A View of The Public Ophthalmology Market & Exit Trends
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Transcript of A View of The Public Ophthalmology Market & Exit Trends
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a
A View of the Public Markets & Exit TrendsJoe Gilliam, Managing DirectorHealthcare Investment Banking
J.P. Morgan
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
10%
15%
39%
23%
5%
2%
Healthcare
Healthcare sector performance 2016YTD
#1 #2 #1 #1 #2 #5Sectorperformance
Source: FactSet as of 09/23/16 1
Healthcare sector returns have been exceptional…
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… until the late 2015-2016 pullback…
Energy
Telecom
Utilities
Info. Technology
Materials
Industrials
Transportation
Consumer Staples
Consumer Disc.
Healthcare
Financials
S&P 500
16.0%
13.8%
13.1%
11.1%
9.6%
8.9%
7.6%
5.4%
2.4%
0.1%
(0.3%)
6.1% HMOMedtechS&P HCCROFacilitiesPharmaBiotech
(NBI)
25.7%
10.9%
1.9% 3.5%
(6.9%)
(13.0%)(11.4%)
2016YTD healthcare subsector performance 2016YTD S&P sector performance
2Source: FactSet, as of 09/30/16
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Source: EPFR Global as of 10/04/20163
Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16(20)
0
20
$5
($1)
($13)($11)
($3)
Healthcare fund flows ($bn)
… leading to fund outflows
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
50.5
32.5
22.3 27.1
33.6 31.4
48.4 50.3
14.4
25.1 28.9
31.6 29.8
47.5
64.4
97.1
20.4
As a result healthcare public equity offerings have slowed significantly since peaking in 2015…
Equity offering volume ($bn)
26.4% 4.7% 20.5% 15.9% 15.1% 5.6% 43.4% 18.6% 30.0% 14.3%% IPOs 21.8% 10.5% 15.7%26.5%32.6%22.7%22.5%
Source: Dealogic
4
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…and a substantial revaluing of biotech IPOs has occurred…
Post-money market cap at IPO ($mm) Proceeds raised ($mm) Valuation step-up at IPO
$81mm$61mm
$159mm
$92mm
$117mm
$75mm
1.5x
0.8x
2.8x
1.2x1.8x
1.0x
25th percentile
75th percentile
Median
January – August 2015 (n = 24) September 2015 – August 2016 (n = 29)
(39%) (47%)
$210mm $198mm
$557mm
$449mm
$390mm
$293mm
(25%)
Source: Company filings, Dealogic, Pitchbook as of 09/30/2016 for biotech IPOs >$50mm
5
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2015 2016 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
32% 32%18%
29% 27%
59%
33% 36%
15%
39%
62%
41%
44%
31%
36%
67% 60%
70%
29%
5%
41%27%
42%
5% 4%
15%
Below
Within
Above
… but after the sustained lull, IPO activity & performance levels have begun to pick up
Above/Below/Within filing range1
6
Source: Dealogic, Bloomberg and FactSet as of 09/16/16. Excludes deals <$50mm, CLEFS, SPACs. Median Offer/30-day represents offer/current for those IPOs that have not reached 30 days 1 By number of deals. Note: 6 SPAC IPOs have priced in 2016YTD for $2.0bn in total proceeds
Offer/30-day% above offer
41% 82% 32% 40% 31% 64% 100% 80% 77%13% 5% 9% 15% 10% 16% 16% 1% 25%
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Putting the pullback in context for biotech…
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
122%
907%
Biotech indices (BTK and NBI) vs S&P 500 since 1997
Source: FactSet as of 09/19/2016
StagnationThe Genomics
revolutionA volatile
marketBiotech needs
to deliverGaining
momentumInnovation rewarded
A volatile market
2,740% increase over
time to peak
BTK NBI S&P500
7
Feb. trough(40%) / 209
1978%
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… and Medtech
FV / EBITDA FV / EBITDA FV / Revenue
10.1x 10.3x
5.0x
12.9x
12.1x
4.6x
14.0x
13.1x
4.3x
Historical (2011-2015 avg) 2015 Avg Current (Last 1-month avg)
Median forward multiplesStock price performance since Aug 2015
Large cap Mid cap Small cap
Source: J.P. Morgan; Dealogic and FactSet as of 08/19/2016Large-cap medtech index includes JNJ, MDT, ABT, SYK, BDX, BSX, BAX, ISRG, ZMH, EW, SN-GB, BCR, HOLX;Mid-cap medtech index includes XRAY, TFX, STE, HRC, CMN, GMED, IART, NUVA, MASI, HAE, HYH, CNMD, MMSI;High-growth medtech index includes PODD, WMGI, NVRO, NXTM, ELGX, SPNC, INGN, MDXG, XENT, GKOS, NVDQ, KTWO, CFMS, TNDM, ENTL, GI
08/15 10/15 01/16 03/16 06/16 08/16
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
4.4%5.0%
12.2%15.5%
Mid Cap Medtech Small Cap MedtechS&P 500 Large Cap Medtech
8
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2 year performance of ophthalmic sector participants
Relative stock price performance
+8% +118% +25% +15% +14%Source: FactSet as of 10/06/161 Ophth index includes Aerie, Alimera, Avalanche, Clearside, Cooper, Eleven, Glaukos, Inotek, Ocular, Ophthotech, QLT, Santen, Spark, STAAR and ThromboGenics2 Diversified / Ophth includes Abbott, Allergan, Bayer, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Shire and Valeant3 Return since June 2015 IPO
3
9
Oct-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-1680%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140% S&P 500 Ophth Diversified / Ophth
1
212%
10%
(9%)
2
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Ophthalmology IPO activity
2006 2008 2010 2014 2016
(withdrawn)04/21/10
$72 / $34207/06/06
€35 / €103
2012
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016YTD
7493
931
65 50 39
83
157 144
66
Healthcare IPOs priced / year (2006 to present)1
Source: Dealogic, FactSet, Company filings1 Includes global healthcare IPOs >$15mm
Date priced / Size / Market value at IPO (in $ millions):
(withdrawn)
09/24/13$192 / $687
10/25/13$67 / $228
07/24/14$75 / $267
07/30/14$117 / $363
02/05/14$57 / $154
06/24/15$124 / $563
01/29/15$185 / $540
02/17/15$40 / $95
10
06/01/16$50 / $150
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M&A has remained the primary exit path for Medtech while biopharma M&A activity has picked up with cooling IPO market
M&A transactions 2006 – 2016YTD
Source: Dealogic, EvaluatePharma, press releases, public filingsNote: Based on US targets only and excludes deals <$50mm
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016YTD0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3427 27
23 25 28
1721
18
36
25
49 51
32 36
53 5245 46
5046
31
Biopharma Medtech
2015 – 2016YTD ophthalmology M&A
September ‘15 $300mm + undisclosed contingent
11
September ‘16 $4,325mm
$225mm + undisclosed contingentJuly ‘16
February ‘16 Undisclosed terms
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