21 June 2006, Liverpool, UK
![Page 24: A zone design approach for investigating inequalities in infant mortality](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062423/56814541550346895db20a8f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)